返回列表

【Daniel Pronk】在历史高点买入亚马逊?你需要知道的所有真相

BV1wKRxB2Eor · 浑水摸鱼清源
在B站观看
发布时间 2026-05-06 17:00
时长 22分1秒
播放 715
点赞 10
评论 5
弹幕 -

学习笔记

基于字幕生成,时间引用会以小徽标显示。
等待生成结果

资料区

原始字幕、评论和弹幕默认折叠,作为学习核查材料。
原始字幕
1
00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:04,139
所以相信大家已经注意到亚马逊股票近期表现强劲

2
00:00:04,139 --> 00:00:08,009
过去一个月股价上涨近40%

3
00:00:08,009 --> 00:00:10,769
公司刚刚公布了出色的Q1财报

4
00:00:10,769 --> 00:00:16,140
如今这家企业每天都有新动态传出

5
00:00:16,140 --> 00:00:17,219
在今天的视频中

6
00:00:17,219 --> 00:00:18,339
我想分享为什么

7
00:00:18,339 --> 00:00:23,739
我在一季度财报后大幅增持了亚马逊持仓

8
00:00:23,739 --> 00:00:26,760
大家应该能看出我对此非常看涨

9
00:00:26,760 --> 00:00:32,310
起初我认为亚马逊股票根本不该下跌

10
00:00:32,310 --> 00:00:34,229
财报公布后的第一天

11
00:00:34,229 --> 00:00:35,509
当股价下跌时

12
00:00:35,509 --> 00:00:39,070
我抓住机会增持亚马逊股份

13
00:00:39,070 --> 00:00:40,789
我大幅加仓

14
00:00:40,789 --> 00:00:42,250
在今天的视频中再次

15
00:00:42,250 --> 00:00:45,600
我将详细解读Q1财报并解释原因

16
00:00:45,600 --> 00:00:51,000
在我看来亚马逊股票至今仍具备投资价值

17
00:00:51,000 --> 00:00:52,100
言归正传

18
00:00:52,100 --> 00:00:54,149
我们直接进入正题吧

19
00:00:54,149 --> 00:00:54,490
这里

20
00:00:54,490 --> 00:00:58,789
我们可以看到亚马逊营收增长17%至1815亿美元

21
00:00:58,789 --> 00:00:59,250
第一季度

22
00:00:59,250 --> 00:01:02,509
按本地货币计算

23
00:01:02,509 --> 00:01:04,900
但实际营收增长15%

24
00:01:04,900 --> 00:01:07,459
这一点稍后会很重要

25
00:01:07,459 --> 00:01:10,420
接着AWS销售额同比增长28%

26
00:01:10,420 --> 00:01:14,478
达到376亿美元

27
00:01:14,478 --> 00:01:18,858
这表明亚马逊AWS业务仍在加速增长

28
00:01:18,858 --> 00:01:20,000
规模显著扩大

29
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,959
营业利润增至239亿美元

30
00:01:21,959 --> 00:01:23,780
第一季度

31
00:01:23,780 --> 00:01:26,480
相比去年同期的184亿美元

32
00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,560
营业利润同比增长30%

33
00:01:29,560 --> 00:01:30,420
同比来看

34
00:01:30,420 --> 00:01:34,200
北美营业利润增长43%

35
00:01:34,200 --> 00:01:37,400
国际业务增长40%

36
00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:40,780
AWS营业利润增长23%

37
00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:46,099
这意味着AWS营业利润率同比略有下降

