涨得我害怕~~ NaNa说美股(2026.04.15)

1
00:00:13,179 --> 00:00:13,740
大家好

2
00:00:13,740 --> 00:00:14,539
欢迎回到娜娜说

3
00:00:14,539 --> 00:00:16,320
美股今天是4月15号

4
00:00:16,320 --> 00:00:16,820
周三

5
00:00:16,820 --> 00:00:18,739
美股连续数日大涨后呢

6
00:00:18,739 --> 00:00:20,559
依然拒绝休整

7
00:00:20,559 --> 00:00:24,120
标普500指数和纳指今天双双创下历史新高

8
00:00:24,120 --> 00:00:27,250
只有老大哥豆子类的扶墙喘气

9
00:00:27,250 --> 00:00:30,329
资金正像疯了一样从周期股撤离

10
00:00:30,329 --> 00:00:32,939
挤破头的往科技股里面钻

11
00:00:32,939 --> 00:00:36,899
投资者对美伊和平协议的前景更为乐观

12
00:00:37,840 --> 00:00:39,060
若双方已经接近

13
00:00:39,060 --> 00:00:42,299
达成一项结束冲突的框架性协议

14
00:00:42,299 --> 00:00:44,259
原则上同意延长停火

15
00:00:44,259 --> 00:00:46,460
以争取更多的外交时间

16
00:00:46,460 --> 00:00:48,179
随后彭博社也跟进说

17
00:00:48,179 --> 00:00:49,579
要再续两周

18
00:00:49,579 --> 00:00:52,219
川普更是直接宣布战争已经结束

19
00:00:52,219 --> 00:00:53,719
最终结果很快出来

20
00:00:53,719 --> 00:00:54,600
结果后面呢

21
00:00:57,399 --> 00:00:58,320
表示没同意

22
00:00:58,320 --> 00:00:58,880
没证实

23
00:00:58,880 --> 00:00:59,709
别瞎说

24
00:00:59,709 --> 00:01:03,590
这场戏演到现在就像俩人街头打架

25
00:01:03,590 --> 00:01:05,189
双方都已经打不动了

26
00:01:05,189 --> 00:01:07,250
但是嘴上一定要骂骂咧咧的

27
00:01:07,250 --> 00:01:09,870
周围一群劝架的在那喊上鸟

28
00:01:09,870 --> 00:01:11,390
上鸟都不容易啊

29
00:01:11,390 --> 00:01:15,010
然后呢两人还要一边走一边回头放狠话

30
00:01:15,010 --> 00:01:17,329
时不时的还得再冲上前走两步

31
00:01:17,329 --> 00:01:19,168
旁边的人赶紧拉架

32
00:01:19,168 --> 00:01:23,388
五角大楼虽然继续向中东增派了数千兵力

33
00:01:23,388 --> 00:01:24,588
美军在波斯湾

34
00:01:24,588 --> 00:01:28,120
摆出了三个航母战斗群的封锁架势

35
00:01:28,120 --> 00:01:29,879
但是明眼人都看得出来

36
00:01:29,879 --> 00:01:32,689
5万美军顶多过去拆房子

37
00:01:32,689 --> 00:01:34,670
真要是打全面战争

38
00:01:34,670 --> 00:01:36,920
没个20万的兵力打不下来

39
00:01:36,920 --> 00:01:38,000
打到现在呢

40
00:01:38,000 --> 00:01:39,659
川普其实也看明白了

41
00:01:39,659 --> 00:01:42,519
伊朗革命卫队的基本盘还是很大

42
00:01:42,519 --> 00:01:43,900
推翻不太可能

43
00:01:43,900 --> 00:01:45,659
地面战风险太大

44
00:01:45,659 --> 00:01:47,560
彻底解决伊朗问题啊

45
00:01:47,560 --> 00:01:49,120
