【Financial Education】重仓股单日暴赚11万刀

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每隔一段时间你就会发现你的松饼被翻了过来

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天啊今天我们都惊醒了

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今天公开交易量突破六位数

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恭喜大家今天都有个好表现

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我没想到会有11.6万美元

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今天的公开账户数据

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好的

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今天我们视频里有很多内容要讲

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女士们先生们

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今天amd走势强劲

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amd今日上涨8.5万美元

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当前公开交易数据

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持有时价850美元

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累计收益8000美元

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涨幅超300%

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amd走势强劲

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amd有重大利好消息

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我们一定会详细讨论

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在本期视频中

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elf beauty准备好迎接你的松饼被翻

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好的

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今天我们将在视频中分析这只股票

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盘后上涨约4-5%

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好的

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英伟达

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太有趣了

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比如

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大家总期待英伟达会有大幅上涨

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哦

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天啊

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这段视频会很疯狂

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然后股价下跌1%

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确实如此

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这就是股市的常态

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大家总期待某种结果

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结果完全相反

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好的

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今天我们视频将讨论三大主题

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好的

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第一amd

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我有个好消息

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关于amd

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我们将详细分析这些内容

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第二elf情况如何

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股价走势如何

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我将分享我的预测

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最新数据

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这些内容将在本期视频中呈现

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第三elf的投资机会

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第三英伟达

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不仅仅是英伟达

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这对未来半导体行业意味着什么

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这对AMD未来意味着什么

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这对英伟达未来意味着什么

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基于这些数据和当前形势

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好的，忙碌又充实的时间

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女士们先生们

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有一点

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我只需要你们做一件事

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希望你们喜欢我努力保持更新

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我只需要你们

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就是点赞

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那个点赞按钮

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这对我来说意义重大

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只要一个小小的点赞就够了

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我问你们

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这就是今天视频的全部报酬

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只需轻轻点个赞

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感谢每一位这样做的人，也请订阅频道

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看看新车库里的样子

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我签了合同

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如果你看到旧椅子

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看到的招牌悬挂方式是

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你知道的

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新房子

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同样的氛围

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宝贝

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好的

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这就是今天我们讨论的内容

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Patreon黄金 tier 限时特惠

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黄金 tier

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该 tier 通常为145美元

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我们推出一日特卖49美元

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获得我的股票大师课程访问权

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获取股票信息

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我在 Patreon 投资组合每周买卖操作

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还有其他额外福利

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比这更好的就是加入我的私密群组

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获取下一支股票

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除此之外

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太棒了

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好的

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黄金 tier 将被置顶

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在下方评论区报名特惠活动

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你一定要抢购

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尤其是投资第一年的观众

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你已经

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你知道投资金额在5万美元以下

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这是纪念日不容错过的优惠

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距离现在仅几天时间

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好的

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听好了，听好了

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今天这里有个重大动作

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就像你知道的，我们一直预料AMD会有大动作

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好的

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但这里到底发生了什么

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顺便说说这些种种情况

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让我

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你知道的

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我们会详细讨论很多

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好的

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我不想到处乱跳

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AMD这家公司

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这条新闻出来了

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AMD

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她在周一于北京会见了李峰

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据多家媒体报道

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她还重申AMD致力于扩大在中国的业务

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现在这对AMD来说是巨大利好

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但对NVIDIA同样重要

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甚至可能惠及美光等公司

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听着

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中国市场远未达到

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像NVIDIA或AMD应有的规模

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现在

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现在几乎毫无意义

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对它们的商业模式而言

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如果情况好转的话

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AMD和NVIDIA未来一年能在中国开展更多业务

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在未来几年

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这将提升这些公司的业绩

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以远超当前预期的方式

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因为所有人都认为中国业务为零

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如果中国业务真的存在

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我们正在讨论中

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猜猜这会推高价格多少

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因为中国客户将争夺同款芯片

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与美国公司竞争

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这意味着这些公司的利润率将上升

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你以为他们会维持原价

