BV1weEX6iEwr · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:01,560 --> 00:00:02,080 大家好 2 00:00:02,080 --> 00:00:03,060 欢迎回到视野 3 00:00:03,060 --> 00:00:04,080 环球财经 4 00:00:04,080 --> 00:00:05,000 我是right now 5 00:00:05,000 --> 00:00:07,400 现在是美东时间26年6月9号 6 00:00:07,400 --> 00:00:09,910 周二晚上的8.45分 7 00:00:09,910 --> 00:00:15,169 今天呢四大指数是开盘小幅冲高之后是急转直下 8 00:00:15,169 --> 00:00:15,869 纳指100 9 00:00:15,869 --> 00:00:19,539 盘中最大的跌幅曾经达到过4% 10 00:00:19,539 --> 00:00:23,539 不过呢午后反弹收复了3/4的跌幅 11 00:00:26,009 --> 00:00:29,028 今天的标普表现的更好一些啊 12 00:00:29,028 --> 00:00:31,849 是收复了大多数的跌幅啊 13 00:00:35,939 --> 00:00:41,520 那么今天大部分的疲软呢是集中在科技板块呃 14 00:00:44,600 --> 00:00:46,600 其他的除了能源也跌了一些 15 00:00:46,600 --> 00:00:49,759 剩下的九个板块是全部上涨 16 00:00:49,759 --> 00:00:56,250 所以呢今天大家看到标普等权重指数反而上涨了0.3% 17 00:00:56,250 --> 00:01:01,210 另外呢今天的标普500指数有371只成分股上涨 18 00:01:01,210 --> 00:01:03,640 131只下跌 19 00:01:03,640 --> 00:01:07,359 咱们今天的节目呢还是首先过一下消息面啊 20 00:01:07,359 --> 00:01:10,640 然后呢我会重点的去讲一些个股啊 21 00:01:10,640 --> 00:01:14,379 包括像半导体现在的走势呃 22 00:01:14,379 --> 00:01:16,939 然后呢还有最近这几天没有讲的 23 00:01:16,939 --> 00:01:20,430 像IGV的一个区间震荡的这个更新 24 00:01:20,430 --> 00:01:22,590 以及包括AAMD的更新 25 00:01:22,590 --> 00:01:27,239 还有甲骨文明天的财报以及PLTR 26 00:01:27,239 --> 00:01:33,670 另外呢还有担心微软短期走势的如何寻求保护啊 27 00:01:33,670 --> 00:01:37,109 好那咱们就开始今天的主题 28 00:01:37,109 --> 00:01:42,739 首先呢我们来说一下关于国际油价和中东局势进展 29 00:01:43,180 --> 00:01:44,459 美国那是确认啊 30 00:01:44,459 --> 00:01:47,319 伊朗击落了一架阿帕奇直升机 31 00:01:47,319 --> 00:01:49,640 另外呢美国总统川普表示说啊 32 00:01:49,640 --> 00:01:51,140 美国必须回应 33 00:01:51,140 --> 00:01:57,989 所以呢今天美军在下午的五点左右是开始对伊朗进行报复性打击 34 00:01:57,989 --> 00:02:00,450 但是通过今天这个盘面来看 35 00:02:00,450 --> 00:02:05,250 很多朋友会说是不是由于中东的这个消息推动市场大幅下跌的 36 00:02:05,250 --> 00:02:07,450 其实通过盘面走势看 37 00:02:07,450 --> 00:02:10,210 国际油价在今天的盘中呢 38 00:02:10,210 --> 00:02:12,990 它其实没有大幅上涨 39 00:02:12,990 --> 00:02:15,430 而且在标普的11个板块中啊 40 00:02:15,430 --> 00:02:18,509 我们说尽管能源是有所下跌的 41 00:02:18,509 --> 00:02:20,969 但是科技板块的跌幅最大 42 00:02:27,120 --> 00:02:33,569 也就是说其实今天这条消息并不是主要推动下跌的力量 43 00:02:33,569 --> 00:02:38,439 科技股自身的下跌是主要的砸盘来源 44 00:02:38,439 --> 00:02:43,280 或许呢这里边有另一条消息的刺激会更大 45 00:02:43,280 --> 00:02:44,520 什么消息呢 46 00:02:44,520 --> 00:02:48,379 就是今天啊市场是有一个小作文 47 00:02:48,379 --> 00:02:51,509 就是彭博的一篇报道指出 48 00:02:51,830 --> 00:02:55,430 数据中心开发商crucial呢是已经暂停了 49 00:02:55,430 --> 00:03:00,939 在怀俄明州的1.8几瓦的人工智能项目的开发活动 50 00:03:00,939 --> 00:03:05,520 他们说啊是应客户要求暂停开发活动 51 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:07,530 就是把一个数据中心给停了 52 00:03:07,530 --> 00:03:10,479 那么这个客户的身份没有公开 53 00:03:10,479 --> 00:03:13,479 但是根据这家公司以前的合作记录呢 54 00:03:13,479 --> 00:03:16,360 他们合作的很多方面的 55 00:03:16,360 --> 00:03:18,360 包括像STARGATE啊 56 00:03:18,360 --> 00:03:19,879 就是星际之门项目中 57 00:03:19,879 --> 00:03:22,550 其中很多的参与方也涉及到 58 00:03:22,550 --> 00:03:24,030 包括像open i 59 00:03:24,030 --> 00:03:26,270 也涉及到像英伟达等等啊 60 00:03:26,270 --> 00:03:29,269 一系列的这个行业里边的一些领头羊 61 00:03:29,269 --> 00:03:30,229 具体是谁啊 62 00:03:30,229 --> 00:03:30,949 咱们不知道啊 63 00:03:30,949 --> 00:03:38,409 但是呢这个消息他或许是推动科技板块再次恐慌的一个潜在的原因 64 00:03:38,409 --> 00:03:40,849 因为咱们在上个星期可能大家还记得啊 65 00:03:40,849 --> 00:03:44,560 就是博通的财报在发布之后 66 00:03:44,560 --> 00:03:46,719 它是维持前瞻的 67 00:03:46,719 --> 00:03:47,680 没有上调 68 00:03:47,680 --> 00:03:48,319 对不对 69 00:03:48,319 --> 00:03:52,960 我们按照现在的这么如火如荼地进行的数据中心建设 70 00:03:52,960 --> 00:03:56,780 以及这么好的这个业绩的提升 71 00:03:56,780 --> 00:03:58,979 很多的都在大幅的上涨业绩 72 00:03:58,979 --> 00:04:00,340 但是博通没有啊 73 00:04:00,340 --> 00:04:01,479 他前瞻没提升 74 00:04:01,479 --> 00:04:02,699 非常的保守啊 75 00:04:02,699 --> 00:04:05,789 所以这里边暗地里正在发生什么呢 76 00:04:05,789 --> 00:04:07,909 或许现在还没有特别明显的迹象 77 00:04:07,909 --> 00:04:13,349 但是已经感觉到似乎呢其中有一些分歧好 78 00:04:13,349 --> 00:04:15,469 那么在讲解个股之前 79 00:04:15,469 --> 00:04:20,810 首先呢我还想对昨天的有一个数据做一个补充啊 80 00:04:22,879 --> 00:04:24,879 昨天呢给大家看的这张图表啊 81 00:04:24,879 --> 00:04:28,579 因为有朋友呢是在评论区也问到了其中的一个问题 82 00:04:28,579 --> 00:04:34,670 就是在昨天的这张图表上讲的是在过去的30年里边啊 83 00:04:34,670 --> 00:04:39,550 就是一共有20一个周五在纳指100跌破 84 00:04:39,550 --> 00:04:41,670 跌了4%之后啊 85 00:04:41,670 --> 00:04:42,930 超过4%以后 86 00:04:42,930 --> 00:04:45,269 未来的五个交易日里边 87 00:04:45,269 --> 00:04:47,639 也就是说到这个星期五之前 88 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:51,439 昨天说的是有19次跌破了低点 89 00:04:51,439 --> 00:04:53,319 就是上个星期五的低点啊 90 00:04:53,319 --> 00:04:57,160 但是这个图表上呢它是以收盘价来计算的啊 91 00:04:57,160 --> 00:04:58,879 就是收盘价计算的 92 00:04:58,879 --> 00:05:03,180 第五个交易日的收盘价跌破上周五的低点的 93 00:05:03,180 --> 00:05:05,199 其实没有19个 94 00:05:05,199 --> 00:05:06,829 所以我这里补充一下 95 00:05:06,829 --> 00:05:12,009 这19次在他的原始报告里边写的是INTRADAY啊 96 00:05:12,009 --> 00:05:14,480 INTRADAY就是日内的 97 00:05:14,480 --> 00:05:18,139 