【Couch Investor】美股最遭唾弃的巨头开始爆发

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的视频

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在今天的视频中我们将讨论很多内容

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很多公司股价正在大幅波动

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无论是大幅上涨还是暴跌

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就像我们看到的z scaler情况

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现在snowflake上涨了约30%

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在发布季度财报后

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Salesforce基本持平

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我们有这只股票上涨近10%

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因为leopold披露了5%的持仓

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持有meta约6%的股份，昨日上涨3%

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市场可能开始追逐这只股票

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我们将再次分析

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同时也会看DCF估值

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现在

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Snowflake和Salesforce的有趣之处在于

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两者的主要区别在于

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当然是一种非常基础的

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种子模式商业模式

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而另一方则是消费模式

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正如我们看到的Datadog和其他公司

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消费模式商业模式表现极佳

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从近期财报结果来看

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我认为这将持续下去

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我们讨论过从种子模式到消费模式再到成果模式的转变

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这也是整个软件行业全面重估的原因

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或者说软件行业已全面重估

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如果你拥有旧商业模式

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但必须进行转型

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市场正在提出问题

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新商业模式的盈利能力如何

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像Datadog这样的公司

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如Snowflake正在证明

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我们可以继续增长

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这种商业模式显然是正确的

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尤其是在AI时代

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现在我们有一个重要区别，我将首先

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从Nebusince开始

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Neis是我持仓的重要部分

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我将分享对

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这只股票是否仅因上涨10%合理

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因为Leopold披露了5%持仓

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正如你所见

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这不是13F文件

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而是13G文件

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这意味着自上次以来

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我们每个季度都会收到

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但超过一定阈值后

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需要再次披露

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这意味着现在

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6.6% 的持仓对他来说变得越来越大

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他一直在

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或者情境意识

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Llc 成为一个非常热门话题

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没错因为他很早就参与了许多高飞的股票

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在整个AI生态系统中也是如此

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现在

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别忘了

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这就是我一开始说的

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我认为超过两千万美元

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他曾是Open平台的撰稿研究员

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AI方面，他的女友显然在Entropic工作

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所以我推测有很多内幕信息

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这不是指控

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这只是个假设

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只是一个假设

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所以当你得到这类结果时

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你会听到很多

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人们在谈论你

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就像2021年的猫王现象

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她买的任何东西

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她谈论的任何内容

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我想这只股票确实有波动

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然后我们有汤姆·李和其他类似人物

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每个周期

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总会有新话题人物出现

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每当这个人买入或卖出

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显然会影响股价

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这对我来说有意义吗

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这里完全没道理

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我开心吗

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我不介意

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不过我觉得现在不太健康

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如果我们越来越多看到这种情况

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那确实

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我们已进入这个周期的某个阶段

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牛市周期

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尤其是现在完全不合逻辑

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为什么股票价值会涨10%

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仅仅因为那个人不是巴菲特

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我们讨论的是十多年前起步的一个人

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却大幅提升了基金价值

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再次祝贺他

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但这不该发生

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这就是Nebulous目前的处境

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实际上

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昨天股价涨至240美元

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创历史新高

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恭喜

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有人已经开始猜测

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哦

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也许他在继续购买

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因为他知道可能会有新的熵交易机会

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我不知道这些理论是谁提出的

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这可能是真的

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也可能是假的

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但对我来说毫无区别

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我认为Nebuts的思路是对的

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我认为他们的执行非常非常出色

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让他们做他们最擅长的事

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这完全不会改变什么

