环境影响决策

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战争也结束了

2
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美股也创了新高了

3
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熬过来的兄弟们都已经可以扬眉吐气了

4
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实际上4月5号我正好在安纳海姆做了场直播

5
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当时呢就想让很多国内的兄弟们看一下

6
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美国的实际的生活场景啊

7
00:00:16,429 --> 00:00:17,149
我刚才直播的时候

8
00:00:17,149 --> 00:00:18,890
我还专门强调了一下

9
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你在什么环境下

10
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你看到了什么东西

11
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就像这一次美日战争一样

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很多人说啊

13
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美国会限制战争的泥潭

14
00:00:26,989 --> 00:00:28,589
我4月5号拍了个视频啊

15
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现在还在啊

16
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你可以看一下

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然后我跟我儿子打赌

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我一个月内结束战斗

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当时我给的观点是什么呢

20
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我说第一个呢美国他能花几亿美金去伊朗内部

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就一个飞行员

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伊朗呢一点辙都没有

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证明什么呢

24
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美国的军事实力很强大

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伊朗内部已经完全空虚了

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那第二个呢美国老百

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伊朗老百姓没有一个希望

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这个哈梅内伊这个政权能赢的

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就革命卫队能赢的

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第三个呢

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美国呢借这个机会呢

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又反复强调了什么叫精神啊

33
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什么叫精神呢

34
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就是不放弃任何一个人的凝聚力

35
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部队的作战能力

36
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实际上这个战争啊打的一股士气

37
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这个劲儿没了就完了

38
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就像我们小时候学那个文言文啊

39
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一鼓作气再而衰

40
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三埃及啊

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我不知道多少人

42
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为什么支持伊朗这个流氓政权啊

43
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伊朗老百姓很可怜

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但伊朗这个政权使不足气

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因为他太邪恶了

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对就这个杀了太多老百姓了

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但凡有抵抗能力的全部干掉了

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所以这次妥协呢实际上就是因为美国的军事啊

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轰炸机绕了一圈

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立马就投降

51
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哎那油呢倒出来

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国外交出来

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代价呢就是解除一部分冻结资金

54
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实际上这个结果啊

55
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美国这么多年

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这一次付出代价最少只是解冻资金

57
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不是补仓啊

58
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啊霍尔木兹海峡已经全面开通了

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你们可以看一下我的4月5号那几天拍的视频

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包括我的所有的直播

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当时讲的很清楚对吧

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第一个税浴中心各位亏了四个月

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五个月四天全部涨回来

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基本上都盈利了

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第二个这些跌得惨的消费股对吧

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德卡洛斯德克士户外全部涨回来

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第三个啊

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即使前期啊一些这个看起来走势不好的

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CH全部涨回来

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全面盈利

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嘿嘿嘿嘿嘿

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很多人啊

73
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我给大家讲啊

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挣不到钱啊

75
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真的跟自己眼光有关系

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真的是这样的

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所以这个事件呢划分会越来越严重啊

78
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就是这是一个差距越来越大的时代