所以这个是包含了盘中的跌破 98 00:05:18,139 --> 00:05:20,500 收盘又收回来的情况 99 00:05:20,500 --> 00:05:22,300 一共是加起来有19次 100 00:05:22,300 --> 00:05:25,579 这个情况很像什么呢 101 00:05:26,879 --> 00:05:29,449 很像是今天的这个纳指啊 102 00:05:32,949 --> 00:05:34,449 然后呢今天又收回来了啊 103 00:05:34,449 --> 00:05:38,680 所以像这种情况也是符合在统计数据中的 104 00:05:38,680 --> 00:05:42,790 也就是在刚才那张图表上90%的概率的啊 105 00:05:42,790 --> 00:05:46,899 所以仍旧是出现了这种比较糟糕的走势 106 00:05:46,899 --> 00:05:48,259 但是呢最终的收盘啊 107 00:05:48,259 --> 00:05:51,459 我们看到其实在上一次刚才那个统计图表中 108 00:05:51,459 --> 00:05:55,858 五个交易日最终的收盘跌破上个星期低点的 109 00:05:55,858 --> 00:05:57,658 其实差不多只有一半左右啊 110 00:05:57,658 --> 00:05:59,019 不到没有19次 111 00:05:59,019 --> 00:06:01,550 那么多好额 112 00:06:01,550 --> 00:06:04,670 那么回过头来我们先把大盘讲一下 113 00:06:06,240 --> 00:06:08,800 尽管咱们说盘中跌破啊 114 00:06:08,800 --> 00:06:11,230 但是呢从趋势来讲 115 00:06:11,230 --> 00:06:12,529 我们客观地说 116 00:06:12,529 --> 00:06:16,559 我们仍旧要以收盘价为准 117 00:06:16,559 --> 00:06:21,610 今天的这个纳指的收盘价呢是没有跌破之前的低点 118 00:06:21,610 --> 00:06:26,519 所以不能够判断趋势直接就走空了 119 00:06:26,519 --> 00:06:30,379 但是呢他很显然他收盘也没有突破前高嘛 120 00:06:30,379 --> 00:06:33,699 你也更没有办法判断说他马上就反转了 121 00:06:33,699 --> 00:06:36,939 所以市场还处于一个中性位置 122 00:06:36,939 --> 00:06:41,100 但是今天的收盘价离前低不远 123 00:06:41,100 --> 00:06:43,899 而且呢整体的市场走得偏弱 124 00:06:43,899 --> 00:06:45,310 还出现了放量 125 00:06:45,310 --> 00:06:47,910 也不是什么明显的止跌形态啊 126 00:06:47,910 --> 00:06:50,670 勉强就是一个市场中性博弈的过程 127 00:06:50,670 --> 00:06:56,720 整体上根据收盘位置来判断属于中性偏弱的走势 128 00:06:56,720 --> 00:07:00,639 那么后续的标普和纳指的强弱 129 00:07:00,639 --> 00:07:06,959 我们仍旧应该以今天的收盘价或者下个开盘价为准 130 00:07:06,959 --> 00:07:11,730 到底会不会收到上个周五的最低点的下方啊 131 00:07:11,730 --> 00:07:13,689 标普今天还差了一点点对吧 132 00:07:13,689 --> 00:07:17,230 纳指这边呢稍微强那么一丢丢 133 00:07:17,230 --> 00:07:19,149 这个是大盘 134 00:07:19,149 --> 00:07:20,990 标普和纳指好 135 00:07:20,990 --> 00:07:23,550 接下来我想说一下半导体 136 00:07:25,600 --> 00:07:28,000 我们看非正半导体指数 137 00:07:28,569 --> 00:07:33,009 费城半导体指数呢今天仍旧是勉强的收住了 138 00:07:33,009 --> 00:07:35,720 这条上升趋势线没有跌破啊 139 00:07:35,720 --> 00:07:37,319 盘中我们说过跌破不算啊 140 00:07:37,319 --> 00:07:39,649 我们要以收盘价为准 141 00:07:39,649 --> 00:07:43,490 但是能看得出来真的是非常非常的勉强 142 00:07:43,490 --> 00:07:45,449 相当的疲惫啊 143 00:07:45,449 --> 00:07:48,470 嗯想要扭转这个颓势 144 00:07:48,470 --> 00:07:50,930 因为现在的问题是斜率太高 145 00:07:50,930 --> 00:07:53,449 它不能够保持持续的拉升 146 00:07:53,449 --> 00:07:54,779 只要是横盘 147 00:07:54,779 --> 00:07:57,300 它都会横破这个上升趋势线 148 00:07:57,300 --> 00:08:01,199 所以也就是呢他现在没有什么多的路可走 149 00:08:01,199 --> 00:08:03,069 只有往上爬山啊 150 00:08:03,069 --> 00:08:03,810 爬不上去 151 00:08:03,810 --> 00:08:05,329 那么未来就要下山啊 152 00:08:05,329 --> 00:08:07,810 其实现在的情况就越来越紧急了 153 00:08:07,810 --> 00:08:09,649 那么也就意味着呢 154 00:08:09,649 --> 00:08:13,399 其实SPACEX呢在周五会上市交易 155 00:08:13,399 --> 00:08:14,839 那个时候的流动性呢 156 00:08:14,839 --> 00:08:19,579 市场的很多投机盘预计呢会参与到space x的投机中 157 00:08:19,579 --> 00:08:24,600 也就意味着其实现在啊凡是目前被炒得火热的板块 158 00:08:24,600 --> 00:08:26,399 也就是像半导体这样的啊 159 00:08:26,399 --> 00:08:32,328 必须在明后两天周三周四的这两天 160 00:08:32,328 --> 00:08:34,690 在SPACEX上市之前 161 00:08:34,690 --> 00:08:38,909 必须要收到今天的最高点的上方 162 00:08:38,909 --> 00:08:44,549 他才能够打破在过去三个交易日的这个横盘区间啊 163 00:08:44,549 --> 00:08:46,830 要收盘收到今天的高点上方 164 00:08:46,830 --> 00:08:47,990 这就不是周五高点了 165 00:08:47,990 --> 00:08:49,490 因为比周五高点还要高一些 166 00:08:49,490 --> 00:08:52,440 因为今天又产生了更多的套牢盘 167 00:08:52,799 --> 00:08:56,320 如果明天我们看到大幅低开啊 168 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:58,580 或者后天大幅低开 169 00:08:58,580 --> 00:09:01,169 直接开到趋势线下方去 170 00:09:01,169 --> 00:09:05,600 那基本可以判断获利盘开盘会先逃跑一波 171 00:09:05,600 --> 00:09:10,759 那么短线想抄底多头的信心也会受到打击啊 172 00:09:10,759 --> 00:09:11,840 他们会动摇 173 00:09:11,840 --> 00:09:14,820 这个时候就可能会吸引更多的获利盘出逃 174 00:09:14,820 --> 00:09:16,149 跟随砸盘 175 00:09:16,149 --> 00:09:17,029 砸的是谁 176 00:09:17,029 --> 00:09:18,970 其实就是之前的获利盘啊 177 00:09:18,970 --> 00:09:19,909 不是追高的 178 00:09:19,909 --> 00:09:20,789 追高的被套了 179 00:09:20,789 --> 00:09:22,669 他想跑他还得犹豫呢对吧 180 00:09:22,669 --> 00:09:23,190 再一犹豫 181 00:09:23,190 --> 00:09:25,149 他可能就赔的更多那些 182 00:09:25,149 --> 00:09:27,389 但是那些获利的他会跑的很快 183 00:09:27,389 --> 00:09:28,548 他是赚钱走的吧 184 00:09:28,548 --> 00:09:29,269 无所谓的嘛 185 00:09:29,269 --> 00:09:29,828 多几个点 186 00:09:29,828 --> 00:09:31,629 少几个点对他区别不大 187 00:09:31,629 --> 00:09:32,269 涨了那么多了 188 00:09:32,269 --> 00:09:32,909 是不是 189 00:09:32,909 --> 00:09:36,450 所以呢就会出现糟糕的多杀多的情况 190 00:09:36,450 --> 00:09:41,809 所以我这里呢就只能祝愿半导体明后天开盘好运 191 00:09:41,809 --> 00:09:44,009 非电半导体指数一样的情况啊 192 00:09:44,009 --> 00:09:45,370 ETF是一样的 193 00:09:45,370 --> 00:09:46,970 情况一模一样 194 00:09:46,970 --> 00:09:48,850 还有SMH的情况 195 00:09:48,850 --> 00:09:50,850 其实呢它是有一点点失真啊 196 00:09:50,850 --> 00:09:53,429 因为他和费半的绝对走势成分股不一样 197 00:09:53,429 --> 