【美光突击】MU暴跌，追高被套怎么办？别被短期回调吓跑，看懂AI内存的「结构性机会」，赢在先机！

1
00:00:00,000 --> 00:00:01,300
投资不是赌博

2
00:00:01,300 --> 00:00:03,259
而是一场有准备的出击

3
00:00:03,259 --> 00:00:04,179
我是福哥

4
00:00:04,179 --> 00:00:04,940
家人们啊

5
00:00:04,940 --> 00:00:07,939
最近呢这个大家都在讨论这个美观啊

6
00:00:07,939 --> 00:00:09,478
很多家人们都问啊

7
00:00:09,478 --> 00:00:11,999
福哥怎么业绩好到价廉的美观

8
00:00:11,999 --> 00:00:15,759
股价却直接连续几天暴跌呢

9
00:00:15,759 --> 00:00:20,940
到底是这个主力洗盘倒车接人还是利好出境啊

10
00:00:20,940 --> 00:00:22,079
见顶跑路呢

11
00:00:22,079 --> 00:00:25,109
甚至有是不少家人们啊追在了山顶是吧

12
00:00:25,109 --> 00:00:26,190
有点慌啊

13
00:00:26,190 --> 00:00:26,629
家人们呢

14
00:00:26,629 --> 00:00:28,940
今天福哥从这个美光的核心业绩啊

15
00:00:28,940 --> 00:00:30,440
这些暴跌的一个真相

16
00:00:30,440 --> 00:00:32,380
未来的潜力三个维度啊

17
00:00:32,380 --> 00:00:33,560
给大家讲清楚

18
00:00:33,560 --> 00:00:37,119
来帮你判断现在到底该进场

19
00:00:37,119 --> 00:00:39,280
加仓还是观望还是离场好

20
00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:39,920
所以家人们

21
00:00:39,920 --> 00:00:43,820
那我们呢先看一下啊米光的核心数据啊

22
00:00:43,820 --> 00:00:46,700
这个26年的第二季度财报啊

23
00:00:46,700 --> 00:00:50,709
美光总营收达到了238亿美元

24
00:00:50,709 --> 00:00:52,808
同比暴涨近三倍

25
00:00:52,808 --> 00:00:54,548
环比增长75%

26
00:00:54,548 --> 00:00:57,329
连续第四个季度创历史新高

27
00:00:57,329 --> 00:01:01,270
每股收益高达12.2美元

28
00:01:01,270 --> 00:01:05,950
毛利率直接干到75%

29
00:01:05,950 --> 00:01:07,329
接近翻倍

30
00:01:07,329 --> 00:01:10,739
创历史这个峰值

31
00:01:10,739 --> 00:01:13,140
可能很多家人们对这个数据没概念

32
00:01:13,140 --> 00:01:14,340
我就给大家讲一下啊

33
00:01:14,340 --> 00:01:15,459
举个例子你就知道了

34
00:01:15,459 --> 00:01:18,799
去年美光没A股收益还只是个位数啊

35
00:01:18,799 --> 00:01:20,700
那些直接冲到两位数

36
00:01:20,700 --> 00:01:22,599
12块二美元啊

37
00:01:22,599 --> 00:01:26,209
那毛利率74.9%是什么概念

38
00:01:26,209 --> 00:01:29,370
就意味着每卖出100美元的产品

39
00:01:29,370 --> 00:01:31,689
净赚75美元了

40
00:01:31,689 --> 00:01:35,069
那比很多的我们奢侈品的毛利率还要高

41
00:01:35,069 --> 00:01:36,170
更恐怖的啊

42
00:01:36,170 --> 00:01:38,870
就是它的核心的DRAM业务啊

43
00:01:38,870 --> 00:01:42,239
营收188亿美元

44
00:01:42,239 --> 00:01:45,019
同比涨到了207%

45
00:01:45,019 --> 00:01:49,620
可以说定价还比暴涨了65%

46
00:01:49,620 --> 00:01:54,459
所以呢我们的这个最核心的AI沙道就是HBM

47
00:01:54,459 --> 00:01:56,560
也就是呃王仁勋说啊

48
00:01:56,560 --> 00:01:59,750
只要这个美国生产多少HBA

49
00:01:59,750 --> 00:02:01,939
那英伟达都包了啊

50
00:02:01,939 --> 00:02:06,739
hp m也就是AI大模型训练必需的高带宽内存

51
00:02:06,739 --> 00:02:08,900
镁光的HBM4啊

52
00:02:08,900 --> 00:02:10,189
已经批量出货

53
00:02:10,189 --> 00:02:13,810
专为什么英伟达的卢比芯片设计

54
00:02:13,810 --> 00:02:15,669
所以离开了美光

55
00:02:15,669 --> 00:02:16,389
