大…大奇迹日？NaNa说美股(2026.05.12)

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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今天是5月12号

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周二

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CPI数据就像刚出笼的包子一样火热滚烫啊

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冲击市场情绪

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全球股市呢多数下跌

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油价与美债收益率应声走高

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标普500余

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纳指小幅收跌

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道指小幅收涨

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多头急先锋

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半导体板块全线回调

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具体数据显示

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美国4月CPI同比上涨了3.8%

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为2023年5月以来新高

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大幅高于上个月的3.3%

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也高于3.7%的市场预期

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明显反映了汽油价格上升的影响

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环比增速从上个月的0.9%

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放缓到0.6%

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今年2月以来低位符合时残余期

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更关键的是

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剔除掉能源与食品后的核心通胀也重新升温了

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4月核心CPI同比增长2.8%

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为2025年9月以来新高

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高于市场预期的2.7%

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和前值的2.6%

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环比增长0.4%

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为2025年1月以来新高

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高于市场预期

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0.3%和前值的0.2%

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随着能源成本飙升

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战争对美国经济的影响日益显著

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压力可能在未来几个月

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还会逐步的传导到更多的商品

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比如食品杂货还有机票价格都出现了大幅上涨

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如果油价持续这么涨上去的话呢

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消费者未来可能会削减开支

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数据公布之后呢

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市场对美联储政策预期的定价发生了逆转

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交易员们现在普遍预计

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美联储今年全年将会保持利率不变

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美联储观察工具显示

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今年12月降息的概率

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降低到只有2.8%了

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比一个月前的62%大幅下降哈

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但是物价持续走高

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让他的立场呢再次变得模糊

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与此同时

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美伊谈判再次变脸

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伊朗官方媒体报道称

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除非满足五项条件

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否则伊朗不会参加下一轮美伊谈判

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这五个条件分别是一结束所有战线的战争

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二解除所有制裁

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三解冻被冻结的资产

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四赔偿战争损失

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五就承认伊朗对霍尔木兹海峡的主权

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这难怪川普说伊朗的条要求不可接受哈

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这要是接受了和跪着求和也没什么区别了

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如果有必要

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已经有对伊朗升级局势的计划

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另外呢

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美国战略石油储备补充计划落地

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美国能源部宣布

