美股：大空头空翻多了。特斯拉财报剧震。AMD进入直线上涨。【2026-04-22】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是SUNY

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今天是2026年4月22号星期三

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大盘轻微整理了两天后

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今天继续上涨

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表现出强劲的上涨趋势

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标普指数上涨73.89点

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涨幅1.05%

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但是今天没有再创新高

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指数是不是会做一个小平台整理几天呢

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啊有这个可能持续大涨

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V型反转创出新高之后

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指数停下来整理整理有一定的必要性

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小平台整理之后

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过1~5天再次创出新高

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那么上涨行情将向纵深方向推进

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纳斯达克指数上涨397.6点

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涨幅1.6%

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四小阳线再创历史新高

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指数比标普还要强

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当纳指表现最强时

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大盘的牛市上涨基础最好

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当道指是三大指数最强时

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美股大概是一个避险的环境

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这是这几年我总结出来的一个重要规律

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如今纳指再次成为三大指数最强

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股市上涨的基础就是最好的科技股

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上涨才是美股的根基

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市场期待中的二次谈判进展不太顺利

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万斯去了伊斯兰堡

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等了几天

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伊朗也没有人要来

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谈判无法开展

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但是随着停火协议到期

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重新轰炸已经不是美国的最优策略

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今天川普宣布无期限维持停火协议

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继续开打的风险大幅下降

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因为美国找到了比轰炸更有效的办法

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就是封锁霍尔木兹海峡

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成本低

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给伊朗的痛苦指数高

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受此消息影响

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金融市场的风险偏好提高

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股市和加密货币上涨

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不过我认为

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无期限延长停火并不能解决根本问题

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战争对市场的影响不在于打不打

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而在于能源价格有没有上涨

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市场情绪的反射弧是油价上涨引起通胀

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导致不降息

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甚至是加息

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制造业成本上升

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成长股吸引力下降

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股市下跌

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只要海上交易封锁仍然遇阻

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石油就还是会高位波动

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停火延期以后

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WTI原油依然上涨

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原因是能源供应问题没有缓解

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川普说

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无期限停火的前提是

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伊朗必须提交一份美国接受的提案

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这个事情仍存在不确定性

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还有另一个解读就是无期限停火

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是不是就要无期限封锁

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封到伊朗受不了为止

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那油价维持高位的时间就会比较长了

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那市场情绪乐观到底在乐观什么呢

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2月份私人信贷基金暴雷事件的主角

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蓝色猫头鹰最近努力筹集资金解决问题

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摩根士丹利帮助他协调市场需求

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终于成功发行的债券

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私人信贷基金暴雷

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虽然不至于引起金融风暴

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但也是被鲍威尔提及的金融风险之一

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这个事情的起源是AI冲击软件行业

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说软件要死了

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导致投资者巨额赎回

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投资于软件行业的私人贷款基金

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但是贷款不是说收回来就能马上收回来的

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蓝色猫头鹰最后没有办法宣布停止赎回

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摩根士丹利牵头帮助蓝色猫头鹰

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发行了4亿美元的债券

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利率高一点

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有6.45%啊

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利率挺高的

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所以实现了超额认购

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蓝色猫头鹰能融到资了

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钱能周转起来

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风险就降低了

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所以这个消息说明金融风险降低

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像2008年那样的金融危机暂时不会出现了

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股市上涨的速度快

