【The Motley Fool】苹果未来的三张王牌：医疗、服务与“不作恶”的 AI

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大卫

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非常感谢你们今天能和我们共度时光

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甚至展望更远的未来

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获取你对公司见解

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了解它的发展历程以及你认为未来的方向

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我的第一个问题

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我知道我在你的网站上看过

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davidpogue dot com

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有兴趣的可以去查看

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但真正让我印象深刻的是

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你著作的广度

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你涵盖的主题

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从苹果到歌剧甚至数码摄影

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这让我想起我的父亲

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你看起来像个文艺复兴式全才

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涉猎众多领域

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是什么激励你写下《苹果五十年》

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这

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确实是自然的话题

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四十到五十年

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我曾在《Macworld》杂志撰稿

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在那里担任专栏作家十三年

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后来成为《纽约时报》科技专栏作家

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做了十三年

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持续报道苹果

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现在我在CBS

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周日晨间节目继续报道苹果与科技

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这一切都是妻子的主意

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其实她

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总是这样

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她曾半夜把我叫醒

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真的把我叫醒

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大卫

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大卫

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醒醒

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我有个绝妙的书名主意

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就像她平时那样

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《苹果五十年》

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我立刻打断她

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兄弟

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时机已经错过

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但第二天早上我查证后发现

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正好差两年

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正是研究写作的好时机

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但你知道深夜的灵感

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半梦半醒时

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总不确定是否靠谱

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是否是个好主意

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所以我给我的编辑打电话

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西蒙·舒斯特，然后向她提出了这个想法

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她立刻回应道

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哦是啊

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好好做这个吧

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我生活中最好的事情大多因为妻子发生

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所以我完全能理解

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嗯好的

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这个问题有点宽泛

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但一旦正确执行

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你已经写了这本书

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有什么事情让你特别印象深刻

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你觉得人们真的需要了解公司或领导力方面的内容

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你从中得到的最关键一点是什么

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人们真的需要知道这一点

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我想应该是

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你知道的

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苹果的营销策略

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你知道非常顶尖

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你知道他们的整个故事是

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我们制造最精致的

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我们可能打造最美丽的

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你知道我们

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我们真的全力以赴

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而我始终觉得

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每个人

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每家公司都说自己追求卓越

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但说实话

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当你揭开帷幕后

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苹果确实

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我说他们

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那些超出常规的故事

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他们确实

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他们就像

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我最喜欢的案例是

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嗯在这里

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我给你两个快速例子

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在开发苹果手表时

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他们后背有这些传感器

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能测量非常有限的数据

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比如你的血流

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和手臂的运动

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但如何将这些转化为睡眠阶段

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这涉及大脑活动

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或心率

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包括房颤和疾病

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以及心房颤动

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然后是高血压

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也就是血压问题

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所以要弄清楚如何关联这些数据与

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V O 你的血氧饱和度

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他们成为了世界上最大的氧气消耗者

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O₂背包

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因此他们购买了所有这些血氧测量设备

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带有面罩的背包

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并搭建了虚假公寓

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让人们在这些假公寓中生活

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用餐

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在这些虚假公寓中娱乐

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佩戴设备测量实际血氧饱和度

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以便训练AI

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如何与数据相关联，就像超越常规

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另一个真正精彩的故事是关于面部识别

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你知道的

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用面部解锁手机

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他们确保系统能在全球任何面孔上运行

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在苹果的咖啡厅设立化妆星期一

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摆放原型机

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让人们尝试解锁设备

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佩戴特殊妆容

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佩戴假发

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佩戴奇特眼镜

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他们带着设备去哈雷摩托车聚会

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因为那里会有大量创意发型

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他们确实做到了

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他们带去双胞胎会议测试

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聘请好莱坞特效公司制作高度逼真

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带有真实眼睛和胡茬的面具

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确保系统无法被面具欺骗

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有一个关于邮件室员工的故事

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打开这个箱子

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里面是这些无头头像

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但其实

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他们不惜一切代价

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嗯

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我认为这体现在他们所有产品中

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所以这听起来像一家认真做功课的公司

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书中提到，当史蒂夫·乔布斯加入公司时

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他将苹果产品线从十五款缩减至四款

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正是那个四象限策略

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我认为

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或者从效率角度考虑

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你认为这种简化方法

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在转型期间如何影响公司财务

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这是一项重大举措

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这是一项重大举措

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这是一次大胆押注

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确实，我意思是

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他我意思是

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他关闭的远不止这些

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他

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是啊

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他们有五十台Mac电脑

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他们有打印机

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他们有牛顿平板电脑

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你知道那个手持电脑

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还记得他们有一个先进技术小组

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他全部关闭了

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他们有低端产品

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一系列电脑

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叫表演者系列

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质量非常差

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于是他和硬件工程师

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约翰·鲁宾斯坦

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直接说我们要全部关闭

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我们要从七十款产品缩减到四款

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你知道的

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回答你的问题

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乔布斯的论点是

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顺便说一句

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企业史上最大的复兴案例

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由一个从未读过商学院的人

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只读过一个学期大学

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他是怎么知道的

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他是怎么知道的

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我真不明白

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你知道的

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但这些裁员并不受欢迎

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你知道的

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乔布斯的回归并未被所有人接受

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他一生只管理过两家公司

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第一次是苹果公司，之后是另一家

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那家公司在之后成立

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两家都失败了

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那他们凭什么相信

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他会带领公司走出低谷

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而90年代的苹果内部派系林立

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严重重复建设

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他们同时运行两个广告活动

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由乔布斯负责

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他全部关闭了

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我们要统一广告

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那就是致敬疯狂创意者

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就是这样

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我最喜欢的段子

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是

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曾有两名苹果律师在商标法庭对簿公堂

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公司内部混乱至极

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总之

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呃

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所以乔布斯的论点是专注于四个产品

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两款笔记本电脑

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两款台式机

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我们可以调集最顶尖的工程师

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全面负责这四个产品的开发

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我的意思是

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从财务角度来看

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有一个无名英雄

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就是首席财务官

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这个人弗雷德·安德森

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性格非常内向

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不喜欢聚光灯

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也不喜欢被追捧

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但苹果公司在他入职时已濒临破产

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形势岌岌可危

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当时的周营收额高达五千万美元

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他们欠日元银行四亿美元贷款

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抱歉是日本银行

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安德森做了许多精妙的即时决策

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比如苹果向供应商付款

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零部件供应商在净30天内结清

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他们会在30天内支付零部件供应商

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而行业标准是60天

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苹果显得比必要时更慷慨

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所以他说道

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好吧

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我们要改变这个

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现在停止支付股息

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我们要飞往日本与银行家谈判

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阐述复苏计划并争取延长贷款

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一系列明智的常识性措施

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这些举措为乔布斯

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争取了喘息空间

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缓解了财务压力

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然后对乔布斯而言

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大幅削减公司开支

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通过取消这些过度扩展的产品线

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聚焦于四个核心产品

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他们首先推出的

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该系列新品是iMac

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再次我不

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我真的不明白乔布斯

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00:09:02,279 --> 00:09:02,860
他是怎么做到的

