【NaNa说美股】20260312美股的诺曼底时刻！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是3月12号周四

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美元美债收益率

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还有油价大幅上涨

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全球股市普遍回落

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美股三大股指集体重挫

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尾盘加速跳水

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说在日内最低点附近

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最近呢每个周四大跌几乎都成了惯例了

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虽然盘中法新社报道称

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伊朗副外长表示

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伊朗并没有在霍尔木兹海峡布水雷

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并且允许部分船只通过海峡

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但是市场并没有打鸡血啊

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一是呃他所谓的允许的这一部分船只

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估计是中国邮轮来伊朗买油的

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其他船只都不让通过

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而且伊朗这两天还加大了对霍尔木兹海峡

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商船的袭击力度

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又有两艘外国邮轮在伊拉克领海内遭到袭击

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并且起火

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造成至少一人死亡

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38名船员获救

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伊拉克那边呢暂停了石油港口作业

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阿曼则暂时疏散了一个关键出口枢纽

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呃次子今天呢通过国家电视台发表了首次讲话

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态度非常强硬哈

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要求海湾各国立即关闭所有美军基地

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否则将会面临直接袭击

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并且还表示将会继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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将其作为向美国施压的手段

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所以刚才那个伊朗副外长说的那一番话

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根本没什么用

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也根本就不可信

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昨天国际能源署虽然宣布释放了4亿桶

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史上最大规模储备

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但是市场对霍尔木兹海峡供应持续中断的忧虑

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远大于政策层面的安抚

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要想让油价持续下行

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唯一的办法就是恢复霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输

