BV1yk96BsETt · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:01,800 在这个视频中我们将拆解 2 00:00:01,800 --> 00:00:06,780 埃隆·马斯克可能的马基雅维利式特斯拉接管计划 3 00:00:06,780 --> 00:00:11,439 以及这对特斯拉和SpaceX的影响 4 00:00:11,439 --> 00:00:13,439 我们将逐一解析所有内容 5 00:00:13,439 --> 00:00:15,960 同时我们将结合特斯拉最新的财报数据 6 00:00:15,960 --> 00:00:17,559 接下来我们将讨论自动驾驶出租车 7 00:00:17,559 --> 00:00:19,000 我们将探讨FSD系统 8 00:00:19,000 --> 00:00:20,320 我们还将讨论Optimus项目 9 00:00:20,320 --> 00:00:22,300 这里有很多内容需要覆盖 10 00:00:22,300 --> 00:00:23,600 但你需要知道的重点是 11 00:00:23,600 --> 00:00:28,359 首先我见到了凯文让我们直接切入事实 12 00:00:28,359 --> 00:00:32,899 今天的股市与七十年前不同 13 00:00:32,899 --> 00:00:34,979 假设是巴菲特时代的监管模式 14 00:00:34,979 --> 00:00:39,799 人们基于当前基本面价值买入股票 15 00:00:39,799 --> 00:00:41,920 大多数人我并不是说你 16 00:00:41,920 --> 00:00:42,439 我说 17 00:00:42,439 --> 00:00:47,420 大多数人买入股票是因为其上涨趋势 18 00:00:47,420 --> 00:00:51,039 而不会买入下跌的股票 19 00:00:51,039 --> 00:00:53,420 你当然希望它不会向左偏离 20 00:00:54,420 --> 00:00:55,810 不过暂且不提 21 00:00:56,009 --> 00:01:02,848 埃隆·马斯克有机会通过SpaceX IPO实现独特操作 22 00:01:03,168 --> 00:01:06,248 结合特斯拉财报中展现的内容 23 00:01:06,248 --> 00:01:09,608 以及埃隆在财报会议中提到的 24 00:01:09,608 --> 00:01:11,000 在我看来 25 00:01:11,000 --> 00:01:16,200 使埃隆的全面接管特斯拉计划 26 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:17,599 在我看来 27 00:01:17,599 --> 00:01:18,969 没有任何保证 28 00:01:20,328 --> 00:01:24,688 而这一切将基于埃隆·马斯克利用市场手段 29 00:01:24,688 --> 00:01:28,269 今日股市基于动量而非基本面 30 00:01:28,269 --> 00:01:31,629 而非巴菲特时代所见的基本面驱动 31 00:01:31,629 --> 00:01:38,269 最佳时机是在股票IPO时榨取动量 32 00:01:38,269 --> 00:01:41,099 因为此时会有大量资金涌入 33 00:01:41,099 --> 00:01:43,500 推动股票炒作 34 00:01:43,500 --> 00:01:45,519 全天都在CNBC报道 35 00:01:45,519 --> 00:01:47,590 全天都在彭博社报道 36 00:01:47,590 --> 00:01:51,909 华尔街日报每个头条都在讨论SpaceX IPO 37 00:01:51,909 --> 00:01:53,579 其首周交易表现 38 00:01:53,579 --> 00:01:55,540 最初的几天至关重要 39 00:01:56,540 --> 00:02:00,040 我们刚刚看到纳斯达克调整了规则 40 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:05,469 关于纳入纳斯达克指数的标准 41 00:02:05,469 --> 00:02:08,439 比如QQQ等产品 42 00:02:08,439 --> 00:02:09,539 嗯 43 00:02:09,539 --> 00:02:11,080 这次调整是什么内容 44 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:11,819 哦 45 00:02:11,819 --> 00:02:18,650 允许流通股占比低于10%的股票纳入 46 00:02:18,650 --> 00:02:19,090 现在 47 00:02:19,090 --> 00:02:20,650 你可能会疑惑凯文凯文 48 00:02:20,650 --> 00:02:21,250 我跟不上了 49 00:02:21,250 --> 00:02:22,030 这是什么意思 50 00:02:22,030 --> 00:02:24,400 简而言之 51 00:02:24,400 --> 00:02:29,400 当一家大公司准备上市并在未来被纳入指数时 52 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,960 因此所有指数基金买家会持续提供流动性 53 00:02:32,960 --> 00:02:35,039 你可以从他们的资金中筹集资金 54 00:02:35,039 --> 00:02:36,379 没错，你可以发行新股 55 00:02:36,379 --> 00:02:37,759 而股价不会下跌 56 00:02:37,759 --> 00:02:41,139 因为指数基金买家每天自动买入 57 00:02:41,139 --> 00:02:42,579 如果你是指数成分股 58 00:02:42,579 --> 00:02:44,438 作为一家公司的股票 59 00:02:44,438 --> 00:02:46,579 你将持续获得流动性支持 60 00:02:46,579 --> 00:02:48,598 你的股票始终有买家 61 00:02:48,598 --> 00:02:51,560 他们很多时候甚至不知道自己在买什么 62 00:02:51,560 --> 00:02:52,979 他们只想要指数基金 63 00:02:52,979 --> 00:02:54,259 因为他们想购买美国的一部分 64 00:02:54,259 --> 00:02:55,139 这没问题 65 00:02:55,139 --> 00:02:57,689 但这为这些公司创造了巨大流动性 66 00:02:57,689 --> 00:02:58,569 从历史来看 67 00:02:58,569 --> 00:03:04,969 通常需要超过10%的股份流通才能被纳入指数 68 00:03:04,969 --> 00:03:07,650 但随着SpaceX即将上市 69 00:03:07,650 --> 00:03:12,909 NASA悄悄降低了这一要求至低于10% 70 00:03:12,909 --> 00:03:13,650 现在 71 00:03:13,650 --> 00:03:14,409 埃隆 72 00:03:14,409 --> 00:03:18,819 我相信SpaceX将发行6%至7%的股份 73 00:03:18,819 --> 00:03:22,419 公司极小的一部分股权 74 00:03:22,419 --> 00:03:23,020 现在 75 00:03:23,020 --> 00:03:24,139 有趣的是 76 00:03:24,139 --> 00:03:24,780 这一点 77 00:03:24,780 --> 00:03:27,270 埃隆·马斯克根据他的 78 00:03:27,270 --> 00:03:27,629 你知道的 79 00:03:27,629 --> 00:03:28,110 斯德哥尔摩 80 00:03:28,110 --> 00:03:32,319 在特斯拉持有13%至20%的股权 81 00:03:32,479 --> 00:03:33,919 但他并不喜欢 82 00:03:33,919 --> 00:03:35,639 他重视投票控制权 83 00:03:35,639 --> 00:03:38,280 因为他认为这也是事实 84 00:03:38,280 --> 00:03:40,960 由创始人掌控的公司 85 00:03:40,960 --> 00:03:45,349 往往表现优于创始人无控制权的公司 86 00:03:45,349 --> 00:03:46,370 完全合理 87 00:03:46,370 --> 00:03:47,569 完全能理解 88 00:03:47,569 --> 00:03:50,680 这种利益驱动在SpaceX 89 00:03:50,680 --> 00:03:52,360 埃隆·马斯克采取了不同策略 90 00:03:52,360 --> 00:03:55,659 他持有4.2%的股权 91 00:03:55,659 --> 00:03:58,519 但实际拥有79%的投票权 92 00:03:58,519 --> 00:04:00,799 他是绝对控股股东 93 00:04:00,799 --> 00:04:02,459 他可以为所欲为 94 00:04:02,459 --> 00:04:03,758 这也是为什么 95 00:04:03,758 --> 00:04:10,169 SpaceX几乎耗尽所有运营利润 96 00:04:10,169 --> 00:04:13,210 现在运营持续亏损 97 00:04:13,210 --> 00:04:15,110 因为埃隆执意如此 98 00:04:15,110 --> 00:04:17,259 这并非明智之举 99 00:04:17,259 --> 00:04:19,639 当然还有Cursor收购案 100 00:04:19,639 --> 00:04:21,220 在我看来 101 00:04:21,220 --> 00:04:27,540 正如切线确实为spacex和x i提供了空间 102 00:04:27,540 --> 00:04:31,990 所有那些特斯拉数据中心的客户现在 103 00:04:31,990 --> 00:04:33,750 埃隆建造了所有这些数据中心 104 00:04:33,750 --> 00:04:35,389 我们以为需要这么多计算能力 105 00:04:35,389 --> 00:04:37,290 现在他手握大量h100芯片 106 00:04:37,290 --> 00:04:39,889 可能没用到预期那么多 107 00:04:39,889 --> 00:04:43,019 所以他给自己找了个客户 108 00:04:43,019 --> 00:04:43,759 是的 109 00:04:43,759 --> 00:04:46,800 600亿美元潜在收购cursor合同 110 00:04:46,800 --> 00:04:47,850 Cursor AI 111 00:04:47,850 --> 00:04:50,490 或支付十亿使用他们的产品 112 00:04:50,490 --> 00:04:52,529 但与此同时cursor曾 113 00:04:52,529 --> 00:04:53,160 你知道的 114 00:04:53,160 --> 00:04:55,100 称赞x ai是 115 00:04:55,100 --> 00:04:55,480 呃 116 00:04:55,480 --> 00:04:57,040 最佳数据中心建造者 117 00:04:57,040 --> 00:04:57,829 你知道的 118 00:04:57,829 --> 00:05:00,069 Cursor可使用这些数据中心 119 00:05:00,069 --> 00:05:03,750 而x i现在亏损减少了一些 120 00:05:03,750 --> 00:05:05,519 然后spacex欢呼道 121 00:05:05,519 --> 00:05:07,600 