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不

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需求若进一步增长

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这也意味着利好

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甚至对美光、闪迪等公司也是好消息

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你知道的

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SK海力士、三星

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以及其他内存芯片公司

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这正是巨大机遇

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好的

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就中国这边而言，这里只有积极的一面

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女士们先生们，比如你们知道在Lisa那里

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直接与这位先生打交道绝对是巨大的

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现在你可能明白了

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这是什么

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好的

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在政策协调和国家战略方面拥有巨大权威

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科技和国际事务

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现在这里

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深厚的政治理权威

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他们的权力被放大

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因为他们通常是高级成员

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好的

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这位是Lisa Sue会面的他连

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他的名字

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好的

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他是一位中国经济学家和政治家

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他还担任

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你知道的

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我不需要详细说明

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好的

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他非常重要

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和G一样重要

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并非在

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天啊

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头号人物

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但如果说要办事

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在办事方面无人能比

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比这人更重要

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好的

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就是这个人

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你需要和他谈

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如果你想办事

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如果你想在中国做生意

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打开局面

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他无意双关

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你需要和他沟通

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好的

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他就是头号人物

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她会说

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别和我说这个

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Lisa Sue就像

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和他谈谈这个

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好的

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你需要找这个人

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你知道的

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关于这个要和他谈

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他们会促成事情

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现在这也让我想起

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你们看过那部《rush hour》吗

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里面有一个场景

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我不记得是哪一部《rush hour》

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这个在评论区提醒了我

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哪部《rush hour》电影

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这应该是

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我记不清是哪一部了

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但那个场景特别搞笑

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他像

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你是谁

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你不是

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不是我

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是的

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我是你？你是谁

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聋子吗

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你是瞎的

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我不是瞎的

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你是瞎的

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我刚才不是说了吗

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天啊就像

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有些名字真让我忍俊不禁

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兄弟

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不过认真说

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这绝对是个大新闻

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现在

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接下来还有什么

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嗯

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AMD的目标价上调至579美元，从358美元

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来自Evercore ISI

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我之前告诉过你们

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我说过这些分析师的目标价太低了

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他们必须跟上并继续跟进

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而AMD股价将突破千美元

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他们必须不断追赶

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这是一场惊人的追逐

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我必须说好吧

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但还会继续上涨

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Evercore ISI

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将公司对

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AMD的目标价上调至579美元，从358美元

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并维持对股票的跑赢大盘评级

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在一轮Q1 AI渠道调研后

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该公司表示

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主要听到的主题包括AI工作负载从训练导向转向推理

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到2026年底由领导集团主导

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这种转变正在加剧

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关注每token成本或总拥有成本

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一年前带你经历这一切的人

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我一年前真的让所有人经历了这个

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我是怎么知道的

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因为我一年前注意到了莉萨·苏的讲话

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她一直在谈论训练是核心重点

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从一开始就对英伟达至关重要

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他们的业务迅速扩张

253
00:08:06,029 --> 00:08:08,910
这就是英伟达市值超五万亿美元的原因

254
00:08:08,910 --> 00:08:09,470
没错

255
00:08:09,470 --> 00:08:12,000
但她反复强调

256
00:08:12,000 --> 00:08:16,800
一年前就提到推理将是下一个大趋势，推理规模更大

257
00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:19,240
长期机会远超训练阶段

258
00:08:19,240 --> 00:08:24,430
公司为此在推理领域布局完美

259
00:08:24,430 --> 00:08:25,110
就像

260
00:08:25,110 --> 00:08:27,870
实际应用模型时AMD至关重要

261
00:08:27,870 --> 00:08:31,028
尤其是在加速芯片成本方面

262
00:08:31,028 --> 00:08:31,428
没错

263
00:08:31,428 --> 00:08:34,589
如果你想获得最佳性价比，AMD是首选

264
00:08:34,589 --> 00:08:36,110
如果你想要绝对

265
00:08:36,110 --> 00:08:38,149
最顶尖的芯片你将

266
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:40,190
通常大多数情况选择英伟达

267
00:08:40,190 --> 00:08:43,470
但如果你想选接近顶尖的芯片

268
00:08:43,470 --> 00:08:46,179
性能相当接近且回报更好

269
00:08:46,179 --> 00:08:47,399
投资回报率

270
00:08:47,720 --> 00:08:49,159
这就是AMD的优势

271
00:08:49,159 --> 00:08:49,519
宝贝

272
00:08:49,519 --> 00:08:50,340
因此

273
00:08:50,340 --> 00:08:51,289
这就是为什么

274
00:08:51,289 --> 00:08:52,929
这是众多原因之一

275
00:08:52,929 --> 00:08:58,519
AMD商业模式正在发生根本性转变

276
00:08:58,519 --> 00:08:59,080
这并非

277
00:08:59,080 --> 00:09:02,039
这不会仅在一年内见效

278
00:09:02,039 --> 00:09:03,039
或下一季度

279
00:09:03,039 --> 00:09:05,440
将持续多年受益

280
00:09:05,440 --> 00:09:09,720
未来三到五年GPU业务将大幅增长

281
00:09:09,720 --> 00:09:11,240
规模空前

282
00:09:11,240 --> 00:09:13,860
此外现在讨论CPU需求

283
00:09:13,860 --> 00:09:18,519
远超莉萨·苏预期

284
00:09:18,519 --> 00:09:21,350
现在是一CPU配一GPU

285
00:09:21,350 --> 00:09:22,690
过去是四到八比一

286
00:09:22,690 --> 00:09:26,389
这又改变了AMD商业模式

287
00:09:26,389 --> 00:09:28,970
这就是为什么我会说

288
00:09:28,970 --> 00:09:31,519
AMD今年或明年股价可能突破千点

289
00:09:31,519 --> 00:09:34,240
尽管我不认为会达到千点以上

290
00:09:34,240 --> 00:09:35,568
二十九或三十

291
00:09:35,568 --> 00:09:38,129
它可能提前实现这一目标

292
00:09:38,129 --> 00:09:40,428
因为市场会合理定价

293
00:09:40,428 --> 00:09:42,369
