BV1vbXbB6ERA · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,080 --> 00:00:02,480 我们刚刚从唐纳德·特朗普及其整个内阁那里得到了消息 2 00:00:02,480 --> 00:00:08,769 此外，美国正在准备对伊朗发动毁灭性打击的传闻 3 00:00:08,769 --> 00:00:09,449 在这期视频中 4 00:00:09,449 --> 00:00:13,890 我们将解析所有关于伊朗的言论和讨论 5 00:00:13,890 --> 00:00:15,109 过去两小时 6 00:00:15,109 --> 00:00:16,890 以便让大家了解最新进展 7 00:00:16,890 --> 00:00:17,550 首先 8 00:00:17,550 --> 00:00:20,370 我们将从贝莱德的拉里·芬克开始 9 00:00:20,370 --> 00:00:25,079 仅仅因为他说这场战争的问题是没有中间结果 10 00:00:25,079 --> 00:00:27,309 只有两种可能的结果 11 00:00:27,309 --> 00:00:31,030 石油价格要么随着增产大幅下跌 12 00:00:31,030 --> 00:00:33,399 战争随之结束或平息 13 00:00:33,399 --> 00:00:35,859 油价可能降至每桶四十美元 14 00:00:35,859 --> 00:00:39,869 或者飙升至每桶一百五十美元以上 15 00:00:39,869 --> 00:00:41,590 如果我们达到这个价位 16 00:00:41,590 --> 00:00:45,000 尤其是在未来几个月甚至数年 17 00:00:51,170 --> 00:00:54,210 白宫对此持何态度呢 18 00:00:54,210 --> 00:00:56,850 白宫正在谈论毁灭性打击 19 00:00:56,850 --> 00:01:01,179 对伊朗展示压倒性军事力量，据Axios报道 20 00:01:01,179 --> 00:01:05,359 近期白宫似乎成为最大消息泄露源 21 00:01:05,359 --> 00:01:06,668 而其他方面的消息 22 00:01:06,668 --> 00:01:09,060 比如伊朗方面 23 00:01:09,060 --> 00:01:10,540 或反白宫阵营 24 00:01:10,540 --> 00:01:11,379 则来自不同渠道 25 00:01:11,379 --> 00:01:11,780 实际上白宫内部近期消息灵通 26 00:01:11,780 --> 00:01:13,879 在当前讨论中 27 00:01:13,879 --> 00:01:17,150 这些并非官方公开内容 28 00:01:17,150 --> 00:01:18,530 但这是当前内部动态 29 00:01:18,530 --> 00:01:20,329 接下来我们将分析他们公开表态 30 00:01:20,329 --> 00:01:22,030 当前讨论的核心是通过强力震慑 31 00:01:22,030 --> 00:01:24,010 美国可能入侵或封锁卡岛 32 00:01:24,010 --> 00:01:28,030 请注意该岛控制着伊朗约90%的石油出口 33 00:01:28,030 --> 00:01:31,390 他们可能还会进攻其他岛屿 34 00:01:31,390 --> 00:01:36,859 以巩固霍尔木兹海峡控制权 35 00:01:36,859 --> 00:01:39,519 尽管特朗普在公开演讲中表示无需海峡 36 00:01:39,519 --> 00:01:43,719 我们甚至从中获取不到石油 37 00:01:43,719 --> 00:01:48,099 我们自有足够储备 38 00:01:48,099 --> 00:01:50,700 尽管他这么说 39 00:01:50,700 --> 00:01:52,539 特朗普可能意识到 40 00:01:52,539 --> 00:01:54,978 他在淡化海峡的重要性 41 00:01:54,978 --> 00:01:57,698 试图平抑油价上涨 42 00:01:57,698 --> 00:01:59,459 同时 43 00:01:59,459 --> 00:02:02,390 军事上却在准备夺取海峡控制权 44 00:02:03,430 --> 00:02:04,629 与此同时 45 00:02:04,629 --> 00:02:07,650 军事上正在准备夺取海峡 46 00:02:07,650 --> 00:02:08,509 部分原因在于 47 00:02:08,509 --> 00:02:11,509 特朗普在与马可·卢比奥的新闻发布会上 48 00:02:11,509 --> 00:02:16,039 暗示可能采取委内瑞拉模式选项 49 00:02:16,039 --> 00:02:21,860 即与伊朗合资石油生产和出口 50 00:02:21,860 --> 00:02:25,030 然后同时也要分出一些利润 51 00:02:25,030 --> 00:02:30,229 我个人认为伊朗不太可能对这种事情感兴趣 52 00:02:30,229 --> 00:02:30,770 呃 53 00:02:30,770 --> 00:02:32,750 本质上是与特朗普达成协议 54 00:02:32,750 --> 00:02:38,900 但希望这样的协议比派地面部队参战更好 55 00:02:38,900 --> 00:02:42,199 或者进一步实施这些毁灭性打击 56 00:02:42,199 --> 00:02:44,979 除了入侵或封锁卡岛 57 00:02:44,979 --> 00:02:46,689 他们可能还会入侵拉拉岛 58 00:02:46,689 --> 00:02:49,530 另一个有驻地的岛屿 59 00:02:49,530 --> 00:02:50,250 碉堡 60 00:02:50,250 --> 00:02:50,789 呃 61 00:02:50,789 --> 00:02:51,569 攻击艇 62 00:02:51,569 --> 00:02:52,569 小型快艇 63 00:02:52,569 --> 00:02:53,210 呃 64 00:02:53,210 --> 00:02:53,849 小型潜水艇 65 00:02:53,849 --> 00:02:55,050 可以附着的船只 66 00:02:55,050 --> 00:02:55,330 呃 67 00:02:55,330 --> 00:02:58,129 用磁性水雷附着在船体上 68 00:02:58,129 --> 00:02:59,349 C4炸药胶囊 69 00:02:59,349 --> 00:03:03,289 基本上可以靠岸或潜入并撞击 70 00:03:03,289 --> 00:03:03,710 呃 71 00:03:03,710 --> 00:03:07,750 