现在亏损减少了一些 122 00:05:07,600 --> 00:05:08,139 好吧 123 00:05:08,139 --> 00:05:10,519 这一切提振了spacex 124 00:05:10,519 --> 00:05:11,589 IPO 125 00:05:11,589 --> 00:05:12,089 现在 126 00:05:12,089 --> 00:05:14,970 这和特斯拉有什么关系 127 00:05:14,970 --> 00:05:19,230 这与我所相信的布局有关 128 00:05:19,230 --> 00:05:24,199 埃隆·马斯克故意打压特斯拉股价 129 00:05:24,199 --> 00:05:26,139 使特斯拉市值 130 00:05:26,139 --> 00:05:29,120 保持稳定或下跌 131 00:05:29,480 --> 00:05:34,600 同时炒作spacex 132 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:37,819 低流通零售优先 133 00:05:37,819 --> 00:05:39,490 这只是销售话术 134 00:05:39,490 --> 00:05:42,490 太空数据中心同样是销售话术 135 00:05:42,490 --> 00:05:43,089 此时此刻 136 00:05:43,089 --> 00:05:44,410 十年后的事 137 00:05:44,410 --> 00:05:45,670 我不是说不会发生 138 00:05:45,670 --> 00:05:46,980 只是遥遥无期 139 00:05:46,980 --> 00:05:48,860 这里还有大量数据中心工作 140 00:05:48,860 --> 00:05:50,600 这也是他们与英特尔合作的原因 141 00:05:50,600 --> 00:05:53,389 双方在14nm和18nm晶圆厂合作 142 00:05:53,389 --> 00:05:55,089 我们已制作过相关视频 143 00:05:55,089 --> 00:05:56,810 英特尔合作堪称完美 144 00:05:56,810 --> 00:05:58,860 这实际风险spacex 145 00:05:58,860 --> 00:06:05,850 埃隆·马斯克当前所有动作旨在降低x ai和spacex风险 146 00:06:05,850 --> 00:06:08,408 因为越降低风险 147 00:06:08,408 --> 00:06:11,108 人们越愿购买spacex 148 00:06:11,108 --> 00:06:13,379 流通股越低 149 00:06:13,379 --> 00:06:16,079 尤其是埃隆持有大量股份 150 00:06:16,079 --> 00:06:17,879 流通股越少越有利 151 00:06:17,879 --> 00:06:20,449 这只小狗喜欢vcx 152 00:06:20,449 --> 00:06:28,538 看到vcx基金崛起是这个净值游戏，基本每股价值约二十美元 153 00:06:28,538 --> 00:06:29,858 当进行IPO时 154 00:06:29,858 --> 00:06:32,538 在IPO当天收盘价为31美元 155 00:06:32,538 --> 00:06:35,579 因为它现在有部分Anthropic持仓 156 00:06:35,579 --> 00:06:39,009 也许该持仓已涨至每股30美元 157 00:06:39,009 --> 00:06:43,089 但股价一度飙升至每股575美元 158 00:06:43,089 --> 00:06:46,649 这表明Anthropic估值约十万亿美元 159 00:06:46,649 --> 00:06:47,839 这简直疯狂 160 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,730 实际上它价值接近一千亿美元 161 00:06:51,730 --> 00:06:53,389 但并非十万亿 162 00:06:53,389 --> 00:06:54,529 但没人关心 163 00:06:54,529 --> 00:06:55,689 因为股价仍在上涨 164 00:06:55,689 --> 00:06:56,250 并向右移动 165 00:06:56,250 --> 00:06:58,129 当然在这个频道 166 00:06:58,129 --> 00:06:59,970 在我们的课程会员直播中 167 00:06:59,970 --> 00:07:00,850 我说道 168 00:07:00,850 --> 00:07:04,189 这只股票将迅速暴跌 169 00:07:04,189 --> 00:07:05,399 务必小心 170 00:07:05,399 --> 00:07:07,519 这脱离基本面 171 00:07:07,519 --> 00:07:08,860 我是个基本面分析者 172 00:07:08,860 --> 00:07:10,240 我喜欢长期投资 173 00:07:10,240 --> 00:07:11,240 我喜欢基本面分析 174 00:07:11,240 --> 00:07:13,079 我也发送交易提醒 175 00:07:13,079 --> 00:07:13,279 不过 176 00:07:13,279 --> 00:07:14,600 或者你们知道的阿尔法报告 177 00:07:14,600 --> 00:07:16,480 在短期波动或趋势方面 178 00:07:16,480 --> 00:07:17,050 我观察到 179 00:07:17,050 --> 00:07:20,089 但这都是市场研究的一部分 180 00:07:20,089 --> 00:07:23,129 因此这只股票暴跌并不意外 181 00:07:23,129 --> 00:07:25,740 我预计它将继续下跌 182 00:07:25,740 --> 00:07:28,180 可能跌至30-40美元 183 00:07:28,180 --> 00:07:29,300 每股价格大概如此 184 00:07:29,300 --> 00:07:30,540 Anthropic估值 185 00:07:30,540 --> 00:07:31,288 健康增长 186 00:07:31,288 --> 00:07:34,509 但重点是这就是一个典型的股票示例 187 00:07:34,509 --> 00:07:37,199 我在泡沫中看空它 188 00:07:37,199 --> 00:07:42,500 部分因为流通股数量有限 189 00:07:42,500 --> 00:07:45,519 当流通股数量有限时 190 00:07:45,519 --> 00:07:47,279 而很多人想要它 191 00:07:47,279 --> 00:07:48,500 股价就会上涨 192 00:07:48,500 --> 00:07:49,408 并向右移动 193 00:07:49,408 --> 00:07:50,908 许多公司都这样做 194 00:07:50,908 --> 00:07:55,990 问题是长期通常会暴跌 195 00:07:55,990 --> 00:07:57,170 如果估值过低 196 00:07:57,170 --> 00:07:57,689 流通量 197 00:07:57,689 --> 00:07:59,399 且基本面不支撑 198 00:07:59,399 --> 00:08:00,860 举例来说 199 00:08:00,860 --> 00:08:02,420 Weeble收购案 200 00:08:02,420 --> 00:08:03,439 当Weeble公司 201 00:08:03,439 --> 00:08:04,259 嗯，从 202 00:08:04,259 --> 00:08:04,699 你知道的 203 00:08:04,699 --> 00:08:05,459 从内部测试转为公开 204 00:08:05,459 --> 00:08:08,199 它曾飙升至八十美元 205 00:08:08,360 --> 00:08:12,399 如今从八十美元暴跌至四美元五十分 206 00:08:12,399 --> 00:08:13,699 交易价为七十六分 207 00:08:13,699 --> 00:08:18,740 另一个例子是他们仅发行了公司极小部分进行公开交易 208 00:08:18,740 --> 00:08:23,749 因此埃隆·马斯克试图降低SpaceX风险 209 00:08:23,749 --> 00:08:26,309 他试图推动SpaceX IPO 210 00:08:26,309 --> 00:08:27,389 这很合理 211 00:08:27,389 --> 00:08:30,230 我们现在确实需要资金 212 00:08:30,230 --> 00:08:32,649 这样他们可以收购Cursor AI 213 00:08:32,649 --> 00:08:33,529 我认为他们不会这么做 214 00:08:33,529 --> 00:08:35,570 我认为他们会将这项合作搁置 215 00:08:35,570 --> 00:08:38,700 只是将Cursor AI作为首批客户 216 00:08:38,700 --> 00:08:41,059 因为他们拥有大量可用的数据中心 217 00:08:41,059 --> 00:08:42,639 本质上是数据中心机架 218 00:08:42,639 --> 00:08:43,360 嗯 219 00:08:43,360 --> 00:08:45,399 但另一方面 220 00:08:45,399 --> 00:08:48,500 这里存在风险 221 00:08:48,500 --> 00:08:54,980 还需要为Tarsa工厂和Optimus自动驾驶出租车筹集资金 222 00:08:54,980 --> 00:08:57,440 这就是SpaceX IPO将提供的资金 223 00:08:57,440 --> 00:08:59,720 大概七十亿美元 224 00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:00,820 可以进一步杠杆化 225 00:09:00,820 --> 00:09:03,980 可能达到一百八十亿至二百四十亿美元 226 00:09:03,980 --> 00:09:06,159 这正是埃隆·马斯克会做的 227 00:09:06,159 --> 00:09:07,139 这太棒了 228 00:09:07,139 --> 00:09:08,399 这给了他大量资金 229 00:09:08,399 --> 00:09:11,929 几乎为他提供了四分之一的万亿美元用于建设 230 00:09:11,929 --> 00:09:13,009 这正是为何 231 00:09:13,009 --> 00:09:14,990 过去一个月你知道的 232 00:09:14,990 --> 00:09:16,110 因为我一直在频道里说 233 00:09:16,110 --> 00:09:17,769 你甚至无需付费即可参与课程 234 00:09:17,769 --> 00:09:19,309 但我一直定期强调 235 00:09:19,309 --> 00:09:20,129 各位 236 00:09:20,129 --> 00:09:21,610 硬件是下一步 237 00:09:21,610 --> 00:09:23,570 我们将迎来硬件价格暴涨 238 00:09:23,570 --> 00:09:24,610 CPU 239 00:09:24,610 --> 00:09:26,409 尤其是House Hack 240 00:09:26,409 --> 00:09:26,669 你知道的 241 00:09:26,669 --> 00:09:28,750 我这里衬衫下藏着再投资版本 242 00:09:28,750 --> 00:09:29,549 我拥有House Hack 243 00:09:29,549 --> 00:09:31,059 就在这里和House