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将会在未来六个月内采购1200万桶原油

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补充战略石油储备

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采购的价格区间为95~105美元每桶

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国际油价快速拉升

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WTI原油今天又冲上了100美元

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油价上涨了

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能源板块集体走强

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同时也加剧了市场对通胀反弹的担忧

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全球国债收益率普遍走高

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10年期美债收益率进一步逼近

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川普的这个T口红线4.5%水平

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大家还记得之前我们分析过的哈

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这4.5%就是美国经济的承重墙

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每次收益率只要逼近或者突破这个水平

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川普呢就会扔出一个重磅利好来对冲

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让收益率随之剧烈回落

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推动股市反弹

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白宫为此什么剧本都写得出来

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而且市场也认可

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至于事实如何

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没有人在意哈

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部分策略师认为

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即便市场环境错综复杂

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我舍仍会维持降息的大方向呃

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只要这个未来是降息而不是加息

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那么无论是六个月落地还是12个月落地

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都没有关系

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摩根三类分析师则称

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窝瑟指掌下的美联储可能转向新的通胀指标

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减少政策前瞻指引

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加速缩表啊

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这可能意味着美债市场的波动将会显著加剧

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在油价与收益率极其走高的压力之下

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股市对于这个4月

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火热通胀数据的反应要平淡得多

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投资者对于美国通胀的持续性呢仍存在分歧

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就是一些人认为这个通胀哈

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呃可能会很快降下来

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如果美伊谈判很快就达成的话

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摩根大通对CPI的情景分析显示

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如果核心CPI环比增速在0.35%

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到0.4%之间

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那标普500日内预计在上涨0.5%

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到下跌0.5%之间横盘震荡

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如果在0.4%到0.45%之间呢

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那通胀人均粘性指数预计下跌

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0.25%到1%

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实际数据出来是为0.4%哈

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就介于这两者之间

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刚好卡在这个中性基准利概率上

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换句话说

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通胀虽然是升温了

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但是并没有失控

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仍在这个市场的预期之内

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今天标普500指数的走势呢

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也完全符合小魔给出的剧本

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日内最深下跌1%之后就立即拉起来了哈

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尾盘大幅收窄了跌幅

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最后就只收跌0.16%

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QQ日内跌破5日均线后呢

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又收回去

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日K收出了一根阴线

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十字星仍处于这条字

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4月初以来的

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非常陡峭的这个上升趋势线的上方

