大幅降息，美国又输麻了？

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9月18日

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美联储将联邦基金利率目标区间

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下调50个基点

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降至4.75%至5%之间的水平

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这是4年来美联储首次降息

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由于美国在全球金融中的重要地位

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以及美联储广泛的影响力

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这个消息可以说是过去一段时间内

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最重要的财经资讯

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然而伴随降息同时出现的

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也有大量误导性的信息出现

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比如美联储又要祸害全球了

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我们金融战又赢了

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这些信息

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把美联储任何一次货币政策调整

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都视为是一种阴谋或战争

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在摆事实

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讲道理的

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谈任何具体问题之前

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先套上大国博弈中美对决金融战的模板

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先有结论

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然后再强行去寻找甚至编造论据

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由于立场看上去极为正确

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美国又干坏事

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美必输中必赢

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所以即便内容是胡说八道

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也能让一部分人热血沸腾

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不信你就去B站或抖音搜索关键词

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美国降息或美联储降息出来的结果

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基本上一半都是这类内容

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总的来说

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面对这样的互联网环境

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考察的就是我们究竟是立场大于事实

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还是事实大于立场

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只有抛开立场

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从事实和科学角度去思考

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才能让自己的脑袋决定屁股

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认真谈一下科学和常识

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这也是我发布这期主题的主要目的

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一美国为什么降息

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我们说回到主题

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美联储降息

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一是保护就业

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二是稳定物价

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美联储也不例外

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美国当下开始的降息周期

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大背景是美国通胀几乎完全过去

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就业转冷

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已经不适合

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5.25%至5.5%的高利率了

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但最近这两波货币周期

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可以从2020年初说起

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因为一切都是从那个时候开始的

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在2020年3月

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疫情严重冲击美国之后

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美国在2020年的二季度

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GDP的年化几率是-三十十二.9%

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创下自1947年

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美国政府开始跟踪该数据以来的最大跌幅

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美国半个月时间内就多出1000万人失业

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这个时候

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美联储不得不祭出暴利降息和超级量化宽松

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美联储将联邦基金利率迅速降低到零

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并且从3月初至6月初的短短三个月内

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美联储扩表规模高达3万亿美元

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资产负债表规模急速扩张68.9%

