美股：突然挤兑，就没戏唱了。【2026-06-04】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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标普指数今天上涨30.63点

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涨幅0.4%

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一小阳线上涨

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但是今天没有创新高了

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这是不创新高的

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第二天指数反弹后收复了10日线

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但没有站上5日线

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短线有可能转为震荡或者走几天休整的行情

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大盘不再创新高的概率不高

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调整几天后

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突破7620点的可能性并不小

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标普指数目前强势依旧

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整理不足为惧

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纳斯达克指数挣扎了一天

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收盘还是跌了23个点

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跌幅0.09%

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这是昨天小阴线下跌后延续的跌幅

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今天并没有像样的反弹

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更没有演变成大跌

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半导体可能表现出调整

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但是其他板块接过了护盘的重任

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从行业热力图上看

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除半导体和硬件之外

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大多数板块是上涨的

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绿意一片黯然

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这可能是半导体和硬件上面的资金出逃后

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调仓进入了各个板块去了

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硬件下跌

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资金转战别的板块

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于是今天道指涨了874点

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涨幅1.73%

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创出历史新高

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传统板块和避险板块今天获得了资金流入

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可见美股的资金并没有外流

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目前的这个赌场的客人并没有提现离开赌场

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而是从这个赌桌转向另一个赌桌

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今天美国公布了申请失业金人数

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上周初请失业金人数超过经济学家的预期

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首次申请失业金人数增加了1.3万人

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达到22.5万人

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而预期值是21.5万人

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持续申请失业金的人数下降到178万人

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失业保险申请人数的持续增长

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可能表明

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伊朗战争带来的成本上升和经济不确定性加剧

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正开始给雇主带来压力

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此外啊

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对人工智能的持续投资

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也导致一些科技公司裁员

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明天将要公布的非农和失业率

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估计仍将保持在4.3%的失业率水平

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市场预期非农新增就业人数上升到10.2万人

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不低于10万

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就看起来还可以

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虽然按周公布的初请失业金人数上升且超预期

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劳动力市场的状况

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仍不足以促成美联储采取降息的行动

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而另一方面物价回升

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所以货币政策加息预期回升了

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市场有两个利空消息

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一个是本年度反复出现的私募信贷基金风险

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时不时的出现限制赎回

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今天黑石限制旗下一支规模

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790亿美元的基金赎回

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触发赎回限制的原因是巨额赎回请求

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二季度

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基金持有人要求赎回的额度

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达到规模的10%

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超过5%拒俗规定

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所以就限制了赎回

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基金面临巨额赎回时

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采取限制措施是正常的操作