38
00:01:46,099 --> 00:01:46,799
继续看下去

39
00:01:46,799 --> 00:01:51,200
过去12个月营业现金流增长30%

40
00:01:51,200 --> 00:01:53,269
这简直惊人

41
00:01:53,269 --> 00:01:54,909
然而同时

42
00:01:54,909 --> 00:01:57,189
自由现金流降至120亿美元

43
00:01:57,189 --> 00:01:59,650
过去12个月

44
00:01:59,650 --> 00:02:00,450
首先

45
00:02:00,450 --> 00:02:02,409
仅从 headline 数据来看

46
00:02:02,409 --> 00:02:05,370
我认为这是亚马逊出色的财报

47
00:02:05,370 --> 00:02:10,718
我最关注的指标是公司营业现金流

48
00:02:10,718 --> 00:02:14,658
因为尽管超大规模云服务商持续投入资本开支

49
00:02:14,658 --> 00:02:20,008
我真正想看的是业务运营是否持续产生更多现金流

50
00:02:20,008 --> 00:02:22,508
因为这将反映

51
00:02:22,508 --> 00:02:25,150
如果他们投入的资本支出确实产生了回报

52
00:02:25,150 --> 00:02:30,189
因此看到亚马逊运营现金流增长30%正是

53
00:02:30,189 --> 00:02:31,840
正是我期待看到的结果

54
00:02:31,840 --> 00:02:34,840
这也表明资本支出正在见效

55
00:02:34,840 --> 00:02:37,810
业务的实际现金流潜力在增长

56
00:02:37,810 --> 00:02:42,050
但这以牺牲公司自由现金流为代价

57
00:02:42,050 --> 00:02:45,370
我们可以根据他们报告的自由现金流指标看出

58
00:02:45,370 --> 00:02:49,129
过去一年仅产生12亿美元

59
00:02:49,129 --> 00:02:51,250
亚马逊现在宣称

60
00:02:51,250 --> 00:02:52,409
自由现金流不重要

61
00:02:52,409 --> 00:02:54,389
我们全力投入

62
00:02:54,389 --> 00:02:56,370
AI建设AWS

63
00:02:56,370 --> 00:03:01,169
并将所有自由现金流重新投入资本支出和增长

64
00:03:01,169 --> 00:03:03,699
我现在确实希望看到这一点

65
00:03:03,699 --> 00:03:07,300
以便亚马逊能持续把握眼前机遇

66
00:03:07,300 --> 00:03:08,520
接下来切换到下一张截图

67
00:03:08,520 --> 00:03:11,689
这是亚马逊ceo安迪·贾西的引述

68
00:03:11,689 --> 00:03:13,949
AWS增长28%

69
00:03:13,949 --> 00:03:18,199
在庞大基数上实现15个季度最快增速

70
00:03:18,199 --> 00:03:23,120
我们的芯片业务营收突破200亿美元,同比三位数增长

71
00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:27,539
广告业务过去12个月营收达700亿美元