242
00:09:02,860 --> 00:09:06,799
iMac设计如此前卫

243
00:09:06,799 --> 00:09:08,700
完全没有直角边

244
00:09:08,700 --> 00:09:11,870
采用透明蓝色塑料

245
00:09:11,870 --> 00:09:12,990
没有软盘驱动器

246
00:09:12,990 --> 00:09:13,509
驱动器

247
00:09:13,509 --> 00:09:15,289
史上首款个人电脑

248
00:09:15,289 --> 00:09:16,070
没有软盘

249
00:09:16,070 --> 00:09:17,830
比如你在做什么

250
00:09:17,830 --> 00:09:18,210
为什么

251
00:09:18,210 --> 00:09:20,190
如果你的公司处境艰难

252
00:09:20,190 --> 00:09:24,950
为什么你要孤注一掷在如此怪异激进的事物上

253
00:09:25,070 --> 00:09:28,669
却成为了有史以来最畅销的电脑

254
00:09:28,669 --> 00:09:29,149
你知道的

255
00:09:29,149 --> 00:09:29,570
所以是啊

256
00:09:29,570 --> 00:09:31,190
乔布斯很爱他

257
00:09:31,190 --> 00:09:32,210
爱他或恨他都行

258
00:09:32,210 --> 00:09:34,870
他能以异乎寻常的方式预见未来

259
00:09:34,870 --> 00:09:36,389
非常非常正确

260
00:09:36,389 --> 00:09:38,720
我认为这正是

261
00:09:38,720 --> 00:09:39,240
你知道的

262
00:09:39,240 --> 00:09:39,399
我们

263
00:09:39,399 --> 00:09:41,919
我们至今在投资团队里还经常讨论

264
00:09:41,919 --> 00:09:44,700
当你看到真正具有远见的ceo

265
00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:45,799
他们能预见到拐角处的机会

266
00:09:45,799 --> 00:09:47,049
无人能及

267
00:09:47,370 --> 00:09:47,929
你只是

268
00:09:47,929 --> 00:09:49,210
你无法与之对抗

269
00:09:49,210 --> 00:09:52,279
通常押注他们是个明智选择

270
00:09:52,279 --> 00:09:53,600
我觉得这很有趣

271
00:09:53,600 --> 00:09:54,480
你在谈论一本书

272
00:09:54,480 --> 00:09:59,980
你知道乔布斯曾作为无薪临时ceo任职两年多

273
00:09:59,980 --> 00:10:01,860
我以为这是从i ceo开始的

274
00:10:01,860 --> 00:10:05,779
这似乎是i系列事物的开端

275
00:10:05,919 --> 00:10:06,799
但在你看来

276
00:10:06,799 --> 00:10:08,559
担任临时ceo两年多

277
00:10:08,559 --> 00:10:09,450
无薪的情况

278
00:10:09,450 --> 00:10:11,529
许多人可能会认为

279
00:10:11,529 --> 00:10:13,690
这是一位处于弱势的ceo

280
00:10:13,690 --> 00:10:14,210
但我想

281
00:10:14,210 --> 00:10:17,559
缺乏正式合同

282
00:10:17,559 --> 00:10:21,799
是否给了他实际对董事会的影响力

283
00:10:21,799 --> 00:10:25,240
这似乎反而增强了他的权力

284
00:10:25,759 --> 00:10:32,769
我认为董事会确实希望他担任ceo

285
00:10:32,769 --> 00:10:35,019
他们真正希望他承担领导角色

286
00:10:35,019 --> 00:10:36,100
他在最初的几个月

287
00:10:36,100 --> 00:10:37,080
在最初的几个月

288
00:10:37,080 --> 00:10:39,360
他完全不参与

289
00:10:39,360 --> 00:10:40,559
比如苹果

290
00:10:40,559 --> 00:10:41,940
有一位ceo

291
00:10:41,940 --> 00:10:42,259
吉尔

292
00:10:42,259 --> 00:10:44,250
阿梅里奥和乔布斯

293
00:10:44,250 --> 00:10:45,450
认为他是笨蛋

294
00:10:45,450 --> 00:10:47,809
他知道公司濒临崩溃

295
00:10:47,809 --> 00:10:53,350
他花了很长时间才决定提供建议

296
00:10:53,350 --> 00:10:55,690
然后成为i ceo

297
00:10:55,690 --> 00:10:56,990
最终成为ceo

298
00:10:56,990 --> 00:11:01,679
他想确保公司在他投入之前能够被挽救

299
00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:06,000
因此他无意让董事会卷入其中

300
00:11:06,830 --> 00:11:09,769
他无意对董事会玩欲擒故纵

301
00:11:09,769 --> 00:11:10,289
嗯

302
00:11:10,289 --> 00:11:11,970
结果却产生了这种效果

303
00:11:11,970 --> 00:11:16,110
我认为是因为董事会不断向他提供更大额度的股票期权

304
00:11:16,110 --> 00:11:19,159
以及越来越奢华的薪酬方案

305
00:11:19,159 --> 00:11:21,970
如果你认为这份工作

306
00:11:21,970 --> 00:11:24,710
但即使这不是他的本意

307
00:11:24,710 --> 00:11:25,570
呃

308
00:11:25,570 --> 00:11:25,990