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如果我们现在看Snowflake

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如果你看这里四月中旬的底部

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现在盘前交易已翻倍

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股价达到240美元

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之前底部在121美元左右

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他们报告股票现价175美元

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240美元上涨超30%

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为什么会这样呢

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这里是股市的快速概览

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Nerd产品收入超预期4.7%

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超出预期4.7%

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超出指引5.2%

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超出预期3.8%并超出毛利率指引3点

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每股收益超预期7美分

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指引方面同样全面超预期

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他们重申了全年毛利率指引

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我们看到的依然是

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全面超出预期

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未达预期

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可能会拖累你的股票

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尤其是软件行业

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你的股票可能下跌

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如果未达预期

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如果指引也不见改善

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你的股票可能被重挫

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但Snowflake展现的是

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业务全面高效运转

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商业模式完全正确

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并且他们还拓展了新合作伙伴

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比如亚马逊AWS

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以及OpenAI，显然在传递信号

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我们并未被完全颠覆

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AI反而让业务更强大

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我们发展更快，这才是理想状态

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在整个SaaS领域

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需要展现复苏迹象

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这是我们之前讨论过的内容

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需证明业务具备韧性

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需向市场展示业务韧性

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人工智能正在加速业务发展

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仅仅展示良好结果还不够

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你需要展示

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或许还需要加速或重大改进

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多亏了人工智能，这样你就能完全解决这些问题

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而这正是Snowflake目前证明的

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至于Salesforce这里

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是不同的商业模式

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同样有不同的增长模式

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不同的盈利模式

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你现在看到的是Salesforce单季度的股票回购

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这是单季度数据

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第二十七点

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单季度投入两亿美元

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但股价却下跌了

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令人惊叹的是他们单季度回购的股份数量

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但业务方面呢

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正如你清楚看到的

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他们试图向华尔街展示

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消费AI正在提升业务表现

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或许也在加速业务发展

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你可以看到Flex Credit

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这部分在这里

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这部分转化为Agentforce应用

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Flex Credit使客户能够无缝迁移消费至我们的Agentforce应用和数据

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360度无头平台及其他类别

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这又带我们来到这部分

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Agentforce应用

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本财年增长了7%

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即2027财年第一季度7%

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数据360度无头平台

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其他15%

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但23%

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2027财年第一季度

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因此本财年订阅与支持收入为10%

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2027年第一季度将达12%

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2027年

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总体而言他们正努力向市场展示

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这里有核心业务

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但还有Agentforce部分

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这是他们长期强调的内容

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去年的信息已明确

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2027年

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2027财年将是见证

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业务中更多Agentforce优势的年份

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好的现在不错

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看到Agentforce收入同比增长5%很令人欣慰

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但目前这部分仍占整体业务较小比例

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如果每个季度持续三位数增长

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最终将成为重要组成部分

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但目前我们仍看到本季度的情况

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例如

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营收增长至111亿美元

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同比上涨13%

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当前RPO增长14%

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RPO同比增长11%

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总订阅量增长14%

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代理应用增长9%

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所以再次

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代理应用增长略慢于此

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这仍然是一个非常盈利的业务

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但即使有这些结果

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股价反应平淡

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这意味着还不够

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无论我们是否认同这一点

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这是另一个话题

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业务确实在发展

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好的

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并没有特别出色

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表现尚可

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并没有特别出色

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就像我们看到Snowflake为Salesforce带来的增长