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AI交易的强劲动能

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在一定程度上支撑了市场情绪

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野村证券指出

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美股AI交易尚未结束

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但是呢靠空头回补推高的动力已经接近衰竭了

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呃

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就是该买的人都已经买了

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那只最近连续数日哈出现了现货上涨

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波动率也一起上涨的背离

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科技股期权偏斜降到了历史低位

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市场需要降低风险敞口

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以避免在错误的时机过度投资

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美银表示

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CCTA从4月初低点以来

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重建了大约2000亿美元的系统性多头哈

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仓位几乎拉满了

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如今呢下行场口重新打开

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根据美银的模型计时

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接下来市场继续上涨

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CCTA也不会再追高了

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反过来要是下跌就砸盘

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而高深的模型也显示

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未来一周无论市场上涨还是持平

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CCTA都几乎不会再买入

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但如果市场下跌呢

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GTA未来一周哈虽然不会有大动作

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就是也不会这个嗯急剧下跌

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但是未来一个月

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将会面临三百十九亿美元的剧烈抛售

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这也说明目前的市场结构呈现上行动力有限

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下行尾部风险极大的特征

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赔率对多头来说不利啊

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我们做股市嘛

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你知道很多时候就是看风险收益比看赔率哈

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并没有百分之百的这一个绝对的事情呃

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市场短期或许仍能够保持平稳

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或者甚至小幅上涨

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但是呃最早5月中下旬

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最迟6月份将会出现逆转

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费城半导体指数从高位回落

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收跌3%

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成分股中高通

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美光科技

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英特尔c hr等等热门股集体回调

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据坊间传闻

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在美国政府压力下

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特斯拉呢将原计划交由三星电子生产的呃

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AI6芯片订单转给了英特尔

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其实英特尔和特斯拉合作建造那个最大芯片厂

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ta发B用英特尔也很正常呀

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美国政府参股英特尔

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并且托举他成为国之重器

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那当然可以成为川普政府中期选举时候

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可以拿出来献的功绩嗯

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英特尔股价呢自3月30号低点至今

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已经翻了三倍

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市值增加了4400亿美元

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夸张吧

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空头账面亏损超过了120亿美元哈

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亏得连底裤都没了

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但依然像死硬的钉子户一样死磕不走啊

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英特尔的空头仓位

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如今占流通股比例仍维持在近一年高位

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主要是因为英特尔现在呢贵得离谱