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连大空头也心虚了

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电影大空头原型MICHAELBURRY总是唱空做空

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最近的消息称

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bury短期看多了

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他说当前美股火爆的上涨势头

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一时也不会立刻演变成毁灭性的崩盘

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尖顶的可能性几乎是没有的

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也就是说

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美股大盘在直线上涨后

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突然转变成直线暴跌的尖顶

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在历史上极为罕见

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发生的概率微乎其微了

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但是接下来市场更可能呈现震荡走势

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未来会出现更多的历史新高和大幅回调

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逐渐形成头部

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berry说

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现在的上涨或许是牛市顶部的一部分

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美股的空头真的是挺郁闷的啊

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总是压不中压了

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空单总是被噶空

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他在四季度做空了英伟达和PLTR

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做的压力非常大

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不小心这两只股又要创新高了

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所以连这么有影响力的大空投

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都没能通过长期做空持续盈利

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说明空头不好

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当

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在美股市场上有各种各样的做空工具

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比如买入看跌期权

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融券

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做空三倍做空ETF等等

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有的人看到一只股票涨了10年了

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总是想去做空

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觉得这股票涨多了肯定要大跌

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那其实上市公司在10年20年里

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增长速度非常快的情况下

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同样一家公司股票代码在不同的时间

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代表着不一样的内在价值

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公司的规模体量和盈利水平是10年前的十倍

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股价也涨了十倍

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理论上估值水平还是一样的

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等于没有涨

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那些股价涨了很多倍的公司

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股权的价值也在增长

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所以还真不一定会从哪里涨上来

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就跌回哪里去了

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我的IBKR公开账户

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今天盈利5659

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涨幅2.9%

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一

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收盘后五点左右截图净值19.9万

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这个涨幅包括了特斯拉盘后的财报

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上涨的部分啊

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特斯拉在今天盘后发布了一季报

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盘后几分钟快速拉升

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那是公布了什么好消息呢

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一季度财报中我发现负号只有一个

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其他全部是正数唉

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这明显改观了其中

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净利润和每股收益超过分析师的预期

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每股收益41美分

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超过之前分析师的预期

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同比增长52%

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公司营业收入环比下降

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但同比还是增长了16%

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一季度营收223.87亿

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其中汽车销售收入162.34亿

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环比下降

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储能业务不增反减

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同比环比都下降了只有24亿

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这本来是预计要增长的业务

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结果却是下降的

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自由现金流14.44亿

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同比增长117%

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这个报表不算烂啦

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比之前几个季度有好转

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这是基本面触底回升的信号

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特斯拉的产能合计超过225万辆

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第一大工厂仍然是上海

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有95万辆以上的产能

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其次是加州

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有55万辆储能业务

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产能也开始公布

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最大的mega pack工厂在加州上海工厂第二

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本次财报首次公布AI算力情况

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已投产上线的德州cortex1项目

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和开始运行训练负载的cortex2

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将确保特斯拉有足够的算力资源

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用于开发AI产品和服务

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同时特斯拉继续推进doge3自研芯片的开发

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算力的增长图和未来产能也呈快速上升趋势

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FSD在财报中归类到AI软件部分