00:09:55,639 所以呢我们以这两个为准 198 00:09:55,639 --> 00:09:58,230 好吧好 199 00:09:58,230 --> 00:10:01,950 然后呢我再更新一个最近讲的少的子板块 200 00:10:01,950 --> 00:10:04,009 就是IGV 201 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,759 额今天的情况我们可以到最近的趋势啊 202 00:10:10,759 --> 00:10:19,009 有一个新的变化是呃就是软件呢它呢最近是半导体跌 203 00:10:19,009 --> 00:10:20,690 软件也跌 204 00:10:20,690 --> 00:10:21,570 也没有涨 205 00:10:21,570 --> 00:10:22,349 对不对 206 00:10:22,349 --> 00:10:26,469 最近几天的走势大家发现是科技板块内部啊 207 00:10:26,469 --> 00:10:27,929 就是不分好坏 208 00:10:27,929 --> 00:10:31,110 整个大板块都在集中下跌 209 00:10:31,110 --> 00:10:32,789 是同步的走势 210 00:10:32,789 --> 00:10:36,639 就说没有出现那种半导体软软件走强的情况 211 00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:43,269 反而出现了科技股弱消费和医疗保健走强的情况 212 00:10:43,549 --> 00:10:45,529 那么这种情况的出现呢 213 00:10:45,529 --> 00:10:47,909 说明科技在走弱 214 00:10:47,909 --> 00:10:49,669 整体在走弱 215 00:10:49,669 --> 00:10:52,860 其他板块整体在走稳 216 00:10:52,860 --> 00:10:54,379 这是一个潜在的变化 217 00:10:54,379 --> 00:10:55,940 因为市场的广度正在提升 218 00:10:55,940 --> 00:10:57,740 但指数在大幅下跌对吧 219 00:10:57,740 --> 00:11:01,460 所以这是和之前完全相反的一个走势 220 00:11:01,460 --> 00:11:03,100 那这里大家会要想了 221 00:11:03,100 --> 00:11:04,039 那怎么办 222 00:11:04,039 --> 00:11:07,419 IGV半导体涨了它再跌 223 00:11:07,419 --> 00:11:09,539 半导体跌了它再跌 224 00:11:09,539 --> 00:11:11,840 别的板块涨了它还在跌 225 00:11:11,840 --> 00:11:14,120 那它是不是除了跌就没有跌了 226 00:11:14,120 --> 00:11:15,950 哈哈就没有别的路了 227 00:11:15,950 --> 00:11:16,509 对不对 228 00:11:16,509 --> 00:11:18,350 这个就是跌太多了 229 00:11:18,350 --> 00:11:19,990 他这个是啊好啦 230 00:11:19,990 --> 00:11:20,769 这个怎么办呢 231 00:11:20,769 --> 00:11:21,759 怎么思考呢 232 00:11:21,759 --> 00:11:25,840 其实IGV呢上一次在跌破了107之后啊 233 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,120 本来上方这个地方当时是一个强压力 234 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:32,230 过了以后是上看上方的一个前高 235 00:11:32,230 --> 00:11:33,909 没过去打到这个地方 236 00:11:33,909 --> 00:11:35,830 最终呢这个地方又跌回来 237 00:11:35,830 --> 00:11:37,509 当时很快掉头跌回来 238 00:11:37,509 --> 00:11:39,519 跌回来以后陷入了一个震荡区域 239 00:11:39,519 --> 00:11:42,840 今天我把这个震荡区域很多区间给大家合了一下 240 00:11:42,840 --> 00:11:44,639 让大家一眼看清楚 241 00:11:44,639 --> 00:11:47,399 和大家也画了一下它的区间啊 242 00:11:48,490 --> 00:11:53,149 现在的区间呢是IGV的上眼在101~107 243 00:11:53,149 --> 00:11:57,870 下沿在80块3~83块一试驾 244 00:11:57,870 --> 00:12:00,710 下方有两个超强的支撑啊 245 00:12:00,710 --> 00:12:02,720 是非常强的横出来的区域 246 00:12:02,720 --> 00:12:04,679 这两个区域如果再跌破 247 00:12:04,679 --> 00:12:07,159 那下方那就直接就是很空很空的了啊 248 00:12:07,159 --> 00:12:08,320 那就不知道跌到哪里去了 249 00:12:08,320 --> 00:12:13,539 那就那就真的是唉这个整个软件板块要出现重大股灾了 250 00:12:13,539 --> 00:12:17,899 但现在的情况是向上十块钱92嘛 251 00:12:17,899 --> 00:12:20,950 向下差不多也是十块钱左右 252 00:12:20,950 --> 00:12:23,629 正好是一个中间位置啊 253 00:12:23,629 --> 00:12:25,450 这是一个区间震荡 254 00:12:25,450 --> 00:12:28,059 宽幅震荡区好 255 00:12:28,059 --> 00:12:29,259 那这里要看什么 256 00:12:29,259 --> 00:12:30,740 短线走强和走弱 257 00:12:30,740 --> 00:12:31,860 怎么去看待呢 258 00:12:31,860 --> 00:12:37,929 有一个小的契机来自于明天的甲骨文的财报 259 00:12:39,799 --> 00:12:42,600 好我给大家说一下甲骨文财报的情况啊 260 00:12:42,600 --> 00:12:45,399 就是目前他的一些进展 261 00:12:45,980 --> 00:12:51,299 其实呢这个甲骨文明天的财报后的盘后财报 262 00:12:51,299 --> 00:12:55,679 盘后财报的这个股价反应是个重要观察点啊 263 00:12:55,679 --> 00:12:57,840 请注意我说的不是甲骨文的财报本身 264 00:12:57,840 --> 00:12:59,909 它的财报本身不重要 265 00:12:59,909 --> 00:13:04,389 重要的是怎么反映这个财报股价怎么走 266 00:13:04,389 --> 00:13:08,750 因为现在呢甲骨文在以前最大的一个利空是什么呀 267 00:13:08,750 --> 00:13:12,639 最大的利空就是OpenAI嘛对吧 268 00:13:12,639 --> 00:13:14,919 他以前他和open i合作对吧 269 00:13:14,919 --> 00:13:17,019 因为open i承诺给他那么多合同 270 00:13:17,019 --> 00:13:20,340 他呢拿着合同就去贷款吧 271 00:13:20,340 --> 00:13:22,299 融资然后建数据中心 272 00:13:23,299 --> 00:13:30,219 那么现在呢是open o AI呢是摆脱了马斯克的诉讼官司之后啊 273 00:13:30,219 --> 00:13:34,178 他的IPO正在进行嘛啊有可能在90月份上市对吧 274 00:13:34,178 --> 00:13:39,190 所以这个对甲骨来讲是最大的信心层面的利好 275 00:13:39,190 --> 00:13:41,980 为什么最近你看它的股价走势还不错呢 276 00:13:41,980 --> 00:13:43,399 信心层面嘛对吧 277 00:13:43,399 --> 00:13:44,860 这个信息来自于哪里呢 278 00:13:44,860 --> 00:13:46,299 大家可以想一下啊 279 00:13:46,299 --> 00:13:50,480 以前呢是担心活干到一半对吧 280 00:13:50,480 --> 00:13:51,779 甲方跑路了啊 281 00:13:51,779 --> 00:13:52,789 结不了账 282 00:13:52,789 --> 00:13:55,450 现在呢是甲方拍着胸脯说 283 00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:56,190 兄弟哎 284 00:13:56,190 --> 00:13:57,850 你现在餐厅吃着等着啊 285 00:13:57,850 --> 00:14:00,669 我这个圈完钱回来就买单对吧 286 00:14:00,669 --> 00:14:02,889 你现在是有底气了呀 287 00:14:02,889 --> 00:14:06,570 所以呢甲骨文最近的状况看上去还不错 288 00:14:06,570 --> 00:14:07,690 就是这个原因 289 00:14:07,690 --> 00:14:09,570 但他的财报本身呢 290 00:14:09,570 --> 00:14:11,009 其实你说看点多嘛 291 00:14:11,009 --> 00:14:13,350 其实就是收到了多少钱的问题 292 00:14:13,350 --> 00:14:15,549 本身看点也没那么多 293 00:14:15,549 --> 00:14:21,750 那么它的看点他是需要未来逐渐的每个季度看他收到多少钱 294 00:14:21,750 --> 