Ha 244 00:09:31,059 --> 00:09:33,779 我们已大量采购CPU 245 00:09:33,779 --> 00:09:35,940 我们为人工智能配备了Blackwell芯片 246 00:09:35,940 --> 00:09:37,159 一些即将推出的产品 247 00:09:37,159 --> 00:09:39,639 但我们已大量采购CPU用于推理工作 248 00:09:39,639 --> 00:09:40,120 而这些 249 00:09:40,120 --> 00:09:40,399 你知道的 250 00:09:40,399 --> 00:09:41,610 数据中心负载 251 00:09:41,610 --> 00:09:42,649 嗯，呃 252 00:09:42,649 --> 00:09:44,730 这是我们发送给课程成员的早期信号 253 00:09:44,730 --> 00:09:45,970 比如喜欢看arm 254 00:09:45,970 --> 00:09:46,649 例如 255 00:09:46,649 --> 00:09:47,690 甚至amd 256 00:09:47,690 --> 00:09:48,700 价格超级便宜 257 00:09:48,700 --> 00:09:49,340 如果你看看 258 00:09:49,340 --> 00:09:50,539 这些股票发生了什么变化 259 00:09:50,539 --> 00:09:51,179 我的意思是 260 00:09:51,179 --> 00:09:52,320 它们飙升了 261 00:09:52,320 --> 00:09:55,389 我们从amd两百美元的基础开始 262 00:09:55,389 --> 00:09:57,389 现在涨到三百三十四美元 263 00:09:57,389 --> 00:09:59,149 涨幅超过五十% 264 00:09:59,149 --> 00:10:00,399 这简直惊人 265 00:10:00,399 --> 00:10:01,700 再看看arm 266 00:10:01,700 --> 00:10:02,720 另一个cpu 267 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:03,500 供应商 268 00:10:03,500 --> 00:10:05,639 你知道你在这一区间上下波动 269 00:10:05,639 --> 00:10:08,099 大约在一百到一百五十八之间 270 00:10:08,099 --> 00:10:08,499 现在 271 00:10:08,499 --> 00:10:09,719 交易价两十五 272 00:10:09,719 --> 00:10:12,259 你知道这是今天回吐部分涨幅后 273 00:10:12,259 --> 00:10:15,730 你知道上周英特尔财报后的疯狂 rally 后 274 00:10:15,730 --> 00:10:17,389 这一切其实合理 275 00:10:17,389 --> 00:10:20,169 因为公司需要更多cpu 276 00:10:20,169 --> 00:10:24,168 现在基于 token 的聊天机器人已训练完成 277 00:10:24,168 --> 00:10:26,528 现在需要cpu用于推理 278 00:10:26,528 --> 00:10:28,568 未来我们需要更多光纤连接 279 00:10:28,568 --> 00:10:29,288 在未来 280 00:10:29,288 --> 00:10:32,889 未来需要更多5G和6G边缘节点 281 00:10:32,889 --> 00:10:36,009 AI就像未来之书已写就 282 00:10:36,009 --> 00:10:37,110 这非常明显 283 00:10:37,110 --> 00:10:39,710 而软件将是这一领域的重要赢家 284 00:10:39,710 --> 00:10:42,470 我认为spacex将成为重要玩家 285 00:10:42,470 --> 00:10:44,429 尤其是作为主要国防承包商 286 00:10:44,429 --> 00:10:45,470 类似新式prime 287 00:10:45,470 --> 00:10:46,129 他们称之为 288 00:10:46,129 --> 00:10:46,649 呃 289 00:10:46,649 --> 00:10:51,490 这基本上是为政府组装武器或卫星等的人 290 00:10:51,490 --> 00:10:57,539 他们与政府有合同可参与政府项目竞标 291 00:10:57,539 --> 00:11:00,129 即使涉及机密项目 292 00:11:00,129 --> 00:11:01,009 不过 293 00:11:01,009 --> 00:11:03,009 真正有趣的是 294 00:11:03,009 --> 00:11:04,289 当我们讨论特斯拉风险时 295 00:11:04,289 --> 00:11:05,730 我们来到spacex 296 00:11:05,730 --> 00:11:08,789 实际上在增加特斯拉的风险 297 00:11:08,789 --> 00:11:12,009 接下来我们将谈到特斯拉财报 298 00:11:12,009 --> 00:11:16,980 因为存在需要关注的特斯拉问题 299 00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:17,720 首先是问题 300 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:18,379 首先 301 00:11:18,379 --> 00:11:20,460 当谈到这些财报时，很多人就像 302 00:11:20,460 --> 00:11:20,620 哦 303 00:11:20,620 --> 00:11:21,019 天啊 304 00:11:21,019 --> 00:11:25,580 马斯克终于承认硬件三号无法实现无监督学习 305 00:11:25,580 --> 00:11:29,549 关注特斯拉FSD的粉丝早已知晓这一点 306 00:11:29,549 --> 00:11:30,009 好的 307 00:11:30,009 --> 00:11:32,009 不仅限于使用硬件三号 308 00:11:32,009 --> 00:11:33,049 你已经知道这个了吗 309 00:11:33,049 --> 00:11:35,690 但如果你仔细关注最近几场财报电话会 310 00:11:35,690 --> 00:11:37,059 这早已不是意外 311 00:11:37,059 --> 00:11:42,679 马斯克表示我们可能得想办法解决硬件三号问题 312 00:11:42,679 --> 00:11:44,019 无论是升级还是这个方案 313 00:11:44,019 --> 00:11:44,620 或者任何其他方案 314 00:11:44,620 --> 00:11:45,019 现在 315 00:11:45,019 --> 00:11:48,240 他们讨论的可能是提供某种置换积分 316 00:11:48,240 --> 00:11:51,850 或允许在微型工厂进行改装 317 00:11:51,850 --> 00:11:53,190 以升级这些车辆 318 00:11:53,190 --> 00:11:56,090 需要大量工作拆解汽车部件 319 00:11:56,090 --> 00:11:58,149 安装新电脑并升级摄像头 320 00:11:58,149 --> 00:11:59,889 所有这些都会增加成本 321 00:11:59,889 --> 00:12:01,009 这将非常昂贵 322 00:12:01,009 --> 00:12:03,509 他说服务中心将不堪重负 323 00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:04,590 太慢且效率低下 324 00:12:04,590 --> 00:12:07,950 所以我们必须建微型工厂，这成本很高 325 00:12:07,950 --> 00:12:10,149 这对特斯拉是真实负担 326 00:12:10,149 --> 00:12:12,429 这个问题已为人所知 327 00:12:12,429 --> 00:12:15,289 我们只是更明确地指出，猜怎么着 328 00:12:15,289 --> 00:12:17,409 这完美契合了 329 00:12:17,409 --> 00:12:18,679 正如我们所说 330 00:12:18,679 --> 00:12:20,250 SpaceX上涨 331 00:12:20,250 --> 00:12:22,289 特斯拉成本将上升 332 00:12:22,289 --> 00:12:24,330 而销量逐渐停滞 333 00:12:24,330 --> 00:12:24,730 好的 334 00:12:24,730 --> 00:12:26,289 这里仍有小幅年同比增长 335 00:12:26,289 --> 00:12:28,990 但对比的是糟糕的狗狗币时期 336 00:12:28,990 --> 00:12:30,850 这会拖累特斯拉股价 337 00:12:30,850 --> 00:12:34,210 想象你通过炒作特斯拉和SpaceX 338 00:12:34,210 --> 00:12:36,190 从两万亿美元IPO估值 339 00:12:36,190 --> 00:12:38,909 挤压这只小狗在低流通盘上涨至两万亿美元 340 00:12:42,210 --> 00:12:47,049 然后利用人们抛售特斯拉股票转投SpaceX 341 00:12:47,049 --> 00:12:48,578 因为他们想追随马斯克 342 00:12:48,578 --> 00:12:52,059 但特斯拉将经历一段艰难时期 343 00:12:52,059 --> 00:12:53,779 特斯拉股价下跌 344 00:12:53,779 --> 00:12:56,179 可能交易在八千亿美元 345 00:12:56,179 --> 00:12:57,779 或五千亿亿美元 346 00:12:57,779 --> 00:13:00,679 无论如何五千亿亿美元很轻松 347 00:13:00,679 --> 00:13:03,019 尤其是当SpaceX纳入指数时 348 00:13:03,019 --> 00:13:05,740 将部分资金用于杠杆收购特斯拉 349 00:13:05,740 --> 00:13:07,279 对特斯拉进行杠杆收购 350 00:13:07,279 --> 00:13:08,909 我看到了整个过程 351 00:13:09,029 --> 00:13:14,389 埃隆猜猜他在SpaceX持有的超级投票权股份 352 00:13:14,389 --> 00:13:15,269 他持有B类股 353 00:13:15,269 --> 00:13:17,220 现在拥有超级投票权股份 354 00:13:17,220 --> 00:13:18,179 他具备流动性 355 00:13:18,179 --> 00:13:19,320 多亏了交易所 356 00:13:19,320 --> 00:13:20,419 他有一个热门梗 357 00:13:20,419 --> 00:13:21,399 估值挤压操作 358 00:13:21,399 --> 00:13:22,600 多亏低流通量 359 00:13:22,600 --> 00:13:24,320 你拥有一支粉丝股 360 00:13:24,320 --> 00:13:27,960 他现在对SpaceX拥有79%的控制权 361 00:13:27,960 --> 00:13:34,749 他可以收购或利用这一控制权获得特斯拉的大额控股权 362 00:13:34,749 --> 00:13:38,799 他可能已将特斯拉控制权提升至50%以上 363 00:13:38,799 --> 00:13:40,000 我不能确定这一点 364 