人们会在未来几年内定价

294
00:09:42,369 --> 00:09:44,929
他们可能在接下来的六到十八个月内这样做

295
00:09:44,929 --> 00:09:46,629
这就是股票市场的运作方式

296
00:09:46,629 --> 00:09:51,009
就像英伟达股价飙升至两百多，远超预期

297
00:09:51,009 --> 00:09:51,370
他们曾认为

298
00:09:51,370 --> 00:09:51,870
哦

299
00:09:51,870 --> 00:09:52,330
你知道的

300
00:09:52,330 --> 00:09:54,250
英伟达未来几年可能涨到两百

301
00:09:54,250 --> 00:09:55,370
他们提前启动了这一波行情

302
00:09:55,370 --> 00:09:56,409
帕兰蒂尔也是如此

303
00:09:56,409 --> 00:09:58,029
提前拉升至两百多

304
00:09:58,029 --> 00:10:00,200
没错，这就是股票市场的常态

305
00:10:00,200 --> 00:10:02,120
我们面临两大基本面变化

306
00:10:02,120 --> 00:10:05,700
商业模式和华尔街正在追赶这一趋势

307
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:08,960
我们一年前就讨论过这个问题

308
00:10:08,960 --> 00:10:09,779
天啊

309
00:10:09,779 --> 00:10:10,860
我真希望能告诉你

310
00:10:10,860 --> 00:10:12,139
因为我是个超级天才

311
00:10:12,139 --> 00:10:12,419
不

312
00:10:12,419 --> 00:10:15,470
只是因为我关注CEO们的言论

313
00:10:15,470 --> 00:10:16,899
我观看他们的访谈

314
00:10:16,899 --> 00:10:18,539
我参加财报电话会议

315
00:10:18,539 --> 00:10:21,799
反复研究AI会议记录

316
00:10:21,799 --> 00:10:24,500
并阅读所有细节和线索

317
00:10:24,500 --> 00:10:26,240
因为他们不断留下线索

318
00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:27,879
将这些信息拼凑起来

319
00:10:27,879 --> 00:10:30,059
就能在华尔街提前布局股票

320
00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:31,399
华尔街急着抛售

321
00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:31,980
AMD

322
00:10:31,980 --> 00:10:33,299
你知道的，八十美元价位

323
00:10:33,299 --> 00:10:34,840
去年四月

324
00:10:34,840 --> 00:10:36,419
十三个月前

325
00:10:36,419 --> 00:10:38,620
他们急着以八十美元卖出股票

326
00:10:38,620 --> 00:10:39,179
九十美元

327
00:10:39,179 --> 00:10:40,068
一百美元

328
00:10:40,068 --> 00:10:41,068
现在他们开始意识到

329
00:10:41,068 --> 00:10:41,990
哦，嗯

330
00:10:41,990 --> 00:10:42,830
那里确实有东西

331
00:10:42,830 --> 00:10:43,070
没错

332
00:10:43,070 --> 00:10:45,110
也许应该关注莉莎·苏的言论

333
00:10:45,110 --> 00:10:46,090
莉莎·苏

334
00:10:46,090 --> 00:10:47,409
你知道这是CEO

335
00:10:47,409 --> 00:10:48,549
你可以完全信赖

336
00:10:48,549 --> 00:10:50,818
很多CEO

337
00:10:50,818 --> 00:10:51,759
或者像

338
00:10:51,759 --> 00:10:52,458
你知道的

339
00:10:52,458 --> 00:10:53,778
那些推手

340
00:10:53,778 --> 00:10:55,859
你不知道他们是否真的会兑现承诺

341
00:10:55,859 --> 00:10:56,519
他们会执行

342
00:10:56,519 --> 00:10:58,089
他们就是大推手

343
00:10:58,089 --> 00:10:59,849
莉萨·苏并不是说她

344
00:10:59,849 --> 00:11:01,349
如果她说要去做这件事

345
00:11:01,349 --> 00:11:02,769
如果她说团队会去做

346
00:11:02,769 --> 00:11:03,720
他们会去做的

347
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:05,460
他们会找到正确的方法来完成

348
00:11:05,460 --> 00:11:08,340
他们不会随便抛出数字或东西来

349
00:11:08,340 --> 00:11:08,720
你知道的

350
00:11:08,720 --> 00:11:08,960
比如

351
00:11:08,960 --> 00:11:09,919
看看哪些能行得通

352
00:11:09,919 --> 00:11:10,200
不

353
00:11:10,200 --> 00:11:10,870
不不不

354
00:11:10,870 --> 00:11:13,230
她算是最可靠的之一

355
00:11:13,230 --> 00:11:15,580
真正值得信赖的CEO

356
00:11:15,580 --> 00:11:16,980
全球任何大公司

357
00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:19,120
没错，她的业绩记录在那里

358
00:11:19,120 --> 00:11:21,049
还记得她加入AMD的时候

359
00:11:21,049 --> 00:11:22,710
她刚加入AMD不久

360
00:11:22,710 --> 00:11:24,250
股价不到两美元

361
00:11:24,250 --> 00:11:26,110
就像两美元的廉价酒

362
00:11:26,110 --> 00:11:30,279
当时很多人认为这家公司即将破产

363
00:11:30,279 --> 00:11:32,720
而现在我们谈论的是一家

364
00:11:32,720 --> 00:11:36,720
即将迈向万亿市值甚至万亿市值的公司

365
00:11:36,720 --> 00:11:38,970
全球最重要企业之一

366
00:11:38,970 --> 00:11:40,730
她仅用十年就做到了

367
00:11:41,929 --> 00:11:43,730
想想这个事实

368
00:11:44,110 --> 00:11:45,690
这简直难以置信

369
00:11:45,690 --> 00:11:46,529
绝对不可思议

370
00:11:46,529 --> 00:11:46,750
什么

371
00:11:46,750 --> 00:11:47,149
莉萨·苏

372
00:11:47,149 --> 00:11:49,679
团队正在逐步调整

373
00:11:49,679 --> 00:11:52,200
就以Evercore ISI为例

374
00:11:52,200 --> 00:11:54,379
这些机构刚刚上调了目标价

375
00:11:54,379 --> 00:11:55,549
好的

376
00:11:55,950 --> 00:11:56,830
继续

377
00:11:56,830 --> 00:11:57,570
继续

378
00:11:57,570 --> 00:11:58,370
使用Gemini

379
00:11:58,370 --> 00:11:59,190
询问什么

380
00:11:59,190 --> 00:12:02,190
一些最具市场影响力的分析师机构

381
00:12:02,190 --> 00:12:05,740
Evercore ISI真的非常重要

382
00:12:05,740 --> 00:12:06,779
Evercore ISI

383
00:12:06,779 --> 00:12:13,938
顶级独立投资银行顾问公司

384
00:12:13,938 --> 00:12:17,578
他们连续多年蝉联英特尔榜单

385
00:12:17,578 --> 00:12:20,330
全美研究调查连续多年第一

386
00:12:20,330 --> 00:12:21,590
他们是市场风向标

387
00:12:21,590 --> 00:12:24,500
这就是为什么像D类股会大幅波动

388
00:12:24,500 --> 00:12:24,860
当

389
00:12:24,860 --> 00:12:26,539
当像Evercore II这样的机构

390
00:12:26,539 --> 00:12:26,899
你知道的

391
00:12:26,899 --> 00:12:28,899
我可以一年前就告诉人们

392
00:12:28,899 --> 00:12:31,340
你知道Evercore II现在所说的内容

393
00:12:31,340 --> 00:12:33,119
你知道有些人会倾听

394
00:12:33,119 --> 00:12:34,298
有些人没怎么听

395
00:12:34,298 --> 00:12:35,879
也许他们应该多注意点 嘿

396
00:12:35,879 --> 00:12:36,279
你知道的

397
00:12:36,279 --> 00:12:37,460
Evercore isi 像

398
00:12:37,460 --> 00:12:38,440
我理解你们的意思 像

399
00:12:38,440 --> 00:12:39,059
我会给你提供

400
00:12:39,059 --> 00:12:39,919
我会还给你东西

401
00:12:39,919 --> 00:12:41,120
你得一年后讨论

402
00:12:41,120 --> 00:12:42,399
但我会提前一年做

403
00:12:42,399 --> 00:12:42,889
好的

404
00:12:42,889 --> 00:12:43,250
好的

405
00:12:43,250 --> 00:12:43,710
女士们先生们

406
00:12:43,710 --> 00:12:44,450
接下来登场的是

407
00:12:44,450 --> 00:12:45,289
圣诞小精灵

408
00:12:45,289 --> 00:12:46,570
然后我们谈谈英伟达财报

409
00:12:46,570 --> 00:12:49,210
以及这对AMD股票的后续影响

410
00:12:49,210 --> 00:12:51,200
至于半导体行业整体情况

411
00:12:51,200 --> 00:12:52,559
圣诞小精灵

412
00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:53,480
听着

413
00:12:53,480 --> 00:12:55,279
这只股票今天五十美元

414
00:12:55,279 --> 00:12:57,519
这只股票已经计入灾难预期

415
00:12:57,519 --> 00:13:01,159
几年前这只股票曾超两百美元

416
00:13:01,159 --> 00:13:10,220
没错 从预期来看 小精灵的灾难已被预期

417
00:13:10,220 --> 00:13:14,899
将股价从两百多跌到五十美元

418
00:13:14,899 --> 00:13:17,360
当时就计入了灾难预期

419
00:13:17,360 --> 00:13:19,450
四ps合约如此紧密

420
00:13:19,450 --> 00:13:20,049
两年期

421
00:13:20,049 --> 00:13:21,409
四ps合约现在依然紧密

422
00:13:21,409 --> 00:13:21,809
一个小精灵

423
00:13:21,809 --> 00:13:23,789
几乎让人觉得是价值股

424
00:13:23,789 --> 00:13:24,730
甚至不是成长股

425
00:13:24,730 --> 00:13:24,809
现在

426
00:13:24,809 --> 00:13:25,629
此时此刻

427
00:13:25,629 --> 00:13:27,750
不是营收增长35%的公司

428
00:13:27,750 --> 00:13:31,490
没错 这个小精灵的变化令人着迷

429
00:13:31,490 --> 00:13:31,669
好的

430
00:13:31,669 --> 00:13:33,250
必须理解这一点

431
00:13:33,250 --> 00:13:36,299
关于这些公布的财报数据没错

432
00:13:36,299 --> 00:13:37,840
还有非常重要的一点

433
00:13:37,840 --> 00:13:39,779
必须了解这个情况

434
00:13:39,779 --> 00:13:41,759
大约在这个时间点

435
00:13:41,759 --> 00:13:42,679
每年

436
00:13:42,679 --> 00:13:44,299
至少近几年来

437
00:13:44,299 --> 00:13:46,240
我多次目睹这一过程

438
00:13:46,240 --> 00:13:47,649
人们惊慌失措

439
00:13:47,649 --> 00:13:49,970
小精灵发布指引指引

440
00:13:49,970 --> 00:13:52,210
人们会说这指引太低

441
00:13:52,210 --> 00:13:53,549
为什么你知道的

442
00:13:53,549 --> 00:13:55,269
这就是他们所预期的

443
00:13:55,269 --> 00:13:56,169
每年

444
00:13:56,169 --> 00:13:59,969
他们每年这个时候都会公布新的财年数据

445
00:13:59,969 --> 00:14:03,168
人们总是陷入指引数据的陷阱

446
00:14:03,168 --> 00:14:06,389
指引数据总是不符合预期，啰里吧嗦的

447
00:14:06,389 --> 00:14:08,190
所有都要

448
00:14:10,419 --> 00:14:11,740
在这一年期间

449
00:14:11,740 --> 00:14:14,299
他们来了又来，是否再次超越指引呢

450
00:14:14,299 --> 00:14:16,340
他们又在全年多次上调指引

451
00:14:16,340 --> 00:14:17,360
大家终于意识到

452
00:14:17,360 --> 00:14:19,240
哦原来是个陷阱

453
00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,740
管理层极其保守

454
00:14:21,740 --> 00:14:26,720
看看这家公司有多少个季度营收超预期

455
00:14:26,720 --> 00:14:27,279
确实

456
00:14:27,279 --> 00:14:28,340
令人惊叹

457
00:14:28,340 --> 00:14:29,399
就像我喜欢

458
00:14:29,399 --> 00:14:31,539
我都不知道有多少个季度

459
00:14:31,539 --> 00:14:32,360
但他们从未

460
00:14:32,360 --> 00:14:33,240
简直就像

461
00:14:33,240 --> 00:14:34,320
简直就像

462
00:14:34,320 --> 00:14:36,720
这保证了每个季度营收都会达标

463
00:14:36,720 --> 00:14:37,940
这太荒谬了

464
00:14:37,940 --> 00:14:40,679
关于他们内部的稳定性

465
00:14:40,679 --> 00:14:41,210
好的

466
00:14:41,210 --> 00:14:44,250
财报发布前我做了重大操作

467
00:14:44,250 --> 00:14:45,009
非常大胆的操作

468
00:14:45,009 --> 00:14:46,889
我将其放在私密群的面包屑标签里

469
00:14:46,889 --> 00:14:47,169
显示

470
00:14:47,169 --> 00:14:48,460
超级临时决定

471
00:14:48,460 --> 00:14:52,840
我以五十美元捡到了七十万美元的L

472
00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:53,950
此时此刻

473
00:14:53,950 --> 00:14:56,210
上涨风险比下跌更让我担忧

474
00:14:56,210 --> 00:14:57,389
如果跌到四十美元

475
00:14:57,389 --> 00:15:00,120
哦随便我不管

476
00:15:00,120 --> 00:15:02,480
我只是想搭上两百多的快车

477
00:15:02,480 --> 00:15:04,700
我认为未来几年会达到这个价位

478
00:15:04,700 --> 00:15:05,639
我可能错了

479
00:15:05,639 --> 00:15:07,109
我之前也犯过错

480
00:15:07,109 --> 00:15:09,659
我把筹码全押上

481
00:15:09,659 --> 00:15:11,220
这是提前的大额买入

482
00:15:11,220 --> 00:15:12,480
但我在观察这只股票

483
00:15:12,480 --> 00:15:12,980
你知道的

484
00:15:12,980 --> 00:15:14,980
市场快收盘前的波动

485
00:15:14,980 --> 00:15:16,220
我说哥们

486
00:15:16,220 --> 00:15:18,570
五十美元啊，我确实

487
00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:21,549
我必须买入七十万美元所以执行了