72
00:03:27,539 --> 00:03:31,080
门店销量增长15%

73
00:03:31,080 --> 00:03:34,650
这是新冠封锁结束后最高增速

74
00:03:34,650 --> 00:03:38,110
我们正处于人生中重大转折点

75
00:03:38,110 --> 00:03:39,750
我们处于有利位置引领变革

76
00:03:39,750 --> 00:03:42,990
我对未来客户的发展充满乐观

77
00:03:42,990 --> 00:03:46,199
我和亚马逊ceo安迪·贾西完全认同

78
00:03:46,199 --> 00:03:47,120
有趣的是

79
00:03:47,120 --> 00:03:51,949
亚马逊各业务板块均高效运转

80
00:03:51,949 --> 00:03:56,430
他们正真正抓住人工智能的转折点

81
00:03:56,430 --> 00:03:59,189
我认为亚马逊就像一只潜力股

82
00:03:59,189 --> 00:04:04,009
市场对其业务所见的ai进展反应平淡

83
00:04:04,009 --> 00:04:08,689
尽管它是人工智能的最大受益者之一

84
00:04:08,689 --> 00:04:10,930
现在来看他们的第二季度指引

85
00:04:10,930 --> 00:04:16,129
预计营收将达到约1960亿美元

86
00:04:16,129 --> 00:04:18,170
或增长16%至19%

87
00:04:19,370 --> 00:04:23,899
该指引还预计受外汇不利影响

88
00:04:23,899 --> 00:04:27,860
营业利润预计在200亿至240亿美元之间

89
00:04:27,860 --> 00:04:32,970
这意味着营业利润同比再次增长

90
00:04:32,970 --> 00:04:33,269
现在

91
00:04:33,269 --> 00:04:36,180
我认为这份指引实际上很积极

92
00:04:36,180 --> 00:04:40,339
因为亚马逊第一季度营收增长15%

93
00:04:40,339 --> 00:04:43,579
在没有外汇助力的情况下

94
00:04:43,579 --> 00:04:44,879
在第二季度

95
00:04:44,879 --> 00:04:47,959
他们预计面临小幅外汇逆风

96
00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:49,310
但影响非常轻微

97
00:04:49,310 --> 00:04:52,769
仍预计营收增长约17.5%

98
00:04:52,769 --> 00:04:54,930
在区间中值

99
00:04:54,930 --> 00:05:01,350
这意味着季度环比营收增速将持续加速

100
00:05:01,350 --> 00:05:03,459
在外汇中性基础上

101
00:05:07,779 --> 00:05:10,209
这似乎不是很多人在讨论的话题

102
00:05:10,209 --> 00:05:12,009
但我认为这非常看涨

103
00:05:12,009 --> 00:05:13,798
尤其是在亚马逊的规模下

104
00:05:13,798 --> 00:05:14,358
好的,现在

105
00:05:14,358 --> 00:05:15,499
接下来切换到下一张截图

106
00:05:15,499 --> 00:05:18,619
我觉得这张图非常有趣且值得指出

107
00:05:18,619 --> 00:05:21,180
这也是我认为很多人未提及的要点

108
00:05:21,180 --> 00:05:26,420
我们可以看到北美销售的营业利润率仅增长了1个百分点

109
00:05:26,420 --> 00:05:28,220
同比增长6%

110
00:05:28,220 --> 00:05:28,740
然而

111
00:05:28,740 --> 00:05:30,240
这导致了四

112
00:05:30,240 --> 00:05:33,779
北美营业利润增长了2%

113
00:05:33,779 --> 00:05:38,139
整体营业利润净增28亿美元

114
00:05:38,139 --> 00:05:41,490
这展示了亚马逊正在释放的运营杠杆效应

115
00:05:41,490 --> 00:05:44,730
因为亚马逊创造了巨额营收

116
00:05:44,730 --> 00:05:50,120
即使利润率小幅提升,也显著提升了盈利能力

117
00:05:50,120 --> 00:05:55,379
下一张截图显示亚马逊各业务板块及各板块营收增长率

118
00:05:55,379 --> 00:06:00,420
这里显示第三方卖家服务营收达41.6亿美元

119
00:06:00,420 --> 00:06:03,269
同比增长14%

120
00:06:03,269 --> 00:06:08,170
这意味着其年同比增长大幅加速

121
00:06:08,170 --> 00:06:11,350
广告服务营收增长2

122
00:06:11,350 --> 00:06:15,029
4%且同样加速增长

123
00:06:15,029 --> 00:06:20,939
会员服务营收同比增长15%且再次加速

124
00:06:20,939 --> 00:06:23,079
AWS营收增长28

125
00:06:23,079 --> 00:06:26,899
如我们之前所见并实现年同比增长加速

126
00:06:26,899 --> 00:06:31,810
这些均为季度营收超100亿美元的庞大业务

127
00:06:31,810 --> 00:06:35,500
也是亚马逊高度盈利的业务板块

128
00:06:35,500 --> 00:06:39,079
所有业务当前均呈现营收加速增长

129
00:06:39,079 --> 00:06:41,120
我知道当人们谈论亚马逊时

130
00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:45,600
往往过度聚焦于AWS并几乎只谈AWS

131
00:06:45,600 --> 00:06:48,959
但亚马逊实际上拥有多个大型

132
00:06:48,959 --> 00:06:53,038
高度盈利且当前加速增长的业务

133
00:06:53,038 --> 00:06:56,418
我认为这对亚马逊极为看涨

134
00:06:56,418 --> 00:07:00,288
显示公司真正全面高效运转

135
00:07:00,288 --> 00:07:04,620
下一张截图专门展示AWS季度营收

136
00:07:04,620 --> 00:07:07,620
及AWS营收的同比增长率

137
00:07:07,620 --> 00:07:13,850
可清晰看到AWS正经历显著的增速反弹

138
00:07:13,850 --> 00:07:15,750
并实现28.4%的同比增长

139
00:07:15,750 --> 00:07:16,449
在376亿美元季度营收基础上

140
00:07:16,449 --> 00:07:18,339
同比增长4

141
00:07:18,339 --> 00:07:18,899
7%

142
00:07:18,899 --> 00:07:21,180
60亿美元季度营收

143
00:07:21,180 --> 00:07:22,879
这简直令人难以置信

144
00:07:22,879 --> 00:07:27,480
看来AWS营收增速将持续加速

145
00:07:27,480 --> 00:07:31,240
因为市场需求极为旺盛

146
00:07:31,240 --> 00:07:34,620
这也是亚马逊资本支出的重点方向

147
00:07:34,620 --> 00:07:36,459
将持续增长并扩展

148
00:07:36,459 --> 00:07:37,449
AWS

149
00:07:37,449 --> 00:07:39,949
我还发现X平台上的这张惊人图表

150
00:07:39,949 --> 00:07:41,759
这是由jaen ball制作的

151
00:07:41,759 --> 00:07:43,779
我建议大家去关注并关注他

152
00:07:43,779 --> 00:07:46,060
因为他每个季度都会更新这些图表

153
00:07:46,060 --> 00:07:50,538
这些图表显示的是Azure的百分比增长和净增长

154
00:07:50,538 --> 00:07:52,970
谷歌云和AWS

155
00:07:52,970 --> 00:07:57,649
我们可以清楚看到谷歌云的同比季度增长遥遥领先

156
00:07:57,649 --> 00:08:00,850
同比增长率达到63%

157
00:08:00,850 --> 00:08:02,569
这简直令人难以置信

158
00:08:02,569 --> 00:08:05,529
AWS也显著加速增长

159
00:08:05,529 --> 00:08:10,560
但Azure的增长速度不如AWS和谷歌云

160
00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:14,829
这也是为什么我认为微软股票在财报后表现不佳