00:14:25,159 能不能够按照之前的计划把钱慢慢的收回来 295 00:14:25,159 --> 00:14:26,259 这个最重要 296 00:14:26,259 --> 00:14:28,200 因为他这不是一年两年的事 297 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:29,159 长期的事啊 298 00:14:29,159 --> 00:14:30,250 好多年的事 299 00:14:30,250 --> 00:14:33,610 所以甲骨文明天财报后的反应 300 00:14:33,610 --> 00:14:35,289 市场怎么去应对 301 00:14:35,289 --> 00:14:37,629 去计价这个软件计价 302 00:14:37,629 --> 00:14:40,210 甲骨文这个比较重要 303 00:14:40,210 --> 00:14:43,590 那么就说一下甲骨明天的期权波动了 304 00:14:43,590 --> 00:14:44,909 本周五啊 305 00:14:44,909 --> 00:14:49,090 就是明天财报后最近的一个期权结算日 306 00:14:49,090 --> 00:14:55,418 那么它的财报波动压注是205块钱上下26美元左右 307 00:14:55,418 --> 00:14:59,309 波动也就是超过了10% 308 00:14:59,309 --> 00:15:00,690 非常大 309 00:15:00,690 --> 00:15:03,690 如果它能够飞起来一点点 310 00:15:03,690 --> 00:15:09,009 那么对于整个软件来讲是一个短线的小的一个提振 311 00:15:09,009 --> 00:15:12,909 特别是呢今天甲骨文正好收到了200日均这个地方 312 00:15:12,909 --> 00:15:15,669 它的下方呢187到203 313 00:15:15,669 --> 00:15:17,889 又是非常强的一个支撑位置 314 00:15:17,889 --> 00:15:19,570 如果它往下跌26块钱 315 00:15:19,570 --> 00:15:21,809 那就直接跌到下方的这个位置去了 316 00:15:21,809 --> 00:15:24,230 那就短期就又走弱势啊 317 00:15:24,230 --> 00:15:25,149 就是走震荡趋势 318 00:15:25,149 --> 00:15:26,110 而不是走空啊 319 00:15:26,110 --> 00:15:26,950 走震荡趋势了 320 00:15:26,950 --> 00:15:31,970 因为好不容易突破了这个超强的压力区间上去了 321 00:15:31,970 --> 00:15:34,049 那么如果又跌回到180附近 322 00:15:34,049 --> 00:15:36,879 那这不就又得再来一轮嘛对吧 323 00:15:36,879 --> 00:15:38,279 那不是那不时间又耽误了吗 324 00:15:38,279 --> 00:15:39,340 那不就上不去了吗 325 00:15:39,340 --> 00:15:42,379 所以如果明天反正往上能够走个二十二十六块钱 326 00:15:42,379 --> 00:15:43,480 跑到230以上 327 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:44,730 就在这个区间 328 00:15:44,730 --> 00:15:48,049 那呢他至少啊能够跑到两百三两百四附近 329 00:15:48,049 --> 00:15:50,169 那不是离上沿突破就更近一步吗 330 00:15:50,169 --> 00:15:51,450 当然大家也要小心啊 331 00:15:51,450 --> 00:15:56,779 盘后之后他一个突破跑到大概两百三十三十呃 332 00:15:56,779 --> 00:15:58,340 30块钱左右或290左右 333 00:15:58,340 --> 00:15:59,320 又是个强压力啊 334 00:15:59,320 --> 00:16:01,659 所以呢还是在这个区间看这个区间啊 335 00:16:01,659 --> 00:16:02,559 小区间里边 336 00:16:02,559 --> 00:16:04,600 所以它呢是一个短线的 337 00:16:04,600 --> 00:16:06,799 对于软件板块的的这个小提振 338 00:16:06,799 --> 00:16:08,639 大的软件的走势 339 00:16:08,639 --> 00:16:11,120 IGV的走势现在是一个震荡趋势啊 340 00:16:11,120 --> 00:16:12,090 看他慢慢磨 341 00:16:12,090 --> 00:16:16,929 但是呢确实是比较好的一点是呃下方的这个强支撑啊 342 00:16:16,929 --> 00:16:24,190 这个区域我认为呢在没有特别重大的进一步的利空出现之前啊 343 00:16:24,190 --> 00:16:27,309 额其实想要跌破这个位置非常的难啊 344 00:16:27,309 --> 00:16:28,470 实话实讲非常的难 345 00:16:28,470 --> 00:16:29,629 就这个区域非常的难 346 00:16:29,629 --> 00:16:31,450 无非就真的到这横住了好吧 347 00:16:31,450 --> 00:16:33,870 所以这是IGV当前的情况 348 00:16:33,870 --> 00:16:36,328 也给大家更一下好 349 00:16:36,328 --> 00:16:38,168 那么说到IGV的板块里面 350 00:16:38,168 --> 00:16:39,328 还有一只股票啊 351 00:16:39,328 --> 00:16:40,009 要提一下 352 00:16:40,009 --> 00:16:41,009 好久没说了 353 00:16:41,009 --> 00:16:42,849 值得一说 354 00:16:43,600 --> 00:16:46,100 PRTR嘿嘿这支股票啊 355 00:16:46,100 --> 00:16:47,879 这只股票我们看它的走势啊 356 00:16:47,879 --> 00:16:50,740 这支股票是曾经的这个叫什么 357 00:16:50,740 --> 00:16:55,649 这个曾经的叫最大的就是就是东北王嘛 358 00:16:55,649 --> 00:16:56,570 从来不跌的股票 359 00:16:56,570 --> 00:16:58,250 是不是大家看这个这个东西 360 00:16:58,250 --> 00:17:00,929 你看这个这个曲这个斜率对吧 361 00:17:00,929 --> 00:17:01,809 从来不跌的 362 00:17:01,809 --> 00:17:02,330 涨了多久 363 00:17:02,330 --> 00:17:04,579 涨了两年好 364 00:17:04,579 --> 00:17:06,099 这根线大家看一下 365 00:17:06,099 --> 00:17:09,099 我画的这根线是很早之前画的 366 00:17:09,099 --> 00:17:10,230 不是今天画的啊 367 00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:11,849 那今天已经实现了啊 368 00:17:11,849 --> 00:17:13,369 跌了37%对吧 369 00:17:13,369 --> 00:17:16,029 从高点回撤37%好 370 00:17:16,029 --> 00:17:19,109 那么他的情况进展现在怎么样了 371 00:17:19,109 --> 00:17:19,869 合不合理了呢 372 00:17:19,869 --> 00:17:22,190 我们再跟一下 373 00:17:24,319 --> 00:17:28,240 他现在呢情况啊是在27年的前瞻 374 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:29,119 大概是94 375 00:17:29,119 --> 00:17:31,890 我这个里边呃其实有一点点的更新啊 376 00:17:31,890 --> 00:17:33,529 会往上上调一点点啊 377 00:17:33,529 --> 00:17:34,130 接近100 378 00:17:34,130 --> 00:17:35,750 我这里没给大家贴上来啊 379 00:17:35,750 --> 00:17:36,670 接近100哈 380 00:17:36,670 --> 00:17:37,609 所以跟大家讲一下 381 00:17:37,609 --> 00:17:39,829 这个地方是网上大概提了四五块钱 382 00:17:39,829 --> 00:17:41,390 也就是下沿大概是在60左右 383 00:17:41,390 --> 00:17:42,410 60~100左右 384 00:17:42,410 --> 00:17:44,398 那么呃是这么个情况 385 00:17:44,398 --> 00:17:46,979 所以呢它其实我们看一下 386 00:17:46,979 --> 00:17:50,369 在今天市价132的情况下 387 00:17:50,369 --> 00:17:52,710 前瞻PE是65倍 388 00:17:52,710 --> 00:17:55,029 我们之前一直都说他高估太多对吧 389 00:17:55,029 --> 00:17:55,950 前瞻太多 390 00:17:55,950 --> 00:17:57,670 他是之前最早的时候 391 00:17:57,670 --> 00:18:01,519 高价的时候是标普里边最贵的股票对吧 392 00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:02,319 最贵的股票 393 00:18:02,319 --> 00:18:04,359 