488
00:15:21,549 --> 00:15:23,090
这就是现状

489
00:15:23,090 --> 00:15:23,409
好的

490
00:15:23,409 --> 00:15:24,629
财报结果如何

491
00:15:24,629 --> 00:15:25,710
接下来股价会怎么走

492
00:15:25,710 --> 00:15:26,730
我的预测如何

493
00:15:26,730 --> 00:15:27,190
好的

494
00:15:27,190 --> 00:15:31,059
收入同比增长了35%

495
00:15:31,059 --> 00:15:33,259
如果你想了解华尔街的游戏

496
00:15:33,259 --> 00:15:36,080
他们在调整后每股收益上击败了华尔街

497
00:15:36,080 --> 00:15:36,980
每股收益32美分

498
00:15:36,980 --> 00:15:37,500
每股收益29美分

499
00:15:37,500 --> 00:15:38,809
所以预期收入

500
00:15:38,809 --> 00:15:40,649
收入达4.49亿美元

501
00:15:40,649 --> 00:15:43,080
而预期是4.22亿美元

502
00:15:43,080 --> 00:15:43,720
我要告诉你

503
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:43,840
天啊

504
00:15:43,840 --> 00:15:45,259
他们来了并超越了业绩

505
00:15:45,259 --> 00:15:46,259
如果有一家公司

506
00:15:46,259 --> 00:15:47,419
我从不担心

507
00:15:47,419 --> 00:15:50,279
他们能否超越收入目标或整体数据

508
00:15:50,279 --> 00:15:51,519
就像圣诞老人的礼物

509
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:53,039
就像我从不用操心

510
00:15:53,039 --> 00:15:54,720
他们能否超越当前数据

511
00:15:54,720 --> 00:15:55,279
或者不会

512
00:15:55,279 --> 00:15:55,759
不不不

513
00:15:55,759 --> 00:15:56,259
好的

514
00:15:56,259 --> 00:15:58,279
市场预期令人失望

515
00:15:58,279 --> 00:15:58,539
比如

516
00:15:58,539 --> 00:15:58,740
哦

517
00:15:58,740 --> 00:16:00,379
仅讨论12%到14%的增长

518
00:16:00,379 --> 00:16:01,460
大致收入增长

519
00:16:01,460 --> 00:16:02,639
低谷之城

520
00:16:02,639 --> 00:16:03,779
我们稍后详细分析

521
00:16:03,779 --> 00:16:04,899
好的不

522
00:16:04,899 --> 00:16:06,360
至于损益表

523
00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:08,600
净销售额增长2.9%

524
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:09,179
或者抱歉

525
00:16:09,179 --> 00:16:10,929
同比增长3.5%

526
00:16:10,929 --> 00:16:12,970
销售成本仅上涨2.9%

527
00:16:12,970 --> 00:16:14,409
这对毛利率有利

528
00:16:14,409 --> 00:16:17,490
毛利率现在增长3.8%

529
00:16:17,490 --> 00:16:20,129
SG&A是个坏数字

530
00:16:20,129 --> 00:16:21,049
66%

531
00:16:21,049 --> 00:16:21,289
记住

532
00:16:21,289 --> 00:16:23,570
过去几年他们进行了大量收购

533
00:16:23,570 --> 00:16:25,850
包括重大收购RoadRight

534
00:16:25,850 --> 00:16:27,610
他们会解决SG&A问题

535
00:16:27,610 --> 00:16:29,570
我确信在未来一年

536
00:16:29,570 --> 00:16:30,049
好的

537
00:16:30,049 --> 00:16:31,889
我完全确信

538
00:16:31,889 --> 00:16:34,029
他们将在未来一年解决SG&A

539
00:16:34,029 --> 00:16:38,129
该比例不会保持66%的增长

540
00:16:38,129 --> 00:16:38,549
好的

541
00:16:38,549 --> 00:16:40,590
但将在未来几个季度解决

542
00:16:40,590 --> 00:16:41,649
他们会调整到合理水平

543
00:16:41,649 --> 00:16:42,159
好的

544
00:16:42,159 --> 00:16:44,879
此外他们还有一个类似一次性分类项目

545
00:16:44,879 --> 00:16:48,100
即或有对价公允价值变动

546
00:16:48,100 --> 00:16:49,539
这几乎达到了五

547
00:16:49,539 --> 00:16:51,068
八百万美元的损失

548
00:16:51,068 --> 00:16:53,308
因此导致他们出现经营亏损

549
00:16:53,308 --> 00:16:55,249
这更像是一笔非现金项目

550
00:16:55,249 --> 00:16:56,349
就这方面而言

551
00:16:56,349 --> 00:16:57,919
利息支出严重打击了他们

552
00:16:57,919 --> 00:17:00,919
最终导致损益表出现赤字

553
00:17:00,919 --> 00:17:04,500
但elf从F级提升至二百强

554
00:17:04,500 --> 00:17:05,839
任何高于F级的表现

555
00:17:05,839 --> 00:17:07,220
股价自然上涨

556
00:17:07,220 --> 00:17:09,259
这就是目前的实际情况

557
00:17:09,259 --> 00:17:12,710
随着未来几个季度的进展

558
00:17:12,710 --> 00:17:15,130
SG他们将这个数字下调

559
00:17:15,130 --> 00:17:17,190
摆脱这一一次性项目

560
00:17:17,190 --> 00:17:17,930
你知道的

561
00:17:17,930 --> 00:17:20,930
这些问题大多是偶发性情况

562
00:17:20,930 --> 00:17:22,779
这家公司前景越来越好

563
00:17:22,779 --> 00:17:24,940
关税问题逐渐明朗

564
00:17:24,940 --> 00:17:25,740
对elf同样如此

565
00:17:25,740 --> 00:17:28,289
这真是重大利好消息

566
00:17:28,289 --> 00:17:31,170
电话会议是最重要的环节

567
00:17:31,170 --> 00:17:32,849
因为它会详细说明

568
00:17:32,849 --> 00:17:34,279
公司实际运营状况

569
00:17:34,279 --> 00:17:35,319
所以我听取电话会议

570
00:17:35,319 --> 00:17:39,180
第一次在thousandx.com上收听实时电话会议

571
00:17:39,180 --> 00:17:39,920
如果你还不知道的话

572
00:17:39,920 --> 00:17:41,559
我们可以收听电话会议

573
00:17:41,559 --> 00:17:43,638
实时在xbox.com进行

574
00:17:43,638 --> 00:17:44,538
这太令人兴奋了

575
00:17:44,538 --> 00:17:45,318
这太酷了

576
00:17:45,318 --> 00:17:47,829
好的，我也在持续发布信息

577
00:17:47,829 --> 00:17:50,789
我们都在我的股票小组里讨论elf

578
00:17:50,789 --> 00:17:51,589
随着财报发布

579
00:17:51,589 --> 00:17:53,339
以及相关情况

580
00:17:53,339 --> 00:17:53,539
核心内容是

581
00:17:53,539 --> 00:17:55,500
我说这次电话会议非常出色

582
00:17:55,500 --> 00:17:56,559
问题都很棒

583
00:17:56,559 --> 00:17:56,920
被提出

584
00:17:56,920 --> 00:17:57,920
比如棘手的问题

585
00:17:57,920 --> 00:17:58,259
比如

586
00:17:58,259 --> 00:17:59,299
非常详细

587
00:17:59,299 --> 00:18:02,269
深入细致的问题

588
00:18:02,269 --> 00:18:05,048
CEO给出了详尽回答

589
00:18:05,048 --> 00:18:05,969
就是这样

590
00:18:05,969 --> 00:18:06,729
他堪称顶尖

591
00:18:06,729 --> 00:18:08,169
小盘股公司的CEO

592
00:18:08,169 --> 00:18:11,519
记住elf此次财报时市值约三亿美元

593
00:18:11,519 --> 00:18:14,509
或者接近三亿美元市值的地形就像

594
00:18:14,509 --> 00:18:16,549
你会觉得他像是某个公司的CEO

595
00:18:16,549 --> 00:18:18,970
你知道是一家市值一万亿的公司

596
00:18:18,970 --> 00:18:20,410
他随时准备回答任何问题

597
00:18:20,410 --> 00:18:21,309
你随便扔给他

598
00:18:21,309 --> 00:18:21,789
我是说

599
00:18:21,789 --> 00:18:22,029
说实话

600
00:18:22,029 --> 00:18:24,829
他对这些问题的准备程度甚至超过扎克伯格

601
00:18:24,829 --> 00:18:26,250
我美丽的扎克伯格

602
00:18:26,250 --> 00:18:29,888
好吧，折磨确实比扎克准备更充分

603
00:18:29,888 --> 00:18:30,929
比如我听扎克

604
00:18:30,929 --> 00:18:31,808
有时候在电话会议中

605
00:18:31,808 --> 00:18:32,868
我就想天啊

606
00:18:32,868 --> 00:18:34,249
你连怎么回答问题都不知道吗

607
00:18:34,249 --> 00:18:37,759
他给出的回答总是模棱两可

608
00:18:37,759 --> 00:18:40,160
这也是为什么梅的股价不到一千美元

609
00:18:40,160 --> 00:18:41,039
这应该是对的

610
00:18:41,039 --> 00:18:43,490
这也是为什么它表现这么差

611
00:18:43,490 --> 00:18:45,029
现在才六百多美元

612
00:18:45,029 --> 00:18:46,849
没错因为他根本就不知道如何

613
00:18:46,849 --> 00:18:47,990
深入回答这些问题

614
00:18:47,990 --> 00:18:49,699
地形被问到一个问题

615
00:18:49,699 --> 00:18:51,278
他立刻深入分析

616
00:18:51,278 --> 00:18:53,199
他从不措手不及

617
00:18:53,199 --> 00:18:54,338
他切入数据指标

618
00:18:54,338 --> 00:18:55,338
这就是我们看到这种情况的原因

619
00:18:55,338 --> 00:18:56,098
他们被问及

620
00:18:56,098 --> 00:18:57,500
具体金额

621
00:18:57,500 --> 00:18:57,819
