手机大厂为何腰斩

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很多兄弟还想让我评论一下某米啊

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关于手机大厂的这个故事的

3
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从去年年初我也讲过啊

4
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当时股价在55啊

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甚至一度冲到60的时候

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我说肯定会腰斩

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后来呢都被投诉了啊

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很多视频都被下架了

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但是呢很多人认为说是因为我做生意啊

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包括做手机啊

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做家电给他重合啊

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被他给干败了

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完全不是

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因为我知道很多事情要符合事物的规律

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正是因为我做了很多年手机

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做了很多年家电

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就我知道这个行业真的没有你想象的那么容易

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一定要有敬畏心

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我当时说的三个理由是不是现在全部兑现了

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第一个手机这个行业最后一定是生死存亡

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如果苹果一降价

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华为一降价

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无论是小米VIVOOPPO都很难受

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今年是不是兑现了

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再加上内存直接翻倍的涨

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红米直接就撑不住

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那小米的手机你也知道

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那硬性提价在这里

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结果就是销量的下滑

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全球占有率下降

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那第二个呢当时提到家电

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我家电这个行业啊竞争非常惨烈

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是一个非常非常差的商业模式

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咱不用说做空调

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格力美的

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TCL海信这些老牌的大件的厂家

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实力极为雄厚

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而且关键这些厂家呢海外占比都在一半以上

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他有足够多的战斗力和现金流支撑它

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给小米硬扛

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小米呢自己建厂建厂其实也是个错题

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因为你一旦建了厂过去

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无论是这个TCL啊

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还是这个其他的给他贴牌的这些公司

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立马就会翻脸

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你看今年是不是这个状态

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那T4LL这些老牌工厂

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长虹这些老牌工厂肯定不会给小米清楚资源

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因为大家都知道家电这个行业主要靠周转率

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就靠账期

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因为我做了16年家电啊

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你看看哈尔

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包括美帝的账期

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格力档期都1000多亿

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就是完全是可以忽略下毛利啊

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然后靠周转率

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然后再靠给这些下游的客户

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上游的供应商啊

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放贷就收承兑嘛

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然后赚了几个点的金融资产

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其实这些品牌完全可以不要利润

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把毛利全打出去

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光靠金融就会维持到五个点走多利润

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实际上现在他们都这么干的

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但是一旦小米实现工厂

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你反而原材料很难拿档期

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下游的话对吧

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那些代理商资金量也有限

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实际上你的资金防护墙会受到极大的冲击

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而且因为你抛弃了啊

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这些TCL包括韩红呢

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他们会过来打低价啊

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包括其他的

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包括格力啊

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美帝也会过来打低价

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实际上是不是和我想的一模一样

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对不对

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第三个关于汽车是不是负资产的问题

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这个我从开始讲这个话题的时候

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很多人就在抨击我

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说怎么可能是汽车负资产呢

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一定是正资产呀

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那完全是因为能够给手机带来提价呀

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完全是能够带来这个啊

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这个手机的口碑的提升呀

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今年大家还会说这句话吗

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什么叫品牌心智呢

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就是像这种成熟行业

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手机汽车家电这种行业

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你做什么

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提起这个品牌来

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想要你的牌子

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提起来

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这个牌子强行在你的品类

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这才是真正的心智

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而不是说一想起来啊

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手机大厂什么都干

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没有一个做好的

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当时我说的

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我说苹果花了10亿美金

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最后还是放弃造车

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很多人认为这是苹果的能力不强

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各位这是能力不强吧

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是人家知道这种水太深了

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汽车这个行业建立现实太难了

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汽车原则上比手机还要难做

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因为手机你是有软件收费

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你的商业模式哈比这个汽车好多了

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这就是我们从事16年手机家电汽车

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汽车没有从事过

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买了好多台车体验之后的一个结果

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就是这个行业一定要有敬畏心

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这个行业你赚什么钱

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你要想明白啊

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你是赚这个全球化的钱还是赚啊

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美帝啊

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格力啊

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海尔这种金融的钱