但现在回来了啊 394 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:07,000 股价回来了很多很多就不是最贵的了啊 395 00:18:07,000 --> 00:18:08,500 那比它贵的多的是 396 00:18:08,500 --> 00:18:12,700 那现在他的情况是120~130 397 00:18:12,700 --> 00:18:17,380 这个地方呢属于仍旧是小幅高估区域啊 398 00:18:17,380 --> 00:18:19,529 高估了一年拐个头 399 00:18:19,529 --> 00:18:20,930 但是现在6月份啊 400 00:18:20,930 --> 00:18:21,670 差不多 401 00:18:21,670 --> 00:18:23,929 你说它合理吧 402 00:18:23,929 --> 00:18:28,750 那按照市场的大概大多数的情况来讲也不合理 403 00:18:28,750 --> 00:18:32,109 但你要是跟他自己的历史的光辉战绩比起来 404 00:18:32,109 --> 00:18:33,880 那确实合理的多啊 405 00:18:33,880 --> 00:18:36,759 因为毕竟增速在这摆着相当的快啊 406 00:18:36,759 --> 00:18:39,319 这个增速你让他高估一点点 407 00:18:39,319 --> 00:18:40,500 往前前瞻一点点 408 00:18:40,500 --> 00:18:42,359 那大家觉得这个计价合理吗 409 00:18:42,359 --> 00:18:43,500 对吧好 410 00:18:43,500 --> 00:18:46,339 那现在的情况就是121~130 411 00:18:46,339 --> 00:18:50,970 这个位置是一个大家可以观测的观测点啊 412 00:18:50,970 --> 00:18:55,309 就市价附近了已经而且也是前驱的几个低点附近打出来的 413 00:18:55,309 --> 00:18:56,569 大家注意一下 414 00:18:56,569 --> 00:19:00,980 未来几天会不会出现比较强力的止跌形态 415 00:19:00,980 --> 00:19:02,119 这是第一个点 416 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:05,059 假设这个点真的又跌破了 417 00:19:05,059 --> 00:19:07,200 那均值回归了97以下了 418 00:19:07,200 --> 00:19:08,400 就直接跑到回头 419 00:19:08,400 --> 00:19:09,279 那不挺好吗 420 00:19:09,279 --> 00:19:12,660 那对于想要长期去拿PLTR的朋友来讲 421 00:19:12,660 --> 00:19:15,400 那不是千载难逢的机会就出现了吗 422 00:19:15,400 --> 00:19:18,900 因为他就跑到了27年前瞻估值的上限下面了 423 00:19:18,900 --> 00:19:20,779 已经进入合理估值区间了 424 00:19:20,779 --> 00:19:23,269 这在他的自从转正之后啊 425 00:19:23,269 --> 00:19:25,230 业绩那很罕见的 426 00:19:25,230 --> 00:19:27,029 那你这多少年你都看不着的 427 00:19:27,029 --> 00:19:27,910 终于看见了对吧 428 00:19:27,910 --> 00:19:29,279 终于出现了一次 429 00:19:29,279 --> 00:19:32,000 那这种情况你要买价值的朋友 430 00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:33,539 那你这里就不要错过了 431 00:19:33,539 --> 00:19:34,839 你就不要错过了啊 432 00:19:34,839 --> 00:19:37,940 所以这个呢也是PRTR的一个潜在的新变化 433 00:19:37,940 --> 00:19:38,940 接近一点 434 00:19:38,940 --> 00:19:40,480 那就这里你等等止跌 435 00:19:40,480 --> 00:19:41,339 看看形态 436 00:19:41,339 --> 00:19:43,200 那么你想价值一点 437 00:19:43,200 --> 00:19:45,619 那你就向下方这个地方就不能再错过了 438 00:19:45,619 --> 00:19:46,509 好吧 439 00:19:46,509 --> 00:19:49,789 这是PLTR好 440 00:19:49,789 --> 00:19:53,869 然后呢讲完这个软件里面还有一个老大要讲一讲啊 441 00:19:53,869 --> 00:19:55,250 微软 442 00:19:57,579 --> 00:20:00,960 哎这也是这个被骂的比较惨的微软啊 443 00:20:00,960 --> 00:20:03,969 其实我也不太明白大家为什么要骂他呢 444 00:20:04,288 --> 00:20:08,169 股票股票正常的波动无非就是走得慢了点儿 445 00:20:08,169 --> 00:20:10,108 也挺也他也挺可怜的 446 00:20:10,108 --> 00:20:13,930 呃呃这个很多股票都经历过这种情况啊 447 00:20:13,930 --> 00:20:14,750 谷歌啊 448 00:20:14,750 --> 00:20:15,769 AMD啊 449 00:20:15,769 --> 00:20:19,230 包括现在正在还在挣扎的英伟达呀对吧 450 00:20:19,230 --> 00:20:20,869 当他们横盘的时候 451 00:20:20,869 --> 00:20:23,769 但曾经的辉煌大家都不记得了啊 452 00:20:23,769 --> 00:20:26,269 曾经的股价涨得快的时候啊 453 00:20:26,269 --> 00:20:27,650 大家都不记得了对吧 454 00:20:27,650 --> 00:20:29,569 那这一段的时候我记得很清楚 455 00:20:29,569 --> 00:20:32,329 当时呢微软怎么这么好走这么好 456 00:20:32,329 --> 00:20:33,490 怎么怎么涨这么多 457 00:20:33,490 --> 00:20:35,638 能不能追哼哼 458 00:20:35,638 --> 00:20:37,038 后来下跌回来 459 00:20:37,038 --> 00:20:38,479 我卖了以后不是卖过吗 460 00:20:38,479 --> 00:20:39,858 这上方卖过以后 461 00:20:39,858 --> 00:20:41,239 当时很多朋友说怎么可能呢 462 00:20:41,239 --> 00:20:42,078 还会跌那么多呢 463 00:20:42,078 --> 00:20:43,990 不可能你想的太美好了 464 00:20:43,990 --> 00:20:45,920 然后我400左右才加了仓 465 00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,440 然后呢现在400左右加纳仓 466 00:20:47,440 --> 00:20:48,940 这个地方又是很好的地方了 467 00:20:48,940 --> 00:20:50,500 然后很多朋友又在想 468 00:20:50,500 --> 00:20:51,819 那怎么办 469 00:20:51,819 --> 00:20:53,640 那他是不是又不行了哈 470 00:20:53,640 --> 00:20:58,339 有时候有时候我我特别想出一个那个网友评论区的合订本啊 471 00:20:58,339 --> 00:21:00,089 未来我准备出本书 472 00:21:00,089 --> 00:21:02,089 真的我真的有我真的有这个想法 473 00:21:02,089 --> 00:21:07,049 就是我准备把这个以后呢咱们在评论区很多年的这个评论啊 474 00:21:07,049 --> 00:21:11,049 其中很有代表性的就是从散户情绪的这个角度啊 475 00:21:11,049 --> 00:21:12,549 我们去做一个分析 476 00:21:12,549 --> 00:21:17,210 就是把它做一个和市场的大环境以及重要事件的这么一个结合 477 00:21:17,210 --> 00:21:18,638 包括网友评论 478 00:21:18,638 --> 00:21:21,239 我准备把它做成一个合集啊 479 00:21:21,239 --> 00:21:22,098 做成一本书 480 00:21:22,098 --> 00:21:23,558 到时候把它出版出来 481 00:21:23,558 --> 00:21:24,598 我觉得挺有意思的 482 00:21:24,598 --> 00:21:26,679 这是一个好像没有人做过的事情啊 483 00:21:26,679 --> 00:21:28,939 因为这里面能就能看到很多 484 00:21:28,939 --> 00:21:31,979 我相信特别是数据足够多的情况下 485 00:21:31,979 --> 00:21:36,579 完全可以去这给这个很多机构写研究报告的啊 486 00:21:36,579 --> 00:21:38,900 包括做情绪指标的可能都能用得上 487 00:21:38,900 --> 00:21:40,819 挺好玩的好 488 00:21:40,819 --> 00:21:42,900 简单来讲一下微软啊 489 00:21:43,710 --> 00:21:45,089 微软的情况这样啊 490 00:21:45,089 --> 00:21:48,210 首先位置本身这个下跌无所谓的啊 491 00:21:48,210 --> 00:21:49,109 位置没有变啊 492 00:21:49,109 --> 00:21:50,809 就是没有走破任何位置 493 00:21:50,809 --> 00:21:51,710 首先这是第一点 494 00:21:51,710 --> 00:21:52,670 大家要记住 495 00:21:52,670 --> 00:21:53,869 没有走破位置 496 00:21:53,869 --> 00:21:55,069 中间管他怎么走 497 00:21:55,069 --> 00:21:57,210 那就只是一个短线的问题 498 00:21:57,210 --> 00:21:59,009 所以位置没有变 499 00:21:59,009 --> 00:22:01,410 你呢已经有足够仓位的 500 00:22:01,410 --> 00:22:02,650 你比方说像我一样吧 501 00:22:02,650 --> 00:22:04,400 我的仓位已经足够了啊 502 00:22:04,400 --> 00:22:07,119 我呢是单只个股已经满仓了 503 00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:08,920 没有仓位再给它加了啊 504 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:10,079 我的持仓成本较低 505 00:22:10,079 --> 00:22:11,829 在251.1 506 00:22:11,829 --> 00:22:14,349 那么已经像跟我情况差不多的 507 00:22:14,349 --> 00:22:16,630 从过去一路跟着我也是这么做过来的 508 00:22:16,630 --> 00:22:17,650 你的成本肯定也不高 509 00:22:17,650 --> 00:22:18,549 也都很低 510 00:22:18,549 --> 00:22:23,099 那么耐心等待成本高的朋友 511 00:22:23,099 --> 00:22:24,700 很多朋友呢是最近这一波 512 00:22:24,700 --> 00:22:26,660 比如400多块钱才刚刚买的 513 00:22:26,660 --> 00:22:27,220 对不对 514 00:22:27,220 --> 00:22:28,559 很多吧 515 00:22:28,559 --> 00:22:31,460 那么你想再加仓的 516 00:22:31,460 --> 00:22:33,359 那么你要考虑你的仓位啊 517 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:34,690 首先你不能重 518 00:22:34,690 --> 00:22:36,730 你要给足够的容错空间 519 00:22:36,730 --> 00:22:37,890 我多次的说过 520 00:22:37,890 --> 00:22:39,450 如果你要400多块钱加仓 521 00:22:39,450 --> 00:22:42,960 你必须要预留375以下的仓位 522 00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:44,680 因为你的成本比较高 523 00:22:44,680 --> 00:22:47,990 我是因为成本比较低好 524 00:22:47,990 --> 00:22:50,329 那么成本比较高的朋友怎么办呢 525 00:22:50,329 --> 00:22:52,950 短期特别是有的朋友天天问 526 00:22:52,950 --> 00:22:55,829 担心微软的短期走势好 527 00:22:55,829 --> 00:22:59,039 今天我给大家提供一些方法啊 528 00:22:59,720 --> 00:23:02,839 如果你特别担心微软的短期走势 529 00:23:02,839 --> 00:23:03,519 说清楚啊 530 00:23:03,519 --> 00:23:07,019 短期短期特别是如果你想保护的 531 00:23:07,019 --> 00:23:09,240 防止你的浮亏也好 532 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:12,259 防止你短期的利润的回吐也好 533 00:23:12,259 --> 00:23:15,440 特别是防止大盘出现危险 534 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:16,388 大幅下跌 535 00:23:16,388 --> 00:23:18,288 拖累所有的股票 536 00:23:18,288 --> 00:23:20,088 包括微软一起下跌的 537 00:23:20,088 --> 00:23:22,328 因为我们说大盘如果集体下跌 538 00:23:22,328 --> 00:23:24,640 从量化的角度啊 539 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,119 从对冲基金的角度考虑 540 00:23:26,119 --> 00:23:28,160 集体减仓减配所有的板块 541 00:23:28,160 --> 00:23:29,500 大家可能跌幅都会跌 542 00:23:29,500 --> 00:23:32,930 只是呢跌幅大小不一样啊 543 00:23:32,930 --> 00:23:37,869 好那么你担心这种短线的有两个思路 544 00:23:38,109 --> 00:23:41,269 第一个如果你的仓位非常的小的 545 00:23:41,269 --> 00:23:43,549 比方说你也不够100股的对吧 546 00:23:43,549 --> 00:23:44,960 你就买了几股啊 547 00:23:44,960 --> 00:23:46,160 十股20股啊 548 00:23:46,160 --> 00:23:48,240 不够100股的同时 549 00:23:48,240 --> 00:23:50,359 你也不懂期权的 550 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:53,359 那么跌破392对吧 551 00:23:53,359 --> 00:23:54,180 收盘价啊 552 00:23:54,180 --> 00:23:55,480 跌破392 553 00:23:55,480 --> 00:23:57,469 你可以减部分的仓位 554 00:23:57,469 --> 00:23:59,769 减一部分的仓位不是清仓啊 555 00:23:59,769 --> 00:24:01,189 减一部分的仓位 556 00:24:01,189 --> 00:24:02,750 然后干嘛呢 557 00:24:02,750 --> 00:24:05,269 等到下方任何位置啊 558 00:24:05,269 --> 00:24:06,430 这几个位置在哪都行 559 00:24:06,430 --> 00:24:08,029 但是预计如果这个地方跌破的话 560 00:24:08,029 --> 00:24:10,289 他要走到375以下才能止跌啊 561 00:24:10,289 --> 00:24:12,609 你就在375以下的任何的地方 562 00:24:12,609 --> 00:24:16,609 你就把它买回来就可以了啊 563 00:24:16,609 --> 00:24:19,460 这个指的是不够100股的 564 00:24:19,460 --> 00:24:20,500 不懂期权的 565 00:24:20,500 --> 00:24:22,990 那么又想控制短期风险的 566 00:24:22,990 --> 00:24:24,329 还有一种情况是 567 00:24:24,329 --> 00:24:26,869 如果你的持仓非常的大对吧 568 00:24:26,869 --> 00:24:28,230 你说你有很多股 569 00:24:28,230 --> 00:24:30,909 你手上有几百几千几万股的微软 570 00:24:30,909 --> 00:24:33,749 然后呢你呢不想动正股 571 00:24:33,749 --> 00:24:35,628 没有很多朋友担心税务问题嘛 572 00:24:35,628 --> 00:24:37,308 但是咱们这里是没有考虑税务的 573 00:24:37,308 --> 00:24:37,709 没有讲 574 00:24:37,709 --> 00:24:38,909 从来不讲这个问题 575 00:24:38,909 --> 00:24:40,028 你如果真的担心 576 00:24:40,028 --> 00:24:41,108 反正不管什么原因吧 577 00:24:41,108 --> 00:24:42,619 你不想动正股对吧 578 00:24:42,619 --> 00:24:43,700 正股不变 579 00:24:43,700 --> 00:24:46,380 同时呢你想使用一些保护手段 580 00:24:46,380 --> 00:24:48,299 但你懂一点点期权 581 00:24:48,299 --> 00:24:50,799 至少理解期权的基本的一些东西对吧 582 00:24:50,799 --> 00:24:54,000 你在这里呢可以使用一个最基础的策略 583 00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,339 使用一个put spread 584 00:24:56,339 --> 00:25:00,869 就是一个叫做熊市价差策略啊 585 00:25:00,869 --> 00:25:02,990 熊市垂直价差策略 586 00:25:02,990 --> 00:25:04,529 价格选什么呢 587 00:25:04,529 --> 00:25:08,659 价格选在第一条腿在390 588 00:25:08,659 --> 00:25:12,118 第二条腿在360啊 589 00:25:12,118 --> 00:25:19,180 第二条腿在360这两个位置做一个熊市价差的保护 590 00:25:19,180 --> 00:25:22,619 时间放在8月份的月期权结算 