【Financial Education】暴涨36%！这只股票目标价200美元

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你能再说一遍吗

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精灵正重新爬上书架

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看看精灵股票

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女士们先生们今天又大涨了

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这只股票简直是绝杀行情

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目前这只精灵股票在公开账户已上涨四千五百美元

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这只股票现已飙升36%

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就在过去

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我们可以称之为约七倍

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现在可能有八个交易日了

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目前36%的涨幅

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这对精灵简直是绝杀行情

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今天我们视频开头将讨论精灵股票

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以及接下来股票走势如何

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然后我要分析并谈论其他多支活跃股票

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还有一些新出现的股票

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我可能会考虑买入

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我们将就此展开讨论

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你了解更多关于SoFi股票吗

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今天我们视频将分析SoFi股票

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从我的观点和视角出发

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然后我会回应三个视频片段

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这是六小时前朱利安·伊曼纽尔对PETE的看涨分析

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五万九千股这简直太夸张了

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这不是玩笑话埃德加和丹尼

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我一直是多头但还不够坚定

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这将是值得回应的有趣内容

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接下来这个片段

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华尔街持仓接近历史高位

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期待分析这个片段

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只有一件事

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我只需要你们做一件事

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请轻点点赞按钮

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点个赞

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图标

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让它为我发光

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我感谢你们

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希望你们也喜欢我

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为你们提供这些视频

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告知你们市场动态

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我在寻找机会的市场

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各种情况

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这就是我需要的

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轻点点赞按钮

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请订阅频道

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我们现在

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我都不知道反应频道现在有多少订阅者

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我知道是历史新高

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但具体数字不清楚

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感谢大家订阅频道

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今天请将评论固定在下方

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如果你想要申请德国私密群组权限

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我所有的课程大纲

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一个私密的Discord聊天室

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我今天在这里为私有股票群录制了独家视频

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你想获得所有千 xbox com 的访问权限

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那里会有固定评论

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请务必注意

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我们将在十天后关闭新成员加入

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所以你有十天时间申请并加入

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因为我们将长时间暂停新成员加入

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好的，明白了

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所以是圣诞老人小屋

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我们先来讨论这个

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首先在这里

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嗯

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这显然是一个戏剧性举动

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就在前几天的交易中

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比如三天六个百分点

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接下来elf会怎么走

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所以elf正在接近一百点

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但这并不意味着它会

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嗯

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它们呈直线走势

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可能会有反复回调

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然后价格下跌

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之后将继续强劲反弹

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但我认为elf即将突破一百点

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差不多像

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我们可以称之为六个月到九个月

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从长期来看

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我们将迈向两百点

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根据我个人的看法

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基于我的预测

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这是我为这家公司制定的

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至于elf

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因为大部分产品是在海外生产的

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总有关于物流的担忧

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没错

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通货膨胀

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以及这对elf的利润率有何影响

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只有短期因素

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elf的股价极易受短期波动影响

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人们会过度关注短期增长数据

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如果elf未来几个季度的增长数据持续向好

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所有人都会迅速对elf热情高涨

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elf是

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这是一只有趣的股票

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因为这是一家所有人都应该专注的股票

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长期趋势以及品牌正在采取的行动

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成功品牌在现有利润空间中将表现如何

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收入和每股收益情况

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这才是所有人应该关注的重点

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但不知为何在ELF股票上

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所有人都过度关注短期表现

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无论好坏

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所以如果

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如果人们对关税问题存在大量负面情绪

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你知道的

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激素河航道已经关闭

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就像千万种不同因素一样

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然后大家全都

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ELF股票的市场情绪极其悲观

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没错，一旦增长速度开始改善

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利润率略好于预期，每股收益

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下一刻

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股价就会一路飙升飙升

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长期来看将迈向两百点

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从我个人观点来看

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没错，这基于我的预测模型

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这是我为ELF股票所做的预测

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我的预测显示

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你知道的

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想查看我的ELF预测数据

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我们现在调出来吧

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我们可以这样做

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我们可以这样做

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宝贝

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好的

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我们马上调出来

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我的ELF股票预测

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这是一家

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我

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非常了解

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显然我已经投资这家公司多年

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我说

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你知道的

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我持有的公开账户股份

