市场面临三重考验。【2026-06-05】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经周末点评

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年6月5号星期五

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纳斯达克跌了4.18%

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我印象中伊朗战争下跌那段都没有一天跌这么多的

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上次跌这么多

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可能还是去年贸易大战的时候

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纳斯达克指数跌了1121.53点

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跌幅4.18%

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纳指100加上盘后跌的已经超过5%了

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从纳指的日K来看

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一根断崖式下跌的大阴线

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贯穿20天和30天均线

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中期趋势基本上宣告破位

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今天的大阴线导致从短期到中期均线全部失守

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指数因为离年限越来越远

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积累了调整动能

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需要紧急释放

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上周的周末

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我们说大盘已经九周连续上涨

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九阳神功啊

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本周呢坚持到星期五总算破功

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周线暴跌4.6%

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八之前怎么赚钱的

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今天全部吐回去

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关键是我之前股票也没多少半导体

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所以也没赚很多钱

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跌幅2.64%

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标普下跌超过2%

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就算大跌的

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所以今天这根阴线算是一个大阴线

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不过说实在的

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美股大盘暴跌时是要跌到熔断盘中跌7%才算恐怖

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咱们咬咬牙

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暂且称之为正常的技术调整

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最近可能我们这个节目的标题连续看空

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导致观众说你怎么标题都是悲观的文字啊

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悲观的标题并不是常态啊

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大部分时间里我还是比较乐观的

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悲观标题连续出来之后

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说明我对股市的看法偏空

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悲观预期兑现了

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道指跌的少一点

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跌了1.35%

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道指算是没有出现重大拐点信号的指数了

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但是只要标普和纳指拐头调整个五六天

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道指也难以独善其身

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大盘指数是方向基本相同的

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只是波动率略有不同而已

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三大指数都处于短线涨幅过大

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偏离长期均线乖离率过大

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有技术性回调需要的阶段

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技术性回调不是重大问题

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跌多了反弹就是了

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但最近两天风险因素上升

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市场面临三大考验

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我认为股市面临的利空因素并不是一次性利空

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而是持续性的

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所以在接下来股市方向研判当中

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就需要思考这些利空会带来多大的调整压力

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第一个考验是加息预期

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今天非农数据大超预期

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导致年内加息概率大幅上升

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5月份非农新增人数经季节性调整后新增了17.2万

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这个数字远高于经济学家预期

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学者是怎么预期的呢

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上周说预期是9.8万

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前天上调到10万

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但是公布的数字远超过预期值

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失业率维持在4.3%的水平

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符合预期

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失业率并没有显著上升

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这对美联储来说

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充分就业这个政策目标基本稳定

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如果失业率上升

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美联储才需要考虑降息以刺激就业

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当充分就业不是主要问题时

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通胀的回升就是政策更加关注的风险

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劳工局还上修了3月和4月数据

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将之前两个月的非农提高

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4月份的非农上修到了17.9万

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过去三个月劳动力市场相对紧俏

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非农超预期所推导出来的结果就是加息在路上啊

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市场预期今年基本上不存在降息的概率啦

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现在的利率3.5%到3.75%之间

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可能就是阶段性低点

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非农提高了年内加息的概率

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在概率工具图表上

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今年12月末各个利率档次的概率中

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概率最高的是加息一次

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有42.7%的机会

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其次是维持利率不变

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有28.2%的机会

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另外有22.8%和4.9%的概率是加息两次到三次

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如果今年加息一次的预期

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在未来几个月逐渐增加

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甚至有两三次的加息预期时

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股市进入阶段性熊市的风险就比较大

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美股有两种下跌模式

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最常见的是重大系统性风险出现

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比如战争疫情

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金融危机等

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这种下跌模式有明确的主要原因

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引起下跌的主要外部因素消退时

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股市立即V型反转

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另一种是下跌原因不太明确

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但跌起来时间挺长

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比如2022年跌了大半年

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2022年出了什么事呢

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当时在预期加息周期要开始

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通胀在那一年是比较严重的

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鲍威尔拖呀拖拖到年底才开始暴利加息

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在通胀高位时

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市场对加息的预期与日俱增

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加息前半年就开始进入熊市

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加息落地后才止跌

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那么现在加息预期又开始了

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而真正加息落地可能要在四季度

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股市对加息是非常敏感的

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因为资金面是股市上涨和下跌的最重要的原因

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投资讲的是价值

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公司业绩怎么样

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每股收益多少

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估值是几倍

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但是估值与利率相关

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当无风险利率低时

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估值可以高一点

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当利率上升时

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股市的吸引力下降

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对于科技股来说

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他们对利率更加敏感

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科技股的估值是对未来现金流的贴现

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无风险利率上升

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科技股的估值就会大幅压缩

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所以在2022年加息周期开始前半年

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纳斯达克科技股是一听加息就下跌的

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大约12天以后

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股市一时半会儿可能会有避险情绪好

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那第二重考验就是半导体板块涨多了

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引来了空头

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空投

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来自两个方面

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获利盘兑现压力大

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做空的空投也集结了火力

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获利盘盈利挺快的

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费城半导体指数一个月翻倍

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赚着快钱的人手痒

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拿不住啊

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就要兑现利润

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昨天桥水基金的达利欧说

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当人们集中兑现利润时

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人工智能泡沫就会破灭

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这就像银行挤兑

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平时大家存银行不去取钱

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银行留点钱就足够人们取款的了

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剩下大笔资金拿去贷款和买债券

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要是哪一天银行出问题

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大家全部排队取款

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银行被挤兑

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马上就撑不住

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人工智能股票涨多了

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股东都不去卖股票

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股价还不至于跌太多

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如果都去卖股票

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兑现利润

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卖盘大于买盘

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股价就会大幅回撤

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美股还有空投有做空工具

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他们觉得股价高了

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可以借股票卖出或者买看跌期权

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大空头MICROBERRY之前就买明年到期的半导体看跌期权

