【Meet Kevin】4.5万亿现金在场外等候：股市底部已现？

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今天唐纳德·特朗普表现得非常激进

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在这段视频中我将解释为什么这实际上可能相当利好

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股市呈现绿色看涨信号

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除此之外还有

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摩根大通刚刚告知我们今年至今的现金余额增长速度

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以比去年更快的速度增长

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刚刚通过抛售股票筹集的资金可能即将回流

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在这段视频中我们将详细解析

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还有一些我最喜欢的股票代码

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我们将进行评估

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检查这些情况

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让我们直接进入正题

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首先昨天显然令人失望

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我们预测有65%的概率特朗普会升级局势

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而他确实这么做了

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不幸的是

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我们认为随着局势升级

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特朗普会透露关于保障霍尔木兹海峡安全的信息

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但我们完全没有得到相关希望

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事实上

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他似乎双手一摊交给他人处理

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这对油市没有立即利好

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包括西德克萨斯中质油和国际原油

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两者都大幅上涨这非常常见

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毕竟如果国际油价

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上涨

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因为没有人控制海峡

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西德克萨斯中质油也会

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同步上涨

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这就是市场规律

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毕竟这是经济规律

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毕竟在短缺时各类替代品都会上涨

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但真正有趣的是阿曼开始制定监测运输计划

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与伊朗协调进行

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而更有趣的是

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阿曼实际上长期与美国保持看涨协作

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并与伊朗合作数十年

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事实上还记得2015年伊朗核协议

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特朗普撕毁的JCPOA协议

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阿曼曾协助促成该协议

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而特朗普现在宣称我们将继续摧毁你们

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他甚至在真相社交平台发布伊朗最大桥梁倒塌

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并直接展示桥梁倒塌视频

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不过这段视频比较模糊

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画面主要充满烟雾

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但能看到桥梁坍塌

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他表示这座桥将永远无法使用

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后续还有更多内容

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伊朗必须尽快达成协议以免为时已晚

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你们也知道

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差不多按老样子做

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问题是特朗普正在加大对伊朗的敌对行动

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嗯

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与此同时我们正收到乐观消息

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伊朗方面表示同意

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好吧

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特朗普真的希望霍尔木兹海峡开通

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我们不妨

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通过与阿曼的协议来开放

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我们可以监控但不限制交通

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或许还能征收部分费用

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比如每桶石油过境收取一美元

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相当于2%的税或类似比例

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根据当前油价水平

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更接近1%的税率

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这笔费用将用于赔偿

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美国和以色列造成的损失

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实际上只是国际石油界多付一美元/桶

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通过霍尔木兹海峡的石油

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你知道的

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霍尔木兹海峡承担全球约20%的供应

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可能增加20美分

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嗯

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你知道的

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基本上就是

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或者这美元的20%会增加全球油价成本

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其实还挺乐观的

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如果海峡真的开通

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油价应该会下降

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我不认为油价会暴跌回之前水平

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维持在50到60美元高位

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事实上

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而我们早前在阿尔法报告中提到

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今早的阿尔法报告中

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我们需要为可能的市场做好准备

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承受更高的油价

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可能持续整年

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此前我们经历了2023和2024年的油价飙升

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但持续时间很短

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可能两到三周

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现在可能面临类似2022年的油价冲击

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油价长期保持在90美元以上

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整个2022年

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战争始于今年二月

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直到感恩节前油价一直超90美元

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确实如此

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是的

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2022年感恩节时涨至85美元

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整整九个月的高油价期

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这段时间油价居高不下

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这将不幸抑制部分旅行消费需求