贴附在货轮侧面炸出一个洞 72 00:03:07,750 --> 00:03:11,250 他们可能还会夺取其他岛屿和船只 73 00:03:11,250 --> 00:03:14,829 并完全控制海峡的航运 74 00:03:14,829 --> 00:03:21,929 随后还可能在伊朗境内开展行动夺取高浓缩铀 75 00:03:21,929 --> 00:03:25,340 伊朗据信拥有约460公斤这种材料 76 00:03:25,340 --> 00:03:28,300 大约60%是高浓缩铀 77 00:03:28,300 --> 00:03:31,370 我怀疑美国确切知道它的位置 78 00:03:31,370 --> 00:03:33,530 我认为有非常具体的原因 79 00:03:33,530 --> 00:03:35,569 我们尚未听到太多相关讨论 80 00:03:35,569 --> 00:03:39,610 “凿岩喷泉”是否被攻击或出现在新闻中 81 00:03:39,610 --> 00:03:40,069 因为 82 00:03:40,069 --> 00:03:40,310 坦白说 83 00:03:40,310 --> 00:03:43,990 我认为“凿岩山”正是高浓缩铀的藏匿地点 84 00:03:43,990 --> 00:03:47,110 美国想要它且不希望摧毁它 85 00:03:47,110 --> 00:03:49,849 尽管摧毁并掩埋也是一种选择 86 00:03:49,849 --> 00:03:54,449 我认为他们需要确保高浓缩铀已离开伊朗 87 00:03:54,449 --> 00:03:57,789 特朗普不会回应 88 00:03:57,789 --> 00:03:58,650 无论是 89 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:02,689 是否派地面部队或深入伊朗作战 90 00:04:02,689 --> 00:04:05,030 因为他不愿暴露意图 91 00:04:05,030 --> 00:04:05,939 换句话说 92 00:04:05,939 --> 00:04:11,650 但有趣的是过去几周他多次否认兴趣 93 00:04:11,650 --> 00:04:15,569 而私下我们听到有关他有意行动的泄露 94 00:04:15,569 --> 00:04:17,870 我认为特朗普越接近 95 00:04:17,870 --> 00:04:19,370 真正想要行动 96 00:04:19,370 --> 00:04:20,910 他就越说 97 00:04:20,910 --> 00:04:21,430 嗯 98 00:04:21,430 --> 00:04:23,149 我我不会告诉你 99 00:04:23,149 --> 00:04:28,158 这正是马杜罗数周前的情况 100 00:04:28,158 --> 00:04:29,079 这完全不是不是不是 101 00:04:29,079 --> 00:04:29,918 我们不会做任何事情 102 00:04:29,918 --> 00:04:30,759 我们不会做任何事情 103 00:04:30,759 --> 00:04:32,298 就在手术前的最后一刻 104 00:04:32,298 --> 00:04:33,238 我为什么要告诉你 105 00:04:33,238 --> 00:04:34,610 如果我们要做事的话 106 00:04:35,410 --> 00:04:37,730 似乎有一个特朗普的叙事弧线 107 00:04:37,730 --> 00:04:38,649 否认否认 108 00:04:38,649 --> 00:04:39,329 否认吧 109 00:04:39,329 --> 00:04:40,569 我不会告诉你爆炸 110 00:04:40,569 --> 00:04:42,319 无论如何都做 111 00:04:42,384 --> 00:04:43,680 卡罗琳·利维特 112 00:04:43,680 --> 00:04:44,040 当然 113 00:04:44,040 --> 00:04:45,720 说唐纳德·特朗普从不 bluff 114 00:04:45,720 --> 00:04:48,439 如果他们不达成协议 115 00:04:48,439 --> 00:04:49,980 特朗普准备对伊朗发动地狱攻势 116 00:04:49,980 --> 00:04:50,980 加利巴特 117 00:04:50,980 --> 00:04:53,689 被认为是特朗普谈判对象的人 118 00:04:53,689 --> 00:04:54,370 刚刚 119 00:04:54,370 --> 00:04:55,250 呃 120 00:04:55,250 --> 00:04:57,610 发布了一份新闻声明并称 121 00:04:57,610 --> 00:05:01,250 所有敌方行动都在我军监控之下 122 00:05:01,250 --> 00:05:04,100 如果这些敌对势力采取任何行动 123 00:05:04,100 --> 00:05:07,259 该地区所有关键基础设施 124 00:05:07,259 --> 00:05:08,980 包括所有邻国 125 00:05:08,980 --> 00:05:13,740 否则将无限制发动持续攻击 126 00:05:13,740 --> 00:05:17,300 显然伊朗革命卫队和伊朗对 127 00:05:17,300 --> 00:05:18,800 与特朗普的任何协议都持怀疑态度 128 00:05:18,800 --> 00:05:19,439 现在 129 00:05:25,629 --> 00:05:28,209 所有关于谈判或不谈判的讨论 130 00:05:28,209 --> 00:05:32,019 伊朗可能在说 131 00:05:32,019 --> 00:05:33,879 我们必须存疑一切 132 00:05:33,879 --> 00:05:35,060 显然在战争迷雾中 133 00:05:35,060 --> 00:05:40,089 但伊朗声称具备制造四百件武器的能力 134 00:05:40,089 --> 00:05:40,410 啊 135 00:05:40,410 --> 00:05:41,009 无人机武器 136 00:05:41,009 --> 00:05:42,430 你知道自杀式无人机 137 00:05:42,430 --> 00:05:43,949 Shaheed 136型 138 00:05:43,949 --> 00:05:46,089 或其他型号 139 00:05:46,089 --> 00:05:47,500 每天 140 00:05:47,500 --> 00:05:51,139 他们可能已经使用了三千多 141 00:05:51,139 --> 00:05:53,879 但他们认为可以重新生产 142 00:05:53,879 --> 00:05:55,529 你知道六到七天内 143 00:05:55,529 --> 00:05:59,149 这里值得注意的是这让我想到 144 00:05:59,149 --> 00:06:06,319 伊朗转移至俄罗斯的制造能力 145 00:06:06,319 --> 00:06:10,038 是否可能形成双向武器流动 146 00:06:10,038 --> 00:06:13,478 伊朗在俄罗斯有制造设施 147 00:06:13,478 --> 00:06:20,538 完全可能他们怀疑美军会轰炸伊朗工厂 148 00:06:20,538 --> 00:06:25,399 因此他们已在俄罗斯建立制造基地以防万一 149 00:06:25,399 --> 00:06:29,158 以帮助俄罗斯对抗乌克兰战争为名 150 00:06:29,158 --> 00:06:32,238 但他们也可以轻松通过里海 151 00:06:32,238 --> 00:06:34,060 以及流入其中的河流 152 00:06:34,060 --> 00:06:39,699 最终将这些武器重新供应回伊朗境内 153 00:06:40,699 --> 00:06:43,649 现在远离美国的摧毁 154 00:06:43,649 --> 00:06:46,230 当然除非美国直接攻击俄罗斯 155 00:06:46,230 --> 00:06:47,949 这似乎极不可能 156 00:06:47,949 --> 00:06:48,709 俄罗斯啊 157 00:06:48,709 --> 00:06:51,250 你似乎喜欢油价上涨 158 00:06:51,250 --> 00:06:56,060 而唐纳德·特朗普已豁免俄罗斯石油进口制裁 159 00:06:56,060 --> 00:06:57,459 这很有道理 160 00:06:57,459 --> 00:06:58,339 嗯 161 00:06:58,339 --> 00:07:00,379 帮助俄罗斯赚取大量资金 162 00:07:00,379 --> 00:07:01,319 不过 163 00:07:01,319 --> 00:07:02,908 有这些传言 164 00:07:02,908 --> 00:07:06,548 以色列必须掌握暗杀我们的戈奇的坐标 165 00:07:06,548 --> 00:07:06,949 那个 166 00:07:06,949 --> 00:07:10,288 伊朗外长以及古利·布夫 167 00:07:10,288 --> 00:07:10,749 但 168 00:07:10,749 --> 00:07:11,759 巴基斯坦表示 169 00:07:11,759 --> 00:07:13,699 如果你这么做并暗杀他们 170 00:07:13,699 --> 00:07:15,860 伊朗将无人可谈 171 00:07:15,860 --> 00:07:19,060 这主要是因为我们认为议会议长 172 00:07:19,060 --> 00:07:19,500 嗯 173 00:07:19,500 --> 00:07:20,100 阿里巴特 174 00:07:20,100 --> 00:07:22,079 以及在一定程度上的外长 175 00:07:22,079 --> 00:07:27,980 是通过巴基斯坦作为中介与美国进行谈判的人 176 00:07:27,980 --> 00:07:28,699 巴基斯坦 177 00:07:28,699 --> 00:07:33,379 鉴于伊朗与美国目前不直接对话 178 00:07:33,379 --> 00:07:33,860 当然 179 00:07:33,860 --> 00:07:36,259 美国提出了十五点计划 180 00:07:36,259 --> 00:07:39,560 但今日伊朗拒绝了该十五点计划 181 00:07:39,560 --> 00:07:43,139 伊朗称其单方面且不公平 182 00:07:43,139 --> 00:07:46,279 伊朗要求赔偿和弹道导弹 183 00:07:46,279 --> 00:07:47,120 以及 184 00:07:47,120 --> 00:07:47,540 嗯 185 00:07:47,540 --> 00:07:49,079 以及控制霍尔木兹海峡 186 00:07:49,079 --> 00:07:50,040 和 187 00:07:50,040 --> 00:07:51,779 美国不接受这些条件 188 00:07:51,779 --> 00:07:52,720 因此 189 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:56,639 唐纳德·特朗普今日表示我们对达成协议存疑 190 00:07:56,639 --> 00:07:59,040 他说伊朗方正急于达成协议 191 00:07:59,040 --> 00:08:01,399 但我们不确定这是否属实 192 00:08:01,399 --> 00:08:01,839 嗯 193 00:08:01,839 --> 00:08:05,550 但唐纳德·特朗普也警告伊朗需尽快严肃对待 194 00:08:05,550 --> 00:08:07,170 引述‘时不我待’ 195 00:08:07,170 --> 00:08:08,250 因为一旦如此 196 00:08:08,250 --> 00:08:09,658 将无法回头 197 00:08:09,658 --> 00:08:11,059 后果不堪设想 198 00:08:11,059 --> 00:08:14,949 这显然与我们的第一支两栖部队相关 199 00:08:14,949 --> 00:08:15,389 呃 200 00:08:15,389 --> 00:08:18,389 日本驶来的美军特里波利号明日抵达 201 00:08:18,389 --> 00:08:18,949 然后 202 00:08:18,949 --> 00:08:21,449 当然我们的伞兵很可能已经进入该地区 203 00:08:21,449 --> 00:08:25,949 鉴于他们可在十八小时内全球部署，且两天前已部署到位 204 00:08:25,949 --> 00:08:31,740 中央司令部刚宣布已击中第10000个目标 205 00:08:31,819 --> 00:08:35,639 以及伊朗最大舰艇的92% 206 00:08:35,639 --> 00:08:36,019 呃 207 00:08:36,019 --> 00:08:36,639 在海军方面 208 00:08:36,639 --> 00:08:37,500 以及海军方面 209 00:08:37,500 --> 00:08:43,159 以色列领导人梅雷·佩·以色列今晚或昨晚已被摧毁消灭 210 00:08:43,159 --> 00:08:45,580 中央司令部还表示我们已取得制空权 211 00:08:45,580 --> 00:08:48,470 并将战线推进至更纵深地区 212 00:08:48,470 --> 00:08:49,169 在我看来 213 00:08:49,169 --> 00:08:51,830 