美股：熊市？吓人的吧。【2026-06-09】

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Hello

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大家好

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欢迎回到阳光财经

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我是sunny

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今天是2026年6月9号星期二

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跌幅0.26%

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跌是没有跌多少

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但是盘中差点吓死人

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到了12点多的时候

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标普指数一度下跌到7000

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237点的日内最低点

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市场一片恐慌

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正在想这么大一个阴线下来

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标普指数可能要直奔7000了

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但是从12:41分见底后

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指数回升

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日K线图收出了一个长下影线

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大阴线让人恐慌

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长下影线让人安心

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经历过很多次暴跌

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都是天天跌

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天天大阴线压力巨大

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压力大的目的就是要逼大家卖出股票

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逼杠杆多头爆仓

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像今天这样跌了又日内回升

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形成下影线的

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算是比较善良的走势

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不太像是要把多头逼到爆仓的样子

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但趋势还是向下的

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因为上面30天以下的均线全部失守

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如果标普指数向下寻找7090一点支撑

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也不无可能

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跌幅0.97%

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日内探底回升

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形成较长的下影线

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提示短线空头可能回补

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跌起来有承接

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不太像暴跌大屠杀啦

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但是趋势要反转

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还得先来个大阳线

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收复一下30天均线再说

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现在股市调整主要原因就是我前天说的三个

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但是最核心的应该还是加息预期

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实际上这次的加息幅度和次数

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都将不如前一个加息周期

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有可能象征性的加息一次就加不动了

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甚至有可能加息只是传说

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临到跟前就说两句

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鹰派言论弹塞过去

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可能打嘴炮大于实际行动了

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根据这个判断

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我认为股市涨多了

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技术调整是完全合理的

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但要形成2022年那样的持续熊市

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则概率不大

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股市仍将是短空长多的格局

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决定要不要加息的关键还是物价指数怎么样

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CPI明天发布

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将是一颗市场的重磅炸弹

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因为美联储无非两个政策目标

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充分就业和物价稳定

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上周的非农就业数据已经超过预期

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市场开始提高年内加息预期

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如果明天CPI又大超预期的话

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年内加息概率还会提高

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股市一听又要加息

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加息又要提前

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那延续最近的下跌的可能性也挺大了

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克利夫兰联储实时CPI预测数据显示

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5月份的整体CPI将达到2.82%

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核心CPI高达4.18%

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按月环比来看

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5月份整体CPI环比增长0.46%

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核心CPI环比增长0.23%

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都较前几个月明显回升

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市场预测

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明天即将公布的CPI同比是4.2%

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比前值3.8%有明显回升

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核心CPI是2.9%

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比前值2.8%略有回升

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预期的数字已经对通胀看高一线

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如果公布出来的实际数符合预期

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那倒也还好

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最怕的是超过预期

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所以这颗雷要排除美股

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才有可能从下跌趋势中缓过来

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美国和伊朗的谈判拉锯仍在进行

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美国能源部长说

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霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输吞吐量已经上升