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是市场上最贵的芯片股

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在标普500指数中

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也是属于估值最高的十只股票之一哈

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远期市盈率超过了100倍

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相比之下

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隔壁的那位曾大哥英伟达才24倍呢

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所以这华尔街分析师们看英特尔的眼神

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就像看疯子

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平均目标价给的才85美元

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S3partner董事总经理说

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英特尔现在几乎是每股动能交易的标杆呃

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动能在某个时刻终将停滞

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但是想在动能鼓里面摸顶的人

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通常坟头草都2米高了

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因为跟疯牛趋势死磕

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账户缩水的速度可能比空头认错的速度还要快

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今天做空情绪同样蔓延到了其他芯片股

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费曼指数中

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自3月底以来涨幅位居第二

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第三的美光科技和AMD空头仓位也出现了3L

216
00:09:19,649 --> 00:09:23,370
非曼指数自4月初以来涨了近60%哈

217
00:09:23,370 --> 00:09:26,409
RSI指标初及2011年以来最高水平

218
00:09:26,409 --> 00:09:30,110
是美股市场最拥挤的地方呃

219
00:09:30,110 --> 00:09:33,509
高通股价今天大跌11.4%

220
00:09:33,509 --> 00:09:35,409
领跌费半指数成分股

221
00:09:35,409 --> 00:09:38,129
这只老登股最近被炒的太高了

222
00:09:38,129 --> 00:09:40,019
饼画的又大又圆

223
00:09:40,019 --> 00:09:43,919
但是它的数据中心CPU要到2028年才能出货

224
00:09:43,919 --> 00:09:47,120
所以今天这个生产风险偏好降温之后呢

225
00:09:47,120 --> 00:09:49,840
短线资金立即就选择了获利了结

226
00:09:50,500 --> 00:09:52,820
因为打股价逆势收高

227
00:09:52,820 --> 00:09:54,980
再创这个历史新高了哈

228
00:09:54,980 --> 00:09:57,460
一连续五个交易日上涨

229
00:09:57,460 --> 00:09:59,840
资金在外面和存储光模块

230
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:01,860
那些妖艳贱货们烂够了之后

231
00:10:01,860 --> 00:10:05,269
又回来找大哥这个老实人接盘过日子哈

232
00:10:05,269 --> 00:10:06,509
那大哥能怎么办呢

233
00:10:06,509 --> 00:10:07,830
只能选择原谅呀

234
00:10:07,830 --> 00:10:09,110
作为达子股东们

235
00:10:09,110 --> 00:10:12,639
我们也是老习惯了咱们一大群人把日子过好了

236
00:10:12,639 --> 00:10:13,730
比什么都强哈

237
00:10:13,730 --> 00:10:16,210
大哥如今呢不光是卖芯片

238
00:10:16,210 --> 00:10:18,929
还砸了400亿美元往股权投资

239
00:10:18,929 --> 00:10:21,669
就是把上下有权变成了自己人

240
00:10:21,669 --> 00:10:22,789
做大做强

241
00:10:22,789 --> 00:10:24,009
再创辉煌

242
00:10:24,009 --> 00:10:27,990
VR bean架构下个月市场7月份开始发货

243
00:10:27,990 --> 00:10:29,009
微软谷歌

244
00:10:29,009 --> 00:10:30,570
亚马逊ma甲骨文

245
00:10:30,570 --> 00:10:34,119
这些客户们都已经排好队等着买了哈

246
00:10:34,119 --> 00:10:36,519
虽然个个都说要自研芯片

247
00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:39,429
但是呢嘴上说不要身体很诚实

248
00:10:39,429 --> 00:10:40,690
都在抢着买

249
00:10:40,690 --> 00:10:43,120
在大哥下周财报出来之前

250
00:10:47,600 --> 00:10:48,620
也能够拉起来

251
00:10:48,620 --> 00:10:50,899
就还是可以维持高位震荡

252
00:10:50,899 --> 00:10:52,740
只要大哥没倒下

253
00:10:52,740 --> 00:10:53,980
美股就不会崩

254
00:10:53,980 --> 00:10:56,220
circle昨天盘后公布财报

255
00:10:56,220 --> 00:10:58,179
营收同比增长20%

256
00:10:58,179 --> 00:11:01,659
但是收上市后股权激励等费用大增

257
00:11:01,659 --> 00:11:04,240
影响净利润呢下滑了15%

258
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:05,909
到5500万美元

259
00:11:05,909 --> 00:11:08,309
属于典型的增收不增利

260
00:11:08,309 --> 00:11:11,009
不过呢市场并没有太在意这个利润

261
00:11:11,009 --> 00:11:12,139
短期承压

262
00:11:12,139 --> 00:11:15,220
昨天盘后股价一度暴涨近18%

263
00:11:15,220 --> 00:11:17,740
只是今天盘中就冲高回落

264
00:11:17,740 --> 00:11:19,830
最终呢收跌6.16%

265
00:11:19,830 --> 00:11:22,559
但仍然站在5日均线上方

266
00:11:22,559 --> 00:11:26,139
市场忽略一次性的股权激励开支

267
00:11:26,139 --> 00:11:29,480
更关注的是USDC的扩张

268
00:11:29,480 --> 00:11:33,799
AI支付布局以及监管环境改善带来的长期机会

269
00:11:33,799 --> 00:11:36,360
SQL平台托管的US比

270
00:11:36,360 --> 00:11:39,080
余额同比激增了254%

271
00:11:39,080 --> 00:11:41,779
占流通总量比例从5.4%

272
00:11:41,779 --> 00:11:43,740
上升到17.2%

273
00:11:43,740 --> 00:11:48,059
这说明越来越多的资金呢选择留在circle体系内

274
00:11:48,059 --> 00:11:50,399
平台的粘性明显增强

275
00:11:50,399 --> 00:11:54,360
也意味着未来稳定储备收入呢会持续扩大

276
00:11:54,360 --> 00:11:58,789