这确实为后续纵深行动奠定了路线图 214 00:08:51,830 --> 00:08:55,399 可能通过伞兵突袭获取高浓缩铀 215 00:08:55,399 --> 00:09:02,799 以及关于海军92%被摧毁的声明 216 00:09:02,799 --> 00:09:07,990 这里还有一些刻意未提及的背景信息 217 00:09:07,990 --> 00:09:12,710 中央司令部称伊朗最大舰艇92%已被摧毁 218 00:09:12,710 --> 00:09:13,509 唐纳德·特朗普 219 00:09:13,509 --> 00:09:16,990 马可·鲁比奥和JD万斯对此大加渲染并宣称 220 00:09:16,990 --> 00:09:19,059 我们彻底摧毁了他们的全部海军 221 00:09:19,299 --> 00:09:20,820 但这并非事实 222 00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:26,568 因为现实是我们最担忧的是小型船只 223 00:09:26,568 --> 00:09:30,629 那些看似渔船或快艇的小型船只 224 00:09:30,629 --> 00:09:31,089 呃 225 00:09:31,089 --> 00:09:34,639 无论是否硬壳或充气 226 00:09:34,679 --> 00:09:36,960 快速机动的小型船只 227 00:09:36,960 --> 00:09:39,440 这些才是我们最需警惕的 228 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:40,679 我们还需警惕 229 00:09:40,679 --> 00:09:41,889 光纤无人机 230 00:09:41,889 --> 00:09:43,309 光纤无人机 231 00:09:45,049 --> 00:09:45,470 呃 232 00:09:45,470 --> 00:09:46,110 第一人称视角 233 00:09:46,110 --> 00:09:46,570 你知道的 234 00:09:46,570 --> 00:09:47,690 在洞穴中的视角 235 00:09:47,690 --> 00:09:51,720 这些无人机可远程操控 236 00:09:51,720 --> 00:09:53,240 从洞穴中起飞 237 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,759 通过极细的光纤线缆 238 00:09:55,759 --> 00:10:01,720 如同钓鱼线般不受电磁干扰 239 00:10:01,720 --> 00:10:03,759 因为通过电缆连接 240 00:10:03,759 --> 00:10:06,359 而非无线电信号 241 00:10:06,798 --> 00:10:09,958 大多数家用无人机显然使用无线电 242 00:10:09,958 --> 00:10:11,678 这些均为无线电信号 243 00:10:11,678 --> 00:10:13,198 若信号被干扰 244 00:10:13,198 --> 00:10:14,659 无人机将坠落 245 00:10:14,659 --> 00:10:17,120 光纤无人机则避免此问题 246 00:10:17,120 --> 00:10:17,980 因为 247 00:10:17,980 --> 00:10:21,700 你实际上通过三十英里长的光纤线缆连接 248 00:10:21,700 --> 00:10:23,649 就像垂下来的钓鱼线 249 00:10:23,649 --> 00:10:25,909 事后清理起来有点麻烦 250 00:10:25,909 --> 00:10:29,500 但重点是它们拥有三十英里射程 251 00:10:29,500 --> 00:10:29,980 呃 252 00:10:29,980 --> 00:10:33,700 这些自杀式无人机可以通过光纤电缆操控 253 00:10:33,700 --> 00:10:35,658 就像在俄罗斯、乌克兰和伊朗 254 00:10:35,658 --> 00:10:39,458 具备组装这些设备的能力 255 00:10:39,458 --> 00:10:44,399 霍尔木兹海峡是绝佳的使用地点 256 00:10:44,399 --> 00:10:45,799 宽度仅有三十英里 257 00:10:45,799 --> 00:10:47,960 这里存在严重担忧 258 00:10:47,960 --> 00:10:51,519 海峡可能长期保持封锁状态 259 00:10:51,519 --> 00:10:51,679 现在 260 00:10:51,679 --> 00:10:58,438 唐纳德·特朗普曾表示当前伊朗允许八艘油轮 261 00:10:58,438 --> 00:11:01,458 在巴基斯坦旗帜下通过霍尔木兹海峡 262 00:11:01,458 --> 00:11:03,458 这是善意姿态 263 00:11:03,458 --> 00:11:03,999 嘿 264 00:11:03,999 --> 00:11:05,818 你们在与正确的人谈判 265 00:11:05,818 --> 00:11:08,269 应该与我们达成协议 266 00:11:08,269 --> 00:11:09,750 当然再次 267 00:11:09,750 --> 00:11:10,750 伊朗要求赔偿 268 00:11:10,750 --> 00:11:14,029 他们说唐纳德·特朗普的十五点计划远未达标 269 00:11:14,029 --> 00:11:15,549 我们仍需更多 270 00:11:15,549 --> 00:11:21,749 过去每天有四十到五十艘油轮通过海峡 271 00:11:21,749 --> 00:11:23,149 运输石油 272 00:11:23,149 --> 00:11:24,529 而现在只剩八艘 273 00:11:24,529 --> 00:11:25,690 这不仅关乎石油 274 00:11:25,690 --> 00:11:28,370 还有液化天然气设施 275 00:11:28,370 --> 00:11:32,309 如果我们对伊朗发动地面入侵或行动 276 00:11:32,309 --> 00:11:36,529 伊朗可能袭击该地区更多lng设施 277 00:11:36,529 --> 00:11:40,850 这将对全球天然气市场造成毁灭性打击 278 00:11:40,850 --> 00:11:44,859 没有战略天然气储备 279 00:11:44,859 --> 00:11:47,658 像战略石油储备那样可以释放 280 00:11:47,658 --> 00:11:48,899 此外 281 00:11:48,899 --> 00:11:53,250 液化天然气需要约负 282 00:11:53,250 --> 00:11:56,769 