比如

622
00:18:57,819 --> 00:18:58,599
为什么他们会

623
00:18:58,599 --> 00:18:59,220
你知道的

624
00:18:59,220 --> 00:19:01,279
降低某些产品的价格

625
00:19:01,279 --> 00:19:02,500
他们销售的产品

626
00:19:02,500 --> 00:19:03,539
他解释道

627
00:19:03,539 --> 00:19:04,240
我们进行了测试

628
00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:04,799
结果提升了四十

629
00:19:04,799 --> 00:19:08,420
你知道这款产品价格从18美元降到14美元

630
00:19:08,420 --> 00:19:11,759
销量却增长了40%

631
00:19:11,759 --> 00:19:13,599
这些回答简直太棒了

632
00:19:13,599 --> 00:19:15,480
这家伙随时准备大干一场

633
00:19:15,480 --> 00:19:17,460
他能应对极其棘手的问题

634
00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:18,960
他完全准备好了

635
00:19:18,960 --> 00:19:20,940
他不会让你感到

636
00:19:20,940 --> 00:19:21,519
措手不及

637
00:19:21,519 --> 00:19:22,420
和很多CEO不同

638
00:19:22,420 --> 00:19:23,480
对吧嗯

639
00:19:23,480 --> 00:19:24,200
你知道的

640
00:19:24,200 --> 00:19:25,000
当我开始买入这只股票时

641
00:19:25,000 --> 00:19:26,079
它才七美元一股

642
00:19:26,079 --> 00:19:28,680
难怪这些年表现这么出色

643
00:19:28,680 --> 00:19:30,859
对，关于我们在这方面还有很长的路要走

644
00:19:30,859 --> 00:19:33,490
我说我不会感到意外

645
00:19:33,490 --> 00:19:37,819
或者说如果Elf明天不涨10%到20%，我会感到惊讶

646
00:19:37,819 --> 00:19:40,420
我说这对长期持有者来说无关紧要

647
00:19:40,420 --> 00:19:40,880
但确实

648
00:19:40,880 --> 00:19:42,599
就像我现在的感受一样

649
00:19:42,599 --> 00:19:43,420
我不会感到意外

650
00:19:43,420 --> 00:19:45,940
如果L明天涨10%或20%

651
00:19:45,940 --> 00:19:48,039
这与我的持仓无关

652
00:19:48,039 --> 00:19:49,779
因为如果Else明天涨20%

653
00:19:49,779 --> 00:19:50,700
我不会卖出股票

654
00:19:50,700 --> 00:19:51,000
总之

655
00:19:51,000 --> 00:19:52,099
我长期持有

656
00:19:52,099 --> 00:19:54,019
但完全不会感到意外

657
00:19:54,019 --> 00:19:55,109
好的 不

658
00:19:55,109 --> 00:19:57,029
会议上发生了一些重要事情

659
00:19:57,029 --> 00:19:57,949
电话会议一

660
00:19:57,949 --> 00:19:59,269
他们讨论了创新

661
00:19:59,269 --> 00:20:01,949
今年下半年将有重大创新推出

662
00:20:01,949 --> 00:20:03,108
他们提到的创新内容

663
00:20:03,108 --> 00:20:05,489
这甚至未被纳入预期

664
00:20:05,808 --> 00:20:06,729
这太重大了

665
00:20:06,729 --> 00:20:07,288
就像我心想

666
00:20:07,288 --> 00:20:09,148
难道只有我听到这个吗

667
00:20:09,148 --> 00:20:09,849
呃

668
00:20:09,849 --> 00:20:10,670
这是什么意思

669
00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:11,730
作为投资者

670
00:20:11,730 --> 00:20:12,289
你应该明白

671
00:20:12,289 --> 00:20:14,569
如果他们下半年即将推出的创新

672
00:20:14,569 --> 00:20:15,690
甚至未被纳入预期

673
00:20:15,690 --> 00:20:19,589
这意味着营收增长可能大幅上行

674
00:20:19,589 --> 00:20:22,519
所以你听到12%到14%的讨论

675
00:20:22,759 --> 00:20:23,799
这就是我说的

676
00:20:23,799 --> 00:20:26,299
我说这份指引像枕头一样软

677
00:20:26,299 --> 00:20:27,299
枕头软

678
00:20:27,299 --> 00:20:28,400
我说这太棒了

679
00:20:28,400 --> 00:20:31,058
简单来说

680
00:20:31,058 --> 00:20:31,838
听起来像是

681
00:20:31,838 --> 00:20:34,479
他们发布的指引基本是悲观情景

682
00:20:34,479 --> 00:20:37,559
就像解读市场信号

683
00:20:37,559 --> 00:20:39,160
这就是结论

684
00:20:39,160 --> 00:20:40,240
关于这次电话会议

685
00:20:40,240 --> 00:20:40,500
我心想

686
00:20:40,500 --> 00:20:41,279
天啊

687
00:20:41,279 --> 00:20:42,480
这太棒了

688
00:20:42,480 --> 00:20:43,740
这就是Elf的做事方式

689
00:20:43,740 --> 00:20:44,440
年复一年

690
00:20:44,440 --> 00:20:44,980
他们会进来

691
00:20:44,980 --> 00:20:47,000
你知道会有糟糕的指引

692
00:20:47,000 --> 00:20:48,059
一些垃圾般的指引

693
00:20:48,059 --> 00:20:49,039
大家都惊慌失措

694
00:20:49,039 --> 00:20:50,400
然后最终发生的事情

695
00:20:50,400 --> 00:20:51,000
更好的数据

696
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:51,559
更好的数据

697
00:20:51,559 --> 00:20:53,000
比所有人预期的更好

698
00:20:53,000 --> 00:20:53,480
而大家纷纷表示

699
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:54,140
哦你知道的

700
00:20:54,140 --> 00:20:54,759
到新的一年

701
00:20:54,759 --> 00:20:57,130
大家又对这只股票充满期待

702
00:20:57,130 --> 00:21:00,609
所以我认为明天股价将回升至百元

703
00:21:00,609 --> 00:21:02,690
明天开始上涨对吧

704
00:21:02,690 --> 00:21:04,690
最终我认为我要展示的这只股票

705
00:21:04,690 --> 00:21:06,890
稍后我会展示我对ELF的预测

706
00:21:06,890 --> 00:21:08,549
我觉得股价会涨得远超百元

707
00:21:08,549 --> 00:21:11,079
但明天将回升至百元以上

708
00:21:11,079 --> 00:21:14,130
记住股价的最低点在哪里

709
00:21:14,170 --> 00:21:16,029
去年四月

710
00:21:16,029 --> 00:21:16,849
去年四月

711
00:21:16,849 --> 00:21:19,589
股价在四十九到五十美元附近见底

712
00:21:19,589 --> 00:21:21,470
而今天在这次财报中

713
00:21:21,470 --> 00:21:23,179
你们正在进入财报期

714
00:21:23,179 --> 00:21:25,499
猜猜它曾跌至五十美元

715
00:21:25,499 --> 00:21:26,818
这不是很有趣吗

716
00:21:26,818 --> 00:21:28,109
所以啊

717
00:21:28,109 --> 00:21:28,390
我是说

718
00:21:28,390 --> 00:21:30,109
谁知道明天股票会怎样

719
00:21:30,109 --> 00:21:33,660
开盘时可能会有大量买入

720
00:21:33,660 --> 00:21:35,059
然后全天持续买入

721
00:21:35,059 --> 00:21:35,859
我不会感到意外

722
00:21:35,859 --> 00:21:38,140
股价可能上涨10%到20%

723
00:21:38,140 --> 00:21:39,680
市值三亿美元

724
00:21:39,680 --> 00:21:40,019
现在

725
00:21:40,019 --> 00:21:41,839
这不是一个大市值公司

726
00:21:41,839 --> 00:21:42,819
如果你只是

727
00:21:42,819 --> 00:21:43,299
你知道的

728
00:21:43,299 --> 00:21:45,440
我不认为有人会真的说

729
00:21:45,440 --> 00:21:46,599
我得卖掉我的ELF

730
00:21:46,599 --> 00:21:49,200
当然总会有一定数量的卖家

731
00:21:49,200 --> 00:21:52,079
但我认为买盘压力将持续强劲

732
00:21:52,079 --> 00:21:55,609
我认为股价将回升至百元以上

733
00:21:55,609 --> 00:21:59,880
接下来几个月我会继续增持VALVE股票

734
00:21:59,880 --> 00:22:01,619
我如何看待ELF

735
00:22:01,619 --> 00:22:02,720
低于百元的价格

736
00:22:02,720 --> 00:22:03,660
就是捡便宜

737
00:22:03,660 --> 00:22:05,319
五十美元啊兄弟

738
00:22:05,319 --> 00:22:07,660
这就是我今天没买七万美元的原因

739
00:22:07,660 --> 00:22:08,380
深陷其中

740
00:22:08,380 --> 00:22:10,019
股票可能明天上涨20%

741
00:22:10,019 --> 00:22:11,940
周五我可能还会继续买入

742
00:22:11,940 --> 00:22:14,779
更可能持续增持股份

743
00:22:14,779 --> 00:22:15,349
低靠椅

744
00:22:15,349 --> 00:22:17,190
我相信elf是一家长期发展的公司

745
00:22:17,190 --> 00:22:19,579
市值将达到数十亿美元

746
00:22:19,579 --> 00:22:22,079
而像三亿美元市值或以下的这类公司

747
00:22:22,079 --> 00:22:22,720
兄弟，这太简单了

748
00:22:22,720 --> 00:22:23,460
轻松搞定

749
00:22:23,460 --> 00:22:23,740
柠檬

750
00:22:23,740 --> 00:22:24,059
挤一挤

751
00:22:24,059 --> 00:22:24,619
你得翻转过来

752
00:22:24,619 --> 00:22:25,380
我这儿的松饼

753
00:22:25,380 --> 00:22:26,200
好的

754
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:28,240