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驾驶

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飞行

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随便吧

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或者甚至只是塑料制品成本上涨

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或者

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呃

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你知道的

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将零部件融入商品和服务

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否则实际上大部分都基于

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大量能源价格最终会传导至核心通胀

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这太糟糕了

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但好消息是正在制定计划开放海峡

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这是特朗普停止轰炸伊朗的条件

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伊朗

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实际上不需要美伊达成协议

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如果霍尔木兹海峡开放顺利

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所以我认为这是利好消息

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尽管特朗普的言论

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现在转为看空

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阿曼

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顺便说一下，阿曼自

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1833年

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因此他们被视为中东的瑞士

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他们非常厌恶军事侵略

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他们崇尚中立

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这确实是个好消息而且

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他们正好位于霍尔木兹海峡沿岸

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你可能不太清楚具体位置

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所以我们先快速看一下

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呃

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在我展示时

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请你也注意

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目前英国正在举办会议，五国将参加会议

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不包括美国，讨论开放霍尔木兹海峡

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在特朗普行动结束后

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这里就是阿曼地区

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直接位于海峡沿岸

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这里是伊朗、阿曼和

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总之

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这让你对这里有个大致了解

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迪拜与阿曼部分区域交汇

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类似阿拉斯加

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你知道的

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这像加拿大

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这是阿拉斯加部分

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这像

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呃

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连续的48个州

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不过总之这能让你了解此处海峡

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这个小技巧来自阿曼

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呃，总之

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呃

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三国五国正在英国开会

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为了确定如何确保海峡的通行与安全

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战争结束后

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可能会开始缓和

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因为最终会形成一个积极的联盟

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包括阿曼和伊朗

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最终开通了海峡

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然后特朗普说好吧

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我们已经摧毁了他们的核设施

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我们消灭了他们的弹道导弹计划

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我们摧毁了他们的海军

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我们摧毁了他们的空军

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我们撤走了

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然后我们将监控局势

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随后空袭停止，海峡重新开放

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局势变得相当乐观

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这可能引出JP摩根提到的内容

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这就是战略层面

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这就是我们可以讨论的

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呃

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股市潜在看涨预测

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所以JP摩根

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开始质疑

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嘿

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你知道吗

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散户投资者通常主导ETF资金流动

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近期却减少了逢低吸纳的行为

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他们最终得出结论

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呃

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我们并不这么认为

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因为你只看到极少数几天

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比如杠杆ETF仅有一次出现资金流出

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所以我在这里做了些笔记

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当我阅读时

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散户可能仍在逢低买入

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散户喜欢红盘并逢低吸纳

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逢低买入成瘾，我理解

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你知道的

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逢低买入先生

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非常有趣的是

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今早的阿尔法报告中

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这不是推销

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现在也没有销售

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我只是告诉你

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今早的阿尔法报告中

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我提到的内容是因为连续两天阴跌

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我大部分的交易

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阿尔法只是人类心理

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结合技术趋势和基本面

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将它们全部融合

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这就是我们早上讨论的内容

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以及今早盘前制定的交易计划

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我设置了提醒