两百四十度低温液化 283 00:11:56,769 --> 00:11:59,779 从固态到液态 284 00:11:59,779 --> 00:12:01,039 没错通过加热 285 00:12:01,039 --> 00:12:04,580 我们实际上是从大量体积的气体 286 00:12:04,580 --> 00:12:08,159 转化为更压缩的液态形式以便运输 287 00:12:08,159 --> 00:12:11,549 这需要大幅冷却或冷冻 288 00:12:11,549 --> 00:12:14,409 当油管破裂时 289 00:12:14,409 --> 00:12:14,830 你 290 00:12:14,830 --> 00:12:17,190 更换新钢管并修复 291 00:12:17,190 --> 00:12:21,129 而液化天然气管道破裂时 292 00:12:21,129 --> 00:12:21,990 呃 293 00:12:21,990 --> 00:12:22,450 你知道的 294 00:12:22,450 --> 00:12:27,759 如卡塔尔能源公司遭遇的袭击 295 00:12:27,759 --> 00:12:31,470 可能导致工厂停工五年 296 00:12:31,470 --> 00:12:39,350 因为这些管道需特制低温材料且无其他用途 297 00:12:39,350 --> 00:12:41,370 此类材料供应极少 298 00:12:41,370 --> 00:12:44,570 这里存在严重的长期影响 299 00:12:44,570 --> 00:12:49,828 可能涉及某种军事入侵或战争升级 300 00:12:49,828 --> 00:12:55,068 共和党议员南希·麦斯对此发表了评论 301 00:12:55,068 --> 00:12:59,629 这让我对不会看到地面部队部署感到不乐观 302 00:12:59,629 --> 00:13:00,190 换句话说 303 00:13:00,190 --> 00:13:02,309 我认为我们将看到地面部队部署 304 00:13:02,309 --> 00:13:04,750 仅凭南希·麦斯的评论就足以判断 305 00:13:04,750 --> 00:13:06,129 你要看看这个 306 00:13:06,129 --> 00:13:09,850 现在屏幕上走出一栋房子的人 307 00:13:09,850 --> 00:13:11,669 武装部队对伊朗的简报 308 00:13:11,669 --> 00:13:12,649 让我重复一遍 309 00:13:12,649 --> 00:13:15,029 我不会支持在伊朗部署地面部队 310 00:13:15,029 --> 00:13:15,990 更何况 311 00:13:15,990 --> 00:13:17,049 在此次简报之后 312 00:13:17,049 --> 00:13:20,789 我不会支持派遣南卡罗来纳州的子民警告伊朗 313 00:13:20,789 --> 00:13:22,049 我不会这么做 314 00:13:22,049 --> 00:13:25,929 我们不能让华盛顿的战争机器将伊朗变成另一个战场 315 00:13:25,929 --> 00:13:28,330 华盛顿的战争机器正在全力运作 316 00:13:28,330 --> 00:13:29,990 他们试图将我们拖入伊朗 317 00:13:29,990 --> 00:13:31,149 将其变成另一个战场 318 00:13:31,149 --> 00:13:32,509 我们绝不能让他们得逞 319 00:13:32,509 --> 00:13:35,090 这是共和党议员的评论 320 00:13:35,090 --> 00:13:37,429 这位众议员看来 321 00:13:42,730 --> 00:13:44,019 而且 322 00:13:44,019 --> 00:13:45,958 这些计划可信度足够高 323 00:13:45,958 --> 00:13:50,980 部分国会议员开始坐立不安 324 00:13:50,980 --> 00:13:52,200 这很糟糕 325 00:13:52,200 --> 00:13:55,879 与此同时以色列仍在遭受轰炸 326 00:13:55,879 --> 00:13:57,539 当然还有德黑兰 327 00:13:57,539 --> 00:14:00,860 我刚刚看到新闻头条 328 00:14:00,860 --> 00:14:02,159 新闻正在播报 329 00:14:02,159 --> 00:14:02,980 通讯社消息 330 00:14:02,980 --> 00:14:05,059 伊朗首都传出爆炸声 331 00:14:05,059 --> 00:14:07,470 德黑兰和汽车城 332 00:14:07,470 --> 00:14:09,389 密集防空活动 333 00:14:09,389 --> 00:14:11,289 官方媒体 334 00:14:12,070 --> 00:14:12,590 总之 335 00:14:12,590 --> 00:14:13,009 呃 336 00:14:13,009 --> 00:14:13,730 继续播放 337 00:14:13,730 --> 00:14:14,169 嗯 338 00:14:14,169 --> 00:14:14,549 你知道的 339 00:14:14,549 --> 00:14:16,090 我们已进入这场战争的第四周 340 00:14:16,090 --> 00:14:20,789 特朗普政府称这场战争将持续4到6周 341 00:14:20,789 --> 00:14:23,429 特朗普认为我们有充足时间 342 00:14:23,429 --> 00:14:24,450 无需急于结束 343 00:14:24,450 --> 00:14:26,590 但这评论也不佳 344 00:14:26,590 --> 00:14:30,200 而伊朗人正炫耀 345 00:14:30,200 --> 00:14:32,879 美国已被拖入泥潭 346 00:14:32,879 --> 00:14:37,009 这场战争可能远超预期持续 347 00:14:37,370 --> 00:14:38,009 呃 348 00:14:38,009 --> 00:14:38,578 伊拉克 349 00:14:38,578 --> 00:14:41,538 这使美国耗费了两到三万亿美元 350 00:14:41,538 --> 00:14:43,918 仅从时间跨度对比 351 00:14:43,918 --> 00:14:44,298 呃 352 00:14:44,298 --> 00:14:46,669 并导致四五百名美军士兵阵亡 353 00:14:46,669 --> 00:14:50,370 伊朗正致力于扩大战场范围 354 00:14:52,749 --> 00:14:55,989 还试图拉拢其他国家参战 355 