【NaNa说美股】20260430又换剧本了？

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大家好

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欢迎回到大大说美股

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今天是4月30号

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周四美股三大股指集体收涨

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标普500余

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纳指都再创历史新高

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标普500呢更是突破了7200点

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这个4月份美股市场涨幅惊人嗯

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标普500累涨了10.4%

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为2020年4月疫情谷底反转以来

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最好的阅读表现

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但是那个时候利率为零

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而且美联储还大放水

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而如今呢10年期美债收益率高达4.3%

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却能够创出这样一个记录哈

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让很多人都感到十分的震惊

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背后最大最大的驱动因素呃

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还是这个强劲的美股企业盈利表现

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纳指呢累涨了15.3%

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这根长阳线吞噬了前面三根阴线

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月K道指这边表现的稍微弱一些

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但是也累涨了7.14%

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今天盘前公布的多项经济数据喜忧参半

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美国3月PC物价指数同比增长3.5%

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符合预期

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比前值2.8%明显抬升

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也进一步偏离了美联储2%的政策目标

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环比增长0.7%

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为2022年6月以来最大单月涨幅

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但是符合市场的预期

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前值为0.4%

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剔除掉食品与能源因素后

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3月核心PC同比增长3.2%

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持平预期

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前值为3%

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环比增长0.3%

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持平预期

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而且还低于前值0.4%

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能源价格波动呢是主要推手

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国际油价持续高位运行

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不仅直接抬高了居民染料支出

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也逐步传导至生产和运输环节

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同时公布的还有

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美国第一季度实际GDP年化季率初值为2%

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虽然较2025年四季度的0.5%

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明显回升哈

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但是低于市产率就2.2%增长的原因呢

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使人工智能相关投资显著增加

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同时去年底美国政府停摆结束后

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带来一定的提振呃

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就业市场方面

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美国上周初请世界今日数为18.9万人

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低于预期的21.5万人

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为1969年9月以来最低水平

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这表明美国劳动力市场依然处于低招聘

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低裁员的稳定状态

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所以不要看那些新闻

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今天报道亚马逊裁员

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明天报道呃

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meta裁员

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实际上美国的劳动力市场非常的健康

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以上这些宏观数据显示

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美国的经济增长加速

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劳动力市场稳健

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商业和消费需求呢强劲

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缓解了对衰退的担忧

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尽管通胀明显抬头

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但市场此前担心油价大涨可能导致通胀失控

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额已经大幅上升了利率预期

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结果今天这个PC1数据出来了

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整体是符合预期的

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虽然高

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但是没有失控

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核心PC1没有继续恶化

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所以某种程度上大家使松了一口系

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因此呢在市交易员把之前压住更阴的仓位

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就加息的那些压注都给去掉嗯

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推动了美债收益率进行回落

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周期股呢也集体反弹

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道指今天收涨1.62%

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大幅跑赢标普与纳指

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昨天我们才刚刚说过哈

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道指与标普最近的走势呢出现了明显的背离

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后面要么倒指补涨

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资金从科技股轮动到价值股

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要么标普与纳值得回调