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追溯到很久以前

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这些股份追溯到很久以前

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这些股份甚至追溯到二月

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2019年

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你知道的

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当我买入这只股票时

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价格是七美元二十八美分

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最近我又在公开账户买入了一些股份

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2026年6月5日

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这些股份已获得3.8%的收益

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以下是ELF的预测数据

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仔细看看这个

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我的牛皮箱营收增长了20%

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平均净利润增长率

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平均净利润率提升至11%

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到2030年

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如果以这样的增速增长

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35到40%

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P值很简单

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Peasy

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柠檬

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挤它

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如果达到这样的增速

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没错

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37到42%

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复合年均增长率

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我看好这家公司的股票未来几年

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我的基准案例只是另一种说法

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我对公司预期

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看看这个

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女士们先生们

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看看这个

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这很合理

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因为这个基准案例过于保守

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看看复合年均增长率

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我应该买入这家公司的股票

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天啊

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在这个案例中我只设定了15%的营收增长

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想想Elf品牌

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拓展国际市场的机遇

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每年提价

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诺托里姆当你想想这条道路

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美容业务将成为更大业务组成部分

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想想未来可能收购的公司

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这并不令人意外

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如果他们做得对

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而我的净利润率

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2030年仅9%

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这不是高数字

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9%很低很低

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尽管如此

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复合年均增长率

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我应该入手

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Elf

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股票应深值20多

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23到28

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这相当极端

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没错

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相当极端

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所以你知道的

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我们拭目以待

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但那是精灵科技的股票

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好的现在

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我们继续聊聊其他几只股票

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如果有新的股票

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我正在考虑买入

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Revolve股价有了不错的上涨

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雪乐思啊

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股价有所回升

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雪乐思不适合长期持有

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这只股票长期有望涨到百元以上

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就像我说的雪乐思

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我最近还聊过这只股票

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当时股价在28美元

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没错我说不管精灵科技涨5美元

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谁知道可能跌到23美元

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也可能涨到33美元

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谁知道呢 不在意

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我关注的是雪乐思接下来50美元以上的走势

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PayPal出现了一点上涨动能

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PayPal的好消息是很难进一步下跌

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原因在于看跌期权价格

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现在都变成个位数了

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目前这个阶段

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当股价期权变成个位数时

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很难被击穿

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但这并不意味不会继续下跌

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但确实非常困难

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美国运通又迎来好日子

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你知道的

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如果人们对

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消费 discretionary 领域

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美国运通将继续上涨

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嗯

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这很棒

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稳定的公司

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几乎无法被颠覆

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谷歌麦当劳

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这里获得更多上涨动能

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我考虑在谷歌麦当劳获利了结

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说实话

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今年打算退出

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5美元以上

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无论怎样

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我讨论过亚马逊和Meta

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这类股票最近

245
00:07:23,879 --> 00:07:25,680
这些股票很强势

246
00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,329
短期确实难把握

247
00:07:27,329 --> 00:07:29,170
因为他们的开支

248
00:07:29,170 --> 00:07:29,689
和

249
00:07:29,689 --> 00:07:29,970
你知道的

250
00:07:29,970 --> 00:07:32,779
没有人真正感到舒适大量购买这些股票

251
00:07:32,779 --> 00:07:33,980
因此他们会看到一些动量

252
00:07:33,980 --> 00:07:35,339
然后立刻卖出

253
00:07:35,339 --> 00:07:37,300
不像AMD或美光科技

254
00:07:37,300 --> 00:07:38,860
或者那些类型的公司你知道的

255
00:07:38,860 --> 00:07:39,259
AMD

256
00:07:39,259 --> 00:07:39,908
美光科技

257
00:07:39,908 --> 00:07:41,389
这些公司会看到动量

258
00:07:41,389 --> 00:07:44,629
然后小幅抛售，接着迎来更大动量并创出新高

259
00:07:44,629 --> 00:07:45,250
没错

260
00:07:45,250 --> 00:07:47,970
像Meta和亚马逊这样的股票并非如此

261
00:07:47,970 --> 00:07:49,819
现在它们会再次迎来交易日

262
00:07:49,819 --> 00:07:50,699
像Meta这样的股票

263
00:07:50,699 --> 00:07:51,459
像亚马逊这样的股票

264
00:07:51,459 --> 00:07:52,439
这些大买家

265
00:07:52,439 --> 00:07:53,819
它们会再次迎来交易日

266
00:07:53,819 --> 00:07:55,180
对了，你可能会问

267
00:07:55,180 --> 00:07:56,399
谷歌为何能例外

268
00:07:56,399 --> 00:07:57,459
谷歌得以例外

269
00:07:57,459 --> 00:08:02,430
因为它们被视为OpenAI受益股

270
00:08:02,430 --> 00:08:04,629
其谷歌产品正在

271
00:08:04,629 --> 00:08:05,449
你知道的

272
00:08:05,449 --> 00:08:07,788
在消费者中非常成功

273
00:08:07,788 --> 00:08:10,709
同时得益于其芯片业务

274
00:08:10,709 --> 00:08:12,088
以及云业务方面

275
00:08:12,088 --> 00:08:15,949
因其多领域可受益于AI

276
00:08:16,500 --> 00:08:22,180
因此被视为比亚马逊和Meta更大的受益者

277
00:08:22,180 --> 00:08:23,660
所以你知道的

278
00:08:23,660 --> 00:08:27,300
这就是为何谷歌持续获得动量并创新高，而亚马逊和Meta则不然

279
00:08:27,300 --> 00:08:29,079
只是徘徊不前

280
00:08:29,079 --> 00:08:31,459
Palantir仍处于

281
00:08:31,459 --> 00:08:31,920
你知道的

282
00:08:31,920 --> 00:08:33,740
Palantir处境艰难

283
00:08:33,740 --> 00:08:35,480
短期股价表现不佳

284
00:08:35,480 --> 00:08:37,568
这就是现状

285
00:08:37,568 --> 00:08:38,168
嗯

286
00:08:38,168 --> 00:08:39,428
关于这一点

287
00:08:39,428 --> 00:08:41,489
现在谈到新股票

288
00:08:41,489 --> 00:08:44,629
我正在考虑买入新股票

289
00:08:44,629 --> 00:08:45,669
我正在考虑买入这只

290
00:08:45,669 --> 00:08:48,360
其中一个是我关注的Pool Corporation

291
00:08:48,360 --> 00:08:50,059
这是一只严重被低估的股票

292
00:08:50,059 --> 00:08:52,849
这是我考虑的其中之一

293
00:08:52,849 --> 00:08:58,089
