【NaNa说美股】20260325这下真的卡脖子了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股今天是3月25号

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周三昨天收盘后突然跳出消

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美国已经通过巴基斯坦

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给伊朗递了一份15点停火计划

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川普还一脸神秘的显摆

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说

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伊朗准备签协议

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还送了他一份跟油漆有关的大礼

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具体是什么他也没说哈

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这消息一出来

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妻子昨天盘后呢就直接兴奋的原地起跳

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今天盘前还一直涨

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但是伊朗方面称拒绝了美国的协议

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还说美国这是拿谈判当轰炸的掩护

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紧接着

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伊朗就列出了达成停火

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必须满足的五项先决条件

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包括战争赔款呃

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还有承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的主权等等

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这最后一条要求美国肯定不能同意啊

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霍尔木兹海峡地理上甲在伊朗和阿曼之间

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法律上就不属于任何一个国家

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它是一个国际水道

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全球都可以通行

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承认伊朗的管辖权

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那川普还不如直接把白宫的钥匙也给寄过去

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得了

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伊朗这边啊

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还威胁说

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如果美国敢对伊朗岛屿或者本土发起地面行动

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就要在曼德海峡开辟第二战线

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曼德海峡呢连接红海和亚丁湾

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是世界第四大航运咽喉要道

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全球大约12%的海运石油

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经有曼德海峡运输

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如果霍尔木兹海峡和曼德呃

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这个海峡都关闭的话

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那总停产产能可能就要接近

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每天2500万桶石油了

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约占全球供应量的25%

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宜兰支持的也门胡塞武装呢也跟着起哄说

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随时考虑封锁红海门户

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受此惊吓

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股指期货盘前的涨幅收窄

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但是由于空头回补的惯性

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虽然股指今天还是集体高开

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盘中又传来一则坏消息

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就是伊朗布什尔核电站再次遭到袭击

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局势升级

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股指呢短线跳水啊

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但因为白宫出来安抚又拉起来了

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但最终哈仍然集体收长

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所以这个美股大盘韧性还是很强的

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白宫新闻秘书嗯

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莱维特

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他今天和大家说

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美国与伊朗的谈判进展良好

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如果伊朗不投降

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川普绝不虚张声势

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重申对伊朗的军事行动

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时间框架为4~6周

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双方都在给自己增加筹码

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玩极限施压的心理战

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说实话

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这次美国对伊朗开战的决定

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并不能说白宫做错了

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毕竟原子弹要是真造出来

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这不仅仅是对以色列哈

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对全世界的威胁都太大了

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但是美国在开战之前呢

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还是低估了伊朗的这个反抗能力

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委内瑞拉的成功案例让白宫自信心膨胀了

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以为只要把内衣那批人给解决了

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就能够大功告即

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结果呢现在搞得自己有点骑虎难下

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又想解封海峡

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又不想打成持久战

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既要又要还要到最后只会搞得一团糟

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所谓开弓没有回头箭哈

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都已经打到这个程度了

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还不如咬咬牙干到底呢

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标普500指数纪念日K

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又售出了一根纠结的十字星

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虽然收盘勉强站上了5日均线

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但依然处于10日均线下方

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自2月28号中东开盘以来

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指数这一轮下跌

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每次超跌反弹始终被这条10日均线所压制

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6700

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这里的压力呢也很沉重嗯

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只要过不了月均线哈

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全都是以超跌反弹来看待

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如果到了这个周五没有出奇迹

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那周末前的避险抛售炒将会送指数

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再去测试6475的支撑

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现在美股市场还对后续战争能够快速结束

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抱有希望的哈

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并没有完全定价嗯

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双海峡封锁这种最差的剧本

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这两天的反弹背后呢

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纯粹就是一场接着假消息进行的超卖修复

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占卜说伊朗要投降

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一旦说没有哈

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大多数市场参与者根本就无从判断

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到底谁对谁错

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对于华尔街来说呢

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真相其实也不重要

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正好给了量化机器人制造波动的借口啊

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很多朋友可能会觉得哎呀

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大家为什么还是这么傻呢

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川普都说了那么多真真假假的话

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居然还会相信川普的话

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其实大家交易的并不是真相本身哈

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而是态度

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就是嗯大家觉得川普那么在意股市