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或许市场需要理解或信任这一点

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他们所处的轨迹是正确的

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在此期间

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是的

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如果你认为市场完全误解了这一点

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或许这是机会，没错

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这并非高估的股票

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没错

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如果看市盈率

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市盈率20.3倍对应41亿美元

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12.7倍

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好的

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这不是快速增长的股票

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不像许多其他软件股

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科技股等

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但它绝对不是高估的股票

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利润率依然很好

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所以再次

241
00:09:25,259 --> 00:09:26,480
这是一只被误杀的股票

242
00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,019
我不认为公司本身有问题

243
00:09:28,019 --> 00:09:32,289
但毫无疑问，目前这只股票确实被误判

244
00:09:32,289 --> 00:09:35,860
但当然，Meta也曾是只股票

245
00:09:35,860 --> 00:09:38,080
而Meta目前仍下跌1个百分点

246
00:09:38,080 --> 00:09:38,679
8%

247
00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:39,460
今年以来

248
00:09:39,460 --> 00:09:43,159
过去12个月至今仍持平

249
00:09:43,159 --> 00:09:45,559
Meta正如你所知是我目前最看好的股票之一

250
00:09:45,559 --> 00:09:46,840
而且已有一段时间了

251
00:09:46,840 --> 00:09:47,759
我一直都在说这个

252
00:09:47,759 --> 00:09:50,860
我觉得这就像2025年的谷歌

253
00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:53,679
这是一家成长迅速的廉价公司

254
00:09:53,679 --> 00:09:55,620
这是一家成长迅速的廉价公司

255
00:09:55,620 --> 00:09:55,980
是的

256
00:09:55,980 --> 00:09:57,538
资本支出就是

257
00:09:57,538 --> 00:09:59,460
现在的问题在于

258
00:09:59,460 --> 00:10:01,139
但再说一次

259
00:10:01,139 --> 00:10:08,009
如果他们已经在业务中看到显著提升，花这么多钱是有道理的

260
00:10:08,009 --> 00:10:11,110
人们一次又一次谈论的事实是

261
00:10:11,110 --> 00:10:11,370
好的

262
00:10:11,370 --> 00:10:13,450
如果Meta有云业务

263
00:10:13,450 --> 00:10:17,870
股价可能远超每股638美元

264
00:10:17,870 --> 00:10:19,710
1.6万亿美元

265
00:10:19,710 --> 00:10:20,690
我同意

266
00:10:20,690 --> 00:10:25,539
扎克伯格多次提到这一点

267
00:10:25,539 --> 00:10:25,799
实际上

268
00:10:25,799 --> 00:10:26,299
我相信

269
