BV1xrZZBXEe1 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:01,340 --> 00:00:02,220 这个政府 2 00:00:03,660 --> 00:00:05,679 最高法院刚刚推翻了 3 00:00:05,679 --> 00:00:06,360 呃 4 00:00:06,360 --> 00:00:07,719 特朗普的关税政策 5 00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:08,679 这个 6 00:00:08,679 --> 00:00:11,480 裁决以六比三通过 7 00:00:11,480 --> 00:00:13,259 所以呃 8 00:00:13,259 --> 00:00:15,230 实际上差距还很大 9 00:00:15,230 --> 00:00:20,589 我们从中得出几点结论，首先是 10 00:00:20,589 --> 00:00:22,920 最高法院的判决表明 11 00:00:23,480 --> 00:00:26,000 特朗普总统必须通过国会 12 00:00:26,000 --> 00:00:31,469 才能实施关税或其他增税措施 13 00:00:31,469 --> 00:00:32,149 正如你们所知 14 00:00:32,149 --> 00:00:33,939 我们一直反对关税 15 00:00:33,939 --> 00:00:35,119 增税政策 16 00:00:35,119 --> 00:00:36,719 我不喜欢增税 17 00:00:36,719 --> 00:00:39,049 大多数人也不喜欢增税 18 00:00:39,049 --> 00:00:43,049 因此你会发现今日股市上涨 19 00:00:43,049 --> 00:00:45,570 而债市并未大幅抛售 20 00:00:45,570 --> 00:00:48,679 这正在影响市场 21 00:00:48,679 --> 00:00:49,799 我认为确实存在 22 00:00:49,799 --> 00:00:50,630 嗯 23 00:00:50,630 --> 00:00:56,009 许多人此前就预测最高法院会如此判决 24 00:00:56,009 --> 00:01:01,270 当然特朗普总统已经表态 25 00:01:01,270 --> 00:01:01,869 好吧 26 00:01:01,869 --> 00:01:02,409 行吧 27 00:01:02,409 --> 00:01:04,310 全面征收百分之十关税 28 00:01:04,310 --> 00:01:06,870 当时和之前 29 00:01:06,870 --> 00:01:10,069 这可能还需回到最高法院 30 00:01:10,069 --> 00:01:10,730 嗯 31 00:01:10,730 --> 00:01:14,709 我认为特朗普不愿在谈判中失利 32 00:01:14,709 --> 00:01:17,030 失去与其他国家的筹码 33 00:01:17,030 --> 00:01:19,450 但还有其他因素 34 00:01:19,450 --> 00:01:23,530 如果你注意到他近期的行动 35 00:01:23,530 --> 00:01:26,510 针对 affordability 危机 36 00:01:26,510 --> 00:01:35,140 他已对牛肉、咖啡和家具等类别取消关税 37 00:01:35,659 --> 00:01:37,180 你也知道 38 00:01:37,180 --> 00:01:38,079 必需品 39 00:01:38,079 --> 00:01:39,700 这非常有趣 40 00:01:39,700 --> 00:01:44,310 他还希望看到通胀指标 41 00:01:44,310 --> 00:01:46,150 通胀率下降 42 00:01:46,629 --> 00:01:53,700 因此我们认为这百分之十关税的说法只是暂时 43 00:01:53,700 --> 00:01:58,129 他不想在与其他国家谈判中失去筹码 44 00:01:58,129 --> 00:01:59,609 如果仔细想想 45 00:01:59,609 --> 00:02:03,170 他已达成多项重大协议 46 00:02:03,170 --> 00:02:09,250 涉及美国外国直接投资以恢复 47 00:02:09,250 --> 00:02:11,939 恢复制造业基础 48 00:02:11,939 --> 00:02:18,090 当然这主要围绕科技领域和新税法 49 00:02:18,650 --> 00:02:22,169 大幅加速折旧 50 00:02:22,169 --> 00:02:27,229 因此我们认为美国投资回报率将提升 51 00:02:27,229 --> 00:02:29,849 由于放松管制和税收削减 52 00:02:29,849 --> 00:02:33,569 我们将迎来大量外国直接投资 53 00:02:33,569 --> 00:02:37,669 贸易逆差的一个特征化描述 54 00:02:37,669 --> 00:02:40,919 特朗普总统的政策是灾难性的 55 00:02:42,120 --> 00:02:50,060 你知道世界其他国家正在从美国抢走生意 56 00:02:50,060 --> 00:02:52,729 由于不公平的贸易做法 57 00:02:52,729 --> 00:02:57,689 他一直在利用关税谈判杠杆 58 00:02:57,689 --> 00:03:00,669 以创造更公平的竞争环境 59 00:03:00,669 --> 00:03:04,519 我不知道他失去了多少谈判筹码 60 00:03:04,519 --> 00:03:08,218 但若看过去一年的贸易逆差 61 00:03:08,218 --> 00:03:11,819 关税并未改善这一状况 62 00:03:11,819 --> 00:03:15,080 事实上从商品角度来看 63 00:03:15,080 --> 00:03:16,800 情况变得更糟 64 00:03:17,280 --> 00:03:18,719 正如你们所知 65 00:03:18,719 --> 00:03:26,060 我们在贸易逆差问题上的立场与特朗普总统不同 66 00:03:27,379 --> 00:03:34,919 因为贸易逆差的另一面是资本盈余 67 00:03:34,919 --> 00:03:37,219 我们认为这一盈余将增加 68 00:03:37,219 --> 00:03:39,520 得益于外国直接投资 69 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,639 得益于新的税收规则 70 00:03:41,639 --> 00:03:42,419 现在 71 00:03:42,419 --> 00:03:44,419 市场中的算法 72 00:03:44,419 --> 00:03:46,539 当有突发新闻时 73 00:03:46,539 --> 00:03:53,090 正是算法和高频交易者利用突发新闻 74 00:03:54,210 --> 00:03:56,810 我认为最初的反应是 75 00:03:56,810 --> 00:03:57,530 你知道的 76 00:03:57,530 --> 00:03:59,169 让市场下跌 77 00:03:59,169 --> 00:04:02,069 从之前的大幅上涨 78 00:04:02,069 --> 00:04:04,569 转为更低水平 79 00:04:04,569 --> 00:04:06,009 并非当日最低 80 00:04:06,009 --> 00:04:07,789 但部分收益被回吐 81 00:04:07,789 --> 00:04:08,110 现在 82 00:04:08,110 --> 00:04:08,669 市场 83 00:04:08,669 --> 00:04:10,620 股市正在回升 84 00:04:10,620 --> 00:04:12,900 债市出现抛售 85 00:04:14,020 --> 00:04:15,860 但债市也在反弹 86 00:04:15,860 --> 00:04:24,319 而收益率曲线有趣的是略有平坦 87 00:04:24,319 --> 00:04:26,800 利率未如预期反应 88 00:04:26,800 --> 00:04:29,939 即大幅上升 89 00:04:29,939 --> 00:04:31,589 所以我认为市场对此反应平淡 90 00:04:31,589 --> 00:04:35,970 市场似乎对此持谨慎态度 91 00:04:35,970 --> 00:04:44,110 我可以说，更注重创新增长的投资组合 92 00:04:44,110 --> 00:04:46,939 尤其是激进增长型组合 93 00:04:46,939 --> 00:04:50,620 近期有所回调 94 00:04:50,620 --> 00:04:53,310 其中一个原因是国防科技 95 00:04:53,310 --> 00:04:59,279 我认为许多人认为 96 00:04:59,279 --> 00:05:03,259 国防行业将受冲击 97 00:05:03,259 --> 00:05:06,439 因为我们国防开支将减少 98 00:05:06,439 --> 00:05:09,420 因关税收入转向国防 99 00:05:09,420 --> 00:05:11,370 我认为这 100 00:05:11,370 --> 00:05:13,129 我不认为会发生 101 00:05:13,129 --> 00:05:16,009 我认为国防开支将继续保持这一增速 102 00:05:16,009 --> 00:05:18,158 甚至可能加速 103 00:05:18,158 --> 00:05:21,240 这就是我们所知道的 104 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:22,939 算法正在接管 105 00:05:22,939 --> 