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我们可能不会大幅下跌

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事实上在队列中

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我们可能直接上涨至577

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然后我们需要观察拒绝和突破

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我之所以怀疑今天会向上突破队列

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然后突破一千

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是因为人们可能因错失约5%的涨幅而感到沮丧

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纳斯达克100在前两日上涨了五个百分点

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又是一个大幅下跌的交易日

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市场开盘下跌一点

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九个百分点的回落可能引发抄底

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问题在于这种抄底行为通常在午餐时间消退

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随着人们开始获利了结

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所以现在我们正看到这种情况

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你会看到典型的尾盘回落

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但这更多是短期行为

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我认为更重要的是目前观察到的

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散户并未出现恐慌性抛售

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所以我在这里写道

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这表明ETF杠杆买入

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这表明

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哦

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唐纳德·特朗普解雇帕姆·邦迪

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是的

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嗯

232
00:09:02,960 --> 00:09:04,480
我们都看到了迹象

233
00:09:04,480 --> 00:09:07,000
不过这只是最新新闻

234
00:09:07,000 --> 00:09:08,259
我正在十点零一分拍摄

235
00:09:08,259 --> 00:09:09,000
不过

236
00:09:09,000 --> 00:09:09,460
嗯

237
00:09:09,460 --> 00:09:12,379
这表明散户尚未恐慌抛售

238
00:09:12,379 --> 00:09:15,179
这不是反向信号或巴菲特风格

239
00:09:15,179 --> 00:09:15,840
这不是买入信号

240
00:09:15,840 --> 00:09:17,039
并不强烈

241
00:09:17,039 --> 00:09:17,620
天啊

242
00:09:17,620 --> 00:09:18,480
街道上血流成河

243
00:09:18,480 --> 00:09:19,580
所有人都在恐慌

244
00:09:19,580 --> 00:09:20,360
这真是

245
00:09:20,360 --> 00:09:24,659
这可能是数十年来最佳买入时机

246
00:09:24,659 --> 00:09:29,799
这实际上在暗示短期底部已形成

247
00:09:29,799 --> 00:09:32,179
由散户建立的支撑位

248
00:09:32,179 --> 00:09:33,440
继续逢低买入

249
00:09:33,440 --> 00:09:35,600
我们需要适应舒适的油价

250
00:09:35,600 --> 00:09:37,039
暂时保持高位

251
00:09:37,039 --> 00:09:39,700
这将对股市造成冲击

252
00:09:39,700 --> 00:09:40,179
呃

253
00:09:40,179 --> 00:09:44,029
我们将具体讨论应考虑哪些类型的股票

254
00:09:44,029 --> 00:09:46,710
这些可能更能抵御油价波动

255
00:09:46,710 --> 00:09:50,490
然后他们提到要提醒杠杆风险

256
00:09:50,490 --> 00:09:52,110
ETF每日收盘后重新平衡

257
00:09:52,110 --> 00:09:57,940
但结论是机构在过去一个月可能在抛售

258
00:09:57,940 --> 00:10:07,230
这暗示机构可能持有约4.5万亿美元现金

259
00:10:07,230 --> 00:10:08,370
这是一笔巨额资金

260
00:10:08,370 --> 00:10:09,570
在我看来

261
00:10:09,570 --> 00:10:14,169
即使其中一小部分投入市场

262
00:10:14,809 --> 00:10:16,230
随着战争

263
00:10:16,230 --> 00:10:17,289
逐渐平息

264
00:10:17,289 --> 00:10:17,970
唐纳德·特朗普

265
00:10:17,970 --> 00:10:19,789
采取更激进的行动

266
00:10:19,789 --> 00:10:22,200
随后撤回部分举措

267
00:10:22,200 --> 00:10:27,970
希望各国协调解除封锁

268
00:10:27,970 --> 00:10:30,009
包括亚洲国家参与其中

269
00:10:30,009 --> 00:10:30,610
呃

270
00:10:30,610 --> 00:10:36,440
我认为我们能真正摆脱当前困境

271
00:10:36,440 --> 00:10:40,828
这4.5万亿美元资金回流市场

272
00:10:40,828 --> 00:10:44,629
可能表明市场短期已见底

273
00:10:44,629 --> 00:10:47,759
现在有理由保持乐观

274
00:10:47,759 --> 00:10:49,700
在基本牛市框架下

275
00:10:49,700 --> 00:10:51,879
我仍未达到

276
00:10:51,879 --> 00:10:52,340
哦是的

277
00:10:52,340 --> 00:10:54,279
现在就要满仓加杠杆

278
00:10:54,279 --> 00:10:56,399
这是谨慎的乐观

279
00:10:56,399 --> 00:10:58,879
目前指数约在49点

280
00:10:58,879 --> 00:11:00,919
这仍是逢低买入的机会

281
00:11:00,919 --> 00:11:03,740
但只是谨慎的低吸

282
00:11:03,740 --> 00:11:05,399
我在逢低买入

283
00:11:05,399 --> 00:11:06,840
我们在逢低吸纳

284
00:11:06,840 --> 00:11:09,080
适度增加持仓

285
00:11:09,080 --> 00:11:09,759
呃

286
00:11:09,759 --> 00:11:13,080
但需保守操作

287
00:11:13,080 --> 00:11:15,100
并稍后讨论具体标的

288
00:11:15,100 --> 00:11:17,309
我喜欢通过一种方式分散投资

289
00:11:17,309 --> 00:11:18,049
在我看来

290
00:11:18,049 --> 00:11:18,929
这不是推销

291
00:11:18,929 --> 00:11:19,710
人们总是问我

292
00:11:19,710 --> 00:11:19,990
凯文

293
00:11:19,990 --> 00:11:21,230
你在做什么

294
00:11:21,230 --> 00:11:21,549
你知道的

295
00:11:21,549 --> 00:11:22,149
我是House Hack CEO

296
00:11:22,149 --> 00:11:23,029
显然

297
00:11:23,029 --> 00:11:23,549
再次强调

298
00:11:23,549 --> 00:11:24,230
这不是推销

299
00:11:24,230 --> 00:11:26,950
目前房地产领域根本没有投资机会

300
00:11:26,950 --> 00:11:30,379
但在我看来真正存在的三大避险资产

301
00:11:30,379 --> 00:11:32,279
并非传统货币避险工具

302
00:11:32,279 --> 00:11:33,120
是啊

303
00:11:33,120 --> 00:11:34,809
主要是房地产

304
00:11:34,809 --> 00:11:37,039
我稍后会详细解释

305
00:11:37,039 --> 00:11:39,019
提升人工智能技能

306
00:11:39,019 --> 00:11:41,720
同时要思考如何构建

307
00:11:41,720 --> 00:11:44,039
AI工具融入业务

308
00:11:44,039 --> 00:11:45,500
无论是财务咨询

309
00:11:45,500 --> 00:11:46,220
会计服务

310
00:11:46,220 --> 00:11:46,960
作为律师

311
00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:47,980
作为医生

312
00:11:47,980 --> 00:11:49,500
甚至作为承包商

313
00:11:49,500 --> 00:11:53,289
如何利用AI成为更好的自己

314
00:11:53,289 --> 00:11:54,809
我认为这非常重要

315
00:11:54,809 --> 00:11:58,049
如果你能销售行业内所需的工具

316
00:11:58,049 --> 00:11:58,710
那就太好了

317
00:11:58,710 --> 00:11:59,289
我是说

318
00:11:59,289 --> 00:12:03,198
我们正通过AI减少人力需求

319
00:12:03,198 --> 00:12:05,479
招聘更多开发人员构建

320
00:12:05,479 --> 00:12:06,538
AI工具进行销售

321
00:12:06,538 --> 00:12:08,038
比如即将推出的估值AI

322
00:12:08,038 --> 00:12:09,389
然后投资房地产

323
00:12:09,389 --> 00:12:10,750
现在为什么是房地产

324
00:12:10,750 --> 00:12:12,110
还有那些股票代码

325
00:12:12,110 --> 00:12:12,830
我一直在提到

326
00:12:12,830 --> 00:12:13,309
好的

327
00:12:13,309 --> 00:12:16,250
实际上我认为这里提到的Sadibank

328
00:12:16,250 --> 00:12:19,490
感谢发送这些资料的人

329
00:12:19,490 --> 00:12:20,409
这些机构资料

330
00:12:20,409 --> 00:12:21,289
我觉得很有趣

331
00:12:21,289 --> 00:12:23,210
这很有趣

332
00:12:23,210 --> 00:12:25,610
这应该适用于全球房地产

333
00:12:25,610 --> 00:12:27,659
但他们提到欧洲房地产

334
00:12:27,659 --> 00:12:30,980
他们说欧洲房地产股票接近历史低位

335
00:12:30,980 --> 00:12:31,659
在许多情况下

336
00:12:31,659 --> 00:12:33,480
存在潜在买入机会

337
00:12:33,480 --> 00:12:34,139
当美国

338
00:12:34,139 --> 00:12:36,019
与伊朗冲突结束后

339
00:12:36,019 --> 00:12:43,220
租赁市场依然强劲并在经济疲软和信心不足环境中持续改善

340
00:12:43,220 --> 00:12:44,299
冲突前

341
00:12:44,299 --> 00:12:45,220
从历史看

342
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:49,589
重大房地产调整通常出现在长期上涨后