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嗯美国能源部长今天表示

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美国海军尚未准备好进行护航行动

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最早最早也要等到本月底

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才可能护送邮轮通过霍尔木兹海峡

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高盛呢又一次连夜撕报告了

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称

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元宇对霍尔木兹海峡运输

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中段时间的重新评估上调了嗯

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油价预测之前呢

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高斯预测海峡封闭时间只有十天

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现在预测可能要持续21天了

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在高盛设定的基准情景中

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霍尔木兹海峡的运输量

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可能在3月21号之后啊

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才会逐步的恢复

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而战略储备释放规模呢

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也将随着油价回落而逐渐减少

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如果供应恢复顺利的话

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WTI油价到6月初

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可能回落到每桶70美元以下

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但若是封锁的情况持续到3月底

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那么全球原油市场可能会进入严重

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供应紧张状态

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油价将会飙升到08年的峰值

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也就是150美元

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甚至可能更高

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摩根大通的交易部门则指出啊

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如果美国的军事行动无法取得短期胜利的话

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可能要被迫通过地面冲突来重新开放

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或木兹海峡

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那当然啦都不用说

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大家都知道

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如果美国不派这个地面部队去进行扫除的话

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根本不可能获得这个真正的胜利呀

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这不可能就像川普想要的嗯

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既要又要还要嘛

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又要呃这个最小的代价完成战争

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又想要霍尔木兹海峡保持通

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没有那么美的事情哈

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战争这个事情你开始了

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但什么时候结束

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那就不是你说了算的

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当然了

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美国也可以拍拍屁股走人

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可是你这个海峡如果继续这么封闭着

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那是不行的呀

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如果到这个周日啊

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期货市场开盘的时候还没有达成解决方案的话

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小摩说

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风险资产下周将会面临更剧烈的抛售

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宏观数据面向美国

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上周首请世界经营人数呢

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小幅下降到了21.3万人

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低于预期的21.5万

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续请失业金人数降到了185万人

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尽管甲骨文

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布洛克等公司纷纷宣布裁员

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但是新增失业人数呢依然保持在历史低位水平

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所以美国劳动力市场依然呢很稳健

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另外美国1月份贸易逆差收窄

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超过了25%到545亿美元

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低于市场预期的660亿美元呃

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因为出口增长了5.5%

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主要得益于非货币黄金

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其他贵金属计算机和飞机的出口增长

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而进口呢下降了0.7%

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主要原因是药品采购量减少

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1月份美国的关税水平保持不变哈

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但是在2月20号嗯

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美国最高法院不是推翻了很多关税吗

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促使川普呢依据不同的法律依据

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重新征收全球15%的关税

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最新消息就是

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美国将开启新一轮301贸易调查了

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又要为新的关税政策做准备了

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因为原有市场这么剧烈动荡的时候

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又要打这关税战哈

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大摩高盛呢

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都将美联储恢复降息的节点

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从6月份推迟到今年9月份了

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目前他们预计嗯9月和12月

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美联储将会降息25个基点

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理由是与中东冲突相关的通胀风险3L

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但是大家都知道

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5月份鲍威尔就要卸任了呀

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不太可能扛得住白宫的政治压力

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不降息

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就算到时候CPIPPI

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什么PCE数据都不支持呃

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也可以拿劳动力市场来说事呀

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可以说是为了预防式的降息是吧

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更何况

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到时候

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说不定

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这个美股大盘已经被砸出了一个黄金坑了哈

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就等着美联储降息救市了

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今天呢嗯掉胡百指数盘中的杀跌

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很大程度上是由CCTA系统性抛压

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还有期权伽马的负反馈效应所造成的

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这个中期枢走支撑哈

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触发了呃系统性策略的新一轮抛售潮

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这也是昨天视频里高盛所提示的风险

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另外呢由于本周五有大量价外put到期

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集中在6600~6750点区间

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这种结构产生了向下的引力

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当指数跌破了6750之后啊

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大量处于6600~6750的

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这个深度put开始变得活跃了哈

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做成三呢

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为了对冲不断增加的delta风险

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就只能够持续卖出股指期货

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进一步把指数给压低

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今天日K收出一根光脚阴线

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暗示卖盘动能可能还没有衰减

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目前市场处于深度的覆盖板区哈

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这意味着明天开盘

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只要指数不直接暴利跳空高开的话

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那做市商为了对冲那些已经进入价内的铺层呢

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就必须在盘中继续等机械性的卖出

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推动指数快速下探

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回撤周一的低点6636

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如果这里守不住的话

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指数就会瞬间滑下6600

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6600是本周最大的看跌期权强

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就是这里有很多机构的put埋伏在这里哈

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而且呢与年限重合

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所以呢6600啊就是多头的诺曼底之战

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如果真的跌到这里

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那些机构们会不惜一切代价买入现货或者期货

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来保住行权价

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不让指数跌穿6600而空投

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我们当然也知道这一点

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所以在这个位置空投将会集中获利了结

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推动指数呢出现剧烈反弹

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所以如果明天盘前没有一个大利好出来

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救命的话哈

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那指数在盘中要是快速杀跌

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大家一定要保持冷静

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不要让情绪控制了你

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最好的抄底时间

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就是在你最难受这个手发抖的时候

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想要抄底的话

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在指数接近6630点可以先买点嗯

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到6600的话

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到时候再加仓

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因为不保证一定能跌到6600嘛

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可能提前就拉起来做空的话哈

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当然也是呃逼近6630的时候

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要注意随时止盈

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现在呢标普500指数每天的交易量中

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大约50%都来自当天到期的

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0日到期期权

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导致整个市场结构就发生了根本性的变化

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以前啊是现货决定期权价格

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现在是嗯期权反过来影响现货走势了

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根据高盛交易部门的数据

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目前美股的空头头寸已经达到了

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2022年9月以来的最高水平

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市场既然呃会因为恐慌而暴跌

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那也意味着一旦恐慌消退

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市场就会暴力反弹

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所以后面一旦出现海峡恢复航运的利好消息啊

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就很可能会引发大规模的空头回补

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在我看来呢

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做空美股大盘还是永远比做多更难的

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尤其是当情续主导行情的时候

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即使有这样那样的各种利空笼罩着市场哈

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但只要川普一句话

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就能够立即引发非常猛烈的噶空行情

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比如周一指数一度跌到6636了

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但是很快就被资金快速的拉起

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如果没有日内盯盘或者空单

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00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:57,019
没有提前设置好止损止盈的话