161
00:08:14,829 --> 00:08:17,449
谷歌的财报数据确实非常亮眼

162
00:08:17,449 --> 00:08:18,230
再说一遍

163
00:08:18,230 --> 00:08:21,550
谷歌云同比增长63%

164
00:08:21,550 --> 00:08:26,259
这也是谷歌股票在财报后大幅上涨的主要原因

165
00:08:26,259 --> 00:08:27,720
但在财报发布后

166
00:08:27,720 --> 00:08:31,819
现在关注净收入增长额

167
00:08:31,819 --> 00:08:33,100
谷歌依然领先

168
00:08:33,100 --> 00:08:35,568
但AWS紧随其后

169
00:08:35,568 --> 00:08:39,168
谷歌云是从更小的基数起步增长

170
00:08:39,168 --> 00:08:42,908
这让数据看起来格外惊人

171
00:08:42,908 --> 00:08:43,849
他们确实很惊人

172
00:08:43,849 --> 00:08:47,970
但AWS本季度的表现同样强劲

173
00:08:47,970 --> 00:08:50,009
基于净收入增长

174
00:08:50,009 --> 00:08:53,960
它是在更大的基数上新增收入

175
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,299
这也是我看到亚马逊股价下跌感到震惊的原因

176
00:08:57,299 --> 00:08:58,850
在财报发布后

177
00:08:58,850 --> 00:09:00,570
而谷歌股价却飙升

178
00:09:00,570 --> 00:09:06,000
因为实际的年度持续收入增长几乎与谷歌相当

179
00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:07,779
Azure表现亮眼

180
00:09:07,779 --> 00:09:08,139
不过

181
00:09:08,139 --> 00:09:09,179
仅增长了5%

182
00:09:09,179 --> 00:09:12,980
本季度新增年度持续收入10亿美元

183
00:09:12,980 --> 00:09:13,860
总体而言

184
00:09:13,860 --> 00:09:14,600
我确实相信

185
00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:20,480
这表明各业务的资本支出持续产生回报

186
00:09:20,480 --> 00:09:21,779
现在进入财报摘要

187
00:09:21,779 --> 00:09:23,940
这里有一些亮点

188
00:09:23,940 --> 00:09:24,299
安迪

189
00:09:24,299 --> 00:09:25,078
杰西说

190
00:09:25,078 --> 00:09:30,299
AWS现在年化收入达到1500亿美元

191
00:09:30,299 --> 00:09:34,659
能在如此庞大的基数上快速增长实属罕见

192
00:09:34,659 --> 00:09:35,440
在这个规模上

193
00:09:35,440 --> 00:09:37,879
上次看到这种增速

194
00:09:37,879 --> 00:09:40,200
AWS的规模只有现在的一半

195
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:46,220
我们从未见过技术像人工智能这样快速增长

