【Seeking Alpha】YouTube值4900亿？谷歌最强王牌拆解

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过去表现并不代表未来结果

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除非另有说明，内容仅作信息参考用途

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参与视频的所有个人均为第三方，包括专业投资者和散户投资者

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除非另有说明

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所表达的观点或意见未必反映Seeking Alpha整体立场

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共享内容的准确性和完整性无法保证

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Seeking Alpha未考虑您的投资目标或财务状况

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且不提供个性化投资建议

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Seeking Alpha并非持牌证券经纪商

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经纪商

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U

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S

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投资顾问或投资银行

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嘿

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大家好

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我是Nicole

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Benjamin，这里是Seeking Alpha的主持人

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为您带来我们新系列《Portfolio Pulse》的又一期节目

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正如名称所示

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我们将持续关注

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当前市场所有重大金融动态

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本期节目

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我有幸邀请到了IG领军人物

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丹尼尔

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琼斯

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他将协助我们

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深入探讨YouTube相关动态

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谷歌母公司Alphabet

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所有相关事宜

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那么不啰嗦了

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丹尼尔

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非常感谢您今天加入我们

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是的

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非常感谢邀请我

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太棒了

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嗯

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丹尼尔

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我想问你自2014年起就在Seeking Alpha活跃

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请分享你进入金融领域的经历

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你的背景、投资理念

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或其他相关内容

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让我们的观众感兴趣的内容

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当然，我本质上是价值投资者

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非常遵循

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在...的道路上

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呃

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在理念上追随沃伦·巴菲特

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我的投资哲学中带有一定逆向思维倾向

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嗯

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这很有趣

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所以当我进入大学时

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我原本计划学习物理

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那就是我想要做的

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但那是二十八年的事

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我们都清楚二十八年发生了什么

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嗯

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你知道经济危机开始了

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嗯

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当时我仅有的一点积蓄

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被存入了爱德华琼斯账户

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我父母也在那里存了一些钱

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我们对投资一窍不通

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当时我们恰好在底部抛售

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这简直是史上最糟糕的决定

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不幸的是

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这让我们经济上很痛苦

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但这让我对市场产生了兴趣

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嗯，我开始问自己

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如果我们能理解天上的星辰

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为何不能理解自身经济运作

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这培养了我对投资的终身热情

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这就是我现在做的事

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嗯

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我们开始吧

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你在Seeking Alpha上写过文章

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YouTube是一个独立存在的实体

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所以我的第一个问题

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我想问

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你计算过

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YouTube的独立价值可能高达四百九十亿美元

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这是一笔巨款

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所以为什么我也会这样

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所以为什么

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为什么像YouTube这样的资产

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需要被特别考虑

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而不是只看Alphabet的总市值

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是的

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绝对正确

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对于大型 conglomerate 而言

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说实话

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Alphabet 不再只是搜索引擎

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很久以前就不再是了，它已成为科技 conglomerate