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周转率的钱是吧

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还是做这个苏泊尔

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包括这些小家电

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九阳之类的啊

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完全靠零售的钱

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你要想好对吧

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你不能说我什么都赚

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那不现实的

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我当时还讲了一个关于组织的问题啊

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我说啊手艺大厂团队没什么能力啊

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靠一个老板在那里啊

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就是叫什么双拳难敌四手啊

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是不是这个是吧

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饿虎难敌群狼啊

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是不是今年也应验了是吧

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首先是这个啊红米的这个采购啊

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内存这一块不给力

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导致红米全盘啊全盘这个下滑

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然后又遇到了这个啊高管离失呀

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大股东啊

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自家股份呐

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减持呀

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一系列的

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对不对

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让这个一把手呢坐立呢啊频繁出镜啊

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前先是这个学这个乔布斯啊

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后来学这个黄仁勋啊

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现在的话又到街头去吃热面

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被人家小女孩给嘲笑了

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你看看所有的指向只有一条哈

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各位这个市场啊

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你怎么来的哈

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你怎么回去啊

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就像这个曾经的家电大佬

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这个叫什么来着

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这个出来混总是要还的哈

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哈今天是不是应验了

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我们呢虽然说是没有成立啊

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像手机大厂这么强的品牌

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但是呢这公司虽小

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麻雀俱全啊

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大厂经历的东西我们都经历过

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只是没有他这个能力

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但是我们也知道

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如果你没有敬畏希结局的话

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不见得比我们那些小公司要好哪里去

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而且呢我再给大家推演一下

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就是这个行业最终的一个结局啊

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首先内存涨价这个趋势短期不好解决啊

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等着这个啊长新呐

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包括这些国内的这些存储啊

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慢慢的这个恢复了大产能之后有可能会起来

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但是你看华为今年就很有很有意思啊

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不但不涨价还降价

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为什么呢

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拿到了这个哈哈长新哈

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这些下了大单

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然后对吧

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然后不但没涨还降价是吧

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你看苹果都是不了

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苹果都马上要涨价了

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说明手机这个内存涨价

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对这个厂家影响是非常非常大的

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包括对小米啊

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VIVOOPPO影响都很大

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然后还有一条呢汽车这个领域呢

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最终啊我给大家讲这个苦日子还会熬很久

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我不知道大家有没有看5月份的销售数据啊

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5月份汽车呢下滑了15%啊

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大家电下滑15%哈

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这又是手臂大厂最依赖的两个品类

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如果这两个品类啊连这个行业都下滑

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你知道接下来会血腥成什么样子

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你可以想象一下这些头部的汽车厂家对吧

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分变成什么样子

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我不知道大家有没有看

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前两天那个华晨宝宝那个股价跌到什么程度

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哈哈我看他打了个三折

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四折了

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都已经早就破镜了

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各位这就是手

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这就是汽车行业比手机还要血腥啊

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家电血腥

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汽车血腥

203
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手机更是雪上加霜是吧

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再加上这个其他的IOT周边的哈

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也是生死存亡

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你就可以想象一下

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大厂的负责人现在是什么状态

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精神状态什么状态

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心情什么状态

210
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然后呢这个个人的压力可想而知啊

211
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这个时候呢不得不去抛头露面啊

212
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吃热干面啊

213
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然后呢去啊

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希望这个更多的这个粉丝们支持一把

215
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那这个时候实际上讲

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大厂的负责人其实是内心的焦虑的

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因为这个时候大厂没有一个能够挑起来大梁啊

218
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能够给大厂啊

219
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给大厂老板去扛扛单子的

220
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这是不是验证了当时我说的大厂的团队哈

221
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绝对是哈一群乌合之众

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呵呵完全是靠压价格压档期哈

223
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完全是靠低价模式

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今天自己建了产业链之后

225
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发现压不到了钢厂哈

226
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芯片厂

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内存厂

228
00:07:19,529 --> 00:07:21,449
玻璃厂根本不吃这一套啊

229
00:07:21,449 --> 00:07:23,370
兄弟压缩机厂也不吃这一套啊

230
00:07:23,370 --> 00:07:27,009
兄弟所以呢这个这种常识哈

231
00:07:27,009 --> 00:07:29,819
然后看看我去年之前哈

232
00:07:29,819 --> 00:07:31,160
去年发的那些视频

233
00:07:31,160 --> 00:07:32,420
我不知道还在不在哈

234
00:07:32,420 --> 00:07:34,160
是不是所有的都验证了

235
00:07:34,160 --> 00:07:38,500
所以正式啊曾经的首富讲的嘛

236
00:07:38,500 --> 00:07:40,439
出来混总是要还的

237
00:07:40,439 --> 00:07:41,740
早晚得睡啊

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