这家公司就像elf

755
00:22:28,240 --> 00:22:31,490
你知道很多人只关注非常短期的

756
00:22:31,490 --> 00:22:32,670
今年的每股收益

757
00:22:32,670 --> 00:22:33,809
这个季度的具体情况

758
00:22:33,809 --> 00:22:35,210
或者这个的毛利率

759
00:22:35,210 --> 00:22:36,210
这个季度的具体情况

760
00:22:36,210 --> 00:22:39,349
比如是否进入足够多的门店等等

761
00:22:39,349 --> 00:22:39,730
比如

762
00:22:39,730 --> 00:22:42,769
关注elf品牌的长期市场机会

763
00:22:42,769 --> 00:22:44,940
在elf品牌之间

764
00:22:44,940 --> 00:22:46,559
与Notorium Road

765
00:22:46,559 --> 00:22:49,599
Feather品牌及其他未来可能收购的品牌

766
00:22:49,599 --> 00:22:51,509
这里潜力巨大

767
00:22:51,509 --> 00:22:54,069
他们不断推出创新产品

768
00:22:54,069 --> 00:22:57,230
这些最终会成为他们长期的重要资产

769
00:22:57,230 --> 00:23:00,048
所以我专注于长期发展

770
00:23:00,048 --> 00:23:01,229
我喜欢看到成果

771
00:23:01,229 --> 00:23:02,108
听财报电话会

772
00:23:02,108 --> 00:23:04,368
确保把握公司长期发展趋势

773
00:23:04,368 --> 00:23:06,299
当我听取财报电话会时

774
00:23:06,299 --> 00:23:08,819
离开时感觉一切稳固

775
00:23:08,819 --> 00:23:09,460
从长期来看

776
00:23:09,460 --> 00:23:14,059
我的公司前景美好，所以不要过于纠结

777
00:23:14,059 --> 00:23:14,480
你知道的

778
00:23:14,480 --> 00:23:15,220
非常短期的波动

779
00:23:15,220 --> 00:23:16,599
这是什么，那是什么

780
00:23:16,599 --> 00:23:18,220
关注优质公司的长期发展

781
00:23:18,220 --> 00:23:19,140
这就是你应该做的

782
00:23:19,140 --> 00:23:20,960
作为长期投资者必须这样做

783
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,160
没错，记住这一点

784
00:23:23,160 --> 00:23:23,579
现在

785
00:23:23,579 --> 00:23:25,900
这是我为elf的预测

786
00:23:25,900 --> 00:23:28,079
从那次电话会后

787
00:23:28,079 --> 00:23:29,200
没有那种感觉

788
00:23:29,200 --> 00:23:32,150
需要大幅调整elf股票预测

789
00:23:32,150 --> 00:23:35,430
我的基准案是平均15%的营收增长

790
00:23:35,430 --> 00:23:37,509
记住在本财年期间

791
00:23:37,509 --> 00:23:38,769
他们可能意味着

792
00:23:38,769 --> 00:23:39,779
基于这些信息

793
00:23:39,779 --> 00:23:43,539
那个指南针是多么柔软，而他们具备巨大的潜力

794
00:23:43,539 --> 00:23:44,680
如果不出意外的话

795
00:23:44,680 --> 00:23:48,430
如果本财年收入增长达到二十多%

796
00:23:48,430 --> 00:23:48,829
他们正处于

797
00:23:48,829 --> 00:23:49,950
但从我的基准预测

798
00:23:49,950 --> 00:23:50,789
我将他们的估值大幅调低

799
00:23:50,789 --> 00:23:54,349
我平均每年给予15%的年增长率

800
00:23:54,349 --> 00:23:54,750
没错

801
00:23:54,750 --> 00:23:55,569
净利润增长率

802
00:23:55,569 --> 00:23:56,630
平均20%的增长

803
00:23:56,630 --> 00:23:58,369
净利润率正在提升

804
00:23:58,369 --> 00:23:58,569
达到20%

805
00:23:58,569 --> 00:23:59,809
从12%提升到30%

806
00:23:59,809 --> 00:24:00,529
如果你在增长

807
00:24:00,529 --> 00:24:00,970
呃

808
00:24:00,970 --> 00:24:03,289
你知道对于化妆品公司来说，15%的营收增长

809
00:24:03,289 --> 00:24:04,500
20%的净利润增长

810
00:24:04,500 --> 00:24:05,420
30%到35%

811
00:24:05,420 --> 00:24:07,000
这样的市盈率对这家公司很合理

812
00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:08,299
我们正在讨论

813
00:24:08,299 --> 00:24:10,619
40%的复合年增长率

814
00:24:10,900 --> 00:24:12,900
记住巴菲特成为传奇

815
00:24:12,900 --> 00:24:17,180
因为他能实现20%的复合增长率

816
00:24:17,180 --> 00:24:19,240
我认为未来几年会翻倍增长

817
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:20,099
我可能错了

818
00:24:20,099 --> 00:24:21,299
我之前也犯过错

819
00:24:21,299 --> 00:24:22,819
我不认为自己会错

820
00:24:22,819 --> 00:24:27,849
所以记住这一点，最终elf的发展方向

821
00:24:27,849 --> 00:24:28,509
在我看来

822
00:24:28,509 --> 00:24:29,109
20-30%

823
00:24:29,109 --> 00:24:31,009
这是一只200美元以上的股票

824
00:24:31,009 --> 00:24:33,119
200美元以上的股票

825
00:24:33,119 --> 00:24:36,799
关键在于它何时突破200美元

826
00:24:36,799 --> 00:24:37,339
没错

827
00:24:37,339 --> 00:24:40,440
我对公司的乐观预测是20%的营收平均增长

828
00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,299
30%的净利润平均增长

829
00:24:42,299 --> 00:24:46,700
在乐观假设下，净利润率可达14%

830
00:24:46,700 --> 00:24:47,700
20%的营收增长

831
00:24:47,700 --> 00:24:48,599
30%的净利润增长

832
00:24:48,599 --> 00:24:50,099
35-40倍市盈率

833
00:24:50,099 --> 00:24:51,250
非常合理

834
00:24:51,569 --> 00:24:54,569
我认为我们谈论的是60%以上的复合增长率

835
00:24:54,569 --> 00:24:55,869
这简直令人难以置信

836
00:24:55,869 --> 00:24:59,670
elf on a shelf是绝佳机会

837
00:24:59,670 --> 00:25:00,190
请记住

838
00:25:00,190 --> 00:25:01,470
他们可能会回购大量股票

839
00:25:01,470 --> 00:25:02,849
我的猜测是未来四到五年

840
00:25:02,849 --> 00:25:04,529
除非收购其他品牌

841
00:25:04,529 --> 00:25:06,109
他们通常会这么做

842
00:25:06,109 --> 00:25:07,970
所以elis先生

843
00:25:07,970 --> 00:25:08,730
一切完好无损

844
00:25:08,730 --> 00:25:09,769
我的天啊

845
00:25:09,769 --> 00:25:13,888
这是我能在小盘股市场找到的最佳机会之一

846
00:25:13,888 --> 00:25:15,249
这是目前最好的之一

847
00:25:15,249 --> 00:25:15,689
没错

848
00:25:15,689 --> 00:25:19,029
关税问题和那部恐怖电影剧情一样

849
00:25:19,029 --> 00:25:20,990
所有这些都是短期杂事兄弟

850
00:25:20,990 --> 00:25:22,309
我专注于股票基本面

851
00:25:22,309 --> 00:25:23,809
这只股票将涨至两百多美元

852
00:25:23,809 --> 00:25:24,710
二十年后股价

853
00:25:24,710 --> 00:25:26,119
这就是我的看法对吧

854
00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:28,720
超级巨大的五倍英伟达

855
00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:30,140
这对英伟达意味着什么

856
00:25:30,140 --> 00:25:31,900
这对AMD意味着什么

857
00:25:31,900 --> 00:25:33,299
整个股市

858
00:25:33,299 --> 00:25:34,299
各种情况

859
00:25:34,299 --> 00:25:34,740
好的

860
00:25:34,740 --> 00:25:37,559
AMD完成任务了

861
00:25:37,559 --> 00:25:39,099
营收达到八十一点

862
00:25:39,099 --> 00:25:40,059
六亿美元

863
00:25:40,059 --> 00:25:41,599
七十二点或七十九点

864
00:25:41,599 --> 00:25:42,259
预期是两

865
00:25:42,259 --> 00:25:45,000
每股收益1.85美元 vs 预期1.78美元

866
00:25:45,000 --> 00:25:45,559
没错

867
00:25:45,559 --> 00:25:47,779
数据中心业务毛利率符合预期

868
00:25:47,779 --> 00:25:50,039
二季度指引超出华尔街预期

869
00:25:50,039 --> 00:25:53,299
这也符合私下预测

870
00:25:53,299 --> 00:25:55,329
如果谈到股价

871
00:25:55,329 --> 00:25:57,029
他们确实有大幅上涨

872
00:25:57,029 --> 00:25:59,009
私下预测数字很重要

873
00:25:59,009 --> 00:26:01,859
大家都知道这是920亿美元

874
00:26:01,859 --> 00:26:03,940
为了真正激发热情

875
00:26:03,940 --> 00:26:07,440
需要达到当前的920亿美元

876
00:26:07,440 --> 00:26:08,140
请记住

877
00:26:08,140 --> 00:26:11,660
最终可能做到920亿或930亿

878
00:26:11,660 --> 00:26:12,940
实际数据公布时

879
00:26:12,940 --> 00:26:14,880
通常会超出几亿美元

880
00:26:14,880 --> 00:26:16,140
好的所以

881
00:26:16,140 --> 00:26:18,400
但人们想要920亿美元指引

882
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:21,460
这意味着现在可能做到4950亿美元