如果嗯5月14号clarity法案顺利推进的话

277
00:11:58,789 --> 00:12:02,029
那美国稳定币监管框架进一步明确

278
00:12:02,029 --> 00:12:05,730
作为合规龙头的SOCO也被视为最大赢家之一

279
00:12:05,730 --> 00:12:07,090
瑞士跑鞋

280
00:12:07,090 --> 00:12:11,269
这早上on holding盘前交出了一份超预期的一季报

281
00:12:11,269 --> 00:12:13,750
并且还同步上调了全年盈利指引

282
00:12:13,750 --> 00:12:15,960
股价却低开高走呃

283
00:12:15,960 --> 00:12:19,289
上演这个业绩涨股价跌的戏嘛

284
00:12:19,289 --> 00:12:20,250
财报显示

285
00:12:20,250 --> 00:12:23,710
公司Q1净销售额同比增长了4.5%

286
00:12:23,710 --> 00:12:26,730
净利润呢同比飙升82%

287
00:12:26,730 --> 00:12:28,870
毛利率从59.9%

288
00:12:28,870 --> 00:12:31,009
大幅提升到64.2%

289
00:12:31,009 --> 00:12:32,299
分地区看

290
00:12:32,299 --> 00:12:34,419
亚太市场表现尤为亮眼

291
00:12:34,419 --> 00:12:37,658
销售额同比大增了44.4%嗯

292
00:12:37,658 --> 00:12:41,359
欧洲中东以及非洲市场增长22.8%

293
00:12:41,359 --> 00:12:45,019
美洲市场就指微增3.1%

294
00:12:45,019 --> 00:12:47,320
鞋类业务仍然是收入支柱

295
00:12:47,320 --> 00:12:49,419
而服装与配饰业务呢

296
00:12:49,419 --> 00:12:51,100
分别实现了45%和

297
00:12:51,100 --> 00:12:53,649
71%的高速增长啊

298
00:12:53,649 --> 00:12:55,428
这些数据都非常的亮眼哈

299
00:12:55,428 --> 00:12:56,249
展望未来

300
00:12:56,249 --> 00:12:56,769
On cording

301
00:12:56,769 --> 00:12:58,969
将全年净销售额增长预期

302
00:12:58,969 --> 00:13:00,860
维持在至少23%

303
00:13:00,860 --> 00:13:02,679
同时将毛利率指引了

304
00:13:02,679 --> 00:13:06,200
从六十三三%调到至少64.5%

305
00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:06,799
调整后

306
00:13:06,799 --> 00:13:09,320
伊比塔利润率预计在19.5%

307
00:13:09,320 --> 00:13:10,539
到20%之间

308
00:13:10,539 --> 00:13:11,600
华尔街分析师

309
00:13:14,480 --> 00:13:16,960
是对关税风险担忧

310
00:13:16,960 --> 00:13:18,440
公司明确表示哈

311
00:13:18,440 --> 00:13:20,279
它的业绩指引继续包含

312
00:13:20,279 --> 00:13:22,919
对越南进口至美国产品

313
00:13:22,919 --> 00:13:24,799
征收20%的额外关税

314
00:13:24,799 --> 00:13:27,220
并且没有计入任何潜在的退税

315
00:13:27,220 --> 00:13:29,320
可能就是如果有退市的话

316
00:13:29,320 --> 00:13:31,009
他的业绩其实可以更好

317
00:13:31,009 --> 00:13:34,570
此外公司在5月1号刚完成管理层交接

318
00:13:34,570 --> 00:13:37,549
联合创始人接任联席呃

319
00:13:37,549 --> 00:13:40,490
首席执行官权力过渡期的不确定性呢

320
00:13:40,490 --> 00:13:42,250
对股价形成一定的压力

321
00:13:42,250 --> 00:13:44,669
我觉得这可能是更主要的原因

322
00:13:44,669 --> 00:13:47,470
股价年内至今累跌了约27%

323
00:13:47,470 --> 00:13:50,818
自2025年川普推出关税政策以来

324
00:13:50,818 --> 00:13:52,759
股价就持续承压

325
00:13:52,759 --> 00:13:55,309
反正在川普任期内呃

326
00:13:55,309 --> 00:13:58,970
我觉得就不要碰这些服装鞋类公司的股票了

327
00:13:58,970 --> 00:14:02,070
运动服装巨头安德拉姆盘前呃

328
00:14:02,070 --> 00:14:04,610
公布2026财年第四季度财报

329
00:14:04,610 --> 00:14:06,818
业绩大幅低于市场预期

330
00:14:06,818 --> 00:14:09,678
公司季度营收11.7亿美元

331
00:14:09,678 --> 00:14:12,019
远低于预期的16.8亿

332
00:14:12,019 --> 00:14:13,458
每股亏损三美分

333
00:14:13,458 --> 00:14:15,639
同样不及预期的亏损二美分

334
00:14:15,639 --> 00:14:16,440
与此同时

335
00:14:16,440 --> 00:14:19,600
公司还发布了疲弱的2027财年展望

336
00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,759
预计全年营收将会出现低个位数下降

337
00:14:22,759 --> 00:14:26,059
而分析师平均预期为增长1.6%

338
00:14:26,059 --> 00:14:29,440
这个悲观预期呢主要反映了北美这个关键市场

339
00:14:29,440 --> 00:14:30,820
消费支出疲软

340
00:14:30,820 --> 00:14:33,970
以及宏观经济不确定性带来的持续压力

341
00:14:33,970 --> 00:14:37,899
近年来嗯这个公司一直面临着销售挑战

342
00:14:37,899 --> 00:14:41,080
自创始人kevin plank于2025年3月

343
00:14:41,080 --> 00:14:42,700
重返CEO岗位以来

344
00:14:42,700 --> 00:14:44,960
公司就持续推进业务重组

345
00:14:44,960 --> 00:14:48,958
然而通胀高企及关税政策带来的不确定性

346
00:14:48,958 --> 00:14:51,490
持续压制北美市场需求

347
00:14:51,490 --> 00:14:52,350
截止目前

348
00:14:52,350 --> 00:14:55,409
公司大约30%的商品采购来自越南

349
00:14:55,409 --> 00:14:57,480
面临20%的关税风险

350
00:14:57,480 --> 00:15:00,440
投资者对今天这份财报的反应极为负面

351
00:15:00,440 --> 00:15:02,340
股价暴跌了16.7%

352
00:15:02,340 --> 00:15:05,340
这个股票2015年上市就是高峰

353
00:15:05,340 --> 00:15:07,669
此后呢几乎就是一路下行

354
00:15:07,669 --> 00:15:10,669
EBAY董事会正式回绝了game stop

355
00:15:10,669 --> 00:15:13,120
560亿美元的收购邀约

356
00:15:13,120 --> 00:15:16,379
称董事会在独立顾问协助之下

357
00:15:16,379 --> 00:15:19,080
已经全面评估了这次收购提案

358
00:15:19,080 --> 00:15:22,519
认定这一份收购要约既缺乏可信度

359
00:15:22,519 --> 00:15:24,009
也毫无吸引力

360
00:15:24,009 --> 00:15:27,350
并且还列明了多项对该收购方案的质疑

361
00:15:27,350 --> 00:15:30,879
包括收购融资方案存在重大不确定性

362
00:15:30,879 --> 00:15:33,600
交易落地后的经营运营风险

363
00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:36,830
以及并购将会带来的高额债务压力