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天天烧香等半导体暴跌呢

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博通可能是本轮美股调整第一块多米诺骨牌

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本周博通披露了超过预期的财报

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但是CEO拒绝对2027年及以后的长期前景做出更乐观的判断

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于是博通股价在财报后大跌

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博通财报前高点495

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今天收盘385

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两天跌了22%

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除了获利盘

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随便卖出都是盈利之外

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做空的力量也集中爆发了

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附图软件卖空数据柱状图显示

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最近一周以来

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博通的每日卖空数量激增

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空投选择博通作为突破口

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连带半导体AI和科技板块一起形成牵一发而动全身的作用

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博通市值2万亿

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是大盘权重股

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此股遭遇大量空单集结

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说明空头力量显著加强

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如果把AI行情和互联网泡沫相提并论

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人们会很自然地将英伟达和当年的龙头思科做类比

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思科在互联网泡沫破灭后大跌接近90%

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然后用了20年才重回当年的高点

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如果英伟达是当年的思科

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那半导体板块的风险就太大了

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打英伟达当然不是思科空投

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也不敢直接空英伟达

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而是找了个博通下手

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原因是英伟达在AI领域暂时没有对手

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未来几年的需求能见度也是清晰的

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基本面没有什么问题

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不过接下来要说的这个风险更加不容忽视

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美股的第三重考验是下周SPACEX的上市

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实际上资金压力从昨天就开始了

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申购space as需要资金

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资金不会凭空出现

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要么就另外入京来一笔钱或者是融资

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要么就要卖出股票筹集资金

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昨天下午开始

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不少券商向客户发送邮件

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让大家去账户上申购

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SPACEX申购能种多少股

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暂且不清楚

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但是钱要实打实的认缴

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比如申购1万股就要打款162万美元

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账上要是没钱的话

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那就要先转钱进去

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不然就得卖点股票弄钱

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散户卖股票来申购spaces

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这个资金压力不是发生在IPO当天

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而是从昨天到6月11号之间

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资金面的压力可能在6月11号之前一直存在

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资金面压力

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还体现在币圈也崩

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比特币跌破6万

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除了它本身步入熊市的趋势之外

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全球市场资金面告急也是一个原因

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比特币不赚钱了

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但AI赚钱呀

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所以投机资金就把钱从币圈转出

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换个赛道炒AI半导体

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因此比特币跌破长期趋势线

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进入熊市

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但比特币破6万也说明资金面压力大

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下周是SPACEX上市

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融资750亿

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但这只是刚刚开始要钱的大佬

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一大堆人在排队

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后面还有anthropic OpenAI

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哎

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这都是大规模融资

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都是万亿市值

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来势汹汹

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这三家合起来要给美股增加4万亿的市值

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如果只是新公司上市

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给市场提供一些新的投资渠道也就罢了

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老牌科技明星股也开始扎堆增发股票

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今天meta考虑股权融资

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这是继谷歌之后又一个明星巨头从市场上要钱

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科技明星股以前是常年回购股票

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这构成美股长期牛市的理由之一

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现在他们改变方向

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回购变增发

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那这是一个非常不好的信号

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谷歌发行800亿美元的新股

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其中400亿随行就市

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按市场行情慢慢攻股

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另外有100亿由伯克希尔买走

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但股神加仓谷歌竟然谷歌还跌

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说明了什么

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说明增发股票不是市场所喜欢的

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上市公司应该拿钱持续回购股票

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同样持有一股股票含金量越来越高

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占股权比例提高

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股票更有价值

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所以股票才会涨嘛

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如果上市公司开始增发股票

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股票越来越多

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一股所占股权比例越来越少

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股票价值就下降了

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谷歌搞股权融资

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钱要拿来建数据中心

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说明现金流吃紧

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自身造血还不够

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还要靠外部输血

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meta1看好嘛

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找市场要钱

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那我也要

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那还有报道称

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梅塔正在考虑数百亿美元的股权融资

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以支持其人工智能基础设施投资

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那么这些巨无霸开口要钱

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市场资金面压力会很大

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别看1万亿

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2万亿的股票好多个

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这些价值都是基于每天区区几百亿美元的成交量基础上的

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每天成交最多的个股

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我看交易金额就200亿到700亿吧

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并不是1万亿全部成交的几百亿的交易决定一只股票有几万亿的价值

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如果上市公司要抽走几百亿

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对市场的吸血是立竿见影的

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spaces等巨头上市对指数的短期和中期影响可能都是利空的

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这是一场市场流动性的考验

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长期来看

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科技巨头调入指数是指数在超长周期中保持增长的重要原因

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所以spaces等明星股最终会对指数形成长期贡献

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但中短期可能会构成资金面压力和估值重塑的压力

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亏损5.16%

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净值回到20万出头

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下周再跌一跌

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又回到一开头了

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赚钱轮不到我赔钱倒是榜上有名

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特斯拉的股东可能在抛股票筹钱

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准备打新SPACEX

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所以股价跌的都破位了

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马斯克每天风风火火的

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但是他的特斯拉和spaces可不容易薅到羊毛啊

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来周末咱准备一顶钢盔

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以迎接下周的重重一击

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好吧

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今天的节目就分享到这里

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感谢大家收看

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祝大家周末愉快

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我们下期节目再见

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拜拜

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