00:14:55,989 --> 00:14:57,759 这并不理想 356 00:14:57,759 --> 00:15:02,328 因此迫使特朗普必须立即结束战争 357 00:15:02,328 --> 00:15:04,288 或者通过拖延 358 00:15:04,288 --> 00:15:06,448 这可能损害美国信誉 359 00:15:06,448 --> 00:15:10,950 并表明德黑兰掌控霍尔木兹海峡或加速战争 360 00:15:10,950 --> 00:15:13,799 问题在于越南战争的担忧 361 00:15:13,799 --> 00:15:14,279 你知道的 362 00:15:17,620 --> 00:15:19,318 并认为民众渴望解放 363 00:15:19,318 --> 00:15:22,318 但实际上是在对抗越南民族主义 364 00:15:22,318 --> 00:15:24,759 问题是其中有多少民族主义成分 365 00:15:24,759 --> 00:15:28,629 在伊朗我们真的在解放人民吗 366 00:15:28,629 --> 00:15:29,129 你知道的 367 00:15:29,129 --> 00:15:29,590 邪恶的 368 00:15:29,590 --> 00:15:30,350 呃 369 00:15:30,350 --> 00:15:31,389 阿亚图拉 370 00:15:32,730 --> 00:15:35,149 这些都是我们可能不了解的问题 371 00:15:35,149 --> 00:15:37,269 直到事后偏见显现 372 00:15:37,269 --> 00:15:38,179 但总之 373 00:15:38,179 --> 00:15:41,059 美国征兵年龄已提高至18岁 374 00:15:41,059 --> 00:15:42,980 这也相当有趣 375 00:15:42,980 --> 00:15:45,700 这也表明再次 376 00:15:45,700 --> 00:15:46,200 呃 377 00:15:46,200 --> 00:15:48,960 地面部队可能更显必要 378 00:15:48,960 --> 00:15:49,840 嗯 379 00:15:49,840 --> 00:15:51,240 这引发了一些人的疑问 380 00:15:51,240 --> 00:15:53,460 这是否意味着征兵年龄也被提高 381 00:15:53,460 --> 00:15:55,059 而默认答案是肯定的 382 00:15:55,059 --> 00:15:57,860 但美国已许久未实行征兵 383 00:15:57,860 --> 00:16:00,029 很久了 384 00:16:00,029 --> 00:16:02,590 我猜最后一次是二战 385 00:16:02,590 --> 00:16:03,169 但让我们看看 386 00:16:03,169 --> 00:16:06,289 上次美国实行征兵 387 00:16:06,289 --> 00:16:09,590 越南战争时期简直令人震惊 388 00:16:09,590 --> 00:16:11,470 想想1972年 389 00:16:11,470 --> 00:16:13,220 我们曾为越南战争实施征兵 390 00:16:13,220 --> 00:16:14,080 这很有趣 391 00:16:14,080 --> 00:16:14,679 这合乎逻辑 392 00:16:14,679 --> 00:16:17,159 因为这是特朗普有骨刺的地方 393 00:16:17,159 --> 00:16:20,769 毕竟他因骨刺无法参战医生说的 394 00:16:20,769 --> 00:16:22,990 我相当确定他是房东 395 00:16:22,990 --> 00:16:24,350 所以他的租客 396 00:16:24,350 --> 00:16:25,269 给他写了 397 00:16:25,269 --> 00:16:26,389 医生的证明 398 00:16:26,389 --> 00:16:27,710 我们必须核实事实 399 00:16:27,710 --> 00:16:28,889 如果确实有租客的话 400 00:16:28,889 --> 00:16:29,789 但我相当确定是这样 401 00:16:29,789 --> 00:16:30,649 不过暂且不论 402 00:16:30,649 --> 00:16:31,409 呃 403 00:16:31,409 --> 00:16:35,210 现在我们的处境是 404 00:16:35,210 --> 00:16:40,399 如果唐纳德·特朗普最终选择发动这场毁灭性打击 405 00:16:40,399 --> 00:16:43,529 我们在霍尔木兹地区夺取战略控制权 406 00:16:43,529 --> 00:16:46,009 在沿海部署部队 407 00:16:46,009 --> 00:16:47,289 战略岛屿 408 00:16:47,289 --> 00:16:51,450 并突袭伊朗取出高度浓缩铀 409 00:16:51,450 --> 00:16:58,139 这让我们非常担忧战争可能在暂缓前大幅升级 410 00:16:58,139 --> 00:16:59,759 经合组织 411 00:16:59,759 --> 00:17:03,500 刚刚警告全球经济可能在2026年遭受重大打击 412 00:17:03,500 --> 00:17:06,960 甚至2027年会更糟 413 00:17:06,960 --> 00:17:14,048 这很糟糕因为我们经济已有多个领域放缓 414 00:17:14,048 --> 00:17:15,180 比如啊 415 00:17:15,180 --> 00:17:18,480 人工智能融资可能正在放缓 416 00:17:18,480 --> 00:17:18,779 我说 417 00:17:18,779 --> 00:17:20,619 我们已经看到OpenAI的情况 418 00:17:20,619 --> 00:17:21,660 他们暗示 419 00:17:21,660 --> 00:17:24,119 我们现在必须提供17.5%的担保 420 00:17:24,119 --> 00:17:27,099 只为吸引私募基金投资 421 00:17:27,099 --> 00:17:30,519 仅此才能筹集资金 422 00:17:30,519 --> 00:17:33,210 存在这种担忧 423 00:17:33,210 --> 00:17:33,690 呃 424 00:17:33,690 --> 00:17:36,920 私人信贷远未 425 00:17:37,079 --> 00:17:38,339 退出市场 426 00:17:38,339 --> 00:17:40,079 呃呃 427 00:17:40,079 --> 00:17:40,440 呃 428 00:17:40,440 --> 00:17:41,599 或者即将结束 429 00:17:41,599 --> 00:17:43,190 我应该说并非退出 430 00:17:43,190 --> 00:17:47,430 而私人信贷真正的问题才刚刚开始 431 00:17:47,430 --> 00:17:49,650 尤其是现在我们看到Aries基金 432 00:17:49,650 --> 00:17:53,119 也开始设置赎回上限 433 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,079 表明投资者急于撤资 434 00:17:56,079 --> 00:18:00,000 再加上经合组织的警告 435 00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:03,619 全球经济可能被下调评级 436 00:18:03,619 --> 00:18:08,009 随着战争持续英国和欧洲将被下调最多 437 00:18:08,009 --> 00:18:11,789 因为他们前期增长动力最弱 438 00:18:11,789 --> 00:18:14,710 现在这让我们面临 439 00:18:14,710 --> 00:18:15,309 呃 440 00:18:15,309 --> 00:18:16,589 部分新闻发布会 441 00:18:16,589 --> 00:18:17,230 呃 442 00:18:17,230 --> 00:18:20,960 来自唐纳德·特朗普团队的评论 443 00:18:20,960 --> 00:18:23,119 现在让我们分析一下特朗普的言论 444 00:18:23,119 --> 00:18:26,369 特朗普和JD万斯表示伊朗海军已基本被摧毁 445 00:18:26,369 --> 00:18:27,609 这又是 446 00:18:27,609 --> 00:18:28,650 在我看来是错误的 447 00:18:28,650 --> 00:18:30,009 因为他们忽视了 448 00:18:30,009 --> 00:18:32,450 不仅仅是CENTCOM提到的8% 449 00:18:32,450 --> 00:18:34,210 大型舰艇并未被摧毁 450 00:18:34,210 --> 00:18:39,109 还包括未被提及的目标小型舰艇 451 00:18:39,109 --> 00:18:40,150 你确实有 452 00:18:40,150 --> 00:18:40,890 呃 453 00:18:40,890 --> 00:18:41,809 马可·鲁比奥 454 00:18:41,809 --> 00:18:45,190 声称美国与伊朗已处于战争状态长达四年七个月 455 00:18:45,190 --> 00:18:46,839 这或许能结束这场冲突 456 00:18:46,839 --> 00:18:48,779 这并非完全不实 457 00:18:48,779 --> 00:18:51,079 我们一直与伊朗处于战争状态 458 00:18:51,079 --> 00:18:52,710 并通过代理人作战 459 00:18:53,029 --> 00:18:53,589 呃 460 00:18:53,589 --> 00:18:54,730 那个 461 00:18:54,730 --> 00:18:55,650 我们的谈判代表之一 462 00:18:55,650 --> 00:18:58,449 史蒂夫·沃夫建议我们要求停止铀浓缩 463 00:18:58,449 --> 00:19:01,088 杜绝核武器化可能 464 00:19:01,088 --> 00:19:02,608 拆除布什尔核电站 465 00:19:02,608 --> 00:19:03,809 纳坦兹和伊斯法罕设施 466 00:19:03,809 --> 00:19:07,809 并将所有浓缩材料移交美国 467 00:19:07,809 --> 00:19:11,250 同时削减导弹和远程库存 468 00:19:11,250 --> 00:19:11,930 不幸的是 469 00:19:11,930 --> 00:19:13,730 伊朗的回应是 470 00:19:13,730 --> 00:19:18,329 他们拥有不可剥夺的铀浓缩权利 471 00:19:18,329 --> 00:19:21,769 已积累足够高浓缩铀可制造11枚核弹 472 00:19:21,769 --> 00:19:24,029 不幸的是随后 473 00:19:24,029 --> 00:19:26,289 我们于2月28日发动了入侵 474 00:19:26,289 --> 00:19:31,450 目前美国通过巴基斯坦提出了15点计划 475 00:19:31,450 --> 00:19:35,740 现在我们正处于关键转折点且无更好选择 476 00:19:35,740 --> 00:19:41,720 这很糟糕因为它暗示随着美国保持制空权 477 00:19:41,720 --> 00:19:46,990 我们正一步步走向特朗普启动 478 00:19:46,990 --> 00:19:49,910 派遣美军士兵 479 00:19:49,910 --> 00:19:53,970 彼得·海格塞斯吹嘘我们不仅已部署 480 00:19:53,970 --> 00:19:55,009 评论员称我们正在深入 481 00:19:55,009 --> 00:19:56,009 但彼得·海格塞斯 482 00:19:56,009 --> 00:20:00,789 认为我方F-16战机和阿帕奇直升机的部署 483 00:20:00,789 --> 00:20:05,220 表明伊朗防空能力极弱 484 00:20:05,220 --> 00:20:09,798 莱夫·贝塞特指出这是霍尔木兹海峡 485 00:20:09,798 --> 00:20:11,469 是经济命脉要道 486 00:20:11,469 --> 00:20:14,568 此前我们仅是表面保障安全 487 00:20:14,568 --> 00:20:16,788 获得安全保障后 488 00:20:16,788 --> 00:20:19,420 局势将改善油价回升 489 00:20:19,859 --> 00:20:22,140 特朗普被问及是否要进攻铀矿 490 00:20:22,140 --> 00:20:23,579 当然这就是特朗普 491 00:20:23,579 --> 00:20:24,599 正如我之前提到的 492 00:20:24,599 --> 00:20:25,199 说 493 00:20:25,199 --> 00:20:26,459 这是荒谬的问题 494 00:20:26,459 --> 00:20:27,479 我不会告诉你 495 00:20:27,479 --> 00:20:27,778 哪个 496 00:20:27,778 --> 00:20:30,909 在我看来这暗示我们正接近唐纳德·特朗普介入的可能 497 00:20:30,909 --> 