00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,159 我显然在对此进行推测 365 00:13:42,159 --> 00:13:45,000 但我要告诉你们的一切关于特斯拉的内容 366 00:13:45,000 --> 00:13:49,220 只需以震惊的心态去思考 367 00:13:49,220 --> 00:13:49,980 难怪 368 00:13:49,980 --> 00:13:52,980 埃隆·马斯克突然开始谈论我们不得不 369 00:13:52,980 --> 00:13:55,759 我们必须在城市建微型工厂 370 00:13:55,759 --> 00:13:56,609 等等 371 00:13:56,609 --> 00:13:58,328 先仔细听听他说的话 372 00:13:58,328 --> 00:14:02,649 我们要进入城市建立工厂 373 00:14:02,649 --> 00:14:03,090 好吧 374 00:14:03,090 --> 00:14:05,029 首先工厂不适合建在城市 375 00:14:05,029 --> 00:14:06,789 但那里有你的用户和客户 376 00:14:06,789 --> 00:14:09,960 我明白这是最昂贵的选择 377 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,360 这一切都是出于善意 378 00:14:12,360 --> 00:14:14,589 这一切都是作为保修索赔 379 00:14:14,589 --> 00:14:15,548 与此同时 380 00:14:15,548 --> 00:14:16,448 与此同时 381 00:14:16,448 --> 00:14:18,389 尽管我们将面临巨额 382 00:14:18,389 --> 00:14:19,668 实质性的保修索赔 383 00:14:19,668 --> 00:14:21,279 由于FSD问题 384 00:14:21,279 --> 00:14:23,159 特斯拉决定告诉我们 385 00:14:23,159 --> 00:14:23,659 嗯 386 00:14:23,659 --> 00:14:24,299 各位 387 00:14:24,299 --> 00:14:28,440 实际上我们的车几乎不需要保养 388 00:14:28,440 --> 00:14:29,610 这是事实 389 00:14:29,610 --> 00:14:34,470 我们将一次性获得2.3亿美元 390 00:14:34,470 --> 00:14:35,669 保修带来的收益 391 00:14:35,669 --> 00:14:36,289 真实折损 392 00:14:36,289 --> 00:14:39,549 因为我们几乎不做保修工作 393 00:14:39,629 --> 00:14:41,269 必须给特斯拉一些认可 394 00:14:41,269 --> 00:14:44,460 这些车确实很少需要服务 395 00:14:44,460 --> 00:14:45,360 它们很糟糕 396 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:49,320 但总体上比燃油车需要更少维护 397 00:14:49,320 --> 00:14:50,759 我们知道这是我们喜欢它的原因之一 398 00:14:50,759 --> 00:14:52,000 特斯拉 399 00:14:52,639 --> 00:14:54,299 这是埃隆的隐瞒策略 400 00:14:54,299 --> 00:14:54,679 好的 401 00:14:54,679 --> 00:14:55,539 我们早就知道会这样 402 00:14:55,539 --> 00:14:56,360 这只是一个沙袋 403 00:14:56,360 --> 00:14:56,639 好吧 404 00:14:56,639 --> 00:14:58,429 我们现在继续前进 405 00:14:58,429 --> 00:15:03,059 特斯拉表示他们打算以最高两亿美元的价格收购一家未命名的硬件公司 406 00:15:03,059 --> 00:15:07,580 他们还将把资本支出从二十亿美元提高到二十 407 00:15:07,580 --> 00:15:09,019 五亿美元 408 00:15:09,019 --> 00:15:10,820 之前的计划是没错的 409 00:15:10,820 --> 00:15:11,820 从二十亿增至二十五亿 410 00:15:11,820 --> 00:15:12,879 之前的计划是二十亿 411 00:15:12,879 --> 00:15:15,399 他们还将投资三亿美元 412 00:15:15,399 --> 00:15:17,679 在奥斯汀建设研究工厂 413 00:15:17,679 --> 00:15:19,299 你看到他在做什么了吗 414 00:15:19,299 --> 00:15:21,620 就像我我我我只是想像像 415 00:15:21,620 --> 00:15:23,299 而不是你因为我了解你的意思 416 00:15:23,299 --> 00:15:23,539 但就像 417 00:15:23,539 --> 00:15:24,799 我只是想拍打某个人 418 00:15:24,799 --> 00:15:26,389 呃然后说兄弟 419 00:15:26,389 --> 00:15:27,710 这一切都是沙袋 420 00:15:27,710 --> 00:15:31,049 他在告诉你我们将建造昂贵的工厂来解决一个问题 421 00:15:31,049 --> 00:15:32,669 一个我们自己制造的负债 422 00:15:32,669 --> 00:15:37,090 然后我们要孤注一掷投入三亿美元建厂 423 00:15:37,090 --> 00:15:41,139 这个工厂无法盈利用于芯片研发 424 00:15:41,139 --> 00:15:44,320 在道桥项目基本被取消后 425 00:15:44,320 --> 00:15:47,529 现在又要重启为道桥三号 426 00:15:47,850 --> 00:15:53,279 你简直在列举不看好特斯拉股票的理由 427 00:15:53,279 --> 00:15:53,820 现在 428 00:15:53,820 --> 00:15:54,740 这很糟糕 429 00:15:54,740 --> 00:15:56,639 对特斯拉的短期走势不利 430 00:15:56,639 --> 00:15:57,100 你知道的 431 00:15:57,100 --> 00:15:59,250 特斯拉目前市盈率超过五倍 432 00:15:59,250 --> 00:15:59,610 你知道的 433 00:15:59,610 --> 00:16:00,629 市盈率增长率 434 00:16:00,629 --> 00:16:03,350 基于未来四年每股收益增长率 435 00:16:03,350 --> 00:16:04,889 所以计算下一年的市盈率 436 00:16:04,889 --> 00:16:06,360 市盈率比率 437 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:11,299 除以公司未来四年预期的收益增长率 438 00:16:11,299 --> 00:16:14,750 当这个比率超过 439 00:16:14,750 --> 00:16:15,389 你知道的 440 00:16:15,389 --> 00:16:18,789 尤其是对特斯拉超过两倍开始显得偏高 441 00:16:18,789 --> 00:16:20,779 在我看来有些高估 442 00:16:20,779 --> 00:16:24,799 巴菲特使用类似但略有不同的版本 443 00:16:24,799 --> 00:16:26,899 但他也会考虑这些增长率 444 00:16:26,899 --> 00:16:27,720 这很有趣 445 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:31,940 你想知道我最终会怎么想对吧 446 00:16:31,940 --> 00:16:32,899 不过 447 00:16:32,899 --> 00:16:34,419 如果我查看当前的 448 00:16:34,419 --> 00:16:35,299 特斯拉数据 449 00:16:35,299 --> 00:16:36,500 我现在就调出来 450 00:16:36,500 --> 00:16:39,019 我的每股收益增长率是4.3倍 451 00:16:39,019 --> 00:16:40,009 这非常棒 452 00:16:40,009 --> 00:16:41,549 但我只有一个观点 453 00:16:41,549 --> 00:16:44,309 预计每股收益63美分 454 00:16:44,309 --> 00:16:45,759 所以1.63美元 455 00:16:45,759 --> 00:16:46,039 你知道的 456 00:16:46,039 --> 00:16:49,100 如果我以390美元的价格交易 457 00:16:49,100 --> 00:16:51,860 除以1.63美元的预期收益 458 00:16:51,860 --> 00:16:53,360 年末的收益 459 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:54,320 未来收益 460 00:16:54,320 --> 00:16:57,559 我交易价相当于240市盈率 461 00:16:57,559 --> 00:16:59,480 不要看历史数据 462 00:16:59,480 --> 00:17:00,860 很多人会犯这个错误 463 00:17:00,860 --> 00:17:01,879 我的PEG是多少 464 00:17:01,879 --> 00:17:03,139 随着我向前推进 465 00:17:03,139 --> 00:17:05,450 未来四年4.3%的每股收益增长 466 00:17:05,450 --> 00:17:07,289 仍然以5.56倍市盈率交易 467 00:17:07,289 --> 00:17:10,859 同时马斯克在玩沙袋游戏 468 00:17:10,859 --> 00:17:13,279 如果真的达到公允价值 469 00:17:13,279 --> 00:17:14,420 1.6倍 470 00:17:14,420 --> 00:17:16,740 3倍于1.6 471 00:17:16,740 --> 00:17:19,400 7倍于4.3 472 00:17:19,400 --> 00:17:22,380 交易价约117美元 473 00:17:23,420 --> 00:17:26,009 特斯拉股价117美元 474 00:17:26,009 --> 00:17:28,210 这会成为你的看跌期权吗 475 00:17:28,210 --> 00:17:29,769 我不是说一定会发生 476 00:17:29,769 --> 00:17:34,219 117美元除以3.77 477 00:17:34,219 --> 00:17:37,019 代表约69%的下跌空间 478 00:17:37,019 --> 00:17:38,638 挑了个好数字 479 00:17:38,638 --> 00:17:40,970 69%的跌幅 480 00:17:40,970 --> 00:17:42,589 下行空间30 481 00:17:42,589 --> 00:17:44,349 1%的1.4 482 00:17:44,349 --> 00:17:44,630 4万亿 483 00:17:44,630 --> 00:17:45,910 2万亿美元 484 00:17:45,910 --> 00:17:48,069 4400亿美元 485 00:17:48,069 --> 00:17:52,539 马斯克SpaceX将花4400亿美元收购 486 00:17:52,539 --> 