196
00:09:46,220 --> 00:09:48,360
AWS上线三年后

197
00:09:48,360 --> 00:09:49,480
前三年人工智能浪潮的收入为5

198
00:09:49,480 --> 00:09:53,559
800万美元

199
00:09:53,559 --> 00:09:58,379
AWS的人工智能收入年化超过150亿美元

200
00:09:58,379 --> 00:10:01,100
近两百六十倍更大

201
00:10:01,100 --> 00:10:05,619
Bedrock客户支出环比增长170%

202
00:10:05,619 --> 00:10:10,730
第一季度处理的token量超过所有往年总和

203
00:10:10,730 --> 00:10:16,320
因此Andy Jassy只是在说AWS的AI业务正在爆炸式增长

204
00:10:16,320 --> 00:10:20,568
其增速远超AWS整体业务

205
00:10:20,568 --> 00:10:23,928
相较于这两项业务在同一时间点的规模

206
00:10:23,928 --> 00:10:28,929
Bedrock单季度实现170%营收增长

207
00:10:28,929 --> 00:10:33,568
第一季度处理的token量超过所有往年总和

208
00:10:33,568 --> 00:10:34,308
再次说明

209
00:10:34,308 --> 00:10:39,539
这表明AWS的AI业务绝对处于爆发状态

210
00:10:39,539 --> 00:10:40,799
接下来切换到下一张截图

211
00:10:40,799 --> 00:10:45,100
我们的芯片业务持续快速增长,规模远超

212
00:10:45,100 --> 00:10:50,559
许多人的预期,Q1实现近40%季度环比增长

213
00:10:50,559 --> 00:10:54,379
年度营收预估已达200亿美元

214
00:10:54,379 --> 00:10:57,599
同比增长三位数百分比

215
00:10:57,599 --> 00:10:59,659
这在一定程度上掩盖了规模

216
00:10:59,659 --> 00:11:02,159
如果芯片业务是独立公司

217
00:11:02,159 --> 00:11:06,190
向AWS及其他第三方销售今年生产的芯片

218
00:11:06,190 --> 00:11:08,029
如同其他领先芯片厂商

219
00:11:08,029 --> 00:11:13,000
我们的年度营收预估可达500亿美元

220
00:11:13,000 --> 00:11:18,370
定制硅业务已成为全球三大数据中心芯片企业之一

221
00:11:18,370 --> 00:11:21,090
我们取得这一成就的速度令人惊叹

222
00:11:21,090 --> 00:11:25,899
Cranium已获得超2250亿美元营收承诺

223
00:11:25,899 --> 00:11:30,620
Anium 2芯片价格性能比同类GPU提升30%

224
00:11:30,620 --> 00:11:32,149
且基本售罄

225
00:11:32,149 --> 00:11:32,970
Cranium 3

226
00:11:32,970 --> 00:11:35,409
于2026年初开始交付

227
00:11:35,409 --> 00:11:40,519
Anium 2性能提升30-40%,已近满销

228
00:11:40,519 --> 00:11:41,840
Tranium 4大部分

229
00:11:41,840 --> 00:11:44,740
预计18个月后全面上市

230
00:11:44,740 --> 00:11:46,730
已全部预订完毕

231
00:11:46,730 --> 00:11:49,470
AI常被视为GPU驱动的故事

232
00:11:49,470 --> 00:11:51,679
但生成式工作流的崛起

233
00:11:51,679 --> 00:11:53,039
实时推理

234
00:11:53,039 --> 00:11:55,159
代码生成与强化学习

235
00:11:55,159 --> 00:12:00,318
多步骤任务编排正推动CPU需求激增

236
00:12:00,318 --> 00:12:02,019
这也是为何Meta采用Graviton

237
00:12:02,019 --> 00:12:07,659
其价格性能比其他x86处理器提升40%

238
00:12:07,659 --> 00:12:13,179
现已被Top 1000 EC2客户中的98%采用

239
00:12:13,179 --> 00:12:19,179
AWS在AI与CPU负载芯片领域无人能及

240
00:12:19,179 --> 00:12:21,700
这正是关键原因所在

241
00:12:21,700 --> 00:12:25,419
我大幅增持亚马逊股票

242
00:12:25,419 --> 00:12:30,610
因为他们拥有全球最大芯片业务

243
00:12:30,610 --> 00:12:35,349
芯片业务年同比增长超100%

244
00:12:35,349 --> 00:12:36,749
从数据来看

245
00:12:36,749 --> 00:12:41,409
即使按200亿美元营收预估

246
00:12:41,409 --> 00:12:45,009
仍超过AMD数据中心业务

247
00:12:45,009 --> 00:12:48,129
因AMD去年营收约170亿美元

248
00:12:48,129 --> 00:12:50,940
他们将于今日收盘后公布财报

249
00:12:50,940 --> 00:12:53,299
此数据可能再次上调

250
00:12:53,299 --> 00:12:58,240
但这只是为了说明亚马逊芯片业务的规模有多大

251
00:12:58,240 --> 00:13:00,500
如果他们向第三方销售

252
00:13:00,500 --> 00:13:03,679
年收入将达五十亿美元规模

253
00:13:03,679 --> 00:13:06,578
这将是AMD业务规模的两倍以上

254
00:13:06,578 --> 00:13:10,558
你可以清楚看到股市中的芯片股如英特尔和AMD

255