343
00:12:49,589 --> 00:12:50,269
然而

344
00:12:50,269 --> 00:12:55,879
欧洲和英国市场结束了十年下跌

345
00:12:55,879 --> 00:12:59,299
可能中期存在买入机会

346
00:12:59,299 --> 00:13:01,179
我认为同样适用

347
00:13:01,179 --> 00:13:02,399
当然适用于加拿大

348
00:13:02,399 --> 00:13:03,899
在一定程度上也适用于美国

349
00:13:03,899 --> 00:13:04,649
S the u

350
00:13:04,649 --> 00:13:08,289
S在过度建设的市场中经历了多年的下滑

351
00:13:08,289 --> 00:13:09,809
无论是亚利桑那州

352
00:13:09,809 --> 00:13:10,490
奥斯汀

353
00:13:10,490 --> 00:13:11,659
佛罗里达州部分地区

354
00:13:12,059 --> 00:13:16,460
像加州曼哈顿这样的高收入低建设区域

355
00:13:16,460 --> 00:13:20,068
房地产价格表现相当不错

356
00:13:20,068 --> 00:13:21,269
但租赁市场

357
00:13:21,269 --> 00:13:22,229
你知道这确实

358
00:13:22,229 --> 00:13:26,539
过去四到五年都不是房东市场的黄金期

359
00:13:26,539 --> 00:13:27,559
这确实不是

360
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:27,799
你知道的

361
00:13:27,799 --> 00:13:29,320
一个绝佳的房地产市场

362
00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,779
这更像是一个平淡的房地产市场

363
00:13:31,779 --> 00:13:32,919
但在我看来

364
00:13:32,919 --> 00:13:34,379
这创造了什么机会

365
00:13:34,379 --> 00:13:37,320
未来我们将回顾并感叹

366
00:13:37,320 --> 00:13:37,559
哇

367
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:43,440
2022至2032年是房地产投资的黄金窗口