79
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实际上这一次呢我也更加确信了一点啊

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就是我做了几个正确的选择啊

81
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首先第一个来美国

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这是绝对正确选择啊

83
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要不然的话我不会啊体验那么深刻啊

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特别是纪念这个投资难度这么大的情况下呃

85
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这个盈利难度比往往年大得多得多

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那首先呢就是你必须有

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对这个世界的一个判断力

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对方向对未来的趋势你必须有很清晰的判断

89
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如果没有的话

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你是很难get到这个点的

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那第二个呢就是远离人群啊

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这个也是我认为这两年做的最正确的

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就是基本上不和人交流啊

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基本上我就带着这个狗到处转一转

95
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想一想对吧

96
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就和后一群人聊啊

97
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实际上我觉得我很幸运

98
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哪一点呢

99
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就99%的人呢是听懂了的对吧

100
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至于百分之人听不懂

101
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其实也无所谓是吧

102
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包括这个很多人还在嘲笑我啊

103
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说这个哈光模块啥怎么样的

104
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各位我给大家打个赌啊

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最终在光模块上亏钱的人

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包括现在充电厂的人和抢房的

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20年都会抢房子啊

108
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抢这个黄金白银的啊

109
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前段时间抢那个啊各种各样的呵

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有色金属的一模一样

111
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各位最多啊

112
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你看下美股

113
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我经常讲

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我我经常讲这个啊

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哈里默黄金是吧

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这个美国的全球的哈

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这些黄金巨头

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纽蒙的黄金

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哈里梦黄金大概跌了33%天涨回来

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哼今天全面盈利哈

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我跟群里分享有多少

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我说八倍九倍的哈里默和他妈的三四十倍的

123
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山东黄金

124
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紫金矿业二三十倍的比起来哪个便宜啊

125
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一个是南非巨头

126
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世界巨头在美股上市

127
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一个是矿的质量都不一样啊

128
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虽然它的开采成本是比中国开采成本高

129
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但是矿的质量好

130
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综合下来其实2000盎司吧

131
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所以我们看到的东西和别人不一样

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很多人说安全哥

133
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你错过了啊

134
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易中天啊

135
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妇联工业妇联

136
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各位我能看得上他吗

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你能上哈佛耶鲁斯坦福

138
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我为什么上我那个路院呀

139
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各位那个路院垃圾的要死

140
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全是他妈的一群没脑子的人

141
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对不对啊

142
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你能看上是因为你没得选是吧

143
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你只能你只能吃这些东西

144
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我们我买英动天

145
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为什么不买台积电呢

146
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对吧

147
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我为什么不买英伟达

148
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为什么不买这些哈比谷歌对不对

149
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为什么不买这些顶级的呢

150
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又便宜

151
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确定性又强

152
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睡得又好

153
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你能拿能拿得住吗