00:10:26,299 --> 00:10:28,440
甚至在年度股东大会上

270
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:30,519
他们也聊过这个

271
00:10:30,519 --> 00:10:32,559
他反复强调这一点

272
00:10:32,559 --> 00:10:33,210
看吧

273
00:10:33,210 --> 00:10:38,309
每周都有人来找我们申请API接口

274
00:10:38,309 --> 00:10:42,049
询问是否可以出租计算资源

275
00:10:42,049 --> 00:10:44,070
当然成本会高于我们支付的

276
00:10:44,070 --> 00:10:46,850
这可能成为一项盈利业务

277
00:10:46,850 --> 00:10:52,749
但目前他们认为所有投资

278
00:10:52,749 --> 00:10:56,580
目前都服务于自身业务

279
00:10:56,580 --> 00:11:00,539
但市场尚未理解这一点

280
00:11:00,539 --> 00:11:06,059
最终他们会明白，我认为最终Meta会达到

281
00:11:06,059 --> 00:11:08,250
你们知道我们可以做这些事

282
00:11:08,250 --> 00:11:09,929
但我们也可以搭建API

283
00:11:09,929 --> 00:11:12,389
也可以出租部分计算资源

284
00:11:12,389 --> 00:11:13,330
为什么不呢

285
00:11:13,330 --> 00:11:15,220
仅仅因为这种信息

286
00:11:15,220 --> 00:11:17,889
股价可能会上涨

287
00:11:17,889 --> 00:11:22,299
这基本上是关于大型资本支出布局的疑问

288
00:11:22,299 --> 00:11:22,639
AI

289
00:11:22,639 --> 00:11:25,940
你会考虑建立云服务与AWS竞争吗

290
00:11:25,940 --> 00:11:27,169
Azure等

291
00:11:27,169 --> 00:11:28,570
你能回答这个问题吗

292
00:11:28,570 --> 00:11:29,318
请

293
00:11:29,318 --> 00:11:29,859
先生

294
00:11:29,859 --> 00:11:31,139
这肯定在考虑范围内

295
00:11:31,139 --> 00:11:33,359
我去年在财报会上说过

296
00:11:33,359 --> 00:11:37,720
几乎每周都有外部公司

297
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:40,299
要求我们搭建API服务

298
00:11:40,299 --> 00:11:42,480
或询问是否能购买计算资源

299
00:11:42,480 --> 00:11:46,059
以高于我们成本的价格

300
00:11:46,059 --> 00:11:47,840
但我们还没这么做

301
00:11:47,840 --> 00:11:50,659
因为我们认为计算资源有其用途

302
00:11:50,659 --> 00:11:54,799
但显然如果我们感到过度建设了

303
00:11:54,799 --> 00:11:56,360
这就是我们拥有的选项

304
00:11:56,360 --> 00:12:01,460
这也是我们有信心投资扩展的原因之一

305
00:12:01,460 --> 00:12:03,080
这完全合乎逻辑

306
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:05,799
因为这是一个双赢局面，再次强调

307
00:12:05,799 --> 00:12:08,899
市场却不愿相信这个故事

308
00:12:08,899 --> 00:12:09,980
这很愚蠢

309
00:12:09,980 --> 00:12:10,360
现在

310
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:13,320
这确实让股价昨日略有波动

311
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:14,419
上涨了三点

312
00:12:14,419 --> 00:12:15,379
大约百分之三

313
00:12:15,379 --> 00:12:17,089
这是meta推出

314
00:12:17,089 --> 00:12:17,448
Instagram

315
00:12:20,609 --> 00:12:25,029
包括AI计划，每月只需几美元

316
00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:32,360
将获得额外功能如个人资料

317
00:12:32,360 --> 00:12:33,080
自定义设置

318
00:12:33,080 --> 00:12:33,840
超级反应

319
00:12:33,840 --> 00:12:34,320
等等

320
00:12:34,320 --> 00:12:35,139