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必须这样做

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需部分拆分分析

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以理解公司各部分的独立估值

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这是因为市场常施加 conglomerate 折扣

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换句话说

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尤其是当业务部门运营差异极大时

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而YouTube确实与搜索引擎大不相同

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业务的一部分

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来自云端

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业务的一部分

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所有这些啊

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因此单独评估每个业务板块有助于明确其内在价值

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就是

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这突显了分拆后可能释放的潜在价值

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所以如果

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如果公司出于某种原因不再想要YouTube

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或者我们认为它作为独立实体更好

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嗯

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这有助于你

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你知道的

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更好地理解

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了解整个市场的价值

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嗯

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这也帮助投资者理解监管风险

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如今大型科技公司面临更大的被拆分风险

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或面临更严格的限制，远超以往

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无论你对

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这是否合理与否

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这既带来风险也创造机会

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通过理解YouTube作为独立公司的形态

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能更好地理解

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我是否为Alphabet支付了合理价格

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整体而言

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YouTube在美国电视市场的份额为10%

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目前6.6%

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这如何为Alphabet带来竞争优势

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这些公司

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你知道的

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制作自己的节目

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是的

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你知道的

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绝对如此

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当你真正思考YouTube的本质时

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它并非传统内容提供商

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它是全球最大的内容市场

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以Netflix为例

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他们掌控全部创意产出

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决定制作哪些节目以及如何播出

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何时播出

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承担所有相关预算

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这带来显著增长潜力

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但也伴随执行风险

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而YouTube不具备这些

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因为他们主要采用创作者驱动的内容模式

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因此他们无需承担制作成本

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实际制作成本由YouTuber自行承担

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他们必须承担风险

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归根结底，YouTube需要做的

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本质上是优化广告和订阅体验

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然后相应奖励这些贡献者

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这最终降低了公司的风险并惠及股东

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同时提升了平台的扩展性

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目前YouTube旗下服务拥有3.25亿付费订阅

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现在

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考虑到这一点

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哪些绿色信号表明这种增长正在转化

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你知道的

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将免费用户转化为稳定的现金流

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是的

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完全正确

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嗯

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我认为关键的绿色信号是持续投资于

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呃

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新或略有不同的订阅产品

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当你看到YouTube Premium时

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看到YouTube在营销订阅上的投入

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看到YouTube投资直播电视

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这类业务

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呃

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这绝对是绿色信号

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因为现有业务已证明成功

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这意味着更高的用户粘性

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如果你有一个订阅

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通过YouTube

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这很棒

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你对他们来说是重要客户

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但如果你有三个订阅

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尤其是扩展到创作者提供的订阅

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当扩展到五到十个订阅时

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你更可能留在平台

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这意味着收入

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嗯

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预测变得更简单

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公司风险降低

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这对我来说是最大的

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你知道的

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绿色信号现在

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丹尼尔

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我想深入探讨

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你说的粘性

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这确实是个好现象

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但就YouTube而言

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你知道的

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进军直播电视

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你的NFL、奥斯卡赛事

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这类业务

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你看到这个了吗

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或许只是抢夺市场份额本身

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或者这是更防御性的策略

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说实话

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两者都有 所以

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在进攻性方面

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当你观察电视行业当前的情况

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总之

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你知道的

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有线电视正在消亡

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人们正在取消有线电视套餐

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越来越多地转向流媒体服务等

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嗯

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公司视此为抓住市场份额的机会

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这将是真正的一次性

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从传统有线巨头转向内容消费新时代

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但这也是防御性的 因为现在流媒体领域

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正在投资直播体育赛事

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这类内容

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迪士尼在做

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Netflix也在做

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这对YouTube构成威胁

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如果内容不够优质

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人们可能转向Netflix

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或迪士尼

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也在快速增长

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所以他们也需防御

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为保持相关性 降低用户粘性流失风险

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嗯 关于

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作为他们的资产

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现在

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Alphabet年收入突破四百亿美元

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同时投入1850亿美元建设AI基建

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基于此

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是否有具体指标如EBITDA利润率

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或YouTube年600亿美元营收规模

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能反映公司长期健康状况

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是的

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首先

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我想说

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云计算市场机会确实巨大

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高盛预测

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从几年前的五百亿美元规模

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到2030年全球行业收入达两万亿美元

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但

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所以

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00:10:41,539 --> 00:10:41,659
所以

246
00:10:41,659 --> 00:10:43,320
这就是为何重投此领域

247
00:10:43,320 --> 00:10:44,859
所以他们在大力投入

248
00:10:44,859 --> 00:10:48,558
但就Alphabet本身而言

249
00:10:48,558 --> 00:10:52,980
我认为最重要的指标是观察经营现金流

250
00:10:52,980 --> 00:10:56,059
在剔除营运资本变动后

251
00:10:56,059 --> 00:11:02,320
原因在于这能反映企业核心健康状况

252
00:11:02,320 --> 00:11:05,980
这也是公司用以支付资本支出的资金

253
00:11:05,980 --> 00:11:06,879
这就是它支付

254
00:11:06,879 --> 00:11:07,720
股息

255
00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:08,320
你知道的

256
00:11:08,320 --> 00:11:10,779
用于股票回购

257
00:11:11,179 --> 00:11:11,580
你知道的

258
00:11:11,580 --> 00:11:12,679
所有这些

259
00:11:12,679 --> 00:11:14,059
都来自这个

260
00:11:14,059 --> 00:11:14,700
所以

261
00:11:14,700 --> 00:11:15,360
嗯

262
00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:19,559
事实上，Alphabet历来是现金奶牛

