半导体正常调整还是历史大顶？【2026-05-12】

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哈喽大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年5月12号星期二

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股市今天探底回升

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有惊无险

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标普指数下跌了11.83点

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跌幅0.16%收盘

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日K线一根带下影线的小阳线

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日内曾一度跌幅较大

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但下午跌幅收窄

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最终跌幅有限

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这样的日K线并不是看跌信号

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大方向仍然是可以看涨

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只是看涨的同时要有警惕啦

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不能见钩就咬

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追高的风险实在是有点大

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跌幅0.7%

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一日内曾一度跌2%

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让人有点担心

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但下午收复大部分失地

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日K线收盘稳在5日线上

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但下影线的小阳线

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说明向下并不是立即要出现的方向

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但三大指数出现的强弱变化

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道指转强

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纳指最弱

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是股市避险情绪升温的信号

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科技类的诸多板块下跌

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能源保险

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医疗设备

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制药公司

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零售等板块绿色上涨

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这说明资金开始出现避险动作

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卖出大涨的科技股

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买入防御板块

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道指强

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而纳指弱

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通常是大势转为调整的信号

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至少大幅上涨

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高歌猛进的阶段可能是要告一段落了

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昨天警告半导体上涨过快

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并且我猜了个顶

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猜顶并没有什么根据

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只能说是标普一个可能的目标位

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就是7500和7700

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但对于费城半导体指数来说

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上涨斜率发生显著改变

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由45度角的缓慢上涨节奏

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变成了更为陡峭的上升趋势

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一个多月都快翻倍了

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慢牛可以长久

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快牛则有可能是最后的狂欢

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在股市下跌时也有类似效果

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股票从头部开始下跌时

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刚开始宽幅震荡

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大跌时候伴随着强劲反弹

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这时主力一边出货

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一边要维持股价跌太多了

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没有人要给他买啊

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之后股价开始阴跌

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阴跌的角度大约是45度

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跌的时间非常长

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跌的受不了了

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绝望了

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还会有改变角度的快速下跌

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最后的下跌往往是股价从高点打了大折扣后

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还能暴跌

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垂直下跌

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当上涨和下跌的最后阶段

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行情往往较为极端

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直线上涨或是直线下跌

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这个时候啊极有可能就是趋势即将结束的信号

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上涨是由多头不断买入的能量堆积而成

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下跌是空头不断抛售的力量砸出来的

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上涨角度过大

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会过度消耗多头能量

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从而加速见顶

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大空头MICROBERRY也指出

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这种抛物线上涨行情是非常风险的

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他自己做空费城半导体指数

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是通过买入明年到期的看跌期权期限九个月

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看跌期权最大损失就是全部的权利金

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投进去的钱亏光为止

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但是买方获得了在有效期内

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只要标的证券也就是费曼指数暴跌啊

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就有机会获得杠杆收益的权利

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他可能买完就开始亏

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但是今年啊只要半导体大跌

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他就有可能会赚一笔钱

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berry警告说

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现在的半导体指数和2000年科技股

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崩盘前的上涨行情相似

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让他感觉泡沫快要破了

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他建议大家减少股票投资

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尤其是避开科技股

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在美股做空当然是挺难的啦

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十几年来大空头错失了做多的机会

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而且做空还经常被逼空

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可以说做空很难赚到钱

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但今年以来

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bury不断发布空头言论

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而股神巴菲特也收缩了战线

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囤积现金

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其实本质上也是在看空

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当费城半导体指数改变上涨斜率突飞猛进时

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多头能量透支是一个值得警惕的信号

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当然也不是说啊立刻会见顶超买

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可以继续超买

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涨到大家都不相信会下跌时

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真正的下跌就来了

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除了半导体板块整体回调

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消息面上还有一些利空消息

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首先是公布了一个CPI

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早上盘前公布的4月消费者物价指数

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同比上涨3.8%

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创下近3年来新高

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这强化了市场对美联储将长期维持高利率

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甚至可能在年内再次加息的预期

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战争油价大涨

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所以整体通胀上涨是预料中的

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但是劳工局数据显示

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有一半的涨幅是能源成本贡献的

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但住房和食品成本也贡献了涨幅

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剔除食品和能源的核心

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CPI环比上涨0.4%

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略高于预期

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住房成本创下2024年以来最大涨幅

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由于住房成本权重大

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而且房租一涨钱就紧了

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会想着多要一些工资

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而这次的通胀率是3年来

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首次超过了工资上涨的速度

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如果这种情况持续

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那么工资通胀螺旋又要启动

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工资通胀螺旋是一种通胀的

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宏观经济学的典型情形

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要求涨工钱

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工钱一涨

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企业成本提高

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商品和服务要涨价

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从而带动新一轮的物价和工资上涨

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物价和工资螺旋式上涨启动后啊

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就会不断地推高物价

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那么市场看到这样的CPI就像泼了一桶冷水

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交易员开始博弈

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今年不会降息了

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甚至可能会首次加息

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芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比表示

