【The Motley Fool】AI急需内存！美光处于“正确的时间和位置”吗？

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欢迎最新杂牌完整积分榜

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我正按计划进行，我们遇到了长期的傻瓜

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托比·博德隆和里克·米纳雷斯

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为初选隐藏宝石数据库中前两百名股票打1到10分

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这是微芯科技股票代码MU

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我们先谈谈微芯业务的实力

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包括行业和竞争因素

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十分意味着无敌

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一分意味着无望

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里克给了7分托比

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你给了8分

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是啊

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这个行业现在很火热

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因为人工智能和数据中心很热门

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这正在推动内存市场的供应短缺

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微芯恰逢其时

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时机正好

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呃

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这对他们来说太好了

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他们处于有利位置

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呃

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他们在内存领域面临大量竞争对手

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进入壁垒相对较高

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但最终

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产品似乎属于大宗商品

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他们的定价权本质上是供应有限的结果

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需求高时表现很好

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需求稍降时定价权突然消失

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定价权随之消失

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这就是我不会更高估的原因

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是的

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内存和存储解决方案如今从未如此受欢迎

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不再仅限于电脑、相机或游戏设备

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它存在于你的手机中

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你的汽车里

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智能家居中

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数据中心里

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成为AI革命的基石

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这些应用领域在增长

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工业领域对内存和存储解决方案的需求

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微芯并非孤军奋战

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当然

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但公司年营收达42亿美元

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具备规模经济

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公司总部位于博伊西

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爱达荷州加分

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这让我多得几分

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我采纳了管理层的7分

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十分是沃伦·巴菲特

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一分是霍默·辛普森

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你们俩都有托比的帮助

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是的

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我要给予认可

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这里该给谁功劳

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看

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这并不是世界上最难经营的生意

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我不认为

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但周期性挑战确实存在

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首席执行官

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桑贾伊和梅罗特拉干得很好

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成功定位兆芯以取得成功

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他是该领域的专家

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他知道自己在做什么

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在他的任期内我们看到的回报无可争议

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是的

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所以看

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奥塔不是老一辈的翻版

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他就是老一辈

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他从八十年代就投身这个行业

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作为闪迪的联合创始人

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后来转任兆芯总裁

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呃

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2017年春季

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在默拉塔手下

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股票涨幅15倍且掌舵近九年

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呃

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这真是了不起的工作

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财务方面做得很好

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十分稳固

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一分吓人

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瑞克给六分托比

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你是七分

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是的

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现在营收规模如此庞大

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马丁们越来越强

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上季度创纪录自由现金流

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这与周期阶段有关

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我不认为这会是常态

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我们看到的未必如此

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这个行业涉及巨额资本投入

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必须管理好资产负债表

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兆芯能度过周期

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但业务周期性存在风险

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是的

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我在六分位九年同期

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股票在默拉塔领导下涨15倍

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营收仅增长三倍

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真正的核心在于提升利润率

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也可以说兆芯的周期性更强

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近年来在繁荣期中

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仍有起伏波动

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但马克在过去五个财年中有四个实现了两位数的营收增长

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其现金储备略多于长期资产负债表

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因此具备应对过山车行情的实力

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请系好安全带

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虽然这样啊

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现在进入评估环节

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短期看似安全

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如同购买彩票

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是的

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因此我对五年内66分的回报率预期在5%至10%之间

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当前估值可能略显 stretched

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但过去一年股价已翻四倍

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必须停止自我审视

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直面前方挡风玻璃

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嗯

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未来两年的盈利目标仅数月内已翻倍

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美光市盈率接近40倍

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但前瞻市盈率仅12倍

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及23财年10倍

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2023年净利润

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安全评级我只能给6分

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因低估值可能瞬间消失或挡风玻璃破裂

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如果这样说的话

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若下一轮周期性衰退来临

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下一轮周期性衰退必然到来

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是的

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我在此设定10%至15%区间

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倾向于该区间的下限

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本想设定更高

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但实在难以做到

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基于上述原因

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瑞克所讨论的

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市场已充满乐观情绪

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我认为这不可持续

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高于瑞克预期回报的另一面

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我在安全评级上略低于他

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我给出5分

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当市场如此波动时

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确实看起来

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他们正享受不可持续的高点

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目前而言

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公司业务并无风险

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我指美光不会消失

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他们生产必需品

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但股东短期可能面临风险

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长期来看

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我认为有望跑赢市场

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但看到这只股票在短期内大幅下跌我也不会感到意外

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当周期发生变化时

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感谢托比和瑞克

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他们给美光科技打了六分的总体评价

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以十分制计算为8分的顶级评分

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瑞克更偏好纯存储领域

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每个交易日七点关注新排行榜

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东部时间

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接下来是西数科技

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在此之前全力关注

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1977年是它不在迈阿密的最后一年

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如果你想回看的话

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这件事一夜之间发生了

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仿佛还没完全落地

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但那天我在学校记得很清楚

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我们有一所

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我们从未有过雪假

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所以我们都在上学

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我们都在盯着窗外

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啊

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要下雪了

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当时气温在40到50度之间

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那时根本不会下雪

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不过就是这样

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