是的

309
00:11:25,990 --> 00:11:29,029
他的真正目标并非参与其中

310
00:11:29,029 --> 00:11:34,129
直到他看清真相并确认公司可救

311
00:11:34,409 --> 00:11:38,850
你认为关于史蒂夫·乔布斯最大的误解是什么

312
00:11:40,070 --> 00:11:40,730
嗯

313
00:11:40,730 --> 00:11:42,409
我有一个好的答案

314
00:11:42,409 --> 00:11:43,129
嗯

315
00:11:43,129 --> 00:11:43,429
等待中

316
00:11:45,710 --> 00:11:47,958
所以我采访了这个人

317
00:11:47,958 --> 00:11:48,958
安迪·赫茨菲尔德

318
00:11:48,958 --> 00:11:51,879
他是最初的麦金塔工程师之一

319
00:11:51,879 --> 00:11:56,509
他说乔布斯会突然泪流满面

320
00:11:56,509 --> 00:11:59,289
或者突然爆发出狂笑

321
00:11:59,289 --> 00:12:01,429
他能把你撕成碎片

322
00:12:01,429 --> 00:12:03,370
或把你捧上神坛

323
00:12:03,370 --> 00:12:07,330
他就是如此多面

324
00:12:07,330 --> 00:12:12,809
而赫茨菲尔德说任何形容词

325
00:12:12,809 --> 00:12:15,009
在不同时间都能用在他身上

326
00:12:16,169 --> 00:12:20,190
因此误解在于那些以为了解他的人

327
00:12:20,190 --> 00:12:21,460
你知道那些说

328
00:12:21,460 --> 00:12:21,779
哦

329
00:12:21,779 --> 00:12:22,059
是的

330
00:12:22,059 --> 00:12:23,679
乔布斯是个混蛋

331
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:24,559
是的

332
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:25,860
他有时确实如此

333
00:12:25,860 --> 00:12:26,559
而且

334
00:12:26,559 --> 00:12:26,860
哦

335
00:12:26,860 --> 00:12:27,159
是的

336
00:12:27,159 --> 00:12:29,450
乔布斯是神级天才

337
00:12:29,450 --> 00:12:30,389
是的

338
00:12:30,389 --> 00:12:31,690
他有时确实如此

339
00:12:31,690 --> 00:12:36,159
但整体而言他兼具所有特质

340
00:12:36,159 --> 00:12:38,000
他能瞬间切换状态

341
00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:39,629
快如闪电

342
00:12:39,629 --> 00:12:40,649
所以是的

343
00:12:40,649 --> 00:12:41,710
别以为你了解

344
00:12:41,710 --> 00:12:42,549
史蒂夫·乔布斯

345
00:12:42,549 --> 00:12:43,549
就像

346
00:12:43,549 --> 00:12:44,070
你知道的

347
00:12:44,070 --> 00:12:46,289
盲人摸象的寓言

348
00:12:46,289 --> 00:12:48,649
你知道这些盲人走近大象时

349
00:12:48,649 --> 00:12:49,529
其中一人说道

350
00:12:49,529 --> 00:12:50,710
我知道大象是什么

351
00:12:50,710 --> 00:12:51,210
它就是

352
00:12:51,210 --> 00:12:52,370
它就是粗壮的东西

353
00:12:52,370 --> 00:12:53,350
像树干一样

354
00:12:53,350 --> 00:12:54,549
因为他摸到了腿

355
00:12:54,549 --> 00:12:55,129
你们这些人

356
00:12:55,129 --> 00:12:55,690
不不

357
00:12:55,690 --> 00:12:56,610
像扫帚一样

358
00:12:56,610 --> 00:12:57,529
因为他抓着尾巴

359
00:12:57,529 --> 00:13:01,129
你知道这和工作有什么关系

360
00:13:01,129 --> 00:13:01,950
太神奇了

361
00:13:01,950 --> 00:13:02,250
是啊

362
00:13:02,250 --> 00:13:03,149
比如啊

363
00:13:03,149 --> 00:13:05,230
就像发现优质企业

364
00:13:05,230 --> 00:13:06,389
能做很多事情

365
00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:07,750
能满足各人所需

366
00:13:07,750 --> 00:13:09,370
听起来他好像

367
00:13:09,370 --> 00:13:10,389
这太棒了

368
00:13:10,389 --> 00:13:11,129
我超爱

369
00:13:11,129 --> 00:13:11,629
呃

370
00:13:11,629 --> 00:13:13,509
我们在这里切换镜头

371
00:13:13,509 --> 00:13:14,159
我们现在

372
00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:14,639
你知道的

373
00:13:14,639 --> 00:13:17,700
我们从史蒂夫·乔布斯过渡到蒂姆·库克时代

374
00:13:17,700 --> 00:13:21,019
你在书中提到乔布斯告诉蒂姆·库克

375
00:13:21,019 --> 00:13:24,940
我引用原文：‘首席执行官层面从未有过专业交接’

