美股：两人跳槽，五大股全跌，怎么搞的？【2026-06-22】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年6月22号星期一

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跌幅0.37%

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日线图已经四连阴线

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小幅横盘四天了

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指数偏离长期均线有一定的距离

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说明乖离率又高了

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标普现在是7472点

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年限是5189点

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相差2000多点

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指数离年限越远

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越存在技术性回调的空间

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跌幅1.32%

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收盘2万6166点啊

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数字上挺顺的

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最近几天那只算是横盘整理

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在选择方向当中

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原来的趋势是上涨的

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整理后大概也是上涨的

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只是和标普一样

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指数离年限的距离超过历史均值

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有一种要均值回归的感觉

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道琼斯指数今天倒是上涨了148点

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收盘5万1712点

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是史上最高

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当我们认为只有存储股在上涨时

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其实道指那些传统的家伙整体也是涨幅不错

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在刚刚过去的周末

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万斯还是去了瑞士

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和伊朗的议长卡利巴夫进行了谈判

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美国和伊朗谈得怎么样了呢

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看美国这边的新闻是利好比较多

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万斯认为谈判取得了非常好的成果

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其中一条就是

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德黑兰已经同意邀请

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国际原子能机构的核查人员再次访问伊朗

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但伊朗否认做出了任何新的承诺

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伊朗的媒体报道称

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在长达18个小时的会谈中

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德黑兰方面并没有就核问题进行谈判

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也没有接受任何新的约束

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任何对核设施的访问以及浓缩铀库存的安排

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都将取决于每一谅解备忘录中规定的

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60天谈判达成的最终协议

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万斯介绍了解冻伊朗资产的计划

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并且美国将给伊朗60天时间

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豁免石油销售禁令

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这一豁免使得伊朗能够在8月21号之前

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向包括美国在内的几乎所有国家出售石油

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长期以来美国制裁伊朗

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伊朗的油是不能正常销售的

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那么这同样也就增加了国际石油的供给

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降低了油价

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霍尔木兹海峡目前的通航情况较为复杂和反复

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虽然伊朗在周末时指责以色列袭击黎巴嫩为由

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宣布关闭海峡

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但是从实时海峡通航数据来看

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过去24小时有12艘船通过

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达到了战前20%的水平

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这显示海峡没有完全封锁

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甚至通航的船只数量还提高了

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受和平谈判前景影响

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跌到了77美元一线

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因为之前形成了较为可靠的多重顶

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并且确认破位

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根据技术形态的对称跌幅来测算

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油价可能会跌到70

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所以上半年的通胀威胁可能暂时缓解

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谷歌爆出一个消息

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就是有几个出名的科学家跳槽了

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都是核心的AI人才

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其中一人叫诺姆沙泽尔

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是工程副总裁兼GEMINI模型联合负责人

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他跳槽去了OpenAI

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另一个人叫约翰江破

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他在谷歌工作了9年

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现在准备跳槽去ANTHROPIC公司

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JPO和谷歌的DAMI斯获得了诺贝尔化学奖

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做了一款叫阿尔法fold的人工智能模型

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预测了超过2亿个蛋白质结构

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缩短了生物学和医学研究的时间啊

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重要的科学家跳槽去了竞争对手那儿

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谷歌的jimmy nine虽然突飞猛进了

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但是AI编程这一块还是没有ANTHROPIC

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the cloud那么强劲

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最近AI编程工具已经成为

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ANTHROPIC和OpenAI的增长点

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从6月中旬起

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ANTHROPIC和OpenAI开始讨论降价

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为了应对来自ANTHROPIC的竞争

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以及企业用户对高昂AI成本的抱怨

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OpenAI内部讨论

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要大幅下调token计费标准及部分订阅价格