毫无疑问

56
00:02:16,389 --> 00:02:19,330
那么英伟达我们专那AI也玩不转

57
00:02:19,330 --> 00:02:21,379
所以家人们呢就是美观

58
00:02:21,379 --> 00:02:23,819
非常的炸裂的一个财报啊

59
00:02:23,819 --> 00:02:27,180
财报出以后已经下跌了将近七个点了啊

60
00:02:27,180 --> 00:02:31,610
从四百五一路跌到了现在的390呃

61
00:02:31,610 --> 00:02:33,110
这里要给大家讲清楚啊

62
00:02:33,110 --> 00:02:34,389
美光暴跌啊

63
00:02:34,389 --> 00:02:38,599
其实而不是因为业绩差差差是这个业绩太好

64
00:02:38,599 --> 00:02:40,840
就说白了就是预期博弈啊

65
00:02:40,840 --> 00:02:42,159
这个预期拉满了

66
00:02:42,159 --> 00:02:43,319
所以基本面的恶化

67
00:02:43,319 --> 00:02:44,879
大家一定要明白第一个核心原因

68
00:02:44,879 --> 00:02:46,240
那就是一个资本开支了啊

69
00:02:46,240 --> 00:02:48,199
市场担忧这个共过于求

70
00:02:48,199 --> 00:02:49,259
那美国也宣布

71
00:02:49,259 --> 00:02:52,020
26年他这个财年的这个资本支出

72
00:02:52,020 --> 00:02:54,300
将超过250亿美元

73
00:02:54,300 --> 00:02:57,099
27年财年还要再增加100亿美元以上啊

74
00:02:57,099 --> 00:02:59,039
用来建厂房破产能

75
00:02:59,039 --> 00:03:01,259
大家都担心现在的存储芯片缺货

76
00:03:01,259 --> 00:03:02,379
高价是暂时的

77
00:03:02,379 --> 00:03:06,520
没光这些高产能释放供应会过剩

78
00:03:06,520 --> 00:03:07,599
价格会暴跌

79
00:03:07,599 --> 00:03:08,800
家人们那这种担忧啊

80
00:03:08,800 --> 00:03:10,479
我觉得也是过滤的啊

81
00:03:10,479 --> 00:03:12,960
首先呢第一点呢我就给大家讲讲啊

82
00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,680
AI驱动的结构性机会啊

83
00:03:14,680 --> 00:03:16,539
不是周期性的短期反弹啊

84
00:03:16,539 --> 00:03:17,659
大家一定要记住啊

85
00:03:17,659 --> 00:03:18,620
AI向前发展

86
00:03:18,620 --> 00:03:21,099
那离不开存储的那英英伟达

87
00:03:21,099 --> 00:03:22,159
它生产的芯片

88
00:03:22,159 --> 00:03:24,770
建立这种我们的这个呃算力呃

89
00:03:24,770 --> 00:03:29,000
AI数据中心更离不开这个我们的美光的内存

90
00:03:29,000 --> 00:03:29,759
而且美观

91
00:03:29,759 --> 00:03:32,879
作为全球三大存储巨头之一

92
00:03:32,879 --> 00:03:35,689
AI赛道的核心顶尖玩家

93
00:03:35,689 --> 00:03:36,689
大家也知道啊

94
00:03:36,689 --> 00:03:39,979
现在的这个存储芯片行业供应非常紧张啊

95
00:03:39,979 --> 00:03:43,219
这种局势已经可以说是要持续到27年的

96
00:03:43,219 --> 00:03:46,969
因为美光线只能满足50%的客户

97
00:03:46,969 --> 00:03:48,729
2/3的需求

98
00:03:48,729 --> 00:03:50,050
订单排期饱满

99
00:03:50,050 --> 00:03:52,900
甚至签订了首份5年战略客户协议啊

100
00:03:52,900 --> 00:03:53,900
锁定长期需求

101
00:03:53,900 --> 00:03:56,300
AI对存储的需求是结构性的

102
00:03:56,300 --> 00:04:00,719
大家知道芯片它只负责它的运算计算这关

103
00:04:00,719 --> 00:04:02,870
但是存储重不重要

104
00:04:02,870 --> 00:04:03,349
很重要

105
00:04:03,349 --> 00:04:05,830
AI训练出来成果怎么保存

106
00:04:05,830 --> 00:04:06,789
如果有内存

107
00:04:06,789 --> 00:04:11,050
那么这个芯片训练生产的出来的这个数据成果

108
00:04:11,050 --> 00:04:12,330
它就能够保存

109
00:04:12,330 --> 00:04:14,879
而且是站在这些保存的成果基础上

110
00:04:14,879 --> 00:04:16,740