00:17:55,740 SpaceX为特斯拉创建了看跌期权 487 00:17:55,740 --> 00:17:59,380 这就是马斯克获得公司投票权的方式 488 00:17:59,380 --> 00:18:00,039 我的观点 489 00:18:00,039 --> 00:18:01,119 人们会说我疯了 490 00:18:01,119 --> 00:18:02,690 现在无所谓 491 00:18:02,690 --> 00:18:04,329 技术上特斯拉确实达标 492 00:18:04,329 --> 00:18:07,369 但记住预期已暴跌60% 493 00:18:07,369 --> 00:18:09,259 随着汽车销量下降 494 00:18:09,259 --> 00:18:14,200 SpaceX购买了四季度7000辆Cybertruck的18% 495 00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:15,710 我爱我的Cybertruck 496 00:18:15,710 --> 00:18:17,450 你知道床不是防水的 497 00:18:17,450 --> 00:18:18,309 这让我很生气 498 00:18:18,309 --> 00:18:19,670 但我真的很喜欢Cybertruck 499 00:18:19,670 --> 00:18:20,950 内饰非常出色 500 00:18:20,950 --> 00:18:22,150 我觉得这是一辆很棒的车 501 00:18:22,150 --> 00:18:24,369 我觉得线控转向技术太酷了 502 00:18:24,369 --> 00:18:25,190 我喜欢它 503 00:18:25,190 --> 00:18:26,309 这真是一辆很酷的车 504 00:18:26,309 --> 00:18:27,130 我是忠实粉丝 505 00:18:27,130 --> 00:18:28,509 所以我不是在贬低特斯拉 506 00:18:28,509 --> 00:18:31,279 你知道我爸爸还在开我的旧黑车 507 00:18:31,279 --> 00:18:32,619 他超爱 508 00:18:32,619 --> 00:18:33,920 由我妻子来开 509 00:18:33,920 --> 00:18:34,500 呃 510 00:18:34,500 --> 00:18:35,839 我的黑车 511 00:18:35,839 --> 00:18:36,519 呃 512 00:18:36,519 --> 00:18:37,449 她超喜欢 513 00:18:37,449 --> 00:18:38,368 这很棒 514 00:18:38,368 --> 00:18:39,828 她爱SD 515 00:18:39,828 --> 00:18:41,269 而且我过去总开玩笑说 516 00:18:41,269 --> 00:18:45,279 比如当妻子或岳父开始爱上SD 517 00:18:45,279 --> 00:18:49,019 我们可能已经达到了饱和点 518 00:18:49,019 --> 00:18:51,900 你知道在股票里SD已经炒到顶了 519 00:18:51,900 --> 00:18:53,859 现在可能快接近了 520 00:18:53,859 --> 00:18:54,859 不过话说回来 521 00:18:54,859 --> 00:18:56,279 你知道我们确实有些问题 522 00:18:56,279 --> 00:19:00,900 自动驾驶出租车正在扩展到休斯顿和达拉斯，覆盖25平方英里区域 523 00:19:00,900 --> 00:19:04,660 但这一切进展都比预期慢 524 00:19:04,660 --> 00:19:07,740 本应去年底覆盖二十个城市 525 00:19:07,740 --> 00:19:08,888 但还没实现 526 00:19:08,888 --> 00:19:09,709 在我看来 527 00:19:09,709 --> 00:19:11,429 这有两个主要原因 528 00:19:11,429 --> 00:19:14,348 更可能的原因是 529 00:19:14,348 --> 00:19:16,299 存在大量边缘案例 530 00:19:16,299 --> 00:19:19,279 而边缘案例的问题在于即使有神经网络 531 00:19:19,279 --> 00:19:20,779 每次遇到边缘案例 532 00:19:20,779 --> 00:19:23,140 都需要反复训练该场景 533 00:19:23,140 --> 00:19:25,900 然后重新运行算法神经网络 534 00:19:25,900 --> 00:19:28,150 反而会搞乱其他部分 535 00:19:28,150 --> 00:19:30,549 这是一个非常棘手的 536 00:19:30,549 --> 00:19:32,049 有时感觉是前进一步 537 00:19:32,049 --> 00:19:34,769 后退两步的情况 538 00:19:34,769 --> 00:19:35,150 呃 539 00:19:35,150 --> 00:19:36,089 算法训练 540 00:19:36,089 --> 00:19:36,690 呃 541 00:19:36,690 --> 00:19:36,990 你知道的 542 00:19:36,990 --> 00:19:38,750 我们在房地产领域也见过 543 00:19:38,750 --> 00:19:39,029 AI 544 00:19:39,029 --> 00:19:40,230 两个月后就要发布了 545 00:19:40,230 --> 00:19:42,039 我们非常期待 546 00:19:42,039 --> 00:19:42,700 不过确实 547 00:19:42,700 --> 00:19:43,259 我是说 548 00:19:43,259 --> 00:19:45,460 这就是AI的发展规律 549 00:19:45,460 --> 00:19:46,640 而驾驶领域 550 00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,460 你不可能处理这些边缘情况 551 00:19:48,460 --> 00:19:49,700 你知道在房地产AI领域 552 00:19:49,700 --> 00:19:52,289 你可以用驾驶致死的极端情况来处理边缘案例 553 00:19:52,289 --> 00:19:53,849 所以存在一个问题 554 00:19:53,849 --> 00:19:56,710 这就是为什么你知道自动驾驶出租车扩张缓慢 555 00:19:56,710 --> 00:19:59,809 很可能因为存在大量边缘案例场景 556 00:19:59,809 --> 00:20:01,809 不幸的是你知道 557 00:20:01,809 --> 00:20:06,180 Waymo在处理边缘案例上花的时间更多 558 00:20:06,180 --> 00:20:07,579 我可不是来闲聊的 559 00:20:07,579 --> 00:20:08,859 Waymo或激光雷达之类的 560 00:20:08,859 --> 00:20:09,299 我只是说 561 00:20:09,299 --> 00:20:10,920 他们在边缘案例上投入了更多时间 562 00:20:10,920 --> 00:20:13,000 我内心还有个小部分 563 00:20:13,000 --> 00:20:16,650 我认为这就是自动驾驶出租车仅在特定区域运行的原因 564 00:20:16,650 --> 00:20:18,410 要么是因为他们过于谨慎 565 00:20:18,410 --> 00:20:19,890 要么是因为他们在进行地图测绘 566 00:20:19,890 --> 00:20:21,369 这完全未经证实 567 00:20:21,369 --> 00:20:21,990 可能有误 568 00:20:21,990 --> 00:20:23,390 但如果说他们在测绘 569 00:20:23,390 --> 00:20:25,170 那就远远落后于Waymo 570 00:20:25,170 --> 00:20:27,730 所以我希望只是处理边缘案例 571 00:20:27,730 --> 00:20:29,569 但这很正常 572 00:20:29,569 --> 00:20:29,890 这 573 00:20:29,890 --> 00:20:32,289 现在需要时间 574 00:20:32,569 --> 00:20:34,210 彭博社也报道称 575 00:20:34,210 --> 00:20:37,029 马斯克正在寻找建设太阳能电池的场地 576 00:20:37,029 --> 00:20:40,160 可能高达百吉瓦的制造产能 577 00:20:40,160 --> 00:20:42,599 我认为这也是另一种方式 578 00:20:42,599 --> 00:20:44,019 马斯克在打压股价 579 00:20:44,019 --> 00:20:45,559 因为这成本极高 580 00:20:45,559 --> 00:20:47,740 而且是高度竞争的行业 581 00:20:51,220 --> 00:20:52,339 他们比德国人更优秀 582 00:20:52,339 --> 00:20:53,180 现在在太阳能板领域 583 00:20:53,180 --> 00:20:55,869 他们的QE电池效率更高且更便宜 584 00:20:55,869 --> 00:20:59,829 即使考虑关税，利润率依然很低 585 00:20:59,829 --> 00:21:01,888 所以我不明白他们为何这么做 586 00:21:01,888 --> 00:21:05,888 但我要告诉你，我对特斯拉太阳能很失望 587 00:21:05,888 --> 00:21:11,250 因为我一直在尝试为办公室安装特斯拉太阳能 588 00:21:11,490 --> 00:21:14,849 因为我们运行大量CPU和GPU 589 00:21:14,849 --> 00:21:16,109 它们不在同一地点 590 00:21:16,109 --> 00:21:17,980 分布在多个位置 591 00:21:17,980 --> 00:21:19,359 但在其中一个地点 592 00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:22,759 我们其中一个地点电费高达一千五百美元以上 593 00:21:22,759 --> 00:21:24,119 那里运行大量CPU 594 00:21:24,119 --> 00:21:25,519 全天候24/7 595 00:21:25,519 --> 00:21:26,690 简直疯狂 596 00:21:26,690 --> 00:21:27,990 不过暂且不论 597 00:21:27,990 --> 00:21:30,460 我不得不多次联系他们 598 00:21:30,460 --> 00:21:32,220 可能十次以上 599 00:21:32,220 --> 00:21:33,490 然后我说嘿 600 00:21:33,490 --> 00:21:35,630 什么时候会发生呢 601 00:21:35,630 --> 00:21:36,450 所以在这里 602 00:21:36,450 --> 00:21:37,269 我马上就来 603 00:21:37,269 --> 00:21:38,589 我觉得我可以上传这个 604 00:21:38,589 --> 00:21:41,239 屏幕这里 605 00:21:41,239 --> 00:21:43,578 所以是马修·巴拉 606 00:21:43,578 --> 00:21:44,199 周三 607 00:21:44,199 --> 00:21:47,299 1月14日已确认实际无需拆除出线 608 00:21:47,299 --> 00:21:51,339 但连接到主配电盘附近的设备需在检查前拆除 609 00:21:51,339 --> 00:21:52,880 只要拆除就行没问题 610 00:21:52,880 --> 00:21:53,700 请确认 611 00:21:53,700 --> 00:21:54,519 我写的是是 612 00:21:54,519 --> 00:21:55,480 已确认明白 613 00:21:55,480 --> 00:21:55,660 你 614 00:21:55,660 --> 00:21:56,500 我随即回复 615 00:21:56,500 --> 00:21:56,960 比如 616 00:21:56,960 --> 00:21:57,500 你知道的 617 00:21:57,500 --> 00:21:58,640 六小时同一天 618 00:21:58,640 --> 00:21:59,339 我这就处理 619 00:21:59,339 --> 00:22:00,819 然后我们获得批准 620 00:22:00,819 --> 00:22:01,380 我告诉他 621 00:22:01,380 --> 00:22:01,579 太好了 622 00:22:01,579 --> 00:22:02,700 我们获得业主批准 623 00:22:02,700 --> 00:22:04,759 那已经是一个月前了 624 00:22:04,759 --> 00:22:06,559 我多次发邮件联系他们 625 00:22:06,559 --> 00:22:07,059 我说嘿 626 00:22:07,059 --> 00:22:08,940 审批进展如何 一个月前 627 00:22:08,940 --> 00:22:10,619 那已经是七天前了 628 00:22:10,619 --> 00:22:12,079 还有其他变更 629 00:22:12,079 --> 00:22:12,779 哪里有链条 630 00:22:12,779 --> 00:22:13,420 我已发送了 631 00:22:13,420 --> 00:22:14,220 我们是否在安排 632 00:22:14,220 --> 00:22:14,539 比如 633 00:22:14,539 --> 00:22:15,099 我们在做什么 634 00:22:15,099 --> 00:22:16,160 这会发生吗 635 00:22:16,160 --> 00:22:17,640 没有回复 636 00:22:17,640 --> 00:22:19,119 没有电话 637 00:22:19,119 --> 00:22:21,579 我直接有特斯拉方案 638 00:22:21,579 --> 00:22:23,789 我已经办了许可证 639 00:22:23,789 --> 00:22:24,309 呃 640 00:22:24,309 --> 00:22:27,990 我们已准备齐全 只需联系特斯拉 641 00:22:27,990 --> 00:22:32,388 快点行动 说好安排日期 642 00:22:32,388 --> 00:22:33,868 这并不难 643 00:22:33,868 --> 00:22:35,009 我直接 644 00:22:35,009 --> 00:22:36,929 我展示计划图纸 645 00:22:37,328 --> 00:22:39,328 直接在这里 646 00:22:39,328 --> 00:22:40,449 你可以查看 647 00:22:40,449 --> 00:22:41,088 这就是我们的 648 00:22:41,088 --> 00:22:41,409 呃 649 00:22:41,409 --> 00:22:42,788 我们的办公室地址用于房屋 650 00:22:42,788 --> 00:22:44,170 就在那里动手 651 00:22:44,170 --> 00:22:45,690 这里是计划存放的地方 652 00:22:45,690 --> 00:22:47,589 你知道太阳能板或者其他东西 653 00:22:47,589 --> 00:22:48,569 我当时就说 654 00:22:48,569 --> 00:22:49,970 你们在干什么呢 655 00:22:49,970 --> 00:22:50,569 你知道的 656 00:22:50,569 --> 00:22:52,529 这是那个小呃 657 00:22:52,529 --> 00:22:52,930 呃 658 00:22:52,930 --> 00:22:55,279 特斯拉的标志，你可以看到他们 659 00:22:55,279 --> 00:22:57,559 当他们开始这里的时候 660 00:22:57,559 --> 00:22:58,759 特斯拉标志 661 00:22:58,759 --> 00:23:00,700 十一月二零二五年左右 662 00:23:00,700 --> 00:23:05,240 所有这些都准备就绪，而特斯拉在拖延 663 00:23:05,240 --> 00:23:06,359 而马斯克就像 664 00:23:06,359 --> 00:23:06,640 哦对啊 665 00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:08,140 我们想生产更多太阳能板 666 00:23:08,140 --> 00:23:08,880 所以我心想 667 00:23:08,880 --> 00:23:09,740 嗯 668 00:23:09,740 --> 00:23:11,900 这里到底发生了什么 669 00:23:11,900 --> 00:23:12,599 嗯 670 00:23:12,599 --> 00:23:16,049 事实证明，这是我的观点 671 00:23:16,049 --> 00:23:18,769 但事实是有人传言 672 00:23:18,769 --> 00:23:25,960 特斯拉真的想转向自己制造的太阳能板 673 00:23:25,960 --> 00:23:30,230 我觉得两者之间存在巨大差距 674 00:23:30,230 --> 00:23:33,089 我们先让其他人用我们的产品 675 00:23:33,089 --> 00:23:36,650 然后等待所有产品制造完成 676 00:23:36,930 --> 00:23:38,849 之后我们再开始推广 677 00:23:38,849 --> 00:23:39,509 太阳能板 678 00:23:39,509 --> 00:23:40,829 与此同时他们没有沟通 679 00:23:40,829 --> 00:23:42,569 或者他们 680 00:23:42,569 --> 00:23:47,089 由于关税，中国家庭电池价格过高 681 00:23:47,089 --> 00:23:49,299 我们需要拖延这个计划 682 00:23:49,299 --> 00:23:53,319 于是我查看他们的能源利润率 683 00:23:53,319 --> 00:23:55,909 他们的毛能利润仍然良好 684 00:23:55,909 --> 00:23:56,989 百分之三十九 685 00:23:56,989 --> 00:23:57,788 五 686 00:23:57,788 --> 00:23:59,449 这其实相当不错 687 00:23:59,449 --> 00:24:00,209 百分之三十九 688 00:24:00,209 --> 00:24:02,230 五的能源利润率 689 00:24:02,230 --> 00:24:04,369 但查看实际财报 690 00:24:04,369 --> 00:24:06,079 他们在电话会议中提到 691 00:24:06,079 --> 00:24:09,619 美国住宅太阳能市场正在经历调整 692 00:24:09,619 --> 00:24:12,638 去年失去家庭订单税收优惠后 693 00:24:12,638 --> 00:24:13,798 嗯特斯拉 694 00:24:13,798 --> 00:24:16,739 但下半年需求强劲复苏 695 00:24:16,739 --> 00:24:17,058 是的 696 00:24:17,058 --> 00:24:20,118 可能为了配合自家产品销售 697 00:24:20,118 --> 00:24:22,789 然后继续拖延他人 698 00:24:22,789 --> 00:24:23,230 这就是情况 699 00:24:23,230 --> 00:24:24,869 我猜长期来看可能看涨 700 00:24:24,869 --> 00:24:25,650 但眼下不是时候 701 00:24:25,650 --> 00:24:30,230 特斯拉推出租赁产品让我们能自行享受税收优惠 702 00:24:30,230 --> 00:24:33,869 所以他们可能不想卖给购车者 703 00:24:33,869 --> 00:24:35,470 因为我们直接购买太阳能板 704 00:24:35,470 --> 00:24:36,309 而他们想这么做 705 00:24:36,309 --> 00:24:37,450 我不知道发生了什么 706 00:24:37,450 --> 00:24:39,349 但缺乏沟通团队 707 00:24:39,349 --> 00:24:39,890 特斯拉 708 00:24:39,890 --> 00:24:41,009 那里肯定有情况 709 00:24:41,009 --> 00:24:43,230 我我我真不知道这很奇怪 710 00:24:43,230 --> 00:24:45,809 但我在努力拼凑线索 711 00:24:45,809 --> 00:24:50,539 我觉得这可能全都归咎于马斯克 712 00:24:50,539 --> 00:24:50,700 说 713 00:24:50,700 --> 00:24:50,859 是的 714 00:24:50,859 --> 00:24:51,019 是的 715 00:24:51,019 --> 00:24:52,589 我们要自己使用面板 716 00:24:52,589 --> 00:24:54,869 而他们实际想做的是 717 00:24:54,869 --> 00:24:59,000 试图在2026年虚报数据 718 00:24:59,000 --> 00:25:01,259 股票故意下跌 719 00:25:01,259 --> 00:25:04,369 马斯克可以用SpaceX低价购入 720 00:25:04,369 --> 00:25:05,789 我不是空头 721 00:25:05,789 --> 00:25:07,269 我没有做空特斯拉 722 00:25:07,269 --> 00:25:08,910 这点必须明确 723 00:25:08,910 --> 00:25:11,369 我的退休账户仍持有特斯拉 724 00:25:11,369 --> 00:25:14,049 比如HSA账户 725 00:25:14,049 --> 00:25:14,970 我希望它上涨 726 00:25:14,970 --> 00:25:15,529 好的 727 00:25:15,529 --> 00:25:18,170 我只是在拼凑信息碎片 728 00:25:18,170 --> 00:25:19,069 这真的很有趣 729 00:25:19,069 --> 00:25:22,319 对我来说因为你知道 730 00:25:22,319 --> 00:25:24,180 马斯克过去非常成功 731 00:25:24,180 --> 00:25:24,920 星链 732 00:25:24,920 --> 00:25:26,940 PayPal、SpaceX火箭 733 00:25:26,940 --> 00:25:27,859 杰夫·贝佐斯 734 00:25:27,859 --> 00:25:28,680 模仿他们 735 00:25:28,680 --> 00:25:30,789 Model S/X 三元组 736 00:25:30,789 --> 00:25:35,409 但现在我们对自动驾驶出租车规模化有严重担忧 737 00:25:35,409 --> 00:25:38,169 我们真的要进入Cybercab生产吗 738 00:25:38,169 --> 00:25:39,689 