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并将继续扩大

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这样的言论导致石油价格今天有所回落

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但实际上海峡的流量比战争前仍大幅萎缩

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伊朗击落了一架

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在霍尔木兹海峡上空巡逻的直升机

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川普发帖表示

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美国必须对此次袭击作出回应

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但要怎么回应

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并没有说

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川普今天仍表示

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有信心很快与伊朗达成协议

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双方正处于一项非常好的协议的最后阶段

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该协议将阻止伊朗获得核武器

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并在签署后立即全部重新开放

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霍尔木兹海峡

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原油市场可能正在预测消息面的走向

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在100上下宽幅震荡后

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原油感觉随时可能破位

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布伦特原油在红色净线上稳住的话

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还能有反弹的机会

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在红线上不由多次冲击

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110以上

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形成了3~4次高点

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110以上站不稳掉下来

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在90美元一线形成的最后防守位置

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如果不由突然跌破90的话

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就做出了一个头部图形

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趋势将大概率转为空头行情

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能让不由破位的可能是市场自发的行动

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也有可能是消息面主导

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即使是市场自己破位

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也是对消息面预期的定价

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最终都是在博弈

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战争结束

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协议签署

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一旦原油破位下跌

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股市的通胀围城效应就不攻自破了

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在原油反复测试净现有可能破位之时

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不太建议做空美股大盘指数啊

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所谓做空美股大盘是指卖出融券

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买入看跌期权

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但也是指卖出手上持有的大盘ETF和明星股

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昨天有两家大的金融机构看涨标普指数

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目标定到了8000点以上

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今天美国银行策略师团队出了一个报告

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说股市的熊市信号太多啦

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建议获利了结

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这些熊市信号包括了20项指标中的17个

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都显示出统计意义上的高估值

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其中八项指标甚至已经超过了2000年

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互联网泡沫时的峰值水平

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这17项指标主要是分析过度投机企业基本面

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标普表现最好的10%

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股票和最差的10%之间的差距

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融资环境等等

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比如说过度投机有没有呢

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美国银行认为

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市盈率高的股票大幅跑赢市盈率低的股票

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这种现象说明市场只买贵的

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对昂贵热门股票的追捧超过了对基本面的支持

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是典型的泡沫特征

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还有就是市场宽度

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大盘仍靠少数巨头支撑

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这持续很久啦

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是一个比较大的熊市信号

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与其说市场泡沫过度投机

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资本开支过高

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融资收紧等多个指标是熊市信号

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不如说是市场预警信号

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因为毕竟还没有技术上进入熊市啊

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美股跌了几天

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说不定过几天又反弹了

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熊市是一个持续时间长

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下跌幅度比较大的过程

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泡沫的破灭也需要有一个导火索

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华尔街的大银行有时唱多

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有时唱空

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但美股的大盘指数在这么多年以来都是上涨

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跌的多了的时候

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反而是小散户发财的机会

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不然平时涨个不停

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只能买高价票上车啊

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有打折票来了

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上的是同一辆车不是更好吗

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本周有一件事是确定的

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就是SPACEX要在星期五上市

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但这件事带来了很多不确定性

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可能为了卖个好价钱

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上市后不要破发吧

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IPO前

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SPACEX利好一个又一个

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首先是获得谷歌的长期订单

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谷歌持有SPACEX的股票的有6%的股权

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市值上千亿

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上市前谷歌又给送了个大礼包

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就是谷歌每个月支付9.2亿美元

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租用SPACEX的算力

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租期从2026年的10月到2029年6月

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SPACEX手上有XAI人工智能

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将闲置算力租给谷歌

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另外也租给了ANTHROPIC

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雅虎的分析文章说

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在这两笔人工智能交易之前

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SPACEX的市值除以销售额是100倍

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加上这两笔算力出租收入

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可以将市销率降到40倍

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另一个利好是SPACEX发布首个AI1轨道数据中心

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马斯克说

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轨道数据中心卫星比星链卫星还容易

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一个AIE卫星算力120千瓦

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电力来自一个太阳能电池阵列

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太空计算中

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在真空中散热问题

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用可展开的液体散热器来解决

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马斯克说

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人工智能卫星本质上就是很多太阳能电池

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通过利用星链已经开发的硬件和制造工艺

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它可以很快将概念转化为量产

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那这一次的SPACEX画的饼也是够大的

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不然1.75万亿的市值很容易就绷不住啊

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市场非常担心SPACEX会像2012年FACEBOOK上市一样

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上市后跌了54%

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FACEBOOK就是meta的前身

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它上市后

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市场就对社交软件通过广告盈利的模式

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还不是非常清楚

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所以股价上市后大幅下跌

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SPACEX上市也给出了非常高的估值

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而市场非常清楚

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在可预测的未来

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SPACEX可能无法实现净利润为正

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的这样的一个目标

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上市后限售期结束

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大量原始股要冲击市场

224
00:09:28,620 --> 00:09:31,460
而公司的商业模式和盈利能力

225
00:09:31,460 --> 00:09:33,559
又不能得到市场认同的话

226
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:37,110
股价会不会像当年的FACEBOOK一样大跌呢