376
00:13:26,019 --> 00:13:27,700
前任总是被解雇

377
00:13:27,700 --> 00:13:29,679
然后新人接手

378
00:13:29,679 --> 00:13:34,220
我希望实现专业CEO交接——原话

379
00:13:34,220 --> 00:13:39,419
这种 succession 计划如何影响公司未来稳定性

380
00:13:39,419 --> 00:13:41,559
我记得蒂姆·库克上任后

381
00:13:41,559 --> 00:13:43,259
我们所有人都说

382
00:13:43,259 --> 00:13:43,820
天啊

383
00:13:43,820 --> 00:13:44,840
这能成功吗

384
00:13:44,840 --> 00:13:47,490
这可是重大转型

385
00:13:47,490 --> 00:13:52,788
但执行得非常完美

386
00:13:52,788 --> 00:13:54,568
这太震撼了

387
00:13:54,568 --> 00:13:57,469
没错，所有批评者

388
00:13:57,469 --> 00:13:58,229
包括我

389
00:13:58,229 --> 00:14:02,990
所有头条都在说

390
00:14:02,990 --> 00:14:04,629
蒂姆·库克不是合适人选

391
00:14:04,629 --> 00:14:06,250
他不是产品专家

392
00:14:06,250 --> 00:14:09,730
他不是表演者

393
00:14:09,730 --> 00:14:10,549
不像乔布斯

394
00:14:10,549 --> 00:14:11,789
明显缺乏激情

395
00:14:11,789 --> 00:14:12,110
总之

396
00:14:12,110 --> 00:14:13,129
没错，乔布斯

397
00:14:13,129 --> 00:14:13,509
我的意思是

398
00:14:13,509 --> 00:14:15,690
他完全不同

399
00:14:15,690 --> 00:14:19,870
乔布斯性格火爆且嗓门大，总能掌控全场

400
00:14:19,870 --> 00:14:23,600
蒂姆·库克沉稳内敛

401
00:14:23,600 --> 00:14:24,840
冷静如钢铁

402
00:14:24,840 --> 00:14:26,639
但非常低调

403
00:14:26,639 --> 00:14:28,200
这个人从不提高嗓门

404
00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:30,710
他只是摇头从不伤害他人

405
00:14:30,710 --> 00:14:31,190
是啊

406
00:14:31,190 --> 00:14:31,809
我知道

407
00:14:31,809 --> 00:14:33,330
他是个物流专家

408
00:14:33,330 --> 00:14:35,789
他是世上最伟大的物流专家

409
00:14:35,789 --> 00:14:36,470
你知道的

410
00:14:36,470 --> 00:14:39,379
供应链、定价和电子表格

411
00:14:39,379 --> 00:14:43,639
但他绝对想不到iPod这类产品

412
00:14:43,639 --> 00:14:48,019
我记得洋葱报曾有犀利标题

413
00:14:48,019 --> 00:14:49,490
比如库佩尔蒂诺

414
00:14:49,490 --> 00:14:51,610
男子惊慌失措毫无创意

415
00:14:54,330 --> 00:14:55,129
关于他的文章

416
00:14:55,129 --> 00:14:56,820
再次证明

417
00:14:56,820 --> 00:14:57,500
正如你所说

418
00:14:57,500 --> 00:15:01,549
这是苹果首次选择CEO

419
00:15:01,549 --> 00:15:03,289
并非仓促决定

420
00:15:03,289 --> 00:15:04,409
他们当时

421
00:15:04,409 --> 00:15:05,450
呃

422
00:15:05,850 --> 00:15:07,730
当时有五位候选人

423
00:15:07,730 --> 00:15:12,080
然而乔布斯却深知

424
00:15:12,080 --> 00:15:14,519
他是如何选中此人

425
00:15:14,519 --> 00:15:15,159
库克

426
00:15:15,159 --> 00:15:20,000
他是如何预见库克正是下一阶段人选

427
00:15:20,000 --> 00:15:23,309
库克的营收翻了三倍四倍

428
00:15:23,309 --> 00:15:24,049
营收增长

429
00:15:24,049 --> 00:15:25,970
利润和员工规模

430
00:15:25,970 --> 00:15:27,210
成效惊人

431
00:15:27,210 --> 00:15:28,389
难以置信

432
00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:28,769
没错

433
00:15:28,769 --> 00:15:32,059
从一个被说成非产品专家的人

434
00:15:32,059 --> 00:15:34,220
这是一次专业过渡

435
00:15:35,220 --> 00:15:38,490
乔布斯是否幸运

436
00:15:38,490 --> 00:15:39,710
还是真的

437
00:15:39,710 --> 00:15:45,529
竟精准选中性格迥异的CEO

438
00:15:45,529 --> 00:15:46,129
我说

439
00:15:46,129 --> 00:15:47,370
或许两者都有

440
00:15:47,370 --> 00:15:47,629
是啊

441
00:15:47,629 --> 00:15:48,090
这很有趣

442
00:15:48,090 --> 00:15:50,690
你说你关注洋葱报

443
00:15:50,690 --> 00:15:51,850
那篇总让我印象深刻的报道

444
00:15:51,850 --> 00:15:53,299
关于苹果的内容是

445
00:15:53,299 --> 00:15:53,740
你知道的

446
00:15:53,740 --> 00:15:54,659
苹果是

447
00:15:54,659 --> 00:15:55,840
我只是觉得

448
00:15:55,840 --> 00:15:57,259
我不记得确切的标题

449
00:15:57,259 --> 00:15:58,600
但这篇文章基本上是

450
00:15:58,600 --> 00:15:59,220
你知道的

451
00:15:59,220 --> 00:16:04,509
苹果正在研发新一代手机

452
00:16:04,509 --> 00:16:06,350
没错，因为大家总是盯着手机

453
00:16:06,350 --> 00:16:09,149
而且这比苹果手表发布前很久

454
00:16:09,149 --> 00:16:10,070
不出所料

455
