敢为天下后 要为天下先

1
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这个时代很有意思啊

2
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啊你说对普通人好吧

3
00:00:03,200 --> 00:00:05,540
那普通人呢根本就摸不到AI的门

4
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而99%的人呢只能用AI简单的问答

5
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根本就是没办法去产生现金流

6
00:00:11,970 --> 00:00:13,429
但是你说不好吧

7
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你看这个me max创始人上市才一年的时间啊

8
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身价破千亿了

9
00:00:18,559 --> 00:00:19,879
这公司总共成立啊

10
00:00:19,879 --> 00:00:22,719
我看了看21年成立到现在才5年不到

11
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各位什么概念啊

12
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5年的时间啊

13
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一个普通人创立一家公司

14
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身价过千亿

15
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实际上这家公司你说有泡沫吗

16
00:00:29,839 --> 00:00:30,640
肯定有是吧

17
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整个销售额的话才几十个亿啊

18
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流通股的话才200%分之三

19
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那市值的话3800个亿啊

20
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已经超过他老东家了

21
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我看那个创始人呢之前是在百度工作啊

22
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但是呢百度没留住他

23
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他出来之后呢呵很快就超过老东家的整体市值

24
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所以你看这个时代说明什么呢

25
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原来的我们讲的那些东西啊

26
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比如说啊老段今天讲的敢为天

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然后后中争先

28
00:00:52,640 --> 00:00:54,399
但是你发现现在这个时代

29
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你赶回天安货根本走不通了

30
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为什么呢

31
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因为他这个行业时间段很窄啊

32
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赚钱的时间非到没些

33
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你看MINMAX

34
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包括质谱

35
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他们做的这个业务其实就很短期

36
00:01:05,129 --> 00:01:06,929
它包括啊寒武纪啊

37
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包括这些啊

38
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所谓的芯片半导体公司也是一样的

39
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它很短期就你抓住啊

40
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人工智能爆发的节点啊

41
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你就上去了

42
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你抓不住

43
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你再也上不去了

44
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因为这个东西周期都很长啊

45
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就像这个做存储一样的啊

46
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那可能一赚钱一年赚10年的

47
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可能未来等你冲进来的时候

48
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10年不赚钱

49
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为什么呢

50
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因为那个行业它变化很快

51
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但你也谁也不知道他明天会发生什么

52
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明天有什么产品会替代它

53
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你只有当下你做好啊

54
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你才可能说哎你你一旦遇到危机啊

55
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你有10年的现金流来维持的

56
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所以这个时机呢你看普通人应该怎么做呢

57
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第一个呢就是你必须研究新东西

58
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而且呢你必须用新东西啊

59
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虽然说可能有风险

60
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但是你不用

61
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你可能连机会都没了

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你连入门的当然还入门门槛

63
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入门券都没了

64
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那第二个呢就是你要学会用资本啊

65
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过去的时候我们讲啊

66
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就是啊一定要闷声发财啊是吧

67
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一定要低调啊

68
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你现在如果你不用资本

