意料之外的回报率

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伴随四季度财报出炉

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一夜之间台积电又火了

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今天的主题会从往期回顾开始

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分析最新的财报

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以及聊聊为何台积电正在成为AI泡沫的抑制器

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以及制造业的上限到底有多高

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一往期回顾

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我坚持认为观点的分享

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无论是对是错

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00:00:18,710 --> 00:00:19,929
应当做到言行一致

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并且逻辑自洽

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正是这个原因

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我坚持在星球分享个人交易记录

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也不删除任何曾经说错过的内容

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我自己第一次买入台积电是在2024年3月

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00:00:29,280 --> 00:00:31,640
当时英伟达正处于暴涨阶段

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占据我的账户比重已接近四成

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因此有了多样化的必要

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我不期待它像英伟达那样一年涨几倍

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但这家公司一定要有核心竞争力

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要吃到这一轮科技和AI发展的红利

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同时估值又不能太贵

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找来找去

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半导体板块里最便宜的除了台积电

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就是英伟达

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而且台积电护城河非常深厚

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所以选择了台积电

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可参考往期三个月获利20%加

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我为何看上这家公司

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2025年对等关税恐慌时期

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包括台积电在内的众多优质公司

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迎来了一次典型的黄金坑

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以台积电为例

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也因对等关税冲击

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一度低至133美元

36
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回顾过去九个月

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这样一家市值巨大

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商业模式成熟的制造业公司

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股价能够在九个月的时间

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拥有156%的回报率

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这是意料之外的事

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当然这也是托川普的福

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当时的低价格是对等关税消息砸出来的

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在对等关税时期

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我的观点可参考

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重回绝望时刻

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我们在去年10月前一次财报时

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通过主题制造业中的印钞机

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专门谈过台积电恐怖的毛利水平

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当时毛利提升到了60%

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而在新的第四季度

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这个数字增长到了62%

53
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下个季度预测将达到63%

54
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至六十五二%

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亮眼财报

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在2025年四季度

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台积电营收同比增长25.5%

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至1万460点900000000新台币

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超出指引上限

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净利润5057.4亿新台币

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同比增长35%

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台积电四季度毛利率62.3%

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大幅超出59%至61%

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指引区间同比提升3.3个百分点

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更高的毛利证明台积电的定价能力更强

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护城河变得更深更宽

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在四季度营收中

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7NM及以下先进制程贡献了77%

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其中3NM占比达到28%

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五

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纳米占35%

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显示出3NM产能爬坡非常成功

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这也是毛利提升的关键动力所在

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台积电还预计

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2026全年美元营收将增长接近30%

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远高于市场此前预测的

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20%至25%

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台积电对2026年一季度

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营收指引

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将在346亿至358亿美元之间

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毛利率指引进一步提升

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63%至65%

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这个毛利相比一个季度前进一步显著提升

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总的来说

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这是一份没有短板的财报

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无论是财报本身还是业绩指引

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无论是业绩的整体数字还是组成结构

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都挑不出毛病

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财报后

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台积电在美国市场上周四一度暴涨7%

91
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最终上涨4.4%

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收于341美元

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我们无法预测未来一天一周或一个月

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这家公司会给我们带来怎样的回报

95
00:03:06,399 --> 00:03:09,118
也不指望像过去九个月时间里暴涨一倍多

96
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但我的观点和过去一致

97
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那就是伴随技术的进步和业绩的上升

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但台积电在相当长的一段时间内

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可以给到有耐心的长期投资者

100
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年化20%至30%的回报

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3AI泡沫的抑制器

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现在以及未来相当长一段时间里

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限制台积电营收和利润增长的瓶颈

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根本不是需求

105
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而是产能

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AI算力需求的爆发

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使得台积电即使全力扩展产能

108
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也还是跟不上强劲增长的需求

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根据研究机构eli fia capital的调研

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如果台积电不加大力度扩充covers产能

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那么在2027年就会有1/3的产能缺口

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但如果我们换一个角度看

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台积电的产能限制是一个AI泡沫抑制器

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如果台积电的产能充足

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那么全球对于数据中心的投资

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在激烈竞争之下

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科技公司加杠杆投资

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最终即便需求增长

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但供应增长更快

120
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然后酿成巨大泡沫也是有可能的

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但实际情况是

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台积电产能有限

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甚至距离客户需求的差距越来越大

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这使得产能成为限制其自身营收增长

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甚至限制英伟达等上游客户增长的最大瓶颈

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最终产能的限制

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运平投资在短时间内的泡沫化

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让AI产业有时间在泡沫涨起来之前

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得以更大发展和应用

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四制造业的神话

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制造业往往都是重资产

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加高风险

133
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加低毛利

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在制造业中30%毛利算优秀

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40%算卓越

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而台积电在需要巨额投入的半导体制造领域

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做到62%的毛利

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而且还能进一步提升

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只能说明两件事

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一不可替代

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客户排队送钱

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没有讨价还价余地

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二极致效率

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规模效应和良率控制已经到达艺术的级别

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台积电也证明了一件事

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当制造业的技术做到极致

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规模做到极致

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信任做到极致时

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它可以比互联网和金融更赚钱

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在主题的最后

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我想重复强调过去几年说过很多次的两个观点

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一从台积电的工艺到英伟达的芯片

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再到微软

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亚马逊

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谷歌的云计算及应用

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AI产业链上不同位置都难以被取代

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这条AI链的上下游

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未来都会拥有相近的长期年化增长速度

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这个超长赛道足以满足绝大多数人的投资目标

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这些机会永远都在等着我们

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越早进入并坚持越长的时间

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我们就能获取越多的回报

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2AI时代已经到来

164
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他正快速替代越来越多的岗位

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改变越来越多的行业

166
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我们普通人应该珍惜工作

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长期投资

168
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在AI可能颠覆自己的岗位之前

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尽快完成财富积累

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台积电虽然已是新高

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但还有不少护城河和创新力

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不亚于台积电的杰出企业

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仍然在打折中

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比如推动台积电增长的AI王者英伟达

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相比高点仍八八折

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又比如全球第二大且高速增长中的云服务巨头

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微软还在打八三折

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真正的好公司

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不会给到你一个月翻倍的投机快感

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但会给到你翻倍后还能安心持有

181
00:06:03,579 --> 00:06:05,800
并且期待未来的安全感和满足感

182
00:06:05,800 --> 00:06:07,560
在这个充满不确定性的世界

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这些伟大企业源源不断的创新和盈利能力

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就是我们投资者最大的确定性

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如果你喜欢本期视频

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希望可以点赞关注

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支持一波

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这将对我有很大的帮助

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