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美国在疫情发生后的两年

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经历了三件同时发生的事

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在这三个因素的共同影响下

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美国经济在疫情后迅速恢复

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202120222023年

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美国GDP名义增速分别达到10.7%

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9.1%

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7.5%

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占全球经济比重显著增减

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但由于货币宽松力度太大

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持续时间太长

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叠加战争和供应链影响

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2021年开始

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美国通胀明显加速

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到2022年达到了严重威胁民生的程度

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在通胀开始明显抬头的时候

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美联储并不急于加息

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在2021年8月时

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鲍威尔依然坚持

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通胀是暂时性和过渡性的

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但到年底时

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通胀已开始出现失控的可能

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到2022年6月

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美国CPI同比上涨9.1%

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为1981年以来最高

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这个情况下

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美联储不得不用加息和缩表来应对

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因为加息能够抑制信贷和消费

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有效打压经济过热

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这是常识

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于是美联储在2022年初到2023年中

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延续加息11寸

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但2022年的6月7月九月11月

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每次都是75个基点的大幅加息

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因为当时正好也是美国CPI最高的时间段

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经过连续11次加息

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联邦基金利率来到了5.2%

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五至5.5%的水平

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是2001年以来最高水平

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而且这样的高利率维持了14个月之久

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在这轮加息周期中

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美国通胀从2022年6月的9.1%

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下降到了2024年8月的2.5%

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几乎达到了美联储的通胀目标

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在考虑房租数据的滞后和失真效应后

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美国当下实际的通胀水平已经低于2%

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加上劳动力市场不断放缓

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这个时候如果继续维持高利率

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就可能因为货币政策失误而

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因此美联储9月降息是合适的

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鲍威尔甚至承认

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如果在7月议息会议上

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看到当时的非农就业数据

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那么可能在7月就开始降息

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这也解释了为什么9月降息50个基点

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而非25个基点的原因

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因为一种补偿性的降息

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因此回望疫情后的美国货币政策

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先是遭遇突如其来的疫情冲击

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导致大水漫灌

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挽救经济

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之后由于放水过多

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导致通胀失控

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然后又为了控制通胀大力加息

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现在经济软着陆后开始降息

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就是这样一个正常的过程

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整体来说