只能够留给后人

46
00:01:49,120 --> 00:01:50,439
现在极限施压

47
00:01:50,439 --> 00:01:54,420
不过是为了在第二轮谈判桌上多要两块筹码

48
00:01:54,420 --> 00:01:58,168
只要看清双方都不想真动手的底牌

49
00:01:58,168 --> 00:02:02,368
就能理解为什么现在市场彻底无视了地缘风险

50
00:02:02,368 --> 00:02:03,890
到最后嗯

51
00:02:03,890 --> 00:02:06,469
估计双方还是会达成和平协议的哈

52
00:02:06,469 --> 00:02:08,270
川普可以宣布自己赢了

53
00:02:08,270 --> 00:02:11,069
以色列呢也缓解了生存焦虑

54
00:02:11,069 --> 00:02:14,669
革命卫队可以宣称自己赶跑了侵略者

55
00:02:14,669 --> 00:02:16,930
继续掌握统治权力

56
00:02:16,930 --> 00:02:18,189
比双赢还好

57
00:02:18,189 --> 00:02:19,490
那就是双赢

58
00:02:22,189 --> 00:02:24,370
市场现在基本已经完全定价了

59
00:02:24,370 --> 00:02:27,599
美伊的第二轮谈判将会达成和平协议

60
00:02:27,599 --> 00:02:29,439
如果届时这个预期落空

61
00:02:29,439 --> 00:02:33,430
那油价就会弹缓松开暴力再冲上去

62
00:02:33,430 --> 00:02:35,909
美债收益率呢近日持续回落

63
00:02:35,909 --> 00:02:39,009
反映出市场博弈通胀溢价的消退

64
00:02:39,009 --> 00:02:41,610
mix今天早盘10:30结算后

65
00:02:41,610 --> 00:02:43,490
虽然小幅回升了一些哈

66
00:02:43,490 --> 00:02:44,919
当天仍然下跌

67
00:02:44,919 --> 00:02:47,520
市场对风险的钝化已经到了极致

68
00:02:47,520 --> 00:02:49,159
大家不再买入铺

69
00:02:49,159 --> 00:02:52,389
甚至在结算后继续卖出波动率

70
00:02:52,389 --> 00:02:54,270
由于VX持续低迷

71
00:02:54,270 --> 00:02:57,960
都是三不需要卖出标普500期货来对冲

72
00:02:57,960 --> 00:03:00,819
反而因为标普500指数越过了7000点

73
00:03:00,819 --> 00:03:03,030
触发了更高位的伽马挤压

74
00:03:03,030 --> 00:03:05,669
但是这个压力并没有说就消失了

75
00:03:05,669 --> 00:03:09,610
而是被羁押到了这个周五的期权结算日

76
00:03:09,610 --> 00:03:13,699
那只能连续11个交易日垂直进攻

77
00:03:13,699 --> 00:03:15,299
ISI超过70

78
00:03:15,299 --> 00:03:17,479
是超卖超过80

79
00:03:17,479 --> 00:03:19,520
极度超卖接近90

80
00:03:19,520 --> 00:03:21,300
那就是情绪失控了呀

81
00:03:21,300 --> 00:03:24,060
市场目前完全没有人在卖哈

82
00:03:24,060 --> 00:03:28,500
全部都是机器人和踏空资金在不计成本的扫货

83
00:03:28,500 --> 00:03:31,419
日线走势出现了三个跳空缺口

84
00:03:31,419 --> 00:03:32,659
第一个缺口巨大

85
00:03:32,659 --> 00:03:34,819
第二个缺口呢昨天才刚形成

86
00:03:34,819 --> 00:03:36,069
相对小一些

87
00:03:36,069 --> 00:03:36,909
今天又出现

88
00:03:36,909 --> 00:03:38,229
第三个缺口很小

89