263
00:11:19,559 --> 00:11:21,899
它历史上增长相当迅速

264
00:11:21,899 --> 00:11:25,350
通过观察现金流状况

265
00:11:25,350 --> 00:11:27,049
可以更好地理解

266
00:11:27,049 --> 00:11:27,269
好的

267
00:11:27,269 --> 00:11:29,549
这是未来增长的动力

268
00:11:29,549 --> 00:11:33,318
同时也能维持稳定性

269
00:11:33,839 --> 00:11:35,099
这合乎逻辑

270
00:11:35,099 --> 00:11:35,860
现在

271
00:11:35,860 --> 00:11:37,720
我最后一个问题

272
00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:38,179
你知道的

273
00:11:38,179 --> 00:11:40,799
剥离成功资产

274
00:11:40,799 --> 00:11:41,279
你知道的

275
00:11:41,279 --> 00:11:43,940
只是提升股价

276
00:11:43,940 --> 00:11:48,940
你是否更倾向于持有YouTube

277
00:11:48,940 --> 00:11:52,399
还是喜欢它作为公司的一部分

278
00:11:52,399 --> 00:11:54,240
并且被整合其中

279
00:11:54,240 --> 00:11:59,000
公司自然有某些益处

280
00:11:59,000 --> 00:12:04,279
最终YouTube留在公司更好

281
00:12:04,279 --> 00:12:06,960
Alphabet是数字生态系统

282
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:12,639
能在业务不同部分间交叉销售

283
00:12:12,639 --> 00:12:16,220
这里也有效率提升机会

284
00:12:16,220 --> 00:12:20,159
但从纯粹估值角度看

285
00:12:20,159 --> 00:12:24,299
公司可能更适合剥离YouTube

286
00:12:24,299 --> 00:12:28,519
正如我之前提到的市场情况

287
00:12:28,519 --> 00:12:30,240
通常压低 conglomerate 估值

288
00:12:30,240 --> 00:12:34,019
因为它们常被认为存在低效

289
00:12:34,019 --> 00:12:35,690
从运营角度看

290
00:12:35,690 --> 00:12:38,610
管理层有不同激励机制

291
00:12:38,610 --> 00:12:45,600
可能有一个管理团队真正以YouTube最佳利益为核心

292
00:12:45,600 --> 00:12:49,779
但如果Alphabet致力于发展云业务

293
00:12:49,779 --> 00:12:51,740
即使意味着忽视

294
00:12:51,740 --> 00:12:54,700
YouTube可能的巨大增长潜力

295
00:12:54,700 --> 00:12:56,870
市场存在这种折扣

296
00:12:56,870 --> 00:12:59,009
你知道的

297
00:12:59,009 --> 00:13:03,440
当公司剥离并拥有优秀管理团队时

298
00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:04,740
它们能够说不

299
00:13:04,740 --> 00:13:05,100
不不

300
00:13:05,100 --> 00:13:06,259
这是我们公司的业务

301
00:13:06,259 --> 00:13:08,379
我们整个业务就是发展YouTube

302
00:13:08,379 --> 00:13:09,318
例如

303
00:13:09,318 --> 00:13:09,918
嗯

304
00:13:09,918 --> 00:13:11,038
而且你知道的

305
00:13:11,038 --> 00:13:12,918
通常市场会奖励这种行为

306
00:13:12,918 --> 00:13:15,379
以多倍市盈率增长的形式

307
00:13:15,379 --> 00:13:18,798
这可以在分拆时立即释放价值

308
00:13:18,798 --> 00:13:20,859
所以如果价格合适的话

309
00:13:20,859 --> 00:13:22,578
再说这又回到整体

310
00:13:22,578 --> 00:13:24,309
你知道我是价值投资者

311
00:13:24,309 --> 00:13:24,710
嗯

312
00:13:24,710 --> 00:13:27,009
你知道我之前说过的话

313
00:13:27,009 --> 00:13:28,589
如果价格合适

314
00:13:28,589 --> 00:13:31,048
我更希望你们成为独立公司

315
00:13:31,048 --> 00:13:33,749
和那四百九十亿美元的估值

316
00:13:33,749 --> 00:13:36,980
就像我文章里提到的高端估值

317
00:13:36,980 --> 00:13:38,720
这不会令人意外

318
00:13:38,720 --> 00:13:41,659
如果公司最终以这个价格分拆

319
00:13:41,659 --> 00:13:42,940
其价值可能超过这个数字

320
00:13:42,940 --> 00:13:46,840
嗯 我觉得这就是合理范围的上限

321
00:13:46,840 --> 00:13:47,899
没有市场

322
00:13:47,899 --> 00:13:51,100
可能不会高估公司价值

323
00:13:51,100 --> 00:13:52,500
我们就说到这里

324
00:13:52,500 --> 00:13:53,019
丹尼尔

325
00:13:53,019 --> 00:13:55,629
非常感谢你今天加入我们

326
00:13:55,629 --> 00:13:57,070
家人们

327
00:13:57,070 --> 00:13:58,669
请继续

328
00:13:58,669 --> 00:14:01,570
在Seeking Alpha上点击丹尼尔的页面关注

329
00:14:01,570 --> 00:14:03,190
查看原油价值洞察

330
00:14:03,190 --> 00:14:05,404
看看这是否适合你的投资组合

331
00:14:05,440 --> 00:14:07,279
也看看Alphabet

332
00:14:07,279 --> 00:14:08,679
看看YouTube

333
00:14:08,679 --> 00:14:11,080
看看这些估值在告诉你什么

334
00:14:11,080 --> 00:14:12,860
如果这适合你的投资组合

335
00:14:12,860 --> 00:14:16,200
我们下次再见，收看Portfolio Pol

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