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也是按合同来办事

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今年私募信贷基金总是有大额赎回

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基金流动性没有那么好

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私募信贷基金是不上市的产品

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拿了私募来的资金用来投放私人贷款

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贷款可能利息高吧

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但不能说收回就收回

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这投投资人要赎回

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那投贷款收不回来

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就限制了基金应对赎回的能力

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这样的基金在今年和其他投资品种相比

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没有吸引力

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一方面

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软件公司是私募信贷的主要客户

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他们不被市场看好

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认为软件公司的贷款会违约

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投资人怕借出去的钱收不回来

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所以就向基金公司赎回

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另外AI板块涨幅可观

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formal情绪深厚

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炒一两个月就翻倍

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令人头脑发热

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这可能也是促进一些私募基金

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投资者赎回的原因

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美联储在上次会议资料中提及私募信贷风险

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但私募信贷基金的风险

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可能不至于引起系统性金融风险

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有一些人可能会在这上面亏点钱

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但是不会像2008年的次贷危机那样的

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重穿市场

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不过桥水基金的创始人达利欧今天严厉警告说

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现在股市泡沫大

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如果获利了结的人一多

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泡沫会破灭

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达利欧认为

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目前人工智能投资热潮已出现典型的泡沫特征

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所有伟大的技术都会催生泡沫

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刺破泡沫的过程

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就是把账面财富转化为现金的过程

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当投资者开始集中兑现投资收益时

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泡沫就会破裂

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达利欧是什么意思呢

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我举个例子解释他的观点

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有一个小区有1000套房子

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每个月有20套房子在市场上交易成交

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一套房子的价钱就可以推算整个小区的市值

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比如今天一套房子按100万成交了

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大家就认为这1000套房子总价值是十个亿

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明天有一套按150万成交了

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小区的市值就暴涨到了15亿了

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但是一两套房的成交价

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能代表所有房子的价值吗

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如果有一天突然有300个房子拿出来要卖

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市场根本无法按高价接盘

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卖方兑现利润时

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买家无力接盘的情况下

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市场会出现两个重大风险

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比价格暴跌更大的风险是流动性风险

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卖不出去

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无人接盘

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于是成交价立即断崖式下跌

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一直要跌到很便宜了

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才会有人来看房

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股市也是一样的

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一家公司2万亿的市值

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每天股票成交200亿

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这1%的换手

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就决定了百分之百的筹码价值

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当投资者挤进来买入时

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股价上升的快

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当投资者挤着兑现时

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股价崩得更快

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AI是目前最拥挤的投资赛道

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因此达利欧说