883
00:26:21,460 --> 00:26:23,660
这些都是大家陷入的短期杂事

884
00:26:23,660 --> 00:26:25,420
但这就是华尔街的游戏

885
00:26:25,420 --> 00:26:25,910
好的

886
00:26:25,910 --> 00:26:30,019
毛利率约75%左右

887
00:26:30,019 --> 00:26:31,680
没错你看这些

888
00:26:31,680 --> 00:26:32,440
然后你就会说兄弟

889
00:26:32,440 --> 00:26:33,559
这些数据太棒了

890
00:26:33,559 --> 00:26:36,599
他们全面超预期但股价跌1%

891
00:26:36,599 --> 00:26:37,400
太残酷了对吧

892
00:26:37,400 --> 00:26:41,119
这就是华尔街的游戏在英伟达身上

893
00:26:41,119 --> 00:26:42,839
你也知道这已经被高估了

894
00:26:42,839 --> 00:26:46,220
这家公司的市值超过五万亿美元

895
00:26:46,220 --> 00:26:47,119
不像那些

896
00:26:47,119 --> 00:26:49,740
你知道有些被严重打压的股票

897
00:26:49,740 --> 00:26:51,200
你知道这种垃圾估值

898
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,059
就像股票被高估了一样

899
00:26:53,059 --> 00:26:55,119
没错，所以需要

900
00:26:55,119 --> 00:26:57,039
这就是我一直在反复向人们解释的

901
00:26:57,039 --> 00:26:58,119
关于英伟达

902
00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,670
需要付出巨大努力才能让人兴奋

903
00:27:01,670 --> 00:27:03,029
华尔街会兴奋地宣称

904
00:27:03,029 --> 00:27:04,509
我要去买英伟达股票

905
00:27:04,509 --> 00:27:04,890
重仓持有

906
00:27:04,890 --> 00:27:06,430
需要付出太多

907
00:27:06,430 --> 00:27:09,289
他们甚至能发布惊人数据

908
00:27:09,289 --> 00:27:15,729
人们因为英伟达的兴奋期已经过去

909
00:27:15,729 --> 00:27:20,299
兴奋期是他们首次大幅超预期时

910
00:27:20,299 --> 00:27:20,900
人们会说

911
00:27:20,900 --> 00:27:21,539
天啊

912
00:27:21,539 --> 00:27:23,019
那真是令人兴奋的阶段

913
00:27:23,019 --> 00:27:24,859
这些令人震惊的数据

914
00:27:24,859 --> 00:27:25,779
每个季度

915
00:27:25,779 --> 00:27:26,759
现在他们公布

916
00:27:26,759 --> 00:27:28,380
超出预期两亿美元左右

917
00:27:28,380 --> 00:27:28,940
人们会说

918
00:27:28,940 --> 00:27:29,289
是啊

919
00:27:29,289 --> 00:27:30,829
超出指引一百亿美元

920
00:27:30,829 --> 00:27:31,789
几亿美元

921
00:27:31,789 --> 00:27:32,250
嗯

922
00:27:32,250 --> 00:27:32,730
你知道的

923
00:27:32,730 --> 00:27:34,619
现在这就是预期

924
00:27:34,619 --> 00:27:35,980
所以你知道

925
00:27:35,980 --> 00:27:37,339
回溯到2022年

926
00:27:37,339 --> 00:27:38,920
英伟达业绩非常糟糕

927
00:27:38,920 --> 00:27:40,819
股价从高点暴跌50%

928
00:27:40,819 --> 00:27:45,000
从2021年四季度峰值到2022年四季度低谷

929
00:27:45,000 --> 00:27:45,740
没错，关键点

930
00:27:45,740 --> 00:27:46,940
你了解华尔街的游戏规则

931
00:27:46,940 --> 00:27:48,470
当时财报数据很糟糕

932
00:27:48,470 --> 00:27:50,750
随后经历惊人的复苏

933
00:27:50,750 --> 00:27:53,039
业务突然爆发

934
00:27:53,039 --> 00:27:57,779
就像从没人关注的差生

935
00:27:57,779 --> 00:27:58,279
突然之间

936
00:27:58,279 --> 00:28:00,630
他们变成了优等生

937
00:28:00,630 --> 00:28:02,710
现在他们已是优等生

938
00:28:02,710 --> 00:28:04,819
这就是我们对英伟达的预期

939
00:28:04,819 --> 00:28:06,740
现在没人再兴奋了

940
00:28:06,740 --> 00:28:09,039
当学生从差生变成优等生时

941
00:28:09,039 --> 00:28:10,240
所有人都为之疯狂

942
00:28:10,240 --> 00:28:10,519
他们就像

943
00:28:10,519 --> 00:28:11,079
天啊

944
00:28:11,079 --> 00:28:11,799
他们没在得

945
00:28:11,799 --> 00:28:12,880
他们是c级学生

946
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:13,779
他们是b级学生

947
00:28:13,779 --> 00:28:14,480
天啊

948
00:28:14,480 --> 00:28:14,779
他们

949
00:28:14,779 --> 00:28:15,160
他们

950
00:28:15,160 --> 00:28:16,700
他们是班里最优秀的学生之一

951
00:28:16,700 --> 00:28:17,799
你知道全美国

952
00:28:17,799 --> 00:28:18,519
他们太棒了

953
00:28:18,519 --> 00:28:20,119
但一旦成为那样的

954
00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:23,469
现在我们期望标准极高

955
00:28:23,469 --> 00:28:24,429
你明白的

956
00:28:24,429 --> 00:28:25,469
这就是生活

957
00:28:25,469 --> 00:28:26,669
这就是事实

958
00:28:26,669 --> 00:28:28,369
你知道这就是事实

959
00:28:28,369 --> 00:28:31,130
关于他们在年级中的表现

960
00:28:31,130 --> 00:28:32,490
就像他们在顶尖行列

961
00:28:32,490 --> 00:28:34,250
这是最高成绩

962
00:28:34,250 --> 00:28:36,950
在我的评分体系中这是最高分

963
00:28:36,950 --> 00:28:37,329
比如

964
00:28:37,329 --> 00:28:39,670
这仅限于最特殊的企业

965
00:28:39,670 --> 00:28:41,659
报告数据惊人

966
00:28:41,659 --> 00:28:43,538
营收增长85%

967
00:28:43,538 --> 00:28:44,199
收入成本

968
00:28:44,199 --> 00:28:45,798
仅增长18%

969
00:28:45,798 --> 00:28:47,759
毛利润增长120%

970
00:28:47,759 --> 00:28:48,849
9%

971
00:28:48,849 --> 00:28:49,809
研发费用5%

972
00:28:49,809 --> 00:28:50,690
8%左右

973
00:28:50,690 --> 00:28:51,929
低于毛利润

974
00:28:51,929 --> 00:28:53,888
销售管理费仅2.5%

975
00:28:53,888 --> 00:28:55,568
这对营收增长的公司来说微不足道

976
00:28:55,568 --> 00:28:56,808
毛利润增长129%

977
00:28:56,808 --> 00:28:57,729
总运营费用

978
00:28:57,729 --> 00:28:58,288
仅占5%

979
00:28:58,288 --> 00:29:01,400
运营利润率2%

980
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:02,099
惊人增长

981
00:29:02,099 --> 00:29:06,500
现在飙升至147%

982
00:29:06,500 --> 00:29:08,000
我们还有其他收益

983
00:29:08,000 --> 00:29:09,460
我猜得深入分析一下

984
00:29:09,460 --> 00:29:13,019
我猜可能是对Anthropic的投资

985
00:29:13,019 --> 00:29:13,980
或者我们可能

986
00:29:13,980 --> 00:29:16,900
AI显然这些公司的估值疯涨

987
00:29:16,900 --> 00:29:18,660
所以他们可能有相关投资

988
00:29:18,660 --> 00:29:19,220
他们持有

989
00:29:19,220 --> 00:29:19,579
你知道的

990
00:29:19,579 --> 00:29:19,900
就像

991
00:29:19,900 --> 00:29:22,299
基本上是一次性收益需计入

992
00:29:22,299 --> 00:29:24,779
所以这是会计处理事项

993
00:29:24,779 --> 00:29:27,700
但那里有百分之八千九百五十的涨幅对吧

994