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那如果两家公司同时大幅降价

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将会点燃全球AI大模型的价格战

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那一边是AI应用层可能要打起价格战

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另一边是高额资本投入下

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折旧可能要提速

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这将大幅增加成本

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减少利润

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谷歌微软

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亚马逊和meta这些巨头

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今年继续提出巨额资本支出

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建设了大量新的数据中心

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这些资产就会开始产生折旧

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折旧费用和资本开支是同步翻倍

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同步上涨

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数据中心到底折旧几年是个问题

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之前大空头MICROBERRY就指出

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折旧人为拉长

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降低成本

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虚增利润是做空的理由

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对于那些花钱买入后可以用好多年的固定资产

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交通工具或者是设备

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会计上不会一次性计入成本

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而是会用几年时间分摊折旧的成本

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折旧年限如果原来是6年

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缩短成5年

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那折旧费用就会大幅提高

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亚马逊已经率先将数据中心资产的折旧年限

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从6年缩短为5年

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因为几年时间技术发展可快了

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老的设备很快就会被新的迭代

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其他几个云巨头估计也会跟进

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超大型云服务商的折旧年限

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可能会缩短至三到5年

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数据中心又贵

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又折旧不了几年

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每年的成本就会非常高

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这就有点尴尬了啊

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收入端听说要搞价格战嗯

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资产端呢又要加速折旧

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这不是两头挨打的生意模式吗

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AI应用层公司本来就被质疑

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高投入是否会有回报

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那现在消息面看起来更加不利了

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但是谷歌是伯克希尔最新建仓的个股

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除了一季度13F披露了新增买入之外

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阿贝尔还通过定向增发的方式

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增加了对谷歌投资100亿

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伯克希尔对谷歌定增的成本挺高的

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A类股是351.81

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C类股是348.2

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那今天谷歌C类股

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GOOG的收盘是348.67美元

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和股神巴菲特公司最新一笔建仓成本几乎持平

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那从这个角度来说

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输了股市也不会输给巴菲特啦

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最新上市的SPACEX连续下跌

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快要接近上市开盘价150了

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SPCX收盘154.60

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大跌16.43%

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但是换手率高达28.38%

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交易活跃度还是很高

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市场恐慌情绪主要源于公司在IPO后不久

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便计划发行约200亿美元的无抵押债券

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以偿还借款

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引发了投资者对公司现金流状况和高

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资本支出的担忧

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这公司让人感觉非常烧钱

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而且要看到盈利却相当不易

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美股前十市值里面还没有出现过

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像这种亏损的公司

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公司的股权结构还让马斯克一股独大

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谁也无法挑战和制约马斯克的投票权

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一年内几乎每个月都有限售股票解禁

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怎么卖也卖不完

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期书炒作主要围绕三个方面

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明星热点效应

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流通盘不大

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还有就是纳入指数

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预期纳入指数这件事

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经过一番论证啊

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发现能够引入的被动ETF配置也就几十个亿

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并不是洪水漫灌

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而解禁是确定性事件

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筹码的供应将会源源不断

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预计SPACEX在纳入指数前或许有梅开二度的炒作

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但中长期可能会被限售股解禁制约

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易跌难涨

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SPCX不赚钱

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所以股价可能短线

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因为是热点

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有流动性溢价容易涨一波

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但是不赚钱的公司难以产生持续爆发力

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当下最赚钱的存储行业