另一个考虑的是RH，其财报不佳

294
00:08:58,089 --> 00:08:59,568
我给它打了F级

295
00:08:59,568 --> 00:09:00,818
所以我不确定

296
00:09:00,818 --> 00:09:00,979
天啊

297
00:09:00,979 --> 00:09:02,038
像RH这样的公司

298
00:09:02,038 --> 00:09:02,298
它

299
00:09:02,298 --> 00:09:03,619
总在诱惑我

300
00:09:03,619 --> 00:09:04,198
然后我说

301
00:09:04,198 --> 00:09:05,139
我有点想买它

302
00:09:05,139 --> 00:09:07,309
因为我确实喜欢他们的商业模式

303
00:09:07,309 --> 00:09:08,509
只是他们的数据

304
00:09:08,509 --> 00:09:09,429
别让我兴奋

305
00:09:09,429 --> 00:09:11,769
你知道他们在这里更新了损益表

306
00:09:11,769 --> 00:09:13,359
最近情况很糟糕

307
00:09:13,359 --> 00:09:15,178
资产负债表在改善

308
00:09:15,178 --> 00:09:16,359
但还没好

309
00:09:16,359 --> 00:09:16,798
不过

310
00:09:16,798 --> 00:09:17,278
呃

311
00:09:17,278 --> 00:09:17,958
但正在好转

312
00:09:17,958 --> 00:09:19,879
至少方向是对的

313
00:09:19,879 --> 00:09:22,700
所以或者

314
00:09:22,700 --> 00:09:24,539
我真的想开始布局

315
00:09:25,899 --> 00:09:28,639
但我现在还不能做

316
00:09:28,639 --> 00:09:29,899
我真的做不了

317
00:09:29,899 --> 00:09:32,750
除此之外

318
00:09:32,750 --> 00:09:35,049
没什么特别吸引我的

319
00:09:35,049 --> 00:09:36,809
作为新股来说

320
00:09:36,809 --> 00:09:37,610
惠而浦的

321
00:09:37,610 --> 00:09:39,049
这也是让我有点感兴趣的

322
00:09:39,049 --> 00:09:41,909
在几年的住房复苏中

323
00:09:41,909 --> 00:09:42,370
对吧

324
00:09:42,370 --> 00:09:44,190
股价一直徘徊在四十美元左右

325
00:09:44,190 --> 00:09:46,190
有人让我感兴趣

326
00:09:46,190 --> 00:09:46,830
但

327
00:09:48,870 --> 00:09:49,389
是啊

328
00:09:49,389 --> 00:09:51,828
这就是现状

329
00:09:51,828 --> 00:09:52,168
你知道的

330
00:09:52,168 --> 00:09:54,729
让我对惠而浦感到沮丧的一点

331
00:09:54,729 --> 00:09:56,669
不过如果我买这只股票

332
00:09:56,669 --> 00:09:59,570
可能更适合短期交易

333
00:09:59,570 --> 00:10:00,830
一到两年的交易

334
00:10:00,830 --> 00:10:05,159
我不太喜欢用交易心态买股票

335
00:10:05,159 --> 00:10:06,519
我通常更看好公司本身

336
00:10:06,519 --> 00:10:09,100
因为我可以长期投资十年

337
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:09,379
对吧

338
00:10:09,379 --> 00:10:11,139
即使不持有十年

339
00:10:11,139 --> 00:10:14,049
我的思路是持有十年

340
00:10:14,049 --> 00:10:15,629
对吧，所以那个

341
00:10:15,629 --> 00:10:16,070
我心想

342
00:10:16,070 --> 00:10:18,889
我可以持有惠而浦的股票十年

343
00:10:18,889 --> 00:10:19,169
我心想

344
00:10:19,169 --> 00:10:20,789
我不确定那个可能

345
00:10:20,789 --> 00:10:23,830
你知道住房市场未来几年会复苏

346
00:10:23,830 --> 00:10:26,529
然后我会卖出涨到一百甚至更高

347
00:10:26,529 --> 00:10:30,600
所以我不确定，我们再看看这只股

348
00:10:30,600 --> 00:10:31,700
好的现在

349
00:10:31,700 --> 00:10:35,539
所以我安东尼·诺托又买入了二十五万美元股票

350
00:10:35,539 --> 00:10:37,159
所以他现在购买了两支股票

351
00:10:37,159 --> 00:10:39,960
在2026年买入了价值三百万美元的股票

352
00:10:39,960 --> 00:10:40,500
呃

353
00:10:40,500 --> 00:10:41,490
五个独立的仓位

354
00:10:41,490 --> 00:10:42,190
听着

355
00:10:42,190 --> 00:10:42,730
你知道的

356
00:10:42,730 --> 00:10:43,690
就这件事而言

357
00:10:43,690 --> 00:10:44,409
好消息

358
00:10:44,409 --> 00:10:47,870
你知道我喜欢看到安东尼·诺托在买入股份

359
00:10:47,870 --> 00:10:51,349
你知道要么是买入要么是卖出或不买

360
00:10:51,349 --> 00:10:54,708
他可能觉得股票严重被低估了

361
00:10:54,708 --> 00:10:55,749
如果股价低于二十美元

362
00:10:55,749 --> 00:10:58,500
没错 他会用行动证明

363
00:10:58,500 --> 00:10:59,440
我尊重这种做法

364
00:10:59,440 --> 00:11:00,919
我喜欢CEO们的这种表现

365
00:11:00,919 --> 00:11:01,220
比如

366
00:11:01,220 --> 00:11:02,220
如果我的CEO们进来

367
00:11:02,220 --> 00:11:04,350
觉得自己的股票被大幅低估

368
00:11:04,350 --> 00:11:07,490
并且未来五到十年有强劲增长轨迹

369
00:11:07,490 --> 00:11:08,669
那就买入一些股份吧

370
00:11:08,669 --> 00:11:09,529
你有钱的话

371
00:11:09,529 --> 00:11:10,318
就去做吧

372
00:11:10,318 --> 00:11:11,418
所以嗯

373
00:11:11,418 --> 00:11:13,278
我欣赏这让我想说

374
00:11:13,278 --> 00:11:13,839
天啊

375
00:11:13,839 --> 00:11:16,119
这改变了我对目前的看涨观点

376
00:11:16,119 --> 00:11:18,078
我知道这不会改变什么

377
00:11:18,078 --> 00:11:19,278
没有任何改变

378
00:11:19,278 --> 00:11:23,369
因为我的数据和对so i的信心与安东尼无关

379
00:11:23,369 --> 00:11:26,249
所以安东尼·诺托在24小时内买入了价值25万美元的股票

380
00:11:26,249 --> 00:11:28,500
或者没有买入

381
00:11:28,500 --> 00:11:29,500
这基于

382
00:11:29,500 --> 00:11:31,679
这是我看到的会员数量走向

383
00:11:31,679 --> 00:11:32,899
这是我看到的营收走向

384
00:11:32,899 --> 00:11:35,120
未来几年每股收益走向

385
00:11:35,120 --> 00:11:36,159
成为金融巨头

386
00:11:36,159 --> 00:11:36,620
等等

387
00:11:36,620 --> 00:11:37,139
等等

388
00:11:37,139 --> 00:11:37,580
没错

389
00:11:37,580 --> 00:11:41,809
看到CEO挺身而出投入资金

390
00:11:41,809 --> 00:11:42,889
用行动证明你的观点啊

391
00:11:42,889 --> 00:11:43,919
朱莉娅·曼努埃尔

392
00:11:43,919 --> 00:11:44,539
看看这个

393
00:11:44,539 --> 00:11:45,779
谈到标普900指数

394
00:11:45,779 --> 00:11:49,000
我想请埃弗雷公司的战略师朱利安

395
00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,039
感谢今天来访

396
00:11:50,039 --> 00:11:50,990
 pleasure（ pleasure应为英文，可能需调整，此处保留原词）

397
00:11:50,990 --> 00:11:54,509
过去几日市场出现小幅上涨

398
00:11:54,509 --> 00:11:58,870
你以为这不是伊朗潜在和平协议推动的

399
00:11:58,870 --> 00:11:59,669
这就是驱动市场的原因

400
00:11:59,669 --> 00:12:01,629
你认为背后有一些真正支持SpaceX的东西

401
00:12:01,629 --> 00:12:02,309
这其中的一部分

402
00:12:02,309 --> 00:12:03,529
毫无疑问

403
00:12:03,529 --> 00:12:05,620
如果你再仔细看看

404
00:12:05,620 --> 00:12:10,500
公众对股票市场投资非常热衷

405
00:12:10,500 --> 00:12:12,340
纵观历史

406
00:12:12,340 --> 00:12:16,019
公众尤其热衷科技股

407
00:12:16,019 --> 00:12:18,519
而这次正是这样的时机

408
00:12:18,519 --> 00:12:21,000
过去几年我们已经看到这种情况

409
00:12:21,000 --> 00:12:23,740
这是否意味着公众往往引领专业人士

410
00:12:23,740 --> 00:12:28,059
人们对这次IPO存在一定疑虑

411
00:12:28,059 --> 00:12:30,360
但公众热情高涨

412
00:12:30,360 --> 00:12:32,559
从价格走势就能看出来

413
00:12:32,559 --> 00:12:33,240
现在

414
00:12:33,240 --> 00:12:35,679
稍安勿躁，稍等片刻

415
00:12:35,679 --> 00:12:36,600
尽管如此

416
00:12:36,600 --> 00:12:38,799
朱利安·伊曼纽尔，请听我说

417
00:12:39,259 --> 00:12:42,500
我们必须区分这种SpaceX情况

418
00:12:42,500 --> 00:12:45,399
与散户投资者近年的行为不同

419
00:12:45,399 --> 00:12:45,679
没错

420
00:12:45,679 --> 00:12:47,879
散户投资者可能像我这样

421
00:12:47,879 --> 00:12:49,320
有十八年经验

422
00:12:49,320 --> 00:12:51,840
也可能是入市仅九个月的人

423
00:12:51,840 --> 00:12:52,529
没错

424
00:12:52,529 --> 00:12:54,809
听着

425
00:12:56,009 --> 00:12:59,690
我们与过去几年获利千万的人存在巨大差异

426
00:12:59,690 --> 00:13:01,289
与购买SpaceX的人不同

427
00:13:01,289 --> 00:13:02,649
很多人在购买SpaceX

428
00:13:02,649 --> 00:13:02,809
比如

429
00:13:02,809 --> 00:13:03,169
我明白

430
00:13:03,169 --> 00:13:04,818
个人购买SpaceX的人

431
00:13:04,818 --> 00:13:06,379
他们甚至不参与股市

432
00:13:06,379 --> 00:13:06,938
比如

433
00:13:06,938 --> 00:13:08,078
这不是他们的常规操作

434
00:13:08,078 --> 00:13:09,698
我知道有人购买了SpaceX

435
00:13:09,698 --> 00:13:10,818
在IPO期间

436
00:13:10,818 --> 00:13:12,418
比如首日交易

437
00:13:12,418 --> 00:13:15,799
或之后他们不再购买股票

438
00:13:15,799 --> 00:13:20,419
这完全是另一类群体在参与

439
00:13:20,419 --> 00:13:22,759
这种行为与散户投资者

440
00:13:22,759 --> 00:13:25,980
像我和其他获利千万的人不同

441
00:13:25,980 --> 00:13:27,870
所以

442
00:13:27,870 --> 00:13:28,350
让我们

443
00:13:28,350 --> 00:13:30,409
不要混淆两者

444
00:13:30,409 --> 00:13:31,889
也不要否定

445
00:13:31,889 --> 00:13:35,529
因为散户近年确实冲击了华尔街

446
00:13:35,529 --> 00:13:37,710
但这是真正参与市场的投资者

447
00:13:37,710 --> 00:13:40,159
像我和其他实际操作的人

448
00:13:40,159 --> 00:13:41,720
并非那些购买SpaceX的人

449
00:13:41,720 --> 00:13:42,720
因为他们从未真正买过股票

450
00:13:42,720 --> 00:13:43,360
然后他们就说

451
00:13:43,360 --> 00:13:43,950
啊

452
00:13:43,950 --> 00:13:45,169
SpaceX即将上市

453
00:13:45,169 --> 00:13:46,549
我要买它啊 不不

454
00:13:46,549 --> 00:13:46,929
别这样

455
00:13:46,929 --> 00:13:48,769
别把这两群人混在一起

456
00:13:48,769 --> 00:13:49,769
他们在那边

457
00:13:49,769 --> 00:13:50,889
我们在这边

458
00:13:50,889 --> 00:13:51,990
我们不像他们

459
00:13:51,990 --> 00:13:53,190
好的 他们也不像我们

460
00:13:53,190 --> 00:13:53,490
好的

461
00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:55,230
我们完全不同

462
00:13:55,230 --> 00:13:58,590
但另一个意外的好处是现在

463
00:13:58,590 --> 00:14:01,620
油价出现七连涨

464
00:14:01,620 --> 00:14:03,679
这是一个重大利好

465
00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:04,299
在我们看来

466
00:14:04,299 --> 00:14:05,840
我们稍后会详细讨论油价

467
00:14:05,840 --> 00:14:08,440
但你现在关注标普的目标

468
00:14:08,440 --> 00:14:09,500
五千是七千

469
00:14:09,500 --> 00:14:10,440
七百五十

470
00:14:10,440 --> 00:14:13,789
但你说这打开了牛市的通道

471
00:14:13,789 --> 00:14:15,450
你的牛市目标是九千

472
00:14:15,450 --> 00:14:16,009
是的

473
00:14:16,009 --> 00:14:17,240
嗯 为什么

474
00:14:17,240 --> 00:14:19,019
为什么是这样

475
00:14:19,019 --> 00:14:19,879
所以基本上

476
00:14:19,879 --> 00:14:22,419
当你思考牛市如何发展

477
00:14:22,419 --> 00:14:27,990
尤其是科技驱动的结构性牛市

478
00:14:28,029 --> 00:14:31,309
有几个因素会终结牛市

479
00:14:34,220 --> 00:14:36,779
是美联储加息

480
00:14:36,779 --> 00:14:39,629
这已不再可能

481
00:14:39,629 --> 00:14:43,369
过去一周油价下跌

482
00:14:43,369 --> 00:14:45,528
长期收益率上升

483
00:14:45,528 --> 00:14:46,909
这些都没发生

484
00:14:46,909 --> 00:14:50,590
终结牛市的最后一个因素通常是

485
00:14:50,590 --> 00:14:54,779
资本市场的狂热投机期

486
00:14:54,779 --> 00:14:57,240
而对我们来说这仍在未来

487
00:14:57,240 --> 00:15:02,360
但另一个不同是盈利能力远超预期

488
00:15:02,360 --> 00:15:03,749
本来会这样

489
00:15:03,749 --> 00:15:06,408
尽管市场大幅波动

490
00:15:06,408 --> 00:15:08,318
估值仍不透支

491
00:15:08,318 --> 00:15:08,719