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三兄弟就是要同心协力啊

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这个共同进退哈

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不能够各过各的那样不就乱套了吗

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今天美股板块表现分化

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大科技不再是唯一的增长引擎

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虽然科技股仍保持强势呃

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但是部分资金呢开始流向传统领域了

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价值股

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工业和金融板块今天显示出了走强的迹象

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投资者正在寻找那些被低估的资产

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以应对经济增长预期

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需要关注这种轮动是否能够持续哈

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改善市场广度

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推动道指补涨

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创出历史新高呃

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还是说只是一个短暂的仓位调整而已

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罗素2000指数ETFIWM

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今天收涨2.16%

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要远好于三大基准指数

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暗示市场广度正在改善

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而不仅仅只是有少数科技巨头支撑了市场的

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流动性

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环境呢依然支持着风险资产

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尽管利率路径仍有不确定性

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波动率指数VIX大幅回落哈低于17

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反映出市场的风险偏好较强

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做空力量遭到挤压

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标普500今天达到了新的里程碑

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收盘站上了7200点

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高盛说的养老金拿230亿美元的抛压

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被市场很轻松的就给吃掉了

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指数在盘出的时候震荡走低呃

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但是过了10:30之后

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就开始被买盘资金给拉起来

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日内剩余时间持续走高

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地下成交量放大

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买盘的力量强劲

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主要推力不再是CCTA散户或者对冲基金

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而是共同基金

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为了4月业绩表现而进行的储存美化操作

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抵消了这个日内养老金再平衡压力

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并且推高指数

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既然今天指数成功收在7200点上方哈

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多头在5月初惯性冲刺嗯

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7240~7250的概率呢

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大幅增加

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无论怎么觉得当下这个大盘涨得太夸张

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现在都还没有到可以看空的时候

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大家还记得前两天美莹说过的哈

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指数这轮涨势可能要冲到7308到

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7377点区域才会见顶

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要么呃等指数先冲上7300点

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要么就等指数先跌破10日均线

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到时候我们再谈啊

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是否要均值回归哈

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苹果现在盘后已经公布了财报

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公司第二财季营收一千一百十二亿美元

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同比增长17%

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略好于预期的1096亿美元

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IPHONE的营收570亿美元

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创历史新高

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基本符合预期额

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净利润296亿美元

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同比增长19%

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每股收益2.01美元

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同样好于预期的1.93美元

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业绩是很不错哈

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营收与利润增速呢都保持两位数

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但是没有AI叙事

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就有点缺乏想象力空间

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不过没有关系

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苹果又拿出了他的杀手锏

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就是回购公司

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批准了高达1000亿美元的股票回购计划

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并且提高派息

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要用钱来砸晕股东们

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在其他巨头疯狂烧钱搞AI的时候

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苹果简直就是一股清流

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完全不掺和AI养股游戏

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稳稳的赚取巨额现金

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并且呢回馈股东们

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反正最后无论谁搞出了最强的AI

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最后都是要触达用户

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而触达用户呢就绕不开苹果

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苹果可以直接接入最好的模型

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迅速商业化哈