这真的会发生吗 739 00:25:39,689 --> 00:25:41,169 他们说会实现 740 00:25:41,169 --> 00:25:43,039 但已多次延期 741 00:25:43,039 --> 00:25:50,920 我们在德州奥斯汀外投资30亿美元建厂就像赌博 742 00:25:50,920 --> 00:25:53,460 在奥斯汀外建研究晶圆厂 743 00:25:53,460 --> 00:25:54,000 你知道的 744 00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:55,390 折腾芯片业务 745 00:25:55,390 --> 00:25:59,699 同时销量却在下滑 746 00:25:59,699 --> 00:26:01,739 Cybertruck完全由 747 00:26:01,739 --> 00:26:04,138 几乎被SpaceX收购 748 00:26:04,138 --> 00:26:08,420 我们在其他项目上也投入更多资金 749 00:26:08,420 --> 00:26:10,960 我们的利润率正在下降 750 00:26:10,960 --> 00:26:14,680 除非我们采取一次性关税或保修豁免 751 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:17,440 这会让我们的利润率看起来更好 752 00:26:17,440 --> 00:26:19,599 而我们的估值过高 753 00:26:19,599 --> 00:26:22,539 比如马斯克甚至不想以这个价格收购特斯拉 754 00:26:22,539 --> 00:26:23,960 因为这实在太贵了 755 00:26:23,960 --> 00:26:25,440 市盈率过高 756 00:26:27,039 --> 00:26:35,069 在此基础上你还在确认FSD美元哈斯收益 757 00:26:35,069 --> 00:26:35,829 换句话说 758 00:26:35,829 --> 00:26:36,809 我们现在有一个问题 759 00:26:36,809 --> 00:26:39,089 有两百八万人 760 00:26:39,089 --> 00:26:39,529 呃 761 00:26:39,529 --> 00:26:42,619 要么有SD订阅要么已全额支付 762 00:26:43,059 --> 00:26:46,079 其中很多人可能已经全额支付了 763 00:26:46,079 --> 00:26:47,940 所以我们收益并不显著 764 00:26:47,940 --> 00:26:50,900 但我们新增了十八万订阅用户 765 00:26:50,900 --> 00:26:53,339 相当于每月十八万美元 766 00:26:53,339 --> 00:26:54,400 这很棒 767 00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:59,500 但FSD订阅最近新增的每月十八万美元 768 00:26:59,500 --> 00:27:02,829 年化约两百一十六万美元 769 00:27:02,829 --> 00:27:07,630 远不及两百五十亿美元的资本支出 770 00:27:07,630 --> 00:27:14,079 他们计划用于Optimus工厂或其他 771 00:27:14,079 --> 00:27:15,420 Cybertruck生产 772 00:27:15,420 --> 00:27:20,509 这确实显示出我们正在经历非常奇怪的流程 773 00:27:20,509 --> 00:27:22,568 能源业务利润率良好 774 00:27:22,568 --> 00:27:25,368 但不知为何停滞了 775 00:27:26,049 --> 00:27:29,890 华尔街对能源板块预期大幅增长 776 00:27:29,890 --> 00:27:31,910 利润率一直很高 777 00:27:31,910 --> 00:27:33,170 目前仍高达三十九点 778 00:27:33,170 --> 00:27:33,569 五个百分点 779 00:27:33,569 --> 00:27:36,109 但增长停滞让我觉得 780 00:27:36,109 --> 00:27:38,369 他们在推卸大电池包销量波动的责任 781 00:27:38,369 --> 00:27:41,079 但我认为他们是在故意拖延 782 00:27:41,079 --> 00:27:43,299 然后他们会把责任推给 783 00:27:43,299 --> 00:27:43,940 你知道的 784 00:27:43,940 --> 00:27:46,279 市场或失去税收优惠 785 00:27:46,279 --> 00:27:46,759 或政策变化 786 00:27:46,759 --> 00:27:47,699 或其他因素 787 00:27:51,278 --> 00:27:53,778 相当于净利润的77% 788 00:27:53,778 --> 00:27:54,960 这简直疯狂 789 00:27:54,960 --> 00:27:58,420 他们仍在宣传Optimus工厂即将投产 790 00:27:58,420 --> 00:28:00,019 这又需要更多资本支出 791 00:28:00,019 --> 00:28:01,859 我正在分析的核心问题 792 00:28:01,859 --> 00:28:05,500 接下来几个月的重点将是持续投入 793 00:28:05,500 --> 00:28:05,660 投入 794 00:28:05,660 --> 00:28:05,819 投入 795 00:28:05,819 --> 00:28:05,980 投入 796 00:28:05,980 --> 00:28:07,460 持续投入 797 00:28:07,740 --> 00:28:10,240 短期内难见明显增长 798 00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:14,940 这为SpaceX完美切入创造了机会 799 00:28:14,940 --> 00:28:15,929 事实上 800 00:28:15,929 --> 00:28:16,828 事实上 801 00:28:16,828 --> 00:28:17,648 你开玩笑吧 802 00:28:17,648 --> 00:28:18,348 你不是 803 00:28:18,348 --> 00:28:19,588 首席财务官 804 00:28:19,588 --> 00:28:21,288 首席财务官 805 00:28:21,288 --> 00:28:25,980 财务总监明确表示我们应预期全年剩余时间出现负自由现金流 806 00:28:25,980 --> 00:28:26,740 准备好听这个了吗 807 00:28:26,740 --> 00:28:29,759 我们已经开始为研发项目下单采购 808 00:28:29,759 --> 00:28:30,619 半导体 809 00:28:30,619 --> 00:28:33,730 在奥斯汀建设太阳能制造设备工厂 810 00:28:33,730 --> 00:28:34,789 嗯你知道的 811 00:28:34,789 --> 00:28:35,410 其他半导体 812 00:28:35,410 --> 00:28:36,650 虽然这看起来很多 813 00:28:36,650 --> 00:28:40,609 并将对全年剩余时间产生负自由现金流影响 814 00:28:40,609 --> 00:28:42,109 我们认为这是正确的策略 815 00:28:43,349 --> 00:28:45,069 故意放水 816 00:28:45,660 --> 00:28:47,779 他们不仅在扩展太阳能业务 817 00:28:47,779 --> 00:28:49,119 也在发展自身半导体业务 818 00:28:49,119 --> 00:28:51,220 正在推进的Dojo三号项目 819 00:28:51,220 --> 00:28:55,420 而自动驾驶出租车本应开始建设并规模化 820 00:28:55,420 --> 00:28:57,420 而Optimus项目本应开始建设 821 00:28:57,420 --> 00:28:58,609 现在就要建设并规模化 822 00:28:58,609 --> 00:29:00,029 高盛仍持看涨态度 823 00:29:00,029 --> 00:29:00,609 他们看涨 824 00:29:00,609 --> 00:29:01,210 自动驾驶出租车 825 00:29:01,210 --> 00:29:02,289 Optimus和FSC 826 00:29:02,289 --> 00:29:04,809 但像摩根这样的公司 827 00:29:04,809 --> 00:29:05,130 斯坦利 828 00:29:05,130 --> 00:29:06,210 尤其是可能看涨 829 00:29:06,210 --> 00:29:07,890 因为他们想向马斯克放贷 830 00:29:07,890 --> 00:29:10,059 并参与IPO 831 00:29:10,180 --> 00:29:14,240 综合所有信息来看 832 00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,909 特斯拉短期前景堪忧 833 00:29:16,909 --> 00:29:20,068 可能会被 meme 股压制 834 00:29:20,068 --> 00:29:21,859 SpaceX股票的逼空行情 835 00:29:21,859 --> 00:29:24,279 该股可能飙升至月球 836 00:29:24,279 --> 00:29:25,880 流通盘规模极小 837 00:29:25,880 --> 00:29:30,490 所有人都会抢购这只股票 838 00:29:30,650 --> 00:29:32,950 所以我不看空 839 00:29:32,950 --> 00:29:34,099 马斯克集团 840 00:29:34,099 --> 00:29:37,829 我认为特斯拉短期存在问题 841 00:29:37,829 --> 00:29:42,369 但长期马斯克在构建控制权 842 00:29:42,369 --> 00:29:44,369 这就是核心所在 843 00:29:44,369 --> 00:29:46,200 这就是关键所在 844 00:29:46,200 --> 00:29:47,839 需要理解 845 00:29:47,839 --> 00:29:52,880 当特斯拉宣布将投入25亿美元资本支出 846 00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:53,989 你应该问 847 00:29:53,989 --> 00:29:56,689 这笔资金从何而来啊 848 00:29:56,689 --> 00:29:57,108 好的 849 00:29:57,108 --> 00:29:57,308 嗯 850 00:29:57,308 --> 00:29:57,989 让我看看这里 851 00:29:57,989 --> 00:30:00,799 现金应收账款为四千八百六十万 852 00:30:00,799 --> 00:30:02,900 我有三十三点六的账单 853 00:30:02,900 --> 00:30:03,279 好的 854 00:30:03,279 --> 00:30:06,680 所以四十八点六五减去三十点 855 00:30:06,680 --> 00:30:08,099 六六的账单 856 00:30:08,099 --> 00:30:13,829 所以我有十八亿美元的自由现金流和十四亿美元销售缓慢的汽车 857 00:30:13,829 --> 00:30:15,910 长期债务为二十一亿美元 858 00:30:17,109 --> 00:30:20,920 我们没有额外二十五亿美元用于资本支出 859 