你知道的

492
00:15:08,719 --> 00:15:09,698
里克·里德昨天在节目中

493
00:15:09,698 --> 00:15:14,320
他说现在货币市场有大量资金

494
00:15:14,320 --> 00:15:16,799
待命资金仍可投入市场

495
00:15:16,799 --> 00:15:19,818
也许还没完全释放

496
00:15:19,818 --> 00:15:20,538
看起来

497
00:15:20,538 --> 00:15:22,698
可能看到一些半导体销售

498
00:15:22,698 --> 00:15:25,379
有人想获利了结转投SpaceX

499
00:15:25,379 --> 00:15:27,179
可能与加密货币有相似的故事

500
00:15:27,179 --> 00:15:29,120
今天表现稍好，运行得更好

501
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:30,740
但那些观望的资金怎么办

502
00:15:30,740 --> 00:15:31,440
是啊

503
00:15:31,440 --> 00:15:34,129
只是要谈谈半导体业务

504
00:15:34,129 --> 00:15:36,669
如果你看到某些股票翻倍

505
00:15:36,669 --> 00:15:37,289
三倍增长

506
00:15:37,289 --> 00:15:39,529
数月内四倍增长

507
00:15:39,529 --> 00:15:42,629
自然会有获利回吐的预期

508
00:15:42,629 --> 00:15:44,909
正如我们在SpaceX之前看到的那样

509
00:15:44,909 --> 00:15:46,149
但回到你的观点

510
00:15:46,149 --> 00:15:50,139
贝基，八万亿美元在货币市场基金

511
00:15:50,139 --> 00:15:52,769
而利率如何

512
00:15:52,769 --> 00:15:54,909
这些货币市场基金的收益率

513
00:15:54,909 --> 00:15:57,840
我们曾认为过去几周可能会上升

514
00:15:57,840 --> 00:16:00,240
但实际情况并非如此

515
00:16:00,240 --> 00:16:07,019
我认为通胀可能已见顶

516
00:16:07,019 --> 00:16:10,539
未来可能会逐渐降温

517
00:16:10,539 --> 00:16:12,019
这全是胡扯

518
00:16:12,019 --> 00:16:12,299
好的

519
00:16:12,299 --> 00:16:14,960
我不喜欢朱莉·曼努埃尔刚才的做法

520
00:16:14,960 --> 00:16:17,279
我完全不赞同这一点

521
00:16:17,279 --> 00:16:21,429
不不不不不不不不不不

522
00:16:21,429 --> 00:16:24,590
他刚才的行为在我看来完全荒谬

523
00:16:24,590 --> 00:16:26,309
但看到很多华尔街人士

524
00:16:26,309 --> 00:16:27,389
干这种蠢事

525
00:16:27,389 --> 00:16:28,450
我不喜欢这种行为

526
00:16:28,450 --> 00:16:29,470
一点也不喜欢

527
00:16:29,470 --> 00:16:30,490
他们的做法是

528
00:16:30,490 --> 00:16:31,450
好的

529
00:16:31,450 --> 00:16:33,809
谈论7750股

530
00:16:33,809 --> 00:16:34,850
五百美元归入今年

531
00:16:34,850 --> 00:16:37,909
但牛市情景下可达九千

532
00:16:37,909 --> 00:16:40,669
你知道这差距有多大吗

533
00:16:40,669 --> 00:16:44,759
标普指数一千二百五十点的差距

534
00:16:44,759 --> 00:16:46,940
五百与你的预期相比

535
00:16:46,940 --> 00:16:48,840
基准情景与牛市情景对比

536
00:16:48,840 --> 00:16:53,389
这差距之大令人难以置信

537
00:16:53,389 --> 00:16:54,230
就是这样

538
00:16:54,230 --> 00:16:57,350
就像我设定的极端情景

539
00:16:57,350 --> 00:17:00,350
我的基准情景是股价升至150元

540
00:17:00,350 --> 00:17:02,049
未来几年或达180元

541
00:17:02,049 --> 00:17:05,309
但牛市情景股价达五百元

542
00:17:05,390 --> 00:17:07,509
这就是我们讨论的差距

543
00:17:07,509 --> 00:17:09,369
当你谈论差异时

544
00:17:09,369 --> 00:17:10,230
你知道的

545
00:17:10,230 --> 00:17:10,990
请记住

546
00:17:10,990 --> 00:17:12,789
这是价格目标

547
00:17:12,789 --> 00:17:14,618
我们仅剩六个月时间

548
00:17:14,618 --> 00:17:17,078
一千二百五十点的差距

549
00:17:17,078 --> 00:17:19,818
这看起来只是在补漏并试图表现得像

550
00:17:19,818 --> 00:17:20,098
哦

551
00:17:20,098 --> 00:17:20,558
你知道的

552
00:17:20,558 --> 00:17:24,720
今年六千到六十万之间任意价位

553
00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:25,680
拜托啊

554
00:17:25,680 --> 00:17:26,480
这太荒谬了

555
00:17:26,480 --> 00:17:27,240
我不喜欢

556
00:17:27,240 --> 00:17:27,960
当华尔街

557
00:17:27,960 --> 00:17:28,909
做那些事

558
00:17:28,909 --> 00:17:30,229
埃德加·丹尼尔·保罗

559
00:17:30,229 --> 00:17:31,148
我想是回到

560
00:17:31,148 --> 00:17:32,689
五月的六月暴跌

561
00:17:32,689 --> 00:17:37,440
因为你可能认为美联储可能在七月加息

562
00:17:37,440 --> 00:17:38,900
显然这是好消息

563
00:17:38,900 --> 00:17:40,509
如果今天早盘维持

564
00:17:40,509 --> 00:17:40,970
呃

565
00:17:40,970 --> 00:17:42,009
与压力相关

566
00:17:42,009 --> 00:17:42,849
油价

567
00:17:42,849 --> 00:17:45,430
你如何看待当前市场布局

568
00:17:45,430 --> 00:17:46,730
我们清楚了吗

569
00:17:46,730 --> 00:17:47,440
我是说

570
00:17:47,440 --> 00:17:48,940
六月快结束了

571
00:17:48,940 --> 00:17:50,799
但是否摆脱了六月暴跌

572
00:17:50,799 --> 00:17:53,359
七月是否继续

573
00:17:53,359 --> 00:17:54,640
这明显是种迹象

574
00:17:54,640 --> 00:17:55,849
事实上

575
00:18:00,170 --> 00:18:01,388
六月五日

576
00:18:01,388 --> 00:18:01,749
呃

577
00:18:01,749 --> 00:18:04,489
就业数据远超预期

578
00:18:04,489 --> 00:18:05,088
所有人

579
00:18:05,088 --> 00:18:05,828
随后得出结论

580
00:18:05,828 --> 00:18:08,799
美联储可能转向收紧政策

581
00:18:08,799 --> 00:18:12,099
可能提前加息

582
00:18:12,390 --> 00:18:15,789
但随着油价下跌和SpaceX

583
00:18:15,789 --> 00:18:16,430
呃

584
00:18:16,430 --> 00:18:18,199
IPO表现非常

585
00:18:18,199 --> 00:18:18,739
呃

586
00:18:18,739 --> 00:18:19,239
非常成功

587
00:18:19,239 --> 00:18:20,679
而那些犹太人

588
00:18:20,679 --> 00:18:23,369
六月五日一天内发生的事

589
00:18:23,369 --> 00:18:26,069
市场实际下跌超过两点半

590
00:18:26,069 --> 00:18:30,490
你认为SpaceX IPO对整体市场有何提振

591
00:18:30,490 --> 00:18:30,730
我是说

592
00:18:30,730 --> 00:18:34,640
有人认为这将打开通往Anthropic的大门

593
00:18:34,640 --> 00:18:35,160
而我

594
00:18:35,160 --> 00:18:37,319
这对投资者信心是利好

595
00:18:37,319 --> 00:18:38,220
另一方面

596
00:18:38,220 --> 00:18:40,099
这只是埃隆·马斯克

597
00:18:40,099 --> 00:18:42,440
他属于特殊人才

598
00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:42,920
呃

599
00:18:42,920 --> 00:18:46,519
他在零售投资者领域有特别的影响力

600
00:18:46,519 --> 00:18:49,420
那么你如何看待这对市场的影响呢

601
00:18:49,420 --> 00:18:50,079
我我

602
00:18:50,079 --> 00:18:52,700
不过在这方面我有些偏见

603
00:18:52,700 --> 00:18:55,609
自八月以来我一直谈论 roaring twenty twenty 时代

604
00:18:55,609 --> 00:18:56,450
二十二十

605
00:18:56,450 --> 00:18:59,990
这确实感觉 roaring twenty twenty 时代已经到来

606
00:18:59,990 --> 00:19:01,650
我说这是第七年了

607
00:19:01,650 --> 00:19:02,230
不是第六年

608
00:19:02,230 --> 00:19:05,119
这是 roaring twenty twenty 时代的第七年

609
00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,019
我一直预测十年末将达一万点

610
00:19:08,019 --> 00:19:10,799
现在到二零二九年末

611
00:19:10,799 --> 00:19:13,000
我正往这边赶来

612
00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:13,319
我当时想

613
00:19:13,319 --> 00:19:14,440
我要谈什么内容

614
00:19:14,440 --> 00:19:16,779
你知道十年末将达到一万点

615
00:19:16,779 --> 00:19:18,599
你的目标是八十二

616
00:19:18,599 --> 00:19:19,799
五十是今年目标

617
00:19:19,799 --> 00:19:20,720
这仍是你的目标吗

618
00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:22,519
你是否要八十二是目标

619
00:19:22,519 --> 00:19:22,940
嗯

620
00:19:22,940 --> 00:19:24,519
我一直是多头阵营中的一员

621
00:19:24,519 --> 00:19:25,960
但并未充分看多

622
00:19:25,960 --> 00:19:27,319
这真的非常非凡

623
00:19:27,319 --> 00:19:30,140
我们身处我所说的非 FOMO 市场

624
00:19:30,140 --> 00:19:31,420
而是女性主导市场

625
00:19:31,420 --> 00:19:32,799
女性指

626
00:19:32,799 --> 00:19:33,779
辉煌的盈利表现

627
00:19:33,779 --> 00:19:36,579
动量盈利强劲异常

628
00:19:36,579 --> 00:19:39,039
你是否惊讶于其强度

629
00:19:39,039 --> 00:19:41,140
顺便说一句每天早上见到你很高兴

630
00:19:41,140 --> 00:19:42,279
期货正在飙升

631
00:19:42,279 --> 00:19:45,160
曾有一种观点我想回到能源话题

632
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:47,240
每加仑四十四美元

633
00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:50,299
五美元汽油将压垮消费者

634
00:19:50,299 --> 00:19:52,339
但并未接近这一水平

635
00:19:52,339 --> 00:19:54,240
让我给大家发出重要警告

636
00:19:54,240 --> 00:19:57,720
在继续视频前快速提醒

637
00:19:57,720 --> 00:19:58,509
好的

638
00:19:58,509 --> 00:19:59,430
重大警告

639
00:19:59,430 --> 00:20:01,390
因为外界正在讨论

640
00:20:01,390 --> 00:20:01,930
我心想

641
00:20:01,930 --> 00:20:02,309
呃

642
00:20:02,309 --> 00:20:04,190
我觉得必须提醒所有人

643
00:20:04,190 --> 00:20:07,119
注意 SpaceX

644
00:20:07,119 --> 00:20:09,150
越来越多的人开始说

645
00:20:09,150 --> 00:20:10,670
我想做空它

646
00:20:10,670 --> 00:20:11,710
这太荒谬了

647
00:20:11,710 --> 00:20:12,829
估值完全不合理

648
00:20:12,829 --> 00:20:14,710
我同意这个估值很愚蠢

649
00:20:14,710 --> 00:20:15,950
简直荒谬透顶

650
00:20:15,950 --> 00:20:18,609
你知道这完全疯狂

651
00:20:18,609 --> 00:20:20,900
但所有这些人认为

652
00:20:20,900 --> 00:20:21,619
你知道的

653
00:20:21,619 --> 00:20:25,420
你要在时机上拿捏准，这确实很难

654
00:20:26,259 --> 00:20:29,959
我过去成功做空特斯拉股票并赚了大钱

655
00:20:29,959 --> 00:20:33,299
但这很艰难，非常艰难，务必记住

656
00:20:33,299 --> 00:20:34,220
我对特斯拉非常了解

657
00:20:34,220 --> 00:20:36,140
我从他们上市以来就跟踪这家公司

658
00:20:36,140 --> 00:20:38,240
比如是2010年还是2011年

659
00:20:38,240 --> 00:20:40,099
我是特斯拉的投资者

660
00:20:40,099 --> 00:20:42,720
在特斯拉股票上赚了巨额财富

661
00:20:42,720 --> 00:20:44,460
对这家公司了解得非常透彻

662
00:20:44,460 --> 00:20:48,359
所以像我理解散户投资者群体

663
00:20:48,359 --> 00:20:51,299
以及他们何时会情绪低落或亢奋

664
00:20:51,299 --> 00:20:55,440
但我要告诉你，人们长期做空特斯拉已损失惨重

665
00:20:55,640 --> 00:20:57,720
因为他们看估值觉得这很愚蠢

666
00:20:57,720 --> 00:20:58,460
这简直荒唐

667
00:20:58,460 --> 00:20:59,400
为什么会被定在这个价位

668
00:20:59,400 --> 00:21:00,339
它必须下跌

669
00:21:00,339 --> 00:21:04,579
然后许多非常聪明的人因此损失数十亿美元

670
00:21:04,579 --> 00:21:07,388
长期做空该股票已损失数百亿美元

671
00:21:07,388 --> 00:21:08,920
至于SpaceX

672
00:21:08,920 --> 00:21:10,740
我们面临类似的情况

673
00:21:10,740 --> 00:21:12,859
估值简直疯狂

674
00:21:12,859 --> 00:21:14,720
这完全没道理啊

675
00:21:14,720 --> 00:21:16,589
但你无法理解

676
00:21:16,589 --> 00:21:20,349
像特斯拉、SpaceX和马斯克的股票

677
00:21:20,349 --> 00:21:22,250
更像是赌徒的五分注

678
00:21:22,250 --> 00:21:25,009
他们不关注市盈率

679
00:21:25,009 --> 00:21:26,130
前向市盈率

680
00:21:26,130 --> 00:21:27,480
市销率

681
00:21:27,480 --> 00:21:28,880
这些公司并未按常规方式估值

682
00:21:28,880 --> 00:21:32,440
和市场上的其他公司完全不同

683
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,160
我们只是想拥有它

684