591 00:25:22,619 --> 00:25:24,259 也就是两个月的时间 592 00:25:24,259 --> 00:25:25,980 为什么选在这个时间 593 00:25:25,980 --> 00:25:28,220 因为藏呃通常来讲 594 00:25:28,220 --> 00:25:32,200 9月份是季节性强势开始的日子 595 00:25:32,200 --> 00:25:36,849 同时也是中期大选极度预热的日子好吧 596 00:25:36,849 --> 00:25:40,180 所以放在六到78月份 597 00:25:40,180 --> 00:25:42,459 这三个月就是你因为是保护嘛 598 00:25:42,459 --> 00:25:42,939 放长一点 599 00:25:42,939 --> 00:25:45,618 你不就心里你可以你可以舒坦一点嘛 600 00:25:45,618 --> 00:25:46,699 至少你至少下跌 601 00:25:46,699 --> 00:25:48,150 你不怕了呀对吧 602 00:25:48,150 --> 00:25:52,690 大概成本在8~12块钱不等 603 00:25:52,690 --> 00:25:54,769 取决于你是什么时候开的仓对吧 604 00:25:54,769 --> 00:25:56,089 因为股价在波动嘛 605 00:25:56,089 --> 00:25:59,289 呃然后那个期权价格也在波动啊 606 00:25:59,289 --> 00:26:01,409 所以取决于你什么时候开仓 607 00:26:01,409 --> 00:26:02,689 好处是什么呢 608 00:26:02,689 --> 00:26:05,929 这个好处是它会保护392 609 00:26:05,929 --> 00:26:07,569 破位之后下跌 610 00:26:07,569 --> 00:26:11,450 一直到360块钱的30块钱的跌幅 611 00:26:11,450 --> 00:26:12,609 潜在的啊 612 00:26:12,609 --> 00:26:15,029 保护的空间只保护到360 613 00:26:15,029 --> 00:26:16,569 坏处是什么 614 00:26:16,569 --> 00:26:18,250 在这个区间之内 615 00:26:18,250 --> 00:26:20,250 如果跌破了360 616 00:26:20,250 --> 00:26:21,250 往下继续走 617 00:26:21,250 --> 00:26:22,599 你就保护不了了啊 618 00:26:22,599 --> 00:26:24,599 当然你要说你想更深的保护 619 00:26:24,599 --> 00:26:26,119 付更高的成本 620 00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,009 你往下保护到330也无所谓对吧 621 00:26:29,009 --> 00:26:31,028 那看你个人的成本愿意付出多少了啊 622 00:26:31,028 --> 00:26:35,130 这个成本它坏处是会增加你的持仓成本 623 00:26:35,130 --> 00:26:36,950 加到你的最终的持仓上面的 624 00:26:36,950 --> 00:26:39,309 你比方说我要做了一个这个保护 625 00:26:39,309 --> 00:26:40,089 花了十块钱 626 00:26:40,089 --> 00:26:42,250 那我的成本就变成了260 627 00:26:42,250 --> 00:26:44,309 一块钱就这么理解啊 628 00:26:44,309 --> 00:26:51,369 所以再次强调上面我刚才讲的保护策略是短期一两个月的事情 629 00:26:51,369 --> 00:26:53,609 和风险控制有关 630 00:26:53,609 --> 00:26:55,410 和让你买个心安 631 00:26:55,410 --> 00:26:56,390 买个好觉 632 00:26:56,390 --> 00:26:58,059 好睡眠有关 633 00:26:58,059 --> 00:27:02,970 那么中长期400的价格不用管 634 00:27:02,970 --> 00:27:07,490 400是微软的中长期的低价位置 635 00:27:07,490 --> 00:27:09,490 如果400块钱的微软 636 00:27:09,490 --> 00:27:11,829 你做长线你都拿不住 637 00:27:11,829 --> 00:27:17,190 那只能说你可能你的投资风格并不适合价值投资和长线啊 638 00:27:17,190 --> 00:27:19,150 我只能这么去解释了啊 639 00:27:19,150 --> 00:27:21,650 好这个呢是微软 640 00:27:21,650 --> 00:27:25,059 最后呢再带一下AMD 641 00:27:27,019 --> 00:27:29,640 AAMG的情况呢给大家做一下技术面更新啊 642 00:27:29,640 --> 00:27:31,779 490~520啊 643 00:27:31,779 --> 00:27:32,799 很好的数字啊 644 00:27:32,799 --> 00:27:34,539 490~520呃 645 00:27:34,539 --> 00:27:38,150 这个位置呢是一个小小的压力 646 00:27:38,150 --> 00:27:39,589 小小的压力 647 00:27:39,589 --> 00:27:44,130 下方442~453是另外一个小小的支撑 648 00:27:44,130 --> 00:27:45,529 473块钱 649 00:27:45,529 --> 00:27:48,009 475块钱在中间晃悠 650 00:27:48,009 --> 00:27:51,049 所以大家看AMD的以前给大家讲过 651 00:27:51,049 --> 00:27:54,619 大家可以看我右侧的关于它的支撑的排列 652 00:27:54,619 --> 00:27:57,059 最强的支撑很远很远 653 00:27:57,059 --> 00:27:58,859 中间这些中等支撑 654 00:27:58,859 --> 00:28:04,099 这两个特别是这两个中等支撑是大家要关注的这两个地方 655 00:28:04,099 --> 00:28:06,299 因为中等支撑是最容易演化成强支撑的啊 656 00:28:06,299 --> 00:28:07,359 只要横盘时间足够 657 00:28:07,359 --> 00:28:08,619 是完全可以的好吧 658 00:28:08,619 --> 00:28:10,059 所以这是MD 659 00:28:10,059 --> 00:28:12,940 至于英伟达没有什么变化 660 00:28:12,940 --> 00:28:14,980 175到这个地方 661 00:28:14,980 --> 00:28:16,640 我都给他写着长线了啊 662 00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:19,140 写的清清楚楚的好吧 663 00:28:19,140 --> 00:28:20,339 你还是那句话 664 00:28:20,339 --> 00:28:23,380 你同样你得考虑第一你的持仓成本 665 00:28:23,380 --> 00:28:27,019 第二你要不要你对它的长线的看法如何啊 666 00:28:27,019 --> 00:28:28,940 因为我对他的长线看法是比较乐观的 667 00:28:28,940 --> 00:28:30,680 不然也不会是我的第二大持仓啊 668 00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:33,500 当然我对他的这个成本也是比较低的 669 00:28:33,500 --> 00:28:34,880 相对来讲好吧 670 00:28:34,880 --> 00:28:36,319 我只有79块钱的成本 671 00:28:36,319 --> 00:28:38,119 10%的持仓啊 672 00:28:38,119 --> 00:28:43,059 剩下的我的持仓计划里边这些东西有一些加加减减的东西呢 673 00:28:43,059 --> 00:28:44,279 特别是台积电的减仓 674 00:28:44,279 --> 00:28:45,140 我都没动啊 675 00:28:45,140 --> 00:28:45,759 谷歌我说了 676 00:28:45,759 --> 00:28:46,599 我也不想动 677 00:28:46,599 --> 00:28:51,089 特斯拉呢他现在短线给大家带一句吧 678 00:28:51,089 --> 00:28:54,829 特斯拉的短线上我们讲了这个地方跌破了之后啊 679 00:28:54,829 --> 00:28:56,329 它因为破位了啊 680 00:28:56,329 --> 00:28:57,430 上个星期破位了 681 00:28:57,430 --> 00:28:59,259 这个地方你只能当反弹 682 00:28:59,259 --> 00:29:02,500 你不能在这个地方去顶着压力做不合适的啊 683 00:29:02,500 --> 00:29:07,940 无论是从做波段的角度还是做这个基本面的角度都是不合适的 684 00:29:07,940 --> 00:29:10,429 没有开仓机会基本上就属于好吧 685 00:29:10,429 --> 00:29:11,269 你就只能等着它 686 00:29:11,269 --> 00:29:12,489 最后再慢慢走趋势 687 00:29:12,489 --> 00:29:13,588 要么向上走趋势 688 00:29:13,588 --> 00:29:15,828 要么继续往下到这里 689 00:29:15,828 --> 00:29:16,169 哎 690 00:29:16,169 --> 00:29:20,669 315365你就知道你的机会又来了对吧 