368
00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:45,580
因为人们不愿购买房地产

369
00:13:45,580 --> 00:13:45,879
呃

370
00:13:45,879 --> 00:13:48,328
人们更想出售房地产

371
00:13:48,328 --> 00:13:50,668
现在这些成了对冲工具

372
00:13:50,668 --> 00:13:53,590
至于蜂窝信号

373
00:13:53,590 --> 00:13:55,009
接下来谈谈这些股票代码

374
00:13:55,009 --> 00:13:57,850
最大的蜂窝信号将是裁员率

375
00:13:57,850 --> 00:13:59,549
爆炸的花旗银行

376
00:13:59,549 --> 00:14:02,850
摩根大通提到就业报告略显负面

377
00:14:02,850 --> 00:14:05,230
裁员率略有上升

378
00:14:05,230 --> 00:14:07,190
但仍非常非常低

379
00:14:07,190 --> 00:14:10,460
自11月以来绝对值一直很低

380
00:14:10,460 --> 00:14:16,340
就业报告在某些方面略超预期，部分符合预期

381
00:14:16,340 --> 00:14:18,039
因此并非糟糕的报告

382
00:14:18,039 --> 00:14:19,480
今日挑战者裁员数据

383
00:14:19,480 --> 00:14:21,080
同样温和

384
00:14:21,080 --> 00:14:21,659
优于

385
00:14:21,659 --> 00:14:22,019
呃

386
00:14:22,019 --> 00:14:22,419
你知道的

387
00:14:22,419 --> 00:14:24,929
我们看到的比预期更好

388
00:14:24,929 --> 00:14:27,330
但综合所有数据

389
00:14:27,330 --> 00:14:32,799
我认为有理由谨慎乐观买入

390
00:14:32,799 --> 00:14:33,840
所以我做了的是

391
00:14:33,840 --> 00:14:36,120
在屏幕上展示了这些股票的PEG比率

392
00:14:36,120 --> 00:14:39,009
这些我认为极具潜力的股票

393
00:14:39,009 --> 00:14:42,129
我想对每只股票稍作评论

394
00:14:42,129 --> 00:14:44,789
首先很多人非常看空

395
00:14:44,789 --> 00:14:45,169
呃

396
00:14:45,169 --> 00:14:49,210
人工智能因为它会取代公司需求

397
00:14:49,210 --> 00:14:51,570
比如做账务处理

398
00:14:51,570 --> 00:14:52,929
我实际上认为AI

399
00:14:52,929 --> 00:14:55,950
而Intuit在人工智能领域的做法让

400
00:14:55,950 --> 00:14:56,549
呃

401
00:14:56,549 --> 00:14:58,269
Intuit更具吸引力

402
00:14:58,269 --> 00:15:02,220
而不是更少，因为他们实际上帮你完成了AI部分

403
00:15:02,220 --> 00:15:05,059
并为你整合了AI功能

404
00:15:05,059 --> 00:15:08,578
这使得人们更愿意花钱让他们来做

405
00:15:08,578 --> 00:15:11,399
而不是自己搭建系统试图全部搞定

406
00:15:11,399 --> 00:15:14,259
因为你知道他们的人工智能环节有人类参与

407
00:15:14,259 --> 00:15:16,049
我认为这正是你应该拥有的

408
00:15:16,049 --> 00:15:19,409
所以我现在认为Intuit的折扣简直荒谬

409
00:15:19,409 --> 00:15:21,769
我认为这是一千美元的套利机会

410
00:15:21,769 --> 00:15:22,809
我其实

411
00:15:22,809 --> 00:15:23,330
呃

412
00:15:23,330 --> 00:15:23,889
你知道的

413
00:15:23,889 --> 00:15:26,529
认为NVIDIA的折扣同样非常诱人

414
00:15:26,529 --> 00:15:27,129
所以也是如此

415
00:15:27,129 --> 00:15:29,789
AMD的股价翻倍了

416
00:15:29,789 --> 00:15:31,830
NVIDIA可能值三百美元

417
00:15:31,830 --> 00:15:35,330
这些都是利润率极高的优质公司

418
00:15:35,330 --> 00:15:40,340
