【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】瑞·达利欧VS巴菲特：面对通胀与战争，谁才是对的？

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对投资者来说是个好日子

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我确实热爱历史

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我喜欢雷·达利亚将历史视角应用于当今时代

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现在结合他最近的两篇文章

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我想讨论他是否正在长期债务周期问题上越来越接近正确

6
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随着他一直预测的局势发展

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让我们从最终决战说起

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主导力量是你吗

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美国若能掌控霍尔木兹海峡

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他们将占据优势

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如果做不到

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则表明主导力量在衰退

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随后将陷入财政过度扩张

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类似这样的情况

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失去军事与金融控制

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或许不是现在

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但另一方面

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如果他们取胜

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将增强信心

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美元将更强势

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可以借到更多钱

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等等

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等等

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我认为霍尔木兹局势并非最终决战

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下一个十年的决战会是这个

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就是这个

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这个小岛

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就在那里

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这才是真正实力的考验

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一方表示还未准备好

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让我在另一侧消耗导弹

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然而我们才看到冲突的开端

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试图削弱对方

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雷·达利亚多次讨论的战争情景长期债务周期

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当前局势

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如果你不喜欢某人

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就绑架或轰炸

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这类行为为新兴力量树立地缘政治先例

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类似这样的事

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这就是战争

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这就是对抗

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这就是残酷现实

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但最终我们可能接受

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我们可能无法接受

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我当然无法接受

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但这就是我们所处的时代 时间会给出答案

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我们将看到是何种胜利

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这会是

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但我们需要回归五大要素

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长期债务周期

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当所有这些拼图碎片逐渐汇聚

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政治因素

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未来税收

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因为这可能成为明年人们讨论的下一个话题

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百分之八十的美国人并未随着富人变得更富有而变得更富裕

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这始终是存在的问题

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地缘政治正在发展

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形势并不乐观

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总会有技术、人工智能和生产力

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失业问题

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过去几年自然形成的

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好的

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但在这条线上永远充满变数

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总是喜欢阅读达利欧的文章

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但我的核心信息是

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正如达霍所说，所有市场都由增长驱动

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通胀风险溢价与折现率

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沿着这条线

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在当前局势下

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没有人考虑长期

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大家都在追求高速增长

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反弹

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我正在解决危机应对

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这种事情很少发生

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大部分资金都集中在这些领域

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快速增长与债务

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而在投资方面

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当然，达利欧的观点需要被验证

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只有当我们完全认同风险

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查理·芒格

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永久性资本损失与回报不足

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这里对达利欧的定义相同

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如果我们现在处于这个周期的位置

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只需观察金融资产占总资产的比例

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在历史上每次类似阶段

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过去一百年间

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对投资者来说非常糟糕

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如果查看我的历史图表

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每次投资者实际购买力都会损失超过60%

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但现在我们看到迹象

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私人信贷市场出现过山车现象

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类似的情况

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但仍在持续

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违约率仍为正值

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仍为负值

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然而

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谈到投资领域

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达利欧

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正确强调关键在于真实有形财富

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随着时间推移，你可以拥有更多

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如果我们观察实际债券收益率

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目前货币的实际收益率

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我们仍深陷负利率或零利率区间

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即使最佳情况也需要五十年才能回本

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即便出现些许正现金流迹象

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新的趋势随之浮现

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现金流变得非常低

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但承诺始终存在

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我们周日会详细讨论

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这两个叙事非常有趣

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收入达一万亿美元

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一方面

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在支出方面

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我们尚未看到所有公司的实际盈利

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拭目以待

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只要能承诺一切正常

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市场现状是

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英伟达市值比美股高7%

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美股占全球市场62%

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单家公司占据全球股市4.5%

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就这个周期而言

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大债务周期仍在持续

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人们只是在价格上投资

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而非基本面

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我的意思是

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养老基金如何获利

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若实际收益率为零

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毫无作为

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核心问题是如何投资

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如何保护自己

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或许会引发通胀性崩盘

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这大大复杂化局势

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就大债务周期而言

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我希望并相信雷·达里奥也衷心希望

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他错了

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但历史告诉我们终究是人类

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实体

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财富问题至关重要

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最终

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关乎你能吃什么

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消费这类物品

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支出旨在延续周期

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货币增发

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利率政策

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不质疑盈利能力

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直到那一天来临

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关键问题是你是否准备好了

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或未准备好

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开始了

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它在不断发展中

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我们必须做好准备

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我们必须谨慎行事

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但巴菲特用三百七十亿美元现金展现的谨慎

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或许不再适用

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因为通胀同样存在

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但雷·达里奥只需在投资周期中正确一次

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这或许是他的核心信息

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一切都很顺利

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而股票持续上涨

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但另一方面

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如果他正确

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只需一次

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可能就在2030年

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可能就在2040年

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你的回报

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你的实际购买力将依然非常糟糕

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这就是我们面临的风险

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谈到投资时

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我们生活在一个充满快节奏、利率波动、危机与变革的世界

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或谁会正确

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也许无人正确

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也许双方都对

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但并非现在

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是的

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谈到投资时

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雷·达里奥已连续十年判断错误

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人们七年前便忽视了他

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我会制作雷·达里奥专题视频

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这将是我的最高收益视频

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现在

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雷·达里奥啊

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他判断失误了

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这就是时机

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这是长期投资与短期投资的较量

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这就是我们所处的世界本质

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如何做好准备

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如果你担心长期问题杰里米

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格兰桑姆认为价值股被低估

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六成价值股跑赢市场

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相比四成成长股，这很有趣

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价值股被低估

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这或许是一种方法

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我不认为单纯的价值投资能带来太多帮助

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因为从纯粹角度看存在价值

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或业务持续恶化

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或长期竞争优势带来真实价值

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无论策略情景如何变化

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我认为应配置投资以应对各种情况

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无论谁是对的

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那些拥抱

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那些道家

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我们之后会详细讨论

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与迈克尔·伯里和胡的演示相比

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周日会很有趣

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但我们必须以一种无论发生什么

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我们都无妨

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这才是关键问题

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答案是

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我希望这很简单

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我在这里做个图表

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像瑞·达利欧说的那样做

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但我强烈反对这一点

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这就是我们的分歧

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不在周期或解决方案上

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是的

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这可能会有帮助

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尤其是几年前就做了

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用黄金等实物资产

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我同意在正确价格上

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综合所有我能总结

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我们可能以后深入探讨

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未来十年到二十年可能与过去截然不同

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我知道会有评论说

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当你说几乎没变化

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这就是核心信息

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那么问题来了

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我们无法预知会发生什么

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这引出下一个问题

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我接受这一点吗

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这是你需要回答的

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现在我们可能逐步深入

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在策略方面

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类似的事情

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暂且放在这里

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然后观察发展

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谢谢观看

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我们下次视频再见

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