215
00:09:57,019 --> 00:10:00,589
就很容易从呃大笔盈利变成亏损

216
00:10:00,589 --> 00:10:01,208
当然了

217
00:10:01,208 --> 00:10:02,408
现在做多也不容易

218
00:10:02,408 --> 00:10:05,000
因为市场的不确定性仍然很高嘛

219
00:10:05,000 --> 00:10:08,700
真正的低点呢往往瞬间就会被埋起

220
00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:10,659
很难精准的抄到底

221
00:10:10,659 --> 00:10:12,960
因此当前这种环境下哈

222
00:10:12,960 --> 00:10:15,629
无论你是做多还是做空

223
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:18,740
最好都只保持小仓位的交易

224
00:10:18,740 --> 00:10:21,419
个股与板块方面adobe运气不好

225
00:10:21,419 --> 00:10:24,169
在大盘极度动荡的时候发财报

226
00:10:24,169 --> 00:10:26,950
虽然业绩与指引都超出市场预期

227
00:10:26,950 --> 00:10:29,809
季度产生的现金流更是创历史新高

228
00:10:29,809 --> 00:10:31,799
达到29.61美元

229
00:10:31,799 --> 00:10:34,340
但是公司管理层变更啊

230
00:10:34,340 --> 00:10:37,940
已经任职了18年的首席执行官将要卸任

231
00:10:37,940 --> 00:10:39,600
国家现在盘后下跌

232
00:10:39,600 --> 00:10:41,679
霍尔木兹海峡航运中断呢

233
00:10:41,679 --> 00:10:44,740
还导致化肥产品流通停滞

234
00:10:44,740 --> 00:10:45,818
成本上升

235
00:10:45,818 --> 00:10:48,578
可能推高全球食品价格

236
00:10:48,578 --> 00:10:51,938
全球最大的氮肥以及其他氮肥产品

237
00:10:51,938 --> 00:10:55,750
制造商和分销商之1cf工业控股

238
00:10:55,750 --> 00:10:57,789
今天啊领涨标普百指数

239
00:10:57,789 --> 00:10:59,710
股价创下历史新高

240
00:10:59,710 --> 00:11:01,259
年初迄今

241
00:11:01,259 --> 00:11:03,509
雷涨了77%

242
00:11:03,509 --> 00:11:06,809
还有美国化肥龙头ms s啊

243
00:11:06,809 --> 00:11:10,450
这个股价连续两个交易日跳空上涨

244
00:11:10,450 --> 00:11:13,730
全球最大的化肥生产商NTR

245
00:11:13,730 --> 00:11:15,940
股价的近期也持续走高

246
00:11:15,940 --> 00:11:18,100
嗯春季播种季节嘛

247
00:11:18,100 --> 00:11:19,659
农民急需肥料啊

248
00:11:19,659 --> 00:11:22,220
但是价格上涨可能损害农民的利益

249
00:11:22,220 --> 00:11:26,480
美国农残局联合会就呼吁白宫赶紧干预

250
00:11:26,480 --> 00:11:30,659
以避免粮食供应冲击和加剧经济通胀压力

251
00:11:30,659 --> 00:11:33,980
农民那可是川普的票仓所在啊

252
00:11:33,980 --> 00:11:35,700
难怪这几天川普嗯

253
00:11:35,700 --> 00:11:39,059
这个频频的taco给市场做按摩是吧

254
00:11:39,059 --> 00:11:42,839
想不到打仗居然还把化肥的价格给冲高了

255
00:11:42,839 --> 00:11:44,178
HIMS呢

256
00:11:44,178 --> 00:11:45,739
最近股价暴利反弹

257
00:11:45,739 --> 00:11:49,339
此前困扰公司的一个重大不确定性终于落地

258
00:11:49,339 --> 00:11:54,590
就是诺和诺德撤销了复方减肥药专利侵权诉讼

259
00:11:54,590 --> 00:11:57,139
而且双方还达成了新的协议