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所以谁赢都行

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嗯苹果只要收过路费就可以赚到宝啦

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当然这个策略也不是说完全没风险

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如果AI未来真的变成一个强平台级的入口

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就是可以绕开操作系统

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那苹果才会真正的面临威胁

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但是至少现在看来

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这种情况还没有发生

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现在呢股价盘后忽涨忽跌的还在拉锯当中

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但是波动幅度不大

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可能还在等管理层电话会议上披露更多的信息

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如果明天要是继续保持这种波动的幅度的话

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那末日期权基本就多空双杀了

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油价小幅回落

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但是仍高于100美元

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市场依然相信油价上涨只是暂时的

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未来几个月就会下降

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虽然以色列支持美国与伊朗的外交努

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但是以色列可能很快就需要

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再次对伊朗采取行动

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以确保该政权在未来数年内都无法威胁以色列

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就是以色列

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等不及了哈

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看这个美国与伊朗谈来谈去的有点不耐烦了

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就是你再呃嘴炮不动手

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下BB的话

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我咱们就出手了

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今天中央司令部司令呢

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将会在白宫向川普汇报进一步的军事选项

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所以现在有市交易员选择暂时观望嗯

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软件板块今天被抽血的最厉害

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主要被巨软所拖累

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上次财报大跌是说他资本开支大幅增加

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阿other云业务增速没跟上

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市场担忧它与OpenAI版的过紧

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风险过于集中

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这一次财报大跌呢是说他资本支出意外放缓

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同比增速有三个季度66%

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放缓到49%

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环比从记录高位下降了近15%

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另外呢呃还说他与OpenAI渐行渐远

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市场担忧他缺乏持续变现的AI生态

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你看这正话反话都被华尔街给说了哈

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怎么说都有理

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烧钱多了不行

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少了也不行

219
00:09:25,568 --> 00:09:28,349
本质上其实还是因为call pilot

220
00:09:28,349 --> 00:09:30,609
没有证明他自己的价值

221
00:09:30,609 --> 00:09:32,788
AI投入回报不清晰

222
00:09:32,788 --> 00:09:37,690
市场逻辑呢就是呃微软可能只是算力提供者

223
00:09:37,690 --> 00:09:40,349
而不是AI生态的最终赢家

224
00:09:40,349 --> 00:09:44,269
隔壁的谷歌与亚马逊投资安topi克赚麻了

225
00:09:44,269 --> 00:09:46,188
不像OpenAI这个二五仔哈

226
00:09:46,188 --> 00:09:47,649
天天背刺他爹

227
00:09:47,649 --> 00:09:50,610
巨软当初就应该两边压注的

228
00:09:50,610 --> 00:09:51,809
做人呢要专一

229
00:09:51,809 --> 00:09:54,580
但是投资还是得脚踩多条船

230
00:09:54,580 --> 00:09:56,179
左拥右抱比较好哈

231
00:09:56,179 --> 00:09:58,250
俗称业务多元化嘛

232
00:09:58,250 --> 00:10:00,450
但是跌的最惨的还不是巨软

233
00:10:03,230 --> 00:10:04,580
虽然彩票很好

234
00:10:04,580 --> 00:10:05,460
收入增长

235
00:10:05,460 --> 00:10:07,899
利润率只有现金流都不差

236
00:10:07,899 --> 00:10:11,769
但是他疯狂砸钱做AI基础设施

237
00:10:11,769 --> 00:10:16,370
短期内呢却找不到一个清晰的直接的回报路径

238
00:10:16,370 --> 00:10:18,809
而不像微软谷歌亚马逊

239
00:10:18,809 --> 00:10:20,110
他们有云业务

240
00:10:20,110 --> 00:10:21,529
可以一边卖算力

241
00:10:21,529 --> 00:10:24,879
一边把AI投入立刻就变现回血

242
00:10:24,879 --> 00:10:28,139
形成一个相对闭环的商业模式

243
00:10:28,139 --> 00:10:29,259
在华尔街眼里

244
00:10:29,259 --> 00:10:31,179
meta依然是一个广告公司

245
00:10:31,179 --> 00:10:35,029
但MTA1边宣布继续加大AI投资本开支

246
00:10:35,029 --> 00:10:38,750
一边呢又无法像微软谷歌那样讲出啊

247
00:10:38,750 --> 00:10:40,570
我投入的每一块钱

248
00:10:40,570 --> 00:10:44,519
AI都能够通过云业务赚回来的故事的时候

249
00:10:44,519 --> 00:10:46,600
那市场就开始不买账了

250
00:10:46,600 --> 00:10:49,879
而且大家对小扎当初瞎折腾

251
00:10:49,879 --> 00:10:52,169
搞那个元宇宙的事

252
00:10:52,169 --> 00:10:53,570
记忆深刻哈

253
00:10:53,570 --> 00:10:56,250
嗯属于抹不去的污点了

254
00:10:56,250 --> 00:10:58,649
总怀疑他是不是又上头了

255
00:10:58,649 --> 00:11:00,029
之前搞元宇宙

256
00:11:00,029 --> 00:11:02,049
现在搞AI基础设施

257
00:11:02,529 --> 00:11:05,009
你说你既然是个广告公司

258
00:11:05,009 --> 00:11:06,779
那就好好学苹果嘛

259
00:11:06,779 --> 00:11:08,940
让别人去烧钱搞AI

260
00:11:08,940 --> 00:11:11,379
到时候你去租用别人的就可以了

261
00:11:11,379 --> 00:11:13,259
干嘛自己非得烧钱呢

262
00:11:13,259 --> 00:11:15,370
你又没有自己的语音业务

263
00:11:15,370 --> 00:11:16,450
就是市场

264
00:11:16,450 --> 00:11:20,250
对于梅塔自己建造AI数据中心这个事情吧

265
00:11:20,250 --> 00:11:21,599
并不是那么看好

266
00:11:21,599 --> 00:11:25,759
今天盘前公司还宣布计划通过发行债券

267
00:11:25,759 --> 00:11:28,078
筹集至多250亿美元的资金

268
00:11:28,078 --> 00:11:30,179
那市场一听更不喜欢了

269
00:11:30,179 --> 00:11:32,539
于是股价就被砸出了一个大坑

270
00:11:32,539 --> 00:11:34,799
本质上不是财报不好哈

271
00:11:34,799 --> 00:11:37,460
而是他的商业模式的想象力呢

272
00:11:37,460 --> 00:11:41,200
暂时输给了资本开支的现实压力

273
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:44,779
实际上无论是从估值还是从盈利能力