00:05:28,709 当像国防科技对这条新闻做出反应时 106 00:05:28,709 --> 00:05:30,389 嗯，还有件事 107 00:05:30,389 --> 00:05:31,290 我只需指出 108 00:05:31,290 --> 00:05:33,170 由于今日公布的数字 109 00:05:33,170 --> 00:05:38,959 实际GDP增长一度出人意料地低 110 00:05:38,959 --> 00:05:42,620 我认为亚特兰大联储估计 111 00:05:42,620 --> 00:05:45,839 第四季度实际GDP增长将达到五点 112 00:05:45,839 --> 00:05:46,939 三 percent 113 00:05:46,939 --> 00:05:49,259 今日公布时一度显示 114 00:05:49,259 --> 00:05:50,100 四 percent 115 00:05:50,100 --> 00:05:52,250 而实际情况是 116 00:05:52,250 --> 00:05:53,129 贸易方面 117 00:05:53,129 --> 00:05:56,050 贸易数据被下调 118 00:05:56,050 --> 00:05:57,170 换句话说 119 00:05:57,170 --> 00:05:59,209 转向更大的逆差 120 00:05:59,209 --> 00:06:01,250 由此可见即使最近 121 00:06:02,529 --> 00:06:05,449 关税并未改善我们的贸易逆差 122 00:06:05,449 --> 00:06:08,449 还有政府停摆事件 123 00:06:08,449 --> 00:06:12,829 我们认为该数据存在大量扭曲 124 00:06:12,829 --> 00:06:16,790 如果关税降低的话 125 00:06:16,790 --> 00:06:20,290 如果提高税收会抑制增长 126 00:06:20,290 --> 00:06:24,069 我们认为相反的情况应该成立 127 00:06:24,069 --> 00:06:25,848 现在这些关税已被取消 128 00:06:26,848 --> 00:06:29,639 这实际上会加速经济增长 129 00:06:29,639 --> 00:06:33,629 减税能促进更多增长 130 00:06:33,629 --> 00:06:40,408 同时也会减轻通胀压力 131 00:06:40,408 --> 00:06:42,749 真实的通胀数据 132 00:06:42,749 --> 00:06:45,108 正如我们长期强调的 133 00:06:45,108 --> 00:06:47,468 现在已低于1% 134 00:06:47,468 --> 00:06:49,428 在疫情高峰时曾达到12% 135 00:06:49,428 --> 00:06:51,569 在疫情最严重时期 136 00:06:51,569 --> 00:06:55,848 这是一万种消费者价格监测 137 00:06:55,848 --> 00:06:57,509 二十四小时持续监控 138 00:06:57,509 --> 00:07:03,850 这些压力已经开始缓解 139 00:07:03,850 --> 00:07:07,149 在此次关税宣布前的通胀率 140 00:07:07,149 --> 00:07:09,170 因此它们可能使我们 141 00:07:09,170 --> 00:07:15,019 关税下调实际上可能使我们接近零或负值 142 00:07:15,019 --> 00:07:17,199 在未来3-6个月内 143 00:07:17,199 --> 00:07:19,500 我们将拭目以待 144 00:07:19,500 --> 00:07:20,300 嗯 145 00:07:20,300 --> 00:07:23,939 我们并不担心发生的事情 146 00:07:23,939 --> 00:07:25,269 正如我所描述的 147 00:07:25,269 --> 00:07:26,769 这反而是个积极信号 148 00:07:26,769 --> 00:07:28,470 我认为我们一直保持一致 149 00:07:28,470 --> 00:07:31,089 说关税就是税收 150 00:07:31,089 --> 00:07:33,170 税收对增长有负面影响 151 00:07:34,449 --> 00:07:35,470 我们脱掉它们 152 00:07:35,470 --> 00:07:43,430 我觉得今年我们可能会比以往有更多增长 153 00:07:43,629 --> 00:07:44,730 好了 154 00:07:44,730 --> 00:07:47,790 祝大家周末愉快 155 00:07:47,790 --> 00:07:48,850 呃 156 00:07:48,850 --> 00:07:50,600 期待下次再见
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