260
00:11:57,139 --> 00:12:00,500
未来呢HIMS将会在自己的平台上销售

261
00:12:00,500 --> 00:12:02,799
诺和诺德的品牌减肥药

262
00:12:02,799 --> 00:12:06,239
相当于给呃公司的减肥业务

263
00:12:06,239 --> 00:12:08,418
某种程度上合法化了哈

264
00:12:08,418 --> 00:12:12,080
HMS还挖来了前礼来的公关高管

265
00:12:12,080 --> 00:12:13,919
这一步被市场解读为

266
00:12:13,919 --> 00:12:18,600
公司正在为未来进一步扩大减肥药业务做准备

267
00:12:18,600 --> 00:12:20,080
从投资角度看

268
00:12:20,080 --> 00:12:23,690
HMM这一波上涨属于情绪修复

269
00:12:23,690 --> 00:12:27,649
因为市场之前给他打了一个很大的监管折价嘛

270
00:12:27,649 --> 00:12:29,629
现在随着诉讼风险下降了

271
00:12:29,629 --> 00:12:31,750
那估值就快速的回补

272
00:12:31,750 --> 00:12:34,909
中长期是否能够持续涨势呢

273
00:12:34,909 --> 00:12:37,950
那还要看公司在减肥药生态中的位置

274
00:12:37,950 --> 00:12:39,970
能不能够真正的稳住

275
00:12:39,970 --> 00:12:43,190
软件巨头CIM在股价腰斩之后

276
00:12:43,190 --> 00:12:45,340
管理一层加大了回购力度

277
00:12:45,340 --> 00:12:46,399
此前已经宣布

278
00:12:46,399 --> 00:12:50,000
未来最多投入500亿美元进行股票回购

279
00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:51,600
而今天又进一步宣布

280
00:12:51,600 --> 00:12:53,980
计划发行250亿美元债券

281
00:12:53,980 --> 00:12:56,610
为这些回购提供融资支持

282
00:12:56,610 --> 00:13:00,049
这个消息在市场上还是引发了一些争议的

283
00:13:00,049 --> 00:13:03,289
虽说举债回购在美股并不罕见

284
00:13:03,289 --> 00:13:05,769
比如苹果多年来就一直这么干

285
00:13:05,769 --> 00:13:09,049
当公司认为自身的股票被低估的时候

286
00:13:09,049 --> 00:13:11,710
通过回购减少流通股数量

287
00:13:11,710 --> 00:13:13,379
可以提升每股收益

288
00:13:13,379 --> 00:13:14,639
但问题在于

289
00:13:14,639 --> 00:13:17,940
现代科技行业的估值体系正在变化

290
00:13:17,940 --> 00:13:19,820
一些分析师呢就认为啊

291
00:13:19,820 --> 00:13:20,860
唉在这个阶段

292
00:13:20,860 --> 00:13:24,779
把大量的资金用于回购未必是最佳的选择呀

293
00:13:24,779 --> 00:13:29,039
如果把钱投入到并购或者是新业务的扩张上

294
00:13:29,039 --> 00:13:31,059
可能会更有长期价值

295
00:13:31,059 --> 00:13:33,980
更何况CIM在2025财年第四季度

296
00:13:33,980 --> 00:13:34,299
已

297
00:13:34,299 --> 00:13:39,568
几乎已经把全部自有现金流都返回给了股东们

298
00:13:39,568 --> 00:13:43,168
那在这种情况下继续举债回购哈

299
00:13:43,168 --> 00:13:46,350
会明显提高公司的财务杠杆

300
00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:49,230
标普全球品级的信贷分析师呢

301
00:13:49,230 --> 00:13:53,799
就将CFS的品级展望从稳定下调到负面

302
00:13:53,799 --> 00:13:56,980
理由就是对公司未来杠杆率上升的担忧

303
00:13:56,980 --> 00:14:00,220
不过股价今天依然是逆势上涨

304