00:16:10,070 --> 00:16:12,629
我觉得他们用手表成功了

456
00:16:12,629 --> 00:16:15,710
这就是另一只手的iPhone

457
00:16:16,250 --> 00:16:18,970
但谈到乔布斯和库克的区别

458
00:16:18,970 --> 00:16:20,840
我认为你完全正确

459
00:16:20,840 --> 00:16:22,240
而让我觉得有趣的是

460
00:16:22,240 --> 00:16:25,639
我认为华尔街投资者正在激烈争论

461
00:16:26,679 --> 00:16:29,330
说到创新方面

462
00:16:29,330 --> 00:16:33,940
这可能是当今对苹果最大的批评之一

463
00:16:33,940 --> 00:16:34,960
关于苹果而言

464
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,500
就是他们不再创新

465
00:16:37,500 --> 00:16:41,409
没错，但需要理性看待

466
00:16:41,409 --> 00:16:43,350
毕竟他们确实有创新能力

467
00:16:43,350 --> 00:16:45,860
在我看来这是最具创新力的公司之一

468
00:16:45,860 --> 00:16:50,240
但如今仍是主要手机厂商

469
00:16:50,240 --> 00:16:56,289
那么如何回应说苹果失去创新能力

470
00:16:56,730 --> 00:16:57,149
嗯

471
00:16:57,149 --> 00:17:02,750
我认为他们在说不再追随乔布斯

472
00:17:02,750 --> 00:17:06,730
每三年推出新产品的节奏

473
00:17:06,730 --> 00:17:08,618
突破新平台

474
00:17:08,618 --> 00:17:10,298
比如iMac

475
00:17:10,298 --> 00:17:11,138
iPod

476
00:17:11,138 --> 00:17:11,919
iPad

477
00:17:11,919 --> 00:17:12,538
iPhone

478
00:17:12,538 --> 00:17:14,690
像乔布斯在世时每三年一次

479
00:17:14,690 --> 00:17:15,170
是的

480
00:17:15,170 --> 00:17:17,130
没错，这种模式已不再延续

481
00:17:18,369 --> 00:17:19,990
并非他们没尝试过

482
00:17:19,990 --> 00:17:21,828
比如Vision Pro

483
00:17:21,828 --> 00:17:25,449
这确实非常创新

484
00:17:25,449 --> 00:17:28,710
拥有五千项专利

485
00:17:28,710 --> 00:17:30,390
配备十二个摄像头

486
00:17:30,390 --> 00:17:33,730
技术简直令人惊叹

487
00:17:33,730 --> 00:17:37,450
但实在太重、笨拙且昂贵

488
00:17:37,450 --> 00:17:38,710
售价三千五

489
00:17:38,710 --> 00:17:41,309
显然失败了

490
00:17:41,309 --> 00:17:44,170
但他们确实有创新

491
00:17:44,170 --> 00:17:45,710
还有汽车项目

492
00:17:45,710 --> 00:17:46,410
你知道的

493
00:17:46,410 --> 00:17:50,390
书中有一章讲泰坦计划

494
00:17:50,390 --> 00:17:55,150
试图设计电动自动驾驶

495
00:17:55,470 --> 00:17:57,950
移动的豪华客厅

496
00:17:57,950 --> 00:17:58,349
这个

497
00:17:58,349 --> 00:18:01,569
这款配备对坐座椅的泰坦车

498
00:18:01,569 --> 00:18:02,670
而且没有方向盘

499
00:18:02,670 --> 00:18:03,940
整个装置

500
00:18:03,940 --> 00:18:06,039
嗯，他们

501
00:18:06,039 --> 00:18:06,599
我的意思是

502
00:18:06,599 --> 00:18:09,480
他们在电池技术方面发明了很多

503
00:18:09,480 --> 00:18:10,579
屏幕技术

504
00:18:10,579 --> 00:18:13,279
据说音响系统堪称前所未有

505
00:18:13,279 --> 00:18:14,200
你从未听过

506
00:18:14,200 --> 00:18:15,250
嗯

507
00:18:16,819 --> 00:18:20,619
但确实他们不再每三年推出一次迭代

508
00:18:20,619 --> 00:18:22,599
另一款杰出的硬件产品

509
00:18:22,599 --> 00:18:24,970
但可以提出论点

510
00:18:24,970 --> 00:18:27,349
现在没人再这样做了

511
00:18:27,349 --> 00:18:29,449
你知道乔布斯出现了

512
00:18:29,449 --> 00:18:31,108
人类历史上最伟大的时代

513
00:18:31,108 --> 00:18:34,529
微型化与廉价内存

514
00:18:34,529 --> 00:18:37,210
加上中国制造业让这一切成为可能

515
00:18:38,490 --> 00:18:41,500
这些全新品类应运而生

516
00:18:41,500 --> 00:18:44,460
库克在其他领域也创新颇多

517
00:18:44,460 --> 00:18:48,159
没错，他将公司带入软件与服务领域

518
00:18:48,159 --> 00:18:51,078
你说苹果本质上是手机公司

519
00:18:51,078 --> 00:18:53,569
它有50%是手机公司

520
00:18:53,569 --> 00:18:55,589
另外50%是这些服务

521
00:18:55,589 --> 00:18:58,109
而Mac仅占8%

522
00:18:58,109 --> 00:18:59,069
嗯是的

523
00:18:59,069 --> 00:19:03,109
所以这一切都是库克在想办法

524
00:19:03,109 --> 00:19:03,910
从你知道的

525
00:19:03,910 --> 00:19:05,029
从利润角度来看

526
00:19:05,029 --> 00:19:07,799
简直是势如破竹

527
00:19:07,799 --> 00:19:08,019
没错

528
00:19:08,019 --> 00:19:08,799
因为没有

529
00:19:08,799 --> 00:19:12,380
提供服务不涉及硬件部件

530
00:19:12,380 --> 00:19:13,960
但它们非常受欢迎

531
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,839
Apple Music订阅量超过Spotify

