BV1xtL161EKT · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:00,720 大家好 2 00:00:00,720 --> 00:00:03,459 欢迎来到今天的深度解析 3 00:00:03,459 --> 00:00:06,059 咱们今天直接切入正题 4 00:00:06,059 --> 00:00:08,718 来聊一份分量极重的宝宝 5 00:00:08,718 --> 00:00:11,819 美国银行证券刚刚发布的关于存储 6 00:00:11,819 --> 00:00:14,750 芯片巨头凯侠的最新研报 7 00:00:14,750 --> 00:00:18,570 如果你一直关注科技圈的底层逻辑和财务动向 8 00:00:18,570 --> 00:00:22,719 那今天这份满是干货的数据解析绝对不容错过 9 00:00:22,719 --> 00:00:25,940 先给大家看个极其夸张的数字 10 00:00:25,940 --> 00:00:27,969 54排没错 11 00:00:27,969 --> 00:00:30,070 就在这份最新研报里 12 00:00:30,070 --> 00:00:34,270 美国银行直接把凯侠未来的盈利预期往上提了 13 00:00:34,270 --> 00:00:36,079 整整54派 14 00:00:36,079 --> 00:00:36,939 你得知道 15 00:00:36,939 --> 00:00:38,700 在成熟的半导体行业里 16 00:00:38,700 --> 00:00:40,530 这么大幅度的上调 17 00:00:40,530 --> 00:00:42,189 绝对是个大新闻 18 00:00:42,189 --> 00:00:44,609 今天咱们就要像剥洋葱一样 19 00:00:44,609 --> 00:00:48,570 一层层解开这个巨大涨幅背后的核心逻辑 20 00:00:48,570 --> 00:00:51,109 咱们今天的解析主要分五步走 21 00:00:51,109 --> 00:00:53,518 首先看看这次意外的评级上调 22 00:00:53,518 --> 00:00:56,579 接着聊聊AI是怎么引爆闪春热潮的 23 00:00:56,579 --> 00:00:59,560 然后拆解凯侠亮眼的第四季度数据 24 00:00:59,560 --> 00:01:01,359 再来个存储巨头大比拼 25 00:01:01,359 --> 00:01:04,390 最后客观评估一下未来的展望与风险 26 00:01:04,390 --> 00:01:06,829 好咱们这就开始第一部分 27 00:01:06,829 --> 00:01:10,420 令人意外的股票评级上调 28 00:01:10,420 --> 00:01:13,659 美国银行的大胆新预测 29 00:01:13,659 --> 00:01:16,540 咱们直接看研报原文是怎么说的 30 00:01:16,540 --> 00:01:17,900 他们明确提到 31 00:01:17,900 --> 00:01:21,890 将2027财年的每股收益预测上调54帕 32 00:01:21,890 --> 00:01:25,239 而且将目标价上调至6万1000日元 33 00:01:25,239 --> 00:01:26,879 这就非常有意思了 34 00:01:26,879 --> 00:01:30,239 要知道他们之前的目标价可是5万日元 35 00:01:30,239 --> 00:01:32,280 这超过20帕的跳涨 36 00:01:32,280 --> 00:01:35,469 不仅说明美国银行坚决维持了买入评级 37 00:01:35,469 --> 00:01:37,829 更说明分析师们显然看到了 38 00:01:37,829 --> 00:01:41,069 某些市场上还没完全消化的强劲动力 39 00:01:41,069 --> 00:01:44,290 你看这份报告摘要里的几个关键点 40 00:01:44,290 --> 00:01:46,859 1PS也就是每股收益 41 00:01:46,859 --> 00:01:50,728 说白了就是公司每股能赚多少真金白银 42 00:01:50,728 --> 00:01:55,368 而目标价就是分析师觉得这股票到底值多少钱 43 00:01:55,368 --> 00:01:58,840 这两个核心指标双双大幅度拉升 44 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:00,040 那么问题来了 45 00:02:00,040 --> 00:02:03,640 究竟是什么宏观力量在背后推波助澜的 46 00:02:03,640 --> 00:02:06,099 这就引出了咱们的第二部分 47 00:02:06,099 --> 00:02:08,780 AI引爆NN的闪存热潮 48 00:02:08,780 --> 00:02:11,810 为什么存储现在如此重要 49 00:02:11,810 --> 00:02:14,349 其实一提到生成式AI啊 50 00:02:14,349 --> 00:02:17,550 大家脑子里可能首先蹦出来的就是GPU 51 00:02:17,550 --> 00:02:18,810 算力这些词儿 52 00:02:18,810 --> 00:02:19,949 但你仔细想想 53 00:02:19,949 --> 00:02:22,689 AI光有大脑算得快还不行 54 00:02:22,689 --> 00:02:25,629 他还得有一个超级庞大的记忆系统 55 00:02:25,629 --> 00:02:28,289 来吞吐海量数据进行推理对吧 56 00:02:28,289 --> 00:02:32,090 这正是NAND闪存大显身手的地方 57 00:02:32,090 --> 00:02:34,409 美国银行的核心买入逻辑非常清晰 58 00:02:34,409 --> 00:02:35,009 就两点 59 00:02:35,009 --> 00:02:39,269 第一AI推理需求在疯狂拉动NND市场的增长 60 00:02:39,269 --> 00:02:42,530 第二呢整个行业的产能其实增加的非常有限 61 00:02:42,530 --> 00:02:45,590 这真的是个最朴素的经济学原理 62 00:02:45,590 --> 00:02:47,028 但威力无穷 63 00:02:47,028 --> 00:02:50,188 咱们一边看是AI厂商为了抢占风口 64 00:02:50,188 --> 00:02:52,800 那需求简直像无底洞一样爆发 65 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:53,740 另一边呢 66 00:02:53,740 --> 00:02:56,120 各家芯片厂的产能都紧巴巴的 67 00:02:56,120 --> 00:02:58,250 短期内根本挤不出多少现货 68 00:02:58,250 --> 00:03:01,590 当这种爆炸式的需求撞上持续紧张的供应 69 00:03:01,590 --> 00:03:03,669 结果大家闭着眼睛都能猜到 70 00:03:03,669 --> 00:03:06,870 存储芯片的价格肯定是要一路狂飙啊 71 00:03:06,870 --> 00:03:10,330 这份表格就非常直观地把这种紧缺 72 00:03:10,330 --> 00:03:12,579 转化成了财务数据 73 00:03:12,579 --> 00:03:13,558 大家看这里 74 00:03:13,558 --> 00:03:15,998 凯霞未来的销售额和营业利润 75 00:03:15,998 --> 00:03:18,449 完全是在走阶梯式的上涨 76 00:03:18,449 --> 00:03:19,550 分析师预计 77 00:03:19,550 --> 00:03:20,629 从现在起 78 00:03:20,629 --> 00:03:22,090 往后看几个财年 79 00:03:22,090 --> 00:03:24,439 它的利润数字会急剧膨胀 80 00:03:24,439 --> 00:03:26,400 毕竟数据不会撒谎 81 00:03:26,400 --> 00:03:28,379 这种宏观的供需失衡 82 00:03:28,379 --> 00:03:32,789 正结结实实地变成凯侠账面上的巨额收入 83 00:03:32,789 --> 00:03:34,830 咱们接着进入第三部分 84 00:03:34,830 --> 00:03:37,930 远超预期的第四季度表现飙升 85 00:03:37,930 --> 00:03:39,030 背后的数据 86 00:03:39,030 --> 00:03:41,129 刚才讲的都是理论 87 00:03:41,129 --> 00:03:41,729 与其 88 00:03:41,729 --> 00:03:44,810 那凯侠实际交出的答卷怎么样呢 89 00:03:44,810 --> 00:03:46,800 可以说是相当惊艳 90 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:48,740 研报里有一句话非常吸睛 91 00:03:48,740 --> 00:03:50,240 第一季度的销售指引 92 00:03:50,240 --> 00:03:52,280 意味着环比增长75% 93 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:53,780 大幅高于我们的预期 94 00:03:53,780 --> 00:03:57,479 大家注意是环比增长75%位 95 00:03:57,479 --> 00:03:58,759 仅仅过了一个季度 96 00:03:58,759 --> 00:04:01,419 销售额就完成这么恐怖的跳跃 97 00:04:01,419 --> 00:04:04,360 这已经不能用普通的商业周期来解释了 98 00:04:04,360 --> 00:04:06,280 它说明凯侠目前的爆发力 99 00:04:06,280 --> 00:04:09,139 远远甩开了市场之前的保守估算 100 00:04:09,139 --> 00:04:12,819 那么这个75帕的飞跃到底是怎么来的呢 101 00:04:12,819 --> 00:04:14,900 这就得聊聊a asp了 102 00:04:14,900 --> 00:04:16,810 也就是平均售价 103 00:04:16,810 --> 00:04:18,769 美国银行特别指出 104 