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印象中也是第一次

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随着机器人出租车和擎天柱机器人产能爬坡

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特斯拉正在将制造范围扩大到半导体制造

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确保芯片供应充足

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特斯拉与SPACEX合作

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建立有史以来最大的芯片工厂

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4月份完成了下一代AI5推理芯片的流片

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机器人

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出租车的公里数增长情况也不错

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累计公里数已经超过165万英里

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在第一季度

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付费robot taxi的行程里程环比几乎翻倍了

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这次的财报总体感觉不错

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财报的曲线图柱状图都能向右上角增长

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那股价上涨也就是早晚的事情啦

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在谷歌云next大会上

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谷歌推出了两款第八代定制张量处理器芯片

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分别是TPU8T和TPU

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8I首次将训练和推理分开

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8T的专门做训练

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8I的专门做推理

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TPU叫做张量处理单元

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是谷歌专门为机器学习和人工智能

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开发的定制芯片

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八代芯片构成了对英伟达的挑战

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9600个芯片连在一起

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组成一个TPU8T集群

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共享2PB的高带宽内存

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可以提供百亿亿次级别的算力

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最复杂的模型

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也能在一个统一的超大内存里面进行计算

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而负责推理的8I芯片性价比大幅提高

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缩短响应的等待时间

221
00:09:24,690 --> 00:09:28,669
谷歌现在是从硬件到模型一条龙的AI龙头

222
00:09:28,669 --> 00:09:30,600
全球仅此一家

223
00:09:30,600 --> 00:09:33,159
谷歌和油管广告业务的老本行

224
00:09:33,159 --> 00:09:35,639
收入增量仍然非常强劲

225
00:09:35,639 --> 00:09:38,419
云计算和人工智能蓬勃发展

226
00:09:38,419 --> 00:09:43,059
GEMINI模型成功整合集成到了搜索和云业务中

227
00:09:43,059 --> 00:09:46,659
谷歌的人工智能投资已经开始产生回报

228
00:09:46,659 --> 00:09:50,549
并且转化为公司整体业务的强劲表现

229
00:09:50,549 --> 00:09:54,009
之前市场担心谷歌搜索会被AI替代

230
00:09:54,009 --> 00:09:58,259
现在AI帮助谷歌获得了更多的搜索服务收入

231
00:09:58,259 --> 00:10:01,169
AIT代论基本上已经破产

232
00:10:01,169 --> 00:10:05,169
那么谷歌是一支值得在回调时买入的股票

233
00:10:05,169 --> 00:10:08,220
最近反弹了还能不能买

234
00:10:08,419 --> 00:10:11,340
那我认为创新高只是时间问题

235
00:10:11,340 --> 00:10:15,200
也有可能在财报前后就突破350美元

236
00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,159
微软今天上涨了2.07%

237
00:10:18,159 --> 00:10:20,879
但是收盘后突然跳水

238
00:10:20,879 --> 00:10:22,559
跌了1.5%

239
00:10:22,559 --> 00:10:26,559
找原因发现是ServiceNow崩了

240
00:10:26,559 --> 00:10:29,039
那为什么ServiceNow会崩

241
00:10:29,039 --> 00:10:30,019
他崩了

242
00:10:30,019 --> 00:10:32,100
关微软什么事儿呢

243
00:10:32,100 --> 00:10:34,879
因为软件股今年本来就很脆弱

244
00:10:34,879 --> 00:10:36,460
同行有人崩了

245
00:10:36,460 --> 00:10:38,379
就大家都恐慌了

246
00:10:38,379 --> 00:10:41,919
surface now盘后发布财报大跌13%

247
00:10:41,919 --> 00:10:44,519
软件板块本来就是惊弓之鸟

248
00:10:44,519 --> 00:10:47,419
盘后一个财报带崩的软件板块

249
00:10:47,419 --> 00:10:51,139
surface now1季度营业收入37.7亿美元

250
00:10:51,139 --> 00:10:53,000
同比增长22%

251
00:10:53,000 --> 00:10:55,860
超过预期数37.5亿美元

252
00:10:55,860 --> 00:10:59,539
当前剩余履约义务126.4亿美元

253
00:10:59,539 --> 00:11:02,289
锁定了未来12个月的收入增量

254
00:11:02,289 --> 00:11:04,090
全年订阅收入预期

255
00:11:04,090 --> 00:11:06,250
157亿到158亿

256
00:11:06,250 --> 00:11:09,839
同比增长22%到22.5%

257
00:11:09,839 --> 00:11:11,599
与AI相关产品

258
00:11:11,599 --> 00:11:14,759
年度合同价值超过100万美元的客户

259
00:11:14,759 --> 00:11:16,980
同比增长了130%

260
00:11:16,980 --> 00:11:18,559
财报各方面都好

261
00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:20,080
股价却崩了

262
00:11:20,080 --> 00:11:23,059
潜在的原因可能是指引不及预期

263
00:11:23,059 --> 00:11:26,019
财报会议提到中东地区冲突

264
00:11:26,019 --> 00:11:28,328
导致部分订单推迟交付

265
00:11:28,328 --> 00:11:30,028
嗯理由牵强啊

266
00:11:30,028 --> 00:11:32,879
不太支持13%这样的一个跌幅

267
00:11:32,879 --> 00:11:36,659
市场对软件股总的来说还是充满担忧

268
00:11:36,659 --> 00:11:39,029
利好当做利空来砸盘

269
00:11:39,029 --> 00:11:40,289
软件不行

270
00:11:40,289 --> 00:11:42,769
但硬件上涨的股票很多

271
00:11:42,769 --> 00:11:46,389
今天讲AAMD因为最近走强了

272
00:11:46,389 --> 00:11:49,190
去年AAMD与OpenAI联姻

273
00:11:49,190 --> 00:11:52,460
给奥特曼一个目标价就是600美元

274
00:11:52,460 --> 00:11:54,139
2025年10月

275
00:11:54,139 --> 00:11:58,419
AAMD向OpenAI发放了1.6亿股的认股权证

276
00:11:58,419 --> 00:12:00,159
行权价一美分

277
00:12:00,159 --> 00:12:01,360
如果行权

278
00:12:01,360 --> 00:12:03,700
open AI将占股10%

279
00:12:03,700 --> 00:12:05,919
成为AAMD的大股东

280
00:12:05,919 --> 00:12:09,059
但是要解锁期权有一定的条件

281
00:12:09,059 --> 00:12:12,828
其中一条就是股价必须达到600美元

282
00:12:12,828 --> 00:12:16,668
所以苏之峰和山姆奥特曼的目标就是

283
00:12:16,668 --> 00:12:18,440
AAMD600美元

284
00:12:18,440 --> 00:12:22,100
但是这也解释不了为什么最近上涨啊

285
00:12:22,100 --> 00:12:24,980
你看去年10月的事情怎么整啊

286
00:12:24,980 --> 00:12:27,220
整整到现在才涨呢

287
00:12:27,220 --> 00:12:31,220
因为最近AAMD的AI芯片开疆拓土

288
00:12:31,220 --> 00:12:34,299
meta给AAMD6几瓦算力订单

289
00:12:34,299 --> 00:12:36,559
meta将下一代AI基础设施

290
00:12:36,559 --> 00:12:40,190
寄希望于AAMD的MI450芯片

291
00:12:40,190 --> 00:12:44,029
几家科技大厂开始找苏妈买芯片了

292
00:12:44,029 --> 00:12:46,250
财报前开始走强啊

293
00:12:46,250 --> 00:12:50,259
也有可能是对财报利好的一个提前布局好

294
00:12:50,259 --> 00:12:51,940
那今天的节目就分享到这里

295
00:12:51,940 --> 00:12:52,860
感谢大家收看

296
00:12:52,860 --> 00:12:54,039
我们下期节目再见

297
00:12:54,039 --> 00:12:54,779
拜拜

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