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通胀数据显示

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物价压力可能表明经济过热

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如果看能源以外的部分

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比如服务业

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如果服务也涨了

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潜在经济过热的话

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那么美联储就必须考虑

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如何打破通胀不断升级的恶性循环

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古尔斯密所说的就是工资通胀螺旋

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加息或者是加息的预期管理

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有可能就会成为美联储新的政策方向

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股市当然是不欢迎加息了

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加息预期如果开始有苗头

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那股市会进入中期下跌

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就像2022年那样的

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股市会先下跌

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反映加息预期

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这个提前量可以是半年左右

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正式加息时

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调整就差不多接近尾声

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所以加不加息不在于结果

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而在于传闻和预期

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那目前有没有这样的预期呢

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芝加哥交易所

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美联储利率观察工具汇总的概率表显示

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利率走向正在变得不怎么乐观

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蓝色标记的是概率较大的压注

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发现从2026年到2027年

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全年都不再有低于3.5%的大概率压注

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反而是在2027年4月和6月

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出现了一次加息压注

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利率走势决定股市中期方向

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降息没有啦

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加息若隐若现

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主力板块半导体快速上涨

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消耗能量

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这些都为我们敲响了中期股市调整的警钟

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我们可以不去猜测鼎在哪里

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也无需清仓或者是做空

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但现在再去formal追高最热门的个股

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已经就是相当冒险的动作了

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第二个利空是沃尔什获得了参议院关键投票

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当选了美联储理事

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美联储李氏一个萝卜一个坑

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卧室进来后

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歌王米兰就要回到川普身边去了

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几乎板上钉钉

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但与川普的意愿相反的是

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卧室上台后快速降息已经越来越没有可能

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最近几年黄金大涨