00:03:38,229 --> 00:03:40,110
不注意看都不一定能发现

90
00:03:40,110 --> 00:03:41,449
从技术面来说

91
00:03:41,449 --> 00:03:45,129
连续三个跳空缺口对多头的动能消耗过大

92
00:03:45,129 --> 00:03:47,919
橡皮筋已经拉到了断裂的边缘

93
00:03:47,919 --> 00:03:51,159
指数收盘还突破了前面的双重顶部

94
00:03:51,159 --> 00:03:54,310
和2万4000点超级整数大关

95
00:03:54,310 --> 00:03:57,469
虽然日K距离5日均线的偏离度很大

96
00:03:57,469 --> 00:04:02,219
但是几条短期均线呢都呈现完美的向上发散状

97
00:04:02,219 --> 00:04:03,939
这意味着从中长线来看

98
00:04:03,939 --> 00:04:05,680
上升趋势不仅没有破坏

99
00:04:05,680 --> 00:04:08,189
反而由于这一次暴利反弹

100
00:04:08,189 --> 00:04:12,219
把之前的下跌空间给彻底修复了

101
00:04:12,219 --> 00:04:14,439
但是这种脱轨飞行啊

102
00:04:14,439 --> 00:04:15,180
通常意味着

103
00:04:15,180 --> 00:04:19,920
短期内会有一次快速的剧烈的回踩抽分

104
00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:21,339
按照历史经验呢

105
00:04:21,339 --> 00:04:24,740
在新高附近也容易出现这种洗盘的动作

106
00:04:24,740 --> 00:04:26,939
当市场进入了癫狂期

107
00:04:26,939 --> 00:04:30,079
幽默感就会以最离谱的方式呈现

108
00:04:30,079 --> 00:04:32,220
比如像贝尔这支小票

109
00:04:32,220 --> 00:04:35,629
今天单日暴涨了582%

110
00:04:35,629 --> 00:04:38,029
这家原本生意惨淡

111
00:04:38,029 --> 00:04:40,689
卖羊毛血卖到快退市的公司

112
00:04:40,689 --> 00:04:42,709
仅仅因为今天宣布改行

113
00:04:42,709 --> 00:04:44,430
要搞显卡租赁

114
00:04:44,430 --> 00:04:46,389
并且在名字里面加了AI

115
00:04:46,389 --> 00:04:49,329
而股价直接就表演了原地上天

116
00:04:49,329 --> 00:04:52,350
这种AI贴牌式的群魔乱舞哈

117
00:04:52,350 --> 00:04:55,220
通常是狂欢宴会即将收场

118
00:04:55,220 --> 00:04:58,970
就连保洁阿姨都忍不住想买粮食的标准信号

119
00:04:58,970 --> 00:05:02,230
标普500指数呢从6300.1路狂飙

120
00:05:02,230 --> 00:05:04,149
冲上了7000点哈

121
00:05:04,149 --> 00:05:07,559
把这个7000点的天花板直接给掀翻了

122
00:05:07,559 --> 00:05:10,220
最后一段往往是涨得最快最狠的

123
00:05:10,220 --> 00:05:14,709
这是一场有全方位的投降式买入引发的熔涨

124
00:05:14,709 --> 00:05:18,009
对冲基金在3月底全面做空压住

125
00:05:18,009 --> 00:05:22,230
导致他们在本轮反弹中经历了惨烈的踩踏

126
00:05:22,230 --> 00:05:22,930
过去一周

127
00:05:22,930 --> 00:05:25,949
对冲基金呢被迫以近两年最快的速度

128
00:05:25,949 --> 00:05:27,350
平掉空头头寸

129
00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:30,670
直接把多头进场口给推到了历史前