274
00:11:44,779 --> 00:11:47,450
自有现金流的实现规模来说

275
00:11:47,450 --> 00:11:49,269
meta的基本面都非常的好

276
00:11:49,269 --> 00:11:51,110
可是华尔街既然要砸他

277
00:11:51,110 --> 00:11:52,990
那怎么都能找到理由的

278
00:11:55,639 --> 00:11:57,679
股价今天跳空高开

279
00:11:57,679 --> 00:12:00,409
一举突破了年初的历史高位

280
00:12:00,409 --> 00:12:03,509
如今呢谷歌被视为AI时代的王者

281
00:12:03,509 --> 00:12:07,100
当初华尔街炒作AI取代谷歌搜索业务

282
00:12:07,100 --> 00:12:08,419
现在回头来看

283
00:12:08,419 --> 00:12:11,940
这一切更像是一场情绪过载的集体幻觉

284
00:12:11,940 --> 00:12:12,779
或者意义

285
00:12:12,779 --> 00:12:15,240
AI呢并没有消灭搜索

286
00:12:15,240 --> 00:12:19,080
而是正在被谷歌吸收进了他的搜索体系里

287
00:12:19,080 --> 00:12:21,720
搜索变成了AI增强搜索

288
00:12:21,720 --> 00:12:23,360
广告系统不仅没有崩

289
00:12:23,360 --> 00:12:25,529
反而更精准投放了

290
00:12:25,529 --> 00:12:30,049
当初微软凭借OpenAI也是风光无限过哈

291
00:12:30,049 --> 00:12:32,929
而当时谷歌呢就被视为落后者

292
00:12:32,929 --> 00:12:34,889
如今风水轮流转啊

293
00:12:34,889 --> 00:12:38,919
华尔街的叙事从来就不是在预测未来哈

294
00:12:38,919 --> 00:12:40,460
各位朋友们记住这一点

295
00:12:40,460 --> 00:12:43,019
华尔街只是在不断的换剧本

296
00:12:43,019 --> 00:12:45,220
20212022年的时候呢

297
00:12:45,220 --> 00:12:46,460
说meta不行了

298
00:12:46,460 --> 00:12:49,029
元宇宙烧钱广告鉴定

299
00:12:49,029 --> 00:12:51,250
然后呢说谷歌不行了

300
00:12:51,250 --> 00:12:52,789
AI要干掉搜索

301
00:12:52,789 --> 00:12:55,549
现在呢轮到微软不行了

302
00:12:55,549 --> 00:12:56,789
AI投入太多

303
00:12:56,789 --> 00:12:58,220
回报不清晰

304
00:12:58,220 --> 00:13:01,980
听起来每一轮哈这个剧本都是有逻辑

305
00:13:01,980 --> 00:13:03,539
有数据有理由的哈

306
00:13:03,539 --> 00:13:05,779
但如果把时间拉长了一看

307
00:13:05,779 --> 00:13:09,500
你就会发现一个非常经典的循环

308
00:13:09,500 --> 00:13:13,340
就是华尔街每次先炒作崩塌逻辑

309
00:13:13,340 --> 00:13:14,720
让股价下跌

310
00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:16,110
情绪踩踏

311
00:13:16,110 --> 00:13:17,809
估值压缩

312
00:13:17,809 --> 00:13:20,470
等股价跌出黄金坑了

313
00:13:20,470 --> 00:13:21,950
跌出价值了

314
00:13:21,950 --> 00:13:24,970
然后呢就会突然一夜之间换一个叙事

315
00:13:24,970 --> 00:13:27,409
然后这个巨头完炸回归

316
00:13:27,409 --> 00:13:28,519
股价修负

317
00:13:28,519 --> 00:13:29,600
再创新高

318
00:13:29,600 --> 00:13:32,740
这个套路已经来来回回玩了很多遍了哈

319
00:13:32,740 --> 00:13:34,120
今天判死刑

320
00:13:34,120 --> 00:13:35,360
明天封王者

321
00:13:35,360 --> 00:13:37,019