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当投资者集中兑现

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利润泡沫就会破裂

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他强调说

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泡沫破了

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技术仍将继续进步

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就像互联网泡沫那样

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股价大涨大跌

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有人赚

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有人血亏

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但最后互联网改变了全球

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经济和人们的生活方式

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科技革命不会因为泡沫破灭而停止

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今天美股半导体调整

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主要原因就是博通财报后大跌

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引发板块连锁反应

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博通的财报数据是没有问题的

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营业收入和利润超过预期

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二季度AI相关营收指引也上调到了160亿

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同比增速210%

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但是CEO陈福阳拒绝

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为2027年及以后的营收指引加码

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也就是画饼

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到此为止

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陈福阳最长远的人工智能业务

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表现出冷静和克制

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这让资本大失所望

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普通股价大跌

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但我预计股价很快会得到修正

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反弹的概率较大

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相比之下

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同一赛道的迈威尔今天低开高走

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继续大涨

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marvel延续强势风格

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保持上涨势头

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有没有吹牛

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股价表现差很多啊

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你看博通不吹牛

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博通大跌

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迈威尔被黄仁勋吹到1万亿

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所以现在看还挺便宜的

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不过博通和迈威尔可以对标的

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如果迈威尔继续大涨

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博通也就很有可能会反弹

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费城半导体指数受博通影响

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但日K线的趋势并没有改变

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这一轮上涨一个多月

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行业指数翻倍

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市场有过热的迹象

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但趋势还是牛市

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目前暂不确定什么时候会出现拐点

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宏观及地缘政治方面

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中东吵吵停停

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以色列撤出黎巴嫩南部部分地区

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受此消息影响

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油价跳水

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但油价仍未出现头部形态

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油价的空投只有在布伦特原油跌破90之后

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才有技术性打压的空间

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如果布伦特原油一直在90以上

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那只能算是震荡

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不形成空头趋势

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这次战争导致的原油价格上涨

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虽然对物价有一定的影响

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但最终是没有石油危机的风险

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波士顿联储的研究表明

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伊朗战争应该会导致物价指数上涨

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1.5个百分点

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但不会引起石油危机

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在上个世纪70年代

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石油危机导致就业下降1.8%

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现在整体就业的负面冲击基本上消失

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美国国内开发了大量页岩油

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美国国内石油生产显著降低了能源价格的冲击

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石油危机是金融市场的灾害了

225
00:08:56,259 --> 00:08:58,440