130
00:05:30,670 --> 00:05:33,069
15%的极端水平哈

131
00:05:33,069 --> 00:05:35,550
很多基金经理嘴上虽然还在犹豫

132
00:05:35,550 --> 00:05:37,810
手里面已经满仓做多了

133
00:05:37,810 --> 00:05:39,829
但是真正把市场拖住

134
00:05:39,829 --> 00:05:42,889
没有让它在3月份直接塌掉的

135
00:05:42,889 --> 00:05:45,288
而不是这些被动转动的对冲基金

136
00:05:45,288 --> 00:05:46,588
而是企业回购

137
00:05:46,588 --> 00:05:49,488
今年一季度的企业回购授权规模呢

138
00:05:49,488 --> 00:05:51,579
创下了历史同期新高

139
00:05:51,579 --> 00:05:53,139
在指数下跌的时候

140
00:05:53,139 --> 00:05:55,990
提供了最强大的价格地板

141
00:05:55,990 --> 00:05:59,230
但是随着4月中旬财报季的临近

142
00:05:59,230 --> 00:06:01,149
绝大多数美国上市公司呢

143
00:06:01,149 --> 00:06:03,540
已经开始进入了回购静默期

144
00:06:03,540 --> 00:06:06,040
这意味着在接下来的3~4周

145
00:06:06,040 --> 00:06:08,980
那个最有钱的接盘侠暂时下班了

146
00:06:08,980 --> 00:06:10,040
与此同时

147
00:06:10,040 --> 00:06:15,139
这一轮容展最核心的机械动力CCTA量化基金哈

148
00:06:15,139 --> 00:06:19,399
正处于10年来规模最大的买入狂潮当中

149
00:06:19,399 --> 00:06:24,139
由于VIX波动率崩溃和指数关键技术位的收复

150
00:06:24,139 --> 00:06:26,379
这些量化模型已经从空头

151
00:06:26,379 --> 00:06:29,240
直接切换到了无脑扫货模式

152
00:06:29,240 --> 00:06:33,788
高盛预测的450亿美元的这个买盘呢

153
00:06:33,788 --> 00:06:38,199
在这几天的暴涨中被大量提前消耗了

154
00:06:38,199 --> 00:06:39,839
预计到下个周一

155
00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:40,939
4月20号

156
00:06:40,939 --> 00:06:43,579
CCTA摆盘就会彻底枯竭

157
00:06:44,100 --> 00:06:46,019
散户们也在此时完成了

158
00:06:46,019 --> 00:06:49,509
从观望到报复性入场的华丽转身

159
00:06:49,509 --> 00:06:51,910
末日看涨期权买到飞起

160
00:06:51,910 --> 00:06:53,709
这种操作翻译一下

161
00:06:53,709 --> 00:06:55,550
就是不想错过行情

162
00:06:55,550 --> 00:06:57,060
又怕高位被套

163
00:06:57,060 --> 00:07:00,459
于是呢就用一点小钱拉满杠杆赌

164
00:07:00,459 --> 00:07:02,019
日内赢了去会所

165
00:07:02,019 --> 00:07:03,779
输了就当打车费了

166
00:07:03,779 --> 00:07:05,819
绝不留仓过夜被套

167
00:07:05,819 --> 00:07:09,660
这种散户驱动的伽马效应与做市商的机械对冲

168
00:07:09,660 --> 00:07:11,389
产生了剧烈的共振

169
00:07:11,389 --> 00:07:14,389
伽马效应一叠加就变成了你越追啊

170
00:07:14,389 --> 00:07:15,209
市场越涨

171
00:07:15,209 --> 00:07:15,990
市场越涨

172
00:07:15,990 --> 00:07:18,509
那你更想追的正反馈循环

173
00:07:18,509 --> 00:07:22,288
就其实也是一个典型的短期泡沫结构哈

174
00:07:22,288 --> 00:07:25,569
本周五的月度期权到期日

175
00:07:25,569 --> 00:07:28,160
是一个关键的时间节点

176
00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:30,480
目前做市商处于极端的干嘛

177
00:07:30,480 --> 00:07:31,259