00:04:18,769 --> 00:04:23,089 凯峡第一季度的a asp预计直接暴涨了30帕 105 00:04:23,089 --> 00:04:24,810 这就很好理解了对吧 106 00:04:24,810 --> 00:04:27,589 同样一条生产线下线的闪存芯片 107 00:04:27,589 --> 00:04:29,470 因为现在市场上太抢手 108 00:04:29,470 --> 00:04:31,939 能比上个季度多卖30帕的钱 109 00:04:31,939 --> 00:04:34,819 你想想在成本没啥大变化的前提下 110 00:04:34,819 --> 00:04:38,339 多卖出的这30趴溢价几乎全是纯利润 111 00:04:38,339 --> 00:04:40,168 妥妥的量价齐升啊 112 00:04:40,168 --> 00:04:41,689 大家看这张图表 113 00:04:41,689 --> 00:04:45,110 它更是实锤了咱们刚才说的逻辑 114 00:04:45,110 --> 00:04:49,649 强劲的AI数据中心需求就是高定价最硬的底气 115 00:04:49,649 --> 00:04:50,889 你看第四季度 116 00:04:50,889 --> 00:04:51,949 实际的营业利润 117 00:04:51,949 --> 00:04:54,689 直接干到了5991亿日元 118 00:04:54,689 --> 00:04:57,949 这个表现可以说是轻松打穿了美国银行 119 00:04:57,949 --> 00:04:59,394 之前的预测模型 120 00:04:59,399 --> 00:05:01,860 有了这么强悍的实际业绩打底 121 00:05:01,860 --> 00:05:04,560 分析师们大幅上调未来的盈利预测 122 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:06,240 也就完全顺理成章了 123 00:05:06,240 --> 00:05:07,879 好我们来到第四部分 124 00:05:07,879 --> 00:05:09,699 存储巨头大比拼 125 00:05:09,699 --> 00:05:11,379 凯霞所处的位置 126 00:05:11,379 --> 00:05:14,519 分析一家公司肯定不能只看他自己 127 00:05:14,519 --> 00:05:17,639 得把他拉到行业擂台上去比一比 128 00:05:17,639 --> 00:05:20,040 我把研报里那些复杂的财务指标 129 00:05:20,040 --> 00:05:21,939 提炼成的这张极简表格 130 00:05:21,939 --> 00:05:23,769 大家重点看这两个数字 131 00:05:23,769 --> 00:05:26,550 凯侠预计在2027财年的roe 132 00:05:26,550 --> 00:05:29,649 也就是净资产收益率飙到了惊人的 133 00:05:29,649 --> 00:05:31,019 61.4帕 134 00:05:31,019 --> 00:05:32,379 这个资金回报效率 135 00:05:32,379 --> 00:05:35,360 差不多是三星和美光这两大巨头的两倍了 136 00:05:35,360 --> 00:05:36,480 但有意思的是 137 00:05:36,480 --> 00:05:38,750 它的市盈率却只有5.8倍 138 00:05:38,750 --> 00:05:40,519 估值比同行都要低 139 00:05:40,519 --> 00:05:42,379 你想赚钱效率极高 140 00:05:42,379 --> 00:05:43,720 股票估值却偏低 141 00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:47,939 这在传统价值投资里绝对是个非常戏精的组合 142 00:05:47,939 --> 00:05:51,959 而这张全景估值表就更进一步印证了这一点 143 00:05:51,959 --> 00:05:54,500 基于咱们刚才看到的行业对比 144 00:05:54,500 --> 00:05:55,759 美国银行认为 145 00:05:55,759 --> 00:05:57,339 凯霞完全有理由 146 00:05:57,339 --> 00:06:00,180 获得跟行业平均水平看齐的估值 147 00:06:00,180 --> 00:06:03,158 也就是给出未来八倍的市盈率目标 148 00:06:03,158 --> 00:06:04,178 你算算账 149 00:06:04,178 --> 00:06:05,829 当盈利预期在暴增 150 00:06:05,829 --> 00:06:08,490 市盈率又要向行业标准的八倍靠拢 151 00:06:08,490 --> 00:06:11,029 这数学逻辑上的乘数效应一放大 152 00:06:11,029 --> 00:06:12,939 目标股价自然就上去了 153 00:06:12,939 --> 00:06:16,678 这就是6万1000日元目标价最核心的理论支撑 154 00:06:16,678 --> 00:06:19,218 最后咱们进入第五部分 