00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:36,420
完全是不同的思维模式

685
00:21:36,420 --> 00:21:41,319
当你观察这些公司及其估值

686
00:21:41,319 --> 00:21:43,460
并说这不对

687
00:21:43,980 --> 00:21:44,720
好吧

688
00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,750
但这不意味着所有人都会低价抛售

689
00:21:47,750 --> 00:21:51,289
这些股票完全受情绪驱动

690
00:21:51,289 --> 00:21:53,509
如果SpaceX的市场情绪极度高涨

691
00:21:53,509 --> 00:21:59,329
短期股价会表现良好，随后当情绪转冷

692
00:21:59,329 --> 00:22:01,990
无论何时，可能是下周

693
00:22:01,990 --> 00:22:02,690
下个月

694
00:22:02,690 --> 00:22:03,569
六个月后

695
00:22:03,569 --> 00:22:04,670
三年后

696
00:22:04,670 --> 00:22:06,430
股价将大幅下跌

697
00:22:06,430 --> 00:22:10,109
但你要说它明天就会下跌

698
00:22:10,109 --> 00:22:11,970
因为它以销售价格交易

699
00:22:11,970 --> 00:22:14,799
你在向靶心投掷飞镖

700
00:22:14,960 --> 00:22:18,599
必须是情绪突然急剧恶化押注

701
00:22:18,599 --> 00:22:20,440
并非高估值

702
00:22:20,440 --> 00:22:21,849
这是区别所在

703
00:22:21,849 --> 00:22:22,930
还有其他股票

704
00:22:22,930 --> 00:22:24,369
甚至市场中的其他股票

705
00:22:24,369 --> 00:22:26,369
有时很难押注估值

706
00:22:26,369 --> 00:22:27,730
在下跌方面

707
00:22:27,730 --> 00:22:30,579
需要催化剂推动股价下行

708
00:22:30,579 --> 00:22:31,940
什么会拖累股价

709
00:22:31,940 --> 00:22:33,940
短期内什么会让SpaceX下跌

710
00:22:33,940 --> 00:22:35,200
是什么催化剂

711
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:36,779
我等一下

712
00:22:37,259 --> 00:22:39,140
估值并不足够合理

713
00:22:39,140 --> 00:22:39,539
催化剂

714
00:22:39,539 --> 00:22:40,819
不能只看估值

715
00:22:40,819 --> 00:22:41,380
太傻了

716
00:22:41,380 --> 00:22:42,619
需要像

717
00:22:42,619 --> 00:22:43,500
我不知道

718
00:22:43,500 --> 00:22:45,539
对其航天业务存疑虑

719
00:22:45,539 --> 00:22:46,380
或者说

720
00:22:46,380 --> 00:22:47,900
X过度支出

721
00:22:47,900 --> 00:22:48,579
他们将会

722
00:22:48,579 --> 00:22:50,869
这会让公司回归

723
00:22:50,869 --> 00:22:53,009
就像过去的大催化剂

724
00:22:53,009 --> 00:22:54,130
这非常负面

725
00:22:54,130 --> 00:22:55,549
让所有人极度恐慌

726
00:22:55,549 --> 00:22:57,539
哦我得赶紧抛售股份

727
00:22:57,539 --> 00:22:59,240
何时会出现催化剂

728
00:22:59,240 --> 00:22:59,740
我不知道

729
00:22:59,740 --> 00:23:00,700
可能在未来几周

730
00:23:00,700 --> 00:23:01,240
未来几个月

731
00:23:01,240 --> 00:23:02,099
未来几年

732
00:23:02,099 --> 00:23:03,859
最终会等到催化剂

733
00:23:03,859 --> 00:23:05,619
股价将大幅下跌

734
00:23:05,619 --> 00:23:09,069
但你以为容易

735
00:23:09,069 --> 00:23:10,250
但必须简单

736
00:23:10,250 --> 00:23:11,250
但对抗三败

737
00:23:11,250 --> 00:23:13,409
股票将跌至太空

738
00:23:13,409 --> 00:23:15,229
X短期内市值达十万亿

739
00:23:15,229 --> 00:23:17,528
最终你根本无从知晓

740
00:23:17,528 --> 00:23:19,970
若人们持续买入持有

741
00:23:19,970 --> 00:23:21,390
股价将继续上涨

742
00:23:21,390 --> 00:23:23,730
无论估值多么离谱

743
00:23:23,730 --> 00:23:25,890
这是我给所有人的重大警告

744
00:23:25,890 --> 00:23:27,589
观察万事达和维萨数据

745
00:23:27,589 --> 00:23:29,190
我知道他们追踪总消费

746
00:23:29,190 --> 00:23:32,019
股价上涨意味着他们的数据也会增长

747
00:23:32,019 --> 00:23:37,180
没有任何迹象显示消费者受到负面影响

748
00:23:37,180 --> 00:23:38,869
我们正在查看数据

749
00:23:38,869 --> 00:23:40,109
百分之二十

750
00:23:40,109 --> 00:23:42,430
标普500企业的预期盈利增长

751
00:23:42,430 --> 00:23:46,398
未来七个季度的五百家公司

752
00:23:46,398 --> 00:23:47,939
将近两年时间

753
00:23:47,939 --> 00:23:48,618
四年时间

754
00:23:48,618 --> 00:23:50,019
这简直令人难以置信

755
00:23:50,019 --> 00:23:50,538
是啊

756
00:23:50,538 --> 00:23:52,439
你对它的强劲表现感到意外吗

757
00:23:52,439 --> 00:23:53,439
我确实感到意外

758
00:23:53,439 --> 00:23:54,809
我也一样

759
00:23:54,809 --> 00:23:55,569
我是说

760
00:23:55,569 --> 00:23:58,730
甚至在三月的战争期间

761
00:23:58,859 --> 00:24:01,799
分析师对earnie的预期持续上调

762
00:24:01,799 --> 00:24:03,579
我说他们没收到战争备忘录吗

763
00:24:03,579 --> 00:24:06,130
中东局势存在一些问题

764
00:24:06,130 --> 00:24:07,369
而他们

765
00:24:07,369 --> 00:24:08,730
他们是对的

766
00:24:08,730 --> 00:24:12,029
经济经受住了这场考验

767
00:24:12,029 --> 00:24:15,130
我们的观点之一就是不要

768
00:24:15,130 --> 00:24:15,430
呃

769
00:24:15,430 --> 00:24:15,910
你知道的

770
00:24:15,910 --> 00:24:16,369
忽视

771
00:24:16,369 --> 00:24:19,069
低估

772
00:24:19,069 --> 00:24:20,009
美国经济的韧性

773
00:24:20,009 --> 00:24:21,369
美国经济

774
00:24:21,369 --> 00:24:21,950
美国消费者

775
00:24:21,950 --> 00:24:24,779
我认为这很大程度上归功于我

776
00:24:24,779 --> 00:24:25,180
人们

777
00:24:25,180 --> 00:24:26,000
像我这样的人

778
00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:26,440
没错

779
00:24:26,440 --> 00:24:27,779
这主要是婴儿潮一代

780
00:24:27,779 --> 00:24:28,920
我仍在为生计工作

781
00:24:28,920 --> 00:24:29,259
是的

782
00:24:29,259 --> 00:24:33,299
婴儿潮一代带着八万九千亿美元净资产退休

783
00:24:33,299 --> 00:24:34,619
没错

784
00:24:34,619 --> 00:24:35,920
我们正在谈论惊人的数字

785
00:24:35,920 --> 00:24:36,259
是的

786
00:24:36,259 --> 00:24:38,059
这些是有资产的人

787
00:24:38,059 --> 00:24:41,539
这些投资者从市场中获益最多

788
00:24:41,730 --> 00:24:43,109
当分析盈利时

789
00:24:43,109 --> 00:24:47,029
是否担心我们处于某种盈利泡沫

790
00:24:47,029 --> 00:24:50,299
这些盈利是否可持续且可重复

791
00:24:50,299 --> 00:24:50,740
是的

792
00:24:50,740 --> 00:24:51,519
延续到明年

793
00:24:51,519 --> 00:24:54,138
我宁愿盈利持续上涨

794
00:24:54,138 --> 00:24:56,259
也不愿估值崩盘

795
00:24:56,259 --> 00:24:57,778
这就是我们现在的情况

796
00:24:57,778 --> 00:24:58,578
所以你的意思是

797
00:24:58,578 --> 00:25:01,138
因为这不是估值扩张

798
00:25:01,138 --> 00:25:02,858
因此这更健康

799
00:25:02,858 --> 00:25:03,459
嗯 嗯

800
00:25:03,459 --> 00:25:03,979
你知道的

801
00:25:03,979 --> 00:25:06,098
现在这些倍数正在上涨

802
00:25:06,098 --> 00:25:07,479
它们大约在20到21之间

803
00:25:07,479 --> 00:25:09,058
并且一直卡在那里

804
00:25:09,058 --> 00:25:12,680
真正推动市场上涨的是更好的女性

805
00:25:12,680 --> 00:25:13,900
远超预期

806
00:25:13,900 --> 00:25:15,920
那里的盈利情况

807
00:25:15,920 --> 00:25:18,400
在某个时候你

808
00:25:18,400 --> 00:25:21,140
你需要非常开放地考虑

809
00:25:21,140 --> 00:25:26,200
分析师对盈利的非理性狂热

810
00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:28,349
这种狂热在自我强化

811
00:25:28,349 --> 00:25:29,589
不过不

812
00:25:29,589 --> 00:25:29,869
我是说

813
00:25:29,869 --> 00:25:31,589
现在我一直在关注

814
00:25:31,589 --> 00:25:32,750
数据看起来相当扎实

815
00:25:32,750 --> 00:25:36,299
这是否意味着你认为市场对利率更漠不关心

816
00:25:36,299 --> 00:25:37,460
所以你知道的

817
00:25:37,460 --> 00:25:41,200
你关于六月暴跌的论点基于七月加息

818
00:25:41,200 --> 00:25:42,269
是啊 嗯

819
00:25:42,269 --> 00:25:43,890
无论发生什么

820
00:25:43,890 --> 00:25:47,599
如果通胀更顽固且利率维持更久

821
00:25:47,599 --> 00:25:50,240
你认为市场会更不在意这一点吗

822
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:55,880
或者这会是多大的问题或风险

823
00:25:55,880 --> 00:25:56,339
显然

824
00:25:56,339 --> 00:26:00,440
美联储对市场始终有影响

825
00:26:00,440 --> 00:26:04,869
其主要直接影响是通过估值倍数

826
00:26:04,869 --> 00:26:06,690
如果人们认为美联储会收紧

827
00:26:06,690 --> 00:26:07,630
他们会放松这一点

828
00:26:07,630 --> 00:26:11,849
直接影响是估值滞后

829
00:26:11,849 --> 00:26:16,150
这将影响经济和盈利

830
00:26:16,150 --> 00:26:17,990
我认为在当前情况下

831
00:26:17,990 --> 00:26:22,400
大家都在关注市场自身的基本面

832
00:26:22,400 --> 00:26:24,660
以及市场的韧性

833
00:26:24,660 --> 00:26:25,000
看吧

834
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,679
美联储不久之前

835
00:26:26,679 --> 00:26:27,159
好的

836
00:26:27,159 --> 00:26:28,739
让我解释一个非常重要的点

837
00:26:28,739 --> 00:26:31,118
大家在经济层面都应理解

838
00:26:31,118 --> 00:26:31,378
对吧

839
00:26:31,378 --> 00:26:33,239
因为他们提到八十九万亿美元

840
00:26:33,239 --> 00:26:34,459
婴儿潮一代的财富

841
00:26:34,459 --> 00:26:38,138
然后那位先生说类似的话

842
00:26:38,138 --> 00:26:42,098
那些已投资并持有这类资产的人

843
00:26:42,098 --> 00:26:45,240
几乎会让你的心态变得

844
00:26:45,240 --> 00:26:45,400
是的

845
00:26:45,400 --> 00:26:47,000
但还有很多未投资的人

846
00:26:47,000 --> 00:26:49,220
许多婴儿潮一代自身境况不佳

847
00:26:49,220 --> 00:26:49,460
没错

848
00:26:49,460 --> 00:26:49,720
是的

849
00:26:49,720 --> 00:26:51,799
有很多人做得很好

850
00:26:51,799 --> 00:26:53,480
他们已经还清了房贷

851
00:26:53,480 --> 00:26:55,230
他们还有出租房产

852
00:26:55,230 --> 00:26:57,410
并且在股市里有大量资金

853
00:26:57,410 --> 00:26:58,730
还有大量资金在国债中

854
00:26:58,730 --> 00:27:00,349
但也有相当一部分人

855
00:27:00,349 --> 00:27:01,710
你知道的

856
00:27:01,809 --> 00:27:02,769
勉强度日

857
00:27:02,769 --> 00:27:03,710
他们仍需工作

858
00:27:03,710 --> 00:27:04,990
或者各种情况

859
00:27:04,990 --> 00:27:06,130
听着

860
00:27:07,398 --> 00:27:10,058
谈到经济时永远不要只看

861
00:27:10,058 --> 00:27:10,278
哦

862
00:27:10,278 --> 00:27:12,078
有很多人过得不好

863
00:27:12,078 --> 00:27:14,078
这意味着经济无法良好运转

864
00:27:14,078 --> 00:27:14,898
或者类似的情况

865
00:27:14,898 --> 00:27:18,869
那些没有钱的人

866
00:27:18,869 --> 00:27:22,400
他们其实从不消费

867
00:27:22,400 --> 00:27:24,920
所以一切和以前一样

868
00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:27,319
如果有一个65岁的婴儿潮一代

869
00:27:27,319 --> 00:27:30,430
他住在乡下的一栋房子里

870
00:27:30,430 --> 00:27:32,289
价值五万美元的房子

871
00:27:32,289 --> 00:27:36,099
对吧，他还有

872
00:27:36,099 --> 00:27:36,940
你知道的

873
00:27:36,940 --> 00:27:38,609
名下只有两千元

874
00:27:38,609 --> 00:27:40,890
他根本不会去邮轮旅行

875
00:27:40,890 --> 00:27:42,369
他不会来我的城市

876
00:27:42,369 --> 00:27:42,809
拉斯维加斯

877
00:27:42,809 --> 00:27:44,859
也不会在餐厅花很多钱

878
00:27:44,859 --> 00:27:45,740
或者类似的事情

879
00:27:45,740 --> 00:27:48,400
这根本不是现实

880
00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:51,859
而另一个净资产两百万的婴儿潮一代