我认为这些公司将继续获得资金流入

419
00:15:40,340 --> 00:15:41,399
台积电的

420
00:15:41,399 --> 00:15:41,860
你知道的

421
00:15:41,860 --> 00:15:44,099
先进制造在未来

422
00:15:44,099 --> 00:15:44,578
你知道的

423
00:15:44,578 --> 00:15:44,958
两年内供不应求

424
00:15:44,958 --> 00:15:46,458
我认为到2028年

425
00:15:46,458 --> 00:15:49,360
芯片行业尚未出现放缓迹象

426
00:15:49,360 --> 00:15:49,899
然而

427
00:15:49,899 --> 00:15:53,539
我们看到NVIDIA和AMD缺乏上涨动力

428
00:15:53,539 --> 00:15:55,940
这是因为它们经历了大幅上涨

429
00:15:55,940 --> 00:15:58,220
而缺乏持续动力

430
00:15:58,220 --> 00:16:01,730
你可能需要等待较长时间才能看到这些股票大幅上涨

431
00:16:01,730 --> 00:16:06,429
这也是为什么我认为还有其他机会，比如Axon

432
00:16:06,429 --> 00:16:09,629
这本质上是执法机构的人工智能解决方案

433
00:16:09,629 --> 00:16:10,809
执法机构

434
00:16:10,809 --> 00:16:13,690
他们不会自行开发人工智能平台

435
00:16:13,690 --> 00:16:15,769
会使用Axon这样的公司来

436
00:16:15,769 --> 00:16:16,250
提供AI技术

437
00:16:16,250 --> 00:16:18,409
集成到报告系统中

438
00:16:18,409 --> 00:16:19,850
结合体感摄像头

439
00:16:19,850 --> 00:16:21,009
音频记录

440
00:16:21,009 --> 00:16:23,470
或者甚至

441
00:16:23,470 --> 00:16:24,070
你知道的

442
00:16:24,070 --> 00:16:25,710
反无人机技术

443
00:16:25,710 --> 00:16:27,590
在伊朗威胁事件后

444
00:16:27,590 --> 00:16:29,639
我惊讶这支股票表现没更好

445
00:16:29,639 --> 00:16:32,120
毕竟他们收购了Dedrone公司

446
00:16:32,120 --> 00:16:36,029
这家公司帮助执法机构击落敌对无人机

447
00:16:36,029 --> 00:16:37,210
嗯

448
00:16:37,210 --> 00:16:37,909
你知道的

449
00:16:37,909 --> 00:16:40,090
伊朗对加州海岸的威胁

450
00:16:40,090 --> 00:16:41,470
人们应该会对此多加注意

451
00:16:41,470 --> 00:16:43,399
但我认为大家还没真正意识到

452
00:16:43,399 --> 00:16:46,359
因为这些威胁可能只是空谈

453
00:16:46,359 --> 00:16:47,379
但它们终将到来

454
00:16:47,379 --> 00:16:50,458
尤其是光纤无人机变得越来越可怕且廉价

455
00:16:50,458 --> 00:16:51,899
那个绑炸弹的装置

456
00:16:51,899 --> 00:16:52,719
这太疯狂了

457
00:16:52,719 --> 00:16:57,549
Ui Path可能是个高风险赌注

458
00:16:57,549 --> 00:17:00,980
毕竟这只股票暴跌了90%

459
00:17:00,980 --> 00:17:02,779
它正在底部苦苦挣扎

460
00:17:02,779 --> 00:17:04,630
像海底的锚一样

461
00:17:04,630 --> 00:17:06,730
但他们在公布财报

462
00:17:06,730 --> 00:17:09,720
正在改善财务状况

463
00:17:09,720 --> 00:17:15,449
从高价客户赚更多钱，低价客户赚更少

464
00:17:15,449 --> 00:17:16,088
你知道的

465
00:17:16,088 --> 00:17:17,108
低收入客户

466
00:17:17,108 --> 00:17:19,339
这正是我们想要的

467
00:17:19,339 --> 00:17:24,720
公司专注于高价值客户并因此增长

468
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:27,859
过去几年他们的财务状况在萎缩

469