532
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,680
你提到Vision Pro

533
00:19:19,680 --> 00:19:20,559
我曾进去体验

534
00:19:20,559 --> 00:19:22,700
一天在苹果店试驾了那个设备

535
00:19:22,700 --> 00:19:23,240
呃

536
00:19:23,240 --> 00:19:24,200
几年前的事

537
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:24,980
大概是在

538
00:19:24,980 --> 00:19:28,130
我当时震惊不已

539
00:19:28,130 --> 00:19:30,150
那里的技术简直令人惊叹

540
00:19:30,150 --> 00:19:32,569
这简直是魔法

541
00:19:32,569 --> 00:19:34,249
我同意太贵了

542
00:19:34,249 --> 00:19:34,888
太重了

543
00:19:34,888 --> 00:19:36,289
我不愿长时间佩戴

544
00:19:36,289 --> 00:19:37,009
而且它

545
00:19:37,009 --> 00:19:39,089
我认为需要找到杀手级应用

546
00:19:39,089 --> 00:19:41,210
找到真正使用场景才是关键

547
00:19:41,210 --> 00:19:43,170
可能我们还没到那一步

548
00:19:43,170 --> 00:19:47,130
但这款设备所采用的技术令人惊叹

549
00:19:47,130 --> 00:19:47,450
我当时

550
00:19:47,450 --> 00:19:49,690
我被它深深震撼了

551
00:19:49,690 --> 00:19:50,849
是啊

552
00:19:50,849 --> 00:19:53,190
我喜欢你在书中提到的

553
00:19:53,190 --> 00:19:55,839
这种痛苦链条的概念

554
00:19:55,839 --> 00:19:59,559
苹果识别破碎的消费者体验

555
00:19:59,559 --> 00:20:02,859
比如付费或整理照片

556
00:20:02,859 --> 00:20:06,079
然后他们迅速介入并改变一切

557
00:20:06,200 --> 00:20:12,140
你认为苹果接下来最可能颠覆哪个行业

558
00:20:12,140 --> 00:20:14,960
运用这种痛苦链条策略

559
00:20:14,960 --> 00:20:19,519
这直接切入了AI话题

560
00:20:19,519 --> 00:20:24,549
因为苹果在2024年展示的

561
00:20:24,549 --> 00:20:31,250
这个新的AI驱动系列具有私有防护机制

562
00:20:31,250 --> 00:20:34,470
可访问你的邮件和文件

563
00:20:34,470 --> 00:20:39,599
一位女士上台说Siri能做到

564
00:20:39,599 --> 00:20:40,220
几点了

565
00:20:40,220 --> 00:20:41,539
我得接妈妈

566
00:20:41,539 --> 00:20:42,740
她只说了这些

567
00:20:42,740 --> 00:20:45,750
幕后仅用十分之一秒

568
00:20:45,750 --> 00:20:47,710
它浏览了她的邮件

569
00:20:47,710 --> 00:20:50,690
发现妈妈要来感恩节拜访

570
00:20:50,690 --> 00:20:52,250
查看她的消息

571
00:20:52,250 --> 00:20:54,230
找到妈妈的航班号

572
00:20:54,230 --> 00:20:55,509
访问航班动态网站

573
00:20:55,509 --> 00:20:56,849
查询航班信息

574
00:20:56,849 --> 00:20:57,839
是否有延误

575
00:20:57,839 --> 00:21:00,359
查看谷歌地图路况

576
00:21:00,359 --> 00:21:03,660
然后说你需要1:20出发

577
00:21:03,900 --> 00:21:06,299
这真正具有颠覆性

578
00:21:06,299 --> 00:21:06,799
我意思是

579
00:21:06,799 --> 00:21:09,509
AI表现糟糕

580
00:21:09,509 --> 00:21:11,269
在某些方面仍会幻觉

581
00:21:11,269 --> 00:21:13,410
仍会出现错误

582
00:21:13,410 --> 00:21:16,130
但若苹果能做到

583
00:21:16,130 --> 00:21:20,970
让Siri成为绝对完美可靠的

584
00:21:20,970 --> 00:21:25,869
我们数字领域的AI之神

585
00:21:25,869 --> 00:21:26,888
数据领域

586
00:21:26,888 --> 00:21:27,648
嗯

587
00:21:27,648 --> 00:21:28,969
这将非常颠覆

588
00:21:28,969 --> 00:21:30,648
这是另一个痛苦链条

589
00:21:30,648 --> 00:21:31,449
我不断

590
00:21:31,449 --> 00:21:32,759
我不断触发

591
00:21:32,759 --> 00:21:34,059
我手机里的名字是什么

592
00:21:34,059 --> 00:21:35,019
抱歉

593
00:21:35,019 --> 00:21:35,480
抱歉

594
00:21:35,480 --> 00:21:37,000
所有听众

595
00:21:37,890 --> 00:21:38,910
没关系

596
00:21:38,910 --> 00:21:40,349
很高兴你提到

597
00:21:40,349 --> 00:21:40,710
AI

598
00:21:40,710 --> 00:21:42,250
因为我想今天做个总结

599
00:21:42,250 --> 00:21:43,619
稍微谈谈

600
00:21:43,619 --> 00:21:44,059
你知道的

601
00:21:44,059 --> 00:21:45,980
今天头条热议的话题

602
00:21:45,980 --> 00:21:47,220
就是人工智能

603
00:21:47,220 --> 00:21:48,279
每天都是

604
00:21:48,279 --> 00:21:52,819
现在我们注意到的一件事

605
00:21:52,819 --> 00:21:53,259
你知道的

606
00:21:53,259 --> 00:21:54,920
相比其他科技巨头

607
00:21:54,920 --> 00:21:56,880
看看苹果在人工智能上的投资

608
00:21:56,880 --> 00:21:59,400
相比之下非常非常少

609
00:21:59,400 --> 00:21:59,859
就像

610
00:21:59,859 --> 00:22:01,150
几乎可以忽略不计

611
00:22:01,150 --> 00:22:02,029
嗯

612
00:22:02,029 --> 00:22:03,450
这是否意味着

613
00:22:03,450 --> 00:22:05,750
他们想成为最好的

614
00:22:05,750 --> 00:22:06,410
而不是第一

615
00:22:06,410 --> 00:22:06,750
你知道的