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他最后肯定不敢真的把局势搞砸

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所以呢当川普他哭的时候

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所有人一边骂川普这个大骗子

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一边呢又害怕错过这个市场回调的底部

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所以在踏空焦虑的驱使之下

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哪怕是一丁点的利好消息

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哪怕川普说的停货

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大家并不是那么相信

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但市场都会做出非常强烈的反应

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甚至可能是过度反应

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等指数拉起来了

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赚到钱了

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短线交易员呢就抛售离场

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这笔交易就此结

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至于后面会不会打起来

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会不会恶化

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那就是下一笔交易的事情了

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中长线投资者这个时候啊

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宁愿这个忽略短期波动

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选择等确定性出来才会重新布局

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比如像那些只做多的大基金

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他们呃

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就不会选择在大盘还处于年线下方的时候进场

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这个时候他们都在场外观望

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高盛认为

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在冲突得到解决之前

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技术面形势让市场呢难以持续上涨

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CCTA目前还在继续抛售

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实际波动率正在上升

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这张图展示的是标普500的一个月

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隐含相关性指数

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在正常的情况之下哈

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各板块是有涨有跌的风险呢可以分散

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但是现在这个指标正以陡峭的斜率暴力拉升

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逼近0.4的极端高位区域

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金融学里有一个著名的说法哈

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就是当危机来临的时候

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所有资产的相关性都会趋向于一

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这意味着现在的市场已经失去了防守深度

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交易员们预计未来一个月内嗯

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标普500成份股将会齐涨齐跌

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失去分散风险的可能性

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取而代之的呢是做市商和量化交易

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为了对冲风险而进行的集体踩踏

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这种像一靠拢的趋势

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往往对应着流动性彻底枯竭之前的最后清算

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只要这一根黑线不掉头

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那任何个股的利好

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都无法抵御大盘整体的下坠力道

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大盘想要真正的企稳

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必须先要等到这种抱团跳水动能的消耗殆尽

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所以我现在也是呃

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既不敢太乐观

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也不敢太悲观

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只有海峡一天不恢复正常通行

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那反弹都是减仓增加现金的机会

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手握着现金哈

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等那个相关行动能消耗殆尽

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个股方面

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软银旗下的芯片设计公司arm

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股价暴涨超16%

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一举造成的年限公司正式发布首款自研CPU

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并且预计这一项业务将会在5年内

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创造大约150亿美元的年度营收

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梅塔将会成为首个主要客户

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我发现梅塔现在好像是百米冲刺

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布局这个AI赛道哈

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什么都买

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什么都做

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预计5年内呢

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嗯arm会实现大约250亿美元的总销售额

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是目前的五倍

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AMD股价跳空大涨

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初级半年线与上方缺口阻力区

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据日经亚洲报道

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AMD英特尔都已经各自通知客户了

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将会在34月起对全系列CPU上调价格

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今年以来CPU报价已经多次上调

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平均涨幅达到10%到15%

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交货周期呢从过去的一到两周

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骤升至平均8~12周

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个别情况下甚至长达六个月呃

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所以也在和那个存储芯片一样在炒稀缺性了

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太空概念股集体狂欢

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剧传马斯克旗下the spacex

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计划最早本周或者下周就提交IPO申请

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目标是在6月份挂牌上市公司

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目前的最新估值为1.25万亿美元

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这要低于此前报道的1.75万亿美元

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实际募资规模与估值的

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将会在IPO前数周最终确定

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也就取决于当时那个市场的情况

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一旦落地

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SPACEX这一次的IPO募资规模将会大

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打破

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沙特阿美

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2019年创下的294亿美元记录

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成为史上最大规模的IPO

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这个消息也提振了整个太空板块的乐观情绪

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00:09:11,980 --> 00:09:16,960
对于SIIDUDXYZLUNR等等小票来说

217
00:09:16,960 --> 00:09:19,210
马斯克这一枚超级火箭

218
00:09:19,210 --> 00:09:21,730
那是绝佳的炒作借口

219
00:09:21,730 --> 00:09:22,529
盘子有情

220
00:09:22,529 --> 00:09:23,839
一点火就燥

221
00:09:23,839 --> 00:09:26,899
SIIDU3月31号盘后会出财报

222
00:09:26,899 --> 00:09:31,039
财报之前呢估计还能嗯继续无脑拉几天

223
00:09:31,039 --> 00:09:35,080
为了给SPACEX这个史上最大的IPO预热

224
00:09:35,080 --> 00:09:39,370
投行合作时尚必须维持太空板块的热度哈

225
00:09:39,370 --> 00:09:42,190
所以从现在到6月份

226
00:09:42,190 --> 00:09:46,350
这个上市之前回调都是重新上车的机会

227
00:09:46,350 --> 00:09:50,299
七聚投ETFMAGS呢依然很弱

228
00:09:50,299 --> 00:09:53,220
大资金已经从几个龙头里撤出来了

229
00:09:53,220 --> 00:09:54,779
不再做指数增强

230
00:09:54,779 --> 00:09:58,759
剩余的活跃资金呢在少数标题上制造剧烈波动

231
00:09:58,759 --> 00:10:01,600
比如那个SPACEX概念股是吧

232
00:10:01,600 --> 00:10:05,840
但是嗯标普500本质上还是一个权重游戏

233
00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:12,318
意味着市场最核心的这个资产依然部分