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股价涨幅最为可观

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持有存储股是上半年最赚钱的策略

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总市上涨几乎不怎么调整

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美光科技mu将在本周三收盘后发布财报

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财报前表现强劲

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盘中上涨6.82%

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收盘1211

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分析师预期每股收益在20.57美元左右

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远高于公司之前的指引

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反映出市场对AI存储需求的极高期待

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Earning whisper

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预测每股收益22.15美元啊

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预期更高

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IPK2的账户后台提供的分析是一致

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预期是20.47美元

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未来几个季度EPS的预测柱状图还在明显增长

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这解释了股价为什么一直在上涨

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RBQR后台提供的免费资料

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是研究基本面的工具

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他的网址我放在视频下方置顶了

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想了解这家券商的话

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欢迎点击置顶的链接

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6月份纳斯达克指数成份股调整

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纳指100

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这个重要的指数是纳斯达克最强的

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100家非金融类上市公司的集合

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6月22号被纳入指数的有五只股票

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分别是ALABCRWVMBISR

217
00:10:04,730 --> 00:10:06,590
KLB和TER

218
00:10:06,590 --> 00:10:08,649
踢出去的五支就不说了

219
00:10:08,649 --> 00:10:10,750
说一下新进的五只股

220
00:10:10,750 --> 00:10:14,070
纳入指数之前主要都是上涨的

221
00:10:14,070 --> 00:10:15,809
这五只股的入选

222
00:10:15,809 --> 00:10:19,240
体现了纳斯达克交易所对AI的倾向性

223
00:10:19,240 --> 00:10:21,879
五只股里面有三家AI

224
00:10:21,879 --> 00:10:23,120
一家航天

225
00:10:23,120 --> 00:10:24,549
一家机器人

226
00:10:24,549 --> 00:10:27,809
a sterile lapse是AI基础设施公司

227
00:10:27,809 --> 00:10:30,350
专门做机架级的AI连接方案

228
00:10:30,350 --> 00:10:33,668
以前被称为小英伟达ALAB

229
00:10:33,668 --> 00:10:35,609
在2024年上市后

230
00:10:35,609 --> 00:10:38,389
靠小英伟达的标签炒了一波

231
00:10:38,389 --> 00:10:40,289
后来就沉寂了

232
00:10:40,289 --> 00:10:42,210
最近被加入纳指100

233
00:10:42,210 --> 00:10:43,850
股价创出新高

234
00:10:43,850 --> 00:10:46,450
离上市后低点也有十倍了

235
00:10:46,450 --> 00:10:47,809
这让我想到啊

236
00:10:47,809 --> 00:10:50,289
有一些上市后跌很多的股票

237
00:10:50,289 --> 00:10:52,330
会有少数乌鸦变凤凰

238
00:10:52,330 --> 00:10:54,000
出现十倍股

239
00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:55,980
但更多的股票是IPO

240
00:10:55,980 --> 00:10:59,578
热闹一阵子之后就消失在人们的视线中

241
00:10:59,578 --> 00:11:02,038
要发现IPO后的十倍股

242
00:11:02,038 --> 00:11:04,379
不但要有超越常人的眼光

243
00:11:04,379 --> 00:11:06,870
还必须有超乎常人的淡定

244
00:11:06,870 --> 00:11:11,200
不然你看他之前几轮大的调整是根本拿不住的

245
00:11:11,200 --> 00:11:13,820
c r w v corn wave啊

246
00:11:13,820 --> 00:11:15,879
之前人称英伟达的亲儿子

247
00:11:15,879 --> 00:11:18,159
是英伟达在投资公告中披露

248
00:11:18,159 --> 00:11:19,940
仓位最大的一个个股

249
00:11:19,940 --> 00:11:22,759
但他加入纳指100并没有大涨

250
00:11:22,759 --> 00:11:24,679
而是继续维持调整

251
00:11:24,679 --> 00:11:26,759
可能是之前英伟达亲儿子

252
00:11:26,759 --> 00:11:29,200
这个炒作一波涨幅太大了

253
00:11:29,200 --> 00:11:32,299
套牢的多还在消化套牢盘

254
00:11:32,299 --> 00:11:35,659
NBIS这家公司服务领域

255
00:11:35,659 --> 00:11:37,720
涵盖了医疗与生物科学

256
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:38,840
机器人与物理

257
00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:40,379
AI金融服务

258
00:11:40,379 --> 00:11:43,519
媒体零售等多行业名字

259
00:11:43,519 --> 00:11:45,000
取得好多头行情

260
00:11:45,000 --> 00:11:46,409
挺牛的

261
00:11:46,409 --> 00:11:48,750
R k l b rocket lab

262
00:11:48,750 --> 00:11:51,570
因为在SPACEX上市前炒作一波

263
00:11:51,570 --> 00:11:53,339
最近正在回调

264
00:11:53,339 --> 00:11:56,578
因为航天相关板块在SPACEX带动下

265
00:11:58,019 --> 00:12:00,980
RKLB暂时不太好判断

266
00:12:00,980 --> 00:12:03,450
TER是机器人公司

267
00:12:03,450 --> 00:12:07,110
TR在工业机器人领域已经是重要参与者

268
00:12:07,110 --> 00:12:10,000
也是全球协作机器人市场的领导者

269
00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:13,340
生产可以与人类一起安全工作的机械臂

270
00:12:13,340 --> 00:12:15,318
还有自主移动机器人

271
00:12:15,318 --> 00:12:19,429
在工厂车间内实现货币搬运和物流的自动化

272
00:12:19,429 --> 00:12:22,710
另外它还是半导体测试设备供应商

273
00:12:22,710 --> 00:12:23,929
帮助苹果

274
00:12:23,929 --> 00:12:27,429
台积电等巨头进行半导体精密测试

275
00:12:27,669 --> 00:12:29,750
那么它的半导体物理

276
00:12:29,750 --> 00:12:33,809
AI机器人等概念是目前和未来的重要题材

277
00:12:33,809 --> 00:12:35,549
是一只好股票

278
00:12:35,549 --> 00:12:39,529
今天我IBKR公开账户亏损3791

279
00:12:39,529 --> 00:12:40,190
截图

280
00:12:40,190 --> 00:12:41,809
净值20.4万

281
00:12:41,809 --> 00:12:43,210
除了特斯拉

282
00:12:43,210 --> 00:12:45,710
其他的持仓全部下跌

283
00:12:45,710 --> 00:12:48,029
特斯拉今天倒是反弹了

284
00:12:48,029 --> 00:12:51,110
但第二大仓位的谷歌跌幅不小

285
00:12:51,110 --> 00:12:53,049
因此整体亏损

286
00:12:53,049 --> 00:12:54,870
在这些个股当中

287
00:12:54,870 --> 00:12:56,539
微软可以说一下

288
00:12:56,539 --> 00:12:58,980
微软今年表现极差

289
00:12:58,980 --> 00:13:00,480
过往业绩不错

290
00:13:00,480 --> 00:13:03,110
但投资者现在不买这种的

291
00:13:03,110 --> 00:13:04,889
从周K线来看

292
00:13:04,889 --> 00:13:09,289
362是MA250支撑线上的最后一关

293
00:13:09,289 --> 00:13:10,529
过去20年

294
00:13:10,529 --> 00:13:12,730
微软从来没有跌破这条线

295
00:13:12,730 --> 00:13:16,379
这可以说是微软最后一块遮羞布了

296
00:13:16,379 --> 00:13:17,879
从短线来说

297
00:13:17,879 --> 00:13:19,519
微软头肩底失败

298
00:13:19,519 --> 00:13:21,460
用日线图十连阴

299
00:13:21,460 --> 00:13:23,980
调整之路有点艰难

300
00:13:23,980 --> 00:13:27,940
短线期待在周线ma250的一线反弹

301
00:13:27,940 --> 00:13:31,279
中线仍然可能维持调整趋势好

302
00:13:31,279 --> 00:13:32,879
那今天的节目就分享到这里

303
00:13:32,879 --> 00:13:33,779
感谢大家收看

304
00:13:33,779 --> 00:13:35,620
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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