00:14:00,220 --> 00:14:02,580
fly股价呢涨超12%

305
00:14:02,580 --> 00:14:07,659
催化剂来自公司刚刚完成的一次关键发射任务

306
00:14:07,659 --> 00:14:10,860
公司成功发射了其阿尔法火箭的第

307
00:14:10,860 --> 00:14:12,340
七次飞行任务

308
00:14:12,340 --> 00:14:14,659
这次任务还搭载了为呃

309
00:14:14,659 --> 00:14:17,779
洛克希德马丁提供的一个技术液

310
00:14:17,779 --> 00:14:18,940
是载荷

311
00:14:18,940 --> 00:14:21,659
这次发射不仅是一次商业任务

312
00:14:21,659 --> 00:14:25,220
还更被视为对alpha火箭可靠性的验证

313
00:14:25,220 --> 00:14:28,500
而军工龙头洛克希德马丁的参与呢

314
00:14:28,500 --> 00:14:33,039
相当于为弗莱的技术能力提供了一定的背书

315
00:14:33,039 --> 00:14:33,440
呃

316
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:36,840
这支票本身属于典型的小市值

317
00:14:36,840 --> 00:14:39,159
高蓄式的航天概念股

318
00:14:39,159 --> 00:14:40,599
流通盘也较小

319
00:14:40,599 --> 00:14:42,399
一旦出现明确的利好

320
00:14:42,399 --> 00:14:45,450
很容易就形成消息驱动型的拉升

321
00:14:45,450 --> 00:14:48,529
之前股价已经震荡整理了一段时间

322
00:14:48,529 --> 00:14:52,078
这次发射呢正好就成为突破的催化剂

323
00:14:52,078 --> 00:14:54,538
不过这类题材股的持续性哈

324
00:14:54,538 --> 00:14:59,110
仍取决于后续是否有新的订单或者合作落地

325
00:14:59,110 --> 00:15:01,330
如果缺乏持续商业进展

326
00:15:01,330 --> 00:15:04,690
那短线拉升后也容易进入震荡消化的阶段

327
00:15:04,690 --> 00:15:07,730
在线约会应用BO公布财报后

328
00:15:07,730 --> 00:15:09,580
股价出现跳空大涨

329
00:15:09,580 --> 00:15:12,360
其实财报数据本身并不算漂亮

330
00:15:12,360 --> 00:15:16,700
Q4收入调整后一比他还有利润率都同比下滑

331
00:15:16,700 --> 00:15:17,740
但关键在于

332
00:15:17,740 --> 00:15:21,710
这些数据呢并没有市场原先想象的那么差

333
00:15:21,710 --> 00:15:26,129
另外公司给出的26Q1指引也相对乐观

334
00:15:26,129 --> 00:15:29,529
掩盖了本季度一些令人担忧的指标

335
00:15:29,529 --> 00:15:32,149
公司基本面依然很脆弱

336
00:15:32,149 --> 00:15:33,769
但是股价在财报公布前

337
00:15:33,769 --> 00:15:35,889
已经连续下跌了一段时间

338
00:15:35,889 --> 00:15:38,149
市场的预期呢被压的很低

339
00:15:38,149 --> 00:15:39,049
非常的悲观

340
00:15:39,049 --> 00:15:42,409
所以财报出来之后就等于是一个典型的利空

341
00:15:42,409 --> 00:15:44,679
出净空头回补行情

342
00:15:44,679 --> 00:15:49,080
这才推动股价在短时间内出现大幅反弹

343
00:15:49,080 --> 00:15:52,320
嗯所以呢这个最高风险还是挺大的哈

344
00:15:52,320 --> 00:15:56,370
我对这个股票其实嗯就只是小票嘛

345
00:15:56,370 --> 00:15:59,649
涨跌完全是这个操盘手说了算哈

346
00:15:59,649 --> 00:16:02,169
行今天我们就说到这里

347
00:16:02,169 --> 00:16:03,799
那我们明天见拜拜

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