00:29:27,700 --> 00:29:30,150
所以其他收入总计十六亿美元

995
00:29:30,150 --> 00:29:32,390
但不要为此太过兴奋

996
00:29:32,390 --> 00:29:33,650
因为这些波动来去匆匆

997
00:29:33,650 --> 00:29:34,450
请记住这一点

998
00:29:34,450 --> 00:29:35,059
没错

999
00:29:35,059 --> 00:29:37,980
公司净利润增长211%至50亿美元

1000
00:29:37,980 --> 00:29:40,339
杜鲁德每股收益达80亿美元

1001
00:29:40,339 --> 00:29:40,819
增长了多少

1002
00:29:40,819 --> 00:29:42,900
增长215%至239亿美元

1003
00:29:42,900 --> 00:29:44,599
这是A++级别的成绩

1004
00:29:44,599 --> 00:29:47,799
这是公司2027财年第一季度的表现

1005
00:29:47,799 --> 00:29:52,680
英伟达在本季度以创纪录的约200亿美元形式回馈股东

1006
00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:56,170
通过股票回购和现金股息形式

1007
00:29:56,170 --> 00:29:57,710
公司还有另外三

1008
00:29:57,710 --> 00:30:02,150
截至5月18日剩余80亿美元授权回购额度

1009
00:30:02,150 --> 00:30:03,480
就在几天前

1010
00:30:03,480 --> 00:30:06,880
董事会批准额外800亿美元股票回购计划

1011
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,099
这是一个巨大数字

1012
00:30:08,099 --> 00:30:10,619
但对于市值超万亿的公司

1013
00:30:10,619 --> 00:30:11,119
呃

1014
00:30:11,119 --> 00:30:11,359
你知道的

1015
00:30:11,359 --> 00:30:11,799
市值

1016
00:30:11,799 --> 00:30:14,000
实际影响可能没你想的那么大

1017
00:30:14,000 --> 00:30:15,480
他们正在做所有正确的事

1018
00:30:15,480 --> 00:30:15,970
天啊

1019
00:30:15,970 --> 00:30:16,450
我说

1020
00:30:16,450 --> 00:30:17,569
英伟达正在做所有正确的事

1021
00:30:17,569 --> 00:30:19,049
如果你是英伟达股东

1022
00:30:19,049 --> 00:30:22,640
你只能为这支股票感到自豪

1023
00:30:22,640 --> 00:30:23,799
你知道在公司层面

1024
00:30:23,799 --> 00:30:25,319
这些数据简直惊人

1025
00:30:25,319 --> 00:30:26,069
那

1026
00:30:26,069 --> 00:30:26,730
你知道的

1027
00:30:26,730 --> 00:30:28,529
指引数据同样惊人对吧

1028
00:30:28,529 --> 00:30:30,769
他们在股息分配上做得完美

1029
00:30:30,769 --> 00:30:32,750
以及股票回购计划

1030
00:30:32,750 --> 00:30:34,119
他们样样都做

1031
00:30:34,119 --> 00:30:36,460
持有股票无需感到羞愧

1032
00:30:36,460 --> 00:30:37,460
这就是我的看法

1033
00:30:37,460 --> 00:30:38,869
没错

1034
00:30:38,869 --> 00:30:39,509
你知道的

1035
00:30:39,509 --> 00:30:40,549
这对行业意味着什么

1036
00:30:40,549 --> 00:30:42,130
这是好消息对吧 所以明天

1037
00:30:42,130 --> 00:30:43,029
无论发生什么

1038
00:30:43,029 --> 00:30:43,950
无论发生什么

1039
00:30:43,950 --> 00:30:44,190
你知道的

1040
00:30:44,190 --> 00:30:47,430
如果英伟达股价下跌并带动半导体股下跌几个百分点

1041
00:30:47,430 --> 00:30:49,450
大不了就当没发生

1042
00:30:49,450 --> 00:30:51,029
这对AMD影响不大

1043
00:30:51,029 --> 00:30:52,630
除了像这样的好消息之外

1044
00:30:52,630 --> 00:30:56,250
我们只是看看未来几年AMD的潜在机会

1045
00:30:56,250 --> 00:30:58,920
因为你现在已经看到英伟达的情况了

1046
00:30:58,920 --> 00:31:02,240
但我认为AMD不会达到五万亿美元市值

1047
00:31:02,240 --> 00:31:04,440
但我必须达到万亿级市值

1048
00:31:04,440 --> 00:31:07,380
没错，潜在市值可能达到数千亿

1049
00:31:07,380 --> 00:31:12,640
AMD的机会简直巨大无比

1050
00:31:12,640 --> 00:31:13,400
记住这一点

1051
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:13,970
没错

1052
00:31:13,970 --> 00:31:14,369
不

1053
00:31:14,369 --> 00:31:15,450
所有财报都在陆续发布

1054
00:31:15,450 --> 00:31:16,390
所有这些疯狂的事情

1055
00:31:16,390 --> 00:31:18,329
所有这些混乱局面

1056
00:31:18,329 --> 00:31:20,769
记住我常强调的那些要点

1057
00:31:20,769 --> 00:31:21,130
你们

1058
00:31:21,130 --> 00:31:21,970
构建投资组合

1059
00:31:21,970 --> 00:31:23,259
多年后你会为自己骄傲

1060
00:31:23,259 --> 00:31:25,700
不要只关注这些公司的短期数据

1061
00:31:25,700 --> 00:31:29,079
确保长期趋势，打造值得骄傲的投资组合

1062
00:31:29,079 --> 00:31:30,079
不仅仅今天

1063
00:31:30,079 --> 00:31:31,759
保持多元化作为你的策略

1064
00:31:31,759 --> 00:31:32,799
长期来看

1065
00:31:32,799 --> 00:31:35,480
太多人过度集中投资一两支股票

1066
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,859
持有成长股、价值股和分红股

1067
00:31:37,859 --> 00:31:39,420
留点现金在身边

1068
00:31:39,420 --> 00:31:41,099
参加财报电话会是必须的

1069
00:31:41,099 --> 00:31:43,500
如果你关心半导体行业

1070
00:31:43,500 --> 00:31:45,409
务必收听英伟达的财报电话会

1071
00:31:45,409 --> 00:31:46,848
如果你关注ELF

1072
00:31:46,848 --> 00:31:47,888
务必参加财报电话会

1073
00:31:47,888 --> 00:31:48,608
这太棒了

1074
00:31:48,608 --> 00:31:50,489
你可以通过thousandxstocks.com全程参与

1075
00:31:50,489 --> 00:31:51,808
了解公司财务状况

1076
00:31:51,808 --> 00:31:53,839
自己分析这些损益表

1077
00:31:53,839 --> 00:31:55,599
掌握股票指标，关注未来数据

1078
00:31:55,599 --> 00:31:56,640
评估这些股票

1079
00:31:56,640 --> 00:31:57,180
针对未来

1080
00:31:57,180 --> 00:31:58,759
P值显示潜力

1081
00:31:58,759 --> 00:32:00,150
正确运行你的预测模型

1082
00:32:00,150 --> 00:32:01,329
我再完善一下

1083
00:32:01,329 --> 00:32:02,079
逢低买入

1084
00:32:02,079 --> 00:32:02,779
永不踏空

1085
00:32:02,779 --> 00:32:04,640
女士们先生们关于逢低操作

1086
00:32:04,640 --> 00:32:05,740
我们即将迎来大幅促销

1087
00:32:05,740 --> 00:32:07,839
金级会员即将开启特惠

1088
00:32:07,839 --> 00:32:09,880
这是Patreon的最高会员等级

1089
00:32:09,880 --> 00:32:12,440
将是一日四九一折特卖

1090
00:32:12,440 --> 00:32:13,319
此活动将被置顶

1091
00:32:13,319 --> 00:32:13,519
留言互动

1092
00:32:13,519 --> 00:32:14,480
准备好迎接这次促销

1093
00:32:14,480 --> 00:32:16,519
我不知道我是否还会做一个退伍军人节视频

1094
00:32:16,519 --> 00:32:17,359
所以如果你想参加这个促销活动

1095
00:32:17,359 --> 00:32:18,589
你必须加入我们的名单

1096
00:32:18,589 --> 00:32:19,710
好的，再说一次

1097
00:32:19,710 --> 00:32:21,869
那就是下面置顶的评论

1098
00:32:21,869 --> 00:32:23,640
送上满满的爱意，祝你度过美好一天

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