154
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各位你能有几个能从头吃到尾的

155
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我一个都没见过

156
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不可能

157
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对不对

158
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他翻十倍

159
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你再翻十倍

160
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你能涨不到50%就不错了

161
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为啥因为案例太多了

162
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这些年但凡跑得慢的全部退回去

163
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你见过有几个全身而退的

164
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你15年买房到现在

165
00:05:04,310 --> 00:05:05,829
正好房价还是15年的价格

166
00:05:05,829 --> 00:05:08,209
是不是你买了任何的

167
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无论是去年的有事

168
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各位还有人说我去年15块假的交易

169
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同意大部分人都是30块

170
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40块开始接

171
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但实际上现在又回去了呀

172
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对不对

173
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哎呀

174
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所以啊我给大家讲一个点啊

175
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就是这个人呢哈就是见世面很重要啊

176
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就是见世面真的非常非常重要

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第二个呢价值观真的非常不重要

178
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第三个呢就是这倒霉的人啊

179
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你们注意观察一下

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就是价值观不对

181
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倒霉的人呢你远离他

182
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因为他倒霉意味着什么

183
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倒一次

184
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那你真倒霉

185
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倒两次

186
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运气不好

187
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倒三次肯定有问题

188
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哪有一个人反复的为一个身上收割的

189
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对不对

190
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就说白了这个人是什么呢

191
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就是你行和不行

192
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实际上他是你的眼光决定的

193
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不是说昨天有个兄弟在群里啊

194
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哎轩哥

195
00:05:52,439 --> 00:05:53,959
你怎么判断出来的对吧

196
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我去年买谷歌的时候

197
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说实话啊

198
00:05:56,589 --> 00:05:57,709
去年讲谷歌的时候

199
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基本上没有几个人

200
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没有几个人认同

201
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包括老段

202
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老段都不认同

203
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老段说哎谷歌搜索会受到大明星影响

204
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我说第一个呢

205
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谷歌的搜索不存在垄断

206
00:06:07,579 --> 00:06:08,899
不会存在这种啊

207
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被这个垄断拆分啊

208
00:06:10,660 --> 00:06:11,019
很简单

209
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大模型出来之后

210
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搜索流失没了

211
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第二个谷歌技术层面很优质

212
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为啥嘞

213
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大模型的底层就是人家开发的呀

214
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他第三个呢导火索是他的CEO啊

215
00:06:20,899 --> 00:06:22,949
就是他原来创始人嘛重新回来

216
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这么多山一出来立马股价就翻倍了

217
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各位短短的几个月翻倍了

218
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跌了他妈半年几个月翻倍

219
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甲骨文跌了半年四天吧

220
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四天回来

221
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各位

222
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所以这就是这个东西

223
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它不是技术

224
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各位这是什么

225
00:06:36,740 --> 00:06:38,129
这是你对世界的理解

226
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是你对这个事情本身的思考深度

227
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这才是核心问题啊

228
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所以我就给大家提几个建议啊

229
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就是如果你能看明白一个事儿

230
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你不要给任何人解释啊

231
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当然了