00:13:10,558 --> 00:13:12,458
股价正在飙升

256
00:13:12,458 --> 00:13:14,379
但有趣的是

257
00:13:14,379 --> 00:13:19,169
亚马逊的芯片业务可能比这两家公司更出色

258
00:13:19,169 --> 00:13:24,240
但亚马逊股价似乎并未完全反映市场需求

259
00:13:24,240 --> 00:13:25,299
尽管它正在经历需求增长

260
00:13:25,299 --> 00:13:28,149
尽管其业务可能更优

261
00:13:28,149 --> 00:13:32,470
我认为亚马逊蕴含巨大价值

262
00:13:32,470 --> 00:13:36,899
因为他们拥有规模庞大且增长迅猛的芯片业务

263
00:13:36,899 --> 00:13:37,899
他们表示

264
00:13:37,899 --> 00:13:42,818
他们拥有超过两百亿的Cranium芯片订单 backlog

265
00:13:42,818 --> 00:13:45,139
其芯片需求巨大

266
00:13:45,139 --> 00:13:47,239
他们的芯片堪称世界一流

267
00:13:47,239 --> 00:13:50,360
芯片业务年增长率超百%

268
00:13:50,360 --> 00:13:52,089
规模非常庞大

269
00:13:52,089 --> 00:13:54,369
因此我认为亚马逊

270
00:13:54,369 --> 00:13:58,568
是接触芯片行业的重要途径之一

271
00:13:58,568 --> 00:14:02,960
以非常合理的价格获取芯片行业需求

272
00:14:02,960 --> 00:14:04,460
稍后我们将看到

273
00:14:04,460 --> 00:14:06,159
当我开始做DCF分析时

274
00:14:06,159 --> 00:14:07,580
让我们继续下一张截图

275
00:14:07,580 --> 00:14:08,889
安迪·贾西提到

276
00:14:08,889 --> 00:14:12,590
2026年AWS资本支出计划

277
00:14:12,590 --> 00:14:14,990
大部分将在未来几年部署

278
00:14:14,990 --> 00:14:16,409
我们对此充满信心

279
00:14:16,409 --> 00:14:22,100
这些投入将有效转化为收入,因为我们已有大量客户承诺

280
00:14:22,100 --> 00:14:26,139
并将带来有吸引力的运营利润率和资本回报率

281
00:14:26,139 --> 00:14:27,259
正如我们之前分享的

282
00:14:27,259 --> 00:14:29,100
AWS增长越快

283
00:14:29,100 --> 00:14:33,879
需要提前投入现金用于土地

284
00:14:33,879 --> 00:14:34,980
电力设施

285
00:14:34,980 --> 00:14:35,559
芯片

286
00:14:35,559 --> 00:14:37,240
服务器和网络设备

287
00:14:37,240 --> 00:14:40,109
远早于收入实现时点

288
00:14:40,109 --> 00:14:41,308
通常提前6到2

289
00:14:41,308 --> 00:14:43,649
四个月前开始向客户计费

290
00:14:43,649 --> 00:14:44,369
然而

291
00:14:44,369 --> 00:14:45,969
在高速增长期

292
00:14:45,969 --> 00:14:47,000
如当前阶段

293
00:14:47,000 --> 00:14:50,320
资本支出增速显著快于营收增速

294
00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:51,080
早期阶段

295
00:14:51,080 --> 00:14:52,779
自由现金流承压

296
00:14:52,779 --> 00:14:58,519
直到产能逐步释放且营收增速超过资本支出

297
00:14:58,519 --> 00:15:00,000
安迪·贾西在这里强调

298
00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:00,360
这里

299
00:15:00,360 --> 00:15:00,799
这是

300
00:15:00,799 --> 00:15:06,980
AWS的商业模式要求亚马逊需预先投入大量资本

301
00:15:06,980 --> 00:15:10,539
在能够实现盈利前必须先建设数据中心

302
00:15:10,539 --> 00:15:11,980
这很明显对吧

303
00:15:11,980 --> 00:15:14,450
他们之前经历过这样的周期

304
00:15:14,450 --> 00:15:16,710
有趣的是亚马逊的情况其实

305
00:15:16,710 --> 00:15:19,250
当他们在大幅增加资本支出时

306
00:15:19,250 --> 00:15:24,620
未来的自由现金流应会激增并显著增长

307
00:15:24,620 --> 00:15:27,419
我们之前见过这种周期

308
00:15:27,419 --> 00:15:30,219
这正是让我充满信心的原因

309
00:15:30,219 --> 00:15:32,980
当亚马逊经历这一大规模资本支出周期时

310
00:15:32,980 --> 00:15:38,600
未来几年将产生显著的长期自由现金流

311
00:15:38,600 --> 00:15:40,899
我将在股票解锁部分展示我的观点

312
00:15:40,899 --> 00:15:43,320
现在让我们看看亚马逊的自由现金流历史

313
00:15:43,320 --> 00:15:45,820
我们可以看到从2003年到2009年

314
00:15:45,820 --> 00:15:48,299
他们的自由现金流增长非常强劲

315
00:15:48,299 --> 00:15:50,740
当我们继续拉长时间线到2013年

316
00:15:50,740 --> 00:15:55,169
亚马逊的自由现金流显著下滑

317