00:20:33,028 唐纳德·特朗普说我们并未耗尽武器 498 00:20:33,028 --> 00:20:34,288 我们拥有全球的弹药 499 00:20:34,288 --> 00:20:36,989 或许我们可以与委内瑞拉开展合资项目 500 00:20:36,989 --> 00:20:40,309 但最终我们并不需要霍尔木兹海峡 501 00:20:40,309 --> 00:20:42,250 换句话说 502 00:20:42,250 --> 00:20:45,609 迄今为止所有言论都显得具有挑衅性 503 00:20:45,609 --> 00:20:46,730 在我看来 504 00:20:46,730 --> 00:20:48,769 这一切都没有缓和局势 505 00:20:48,769 --> 00:20:49,710 而且 506 00:20:49,710 --> 00:20:50,150 呃 507 00:20:50,150 --> 00:20:50,869 这很糟糕 508 00:20:50,869 --> 00:20:54,490 我认为这就是我们看到两年期国债收益率上升的原因 509 00:20:54,490 --> 00:20:57,450 现在升至3.94% 510 00:20:57,450 --> 00:20:58,839 几乎回到4% 511 00:20:58,839 --> 00:21:00,119 这正是周一早盘的情况 512 00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:03,690 当唐纳德·特朗普似乎几乎在五日计划上翻车时 513 00:21:03,690 --> 00:21:05,730 国债收益率维持在4% 514 00:21:05,730 --> 00:21:07,930 3.99%和布伦特原油10.7美元 515 00:21:07,930 --> 00:21:10,809 抵押贷款利率现为6.38% 516 00:21:10,809 --> 00:21:12,829 所有指标都显著走高 517 00:21:12,829 --> 00:21:14,230 今日市场 518 00:21:14,230 --> 00:21:15,269 正在回落 519 00:21:15,269 --> 00:21:17,309 今早我对市场相当看空 520 00:21:17,309 --> 00:21:19,460 在我们的阿尔法报告中 521 00:21:19,460 --> 00:21:25,869 并特别指出美光科技和铠侠科技面临下行风险 522 00:21:25,869 --> 00:21:29,849 果然铠侠科技已下跌9% 523 00:21:29,849 --> 00:21:31,829 微软下跌5% 524 00:21:31,829 --> 00:21:32,839 信号 525 00:21:32,839 --> 00:21:34,160 今早我们提到 526 00:21:34,160 --> 00:21:37,900 577线可能是我们需要关注的反弹点 527 00:21:37,900 --> 00:21:38,799 如果有的话 528 00:21:38,799 --> 00:21:41,679 而今日市场正逐步接近该线 529 00:21:41,679 --> 00:21:46,038 当然我此前强烈强调大幅下行风险 530 00:21:46,038 --> 00:21:49,659 可能降临至VCX基金 531 00:21:49,659 --> 00:21:53,719 该股已暴跌 532 00:21:53,719 --> 00:21:56,058 毫无悬念地暴跌 533 00:21:56,058 --> 00:21:58,069 我不知道它已暴跌 534 00:21:58,069 --> 00:21:58,750 呃 535 00:21:58,750 --> 00:22:00,769 自从今早的阿尔法报告电话会议后 536 00:22:00,769 --> 00:22:02,309 阿尔法报告已发布 537 00:22:02,309 --> 00:22:02,549 呃 538 00:22:02,549 --> 00:22:03,980 大约在六点左右 539 00:22:04,299 --> 00:22:06,140 因此股价应在此处 540 00:22:06,140 --> 00:22:09,730 当时交易价约431美元 541 00:22:09,730 --> 00:22:11,750 自今早会议后 542 00:22:11,750 --> 00:22:17,619 股价从盘前波动后已下跌超50% 543 00:22:17,619 --> 00:22:20,069 这相当惊人 544 00:22:20,069 --> 00:22:21,809 如果你想成为我们其中的一员 545 00:22:21,809 --> 00:22:22,170 呃 546 00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:23,029 基本面分析 547 00:22:23,029 --> 00:22:25,309 每天早晨进行技术分析直播 548 00:22:25,309 --> 00:22:26,250 以及阿尔法报告 549 00:22:26,250 --> 00:22:27,700 务必前往访问kevin com 550 00:22:27,700 --> 00:22:29,500 你将获得所有财富构建课程 551 00:22:29,500 --> 00:22:32,720 你将获得终身会员权限访问阿尔法报告 552 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,069 在此期间 553 00:22:35,069 --> 00:22:36,150 大家好运 554 00:22:36,150 --> 00:22:38,390 为什么不在这里宣传这些内容呢 555 00:22:38,390 --> 00:22:40,150 我觉得没人知道这件事 556 00:22:40,150 --> 00:22:42,339 我们试试小范围广告看看效果 557 00:22:42,339 --> 00:22:43,119 恭喜 558 00:22:43,119 --> 00:22:43,380 天啊 559 00:22:43,380 --> 00:22:44,180 你已经做了这么多 560 00:22:44,180 --> 00:22:45,019 大家都很喜欢你 561 00:22:45,019 --> 00:22:45,920 人们都敬佩你 562 00:22:45,920 --> 00:22:46,960 就是kevin paffrath 563 00:22:46,960 --> 00:22:48,740 金融分析师兼YouTuber 564 00:22:48,740 --> 00:22:49,420 认识kevin 565 00:22:49,420 --> 00:22:50,819 很高兴听到你的见解
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