【Graham Stephan】AI末日预言：从软件到楼市的五阶段崩盘

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最近怎么样

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你们好啊

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我是格雷厄姆

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如果你在市场里有资金

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你肯定想听这个

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据称股市将在2026年10月见顶

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随后我们将看到40%的暴跌

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失业率将突破10%

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不到两年财富将蒸发万亿

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所有安全抵押贷款最终将开始违约

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Citrini研究刚刚披露

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他们认为这是未来几年经济的真实预警

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我不得不说这很震惊

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不仅仅因为听起来很戏剧化

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而是因为逻辑极具说服力

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所以我们必须谈谈发生了什么

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为什么世界上最聪明的人认为这已经开始显现

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今天该如何准备

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这是否值得担忧

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我要说真正的风险不是市场崩盘

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我们即将看到的

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而是表面下悄然积累的压力

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直到最终引发崩溃

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不过在开始前

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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我花了一整天阅读这类文章

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这对我来说意义重大

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请点个赞或订阅

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如果还没做的话

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是的

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这可能是我第九百次请求

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我也厌倦了

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但确实有助于YouTube算法

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作为感谢

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这是蚂蚁的照片

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非常感谢

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同时感谢Gemini赞助此视频

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稍后详细说明

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好的

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现在带大家了解情况

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这一切始于我讨论过的最争议文章

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恰如其分的标题《2028年全球智能危机报告》

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目前看来毫不意外

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AI推动股市上涨

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否则我们可能已陷入衰退

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这是整体经济增长的最大驱动力

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但如果我们错了

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如果一切都是表面光鲜

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悄然掠夺普通美国人财富

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好吧

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这就是这篇论文的全部理论基础

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这个理论非常有趣，即人工智能持续变得极其出色且精通专业领域