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美联储是一个对美国经济负责

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对于那些我们幻想中的收割全世界的阴谋

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美联储既没有动机

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也没有能力去实施

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二美国能靠印钞剥削世界吗

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我们现在聊聊阴谋论

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美联储能靠印钞剥削世界呢

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自从布雷顿森林体系崩溃后

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美元不再与黄金挂钩

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美元的价值仅仅在于美国联邦政府的信用

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目前世界上的货币几乎都是这种性质的

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信用货币

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对应各个国家的信用

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理论上说

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如果美联储无限制印钞

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必然会导致通货膨胀失控

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并损害美元背后的信用

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导致美元贬值

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购买力大幅降低

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美联储不仅没有办法

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通过无节制印钞来剥削全世界

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而且还会因为这个行为导致国内后院起火

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美元信用受损严重侵蚀美国的长期利益

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美国人不会蠢到去做这种得不偿失的事

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另一方面

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尽管经历过很长一段时间的零利率和量化宽松

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美国的货币供给整体上仍是比较理性的

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据环球银行间金融通信协会

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公布的最新数据显示

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美元在全球支付市场中排名第一

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占比接近50%

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而且自2011年以来

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欧元的使用比例显著降低

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这使得美元占全球支付的比例

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这些年来不但没有下降

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反而还在增加

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而除了欧元外

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其他货币和美元都有着数量级的差距

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原因很简单

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目前美元比其他货币更加适合于成为国际货币

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如果现在可以用别的货币去替代美元

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来进行国际贸易和金融结算

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并且能让我们的经济活动效率更高

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那大家自然会抛弃美元

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三

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美国能靠加息剪羊毛吗

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除了上面说到的

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美联储通过宽松来剥削世界的谎言

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还有一个反向的谎言

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那就是美国靠紧缩货币来刺破其他国家

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资产泡沫

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然后获得廉价资产

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最终得到剪羊毛的效果

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这也是一种臆想

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美联储加息只是为了平抑美国国内的经济过热

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因为我们几乎找不到美国剪羊毛的案例

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但每一个经济体有不同的周期

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可能在美国经济过热的时候

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有些地方经济正好衰退

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正好发生在美元加息周期

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就说这是美联储的阴谋

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而在美元降息周期

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同样也很多

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即便考虑美联储国内行为的海外影响

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我们也无法找到

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美元加息和美国之外地区发生经济危机