00:17:27,859 --> 00:17:32,000
但最近六个月已彻底扭转

470
00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:35,000
华尔街很快就会看到这一点

471
00:17:35,000 --> 00:17:37,440
当然对于更安全的选择

472
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:38,559
Alphabet微软

473
00:17:38,559 --> 00:17:42,279
这些股票市盈率都很低

474
00:17:42,279 --> 00:17:44,950
这些都可能支撑2.6倍估值

475
00:17:44,950 --> 00:17:50,279
这对Ui Path和微软意味着翻倍可能

476
00:17:50,279 --> 00:17:51,079
稍低一些

477
00:17:51,079 --> 00:17:51,359
我说

478
00:17:51,359 --> 00:17:53,720
Alphabet可能有70%的上涨空间

479
00:17:53,720 --> 00:17:54,970
随口一说

480
00:17:54,970 --> 00:17:57,730
但这些都是绝佳机会

481
00:17:57,730 --> 00:17:58,329
我认为

482
00:17:58,329 --> 00:18:00,150
现在逢低买入是合理的

483
00:18:00,150 --> 00:18:01,859
嗯啊现在

484
00:18:01,859 --> 00:18:03,059
如果你在寻找投资标的

485
00:18:03,059 --> 00:18:04,710
所以我建议关注这些

486
00:18:04,710 --> 00:18:05,029
你知道的

487
00:18:05,029 --> 00:18:08,529
我们在课程直播中定期做基本面分析

488
00:18:08,529 --> 00:18:11,950
欢迎查看这些基本面的深入分析

489
00:18:11,950 --> 00:18:12,869
如果你加入课程

490
00:18:12,869 --> 00:18:15,349
总之这是

491
00:18:15,349 --> 00:18:16,990
这就是我对今天的看法

492
00:18:16,990 --> 00:18:18,089
我觉得这

493
00:18:18,089 --> 00:18:19,329
相对乐观

494
00:18:19,329 --> 00:18:22,069
我喜欢听到关于阿曼局势的消息

495
00:18:22,069 --> 00:18:27,940
尤其是他们长期调解美伊纠纷的声誉

496
00:18:27,940 --> 00:18:34,180
我认为摩根大通的数据在帮我们

497
00:18:34,180 --> 00:18:36,680
显示一季度市场已筑底

498
00:18:36,680 --> 00:18:39,298
现在可能有上涨空间

499
00:18:39,298 --> 00:18:39,818
你知道吗

500
00:18:39,818 --> 00:18:43,098
显然，潜在的负面影响将是美国人员伤亡

501
00:18:43,098 --> 00:18:46,569
这将导致唐纳德·特朗普更加歇斯底里，并引发长期冲突

502
00:18:46,569 --> 00:18:46,869
呃

503
00:18:46,869 --> 00:18:48,109
或持续冲突

504
00:18:48,109 --> 00:18:52,880
这确实是一个重大风险因素

505
00:18:52,880 --> 00:18:55,700
尤其是如果我们最终部署地面部队的话

506
00:18:55,700 --> 00:18:57,150
希望我们不会这样做

507
00:18:57,150 --> 00:19:00,369
听起来唐纳德·特朗普坚信所谓

508
00:19:00,369 --> 00:19:02,529
用炸弹把伊朗送回石器时代

509
00:19:02,529 --> 00:19:04,410
然后我们就能一击即中

510
00:19:04,410 --> 00:19:06,159
读完就像翻书一样继续前进

511
00:19:06,159 --> 00:19:07,259
我们拭目以待

512
00:19:07,259 --> 00:19:08,798
但请记住

513
00:19:08,798 --> 00:19:12,240
油价可能会长期维持高位

514
00:19:12,240 --> 00:19:13,519
这将成为新的

515
00:19:13,519 --> 00:19:14,559
长期高位

516
00:19:14,559 --> 00:19:16,839
随着油价长期维持高位

517
00:19:18,160 --> 00:19:19,279
不幸的是

518
00:19:19,429 --> 00:19:19,949
呃

519
00:19:19,949 --> 00:19:22,528