00:15:55,169 --> 00:15:59,220
这正是他们经历大规模资本支出周期的时期

318
00:15:59,220 --> 00:16:04,509
扩建物流仓库并投资AWS基础设施

319
00:16:04,509 --> 00:16:08,230
这是亚马逊首次经历的真实资本支出周期

320
00:16:08,230 --> 00:16:10,269
现在让我们看看结果如何

321
00:16:10,269 --> 00:16:12,490
在完成资本支出周期后

322
00:16:12,490 --> 00:16:16,068
亚马逊的自由现金流再次爆发式增长

323
00:16:16,068 --> 00:16:17,989
我们看到它创下历史新高

324
00:16:17,989 --> 00:16:23,230
并持续增长直到约2016年

325
00:16:23,230 --> 00:16:27,599
随后又经历了一轮资本支出周期至2018年

326
00:16:27,599 --> 00:16:30,619
这是亚马逊的下一次资本支出周期

327
00:16:30,619 --> 00:16:33,759
自由现金流再次开始下滑

328
00:16:33,759 --> 00:16:34,960
让我们看看发生了什么

329
00:16:34,960 --> 00:16:37,230
在经历小幅资本支出周期后

330
00:16:37,230 --> 00:16:41,529
亚马逊的自由现金流继续增长并爆发

331
00:16:41,529 --> 00:16:45,490
在2020年达到270亿美元峰值

332
00:16:45,490 --> 00:16:46,990
在2020年期间

333
00:16:46,990 --> 00:16:50,730
亚马逊需要大幅增加资本支出

334
00:16:50,730 --> 00:16:53,549
以扩建仓库和物流能力

335
00:16:53,549 --> 00:16:58,029
自由现金流在2021和2022年一度转负

336
00:16:58,029 --> 00:16:58,389
嗯

337
00:16:58,389 --> 00:16:59,950
让我们看看后续发展

338
00:16:59,950 --> 00:17:03,750
我们可以看到亚马逊的自由现金流随后飙升

339
00:17:03,750 --> 00:17:08,170
在2023-2024年达到480亿美元新高

340
00:17:08,170 --> 00:17:08,750
现在

341
00:17:08,750 --> 00:17:11,539
亚马逊正在经历新一轮资本支出周期

342
00:17:11,539 --> 00:17:12,660
其 trailing twelve months

343
00:17:12,660 --> 00:17:14,779
自由现金流目前为负

344
00:17:14,779 --> 00:17:17,348
但根据亚马逊的历史表现

345
00:17:17,348 --> 00:17:20,249
每次经历资本支出周期后

346
00:17:20,249 --> 00:17:26,109
自由现金流都会爆发并创历史新高

347
00:17:26,109 --> 00:17:30,190
我个人喜欢观察亚马逊的经营现金流

348
00:17:30,190 --> 00:17:33,990
这是业务运营实际产生的现金流

349
00:17:33,990 --> 00:17:37,970
我们可以清楚看到它达到约140亿美元的历史峰值

350
00:17:37,970 --> 00:17:38,730
九百亿

351
00:17:38,730 --> 00:17:42,460
并且在过去几个季度中增速还在加快

352
00:17:42,460 --> 00:17:43,240
再次说明

353
00:17:43,240 --> 00:17:46,900
这在我看来表明亚马逊的资本支出正在见效

354
00:17:46,900 --> 00:17:49,940
公司的实际现金流仍在持续增长

355
00:17:49,940 --> 00:17:52,799
我还有一张截图显示分析师预期

356
00:17:52,799 --> 00:17:54,579
亚马逊的经营现金流

357
00:17:54,579 --> 00:17:57,940
到2028年将增长至两百八十亿美元

358
00:17:57,940 --> 00:18:01,980
这意味着未来三年预计翻一番

359
00:18:01,980 --> 00:18:07,720
亚马逊的经营现金流现在呈现26%的复合年增长率

360
00:18:07,720 --> 00:18:11,940
如果我们查看亚马逊长期历史市销率

361
00:18:11,940 --> 00:18:14,799
平均值为26.6倍

362
00:18:14,799 --> 00:18:17,039
最新数据为21倍

363
00:18:17,039 --> 00:18:21,950
仍远低于亚马逊股票历史交易水平

364
00:18:21,950 --> 00:18:23,289
令人惊讶的是

365
00:18:23,289 --> 00:18:27,529
亚马逊仍低于其长期平均市盈率

366
00:18:27,529 --> 00:18:29,679
尽管股价已创历史新高

367
00:18:29,679 --> 00:18:32,338
现在我们运行几个DCF模型分析亚马逊

368
00:18:32,338 --> 00:18:33,699
我想向你展示

369
00:18:33,699 --> 00:18:37,970
为什么我认为股价仍可能被低估

370
00:18:37,970 --> 00:18:39,150
未来三年

371
00:18:39,150 --> 00:18:43,349
亚马逊经营现金流年增长16%

372
00:18:43,349 --> 00:18:46,369
低于分析师预期

373
00:18:46,369 --> 00:18:50,650
公司当前经营现金流增速达30%

374
00:18:50,650 --> 00:18:53,289
我还假设亚马逊市销率约20倍

375
00:18:53,289 --> 00:18:54,440
经营现金流

376
00:18:54,440 --> 00:19:01,179
意味着股价无进一步估值提升且低于历史均值

377
00:19:01,179 --> 00:19:04,479
而在该DCF模型中仍获得14.6%的年复合增长率