69
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在这个短期的时间段里面

70
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你抓不住这个机会的话

71
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你未来你基本上就没有没有机会入门了

72
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你看那些美国的这些杀手公司

73
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就是啊虽然刹车今年差不多打了个三折五折

74
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但是问题是人家只要是啊

75
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在这个赛道上就有机会

76
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你看那个C口C口这家公司呢

77
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昨天我们讲了很多次啊

78
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就上市的时候我们分享过啊

79
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因为他是这个当时这个讲的这个啊

80
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嗯稳定币第一股嘛是吧

81
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当时上市之后也翻了差不多有七八倍

82
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那很快的跌下来了啊

83
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跌到五六十的时候啊

84
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我们讲价公司的价值还是非常大的

85
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因为因为稳定币的交易量呢

86
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早就超过了传统的金融啊

87
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比如说微沙啊

88
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包括这个啊

89
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玛斯卡早就超过他们了

90
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所以当时我们讲这个逻辑

91
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那就是公式有价值

92
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股价波动很大

93
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但是呢当他啊比如说你年赚五个亿啊

94
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市盈率呢只有啊二三十倍的时候

95
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其实还是严重低估的

96
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因为它的交易量确确实实超过了传统的货币

97
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所以呢你看当时我们分享这些公司

98
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包括我们做这个整个哈公司的故事的时候

99
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我们是根据整个逻辑来的啊

100
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就是新事物会不会代替老事务

101
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那新事物什么时候代替新事物

102
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哪家公司是能在这个里面收益最大的

103
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这是我们的一个逻辑对吧

104
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像老师傅呢做配置

105
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各位老配老事物

106
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无论是这些啊

107
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能源啊

108
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公共C呀

109
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你要做配置

110
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这个配置是干嘛的呢

111
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当这个新事物啊严重高估的时候对吧

112
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甚至回撤的时候

113
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你的整个资产配置的波动很小对吧

114
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但是呢当这个新新事物呢暴涨的时候

115
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因为你在这个新事物里面

116
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所以你能抓住这波浪潮

117
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所以这就是今天这个时代呢

118
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你要啊学一些新东西

119
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但是呢你也不要说完全是说哈奥义赌

120
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因为你的心态受不了啊

121
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我们群里有个兄弟呢

122
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MYSQL当时是一百二一百三

123
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当时买了几千万美金的

124
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那当回到五六十的时候

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他他问我

126
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嘿嘿强哥怎么搞我

127
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你肯定拿住呀

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你现在你肯定拿住了

129
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对不对

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我们也不知道这个股价会跌到什么程度对吧

131
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因为你没法预测

132
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但是这个事物肯定是在的

133
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他交易量肯定在的