某些消费类股票将承受更大冲击

520
00:19:22,528 --> 00:19:24,568
无论是航空公司还是

521
00:19:24,568 --> 00:19:25,048
呃

522
00:19:25,048 --> 00:19:25,548
呃

523
00:19:26,809 --> 00:19:28,029
这对就业构成风险

524
00:19:28,029 --> 00:19:30,549
鉴于零售和旅游是主要

525
00:19:30,549 --> 00:19:31,269
你知道的

526
00:19:31,269 --> 00:19:33,730
就业增长来源，情况并不理想

527
00:19:33,730 --> 00:19:37,029
进入夏季前油价上涨

528
00:19:37,029 --> 00:19:37,549
你可能会说

529
00:19:37,549 --> 00:19:37,710
哦

530
00:19:37,710 --> 00:19:37,829
但

531
00:19:37,829 --> 00:19:38,869
在2022年

532
00:19:38,869 --> 00:19:39,309
你知道的

533
00:19:39,309 --> 00:19:42,269
正如我们之前讨论的，油价曾持续九个月处于高位

534
00:19:42,269 --> 00:19:44,789
但2022年人们有更多的钱

535
00:19:44,789 --> 00:19:46,269
2022年是

536
00:19:46,269 --> 00:19:46,750
你知道的

537
00:19:46,750 --> 00:19:48,109
我们走出新冠后的首个完整年份

538
00:19:48,109 --> 00:19:48,569
刺激政策

539
00:19:48,569 --> 00:19:52,469
而银行账户余额远比现在丰厚

540
00:19:54,148 --> 00:19:54,969
总体而言

541
00:19:54,969 --> 00:19:55,749
当然

542
00:19:55,749 --> 00:19:56,868
所以呃

543
00:19:56,868 --> 00:19:58,799
我建议保持谨慎

544
00:19:58,799 --> 00:20:00,259
消费板块

545
00:20:00,259 --> 00:20:01,200
嗯

546
00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:01,440
你知道的

547
00:20:01,440 --> 00:20:03,559
显然很多人仍在关注能源

548
00:20:03,559 --> 00:20:04,640
作为一场表演

549
00:20:04,640 --> 00:20:05,339
呃

550
00:20:05,339 --> 00:20:07,890
目前这样是合理的

551
00:20:07,890 --> 00:20:11,609
但随着时间推移这可能变得不那么 desirable

552
00:20:11,609 --> 00:20:12,910
随着这场冲突逐渐淡化

553
00:20:12,910 --> 00:20:16,170
希望它确实如此

554
00:20:16,170 --> 00:20:16,630
总之

555
00:20:16,630 --> 00:20:18,230
那是我自己唾液打的结

556
00:20:18,230 --> 00:20:19,509
这样视频就到这里了

557
00:20:19,509 --> 00:20:20,289
我们下次再见

558
00:20:20,289 --> 00:20:21,069
再见

559
00:20:21,069 --> 00:20:21,529
祝你好运

560
00:20:21,529 --> 00:20:22,509
为什么不宣传一下

561
00:20:22,509 --> 00:20:23,710
你在这里告诉我们的这些事

562
00:20:23,710 --> 00:20:25,490
我觉得没人知道这件事

563
00:20:25,490 --> 00:20:27,680
我们试试小范围宣传看看效果

564
00:20:27,680 --> 00:20:28,720
恭喜兄弟

565
00:20:28,720 --> 00:20:29,480
你已经做了这么多

566
00:20:29,480 --> 00:20:30,319
大家都喜欢你

567
00:20:30,319 --> 00:20:31,240
大家都仰慕你

568
00:20:31,240 --> 00:20:32,299
就是凯文·帕弗拉特

569
00:20:32,299 --> 00:20:34,079
金融分析师兼 YouTuber

570
00:20:34,079 --> 00:20:34,720
认识一下凯文

571
00:20:34,720 --> 00:20:36,140
很高兴听到你的观点

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