364
00:15:36,830 --> 00:15:39,750
众多华尔街分析师也质疑这笔交易哈

365
00:15:39,750 --> 00:15:42,309
因为EBAY的体量要远大于GAMESTOP

366
00:15:42,309 --> 00:15:43,450
后者的收购

367
00:15:43,450 --> 00:15:47,860
资金来源与这个战略逻辑都存在疑问

368
00:15:47,860 --> 00:15:51,659
两家公司几乎不存在任何实质性业务协同效应

369
00:15:51,659 --> 00:15:53,639
EBAY的股价对此呢反应积极

370
00:15:53,639 --> 00:15:55,450
今年收涨2.1%

371
00:15:55,450 --> 00:15:58,929
量子计算股QUBT股价日内冲高回落

372
00:15:58,929 --> 00:16:00,850
盘出暴涨40%

373
00:16:00,850 --> 00:16:02,049
而随后回落

374
00:16:02,049 --> 00:16:05,519
尾盘涨幅收窄到15.7%

375
00:16:05,519 --> 00:16:09,100
嗯Q1营收从去年同期的3.9万美元

376
00:16:09,100 --> 00:16:11,080
激增到370万美元

377
00:16:11,080 --> 00:16:11,720
主要因为

378
00:16:11,720 --> 00:16:16,149
把今年2月份收购的那个鲁米纳半导体公司

379
00:16:16,149 --> 00:16:17,730
营收给并表了

380
00:16:17,730 --> 00:16:20,029
净亏损四百十万美元

381
00:16:20,029 --> 00:16:23,490
去年同期实现净利润1700万美元

382
00:16:23,490 --> 00:16:25,570
这样的财报居然也能够上涨哈

383
00:16:25,570 --> 00:16:28,049
所以小票炒作果然是不看逻辑

384
00:16:28,049 --> 00:16:29,200
只看故事

385
00:16:29,200 --> 00:16:33,159
远程医疗公司HIMS股价呢季后暴跌

386
00:16:33,159 --> 00:16:35,259
公司一季度营收增长4%

387
00:16:35,259 --> 00:16:36,950
到6.08亿美元

388
00:16:36,950 --> 00:16:39,269
净亏损9200万美元

389
00:16:39,269 --> 00:16:42,940
较去年同期的5000万美元亏损显著扩大

390
00:16:42,940 --> 00:16:46,179
公司还发布了疲弱的全年盈利指引

391
00:16:46,179 --> 00:16:48,740
股价现在又回落到50日均线附近哈

392
00:16:48,740 --> 00:16:51,328
看看能不能够守住这个支撑

393
00:16:51,328 --> 00:16:52,448
This why this

394
00:16:52,448 --> 00:16:53,428
真的很暴力

395
00:16:53,428 --> 00:16:54,749
炒作了两周时间

396
00:16:58,609 --> 00:17:00,599
比空气币还要刺激

397
00:17:00,599 --> 00:17:03,918
所以干嘛去玩那些虚拟货币呢

398
00:17:03,918 --> 00:17:05,338
美股更刺激哈

399
00:17:05,338 --> 00:17:08,578
当日可以涨跌三四十%的都很多

400
00:17:08,578 --> 00:17:11,970
没必要再去玩那些嗯空气币了哈

401
00:17:11,970 --> 00:17:14,170
行今天我们就说到这里

402
00:17:14,170 --> 00:17:16,170
明天有PPI数据

403
00:17:16,170 --> 00:17:20,959
如果PPI数据也同样和CPI这样火热超预期的话啊

404
00:17:20,959 --> 00:17:23,818
那可能就会再一次打压市场的情绪

405
00:17:23,818 --> 00:17:28,548
反过来要是PPI数据能够嗯喜忧参半

406
00:17:28,548 --> 00:17:31,950
或者是呃符合甚至低于预期的话

407
00:17:31,950 --> 00:17:35,679
那就会对冲今天这一份火热的CPI数据

408
00:17:35,679 --> 00:17:38,679
那我们就看明天会教出什么样的剧本哈

409
00:17:38,679 --> 00:17:40,960
明天见拜拜

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