美联储说没有石油危机

226
00:08:58,440 --> 00:09:01,839
那这样的系统性风险就可以先排除了

227
00:09:01,839 --> 00:09:04,769
石油短线看能不能跌破90

228
00:09:04,769 --> 00:09:07,909
要是跌破90构成中期大顶

229
00:09:07,909 --> 00:09:10,029
那油价就会像川普说的那样

230
00:09:10,029 --> 00:09:11,730
很快就会跌下来

231
00:09:11,730 --> 00:09:15,190
游资量子计算新股QNT今天上市

232
00:09:15,190 --> 00:09:18,429
首日开盘冲了一波就整体回落

233
00:09:18,429 --> 00:09:20,328
换手率91%

234
00:09:20,328 --> 00:09:23,009
这次IPO获得了20倍的认购

235
00:09:23,009 --> 00:09:24,568
发行价60元

236
00:09:24,568 --> 00:09:26,509
有20倍的钱要认购

237
00:09:26,509 --> 00:09:29,990
但是上市首日差点破发

238
00:09:29,990 --> 00:09:33,230
QNT致力于量子计算解决方案

239
00:09:33,230 --> 00:09:36,599
也获得了美国政府的1亿美元的资金支持

240
00:09:36,599 --> 00:09:38,938
那今天不到20亿的市值

241
00:09:38,938 --> 00:09:41,278
和INQRGT

242
00:09:41,278 --> 00:09:44,499
IQBTS等同板块的个股相比

243
00:09:44,499 --> 00:09:45,769
市值偏低

244
00:09:45,769 --> 00:09:48,230
IONQ有200多亿

245
00:09:48,230 --> 00:09:49,330
RGTI啊

246
00:09:49,330 --> 00:09:50,470
也有80亿

247
00:09:50,470 --> 00:09:52,549
QBTS有100亿

248
00:09:52,549 --> 00:09:53,669
相比之下

249
00:09:53,669 --> 00:09:58,230
新上市的没有获利盘压力的QNT才20亿

250
00:09:58,230 --> 00:10:00,070
那我说这个QNT啊

251
00:10:00,070 --> 00:10:03,899
主要是因为他的大股东是honey wh o n

252
00:10:03,899 --> 00:10:05,000
据报道啊

253
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:06,179
IPO之后

254
00:10:06,179 --> 00:10:08,500
哈利威尔持有QNT的股权

255
00:10:08,500 --> 00:10:10,710
比例为49.1%

256
00:10:10,710 --> 00:10:12,809
哈利韦尔是大公司了

257
00:10:12,809 --> 00:10:14,750
道指30个成份股之一

258
00:10:14,750 --> 00:10:17,029
它的周K线实在是漂亮

259
00:10:17,029 --> 00:10:19,250
多年来长期慢牛上涨

260
00:10:19,250 --> 00:10:21,169
他投资的QNT上市

261
00:10:21,169 --> 00:10:23,639
对股价倒是没有太大的刺激

262
00:10:23,639 --> 00:10:28,720
苹果ww DC大会将于6月8号到12号召开

263
00:10:28,720 --> 00:10:31,620
2026WWDC大会

264
00:10:31,620 --> 00:10:33,860
主要会有哪些更新和升级

265
00:10:33,860 --> 00:10:35,980
对个股有什么期待呢

266
00:10:35,980 --> 00:10:39,799
市场认为这次苹果会更新操作系统

267
00:10:39,799 --> 00:10:42,159
对SIRI进行重大升级

268
00:10:42,159 --> 00:10:44,399
融入聊天机器人功能

269
00:10:44,399 --> 00:10:46,799
苹果手机可能会推出折叠屏

270
00:10:46,799 --> 00:10:51,470
可能会发布新款Mac mini软件和AI的更新

271
00:10:51,470 --> 00:10:53,159
可能会带动谷歌

272
00:10:53,159 --> 00:10:55,220
苹果与谷歌有协议

273
00:10:55,220 --> 00:11:00,099
将GEMINI模型作为未来AI功能和theory的重要驱动

274
00:11:00,099 --> 00:11:04,379
苹果会将谷歌的AI模型蒸馏后封装在本地

275
00:11:04,379 --> 00:11:07,190
从而实现低延迟的终端智能

276
00:11:07,190 --> 00:11:08,789
昨天的节目我说到

277
00:11:08,789 --> 00:11:10,409
Cr c l circle

278
00:11:10,409 --> 00:11:13,909
可能在8月份与coin base谈判时处于下风

279
00:11:13,909 --> 00:11:17,828
到时USDC收益还是得分一半给coin base

280
00:11:17,828 --> 00:11:22,129
于是呢不少观众就问circle要不要卖出了

281
00:11:22,129 --> 00:11:25,269
目前稳定币可投资的个股只有这一家

282
00:11:25,269 --> 00:11:27,009
也没有别的选择

283
00:11:27,009 --> 00:11:29,230
美国非常重视加密货币

284
00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:32,009
要保持美元在链上的霸主地位

285
00:11:32,009 --> 00:11:34,909
行业的大方向是看得清楚的

286
00:11:34,909 --> 00:11:36,029
贝森特预计

287
00:11:36,029 --> 00:11:40,009
2030年稳定币规模将会达到2万亿美元

288
00:11:40,009 --> 00:11:44,309
但circle是不是会在行业发展中吃到应有的份额

289
00:11:44,309 --> 00:11:46,549
是否有重大的发展空间

290
00:11:46,549 --> 00:11:48,710
还是十分不确定

291
00:11:48,710 --> 00:11:52,870
最近几个月USDC的流通量不增反减

292
00:11:52,870 --> 00:11:55,210
最近只剩下755亿

293
00:11:55,210 --> 00:11:58,230
接下来比特币的熊市好像来了

294
00:11:58,230 --> 00:11:59,870
币圈现在不热门

295
00:11:59,870 --> 00:12:02,220
资金都在往AI集中

296
00:12:02,500 --> 00:12:04,200
稳定币的规模增减

297
00:12:04,200 --> 00:12:06,169
目前主要还是看币圈

298
00:12:06,169 --> 00:12:08,029
如果币圈进入熊市

299
00:12:08,029 --> 00:12:09,509
资金流入减少

300
00:12:09,509 --> 00:12:11,828
稳定币的规模就上不去了

301
00:12:11,828 --> 00:12:13,649
circle的收入很简单

302
00:12:13,649 --> 00:12:15,769
稳定币规模乘以利率

303
00:12:15,769 --> 00:12:17,389
得到利息收入

304
00:12:17,389 --> 00:12:19,730
利率接下来是不会跌了

305
00:12:19,730 --> 00:12:22,549
那么稳定币规模如果不增长

306
00:12:22,549 --> 00:12:24,559
收入也就难以增长

307
00:12:24,559 --> 00:12:29,080
至于支付结算ARCCPN等非利息收入

308
00:12:29,080 --> 00:12:30,539
属于长期叙事

309
00:12:30,539 --> 00:12:32,509
需要一点时间的

310
00:12:32,509 --> 00:12:34,230
circle有长期潜力

311
00:12:34,230 --> 00:12:36,429
但短线有一定的风险

312
00:12:36,429 --> 00:12:38,289
那我不会轻易卖出

313
00:12:38,289 --> 00:12:40,230
因为我不是做短线的

314
00:12:40,230 --> 00:12:43,690
今天我的公开账户净资产21.5万

315
00:12:43,690 --> 00:12:45,849
小幅盈利1156

316
00:12:45,849 --> 00:12:47,969
今天账户居然没有亏钱

317
00:12:47,969 --> 00:12:49,629
也挺意外的啊

318
00:12:49,629 --> 00:12:52,289
随着马斯克的SPACEX上市

319
00:12:52,289 --> 00:12:54,849
特斯拉机会与风险参半

320
00:12:54,849 --> 00:12:55,788
下周啊

321
00:12:55,788 --> 00:12:59,370
这个账户估计会因此来一把大的波动好

322
00:12:59,370 --> 00:13:01,149
那今天的节目就分享到这里

323
00:13:01,149 --> 00:13:02,049
感谢大家收看

324
00:13:02,049 --> 00:13:03,250
我们下期节目再见

325
00:13:03,250 --> 00:13:04,000
拜拜

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