这就是美股的节奏

322
00:13:37,019 --> 00:13:39,269
也是华尔街赚钱的这个套路

323
00:13:41,549 --> 00:13:45,029
砸盘的理由是微软资本支出放缓呃

324
00:13:45,029 --> 00:13:48,169
所以担忧这个因为打的芯片要卖少了呀

325
00:13:48,169 --> 00:13:51,200
或者呢这个高通禁军呃

326
00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,019
定制芯片业务要挑战英伟达

327
00:13:54,019 --> 00:13:55,450
竞争加剧了呀

328
00:13:55,450 --> 00:13:57,929
反正就随便找一个莫须有的罪名

329
00:13:57,929 --> 00:13:59,429
让资金获利了结

330
00:13:59,429 --> 00:14:01,539
转区域炒其他的股票而已

331
00:14:05,820 --> 00:14:08,879
公司一季度财报全面超出市场预期

332
00:14:08,879 --> 00:14:11,559
并且上调了全年营收指引

333
00:14:11,559 --> 00:14:14,159
Q1营收同比增长22%

334
00:14:14,159 --> 00:14:16,379
净利润25.5亿美元

335
00:14:16,379 --> 00:14:18,269
同比增长27%

336
00:14:18,269 --> 00:14:20,549
公司的建筑设备部门

337
00:14:20,549 --> 00:14:22,870
一季度销售额增长38%

338
00:14:22,870 --> 00:14:25,029
电力部门同样表现亮眼

339
00:14:25,029 --> 00:14:26,809
收入增长22%

340
00:14:26,809 --> 00:14:28,809
这部门销售发电机

341
00:14:28,809 --> 00:14:30,970
发动机和燃气轮机

342
00:14:30,970 --> 00:14:35,009
广泛地应用于工业设施和大型计算中心

343
00:14:35,009 --> 00:14:38,009
那随着AI基础设施建设加速

344
00:14:38,009 --> 00:14:40,330
嗯数据中心的电力需求激增

345
00:14:40,330 --> 00:14:44,129
哈卡特皮勒的这个能源设备就被抢购一空

346
00:14:44,129 --> 00:14:46,450
推动该业务持续放量

347
00:14:46,450 --> 00:14:48,950
所以这家传统工业巨头呢

348
00:14:48,950 --> 00:14:51,659
也受益于AI的建设热潮

349
00:14:51,659 --> 00:14:52,580
展望全年

350
00:14:52,580 --> 00:14:54,139
公司将营收增长预期

351
00:14:54,139 --> 00:14:57,840
从此前的大约7%的复合年增长率呢

352
00:14:57,840 --> 00:15:00,320
上调到了低两位数的百分比

353
00:15:00,320 --> 00:15:03,039
增长就11%到15%之间

354
00:15:03,039 --> 00:15:06,960
同时将全年关税相关成本的预估

355
00:15:06,960 --> 00:15:08,639
从此前的26亿美元

356
00:15:08,639 --> 00:15:11,339
下调至22亿到24亿美元

357
00:15:11,339 --> 00:15:14,198
显示出关税冲击有所缓和

358
00:15:14,198 --> 00:15:16,359
股价今天跳空高开

359
00:15:16,359 --> 00:15:18,029
创下历史新高

360
00:15:18,029 --> 00:15:21,210
年初以来已经累涨了56.3%

361
00:15:21,210 --> 00:15:25,370
甚至跑赢了今年的明星巨头谷歌呃

362
00:15:25,370 --> 00:15:27,330
所以比那个QQ啊

363
00:15:27,330 --> 00:15:29,078
英伟达猛的多了

364
00:15:29,078 --> 00:15:31,318
李来第一季度财报也不错

365
00:15:31,318 --> 00:15:33,318
营收198亿美元

366
00:15:33,318 --> 00:15:35,100
同比大增56%

367
00:15:35,100 --> 00:15:37,019
净利润74亿美元

368
00:15:37,019 --> 00:15:39,220
同比增长168%