881
00:27:51,859 --> 00:27:54,490
正是那个去邮轮旅行的人

882
00:27:54,490 --> 00:27:57,329
来拉斯维加斯消费餐厅

883
00:27:57,329 --> 00:28:00,349
对吧，这样生活

884
00:28:00,349 --> 00:28:04,539
这就是经济的常态

885
00:28:04,539 --> 00:28:05,460
谈到经济

886
00:28:05,460 --> 00:28:06,559
你总是会有很多

887
00:28:06,559 --> 00:28:07,980
你总是会有一大群人

888
00:28:07,980 --> 00:28:09,779
处于贫困中

889
00:28:09,779 --> 00:28:10,799
 barely getting by

890
00:28:10,799 --> 00:28:12,240
这就是现状

891
00:28:12,240 --> 00:28:13,480
不要只看这个群体

892
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:14,200
然后说

893
00:28:14,200 --> 00:28:15,819
整个经济必定糟糕

894
00:28:15,819 --> 00:28:18,920
因为这里有无法消费的群体

895
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:19,319
或者类似的情况

896
00:28:19,319 --> 00:28:21,329
经济并非如此运作

897
00:28:21,329 --> 00:28:22,750
如果拥有中产阶级

898
00:28:22,750 --> 00:28:25,349
那些有一定经济实力的人

899
00:28:25,349 --> 00:28:25,949
没错

900
00:28:25,949 --> 00:28:27,828
如果这些人也进入主流

901
00:28:27,828 --> 00:28:28,648
那就麻烦了

902
00:28:28,648 --> 00:28:30,388
因为这些人正在花钱

903
00:28:30,388 --> 00:28:31,068
在邮轮上

904
00:28:31,068 --> 00:28:31,829
在旅行中

905
00:28:31,829 --> 00:28:34,029
在餐厅和电影院

906
00:28:34,029 --> 00:28:36,470
在商场和商店还有亚马逊

907
00:28:36,470 --> 00:28:37,829
以及所有这类消费

908
00:28:37,829 --> 00:28:40,869
所以债券特雷弗转向另一群体

909
00:28:40,869 --> 00:28:41,849
那就麻烦了

910
00:28:41,849 --> 00:28:43,410
然后你必须明白

911
00:28:43,410 --> 00:28:45,019
有一定数量的

912
00:28:45,019 --> 00:28:45,619
你知道的

913
00:28:45,619 --> 00:28:46,099
我们可以称之为

914
00:28:46,099 --> 00:28:47,839
那些陷入贫困的阶层

915
00:28:47,839 --> 00:28:49,460
能够进入中产阶级

916
00:28:49,460 --> 00:28:51,019
然后从中继续向上流动

917
00:28:51,019 --> 00:28:52,670
你看像我这样的人

918
00:28:52,670 --> 00:28:54,349
我以前属于贫困阶层

919
00:28:54,349 --> 00:28:55,529
难道不是吗

920
00:28:55,529 --> 00:28:56,650
我最初的工作是

921
00:28:56,650 --> 00:29:00,049
在爱因斯坦面包坊洗碗时每小时赚7.5美元

922
00:29:00,049 --> 00:29:00,730
洗碗工作

923
00:29:00,730 --> 00:29:04,490
后来在沃尔格林得到更好职位

924
00:29:04,490 --> 00:29:07,690
在照相部每小时赚8.25美元

925
00:29:07,690 --> 00:29:08,589
就像你知道的

926
00:29:08,589 --> 00:29:10,470
然后我晋升到中产阶级

927
00:29:10,470 --> 00:29:12,299
在Quick Trip找到工作

928
00:29:12,299 --> 00:29:14,400
年薪4万美元并晋升

929
00:29:14,400 --> 00:29:15,960
年薪5万美元

930
00:29:15,960 --> 00:29:16,519
不断积累

931
00:29:16,519 --> 00:29:17,240
持续发展

932
00:29:17,240 --> 00:29:18,400
转眼间

933
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:21,828
从中产阶级再到

934
00:29:21,828 --> 00:29:24,249
几乎接近富裕阶层

935
00:29:24,249 --> 00:29:25,108
类型阶层

936
00:29:25,108 --> 00:29:28,109
然后成为世界顶级1%

937
00:29:28,109 --> 00:29:30,869
然后我成为美国一员

938
00:29:30,869 --> 00:29:31,950
没错继续发展

939
00:29:31,950 --> 00:29:34,390
所以可以从这里到那里再到这里

940
00:29:34,390 --> 00:29:36,019
也可以反向流动

941
00:29:36,019 --> 00:29:39,730
只要很多人过得不错

942
00:29:40,009 --> 00:29:42,250
钱就会持续在经济中流通

943
00:29:42,250 --> 00:29:43,089
这就是

944
00:29:43,089 --> 00:29:43,430
事实如此

945
00:29:43,430 --> 00:29:44,130
好的好的

946
00:29:44,130 --> 00:29:47,089
让我们讨论华尔街的理财策略

947
00:29:47,089 --> 00:29:51,529
因为这两种策略都有动量

948
00:29:51,529 --> 00:29:52,970
首先我们要记住

949
00:29:52,970 --> 00:29:55,440
今天介绍的SpaceX选项

950
00:29:55,440 --> 00:29:58,990
这将进一步加剧当前的波动性

951
00:29:58,990 --> 00:30:02,190
你正确指出了标普平权指数

952
00:30:02,190 --> 00:30:04,638
我相信我们创下了历史新高

953
00:30:04,638 --> 00:30:05,239
再次强调

954
00:30:05,239 --> 00:30:06,598
对于标普平权指数

955
00:30:06,598 --> 00:30:10,829
动量可能出现在不同领域

956
00:30:10,829 --> 00:30:14,809
可能出现在AI交易和半导体行业

957
00:30:14,809 --> 00:30:18,109
猜猜它可能出现在卡特彼勒

958
00:30:18,109 --> 00:30:21,160
也可能出现在爱德华生命科学

959
00:30:21,160 --> 00:30:24,180
比如Monster Beverage或威廉姆斯·索诺玛

960
00:30:24,180 --> 00:30:28,779
这些是我们持有的JT F组合中的四只股票

961
00:30:28,779 --> 00:30:31,160
它们与科技无关

962
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:33,869
与AI故事无关

963
00:30:33,869 --> 00:30:35,269
但每只股票

964
00:30:35,269 --> 00:30:36,069
如果你打算

965
00:30:36,069 --> 00:30:38,400
最终做空某些股票

966
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:41,000
即使听起来残酷

967
00:30:41,000 --> 00:30:42,940
做空卡特彼勒反而更容易

968
00:30:42,940 --> 00:30:44,099
最终会是这样

969
00:30:44,099 --> 00:30:50,170
就像动量围绕AI热潮开始减弱

970
00:30:50,170 --> 00:30:51,309
还有啊

971
00:30:51,309 --> 00:30:55,509
让我们讨论未来几年基建预算削减

972
00:30:55,509 --> 00:30:59,279
卡特彼勒更容易做空，不像SpaceX

973
00:30:59,279 --> 00:31:02,759
因为卡特彼勒必须基于基本面交易

974
00:31:02,759 --> 00:31:04,099
市盈率指标

975
00:31:04,099 --> 00:31:05,359
它不依赖于

976
00:31:05,359 --> 00:31:09,069
比如我们未来要去火星建立数据中心

977
00:31:09,069 --> 00:31:11,029
并发展整个文明

978
00:31:11,029 --> 00:31:12,349
我们将赚取巨额利润

979
00:31:12,349 --> 00:31:14,109
并拥有遍布各地的火箭

980
00:31:14,109 --> 00:31:16,000
这些都是空中楼阁

981
00:31:16,000 --> 00:31:19,210
基于不切实际的幻想

982
00:31:19,210 --> 00:31:19,490
没错

983
00:31:19,490 --> 00:31:24,410
这些基于对未来十年甚至百年的美好愿景

984
00:31:24,410 --> 00:31:25,009
没错

985
00:31:25,009 --> 00:31:28,650
卡特彼勒关注的是今年的收益

986
00:31:28,650 --> 00:31:30,269
以及明年的收益

987
00:31:30,269 --> 00:31:33,380
如果对未来的收益存疑

988
00:31:33,380 --> 00:31:35,539
卡特彼勒股价可能暴跌50%

989
00:31:35,539 --> 00:31:37,220
因此必须理解

990