仓位重

178
00:07:31,259 --> 00:07:34,620
就像紧绷的弹弓一样维持着低波动

179
00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:36,259
但是周五结算之后

180
00:07:36,259 --> 00:07:38,899
这一股结构性保护呢将会消失

181
00:07:38,899 --> 00:07:41,160
市场的波动率会瞬间回归哈

182
00:07:41,160 --> 00:07:44,449
指数可能会出现无征兆的剧烈摆动

183
00:07:44,449 --> 00:07:47,610
当下周初CCTA买盘枯竭

184
00:07:47,610 --> 00:07:49,920
企业回购停摆之后啊

185
00:07:49,920 --> 00:07:52,100
这个潮水就开始退去

186
00:07:52,100 --> 00:07:54,660
如果没有后续买家跟进的话

187
00:07:54,660 --> 00:07:59,038
市场可能从真空上涨转入高位派发

188
00:07:59,038 --> 00:08:00,798
这不是单边看空啊

189
00:08:00,798 --> 00:08:04,658
而是这个市场短线呢嗯偏向要先回调

190
00:08:04,658 --> 00:08:06,480
再去寻找支撑嗯

191
00:08:06,480 --> 00:08:08,980
当下如果继续追多呃

192
00:08:08,980 --> 00:08:10,720
或者说这个时候做空

193
00:08:10,720 --> 00:08:13,589
其实都相当于在火山口蹦迪

194
00:08:13,589 --> 00:08:15,410
其他个股与板块方面

195
00:08:15,410 --> 00:08:16,860
半导体活跃

196
00:08:16,860 --> 00:08:19,100
博通股价又虚涨了4%

197
00:08:19,100 --> 00:08:22,439
公司宣布与梅塔共同生产定制AI芯片

198
00:08:22,439 --> 00:08:23,160
这项协议

199
00:08:23,160 --> 00:08:26,240
将双方的合作期限延长到了2029年

200
00:08:26,240 --> 00:08:29,519
其中包括超过一级瓦的初始计算能力

201
00:08:29,519 --> 00:08:32,429
承诺阿斯麦股价今年季后下跌

202
00:08:32,429 --> 00:08:35,309
公司第一季度业绩全线超预期

203
00:08:35,309 --> 00:08:37,090
全年营收指引也善休

204
00:08:37,090 --> 00:08:40,919
并且宣布扩大极紫外光刻机产能

205
00:08:40,919 --> 00:08:43,509
以应对2027年的强劲需求

206
00:08:43,509 --> 00:08:47,470
但是呢嗯公司给出的Q2指引偏弱

207
00:08:47,470 --> 00:08:50,009
引发了市场的短期分歧

208
00:08:50,009 --> 00:08:53,090
Q2销售额中指大约87亿欧元

209
00:08:53,090 --> 00:08:55,330
低于市场预期的90.7亿欧元

210
00:08:55,330 --> 00:08:56,889
毛利率也环比下滑

211
00:08:56,889 --> 00:08:58,669
不过呢华尔接啊

212
00:08:58,669 --> 00:09:02,429
分析师们认为哈全球需求动能依然强劲

213
00:09:02,429 --> 00:09:05,519
那么Q2指引就是瑕不掩瑜

214
00:09:05,519 --> 00:09:07,558
依然维持看多观点

215
00:09:07,558 --> 00:09:09,659
股价日内也收窄了跌幅

216
00:09:09,659 --> 00:09:11,860
社交媒体公司SNP股价大涨

217
00:09:11,860 --> 00:09:15,820
公司宣布计划裁减最多16%的全球员工

218
00:09:15,820 --> 00:09:19,259
同时关闭至少300个未招聘职位

219
00:09:19,259 --> 00:09:22,399
以提升运营效率和盈利性增长

220
00:09:22,399 --> 00:09:26,620
并称裁员决定源于人工智能带来的效率提升

221
00:09:26,620 --> 00:09:31,059
公司计划将资源重新配置到最高优先级别唉

222
00:09:31,059 --> 00:09:35,440
就是把裁员这个黑锅甩到人工智能头上嗯

223
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:39,240
目前snap呢正面临来自激进投资者的压力