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存在任何必然联系

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很多持这种阴谋论的人

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都喜欢拿亚洲金融风暴来说

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但亚洲金融风暴并不是

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因为所谓美国收割的结果

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一方面

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在亚洲金融风暴发生期间

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美国并不在加息周期之中

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相反美联储还小幅下调的利率

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1993年3月末时

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的联邦基金利率为5.5%

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经过三次降息

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到1998年11月时是4.75%

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我们找不到美联储通过货币政策

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攻击东南亚国家的证据

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另一方面

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当时美国经济如日中天

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并不是靠剪羊毛得来的

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而是依赖互联网产业带来的新一轮经济扩张

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在美国经济强势的背景下

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即便美联储货币政策不收紧

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美元也不断攀升

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成为强势货币

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亚洲金融风暴的发生原因不在美国

224
00:08:05,899 --> 00:08:08,180
而在这些国家和地区自己

225
00:08:08,180 --> 00:08:10,439
问题在这些亚洲地区自身

226
00:08:10,439 --> 00:08:11,720
他们先有四小龙

227
00:08:11,720 --> 00:08:12,920
后有四小虎

228
00:08:12,920 --> 00:08:14,100
但在发展后期

229
00:08:14,100 --> 00:08:16,040
他们的经济增长越来越依赖

230
00:08:16,040 --> 00:08:17,819
不断增加的资本投入

231
00:08:17,819 --> 00:08:20,379
全要素生产率增长几乎停滞

232
00:08:20,379 --> 00:08:21,220
泰国印尼

233
00:08:21,220 --> 00:08:21,860
马来西亚

234
00:08:21,860 --> 00:08:25,019
中国香港等地经济纷纷进入了泡沫状态

235
00:08:25,019 --> 00:08:26,459
经济杠杆化严重

236
00:08:26,459 --> 00:08:27,879
资产价格飙升

237
00:08:27,879 --> 00:08:31,160
所以使当初这些亚洲国家金融周期见顶

238
00:08:31,160 --> 00:08:32,419
风险积累太多

239
00:08:32,419 --> 00:08:34,509
最终导致出现了金融风暴

240
00:08:34,509 --> 00:08:35,629
风暴的导火索

241
00:08:35,629 --> 00:08:36,509
仅仅是泰铢

242
00:08:36,509 --> 00:08:38,049
取消了联系汇率制

243
00:08:38,049 --> 00:08:39,568
没人逼泰国这么做

244
00:08:39,568 --> 00:08:41,769
在亚洲市场被血洗的过程中

245
00:08:41,769 --> 00:08:44,320
美国的主要资金还在纳斯达克

246
00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,019
那些充满愿景的科网泡沫中爆炒

247
00:08:47,019 --> 00:08:49,299
并没有通过抄底亚洲廉价资产

248
00:08:49,299 --> 00:08:51,409
来实现所谓的剪羊毛

249
00:08:51,409 --> 00:08:52,049
四

250
00:08:52,049 --> 00:08:53,740
怎样远离垃圾信息

251
00:08:53,740 --> 00:08:57,100
所有垃圾信息的共同点是只有立场和情绪

252
00:08:57,100 --> 00:08:57,860
没有逻辑

253
00:08:57,860 --> 00:08:58,759
没有常识

254
00:08:58,759 --> 00:08:59,720
没有论据

255
00:08:59,720 --> 00:09:02,539
比如他们说美联储加息收割世界

256
00:09:02,539 --> 00:09:04,779
却不能给出一个详细的收割流程

257
00:09:04,779 --> 00:09:07,279
也不能举出一个令人信服的例子

258
00:09:07,279 --> 00:09:10,419
又比如他们说美联储降息祸害世界

259
00:09:10,419 --> 00:09:12,759
也不能说出一个具体的过程和逻辑

260
00:09:12,759 --> 00:09:14,059
只是给你一个结论

261
00:09:14,059 --> 00:09:15,409
并且反复重复

262
00:09:15,409 --> 00:09:17,470
似乎重复多了就成真理了

263
00:09:17,470 --> 00:09:19,190
他们的结论也是一样的

264
00:09:19,190 --> 00:09:21,409
那就是尽管美国机关算尽

265
00:09:21,409 --> 00:09:22,409
但美又输

266
00:09:22,409 --> 00:09:23,259
美必输

267
00:09:23,259 --> 00:09:24,860
比如美国加息的时候

268
00:09:24,860 --> 00:09:26,460
就是美债利率走高

269
00:09:26,460 --> 00:09:27,639
利息开支大增

270
00:09:27,639 --> 00:09:28,568
美债要崩

271
00:09:28,568 --> 00:09:29,528
美国输了

272
00:09:29,528 --> 00:09:30,708
美国降息时

273
00:09:30,708 --> 00:09:32,149
就是美国撑不住了

274
00:09:32,149 --> 00:09:34,548
没有拉爆中国自己就要衰退了

275
00:09:34,548 --> 00:09:35,399
美又输

276
00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:36,259
你发现没有

277
00:09:36,259 --> 00:09:37,659
这不就是抗日神剧

278
00:09:37,659 --> 00:09:40,220
换一个假想敌和皮肤出现而已吗

279
00:09:40,220 --> 00:09:43,019
鉴于当下互联网上这类信息实在太多

280
00:09:43,019 --> 00:09:44,700
而且裁判也基本不管

281
00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:45,639
甚至纵容

282
00:09:45,639 --> 00:09:47,850
导致反智化趋势越来越深

283
00:09:47,850 --> 00:09:49,710
最近已经有亲友来问我

284
00:09:49,710 --> 00:09:51,909