00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:23,180 我们的现金流已经将转为负值 860 00:30:23,180 --> 00:30:25,880 所以我们需要外部资金注入 861 00:30:25,880 --> 00:30:28,750 如果特斯拉开始发行新股 862 00:30:28,750 --> 00:30:30,690 这会使其收购难度增加 863 00:30:30,690 --> 00:30:32,609 但可能立即拖累股价走势 864 00:30:32,609 --> 00:30:34,269 他们实际上可以发行部分股份 865 00:30:34,269 --> 00:30:35,679 或者马斯克出售部分股份 866 00:30:35,679 --> 00:30:38,439 启动下行趋势并让市场自行运作 867 00:30:38,439 --> 00:30:40,740 随后SpaceX收购该公司 868 00:30:40,740 --> 00:30:42,980 我知道这有些推测性 869 00:30:42,980 --> 00:30:45,119 但我想提供这一分析片段 870 00:30:45,119 --> 00:30:46,740 我的反应是 871 00:30:46,740 --> 00:30:48,049 请告诉我你的看法 872 00:30:48,049 --> 00:30:50,329 这是我们在这里进行的分析类型 873 00:30:50,329 --> 00:30:51,230 凯文·康 874 00:30:51,230 --> 00:30:54,759 我们即将推出几款课程会员的新产品 875 00:30:54,759 --> 00:30:56,920 非常期待与大家分享成果 876 00:30:56,920 --> 00:30:58,160 嗯是的 877 00:30:58,160 --> 00:30:58,720 敬请关注 878 00:30:58,720 --> 00:30:59,799 非常感谢大家的到来 879 00:30:59,799 --> 00:31:00,720 我们下次再见 880 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:01,480 再见，祝你好运 881 00:31:01,480 --> 00:31:02,220 哦小提示 882 00:31:02,220 --> 00:31:06,019 顺便说一下，我非常享受与劳伦去纽约的旅行 883 00:31:06,019 --> 00:31:07,900 我想快速告诉大家几件事 884 00:31:07,900 --> 00:31:09,380 如果你想继续听请尽管 885 00:31:09,380 --> 00:31:10,480 如果不介意也没关系 886 00:31:10,480 --> 00:31:12,079 主要内容已经结束 887 00:31:12,079 --> 00:31:14,059 我只是想保持尊重 888 00:31:14,059 --> 00:31:14,940 但啊 889 00:31:14,940 --> 00:31:15,980 我们遇到了 890 00:31:15,980 --> 00:31:16,579 呃 891 00:31:16,579 --> 00:31:19,619 在百老汇遇见弗兰基·格兰德 892 00:31:19,619 --> 00:31:21,460 我觉得这很棒 893 00:31:21,460 --> 00:31:22,839 弗兰基·格兰德 894 00:31:22,839 --> 00:31:23,839 我们嗯 895 00:31:23,839 --> 00:31:24,380 呃 896 00:31:24,380 --> 00:31:27,150 我们十年前在《名人老大哥》里看过他 897 00:31:27,150 --> 00:31:29,670 当第十六季的德里克获胜时 898 00:31:29,670 --> 00:31:31,819 这简直是有史以来最好的一季之一 899 00:31:31,819 --> 00:31:33,500 我们看了《泰坦尼克号》这部剧 900 00:31:33,500 --> 00:31:35,700 我想他是那艘船的船长 901 00:31:35,700 --> 00:31:36,359 这种类型 902 00:31:36,359 --> 00:31:38,859 啊《泰坦尼克号》我简直爱死它了 903 00:31:38,859 --> 00:31:43,329 我记得船体设计能承受四个舱室 904 00:31:43,329 --> 00:31:43,890 填充 905 00:31:43,890 --> 00:31:45,220 但不是五个 906 00:31:45,220 --> 00:31:47,059 这艘船不会沉的 907 00:31:47,059 --> 00:31:48,710 她是由铁打造的 908 00:31:48,710 --> 00:31:50,569 或者不管她用什么材料都是铁 909 00:31:50,569 --> 00:31:51,549 我保证她绝对能航行 910 00:31:51,549 --> 00:31:52,509 我记不太清楚这个了 911 00:31:52,509 --> 00:31:54,309 但但我超爱《泰坦尼克号》 912 00:31:54,309 --> 00:31:55,730 觉得这很棒 913 00:31:55,730 --> 00:31:58,369 强烈推荐《泰坦尼克号》 914 00:31:58,369 --> 00:31:59,970 如果你喜欢的话 915 00:31:59,970 --> 00:32:01,869 有点像滑稽的泰坦 916 00:32:01,869 --> 00:32:04,450 啊《泰坦尼克号》启发了席琳·迪翁 917 00:32:04,450 --> 00:32:05,289 这类东西 918 00:32:05,289 --> 00:32:06,170 劳伦超喜欢 919 00:32:06,170 --> 00:32:07,369 我没想过会喜欢 920 00:32:07,369 --> 00:32:08,369 我真的超喜欢 921 00:32:08,369 --> 00:32:11,960 啊劳伦买了好多东西 922 00:32:11,960 --> 00:32:13,099 比如服装 923 00:32:13,099 --> 00:32:14,839 我还买了一个锣 924 00:32:14,839 --> 00:32:20,960 嗯之后再说我们做了个地下墓穴之旅 925 00:32:20,960 --> 00:32:24,190 更像是地下墓穴 926 00:32:24,190 --> 00:32:25,670 这地方啊 927 00:32:25,670 --> 00:32:27,670 纽约应该只有一处 928 00:32:27,670 --> 00:32:29,659 供天主教堂使用 929 00:32:29,659 --> 00:32:31,798 你可以谷歌搜索烛光 930 00:32:31,798 --> 00:32:33,558 纽约烛光墓穴 931 00:32:33,558 --> 00:32:34,138 挺酷的 932 00:32:34,138 --> 00:32:34,699 值得去 933 00:32:34,699 --> 00:32:36,450 预算留一小时 934 00:32:36,450 --> 00:32:37,089 有点意思 935 00:32:37,089 --> 00:32:38,289 尤其在雨天冷天 936 00:32:38,289 --> 00:32:39,089 还挺有意思的 937 00:32:39,089 --> 00:32:41,450 和劳伦去纳斯达克看了看 938 00:32:41,450 --> 00:32:42,730 那真是太酷了 939 00:32:42,730 --> 00:32:43,349 啊 940 00:32:43,349 --> 00:32:44,670 巴斯图超搞笑 941 00:32:44,670 --> 00:32:48,019 如果你想看一场荒诞的即兴表演 942 00:32:48,019 --> 00:32:49,480 充满疯狂的日本元素 943 00:32:49,480 --> 00:32:49,920 就像 944 00:32:49,920 --> 00:32:51,640 这完全是对日本文化的侮辱 945 00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:53,539 啊文化 946 00:32:53,539 --> 00:32:55,529 因为日本文化不是这样的 947 00:32:55,529 --> 00:33:01,390 但如果你喜欢别人调侃忍者和日本事物 948 00:33:01,390 --> 00:33:03,309 在互相用彩弹枪射击时 949 00:33:03,309 --> 00:33:04,829 那真是太棒了 950 00:33:04,829 --> 00:33:06,470 呃啊呃啊 951 00:33:06,470 --> 00:33:07,670 总的来说我不得不说 952 00:33:07,670 --> 00:33:10,250 我们这几天逃出来玩得很开心 953 00:33:10,250 --> 00:33:11,650 所以非常感谢 954 00:33:11,650 --> 00:33:13,089 我总是很感激你 955 00:33:13,089 --> 00:33:15,329 你们显然支持了我们 956 00:33:15,329 --> 00:33:17,299 但我们在搭建房屋时做的事 957 00:33:17,299 --> 00:33:19,119 以及我们在房地产领域做的事 958 00:33:19,119 --> 00:33:19,859 还有我们的课程 959 00:33:19,859 --> 00:33:22,660 这确实能让你知道 960 00:33:22,660 --> 00:33:24,059 不仅能够分享这些内容 961 00:33:24,059 --> 00:33:26,019 还能与你分享经验 962 00:33:26,019 --> 00:33:27,319 总之不管怎样 963 00:33:27,319 --> 00:33:28,960 非常感谢你们的到来和观看 964 00:33:28,960 --> 00:33:29,319 呃 965 00:33:29,319 --> 00:33:29,480 抱歉 966 00:33:29,480 --> 00:33:29,960 刚才有点 967 00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:30,880 时间有点长 968 00:33:30,880 --> 00:33:31,960 我们下次再见 969 00:33:31,960 --> 00:33:32,759 再见再见 970 00:33:32,759 --> 00:33:34,900 为什么不在这里宣传这些内容呢 971 00:33:34,900 --> 00:33:36,640 我觉得没人知道这件事 972 00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:38,839 我们试试小范围推广看看效果 973 00:33:38,839 --> 00:33:39,880 恭喜兄弟 974 00:33:39,880 --> 00:33:40,640 你做了这么多 975 00:33:40,640 --> 00:33:41,480 大家都喜欢你 976 00:33:41,480 --> 00:33:41,700 人们 977 00:33:41,700 --> 00:33:42,400 都敬佩你 978 00:33:42,400 --> 00:33:43,460 就是凯文帕弗拉特 979 00:33:43,460 --> 00:33:45,240 金融分析师兼YouTuber 980 00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:45,880 认识一下凯文 981 00:33:45,880 --> 00:33:47,299 很高兴听到你的观点
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