691 00:29:20,669 --> 00:29:22,319 所以呢你要这么去思考啊 692 00:29:22,319 --> 00:29:27,500 好然后呢其他的TRV我的加仓还在还差呀 693 00:29:27,500 --> 00:29:28,180 还下不去 694 00:29:28,180 --> 00:29:29,640 就差一点又没下去啊 695 00:29:29,640 --> 00:29:32,180 250265233233~242 696 00:29:32,180 --> 00:29:33,400 这还没有到呢 697 00:29:33,400 --> 00:29:35,319 然后SRG诶 698 00:29:35,319 --> 00:29:37,839 大家大家你们说你们讨不讨厌吧 699 00:29:37,839 --> 00:29:42,009 啊你就说讲一次反弹一次 700 00:29:42,009 --> 00:29:44,230 持续不讲它就往下掉 701 00:29:44,230 --> 00:29:45,990 刚刚到了这个区间 702 00:29:45,990 --> 00:29:46,990 我忍一手 703 00:29:46,990 --> 00:29:48,740 大家又忍不了了是吧 704 00:29:48,740 --> 00:29:49,960 那我最近不讲了啊 705 00:29:49,960 --> 00:29:50,859 今天再给大家看一眼 706 00:29:50,859 --> 00:29:52,019 又上到了426 707 00:29:52,019 --> 00:29:52,900 最近不讲了啊 708 00:29:52,900 --> 00:29:54,240 反正我是没买到 709 00:29:54,240 --> 00:29:58,829 等回头这个大家这个因为要再提醒一下它的趋势线 710 00:29:58,829 --> 00:30:00,150 下行趋势线也没突破的 711 00:30:00,150 --> 00:30:02,269 他的这个位置上方也是有压力的 712 00:30:02,269 --> 00:30:03,609 大家不要太乐观啊 713 00:30:03,609 --> 00:30:05,390 呵可能你抢是抢了点 714 00:30:05,390 --> 00:30:06,410 但我告诉大家 715 00:30:06,410 --> 00:30:07,789 因为这个压力是跌破了的 716 00:30:07,789 --> 00:30:09,029 上方看到没有震荡上沿 717 00:30:09,029 --> 00:30:11,358 在这里这波运气好的话 718 00:30:11,358 --> 00:30:13,538 能反弹到大概接近470好吧 719 00:30:13,538 --> 00:30:17,640 但是整个的趋势上没有彻底的明显好转 720 00:30:17,640 --> 00:30:20,980 当然资金介入上明显看到买盘还是比较强的 721 00:30:20,980 --> 00:30:22,480 不知道这是不是大家都买了啊 722 00:30:22,480 --> 00:30:24,269 反正我还差那么点意思 723 00:30:24,269 --> 00:30:25,309 不管怎么样吧 724 00:30:25,309 --> 00:30:25,750 买了的话 725 00:30:25,750 --> 00:30:27,349 我还是希望你反弹继续赚钱啊 726 00:30:27,349 --> 00:30:30,549 但是记得霍霍霍利诺戴维安回来以后让我再买点啊 727 00:30:30,549 --> 00:30:32,150 大家真的别抢别抢 728 00:30:32,150 --> 00:30:33,549 真的是讲了几次了 729 00:30:33,549 --> 00:30:34,309 讲了两次 730 00:30:34,309 --> 00:30:36,309 最近好像是两次接近位置 731 00:30:36,309 --> 00:30:38,109 讲了两次就买不到了 732 00:30:38,109 --> 00:30:39,309 那下一次整这么 733 00:30:39,309 --> 00:30:41,809 难道真的得让我偷偷摸摸的去买吗 734 00:30:41,809 --> 00:30:44,589 哎这支股票不过我这个数这么说也是开玩笑啊 735 00:30:44,589 --> 00:30:48,429 因为这支股票本身他其实机构热度就很高 736 00:30:48,429 --> 00:30:50,548 机构热度相当高的一只股票啊 737 00:30:50,548 --> 00:30:52,888 呃机构的调研报告也出的比较密 738 00:30:52,888 --> 00:30:55,169 所以本身就是一只长期的好股票 739 00:30:55,169 --> 00:30:58,849 大的问题就在于他的这个太高了啊 740 00:30:58,849 --> 00:30:59,789 前NPE太高了 741 00:30:59,789 --> 00:31:02,199 增速已经掉到中个位数了 742 00:31:02,199 --> 00:31:02,759 好吧 743 00:31:02,759 --> 00:31:04,638 这是实实在在的基本面问题 744 00:31:04,638 --> 00:31:05,858 这个是呼呃 745 00:31:05,858 --> 00:31:07,098 你规避不了的 746 00:31:07,098 --> 00:31:08,598 你想要安全边际高 747 00:31:08,598 --> 00:31:09,199 像我一样 748 00:31:09,199 --> 00:31:11,279 那就只能等待你要那么激进 749 00:31:11,279 --> 00:31:13,119 你就要搏它一个增速上调 750 00:31:13,119 --> 00:31:14,079 增速一上调 751 00:31:14,079 --> 00:31:17,068 你往往下405下方的就买不到对吧 752 00:31:17,068 --> 00:31:18,548 增速只要再往下调 753 00:31:18,548 --> 00:31:19,669 或者横在这个区间 754 00:31:19,669 --> 00:31:22,749 我相信在下方我是买得到的啊 755 00:31:22,749 --> 00:31:24,528 一定买得到的好 756 00:31:24,528 --> 00:31:29,019 这个呢就是今天带给大家的关于这个市场内容的一些更新 757 00:31:29,019 --> 00:31:32,039 希望呢最近这几天大家还是养足精神吧 758 00:31:32,039 --> 00:31:33,539 重头戏呢还在周五呢对吧 759 00:31:33,539 --> 00:31:35,599 周五之前市场可能还是比较混乱啊 760 00:31:35,599 --> 00:31:39,230 混乱大家就这个放松心态吧 761 00:31:39,230 --> 00:31:40,519 那有什么办法呢 762 00:31:40,519 --> 00:31:42,740 谁让这么大的这个事件 763 00:31:42,740 --> 00:31:47,000 又又又又积累着现在的整个几个重大的投资热点 764 00:31:47,000 --> 00:31:47,819 什么存储啊 765 00:31:47,819 --> 00:31:49,539 半导体啊对吧 766 00:31:49,539 --> 00:31:51,779 光啊等等混到一起哎 767 00:31:51,779 --> 00:31:53,420 这个就是群雄混战吧 768 00:31:53,420 --> 00:31:56,769 最后看谁资金抢夺更厉害一点好 769 00:31:56,769 --> 00:31:57,910 那我们今天到这儿啊 770 00:31:57,910 --> 00:32:00,190 如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助 771 00:32:00,190 --> 00:32:05,089 还是希望大家能够多多的帮忙点赞评论转发 772 00:32:05,089 --> 00:32:07,170 昨天的点赞率也非常的高啊 773 00:32:07,170 --> 00:32:08,009 感谢大家 774 00:32:08,009 --> 00:32:09,430 大家听完之后呢 775 00:32:09,430 --> 00:32:10,529 反正也听得开心 776 00:32:10,529 --> 00:32:12,509 大家就随手甩个赞嘛 777 00:32:12,509 --> 00:32:14,029 呃这个甩个赞嘛 778 00:32:14,029 --> 00:32:14,829 咱们都这么想的 779 00:32:14,829 --> 00:32:21,160 那叫做共同的这个叫做这个叫什么高能磁场对吧 780 00:32:21,160 --> 00:32:22,440 聚集的越多对吧 781 00:32:22,440 --> 00:32:23,859 你可能就心想事成了 782 00:32:23,859 --> 00:32:25,779 是不是要这么想啊 783 00:32:25,779 --> 00:32:27,420 好那今天到这 784 00:32:27,420 --> 00:32:30,019 咱们就明天的同一时间哈 785 00:32:30,019 --> 00:32:32,500 咱们看看半导体如何表现啊 786 00:32:32,500 --> 00:32:34,240 那么就明天再见
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| 用户 | 内容 | 点赞 | 回复 | 时间 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 樛木Bili | @总结猫 总结下私信发我 | 0 | 0 | 2026-06-10 11:25 |
| 魂軛 | 逢跌無腦加倉[doge] | 0 | 0 | 2026-06-10 10:52 |
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