227
00:09:37,110 --> 00:09:38,889
不过那个是后话啦

228
00:09:38,889 --> 00:09:41,409
最近IPO吸走了大量资金

229
00:09:41,409 --> 00:09:43,929
导致市场出现的资金潮汐

230
00:09:43,929 --> 00:09:45,570
为了认购新股

231
00:09:45,570 --> 00:09:47,629
券商是要收保证金的

232
00:09:47,629 --> 00:09:50,250
一股保证金是135美元的

233
00:09:50,250 --> 00:09:51,570
120%

234
00:09:51,570 --> 00:09:54,809
这些资金在最近几天离开二级市场

235
00:09:54,809 --> 00:09:57,250
迅速锁定在认购账户中

236
00:09:57,250 --> 00:09:59,789
认购可以持续到6月11号

237
00:09:59,789 --> 00:10:03,490
到今天为止已经获得了四倍认购

238
00:10:03,490 --> 00:10:06,450
SPACEX只需要融750亿

239
00:10:06,450 --> 00:10:09,068
但锁定了2500亿以上

240
00:10:09,068 --> 00:10:11,668
因为还有几十个小时才截止认购

241
00:10:11,668 --> 00:10:14,019
认购倍数还会进一步增长

242
00:10:14,019 --> 00:10:17,440
那没有中签新股的钱是要退回的

243
00:10:17,440 --> 00:10:19,419
未中签的申购款项

244
00:10:19,419 --> 00:10:22,360
将在上市前后退回投资者账户

245
00:10:22,360 --> 00:10:26,129
到时就会有接近2000亿的钱回到投资者的账上

246
00:10:26,129 --> 00:10:29,309
那么6月12号新股申购资金回笼

247
00:10:29,309 --> 00:10:32,250
将缓解市场资金面紧张的局面

248
00:10:32,250 --> 00:10:35,509
下一个大规模融资可能会在9月份

249
00:10:35,509 --> 00:10:38,350
OpenAI已经提交了IPO申请

250
00:10:38,350 --> 00:10:40,000
预计9月份上市

251
00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,179
ANTHROPIC也快啦

252
00:10:42,179 --> 00:10:44,639
但至少应该会有三个月的时间

253
00:10:44,639 --> 00:10:47,440
市场不需要应付巨型IPO了

254
00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:50,639
这种对市场抽走2000多亿资金的IPO

255
00:10:50,639 --> 00:10:53,580
在上市后又回归市场的资金潮汐

256
00:10:53,580 --> 00:10:56,240
确实对股市是一个巨大的干扰

257
00:10:56,240 --> 00:10:58,159
最近特斯拉不好操作

258
00:10:58,159 --> 00:10:59,919
要跌也不破位

259
00:10:59,919 --> 00:11:01,720
要涨也不可能

260
00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,870
钱似乎跑去追星了

261
00:11:03,870 --> 00:11:06,629
马斯克概念股一只变两只以后

262
00:11:06,629 --> 00:11:09,429
马斯克光顾着给SPACEX画大饼

263
00:11:09,429 --> 00:11:12,049
特斯拉的含冰量明显下降

264
00:11:12,049 --> 00:11:13,740
嗷嗷待哺的

265
00:11:13,740 --> 00:11:16,960
目前的这个K线图是一个熬时间

266
00:11:16,960 --> 00:11:19,059
没意思的震荡趋势

267
00:11:19,059 --> 00:11:20,379
反正没钱赚

268
00:11:23,159 --> 00:11:24,990
净值20.5万

269
00:11:24,990 --> 00:11:27,649
虽然看起来只有circle在亏钱

270
00:11:27,649 --> 00:11:31,490
但实际上目前这个投资组合确实挺头大的

271
00:11:31,490 --> 00:11:34,019
不太有爆发性增长的机会

272
00:11:34,019 --> 00:11:35,940
昨天有一观众提问说

273
00:11:35,940 --> 00:11:38,639
微软和meta啥时候可以新高啊

274
00:11:38,639 --> 00:11:41,009
这俩熊了九个月了吧

275
00:11:41,009 --> 00:11:44,289
嗯微软在之前形成头肩底之后

276
00:11:44,289 --> 00:11:46,409
居然连续七个音线下挫

277
00:11:46,409 --> 00:11:47,490
底部都给错

278
00:11:47,490 --> 00:11:48,659
没有了啊

279
00:11:48,659 --> 00:11:50,320
我实在没有见过明星股

280
00:11:50,320 --> 00:11:52,740
还能这么破坏头肩底图形呢

281
00:11:52,740 --> 00:11:55,679
目前微软由进攻转为防守

282
00:11:55,679 --> 00:11:57,700
下方不能跌破390

283
00:11:57,700 --> 00:11:59,480
更不能跌破355

284
00:11:59,480 --> 00:12:01,490
不然可能会很麻烦

285
00:12:01,490 --> 00:12:03,809
当然如果防守守住了

286
00:12:03,809 --> 00:12:04,850
未来创新高

287
00:12:04,850 --> 00:12:05,450
可以期待

288
00:12:06,450 --> 00:12:07,289
相比之下

289
00:12:07,289 --> 00:12:09,299
微软是比meta还熊

290
00:12:09,299 --> 00:12:11,559
都是调整了三四个季度啦

291
00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,568
但是微软是跌的幅度大

292
00:12:13,568 --> 00:12:15,869
meta只是高位宽幅震荡

293
00:12:15,869 --> 00:12:17,208
如果要创新高

294
00:12:17,208 --> 00:12:18,919
meta更有可能

295
00:12:18,919 --> 00:12:22,990
但我相信这两支在较远的将来都会有新高

296
00:12:22,990 --> 00:12:25,250
好那今天的节目就分享到这里

297
00:12:25,250 --> 00:12:26,169
感谢大家收看

298
00:12:26,169 --> 00:12:28,019
我们下期节目再见拜拜

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