616
00:22:06,750 --> 00:22:08,170
蒂姆·库克经常这么说

617
00:22:08,170 --> 00:22:09,190
我们不追求第一

618
00:22:09,190 --> 00:22:10,430
只想成为最好的

619
00:22:10,430 --> 00:22:13,069
而事实证明这对他们来说效果很好

620
00:22:13,069 --> 00:22:15,069
但或者这是否意味着

621
00:22:15,069 --> 00:22:18,109
他们可能还不确定方向

622
00:22:18,569 --> 00:22:19,089
我意思是

623
00:22:19,089 --> 00:22:21,450
他们确实有明确方向

624
00:22:21,450 --> 00:22:23,569
并且清楚目标

625
00:22:23,569 --> 00:22:27,059
顺便说一句，他们可能没得到足够认可

626
00:22:27,059 --> 00:22:27,859
在生成式

627
00:22:27,859 --> 00:22:29,888
人工智能领域

628
00:22:29,888 --> 00:22:33,328
他们审视了AI的弊端

629
00:22:33,328 --> 00:22:36,409
并巧妙规避了

630
00:22:36,409 --> 00:22:37,480
例如

631
00:22:37,480 --> 00:22:38,559
他们的AI

632
00:22:38,559 --> 00:22:39,980
用于写作时

633
00:22:39,980 --> 00:22:42,359
可以重写你的内容

634
00:22:42,359 --> 00:22:44,589
使其更正式或更随意

635
00:22:44,589 --> 00:22:47,130
可以更简洁

636
00:22:47,130 --> 00:22:48,289
可以总结

637
00:22:48,289 --> 00:22:50,309
但不会替你写作

638
00:22:50,309 --> 00:22:55,500
因为他们不希望学生用AI作弊作业

639
00:22:55,500 --> 00:22:56,859
现在有50%的学生在这么做

640
00:22:58,140 --> 00:23:00,420
他们反对深度伪造

641
00:23:00,420 --> 00:23:06,970
用AI生成他人从未说过的话或行为的图片视频

642
00:23:06,970 --> 00:23:08,809
所以他们打造了这个形象

643
00:23:08,809 --> 00:23:09,529
Playground应用

644
00:23:09,529 --> 00:23:10,929
属于生成艺术

645
00:23:10,929 --> 00:23:12,989
但仅限卡通风格

646
00:23:12,989 --> 00:23:13,729
你知道的

647
00:23:13,729 --> 00:23:15,288
类似三维卡通效果

648
00:23:15,288 --> 00:23:17,729
它并不试图制作虚假照片

649
00:23:17,729 --> 00:23:18,229
你知道的

650
00:23:18,229 --> 00:23:20,119
我非常欣赏这一点

651
00:23:20,119 --> 00:23:22,839
除了整个隐私问题，比如

652
00:23:22,839 --> 00:23:27,490
他们拒绝传递你的AI请求

653
00:23:27,490 --> 00:23:31,029
或任何可被捕捉的答案

654
00:23:31,029 --> 00:23:32,970
被研究或重复使用

655
00:23:32,970 --> 00:23:35,730
用于训练新的大型语言模型

656
00:23:35,730 --> 00:23:37,150
所以嗯

657
00:23:37,150 --> 00:23:39,089
但说到你的观点

658
00:23:39,089 --> 00:23:43,220
苹果遇到的麻烦有很多新闻

659
00:23:43,220 --> 00:23:44,880
像那个时间演示

660
00:23:44,880 --> 00:23:45,680
我该接妈妈吗

661
00:23:45,680 --> 00:23:47,388
那已经是快两年前的事了

662
00:23:47,388 --> 00:23:48,949
是的，这还没发生

663
00:23:48,949 --> 00:23:49,148
却

664
00:23:49,148 --> 00:23:50,269
他们说很快

665
00:23:50,269 --> 00:23:50,909
但他们

666
00:23:50,909 --> 00:23:55,108
他们已与谷歌达成协议，使用其Gemini AI

667
00:23:55,108 --> 00:23:56,669
来驱动所有这些功能

668
00:23:58,548 --> 00:24:02,470
他们在高管层经历了人员更替

669
00:24:02,470 --> 00:24:04,049
很多员工被挖走

670
00:24:04,049 --> 00:24:04,829
正如你所说

671
00:24:04,829 --> 00:24:08,859
他们大幅减少了在NVIDIA显卡上的投入

672
00:24:10,779 --> 00:24:14,509
但刚写完一本关于苹果前50年的书

673
00:24:14,509 --> 00:24:18,640
我可以告诉你，在苹果历史上

674
00:24:18,640 --> 00:24:21,759
从未有过不被质疑的时期

675
00:24:21,759 --> 00:24:23,420
公司迷失了方向

676
00:24:23,420 --> 00:24:25,220
公司不知所措

677
00:24:25,220 --> 00:24:27,940
公司犯了错误

678
00:24:27,940 --> 00:24:29,859
比如菲利普·席勒

679
00:24:29,859 --> 00:24:33,740
曾长期担任营销负责人

680
00:24:33,740 --> 00:24:37,250
如果我们不被批评搞砸了

681
00:24:37,250 --> 00:24:38,869
那就说明我们创新不足

682
00:24:38,869 --> 00:24:42,009
还记得AirPods像棉签一样

683
00:24:42,009 --> 00:24:44,719
还有iPad

684
00:24:44,719 --> 00:24:47,138
听起来像女性卫生用品

685
00:24:47,138 --> 00:24:49,798
大家都不看好

686
00:24:49,798 --> 00:24:50,558
总是这样

687
00:24:50,558 --> 00:24:51,470
你知道的

688
00:24:51,470 --> 00:24:52,230
AirPods

689
00:24:52,230 --> 00:24:53,589
它们并不连接

690
00:24:53,589 --> 00:24:54,789
你会弄丢的

691
00:24:54,789 --> 00:24:56,230
注定要失败

692
00:24:56,230 --> 00:24:59,380
主流观点几乎总是错误

693
00:24:59,380 --> 00:25:01,180
我认为这就是AirPods的魅力

694
00:25:01,180 --> 00:25:03,259
我有两个孩子怎么都摘不下来

695
00:25:03,259 --> 00:25:04,460
但有时会弄丢

696
00:25:04,460 --> 00:25:05,859
就得再买一副

697
00:25:05,859 --> 00:25:06,099
没错

698
00:25:06,099 --> 00:25:09,279
这就是它的巧妙之处，一旦你上瘾了