等等

321
00:12:35,139 --> 00:12:40,059
还有专门的Meta AI订阅计划

322
00:12:40,059 --> 00:12:42,769
Meta One每月8美元

323
00:12:42,769 --> 00:12:47,200
Meta One Premium每月20美元针对Meta AI用户

324
00:12:47,200 --> 00:12:49,779
最终我认为他们会想通的

325
00:12:49,779 --> 00:12:51,480
因为目前仍处于早期阶段

326
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:53,000
当然，这已经有一段时间了

327
00:12:53,000 --> 00:12:54,940
Meta验证计划

328
00:12:54,940 --> 00:12:56,940
我推测这进行得不错

329
00:12:56,940 --> 00:12:59,100
这也是他们测试新计划的原因

330
00:12:59,100 --> 00:13:01,899
他们承认Meta仍在实验AI

331
00:13:01,899 --> 00:13:04,029
并推出专业版计划

332
00:13:04,029 --> 00:13:06,789
但目标是将其整合到Meta One

333
00:13:06,789 --> 00:13:10,259
未来将持续更新和扩展

334
00:13:10,259 --> 00:13:15,340
目前还无法确定具体价格

335
00:13:15,340 --> 00:13:17,360
但我认为最终他们会推出

336
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:18,600
我估计三个层级

337
00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:19,789
可能四个层级

338
00:13:19,789 --> 00:13:22,990
每个层级包含所有功能

339
00:13:22,990 --> 00:13:23,549
等等

340
00:13:23,549 --> 00:13:25,690
就像亚马逊Prime

341
00:13:25,690 --> 00:13:27,970
谷歌订阅服务等

342
00:13:27,970 --> 00:13:29,190
等等

343
00:13:29,190 --> 00:13:30,639
这完全合理

344
00:13:30,639 --> 00:13:31,080
没错

345
00:13:31,080 --> 00:13:31,519
我说

346
00:13:31,519 --> 00:13:36,279
那些认为Meta验证订阅会停止的人

347
00:13:36,279 --> 00:13:38,149
他们没有关注

348
00:13:38,149 --> 00:13:39,309
如果你观察

349
00:13:39,309 --> 00:13:40,330
例如

350
00:13:40,330 --> 00:13:42,929
收购低端公司

351
00:13:42,929 --> 00:13:46,789
但Snap拥有超过2500万付费Snapchat用户

352
00:13:46,789 --> 00:13:48,200
加上订阅用户

353
00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:48,919
这相当于2.6%

354
00:13:48,919 --> 00:13:50,620
占月活用户的2.6%

355
00:13:50,620 --> 00:13:54,639
并带来超过十亿美元的年收入

356
00:13:54,639 --> 00:13:56,318
现在Snapchat

357
00:13:56,318 --> 00:13:58,759
如果Meta能将同样的2.6%转化率

358
00:13:58,759 --> 00:14:03,059
应用于其36亿月活用户的2.6%

359
00:14:03,059 --> 00:14:05,480
将每年产生额外44.8亿美元的高毛利收入

360
00:14:05,480 --> 00:14:09,490
这相当于每年44.8亿美元的高毛利收入

361
00:14:09,490 --> 00:14:10,929
这相当于2-3%的营收增长

362
00:14:10,929 --> 00:14:13,860
看似增幅不大

363
00:14:13,860 --> 00:14:15,700
但我们讨论的是36亿用户中的2.6%

364
00:14:15,700 --> 00:14:18,080
仅占36亿用户中的2.6%

365
00:14:18,080 --> 00:14:22,629
可能这里提到的是四五美元

366
00:14:22,629 --> 00:14:25,139
当然还有不同定价层级

367
00:14:25,139 --> 00:14:26,580
但不妨想想

368
00:14:26,580 --> 00:14:27,779
如果达到5%

369
00:14:27,779 --> 00:14:30,480
年收入将骤增至约100亿美元

370
00:14:30,480 --> 00:14:33,799
每年额外带来十亿美元高毛利收入

371
00:14:33,799 --> 00:14:38,429
这就是像Meta这样的公司可以操作的杠杆