00:31:37,220 --> 00:31:39,339
如果你想思考

991
00:31:40,799 --> 00:31:45,049
基于数学逻辑并理性分析

992
00:31:45,049 --> 00:31:48,009
当你做空股票时

993
00:31:48,009 --> 00:31:49,450
通常需要做空股票

994
00:31:49,450 --> 00:31:53,288
这才是人们实际考虑的，而非幻想

995
00:31:53,288 --> 00:31:54,888
如果你考虑的股票

996
00:31:54,888 --> 00:31:57,569
受市场情绪和幻想驱动

997
00:31:57,569 --> 00:32:00,349
你需要思考

998
00:32:00,349 --> 00:32:02,390
当希望和梦想何时会被击碎

999
00:32:02,390 --> 00:32:02,890
没错

1000
00:32:02,890 --> 00:32:04,670
何时情绪会转为负面

1001
00:32:04,670 --> 00:32:06,630
那就是你可以做空这些股票的时机

1002
00:32:06,630 --> 00:32:07,450
这是高层次分析

1003
00:32:07,450 --> 00:32:07,910
游戏人

1004
00:32:07,910 --> 00:32:09,549
你必须有丰富的市场经验

1005
00:32:09,549 --> 00:32:11,900
这很艰难，但我战胜了巨龙

1006
00:32:11,900 --> 00:32:13,359
你知道我是用teso做到的

1007
00:32:13,359 --> 00:32:14,279
我是用沃尔玛做到的

1008
00:32:14,279 --> 00:32:15,119
我是用Costco做到的

1009
00:32:15,119 --> 00:32:16,509
我是用Chipotle做到的

1010
00:32:16,509 --> 00:32:18,390
Duolingo简直轻松搞定

1011
00:32:18,390 --> 00:32:19,029
柠檬榨汁

1012
00:32:19,029 --> 00:32:19,970
我们做对了

1013
00:32:19,970 --> 00:32:21,089
但它是

1014
00:32:21,089 --> 00:32:23,289
做空股票很难

1015
00:32:23,289 --> 00:32:25,954
我得说你知道必须

1016
00:32:26,480 --> 00:32:29,279
你得把握时机，精准拿捏时机

1017
00:32:29,279 --> 00:32:30,500
这很困难

1018
00:32:30,500 --> 00:32:32,519
我现在没什么

1019
00:32:32,519 --> 00:32:33,420
袖中无牌

1020
00:32:33,420 --> 00:32:34,019
就我而言

1021
00:32:34,019 --> 00:32:35,130
做空任何股票

1022
00:32:35,130 --> 00:32:37,970
总会有时机再次做空某些股票

1023
00:32:37,970 --> 00:32:39,170
但现在还不是

1024
00:32:39,170 --> 00:32:41,529
总会有时候和某些股票

1025
00:32:41,529 --> 00:32:43,039
我会反向操作

1026
00:32:43,039 --> 00:32:44,279
但现在还不是

1027
00:32:44,279 --> 00:32:45,579
我们的名字拼成五

1028
00:32:45,579 --> 00:32:47,660
两位凯和我认为这就是条件

1029
00:32:47,660 --> 00:32:50,519
我认为这就是今日市场的故事

1030
00:32:50,519 --> 00:32:55,369
我认为资本正在撤离能源

1031
00:32:55,369 --> 00:32:58,710
资本正从防御性布局撤离

1032
00:32:58,710 --> 00:33:01,619
因为收益率4.5%

1033
00:33:01,619 --> 00:33:04,259
六连涨始于六月初

1034
00:33:04,259 --> 00:33:06,720
这需要防御性布局

1035
00:33:06,720 --> 00:33:08,660
资本现在放松了

1036
00:33:08,660 --> 00:33:11,859
并流向不同领域

1037
00:33:11,859 --> 00:33:14,099
所有都有动量是共同点

1038
00:33:14,099 --> 00:33:14,380
好的

1039
00:33:14,380 --> 00:33:16,059
今天显然出现了一些回调

1040
00:33:16,059 --> 00:33:17,740
标普和纳斯达克市场

1041
00:33:17,740 --> 00:33:18,759
我要转到你这边

1042
00:33:18,759 --> 00:33:19,400
现在你看

1043
00:33:19,400 --> 00:33:20,579
市场被支撑住了

1044
00:33:20,579 --> 00:33:23,000
显然除了今天靠三足鼎立

1045
00:33:23,000 --> 00:33:25,250
其中一个支撑点或腿

1046
00:33:25,250 --> 00:33:26,250
我说的是SpaceX

1047
00:33:26,250 --> 00:33:27,609
对其热情高涨

1048
00:33:27,609 --> 00:33:30,170
乔刚刚提到交易选项今天开始交易

1049
00:33:30,170 --> 00:33:32,190
另外我们看到SpaceX已超越

1050
00:33:32,190 --> 00:33:33,569
亚马逊和市值

1051
00:33:33,569 --> 00:33:36,869
这对市场整体上涨行情有何更广泛影响

1052
00:33:36,869 --> 00:33:39,089
我认为SpaceX刚刚突破

1053
00:33:39,089 --> 00:33:40,990
你知道这个我真是蠢了

1054
00:33:40,990 --> 00:33:41,759
就是

1055
00:33:43,079 --> 00:33:45,400
只能这么说像个傻瓜

1056
00:33:45,400 --> 00:33:48,759
但这是否意味着SpaceX明天或下周会下跌

1057
00:33:48,759 --> 00:33:49,279
或者下个月

1058
00:33:49,279 --> 00:33:50,099
不

1059
00:33:50,099 --> 00:33:50,900
可能是个好消息

1060
00:33:50,900 --> 00:33:52,059
可能超越英伟达

1061
00:33:52,059 --> 00:33:53,200
谁知道呢

1062
00:33:53,200 --> 00:33:53,839
所需的一切

1063
00:33:53,839 --> 00:33:54,259
只是更多

1064
00:33:54,259 --> 00:33:54,539
人们常说

1065
00:33:54,539 --> 00:33:55,900
我打算买入这些股票

1066
00:33:55,900 --> 00:33:58,640
大家都要买入并形成动量

1067
00:33:58,640 --> 00:33:59,150
比如

1068
00:33:59,150 --> 00:33:59,809
你知道的

1069
00:33:59,809 --> 00:34:01,069
这有意义吗

1070
00:34:01,069 --> 00:34:02,369
不并不

1071
00:34:02,369 --> 00:34:04,869
但确实存在

1072
00:34:04,869 --> 00:34:09,650
对SpaceX的消化存在一点潜在担忧

1073
00:34:09,650 --> 00:34:10,829
不仅因规模庞大

1074
00:34:10,829 --> 00:34:16,889
还因投资者需要从其他地方为SpaceX持仓融资

1075
00:34:16,889 --> 00:34:19,190
那么资金来源会是哪里

1076
00:34:19,190 --> 00:34:23,469
整个市场将如何调整看法

1077
00:34:23,469 --> 00:34:25,670
就未来可能的发展而言

1078
00:34:25,670 --> 00:34:28,269
我认为这不仅仅是关于SpaceX

1079
00:34:28,269 --> 00:34:28,510
弗兰克

1080
00:34:28,510 --> 00:34:29,739
它是第一

1081
00:34:29,739 --> 00:34:32,719
我们看到科技股略有回调

1082
00:34:32,719 --> 00:34:36,599
这可能来自为SpaceX持仓融资

1083
00:34:36,599 --> 00:34:38,599
你不会削减医疗保健持仓

1084
00:34:38,599 --> 00:34:39,300
例如

1085
00:34:39,300 --> 00:34:41,559
很可能用于支持SpaceX持仓

1086
00:34:41,559 --> 00:34:42,400
但第二点

1087
00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,139
我认为存在潜在趋势

1088
00:34:44,139 --> 00:34:48,719
我们预计今年将有多家大型IPO

1089
00:34:48,719 --> 00:34:50,259
并延续至2027年

1090
00:34:50,259 --> 00:34:51,478
这将彻底清理市场

1091
00:34:51,478 --> 00:34:54,730
可以说迎来一波IPO和M&A潮

1092
00:34:54,730 --> 00:34:58,610
这是私募市场投资者期待已久的活动

1093
00:34:58,610 --> 00:35:01,780
市场已消化了

1094
00:35:01,780 --> 00:35:03,880
消化了这一巨额IPO

1095
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:05,699
我们看到

1096
00:35:05,699 --> 00:35:08,519
其他领域出现相关交易波动

1097
00:35:08,519 --> 00:35:10,400
并存在市场扩散的潜在可能

1098
00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,360
我认为这确实反映了一个健康的事实