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突然间企业开始用它取代白领员工

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比如顾问

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财务分析师

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软件工程师

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构成美国劳动力50%的群体

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支撑约75%的消费支出

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接下来会发生什么呢

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这些工人失去工作或遭遇大幅降薪

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企业收入下降

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这促使公司进一步投资AI以降低成本

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更多裁员循环

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我们看到工人消费减少

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然后就会恶性循环

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就实施过程而言

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以及这种情景是否会在未来几年发生

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阿特里将其分解为五个阶段

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第一阶段是软件崩溃

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AI编码能力变得极其强大

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单个开发者可在数周内复刻中型SaaS产品

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当企业续费50万美元年软件包时

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会开始考虑自行开发以节省费用

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这在第二阶段将更加明显

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当进入第二阶段零摩擦

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很快

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AI代理将能处理所有事务

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我说的包括

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购物

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保险

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续保

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旅行预订

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税务准备

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财务咨询

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甚至房地产交易

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此后

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佣金将从2.5%降至1%以下

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代理人开始通过稳定币结算款项

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毕竟

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机器为何支付2-3%的交易手续费

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而只需秒级完成千分之一美分的交易

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这导致第三阶段

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灾难阶段，据他们所说

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情况将变得非常糟糕

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因为失业白领不会消失

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相反

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年薪18万美元的销售经理失业

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转而以4.5万美元在Uber工作

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成千上万的工人重复这一过程

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突然之间，大量高资质人才涌入就业市场

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彼此激烈竞争

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压低所有人的工资水平

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请记住

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收入最高的10%人群贡献了全美50%以上的消费支出

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所以当这些人失业时

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或收入骤降50%，消费将大幅萎缩

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这就是2027年二季度的情况

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在这一情景下

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这意味着我们将进入第四阶段

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现在出现私人信贷体系崩溃，对于不了解的人来说

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已有超过2.5万亿美元投入软件领域

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这些估值假设收入永不下降

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比如Zendesk公司

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作为案例

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以102亿美元私有化交易

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通过50亿美元贷款支持

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然而当我开始用AI替代人工客服

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整个商业模式迅速过时

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但这里有个转折点

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这些公司未从私募投资者融资

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而是通过收购保险公司来融资

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这直接影响到日常生活

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退休账户

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年金

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养老金

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等等

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所有这些

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资金都投入了现在面临压力的交易

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如果情况恶化

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我们将迎来第五阶段

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房贷市场开始崩盘

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白领工人收入减少或失业时