224
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:43,078
要求公司改善长期盈利能力不足的问题

225
00:09:43,078 --> 00:09:45,359
COVIVO最近是好消息不断呀

226
00:09:45,359 --> 00:09:47,678
股价逼近上方缺口压力

227
00:09:47,678 --> 00:09:48,999
今天看到消息说话

228
00:09:48,999 --> 00:09:54,389
节量化巨头兼STRATE投资10亿美元入股科VIP

229
00:09:54,389 --> 00:09:57,429
并且追加了60亿美元的技术采购订单

230
00:09:57,429 --> 00:10:01,159
目的是为了锁定英伟达下一代rub芯片

231
00:10:01,159 --> 00:10:03,220
算力以及AI软件服务

232
00:10:03,220 --> 00:10:05,840
这个是呃投资copy这家公司哈

233
00:10:05,840 --> 00:10:07,299
而不是单纯的炒股票

234
00:10:07,299 --> 00:10:08,938
所以是个好消息嗯

235
00:10:08,938 --> 00:10:11,019
我今天早上刚刚看到的时候

236
00:10:11,019 --> 00:10:14,830
还以为是真脆策盯上了KY这只股票吓了我一跳

237
00:10:14,830 --> 00:10:17,690
摩根三类股价呢季后大涨

238
00:10:17,690 --> 00:10:20,450
该行Q1营收同比增长16%

239
00:10:20,450 --> 00:10:22,490
净利润55.7亿美元

240
00:10:22,490 --> 00:10:23,950
同比增长29%

241
00:10:23,950 --> 00:10:25,480
算算创新高

242
00:10:25,480 --> 00:10:28,080
股票交易收入破记录嗯

243
00:10:28,080 --> 00:10:31,899
财富管理的吸金1184亿美元

244
00:10:31,899 --> 00:10:33,240
美银财报也不错

245
00:10:33,240 --> 00:10:35,320
Q1营收同比增长7%

246
00:10:35,320 --> 00:10:37,539
每股收益同比增长25%

247
00:10:37,539 --> 00:10:39,078
都超出市场预期

248
00:10:39,078 --> 00:10:41,879
全球市场波动提振了交易活动

249
00:10:41,879 --> 00:10:45,779
并购活动的反弹呢也推高了投资银行费用

250
00:10:45,779 --> 00:10:48,799
信贷损失准备金为是3亿美元

251
00:10:48,799 --> 00:10:53,000
较2021年第一季度的15亿美元有所减少

252
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:56,789
与2025年第四季度相比则基本持平

253
00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:58,129
呃这次财报季

254
00:10:58,129 --> 00:11:01,950
几家大银行都交出了让投资者满意的成绩单哈

255
00:11:01,950 --> 00:11:05,589
而且呢都披露他们在私募信贷领域的敞口

256
00:11:05,589 --> 00:11:10,029
试图平息人们对银行业在私募信贷产口担忧

257
00:11:10,029 --> 00:11:11,990
银行业的财报起了一个好头

258
00:11:11,990 --> 00:11:14,309
让投资者对接下来的科技股财报呢

259
00:11:14,309 --> 00:11:15,690
也充满了信心

260
00:11:15,690 --> 00:11:18,629
这其实也是支撑美股市场持续走高

261
00:11:18,629 --> 00:11:22,480
资金跑步进场抢筹的一个主要因素之一哈

262
00:11:22,480 --> 00:11:26,000
所以嗯美股这一波隔空行情

263
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,799
虽然有短线回调的风险

264
00:11:28,799 --> 00:11:32,120
但是中长期趋势呢已经重新走牛了

265
00:11:32,120 --> 00:11:34,679
行今天我们就简单的说到这里

266
00:11:34,679 --> 00:11:36,399
那我们明天见拜拜

共 1 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