372
00:14:38,429 --> 00:14:39,710
你拥有庞大的分发渠道

373
00:14:39,710 --> 00:14:42,590
拥有数十亿高度活跃用户

374
00:14:43,590 --> 00:14:46,429
可以推出更多订阅服务

375
00:14:46,429 --> 00:14:47,629
你并不需要大量用户

376
00:14:47,629 --> 00:14:48,990
需要大量用户订阅

377
00:14:48,990 --> 00:14:51,620
就能创造数十亿美元收入

378
00:14:51,620 --> 00:14:53,919
2.6%已对应44.8亿

379
00:14:53,919 --> 00:14:54,639
八亿美元

380
00:14:54,639 --> 00:14:57,840
5%则接近十亿美元

381
00:14:57,840 --> 00:14:59,110
依此类推

382
00:14:59,110 --> 00:15:00,610
这增速会有多快

383
00:15:00,610 --> 00:15:01,149
我不确定

384
00:15:01,149 --> 00:15:03,789
但这再次展示了他们的潜力

385
00:15:03,789 --> 00:15:05,830
所有人都在担忧资本支出

386
00:15:05,830 --> 00:15:07,429
投资回报率等问题

387
00:15:07,429 --> 00:15:08,389
现实实验室部门

388
00:15:08,389 --> 00:15:10,769
现实实验室也是他们讨论的重点

389
00:15:10,769 --> 00:15:13,090
亏损将与2025年持平

390
00:15:13,090 --> 00:15:14,549
随后应会改善

391
00:15:14,549 --> 00:15:17,100
或希望逐步改善

392
00:15:17,100 --> 00:15:19,490
但人们忽视了Meta

393
00:15:19,490 --> 00:15:21,549
只因关注资本支出

394
00:15:21,549 --> 00:15:22,330
出于某种原因

395
00:15:22,330 --> 00:15:26,200
不愿审视核心业务的盈利能力

396
00:15:26,200 --> 00:15:29,840
AI已为核心业务带来的效益

397
00:15:30,110 --> 00:15:32,570
并遗忘其过往业绩

398
00:15:32,570 --> 00:15:36,860
我们几周前已完成Meta的DCF分析

399
00:15:36,860 --> 00:15:41,379
现在基于我们当前的基础案例价格

400
00:15:41,379 --> 00:15:42,419
我们仍然看到年

401
00:15:42,419 --> 00:15:42,740
三十

402
00:15:42,740 --> 00:15:43,259
五点

403
00:15:43,259 --> 00:15:45,429
牛市情景下的1.1% upside

404
00:15:45,429 --> 00:15:46,210
接近八十

405
00:15:46,210 --> 00:15:47,190
熊市情景

406
00:15:47,190 --> 00:15:48,070
十四点

407
00:15:48,070 --> 00:15:49,370
四个百分点的 downside

408
00:15:49,370 --> 00:15:52,870
这就是当整个资本支出计划完全失败时

409
00:15:52,870 --> 00:15:53,870
这些是我们的假设

410
00:15:53,870 --> 00:15:56,169
这些是你自己可以做的

411
00:15:56,169 --> 00:15:57,590
对你们所有人都是免费的

412
00:15:57,590 --> 00:15:58,950
所以这些是我的假设

413
00:15:58,950 --> 00:16:02,610
我认为确实有可能实现营收增长

414
00:16:02,610 --> 00:16:03,850
稍有利润率

415
00:16:03,850 --> 00:16:06,309
完全现实可行

416
00:16:06,309 --> 00:16:08,509
所以我们达到了这些数字

417
00:16:08,509 --> 00:16:10,169
这里就是营收数据

418
00:16:10,169 --> 00:16:11,649
约七百四十

419
00:16:11,649 --> 00:16:14,799
2035年达到一百四十亿美元

420
00:16:14,799 --> 00:16:15,100
是的

421
00:16:15,100 --> 00:16:17,000
十年后会发生什么

422
00:16:17,000 --> 00:16:17,480
我不知道

423
00:16:17,480 --> 00:16:22,039
这就是为什么你要尽可能做出最佳猜测

424
00:16:22,039 --> 00:16:23,159
对于牛市情景

425
00:16:23,159 --> 00:16:24,480
当然必须非常乐观

426
00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:26,840
必须假设他们现在所做的所有事情