232
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你其实咱们希望身边人好

233
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这也是对的啊

234
00:06:51,079 --> 00:06:52,920
就是大家都希望身边人好

235
00:06:52,920 --> 00:06:54,279
但前提他有价值观

236
00:06:54,279 --> 00:06:55,259
他能听懂

237
00:06:55,259 --> 00:06:56,540
他能理解对吧

238
00:06:56,540 --> 00:06:58,379
然后呢他能有思想啊

239
00:06:58,379 --> 00:06:59,199
能有思想

240
00:06:59,199 --> 00:07:00,220
这很重要

241
00:07:00,220 --> 00:07:01,560
如果这个人没有思想

242
00:07:01,560 --> 00:07:03,579
是他价值观有又有问题啊

243
00:07:03,579 --> 00:07:04,699
他又看不到这个世界啊

244
00:07:04,699 --> 00:07:06,300
比如就是觉得俄罗斯啊

245
00:07:06,300 --> 00:07:08,620
伊朗啊啊这种必赢的啊

246
00:07:08,620 --> 00:07:10,899
或者说啊巴不得巴不得世界大乱的啊

247
00:07:10,899 --> 00:07:12,139
分不清是非的啊

248
00:07:12,139 --> 00:07:13,680
这些人你千万不要理他

249
00:07:13,680 --> 00:07:14,860
对你就看着他就行了

250
00:07:14,860 --> 00:07:16,730
你看着他走向悬崖啊

251
00:07:16,730 --> 00:07:17,649
看着他房价腰斩

252
00:07:17,649 --> 00:07:18,990
看着他股票腰斩

253
00:07:18,990 --> 00:07:21,199
看着他高位接接地气

254
00:07:21,199 --> 00:07:22,120
所谓的光模块

255
00:07:22,120 --> 00:07:23,160
嘿嘿嘿嘿

256
00:07:23,160 --> 00:07:23,839
黄金白银

257
00:07:23,839 --> 00:07:24,600
你看着他就行了

258
00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:26,220
就是不要给他解释

259
00:07:26,220 --> 00:07:26,939
他们不信的

260
00:07:26,939 --> 00:07:31,480
真的就是我反正摄像头是讲了这么长时间啊

261
00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,800
就是这个信是什么来的呢

262
00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:36,978
信啊他就是价值观叫共通啊

263
00:07:36,978 --> 00:07:38,038
这个人没有不犯错误的

264
00:07:38,038 --> 00:07:39,079
我也会经常犯错误

265
00:07:39,079 --> 00:07:39,918
但他信任什么

266
00:07:39,918 --> 00:07:41,918
也就是他知道你的逻辑啊

267
00:07:41,918 --> 00:07:44,990
你的分析你的出发点啊是正确的

268
00:07:44,990 --> 00:07:46,810
是原则性底线很强的

269
00:07:46,810 --> 00:07:48,600
这叫信他没有原则

270
00:07:48,600 --> 00:07:49,500
没有底线的人呢

271
00:07:49,500 --> 00:07:50,420
他不可能信

272
00:07:50,420 --> 00:07:51,689
因为他没有这一查

273
00:07:51,689 --> 00:07:52,370
你懂我意思吗

274
00:07:52,370 --> 00:07:53,649
就他脑袋就我给大家讲

275
00:07:53,649 --> 00:07:55,290
就大家这个人和人的区别什么

276
00:07:55,290 --> 00:07:56,129
他想法不一样

277
00:07:56,129 --> 00:07:57,699
比如说美国打伊朗那个事

278
00:07:57,699 --> 00:07:59,879
实际上从正义和邪恶来讲

279
00:07:59,879 --> 00:08:00,939
伊朗政权还是邪恶的

280
00:08:00,939 --> 00:08:01,680
打他是对的

281
00:08:01,680 --> 00:08:03,139
因为他有他一旦有了

282
00:08:03,139 --> 00:08:03,660
有有了核弹

283
00:08:03,660 --> 00:08:04,649
他可以毁灭世界

284
00:08:04,649 --> 00:08:05,589
所以消灭了它

285
00:08:05,589 --> 00:08:07,430
这个世界上呛内安静

286
00:08:07,430 --> 00:08:08,449
美国他错在哪个

287
00:08:08,449 --> 00:08:10,158
就是他他可能伤害到平民

288
00:08:10,158 --> 00:08:11,199
这是他错的事情

289
00:08:11,199 --> 00:08:13,319
但是你打仗不可能不伤害你

290
00:08:13,319 --> 00:08:14,779
让你这对协表来讲

291
00:08:14,779 --> 00:08:16,000
你一旦有了邪恶

292
00:08:16,000 --> 00:08:17,379
对毁灭地球来讲

293
00:08:17,379 --> 00:08:19,220
还不如去牺牲掉一部分人

294
00:08:19,220 --> 00:08:20,220
这是没办法的

295
00:08:20,220 --> 00:08:22,980
那第二个呢就是什么叫做适合非的原因

296
00:08:22,980 --> 00:08:27,410
就是在这种前瞻性股票这个事上

297
00:08:27,410 --> 00:08:31,889
前瞻性上是非上最好的和吃好的上是吧

298
00:08:31,889 --> 00:08:35,909
躺着和跪着上这个东西它只能靠眼界对

299
00:08:35,909 --> 00:08:38,289
如果没有眼界

300
00:08:38,289 --> 00:08:39,929
他是一定听不懂的懂吗

301
00:08:39,929 --> 00:08:43,090
就是我在美国这一年的时间

302
00:08:43,090 --> 00:08:44,490
每天在散步

303
00:08:44,490 --> 00:08:44,850
在走路

304
00:08:44,850 --> 00:08:45,370
在思考

305
00:08:45,370 --> 00:08:47,049
昨天市场的兄弟说

306
00:08:47,049 --> 00:08:49,340
强哥你这一年想法变化很大

307
00:08:49,340 --> 00:08:50,179
想法变化很大

308
00:08:50,179 --> 00:08:51,279
综合能力真的很多

309
00:08:51,279 --> 00:08:52,340
思考深度很多

310
00:08:52,340 --> 00:08:53,820
我说我越思考

311
00:08:53,820 --> 00:08:55,740
我对人性的理解越深刻

312
00:08:55,740 --> 00:08:59,210
就是人他这个所谓的命运啊

313
00:08:59,210 --> 00:09:00,769
就是他价值观你越思考

314
00:09:00,769 --> 00:09:04,009
越到最后你会发现哇个人的价值观

315
00:09:04,009 --> 00:09:05,509
就是他看不见的时候

316
00:09:05,509 --> 00:09:07,029
你怎么说他也不信

317
00:09:07,029 --> 00:09:09,809
但是看不见的人太有心了

318
00:09:09,809 --> 00:09:11,570
比如像我这种我看不见的时候

319
00:09:11,570 --> 00:09:13,149
我会从每一次挫折上

320
00:09:13,149 --> 00:09:13,950
我一想

321
00:09:13,950 --> 00:09:15,690
我不能让它第二次发生

322
00:09:15,690 --> 00:09:17,090
我不能让错误发生

323
00:09:17,090 --> 00:09:19,220
因为这不符合我们的价值观

324
00:09:19,220 --> 00:09:20,419
这是我第一次啊

325
00:09:20,419 --> 00:09:21,399
我让你打了一耳光

326
00:09:21,399 --> 00:09:22,580
第二次绝对不行

327
00:09:22,580 --> 00:09:24,100
第三次坚决不可能

328
00:09:24,100 --> 00:09:25,259
如果第三次还这样

329
00:09:25,259 --> 00:09:25,899
那是我的问题

330
00:09:25,899 --> 00:09:27,080
那不是别人的问题

331
00:09:27,080 --> 00:09:30,210
所以呢人这个东西呢你看不懂

332
00:09:30,210 --> 00:09:31,889
嘿嘿那就是你的问题

333
00:09:31,889 --> 00:09:33,669
就像巴菲特和芒格说的啊

334
00:09:33,669 --> 00:09:36,029
这屋子里面有一个垃圾

335
00:09:36,029 --> 00:09:37,470
你不知道谁是垃圾

336
00:09:37,470 --> 00:09:38,769
证明你的眼光有问题

337
00:09:38,769 --> 00:09:39,950
所以实际上呢兄弟们

338
00:09:39,950 --> 00:09:43,490
如果说你啊想就能遇上躺着赚钱呢

339
00:09:43,490 --> 00:09:45,899
嘿嘿好好琢磨我说的话啊

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