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不得不缩减开支甚至出售房产

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所有人同时被迫抛售

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房价开始下跌

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若房贷高于房产价值

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将触发强制拍卖

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无法填补差额时

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如果这听起来疯狂

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2008年有一句话让我印象深刻

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2028年1月1日贷款就是不良贷款

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2028年1月1日贷款原本是优质贷款

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但贷款发放后世界已发生巨变

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此情景最终导致标普500跌至338点

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从约3500点降至

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这一水平是ChatGPT发布前未见的

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主要城市房价全面下跌

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最可怕的是

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世界上一些最聪明的人已经相信，其中一些变化已经开始发生

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从对你个人的影响来看

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以及这种趋势可能如何真实发展

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这就是你来这儿的目的

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不过在深入之前

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我必须说有必要拉远视角

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观察整个市场的动向

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因为现在没有任何事物直线发展

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你的现金正在贬值

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消费行为

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能源价格在上涨

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如果你不采取行动应对

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你将会落后于形势

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这就是为什么

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我认为每个人都应该至少尝试优化日常开支

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而不改变生活方式

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或者试图预测市场动向

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赞助Gemini信用卡

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通过这张卡

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我的消费不会消失无踪

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我能从日常消费中赚回加密货币

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因此每次消费都能自动积累小额资产

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在交通领域最高可返4%

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餐饮返3%

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食品返2%，其他1%，免年费

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只需像往常一样刷卡即可

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就这么简单

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更提供六款独特不锈钢卡套

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可选黑色

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银色

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玫瑰金

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金色

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比特币主题

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橙色XRP

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或全新Solana版

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更棒的是

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更多信息请查看下方描述

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或查看是否符合资格

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无需影响信用评分

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我已经使用这张卡超过一年

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每天消费都能赚取比特币

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无论是加油、外出就餐或买 groceries

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如果比特币不符合你的需求

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还可选择超过50种其他加密货币

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随时切换

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如果你想立即赚取比特币

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或从数十种加密货币中选择

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访问gemini.com/graham

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或点击下方链接了解更多并注册

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这就是gemini.com/graham，下方链接

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非常感谢

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现在让我们回到视频继续吧

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在我们过柜台之前

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针对这一末日情景的论点以及你可以如何应对

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我想保持公正

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因为今天确实有数据表明这一切可能正在发生

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例如

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Anthropic的首席执行官公开表示

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人工智能可能几乎摧毁所有初级白领岗位

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福特认为就业率将急剧下降

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Salesforce的首席执行官

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声称人工智能已承担公司50%的工作量

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摩根大通管理层已被告知避免招聘