427
00:16:26,840 --> 00:16:27,820
所有这些投资

428
00:16:27,820 --> 00:16:29,909
投资回报率会非常好

429
00:16:29,909 --> 00:16:32,909
基础案例仅关注当前的元宇宙业务

430
00:16:32,909 --> 00:16:35,429
他们正在做出的投资并保持现实

431
00:16:35,429 --> 00:16:36,570
看看盈利能力

432
00:16:36,570 --> 00:16:37,509
他们能做什么

433
00:16:37,509 --> 00:16:39,710
这就是我们现在达到的水平

434
00:16:39,710 --> 00:16:40,730
对于基础案例

435
00:16:40,730 --> 00:16:42,179
我认为这很合理

436
00:16:43,039 --> 00:16:43,559
是的

437
00:16:43,559 --> 00:16:46,700
在我看来仍然严重被低估

438
00:16:46,700 --> 00:16:49,100
何时会回到每股八百美元

439
00:16:49,100 --> 00:16:49,600
我不知道

440
00:16:49,600 --> 00:16:55,990
但我认为Meta被市场讨厌不会持续太久

441
00:16:55,990 --> 00:16:58,840
我认为管理层完全清楚在做什么

442
00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:00,159
我们之前见过这种情况

443
00:17:00,159 --> 00:17:01,960
我们之前在Meta身上见过

444
00:17:01,960 --> 00:17:04,140
当他们大量投资元宇宙时

445
00:17:04,140 --> 00:17:05,519
尽管这确实帮助了他们

446
00:17:05,519 --> 00:17:08,859
提前大量采购GPU

447
00:17:08,859 --> 00:17:09,598
是的

448
00:17:09,598 --> 00:17:11,919
我认为Llama4是个失败

449
00:17:11,919 --> 00:17:15,919
我认为Muse Park是朝着正确方向迈出的非常重要的一步

450
00:17:15,919 --> 00:17:19,079
而当他们推出下一代Mu Spark时

451
00:17:19,079 --> 00:17:20,759
应该很快就会到来

452
00:17:20,759 --> 00:17:22,259
因为现在他们可以更快行动

453
00:17:22,259 --> 00:17:25,390
因为他们已经有了非常优秀的模型

454
00:17:25,390 --> 00:17:26,509
可以更快推进

455
00:17:26,509 --> 00:17:31,650
我认为这些头条新闻将开始改变市场对Meta的看法

456
00:17:31,650 --> 00:17:32,869
如果不行的话

457
00:17:32,869 --> 00:17:38,029
那么我们将能以大幅折价买入仍快速增长的高利润企业

458
00:17:38,029 --> 00:17:40,179
以折扣价入手

459
00:17:40,179 --> 00:17:40,898
所以现在

460
00:17:40,898 --> 00:17:41,499
如果你观察一下

461
00:17:41,499 --> 00:17:42,098
这里的日线图

462
00:17:42,098 --> 00:17:44,699
可以看到昨天的大阳线

463
00:17:44,699 --> 00:17:47,098
现在我们将突破百日均线

464
00:17:47,098 --> 00:17:50,490
这意味着我们将试图收复盈利差距

465
00:17:50,490 --> 00:17:52,869
需要完全填补盈利差距

466
00:17:52,869 --> 00:17:55,170
我们需要回调至665美元

467
00:17:55,170 --> 00:17:57,309
大约670美元左右

468
00:17:57,309 --> 00:18:01,829
这仍将接近200日均线

469
00:18:01,829 --> 00:18:02,650
最后

470
00:18:02,650 --> 00:18:02,890
据称

471
00:18:02,890 --> 00:18:05,920
特朗普政府正在与无人机公司洽谈

472
00:18:05,920 --> 00:18:09,660
或与多家无人机公司就融资协议进行谈判

473
00:18:09,660 --> 00:18:11,220
正如你可能猜到的

474
00:18:11,220 --> 00:18:14,798
许多无人机股已经开始持续上涨

475
00:18:14,798 --> 00:18:17,480
尽管许多股票已经大幅上涨

476
00:18:17,480 --> 00:18:20,940
基于更多政府合同的预期

477
00:18:20,940 --> 00:18:23,220
更多无人机投资

478
00:18:23,220 --> 00:18:27,329
但尚未反映在季度财报中

479
00:18:27,329 --> 00:18:27,990
好的

480
00:18:27,990 --> 00:18:28,950
但你知道的

481
00:18:28,950 --> 00:18:31,589
我们仍处于新闻驱动型市场

482
00:18:31,589 --> 00:18:34,049
无论是正面还是负面消息

483
00:18:34,049 --> 00:18:36,210
新闻推动股价

484
00:18:36,210 --> 00:18:38,049
正如我们看到的AI概念股

485
00:18:38,049 --> 00:18:38,650
记忆科技

486
00:18:38,650 --> 00:18:39,890
Neo Clouds

487
00:18:39,890 --> 00:18:40,650
等等

488
00:18:40,650 --> 00:18:45,329
现在无论是无人机、量子还是核能都不重要

489
00:18:45,329 --> 00:18:47,130
新闻驱动型市场

490
00:18:47,130 --> 00:18:50,409
这对长期发展并不健康

491
00:18:50,409 --> 00:18:51,288
因为长期来看

492
00:18:51,288 --> 00:18:51,868
正如你所知

493
00:18:51,868 --> 00:18:54,319
希望企业基本面能主导

494
00:18:54,319 --> 00:18:56,579
这里要谨慎行事

495
00:18:56,579 --> 00:18:59,500
当你开始追逐这些概念股时

496
00:18:59,500 --> 00:19:01,339
或者所有这些情况

497
00:19:01,339 --> 00:19:01,700
对我来说

498
00:19:01,700 --> 00:19:02,559
在今天的视频中

499
00:19:02,559 --> 00:19:04,220
市场里有很多噪音

500
00:19:04,220 --> 00:19:05,559
专注于写作

501
00:19:05,559 --> 00:19:07,380
一切都会好起来的

502
00:19:07,380 --> 00:19:08,759
希望你喜欢这种类型的视频

503
00:19:08,759 --> 00:19:10,319
祝你今天剩下的时间愉快

504
00:19:10,319 --> 00:19:11,759
我们下次再见

505
00:19:11,759 --> 00:19:12,579
再见

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