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趋势肯定在的

135
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刚刚回来哈

136
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如果他要是在这个低点割了仓

137
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是压损失上千万美金啊

138
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这个就是我给大家讲哈

139
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就是富贵险中求

140
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也在险中丢

141
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你想强出富贵

142
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但如果你又不想冒风险的话呢

143
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那你只能做好整体资产配置对

144
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就像我经常讲

145
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我说你要有AI仓位哈

146
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叫进攻组合吗

147
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啊你也有这个防守仓位哈

148
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能源公共事业组合

149
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你还有消费仓位穿越女通组合

150
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这个就是巴菲特的逻辑对原

151
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为这个时代呢你只有这么做啊

152
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你才能做到可进可退哈

153
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进可攻退可守

154
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如果单纯的单一思维说啊

155
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我全力进攻

156
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我不留任何后路

157
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你会出现什么问题呢

158
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就这个公式可能很好像FIGMA像CKO啊

159
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啊像很多很多这些啊非常有价值的

160
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非常有经费的公司

161
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但它股价两折的时候

162
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你怎么办对吧

163
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比如你可能在五折的时候啊

164
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买了1000万

165
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但是又掉了两折

166
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结果呢嘿你手下你只剩下这个400万300万了

167
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你怎么办呢

168
00:04:58,088 --> 00:04:59,769
你可能再熬一个月

169
00:04:59,769 --> 00:05:00,730
你又能回到1000万

170
00:05:00,730 --> 00:05:03,100
但是你可能死在了黎明前的黑暗

171
00:05:03,100 --> 00:05:04,399
这个就是这个时代的配置

172
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你盯着股价没有用的

173
00:05:05,759 --> 00:05:07,180
你只有盯着整体啊

174
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你看整体看全局就是整体打法

175
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所以这个就是我经常给群里兄弟讲

176
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我说这个时代感就不谋全局

177
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不足以谋一域

178
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你不要去啊

179
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跟着单一思路走啊

180
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你无论是今年的石油

181
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你可以看一下啊

182
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石油波动有多大

183
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川普一个人就可以决定石油每天上下跌幅

184
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二三十%

185
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比如说哎昨天哈可能原油可能到一百一百二了

186
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今天到80了

187
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对这个原油的价格啊

188
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这个比这个股市波动还大

189
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什么概念啊

190
00:05:34,819 --> 00:05:38,129
你说中间那些那些参与石油环节的那些人

191
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怎么办了

192
00:05:38,610 --> 00:05:40,470
那炼油的那那化工类怎么办呀

193
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他买还是不买

194
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他干还是不干

195
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所以它整个是中国整个这个全球的生产经济呢

196
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就随着这个战争啊

197
00:05:46,930 --> 00:05:48,279
随着一个人的这种意志啊

198
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产生了巨大的影响

199
00:05:49,519 --> 00:05:52,079
所以你说这个战争对我们个人有没有影响

200
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有影响很大

201
00:05:52,959 --> 00:05:53,839
我们要不要关注

202
00:05:53,839 --> 00:05:54,579