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随着公司在各业务中部署AI

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更不用说微软的

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AI负责人称将在18个月内实现白领工作全面自动化

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哦是的

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这听起来有点极端

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但当全球最值钱公司之一的AI负责人

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说出这话值得我们关注

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除此之外

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就实际数据而言

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斯坦福实验室发现初级职位招聘已下降13%

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高盛估计美国6-7%的

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工人可能因AI失业

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并在2025年单独导致近5.5万岗位流失

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仅2025年

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近5.5万岗位直接因自动化被裁

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不包括微软称将灭绝的500万白领岗位

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私人信贷风险同样真实

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影子违约正在上升

230
00:08:54,909 --> 00:08:59,210
而这一切在非持续增长市场中从未经过压力测试

231
00:08:59,210 --> 00:08:59,629
然而

232
00:08:59,629 --> 00:09:03,309
需要记住引人入胜的叙事不等于准确预测

233
00:09:03,309 --> 00:09:04,740
准确预测

234
00:09:04,740 --> 00:09:06,820
尽管我们刚刚讨论的一切

235
00:09:06,820 --> 00:09:10,990
另一种情景认为完全相反的事情将发生

236
00:09:10,990 --> 00:09:14,750
事实上我们将迎来无限丰裕

237
00:09:14,750 --> 00:09:18,070
关键是在文章发布几小时后

238
00:09:18,070 --> 00:09:19,789
一篇反驳文章随即发布

239
00:09:19,789 --> 00:09:22,818
题为《2028全球智能繁荣》，

240
00:09:22,818 --> 00:09:24,759
采用完全相同格式

241
00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:27,359
但结论完全相反

242
00:09:27,359 --> 00:09:28,778
当我阅读时

243
00:09:28,778 --> 00:09:31,779
他们提出了许多有趣观点

244
00:09:31,779 --> 00:09:36,019
末日论假设所有多米诺骨牌完美连环倒下

245
00:09:36,019 --> 00:09:37,799
没有任何适应性反应

246
00:09:37,799 --> 00:09:38,769
 whatsoever

247
00:09:38,769 --> 00:09:41,769
而历史上从未如此

248
00:09:41,769 --> 00:09:45,669
事实上我们能证明这一点，因为历史上曾有类似预测

249
00:09:45,669 --> 00:09:47,990
到目前为止它们都是错误的

250
00:09:47,990 --> 00:09:48,529
例如

251
00:09:48,529 --> 00:09:49,769
在1964年

252
00:09:49,769 --> 00:09:54,659
一群专家告诉约翰逊总统自动化将创造永久性大规模

253
00:09:54,659 --> 00:09:59,068
失业问题国会为此成立了国家委员会研究此事

254
00:09:59,068 --> 00:10:00,188
正如你所料

255
00:10:00,188 --> 00:10:02,809
他们发现技术会消灭岗位

256
00:10:02,809 --> 00:10:03,610
不是工作

257
00:10:03,610 --> 00:10:06,149
当时失业率为5.5%

258
00:10:06,149 --> 00:10:07,759
到了1960年代末

259
00:10:07,759 --> 00:10:10,019
已降至4%左右

260
00:10:10,019 --> 00:10:12,049
因此反而创造了更多岗位

261
00:10:12,049 --> 00:10:13,049
而不是减少

262
00:10:13,049 --> 00:10:14,509
当然还有互联网时代

263
00:10:14,509 --> 00:10:16,750
互联网本应颠覆一切

264
00:10:16,750 --> 00:10:19,500
在某种程度上他们是对的

265
00:10:19,500 --> 00:10:22,419
旅行社岗位下降了70%

266
00:10:22,419 --> 00:10:24,639
报纸广告收入暴跌80%

267
00:10:24,639 --> 00:10:27,080
但时间跨度是15到20

268
00:10:27,080 --> 00:10:27,980
五年

269
00:10:27,980 --> 00:10:29,980
而非两到三年

270
00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:31,139
我们也可以看看加密货币

271
00:10:31,139 --> 00:10:32,080
在2021年

272
00:10:32,080 --> 00:10:33,820
本应取代货币

273
00:10:33,820 --> 00:10:34,559
银行

274
00:10:34,570 --> 00:10:35,559
然而

275
00:10:35,559 --> 00:10:37,240
银行最终只是采用了它

276
00:10:37,240 --> 00:10:38,000
从我的角度来看

277
00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:39,879
模式始终如一

278
00:10:39,879 --> 00:10:41,590
一项技术出现后

279
00:10:41,590 --> 00:10:43,809
各种叙事随即失控

280
00:10:43,809 --> 00:10:46,818
所有模型都假设无人适应

281
00:10:46,818 --> 00:10:49,178
无人竞争无人创新

282
00:10:49,178 --> 00:10:52,450
人们失去工作却无所作为

283
00:10:52,450 --> 00:10:54,610
但历史显示确实如此

284
00:10:54,610 --> 00:10:57,149
某些领域完全消失

285
00:10:57,149 --> 00:10:58,750
但通常不是一夜之间

286
00:10:58,750 --> 00:11:01,320
所需时间远超预期

287
00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,259
这是他们强调的重要观点

288
00:11:03,259 --> 00:11:05,529
当AI使某事更便宜时

289
00:11:05,529 --> 00:11:07,029
资金不会消失

290
00:11:07,029 --> 00:11:09,110
通常会回归消费者

291
00:11:09,110 --> 00:11:09,669
例如

292
00:11:09,669 --> 00:11:14,000
美国家庭年均服务支出约1.8万美元

293
00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:17,159
其价值本质上是处理复杂性

294
00:11:17,159 --> 00:11:21,090
若AI能降低40%至70%成本

295
00:11:21,090 --> 00:11:21,929
突然之间

296
00:11:21,929 --> 00:11:25,480
这相当于人均4000至7000美元提升

297
00:11:25,480 --> 00:11:28,220
无需额外行动即可免税

298
00:11:28,220 --> 00:11:28,559
第三

299
00:11:28,559 --> 00:11:32,990
橘色板块还假设人们一旦失业就会无所事事

300
00:11:32,990 --> 00:11:38,399
却未考虑到人们会利用AI创造更大或更好的机会

301
00:11:38,399 --> 00:11:39,440
从我的角度来看

302
00:11:39,440 --> 00:11:43,789
创业成本已下降约70%至90%

303
00:11:43,789 --> 00:11:46,100
就像今天你可以创建一个

304
00:11:46,100 --> 00:11:49,639
电子商务业务或任何你能想到的几乎免费项目

305
00:11:49,639 --> 00:11:50,139
第四点

306
00:11:50,139 --> 00:11:51,919
当你实际查看数据时

307
00:11:54,500 --> 00:11:55,379
甚至耶鲁

308
00:11:55,379 --> 00:12:00,620
预算研究显示AI相关职业失业率无显著上升

309
00:12:00,620 --> 00:12:01,259
最后一点

310
00:12:01,259 --> 00:12:03,080
第五点山姆·阿尔特曼本人也说过

311
00:12:03,080 --> 00:12:07,240
许多归咎于AI的裁员其实只是AI洗白

312
00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:12,220
即公司用AI作为裁员借口掩盖本会发生的离职