1099
00:35:13,360 --> 00:35:16,849
或许我们正在回归年初那几个月的情况

1100
00:35:16,849 --> 00:35:18,070
共同点在于

1101
00:35:18,070 --> 00:35:18,889
我知道乔

1102
00:35:18,889 --> 00:35:19,909
提到其势头

1103
00:35:19,909 --> 00:35:21,570
我实际认为是利率环境

1104
00:35:21,570 --> 00:35:26,300
我认为我们看到的逐渐放松政策力度

1105
00:35:26,300 --> 00:35:28,420
上周更温和的CPI数据

1106
00:35:28,420 --> 00:35:31,260
我认为这就是市场正在消化的过程

1107
00:35:31,260 --> 00:35:32,000
更低的利率

1108
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:34,099
收益率压力有所缓解

1109
00:35:34,099 --> 00:35:37,280
最重要的是中东局势迅速变化

1110
00:35:37,280 --> 00:35:40,099
你提到CPI报告在帮助市场

1111
00:35:40,099 --> 00:35:41,739
这是三年来最高读数

1112
00:35:41,739 --> 00:35:42,719
4.2%核心指标

1113
00:35:42,719 --> 00:35:42,960
嗯

1114
00:35:42,960 --> 00:35:43,920
高于美联储目标

1115
00:35:43,920 --> 00:35:45,199
这难道不是市场风险吗

1116
00:35:45,199 --> 00:35:46,420
数据如此顽固

1117
00:35:46,420 --> 00:35:46,639
嗯

1118
00:35:46,639 --> 00:35:48,260
我认为CPI报告

1119
00:35:48,260 --> 00:35:51,260
实际符合甚至略软于核心预期

1120
00:35:51,260 --> 00:35:53,559
服务业出现显著改善

1121
00:35:53,559 --> 00:35:54,340
超级核心指标

1122
00:35:54,340 --> 00:35:55,380
住房成本出现回落

1123
00:35:55,380 --> 00:35:57,059
保险和服装价格下降

1124
00:35:57,059 --> 00:35:57,940
家居用品价格走低

1125
00:35:57,940 --> 00:36:01,820
我们此前担忧的通胀领域

1126
00:36:01,820 --> 00:36:03,349
在下半年

1127
00:36:03,349 --> 00:36:06,409
即将进入美联储会议

1128
00:36:06,409 --> 00:36:10,579
现在必须考虑能源价格

1129
00:36:10,579 --> 00:36:11,719
可能压力减轻

1130
00:36:11,719 --> 00:36:15,940
或至少大幅上涨的能源价格风险已排除

1131
00:36:15,940 --> 00:36:17,489
至少未来60天

1132
00:36:17,489 --> 00:36:20,469
这正是债券市场获得信心的原因

1133
00:36:20,469 --> 00:36:21,420
带来些许安慰

1134
00:36:21,420 --> 00:36:25,659
这将推动市场多元化发展

1135
00:36:25,659 --> 00:36:25,980
你知道的

1136
00:36:25,980 --> 00:36:27,059
你在提到凯文·沃什

1137
00:36:27,059 --> 00:36:28,320
显然这是他的首次会议

1138
00:36:29,360 --> 00:36:30,320
我们之前展示过图表

1139
00:36:30,320 --> 00:36:30,960
如果你观察

1140
00:36:30,960 --> 00:36:31,980
会有关键时刻

1141
00:36:31,980 --> 00:36:32,400
你知道的

1142
00:36:32,400 --> 00:36:32,599
让我们

1143
00:36:32,599 --> 00:36:33,719
让我们花点时间

1144
00:36:33,719 --> 00:36:36,650
下次何时做空市场

1145
00:36:36,650 --> 00:36:38,929
假设讨论做空整个市场

1146
00:36:38,929 --> 00:36:40,289
队列正确

1147
00:36:40,289 --> 00:36:40,889
Sq

1148
00:36:40,889 --> 00:36:41,090
Q

1149
00:36:41,090 --> 00:36:43,949
Q 立刻获胜

1150
00:36:44,949 --> 00:36:46,909
我觉得我已经搞清楚了

1151
00:36:46,909 --> 00:36:47,269
好的

1152
00:36:47,269 --> 00:36:48,318
听着

1153
00:36:48,398 --> 00:36:51,639
接下来要反向市场操作的时机是

1154
00:36:51,639 --> 00:36:59,590
当我们开始对科技巨头未来的支出产生真正担忧时

1155
00:36:59,590 --> 00:37:02,079
我们将迎来一次增长恐慌

1156
00:37:02,079 --> 00:37:04,280
这样一来

1157
00:37:04,280 --> 00:37:07,599
这些芯片股将会大幅下跌

1158
00:37:07,599 --> 00:37:08,730
这何时会发生

1159
00:37:08,730 --> 00:37:09,530
我们得拭目以待

1160
00:37:09,530 --> 00:37:10,889
必须观察整个局势的发展

1161
00:37:10,889 --> 00:37:11,610
可能三个月后

1162
00:37:11,610 --> 00:37:12,030
六个月后

1163
00:37:12,030 --> 00:37:12,849
九个月或十二个月

1164
00:37:12,849 --> 00:37:15,679
最终会在那时发生

1165
00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:17,300
当我们到达那个时刻

1166
00:37:17,300 --> 00:37:20,568
这些股票已经出现暴涨暴跌

1167
00:37:20,568 --> 00:37:24,309
它们将成为关键指标，一旦下跌

1168
00:37:24,309 --> 00:37:25,889
将会非常惨烈

1169
00:37:25,889 --> 00:37:30,909
资金未必会立即涌入大额支出企业

1170
00:37:30,909 --> 00:37:31,750
亚马逊

1171
00:37:31,750 --> 00:37:32,269
微软

1172
00:37:32,269 --> 00:37:33,510
谷歌等股票

1173
00:37:33,510 --> 00:37:37,980
因为这些公司营收增长将引发担忧

1174
00:37:37,980 --> 00:37:41,869
短期内市场将面临严峻考验

1175
00:37:41,869 --> 00:37:43,269
届时

1176
00:37:43,269 --> 00:37:43,849
你知道的

1177
00:37:43,849 --> 00:37:45,429
所有芯片股都会暴跌

1178
00:37:45,429 --> 00:37:47,570
人们将不敢再投资科技巨头

1179
00:37:47,570 --> 00:37:50,710
因为增长可能不如预期

1180
00:37:50,710 --> 00:37:54,539
而这些公司体量庞大

1181
00:37:54,539 --> 00:37:56,150
现在情况会是

1182
00:37:56,389 --> 00:37:58,610
指数将非常难看

1183
00:37:58,610 --> 00:37:59,550
非常糟糕

1184
00:37:59,550 --> 00:38:02,650
这将是下一个重大

1185
00:38:02,650 --> 00:38:06,539
我认为这是对冲市场的盈利机会

1186
00:38:06,539 --> 00:38:09,480
为你的投资组合对冲市场风险

1187
00:38:09,480 --> 00:38:13,730
但我觉得现在还不是时候

1188
00:38:13,730 --> 00:38:13,889
没错

1189
00:38:13,889 --> 00:38:15,590
会有那么一刻

1190
00:38:15,590 --> 00:38:15,929
好的

1191
00:38:15,929 --> 00:38:17,690
现在正是介入时机

1192
00:38:17,690 --> 00:38:19,829
但目前还不是时候

1193
00:38:22,480 --> 00:38:23,659
今年年底

1194
00:38:23,659 --> 00:38:25,079
或许明年

1195
00:38:25,079 --> 00:38:28,110
也许我会持续更新大家

1196
00:38:28,110 --> 00:38:29,550
等到时机到来

1197
00:38:29,550 --> 00:38:30,349
但现在还不是时候

1198
00:38:30,349 --> 00:38:31,389
不 不是为了我

1199
00:38:31,389 --> 00:38:33,190
现在风险与回报并不匹配

1200
00:38:33,190 --> 00:38:34,108
至少目前正确

1201
00:38:34,108 --> 00:38:35,429
但终会有一个时刻

1202
00:38:35,429 --> 00:38:36,509
它终会出现

1203
00:38:36,509 --> 00:38:36,869
好的

1204
00:38:36,869 --> 00:38:37,228
好的

1205
00:38:37,228 --> 00:38:38,369
各位感谢你们一如既往的加入

1206
00:38:38,369 --> 00:38:39,349
非常感谢你们的到来

1207
00:38:39,349 --> 00:38:40,769
感谢订阅我们的频道

1208
00:38:40,769 --> 00:38:45,090
另外我们即将关闭私密群组对新成员的开放

1209
00:38:45,090 --> 00:38:48,250
你们还有十天时间申请加入

1210
00:38:48,250 --> 00:38:49,929
详情请查看下方置顶评论

1211
00:38:49,929 --> 00:38:51,949
让我们在关闭前将你加入群组

1212
00:38:51,949 --> 00:38:54,070
我们将寄送专属会员卡到你家

1213
00:38:54,070 --> 00:38:54,889
当你加入我们后

1214
00:38:54,889 --> 00:38:57,510
私密群组会发送你千倍卡

1215
00:38:57,510 --> 00:38:58,730
这是2025版

1216
00:38:58,730 --> 00:39:00,039
我们将寄送2026版

1217
00:39:00,039 --> 00:39:01,880
如果你选择终身加入

1218
00:39:01,880 --> 00:39:04,340
我们将赠送黑卡

1219
00:39:04,340 --> 00:39:05,800
终身会员卡

1220
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:08,369
并将寄送精美礼盒

1221
00:39:08,369 --> 00:39:13,789
里面包含我们为新成员准备的趣味物品

1222
00:39:13,789 --> 00:39:14,769
充满爱意

1223
00:39:14,769 --> 00:39:17,199
不久再聊 祝你愉快

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