不断的进行的一个训练

111
00:04:16,740 --> 00:04:17,819
不断的更新迭代

112
00:04:17,819 --> 00:04:19,009
所以家人们我说了啊

113
00:04:19,009 --> 00:04:21,610
没有AI的这个镁光的存储

114
00:04:21,610 --> 00:04:25,350
那AI那就是可以说它就是不可能进步

115
00:04:25,350 --> 00:04:27,110
它就是记不住

116
00:04:27,110 --> 00:04:28,310
而且AI服务器啊

117
00:04:28,310 --> 00:04:30,670
人形机人未来的这样的大量的需求

118
00:04:30,670 --> 00:04:33,459
都会趋势拉动这个存储的需求啊

119
00:04:33,459 --> 00:04:35,019
这不是短期封口啊

120
00:04:35,019 --> 00:04:36,740
而是长期的一个趋势

121
00:04:36,740 --> 00:04:37,939
所以这次的暴跌啊

122
00:04:37,939 --> 00:04:39,040
没有基本面恶化

123
00:04:39,040 --> 00:04:40,139
没有业绩不允许

124
00:04:40,139 --> 00:04:42,740
纯粹是资金获利了结和情绪博弈

125
00:04:42,740 --> 00:04:45,480
主力借资本开增加这个利空

126
00:04:45,480 --> 00:04:47,839
起初那些最高的散户不坚定的筹码

127
00:04:47,839 --> 00:04:49,519
只要AI需求不降温

128
00:04:49,519 --> 00:04:52,860
美观还会回到这个上升趋势

129
00:04:52,860 --> 00:04:53,699
第二点啊

130
00:04:53,699 --> 00:04:56,040
好我们再回到这个技术面啊

131
00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,720
家人们毫无疑问从这个趋势上

132
00:04:58,720 --> 00:04:59,459
那我们美观

133
00:04:59,459 --> 00:05:00,620
其实它是现什么

134
00:05:00,620 --> 00:05:02,019
还是一个重心上移

135
00:05:02,019 --> 00:05:02,699
趋势向上

136
00:05:02,699 --> 00:05:04,180
它不趋势性反转好

137
00:05:04,180 --> 00:05:05,579
那我们再看一下镁光

138
00:05:05,579 --> 00:05:07,459
它的支撑区间在哪

139
00:05:07,459 --> 00:05:08,959
前期的镁光的支撑

140
00:05:08,959 --> 00:05:12,480
它就在什么380~3901线啊

141
00:05:12,480 --> 00:05:17,399
所以家人们镁光只要调整了390~380

142
00:05:17,399 --> 00:05:18,540
家人们企稳

143
00:05:18,540 --> 00:05:21,060
那么大家们可以加一个一成仓

144
00:05:21,060 --> 00:05:22,500
或者你保险一点的话

145
00:05:22,500 --> 00:05:23,500
你可以等它突破

146
00:05:23,500 --> 00:05:23,899
对不对

147
00:05:23,899 --> 00:05:28,000
往上突破这个400以后再可以买一成仓

148
00:05:28,000 --> 00:05:29,800
第一个木位480哈

149
00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:31,920
而且符合感呢给那就确定啊

150
00:05:31,920 --> 00:05:35,249
就是镁光额的上涨的概率很大的原因

151
00:05:35,249 --> 00:05:38,028
首先啊现在这个从我们的技术面上啊

152
00:05:38,028 --> 00:05:40,028
大家知道我会经常给大家讲过啊

153
00:05:40,028 --> 00:05:43,189
这个我们的中继的这个平台的原理

154
00:05:43,189 --> 00:05:43,829
大家记得吗

155
00:05:43,829 --> 00:05:46,930
这个上涨当中出现一个区间的一个震荡

156
00:05:46,930 --> 00:05:49,459
它就是一个什么中继是吧

157
00:05:49,459 --> 00:05:51,540
出现中继还要再涨

158
00:05:51,540 --> 00:05:53,279
中继不是趋势的结束

159
00:05:53,279 --> 00:05:56,060
而是中途的上涨的

160
00:05:56,060 --> 00:05:57,620
他前进的一个休息站

161
00:05:57,620 --> 00:06:00,100
对美光家门看到符合给到的策略啊

162
00:06:00,100 --> 00:06:00,980
有的家门啊

163
00:06:00,980 --> 00:06:03,790
那安心持有而没有的拿你仓位加门

共 1 条，按点赞数排序。

采集完成，该视频无弹幕