IPHONE会不会爆炸这样的问题了

285
00:09:51,909 --> 00:09:54,009
所以我们不得不提高警惕

286
00:09:54,009 --> 00:09:56,730
我这里总结出一些垃圾信息关键词

287
00:09:56,730 --> 00:09:59,340
这些关键词包括但不限于美元

288
00:09:59,340 --> 00:10:00,620
收割货币战争

289
00:10:00,620 --> 00:10:01,279
金融战

290
00:10:01,279 --> 00:10:02,000
剪羊毛

291
00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:03,500
美西方盎撒人

292
00:10:03,500 --> 00:10:04,609
犹太财团

293
00:10:04,609 --> 00:10:06,609
只要出现这些关键词的内容

294
00:10:06,609 --> 00:10:07,828
你可以直接关掉

295
00:10:07,828 --> 00:10:08,749
因为不出意外

296
00:10:08,749 --> 00:10:10,369
用这些词的文章或视频

297
00:10:10,369 --> 00:10:11,519
基本可以确定

298
00:10:11,519 --> 00:10:14,320
都是误导你认知和判断的垃圾内容

299
00:10:14,320 --> 00:10:15,200
我有信心

300
00:10:15,200 --> 00:10:18,349
这个判断方法的准确率能有99%

301
00:10:18,349 --> 00:10:19,269
由小见大

302
00:10:19,269 --> 00:10:20,389
在我们的网友中

303
00:10:20,389 --> 00:10:22,288
关心大国博弈的人太多

304
00:10:22,288 --> 00:10:24,609
关心自己切身利益的人又太少

305
00:10:24,609 --> 00:10:26,679
甚至于很多人已经魔楞了

306
00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,799
遇到任何事情都是想我们赢了

307
00:10:28,799 --> 00:10:29,799
没有怎样赢

308
00:10:29,799 --> 00:10:32,440
他们最大的快乐来源不是自我的提升

309
00:10:32,440 --> 00:10:33,740
不是亲友的幸福

310
00:10:33,740 --> 00:10:35,240
而是美国又枪击了

311
00:10:35,240 --> 00:10:35,639
日本

312
00:10:35,639 --> 00:10:36,409
又地震了

313
00:10:36,409 --> 00:10:38,490
乌克兰又阵亡多少士兵了

314
00:10:38,490 --> 00:10:40,970
胡塞武装又打住欧美商船了

315
00:10:40,970 --> 00:10:42,429
于是他们手舞足蹈

316
00:10:42,429 --> 00:10:43,539
欢呼雀跃

317
00:10:43,539 --> 00:10:44,159
为了赢

318
00:10:44,159 --> 00:10:45,460
他们可以不要人性

319
00:10:45,460 --> 00:10:46,360
不要良知

320
00:10:46,360 --> 00:10:47,200
不要是非

321
00:10:47,200 --> 00:10:48,059
不要秩序

322
00:10:48,059 --> 00:10:48,820
为了赢

323
00:10:48,820 --> 00:10:51,139
他们可以对一个自己从来没去过

324
00:10:51,139 --> 00:10:53,299
也从来没有交集的土地和人群

325
00:10:53,299 --> 00:10:55,940
结下不共戴天的血海深仇

326
00:10:55,940 --> 00:10:57,779
但你觉得这样有意义吗

327
00:10:58,779 --> 00:11:01,068
五中国投资者的最大风险

328
00:11:01,068 --> 00:11:02,009
总的来说

329
00:11:02,009 --> 00:11:04,729
与其去关注大棋局是赢还是输

330
00:11:04,729 --> 00:11:06,799
不如关心自己是赢还是输

331
00:11:06,799 --> 00:11:09,299
因为前者是空虚的情绪性的

332
00:11:09,299 --> 00:11:10,879
后者是看得见摸得着

333
00:11:10,879 --> 00:11:12,559
并且可以改善生活的

334
00:11:12,559 --> 00:11:13,360
过去几年

335
00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:16,279
我自己的生活一直是投资在美国消费

336
00:11:16,279 --> 00:11:18,480
在中国这种内外组合的方式

337
00:11:18,480 --> 00:11:21,419
用美国的通胀享受中国的通缩折

338
00:11:21,419 --> 00:11:23,379
省美国的大幅上涨的租金

339
00:11:23,379 --> 00:11:25,539
赚转美股漫游稳定的回报

340
00:11:25,539 --> 00:11:28,669
然后在中国享受物美价廉的商品和服务

341
00:11:28,669 --> 00:11:29,990
简直美滋滋

342
00:11:29,990 --> 00:11:31,289
可以说在这个时代

343
00:11:31,289 --> 00:11:32,429
我们中国人是可以

344
00:11:32,429 --> 00:11:35,730
比世界上绝大多数的人都过得更加舒服的

345
00:11:35,730 --> 00:11:37,440
对于中国投资者来说

346
00:11:37,440 --> 00:11:40,039
前面内容提到的信息污染是一个风险

347
00:11:40,039 --> 00:11:42,159
因为我们都是认知决定命运

348
00:11:42,159 --> 00:11:43,700
一个人的生活和财富

349
00:11:43,700 --> 00:11:46,610
最终一定会回到自身的认知水平上去

350
00:11:46,610 --> 00:11:49,389
另一个最大的风险就是窗口的收集

351
00:11:49,389 --> 00:11:53,200
它会剥夺你参与投资全球最优质资产的机会

352
00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,139
我们在往期内容中提到过

353
00:11:55,139 --> 00:11:57,580
无论是全球的头部企业还是美债

354
00:11:57,580 --> 00:12:00,610
在降息周期都是有很大的潜在机会的

355
00:12:00,610 --> 00:12:04,190
我非常建议任何一个对自身财务负责的投资者

356
00:12:04,190 --> 00:12:05,950
都开通一个美股账户

357
00:12:05,950 --> 00:12:07,269
至少你能参与

358
00:12:07,269 --> 00:12:08,809
即便你的观点是看空

359
00:12:08,809 --> 00:12:09,919
也可以做空

360
00:12:09,919 --> 00:12:11,419
但由于管控的严格

361
00:12:11,419 --> 00:12:14,379
中国人开通这些账户的难度在加大

362
00:12:14,379 --> 00:12:17,340
几乎可以肯定下一步还会继续收紧

363
00:12:17,340 --> 00:12:20,379
感兴趣的朋友应当抓住关门前最后的机会

364
00:12:20,379 --> 00:12:22,049
一劳永逸解决问题

365
00:12:22,049 --> 00:12:25,129
感兴趣的朋友可以关注公众号一座独立屋

366
00:12:25,129 --> 00:12:27,289
然后在公众号对话框的菜单中

367
00:12:27,289 --> 00:12:29,269
点击右下角的投资美股

368
00:12:29,269 --> 00:12:30,940
根据自己的需要和兴趣

369
00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:33,740
选择香港开户或新加坡线上开户

370
00:12:33,740 --> 00:12:36,899
参考各自文墨所介绍的资源

371
00:12:37,090 --> 00:12:38,629
如果你喜欢本期视频

372
00:12:38,629 --> 00:12:40,049
希望可以点赞关注

373
00:12:40,049 --> 00:12:40,789
支持一波

374
00:12:40,789 --> 00:12:43,080
这将对我有很大的帮助

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