155 00:06:19,218 --> 00:06:21,238 未来展望与风险 156 00:06:21,238 --> 00:06:23,970 放眼2027年及未来 157 00:06:23,970 --> 00:06:26,420 咱们先看看乐观的一面 158 00:06:26,420 --> 00:06:29,000 凯侠的管理层底气很足 159 00:06:29,000 --> 00:06:31,920 他们预计一直到2027年 160 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:35,560 市场都会保持这种供不应求的火热状态 161 00:06:35,560 --> 00:06:38,319 而且他们没打算只赚快钱 162 00:06:38,319 --> 00:06:42,658 正在积极地跟客户签长期合同来锁定这波红利 163 00:06:42,658 --> 00:06:44,759 另外随着利润大增 164 00:06:44,759 --> 00:06:46,158 现金流宽裕了 165 00:06:46,158 --> 00:06:50,189 管理层打算优先给股东实打实的派发股息 166 00:06:50,189 --> 00:06:52,250 而不是单纯的回购股票 167 00:06:52,250 --> 00:06:54,829 这对于看重稳健回报的人来说 168 00:06:54,829 --> 00:06:56,668 肯定是个积极信号 169 00:06:56,668 --> 00:07:00,069 但是呢做任何深度的财报解析 170 00:07:00,069 --> 00:07:02,250 咱们都得保持一份清醒 171 00:07:02,250 --> 00:07:04,850 尽管给了强烈的买入评级 172 00:07:04,850 --> 00:07:07,290 美国银行在这份报告的最后 173 00:07:07,290 --> 00:07:10,980 还是非常严谨地列出了潜在的下行风险 174 00:07:10,980 --> 00:07:13,839 这也是帮助咱们在狂热市场中 175 00:07:13,839 --> 00:07:15,639 保持客观视角的关键 176 00:07:15,639 --> 00:07:19,670 报告里提到了三个必须要警惕的风险点 177 00:07:19,670 --> 00:07:22,418 第一数据中心需求回落 178 00:07:22,418 --> 00:07:26,559 毕竟现在电力网络供应等物理瓶颈摆在那 179 00:07:26,559 --> 00:07:28,149 万一电网撑不住 180 00:07:28,149 --> 00:07:31,670 AI数据中心的建设速度被迫放缓呢 181 00:07:31,670 --> 00:07:34,480 第二大家一看利润这么高 182 00:07:34,480 --> 00:07:36,560 资本支出竞争就会加剧 183 00:07:36,560 --> 00:07:40,360 如果竞争对手不计成本的拼命砸钱扩产 184 00:07:40,360 --> 00:07:43,420 那现在的供需平衡马上就会被打破 185 00:07:43,420 --> 00:07:46,220 第三零部件成本上升 186 00:07:46,220 --> 00:07:47,699 如果像d ram这种 187 00:07:47,699 --> 00:07:50,279 其他关键组件的价格也跟着暴涨 188 00:07:50,279 --> 00:07:52,629 就会间接挤压客户的预算 189 00:07:52,629 --> 00:07:56,110 那凯侠现在这超高的利润率就可能被吞噬掉 190 00:07:56,110 --> 00:07:59,850 那么在完整拆解了美国银行的这份报告后 191 00:07:59,850 --> 00:08:02,189 我想留一个非常有意思的问题 192 00:08:02,189 --> 00:08:03,339 大家探讨一下 193 00:08:03,339 --> 00:08:06,259 如果真像专业分析师预测的那样 194 00:08:06,259 --> 00:08:07,779 直到2027年 195 00:08:07,779 --> 00:08:09,100 庞大的AI需求 196 00:08:09,100 --> 00:08:12,079 都会持续碾压咱们现有的闪存供应 197 00:08:12,079 --> 00:08:14,689 那么在这场浩浩荡荡的AI革命里 198 00:08:14,689 --> 00:08:18,449 真正的瓶颈到底是咱们天天讨论的算力芯片 199 00:08:18,449 --> 00:08:20,689 还是这些平时看起来不起眼 200 00:08:20,689 --> 00:08:23,629 却又极其关键的数据存储器呢 201 00:08:23,629 --> 00:08:25,370 希望今天的深度解析 202 00:08:25,370 --> 00:08:27,949 能帮你理清这背后的硬核逻辑 203 00:08:27,949 --> 00:08:29,410 感谢大家的陪伴 204 00:08:29,410 --> 00:08:31,480 咱们下期再见
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