必须要关注

203
00:05:54,579 --> 00:05:55,879
那你关注的时候怎么办

204
00:05:55,879 --> 00:05:57,990
你你要做整体的配置对吧

205
00:05:57,990 --> 00:06:00,870
你看我也是中国海洋税务讲了两年对吧

206
00:06:00,870 --> 00:06:02,129
西方水友讲了一两年

207
00:06:02,129 --> 00:06:03,550
因为你有这个配置

208
00:06:03,550 --> 00:06:06,339
然后呢当这个战争爆发的时候

209
00:06:06,339 --> 00:06:07,220
原油涨的时候

210
00:06:07,220 --> 00:06:11,139
你的仓位不至于因为是预期不好啊

211
00:06:11,139 --> 00:06:12,540
因为科技啊消费低啊

212
00:06:12,540 --> 00:06:14,269
你的你的盘子损失太大

213
00:06:14,269 --> 00:06:16,870
而且呢当这个行情不好的时候啊

214
00:06:16,870 --> 00:06:17,670
你有这个石油呢

215
00:06:17,670 --> 00:06:19,009
你还可以试股息对吧

216
00:06:19,009 --> 00:06:21,569
因为石油总体来讲的话股息率还是很高的

217
00:06:21,569 --> 00:06:22,449
因为它赚钱嘛

218
00:06:22,449 --> 00:06:24,110
而且呢这个东西也是刚需嘛

219
00:06:24,110 --> 00:06:26,199
而且呢你发现一个问题没有啊

220
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就是今天这个时代呢

221
00:06:27,199 --> 00:06:28,740
如果说你不做全球配置

222
00:06:28,740 --> 00:06:29,879
你只做单一市场

223
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你也问题很大

224
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你看这两年啊

225
00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:32,680
日本韩国啊

226
00:06:32,680 --> 00:06:36,470
因为这个美国的这个啊下游嘛啊加工嘛

227
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无论是半导体啊啊芯片啊

228
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存储啊

229
00:06:39,110 --> 00:06:39,889
收益很大

230
00:06:39,889 --> 00:06:41,250
然后呢股价暴涨

231
00:06:41,250 --> 00:06:42,329
但是问题来了

232
00:06:42,329 --> 00:06:45,569
如果你单独配一个韩国和日本市场

233
00:06:45,569 --> 00:06:50,259
就这两天这个原油原油危机一天涨幅百二三十

234
00:06:50,259 --> 00:06:51,459
一天跌幅百二三十

235
00:06:51,459 --> 00:06:52,709
各位你也受不了

236
00:06:52,709 --> 00:06:54,350
所以呢我们今天啊

237
00:06:54,350 --> 00:06:57,149
你如果说已经是哈财富相当了相当多了

238
00:06:57,149 --> 00:06:59,288
如果你还是用单一的打法呢

239
00:06:59,288 --> 00:07:01,088
你这个人啊就不健康啊

240
00:07:01,088 --> 00:07:03,288
就像一个啊人的不同年龄阶段啊

241
00:07:03,288 --> 00:07:04,168
比如你三四十岁

242
00:07:04,168 --> 00:07:05,339
二三十岁啊

243
00:07:05,339 --> 00:07:07,620
十几岁每个阶段这个身体状况不一样

244
00:07:07,620 --> 00:07:08,459
比你十几20岁

245
00:07:08,459 --> 00:07:09,060
你摔一下

246
00:07:09,060 --> 00:07:10,180
摔一跤没事

247
00:07:10,180 --> 00:07:11,149
第二天活蹦乱跳

248
00:07:11,149 --> 00:07:12,189
24岁啊

249
00:07:12,189 --> 00:07:12,870
摔一下啊

250
00:07:12,870 --> 00:07:14,829
可能要休息个哈

251
00:07:14,829 --> 00:07:15,490
好几天

252
00:07:15,490 --> 00:07:17,730
你四五十岁摔一跤就完了

253
00:07:17,730 --> 00:07:18,509
一星期起不来

254
00:07:18,509 --> 00:07:19,689
要七八岁摔一跤

255
00:07:19,689 --> 00:07:20,790
有可能一命呜呼了

256
00:07:20,790 --> 00:07:22,230
所以呢你在不同年龄

257
00:07:22,230 --> 00:07:25,629
你的整个配置的逻辑一定是进口工程车启动

258
00:07:25,629 --> 00:07:26,970
特别是到了中年以后啊

259
00:07:26,970 --> 00:07:28,009
当你有家啊

260
00:07:28,009 --> 00:07:28,810
有孩子啊

261
00:07:28,810 --> 00:07:30,300
整个家庭需要稳定的时候

262
00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:33,519
你这时候想的是一定不是说我要赚多少快钱

263
00:07:33,519 --> 00:07:35,259
而是说怎么样不要亏钱

264
00:07:35,259 --> 00:07:36,980
你一定没想到我今年是翻倍啊

265
00:07:36,980 --> 00:07:37,980
还是两倍三倍啊

266
00:07:37,980 --> 00:07:39,639
而且很多说我能不能做到八倍

267
00:07:39,639 --> 00:07:40,730
每年20%

268
00:07:40,730 --> 00:07:42,629
连续五六十年对吧

269
00:07:42,629 --> 00:07:43,750
这才是核心问题

270
00:07:43,750 --> 00:07:47,319
你今天哪怕你有1000万年20%哈

271
00:07:47,319 --> 00:07:48,720
60年的结果是什么

272
00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:50,560
5万倍5万倍什么概念

273
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:50,920
兄弟们

274
00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:52,319
你自己想一下啊

275
00:07:52,319 --> 00:07:53,319
1万块钱

276
00:07:53,319 --> 00:07:54,579
5万倍是五个亿

277
00:07:54,579 --> 00:07:55,699
1000万呢

278
00:07:55,699 --> 00:07:56,620
5000个亿啊

279
00:07:56,620 --> 00:07:57,920
各位什么概念呀

280
00:07:57,920 --> 00:08:00,439
巴菲特从60年代投资到现在

281
00:08:00,439 --> 00:08:01,879
整整翻了6万倍啊

282
00:08:01,879 --> 00:08:03,879
这就是富力的魅力魅力啊

283
00:08:03,879 --> 00:08:04,759
所以实际上呢

284
00:08:04,759 --> 00:08:07,439
每一个人呢应该把心态放平和对吧

285
00:08:07,439 --> 00:08:09,079
你把你的年龄

286
00:08:09,079 --> 00:08:09,839
你的性格

287
00:08:09,839 --> 00:08:10,699
你的资产

288
00:08:10,699 --> 00:08:12,459
包括今天的这个市场

289
00:08:12,459 --> 00:08:13,379
你都看明白

290
00:08:13,379 --> 00:08:16,029
你做一个进口进可攻退可守的组合

291
00:08:16,029 --> 00:08:17,949
然后不管市场怎么波动哈

292
00:08:17,949 --> 00:08:20,209
你可以像我一样每天悠闲地散散步

293
00:08:20,209 --> 00:08:21,360
哈哈哼

294
00:08:21,360 --> 00:08:23,040
享受一下生活就可以了

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