369
00:15:39,220 --> 00:15:40,830
简直亮瞎眼

370
00:15:40,830 --> 00:15:42,950
都大幅超出市场预期

371
00:15:42,950 --> 00:15:45,950
并且上调全年营收与盈利指引

372
00:15:45,950 --> 00:15:49,620
公司旗下的减重与糖尿病药物表现强劲

373
00:15:49,620 --> 00:15:51,059
在今天上涨之前

374
00:15:51,059 --> 00:15:52,259
哈里来的股价值

375
00:15:52,259 --> 00:15:54,899
前期高点回撤了约25%

376
00:15:54,899 --> 00:15:56,029
跑输大盘

377
00:15:56,029 --> 00:15:58,049
今天跳空高开之后呢

378
00:15:58,049 --> 00:16:01,990
触及到50日均线这条关键阻力线

379
00:16:01,990 --> 00:16:05,350
只要后面股价回落不回补掉

380
00:16:05,350 --> 00:16:07,029
今天留下这个缺口

381
00:16:07,029 --> 00:16:10,190
那么反弹势头就可以保持完好

382
00:16:10,190 --> 00:16:13,889
股价呢可以继续去突破50日均线

383
00:16:13,889 --> 00:16:16,620
并且去挑战更上方的半年线

384
00:16:16,620 --> 00:16:18,980
若是很快就回不掉这个缺口

385
00:16:18,980 --> 00:16:22,299
那代表多头力竭反弹只是昙花一现

386
00:16:22,299 --> 00:16:25,659
这条五是均线就是反弹的最强的阻力

387
00:16:25,659 --> 00:16:27,559
既然公司业绩这么强劲

388
00:16:27,559 --> 00:16:30,799
我还是比较看好它能够持续上涨的

389
00:16:30,799 --> 00:16:33,799
master card的财报令投资者感到非常失望哈

390
00:16:33,799 --> 00:16:37,889
尤其是和昨天visa的这个强劲表现做对比

391
00:16:37,889 --> 00:16:40,409
公司第一季度业绩呢超预期

392
00:16:40,409 --> 00:16:41,950
营收增长16%

393
00:16:41,950 --> 00:16:44,370
净利润38.8亿美元

394
00:16:44,370 --> 00:16:46,230
同比增长18%

395
00:16:46,230 --> 00:16:51,070
可是它的跨境交易量和增值服务呢出现了减速

396
00:16:51,070 --> 00:16:53,659
而且各地区表现参差不齐

397
00:16:53,659 --> 00:16:56,639
美国地区增长疲软嗯

398
00:16:56,639 --> 00:16:58,940
股价昨天蹭到了visa的热度

399
00:16:58,940 --> 00:16:59,899
跳空上涨

400
00:16:59,899 --> 00:17:02,359
今天就立即被打回了原形

401
00:17:02,359 --> 00:17:05,739
存储龙头SNDK盘后呢也公布了财报

402
00:17:05,739 --> 00:17:07,078
业绩炸裂呀

403
00:17:07,078 --> 00:17:09,700
前瞻指引更是逆天呃

404
00:17:09,700 --> 00:17:11,680
但是股价呢却盘后下跌

405
00:17:11,680 --> 00:17:14,500
可能是股价近期已经涨了很多

406
00:17:14,500 --> 00:17:17,789
所以有部分谨慎资金选择兑现离场

407
00:17:17,789 --> 00:17:20,150
但是这么牛叉的财报

408
00:17:20,150 --> 00:17:21,829
估计只要跌那么一点

409
00:17:21,829 --> 00:17:24,279
就会有承接买盘进来

410
00:17:24,279 --> 00:17:27,000
到明天盘前股价可能就拉起来了

411
00:17:27,000 --> 00:17:28,339
所以空不得哈

412
00:17:28,339 --> 00:17:32,089
嗯逢低做多依然是唯一正确的选择

413
00:17:32,089 --> 00:17:34,130
行今天我们就说到这里

414
00:17:34,130 --> 00:17:35,759
那我们明天见拜拜

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