699
00:25:09,279 --> 00:25:09,599
你就离不开它了

700
00:25:09,599 --> 00:25:10,240
当你失去它们时

701
00:25:10,240 --> 00:25:11,799
你必须立刻购买新对

702
00:25:11,799 --> 00:25:12,259
是啊

703
00:25:12,259 --> 00:25:12,759
没错

704
00:25:12,759 --> 00:25:14,220
我感谢你提到的

705
00:25:14,220 --> 00:25:15,000
呃

706
00:25:15,000 --> 00:25:16,859
蒂姆·库克对隐私的专注

707
00:25:16,859 --> 00:25:18,579
这一直让我印象深刻

708
00:25:18,579 --> 00:25:19,680
关于他和关于

709
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:20,119
你知道的

710
00:25:20,119 --> 00:25:20,779
苹果公司整体

711
00:25:20,779 --> 00:25:22,809
我觉得这对很多人很重要

712
00:25:22,809 --> 00:25:23,589
好的

713
00:25:23,589 --> 00:25:24,069
最后一个问题

714
00:25:24,069 --> 00:25:25,000
我该让你离开了

715
00:25:25,000 --> 00:25:26,940
我们聊过一点AI

716
00:25:26,940 --> 00:25:29,299
你提到Siri和其他机会

717
00:25:29,299 --> 00:25:31,279
但根据你今日所知

718
00:25:31,279 --> 00:25:32,000
你认为

719
00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:36,900
苹果在AI领域最大的机遇其实是

720
00:25:38,689 --> 00:25:44,548
超越单纯ChatGPT式的

721
00:25:44,548 --> 00:25:45,669
聊天机器人

722
00:25:45,669 --> 00:25:49,069
生成式内容并融入

723
00:25:49,069 --> 00:25:54,029
悄然渗透到iPhone每个角落

724
00:25:54,029 --> 00:25:54,589
的Mac

725
00:25:54,589 --> 00:25:55,309
的iPod

726
00:25:55,309 --> 00:25:56,269
换句话说

727
00:25:58,660 --> 00:26:00,839
这不是单一庞大系统

728
00:26:00,839 --> 00:26:04,519
他们会让每个小功能更智能

729
00:26:04,519 --> 00:26:07,130
另一方面是

730
00:26:07,849 --> 00:26:12,130
这件事似乎被主流媒体忽视了

731
00:26:12,130 --> 00:26:18,069
苹果以惊人方式转型为医疗器械公司

732
00:26:18,069 --> 00:26:25,578
比如手表能预警多种致命疾病

733
00:26:25,578 --> 00:26:29,119
提前警示房颤症状

734
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,279
这是最常见的心律失常疾病

735
00:26:32,279 --> 00:26:34,888
导致35%患者中风

736
00:26:34,888 --> 00:26:36,368
顺便说一句

737
00:26:36,368 --> 00:26:39,088
诊所无法检测房颤

738
00:26:39,088 --> 00:26:41,009
因为症状间歇性发作

739
00:26:41,009 --> 00:26:44,289
必须全天佩戴设备才能捕捉

740
00:26:44,289 --> 00:26:45,690
高血压

741
00:26:45,690 --> 00:26:46,930
高血压可能

742
00:26:46,930 --> 00:26:48,430
现在他们能预测了

743
00:26:48,430 --> 00:26:51,069
今年预计诊断一百万人

744
00:26:51,069 --> 00:26:51,869
嗯

745
00:26:51,869 --> 00:26:54,430
睡眠呼吸暂停很危险

746
00:26:54,430 --> 00:26:56,109
设备能监测到

747
00:26:56,109 --> 00:26:58,730
分析你的睡眠状态

748
00:26:58,730 --> 00:27:00,349
随着时间的推移，你慢慢走过

749
00:27:00,349 --> 00:27:03,470
正在寻找帕金森病的早期检测嗯

750
00:27:03,470 --> 00:27:04,549
他们才刚刚起步

751
00:27:04,549 --> 00:27:08,799
他们在持续血糖监测上投入了大量资金

752
00:27:08,799 --> 00:27:10,220
而令人震惊的是

753
00:27:10,220 --> 00:27:11,759
这一切都在你的手腕上

754
00:27:13,200 --> 00:27:13,440
就像

755
00:27:13,440 --> 00:27:15,579
它了解你的睡眠阶段吗

756
00:27:15,579 --> 00:27:16,299
就在上面

757
00:27:16,299 --> 00:27:17,240
在你的大脑里

758
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:19,319
它了解你胸腔中的心脏状况吗

759
00:27:19,319 --> 00:27:20,710
就戴在手腕上

760
00:27:20,710 --> 00:27:22,269
这简直令人难以置信

761
00:27:22,269 --> 00:27:22,930
而现在他们

762
00:27:22,930 --> 00:27:26,529
也开始将AirPods视为医疗工具

763
00:27:26,529 --> 00:27:29,750
他们刚在耳内增加了心率监测

764
00:27:29,750 --> 00:27:32,789
我真不敢想象他们还能带这技术去哪

765
00:27:32,789 --> 00:27:37,440
我知道他们还有许多其他先进医疗项目

766
00:27:37,440 --> 00:27:39,539
正在智能手表和AirPods上推进

767
00:27:39,539 --> 00:27:43,170
人工智能在其中发挥了巨大作用

768
00:27:43,529 --> 00:27:47,369
他的新书《苹果：五十周年》现已出版

769
00:27:47,369 --> 00:27:48,950
可在各大书店购买

770
00:27:48,950 --> 00:27:49,829
务必查看

771
00:27:49,829 --> 00:27:51,210
David Pogue官网

772
00:27:51,210 --> 00:27:52,519
精彩网站

773
00:27:52,519 --> 00:27:53,380
David Pogue

774
00:27:53,380 --> 00:27:55,279
再次感谢您今天的分享

775
00:27:55,279 --> 00:27:56,359
这真是一次愉快的交流

776
00:27:56,359 --> 00:27:57,160
谢谢杰森

777
00:27:57,160 --> 00:27:58,440
我非常感谢

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