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中国人印度人都喜欢买黄金

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印度人买黄金买了没有外汇

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莫迪居然开始呼吁印度人别买了啊

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莫迪呼吁印度人至少一年内不要购买黄金

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减少能源消耗和不必要的出国旅行

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外汇储备看来是吃紧了一个国家

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如果外汇储备紧张

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它的货币汇率就会不断贬值

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印度的卢比对美元的汇率总是在下跌

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当国家在进出口贸易中还能创汇

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还有能力招商引资时

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汇率会比较坚挺

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观察货币会不会贬值

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其实就是要关注国际收支平衡表

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看看贸易赚不赚钱

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投融资赚不赚钱

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要是都不赚钱

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没外汇了

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汇率撑不住了

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那就要早点换成美元

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实在不行

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换成黄金也可以

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黄金应该会比非美元的纸币要保值

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昨天的评论区

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有观众问说我的投资组合有没有跑赢纳指100

225
00:09:39,889 --> 00:09:41,609
IBTR的网页后台

226
00:09:41,609 --> 00:09:43,828
是可以查看账户表现与业绩

227
00:09:43,828 --> 00:09:46,089
比较基准指数的对比图的

228
00:09:46,089 --> 00:09:48,309
但没有纳指100可以比

229
00:09:48,309 --> 00:09:51,110
那我选了标普500指数来对比

230
00:09:51,110 --> 00:09:52,889
在过去12个月内

231
00:09:52,889 --> 00:09:56,710
我的账户表现是长时间跑赢标普500指数的

232
00:09:56,710 --> 00:09:59,519
要跑赢宽基指数相当不容易

233
00:09:59,519 --> 00:10:01,279
对于上班族来说

234
00:10:01,279 --> 00:10:04,019
简单的定投voo o s spy

235
00:10:04,019 --> 00:10:08,090
QQQ就是最省事又最赚钱的办法了

236
00:10:08,090 --> 00:10:08,970
对了

237
00:10:08,970 --> 00:10:12,250
IVKR的链接放在视频下方评论区

238
00:10:12,250 --> 00:10:14,309
如果还没有点击过的观众啊

239
00:10:14,309 --> 00:10:15,679
请帮我点一点

240
00:10:15,679 --> 00:10:18,419
点击RBKR的链接没有成本

241
00:10:18,419 --> 00:10:22,269
但是能够实打实的帮助到阳光采集频道的运营

242
00:10:22,269 --> 00:10:24,889
在此我先谢谢大家了

243
00:10:25,129 --> 00:10:27,870
那今天我这IBKR账户的截图

244
00:10:27,870 --> 00:10:29,769
净值是21.9万

245
00:10:29,769 --> 00:10:31,490
股市稍有调整

246
00:10:31,490 --> 00:10:33,769
盈利就又回吐了

247
00:10:36,149 --> 00:10:39,490
浮动盈利只剩下2260美元

248
00:10:39,490 --> 00:10:42,289
我在想要不要卖了算了

249
00:10:42,289 --> 00:10:44,250
这只股涨的时间少

250
00:10:44,250 --> 00:10:45,649
跌的时间多

251
00:10:45,649 --> 00:10:47,950
有点让人捉摸不透

252
00:10:47,950 --> 00:10:51,769
然后我一卖过几年涨三倍了

253
00:10:51,769 --> 00:10:54,190
我又成反指了哈

254
00:10:54,190 --> 00:10:56,899
嗯这个事真的很难办啊

255
00:10:57,259 --> 00:11:01,320
还有观众问我听你说微软已经好几次了

256
00:11:01,320 --> 00:11:03,149
我也最近一直在入

257
00:11:03,149 --> 00:11:05,730
我的成本价大概是385

258
00:11:05,730 --> 00:11:07,029
持有200股