313
00:12:12,220 --> 00:12:15,799
AI只是被当作替罪羊让理由更站得住脚

314
00:12:15,799 --> 00:12:18,909
因此从我的观点和实际应对措施来看

315
00:12:18,909 --> 00:12:20,610
这就是你真正需要的内容

316
00:12:22,929 --> 00:12:24,799
但同时也假设所有情况

317
00:12:24,799 --> 00:12:27,019
若按完美末日场景的精确顺序发生

318
00:12:27,019 --> 00:12:32,970
没有任何干预措施

319
00:12:32,970 --> 00:12:34,730
从历史来看

320
00:12:34,730 --> 00:12:36,429
几乎不可能

321
00:12:36,429 --> 00:12:37,490
事实是人们会适应市场

322
00:12:37,490 --> 00:12:39,690
政府会介入调整

323
00:12:39,690 --> 00:12:41,419
并创造我们尚未想到的新产业

324
00:12:41,419 --> 00:12:45,299
因此普通人实际能做什么

325
00:12:45,299 --> 00:12:48,259
这里是我的看法

326
00:12:48,259 --> 00:12:51,480
首先应多元化收入来源

327
00:12:51,480 --> 00:12:57,100
若全部收入来自重复性白领工作

328
00:12:57,100 --> 00:13:01,759
今天就应该寻找额外收入来源

329
00:13:01,759 --> 00:13:02,759
不是明天

330
00:13:02,759 --> 00:13:05,840
因为事实是如果你开始使用并利用

331
00:13:05,840 --> 00:13:07,320
让它为你工作

332
00:13:07,320 --> 00:13:10,759
否则将面临学习工具的竞争

333
00:13:10,759 --> 00:13:14,159
转型中表现最佳的人会利用

334
00:13:14,159 --> 00:13:15,679
AI的优势

335
00:13:15,679 --> 00:13:18,899
忽视的人将会落后

336
00:13:18,899 --> 00:13:20,500
最终不得不去做

337
00:13:20,500 --> 00:13:22,139
因为他们别无选择

338
00:13:22,139 --> 00:13:26,440
另外我要说现在有很多免费资源可用

339
00:13:26,440 --> 00:13:28,899
我会在下方描述中链接几个

340
00:13:28,899 --> 00:13:31,899
作为你可以直接观看的贴心提示

341
00:13:31,899 --> 00:13:32,720
这样你就准备好了

342
00:13:32,720 --> 00:13:34,919
第三点继续自我投资

343
00:13:34,919 --> 00:13:37,559
我每天早晨起床前

344
00:13:37,559 --> 00:13:39,159
甚至还没起床时

345
00:13:39,159 --> 00:13:40,139
我就查看市场

346
00:13:40,139 --> 00:13:41,659
进行定投

347
00:13:41,659 --> 00:13:43,899
现在这已经成了我日常的一部分

348
00:13:43,899 --> 00:13:44,759
除此之外

349
00:13:44,759 --> 00:13:45,399
到目前为止

350
00:13:45,399 --> 00:13:48,549
市场已经度过了每一次技术革命

351
00:13:49,710 --> 00:13:51,049
历史上的每一次危机

352
00:13:51,049 --> 00:13:54,269
保持不使用杠杆且不过度借贷

353
00:13:54,269 --> 00:13:57,289
或者押上全部做愚蠢的高风险赌注

354
00:13:57,289 --> 00:13:57,929
比如某件事

355
00:13:57,929 --> 00:13:58,629
千万不要这么做

356
00:13:58,629 --> 00:13:58,970
相反

357
00:13:58,970 --> 00:14:02,299
你应该尽可能分散投资到多个不同领域

358
00:14:02,299 --> 00:14:04,740
并投资那些你不需要用的钱

359
00:14:04,740 --> 00:14:08,220
至少为未来五到七年建立应急储备

360
00:14:08,220 --> 00:14:08,600
是的

361
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,830
我知道我每个视频都在提到这个

362
00:14:10,830 --> 00:14:12,529
你难道不觉得我也厌倦了吗

363
00:14:12,529 --> 00:14:13,750
其实关键在于

364
00:14:13,750 --> 00:14:15,070
这最合理

365
00:14:15,070 --> 00:14:19,960
随时储备六个月的应急资金

366
00:14:19,960 --> 00:14:21,470
如果你绝对需要的话

367
00:14:21,470 --> 00:14:22,809
没有不这么做的理由

368
00:14:22,809 --> 00:14:24,850
我只会不断重复直到

369
00:14:24,850 --> 00:14:25,990
我不再需要重复了

370
00:14:25,990 --> 00:14:26,990
但我仍然需要再说一遍

371
00:14:26,990 --> 00:14:28,759
因为我敢保证有人正在观看

372
00:14:28,759 --> 00:14:29,480
还没做到这一点的人

373
00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:30,820
请终于做到第五点

374
00:14:30,820 --> 00:14:31,559
不要恐慌

375
00:14:31,559 --> 00:14:31,860
是的

376
00:14:31,860 --> 00:14:32,559
标普

377
00:14:32,559 --> 00:14:34,509
五百指数接近历史新高

378
00:14:34,509 --> 00:14:35,950
经济仍在增长

379
00:14:35,950 --> 00:14:37,470
失业率依然低位

380
00:14:37,470 --> 00:14:38,250
抛售一切

381
00:14:38,250 --> 00:14:42,710
因为读了可怕的文章就卖出时机不对

382
00:14:42,710 --> 00:14:44,549
历史上每次都是如此

383
00:14:44,549 --> 00:14:46,470
这一点在1987年成立

384
00:14:46,470 --> 00:14:47,330
2001年

385
00:14:47,330 --> 00:14:49,179
2008年2020年

386
00:14:49,179 --> 00:14:51,899
这些最终都是疯狂盈利的年份

387
00:14:51,899 --> 00:14:52,620
除此之外

388
00:14:52,620 --> 00:14:56,059
文章以知更鸟仍活着结尾

389
00:14:56,059 --> 00:14:57,639
我认为这完全正确

390
00:14:57,639 --> 00:15:00,580
在这种情况下我们的任务是关注现状

391
00:15:00,580 --> 00:15:03,849
然后提前制定更好的计划

392
00:15:03,849 --> 00:15:06,168
比如点赞和订阅

393
00:15:06,168 --> 00:15:07,208
如果你还没做过的话

394
00:15:07,208 --> 00:15:12,029
同时请记住我只是个半改造车库里的普通人

395
00:15:12,029 --> 00:15:13,230
制作YouTube视频

396
00:15:13,230 --> 00:15:15,549
我不知道自己在说什么

397
00:15:15,549 --> 00:15:17,759
所以如果你同意或不同意我的观点

398
00:15:17,759 --> 00:15:19,159
请在评论区告诉我

399
00:15:19,159 --> 00:15:22,820
我会尽力阅读并回复尽可能多的你们

400
00:15:22,820 --> 00:15:23,720
非常感谢

401
00:15:23,720 --> 00:15:24,840
直到下次再见

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