378
00:19:04,479 --> 00:19:07,579
亚马逊股价年复合增长率为14.6%

379
00:19:07,579 --> 00:19:10,759
合理估值为309美元/股

380
00:19:10,759 --> 00:19:14,079
这表明亚马逊股票当前被低估

381
00:19:14,079 --> 00:19:19,789
即使仅以16%的经营现金流增速计算

382
00:19:19,789 --> 00:19:24,529
如果亚马逊未来三年经营现金流年增20%

383
00:19:24,529 --> 00:19:27,579
仍低于分析师预期

384
00:19:27,579 --> 00:19:31,700
同时估值逐步回归历史均值

385
00:19:31,700 --> 00:19:34,250
或接近历史均值22倍

386
00:19:34,250 --> 00:19:37,329
由于业务持续加速增长

387
00:19:37,329 --> 00:19:41,949
股价未来三年或年增22%

388
00:19:41,949 --> 00:19:45,909
合理估值达376美元/股

389
00:19:45,909 --> 00:19:49,829
我认为这个DCF模型并不不现实

390
00:19:49,829 --> 00:19:53,559
因为亚马逊业务需求旺盛

391
00:19:53,559 --> 00:19:55,480
需求远超产能

392
00:19:55,480 --> 00:19:59,309
公司正投入创纪录资本用于未来发展

393
00:19:59,309 --> 00:20:02,309
业务运转顺畅高效

394
00:20:02,309 --> 00:20:07,130
当前经营现金流年增超20%

395
00:20:07,130 --> 00:20:08,930
且预计将持续加速

396
00:20:08,930 --> 00:20:11,630
看到营收端进一步加速增长

397
00:20:11,630 --> 00:20:12,430
总体而言

398
00:20:12,430 --> 00:20:14,829
我认为亚马逊财报表现非常出色

399
00:20:14,829 --> 00:20:18,279
我关注的所有指标都在增长并加速

400
00:20:18,279 --> 00:20:19,359
令人惊讶的是

401
00:20:19,359 --> 00:20:22,900
这家公司在股市上仍然不显昂贵

402
00:20:22,900 --> 00:20:25,269
尽管它在接近历史高点时出售

403
00:20:25,269 --> 00:20:30,180
其市销现金流比率仍低于长期历史平均水平

404
00:20:30,180 --> 00:20:32,599
与此同时,公司正在加速增长

405
00:20:32,599 --> 00:20:35,980
分析师也预计亚马逊的增长率将保持在两位数

406
00:20:35,980 --> 00:20:38,579
未来三年每年增长6%

407
00:20:38,579 --> 00:20:43,259
即使亚马逊未能达到这些指引和预期

408
00:20:43,259 --> 00:20:45,440
股票仍然看起来很便宜

409
00:20:45,440 --> 00:20:50,109
未来三年可能带来超过10%的年化回报

410
00:20:50,109 --> 00:20:52,829
最后从财报电话会议记录中可以看出

411
00:20:52,829 --> 00:20:54,170
亚马逊的芯片业务

412
00:20:54,170 --> 00:20:55,670
业务正在爆炸式增长

413
00:20:55,670 --> 00:20:58,109
年收入超过200亿美元

414
00:20:58,109 --> 00:21:00,329
同比激增超过一倍

415
00:21:00,329 --> 00:21:03,369
我认为这是全球最优秀的芯片业务之一

416
00:21:03,369 --> 00:21:07,000
但市场并未充分定价亚马逊的这一业务

417
00:21:07,000 --> 00:21:07,720
所以再次

418
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:10,559
我认为亚马逊是获取增长的最佳途径

419
00:21:10,559 --> 00:21:14,299
接触芯片行业增长及行业需求

420
00:21:14,299 --> 00:21:17,170
同时仍能以合理价格购入

421
00:21:17,170 --> 00:21:22,490
这也是我大幅增持亚马逊的主要原因

422
00:21:22,490 --> 00:21:27,750
因为我认为市场并未充分反映企业内在价值

423
00:21:27,750 --> 00:21:30,190
基于企业实际运营情况

424
00:21:30,190 --> 00:21:34,069
我认为亚马逊业务全面开花

425
00:21:34,069 --> 00:21:37,829
我认为股票当前仍具投资价值

426
00:21:37,829 --> 00:21:39,049
但话说回来

427
00:21:39,049 --> 00:21:41,549
这将结束我的亚马逊财报视频

428
00:21:41,549 --> 00:21:45,890
以上就是我决定增持亚马逊的原因

429
00:21:45,890 --> 00:21:47,099
财报发布后

430
00:21:47,099 --> 00:21:48,380
如果你喜欢这个视频

431
00:21:48,380 --> 00:21:49,920
请记得点赞支持

432
00:21:49,920 --> 00:21:51,799
如果你想观看更多此类视频

433
00:21:51,799 --> 00:21:55,259
请考虑订阅我的频道并持续关注

434
00:21:55,259 --> 00:21:56,779
非常感谢您的观看

435
00:21:56,779 --> 00:21:58,359
我由衷感谢

436
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:00,900
希望下次视频再见
评论

共 1 条,按点赞数排序。

用户 内容 点赞 回复 时间
GodblessKanyew 我前段时间买入了。。。 0 4 2026-05-06 23:18
弹幕

采集完成,该视频无弹幕