【The Motley Fool】狂跌40%！估值仅20倍，巴菲特式好公司，为何今年成了大熊股？

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欢迎最新混搭组合

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完整排行榜

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我上线了，chaand

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我们有长期的笨蛋

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特拉维斯

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霍亚姆和马特·弗兰克尔

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为隐藏股数据库前两百名股票打1到10分评级

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现在是服务时刻

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股票代码现在首推

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我们将评估ServiceNow的实力

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业务包括行业和竞争等因素

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十分是无敌的

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一分是毫无希望的

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特拉维斯是五分马特

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你稍微聪明一点

16
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在七分

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是的

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我是说

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他们是全球领先的企业工作流自动化AI平台

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大多数财富

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五百强都是他们的客户

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他们深度融入客户业务

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并努力重新定位AI领域

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但存在重大AI颠覆风险

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特拉维斯肯定会谈到

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存在一些竞争

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但这不是我看到的主要风险

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是的

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让我们

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从你开始的地方讲起

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企业工作流自动化和AI平台听起来像一堆 buzzword

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我也听说他们被称为平台之平台，整合

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这些分散的系统

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是的

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我认为数据是

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大公司使用约四百款SaaS软件

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如果这个智能体世界真实存在

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那么某些销售

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或者呃

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ServiceNow今天的价值可能下降

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这家公司似乎试图将

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AI套用在所有事物上

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这让我警铃大作

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嗯

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很难给出超高分

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鉴于我们还不清楚

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管理层如何应对

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十分是巴菲特

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一分是辛普森

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特拉维斯评七分马特

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你目前处于八分

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是的

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我是说比尔·麦克德默特

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他是一位高效的领导者

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他担任ceo的七年里营收增长了三倍

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所以你真的不能给他这么低的评分

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我担心他过于强调

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M a 在他的增长战略中

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这确实是一个风险因素

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但他整体资本配置能力相当出色

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是的

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除了拥有

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你知道行业内最好的表现

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在所有ceo中无人能及

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他之前积累了大量经验

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SAP公司的ceo

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我提出的问题是

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从方式来看

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我稍有下调评分的原因之一

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在这个基础技术变革的时代

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我们通常不会看到这些成熟企业

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你知道的

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经验丰富的高管

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成为过渡到下一阶段的最佳人选

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所以我不太好反驳他过去的成就

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问题是未来会怎样

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他是否是带领这家公司或任何公司

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你知道的，进入

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人工智能时代的未来世界

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这是我更多财务方面的疑问

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十分是坚不可摧

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一分令人震惊

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旅行到七点

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你目前处于八分

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别担心

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我很快就要给出负分了

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呃

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但就财务状况而言

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我实在不能给太低的分数

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我是说这台自由现金流机器

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去年四十五亿美元

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自由现金流

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利润率优秀

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我指三到五成的自由现金流利润率

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即使对saas企业来说也很出色

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嗯

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你知道负债率低

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资产负债表显示净现金为正

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他们的股权激励略高于理想水平

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我是说特拉维斯可以谈谈

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你知道他对这些数字中的情况感到担忧

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但就目前的财务快照而言

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没有太多理由给出低于八分的评分

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是的

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我我去了

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或许七分相对较高

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这里的挑战在于

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能否眯着眼睛预见到ServiceNow面临的挑战

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而我认为我们已经开始看到这一点

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他们的增长依然非常强劲

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利润率开始受到挤压

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只是稍微一点

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嗯

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你知道的

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AI颠覆才是市场真正担忧的根本问题

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而且

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我只是觉得

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我们可能正进入财务状况开始恶化的关键时期

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那时就不想持有这只股票

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当利润率下降时

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当增长率放缓时

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这就是为什么我对ServiceNow有些担忧

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但没错

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说起来确实是个挑战

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嘿从后视镜看

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现状看起来相当不错

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我们开始看到一些疲软迹象

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不过特拉维斯

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让我们转向评估部分

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Stockdale的评估如何

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短期持有安全性如何

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一个是彩票

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是的

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或许我在这里给出了10%到15%的相对高估

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但安全评分仅给了五分

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这家公司我希望视为价值投资

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前瞻市盈率仅为二十倍

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如果他们能够

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如果他们能持续增长营收

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你知道的

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这将是个不错的投资

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但并非绝对

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如果软件领域出现

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像ServiceNow这样的产品被替代

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或者类似情况

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接下来会发生什么

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这才是真正的风险

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我们将看到所有金融领域都会面临这种情况

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我们还没完全看到这一点

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非常乐观

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但这对我来说还不是板上钉钉的事

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是的

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我的意思是十五以上

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但我们比这更一致

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我完全可以随便说个负数

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这就是我给安全评分五分的原因

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我的意思是现在服务已下跌40%

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今年以来

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远低于高点

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目前是SaaS行业最差表现之一

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你知道的

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管理层激进回购股票

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这显示他们认为股价被低估

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我在这里也同意

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市盈增长率不到一倍

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市销率约20倍极度便宜

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从历史角度看这只股票

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AI颠覆确实是个真实担忧

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还有地缘政治不确定性

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他们竟与中东局势紧密相关

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嗯

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如果公司能成功适应AI时代

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这里就是绝佳 bargain

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这可是个大

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如果

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这就是我们量化分析的原因

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我没想到特拉维斯会是10%到15%

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呃

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但考虑到安全评分

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大概能理解

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嗯

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感谢特拉维斯和马特

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他们为ServiceNow

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给出了七分的稳健总评

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十分制中的0分

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无相关主题

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每日留意新评分榜

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每个交易日七点

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东部时间下一家是英特尔，待会见

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