234
00:10:12,318 --> 00:10:15,078
那么即便有一些板块在涨

235
00:10:15,078 --> 00:10:17,379
那也是虚假繁荣而已

236
00:10:17,379 --> 00:10:21,379
美股市场任何一次真正的中期大底

237
00:10:21,379 --> 00:10:25,200
标志性的信号都不是靠那些小票妖股乱舞

238
00:10:25,200 --> 00:10:27,639
而是巨头们带量止跌

239
00:10:27,639 --> 00:10:29,849
形成坚实的复合底

240
00:10:29,849 --> 00:10:33,048
只要MGS还在年线下方增长

241
00:10:33,048 --> 00:10:36,089
那大盘的底部就还没有焊死

242
00:10:36,089 --> 00:10:40,490
分投基金VCX自上周四IPO上市以来

243
00:10:40,490 --> 00:10:43,590
价格就有如坐了火箭般持续飙升

244
00:10:43,590 --> 00:10:46,120
短短五个交易日翻了十几倍

245
00:10:46,120 --> 00:10:47,980
赌场哪有他自己啊

246
00:10:47,980 --> 00:10:50,720
这只基金引发二级市场报酬的原因

247
00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:55,489
就是他把原本只有顶流风投们才能够投资的

248
00:10:55,489 --> 00:10:57,229
Entropk da bricks

249
00:10:57,229 --> 00:10:58,009
Open ai

250
00:10:58,009 --> 00:11:00,899
还有SPACEX等未上市公司股票呢

251
00:11:00,899 --> 00:11:04,080
通过一家上市基金来卖给二级市场

252
00:11:04,080 --> 00:11:04,919
散户们

253
00:11:04,919 --> 00:11:07,460
即使价格今年从高点回落

254
00:11:07,460 --> 00:11:09,500
它溢价还是非常的严重

255
00:11:09,500 --> 00:11:12,080
就是一个击鼓传花的游戏了

256
00:11:12,080 --> 00:11:13,690
谁最后一个谁倒霉

257
00:11:13,690 --> 00:11:14,750
C i f2

258
00:11:14,750 --> 00:11:18,909
签订了为期15年的超大型数据中心园区租约

259
00:11:18,909 --> 00:11:22,419
并且完成2亿美元的循环信贷融资

260
00:11:22,419 --> 00:11:24,320
股价大涨6.7%

261
00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,000
嗯不知道的

262
00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:29,419
还以为他签了一份15年的这个大订单呢

263
00:11:29,419 --> 00:11:30,789
原来只是租约而已

264
00:11:30,789 --> 00:11:34,409
股价一直在半年线与年限区间内整理

265
00:11:34,409 --> 00:11:36,730
存储概念今天逆势走低哈

266
00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:40,879
当红辣子鸡SNDK与美光科技的股价都下跌

267
00:11:40,879 --> 00:11:42,000
消息面上呢

268
00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:45,559
谷歌推出了新型内存压缩技术

269
00:11:45,559 --> 00:11:50,019
可将大语言模型键值缓存压缩至三比特

270
00:11:50,019 --> 00:11:53,639
实现六五倍内存缩减与最高八倍加速

271
00:11:53,639 --> 00:11:58,679
旨在解决AI推理与向量搜索中的内存瓶颈问题

272
00:11:58,679 --> 00:12:02,059
引发了市场对存储需求前景的担忧

273
00:12:02,059 --> 00:12:03,320
唉就说的那么复杂

274
00:12:03,320 --> 00:12:05,399
说白了就是提高内存的利用率

275
00:12:05,399 --> 00:12:06,519
省内存啦

276
00:12:06,519 --> 00:12:08,559
但是这个并不是什么新闻哈

277
00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:09,960
去年就已经出来了

278
00:12:09,960 --> 00:12:11,659
大家早就已经知道了

279
00:12:11,659 --> 00:12:13,059
现在又拿出来说

280
00:12:13,059 --> 00:12:14,620
无非就是为了杀估值嘛

281
00:12:14,620 --> 00:12:16,539
还有就是市场今年反弹

282
00:12:16,539 --> 00:12:20,539
有部分抱团资金从这个高位存储里面流出来

283
00:12:20,539 --> 00:12:22,339
去拉其他股票而已

284
00:12:22,339 --> 00:12:24,298
拼多多股价季后上涨

285
00:12:24,298 --> 00:12:26,859
公司Q4营收同比增长12%

286
00:12:26,859 --> 00:12:27,778
略超预期

287
00:12:27,778 --> 00:12:30,809
但是净利润263亿元人民币

288
00:12:30,809 --> 00:12:32,629
同比下降了12%

289
00:12:32,629 --> 00:12:33,750
不及预期

290
00:12:33,750 --> 00:12:36,679
有的时候不太懂中概股的脑回路哈

291
00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:37,720
超预期的时候

292
00:12:37,720 --> 00:12:38,600
股价下跌

293
00:12:38,600 --> 00:12:39,480
不及预期的时候

294
00:12:39,480 --> 00:12:40,299
股价上涨

295
00:12:40,299 --> 00:12:43,940
反正就是不能够让散户轻松的赚钱就是了

296
00:12:43,940 --> 00:12:46,259
行今天我们就简单说到这里

297
00:12:46,259 --> 00:12:47,740
那我们明天见拜拜

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