259
00:11:07,029 --> 00:11:09,250
我应该按兵不动吗

260
00:11:09,250 --> 00:11:11,529
那这是微软的周K线

261
00:11:11,529 --> 00:11:13,289
看大趋势用哪

262
00:11:13,289 --> 00:11:16,330
我认为周线ma250是重要的

263
00:11:16,330 --> 00:11:17,859
超长期趋势线

264
00:11:17,859 --> 00:11:20,519
十几年来就没有低于这条线的

265
00:11:20,519 --> 00:11:23,629
目前这条线的位置在360

266
00:11:23,629 --> 00:11:26,610
跌破360的概率并不是太大

267
00:11:26,610 --> 00:11:28,950
所以385的成本的

268
00:11:28,950 --> 00:11:31,259
安全边际应该还是不错的

269
00:11:31,259 --> 00:11:34,419
微软可能难以像半导体那样让人暴富

270
00:11:34,419 --> 00:11:38,139
但想要大幅亏损也是挺难的

271
00:11:38,139 --> 00:11:40,440
至于我提的次数多

272
00:11:40,440 --> 00:11:42,200
原因是便宜

273
00:11:42,200 --> 00:11:44,599
有市场错误的可能

274
00:11:44,599 --> 00:11:47,558
但是这是长线投资的思路啊

275
00:11:47,558 --> 00:11:50,419
短线可能还是会相当折磨人

276
00:11:50,419 --> 00:11:52,559
不在主升浪当中的个股

277
00:11:52,559 --> 00:11:55,589
买入了就要有持久战的打算

278
00:11:55,908 --> 00:11:58,229
有观众问怎么看meta

279
00:11:58,229 --> 00:12:01,369
近期meta在宽幅震荡整理阶段中

280
00:12:01,369 --> 00:12:02,929
并不是主升浪

281
00:12:02,929 --> 00:12:05,139
今天的表现好于大盘

282
00:12:05,139 --> 00:12:06,019
大盘跌

283
00:12:06,019 --> 00:12:07,080
它没怎么跌

284
00:12:07,080 --> 00:12:08,759
大盘回升收红

285
00:12:08,759 --> 00:12:10,159
它反弹收率

286
00:12:10,159 --> 00:12:13,649
所以短线盘面比大盘强一点

287
00:12:13,929 --> 00:12:16,509
但是呢这也不是主升浪阶段

288
00:12:16,509 --> 00:12:19,629
机会和风险估计都比较有限

289
00:12:20,070 --> 00:12:22,049
明天川普访问中国

290
00:12:22,049 --> 00:12:24,429
这是全球重要的外交事件

291
00:12:24,429 --> 00:12:28,349
对未来一段时间的经贸往来也是有决定性的

292
00:12:29,948 --> 00:12:33,028
对那些在中国有市场和供应链的美股

293
00:12:33,028 --> 00:12:34,828
明星公司是有利的

294
00:12:34,828 --> 00:12:38,230
对中概股啊可能也是有一些利好

295
00:12:41,169 --> 00:12:42,980
当然包括波音

296
00:12:42,980 --> 00:12:44,860
卖500架飞机

297
00:12:44,860 --> 00:12:47,740
比卖50万个芯片要好看得多

298
00:12:47,740 --> 00:12:49,100
所以市场期待

299
00:12:49,100 --> 00:12:52,179
波音能够收到中国的大量飞机订单

300
00:12:52,500 --> 00:12:55,360
波音虽然是具有垄断属性的公司

301
00:12:55,360 --> 00:12:58,100
全球仅有两个大飞机巨头

302
00:12:58,100 --> 00:12:59,259
一个是波音

303
00:12:59,259 --> 00:13:00,818
一个是空客

304
00:13:00,818 --> 00:13:03,879
但是波音估值93倍

305
00:13:03,879 --> 00:13:06,600
净资产只有不到60亿

306
00:13:06,600 --> 00:13:08,200
市净率30倍

307
00:13:08,200 --> 00:13:11,908
这估值比存储股还贵好

308
00:13:11,908 --> 00:13:14,740
最后说一个没有成功的收购案

309
00:13:14,740 --> 00:13:17,059
game stop想要收购EBAY

310
00:13:17,059 --> 00:13:19,960
但是EBAY完全瞧不起收购方

311
00:13:19,960 --> 00:13:21,568
直接拒绝了

312
00:13:21,568 --> 00:13:24,208
拒绝的措辞非常不给面子

313
00:13:24,208 --> 00:13:27,908
EBAY说GME的收购既不可信

314
00:13:27,908 --> 00:13:29,769
也不具有吸引力

315
00:13:29,769 --> 00:13:34,110
意思是说gm你哪有什么钱收购呢

316
00:13:34,110 --> 00:13:36,289
GEME是一支民音股

317
00:13:36,289 --> 00:13:39,940
在WSB论坛上喊一声潮一波

318
00:13:39,940 --> 00:13:42,559
自身的市值仅仅100个亿

319
00:13:42,559 --> 00:13:47,279
但是他要收购的一倍有490亿的市值

320
00:13:47,279 --> 00:13:49,379
这不是以小吃大吗

321
00:13:49,379 --> 00:13:50,740
可行性不高

322
00:13:50,740 --> 00:13:52,700
还被公开嘲笑了一番

323
00:13:52,700 --> 00:13:55,169
真的是自取其辱啊

324
00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:57,529
好那今天的节目就分享到这里

325
00:13:57,529 --> 00:13:58,450
感谢大家收看

326
00:13:58,450 --> 00:13:59,730
我们下期节目再见

327
00:13:59,730 --> 00:14:00,440
拜拜

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