【视野环球财经】20260505美股 AMD先跌再顶格暴涨！NVDA偷偷完美修复！PLTR：INTC你可真眼熟！广度极端后的短中期回报！

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大家好

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欢迎回到视野

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环球财经

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我是right now

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现在是美东时间26年5月5号

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周二晚上的07:55分呃

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大家久等了啊

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昨天相当的不好意思呃

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开天窗呢不在咱们的节目的预期之中

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因为个人的事务处理有一点晚啊

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人在外边是确实没法按时录节目

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呃

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所以呢昨天的美东时间的七点左右啊

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我是在社区里边发了个帖子通知大家呢

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说这个视频要暂停一次啊

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大家就别等了

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呃不过估计呢是这个YOUTUBE的帖子推送通知啊

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不像视频那么及时

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他甚至有不推送的情况啊

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就你收不到推送

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所以需要大家手动点开查看

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很多朋友呢可能就没有看到那个通知

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有一些担心我啊

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还还有在之前的视频下留言的啊

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关心我是不是出了什么事儿

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非常抱歉啊

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让大家操心了

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昨天确实是个意外节目

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停更一期呢

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跑出了期权压注68%的大概率范围啊

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走了一个小概率

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不过一切安好

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多谢记挂

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如果以后超时没有更新

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大家记得到咱们的频道主页

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这个社区下边去查看一下啊

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看看有没有最新的通知好

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那咱们呢就开始今天的这个行情呃

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首先我把周末呢做一个承上启下啊

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稍微的过一下周末的情况呃

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那么在周末的时候啊

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实际上呢是霍尔木兹海峡的紧张情绪有所升温

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呃阿联酋呢也遭到了袭击

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所以油价是又飙到了100亿的上方啊

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今天开始又有一些回落

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那么昨天的时候

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其实对油价和经济周期更加敏感的道指啊

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跌幅是比较大的啊

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昨天是跌了超过1%

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不过今天呢双方表现得非常的克制

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美国和伊朗呃

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都认为呢目前的停火协议还是有效的啊

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尽管有一些小的摩擦

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另外呢呃美国方面也指出说啊

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近期的行动仍旧没有达到

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恢复大规模军事行动的门槛啊

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这个就有助于缓解市场情绪

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所以今天大家看到四大指数是全部上涨呃

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而且呢是除了道指之外啊

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几个大的指数

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全部都是创下了收盘价的历史新高

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呃不过这个霍尔木兹海峡的风险仍旧是存在的

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呃有报道说呢

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如果敌对行动再次爆发

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美国和以色列已经确定了

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伊朗能源基础设施的打击目标

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尽管总统川普说啊

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他表示啊

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我不希望恢复全面的冲突啊

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但是呢这个军事打击的压力选项

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还是要放在桌面上

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只有这样呢

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后面的谈判才能够有筹码好额

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然后呢接下来的时间我就想讲一下

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关于一些呃经济数据啊

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快速的过一下

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然后就把今天一些重要的个股和大家讲一讲

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包括像MD财报后的暴涨

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还有英伟达的部长啊

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以及呢有一只股票英特尔呢最近一直在涨

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可以把这几个事情给大家都结合起来说一下

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同时让大家看一下

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现在的市场广度到底是一个什么样的问题

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以及市场广多

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当出现这个极端情况之后啊

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后面的短期中期长期的这个走势

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根据历史统计啊

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目前看起来呢是有一些明显的差异好

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那咱们就开始说一下今天的数据

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今天呢主要是有三个数据

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第一个呢是美国的4月份的ISM的服务业

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PMI啊

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是从54小降到了53.6

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这个降幅呢是呃这个比预期的还要多一点啊

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预期是53.7

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另外呢就业指数升到了48

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低于预期的48.3

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高于前值的45.2

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价格指数维持在70.7啊

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这个价格低于预期的73.7

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商业活动指数升到了55.9

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那么前值是53.9

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但是新订单指数下滑到了53.5

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预期呢是57.3

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前值是60.6

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另外供应商交货量和新出口订单是环比增长

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而库存和积压订单呢有所下降

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那么所有的指标目前仍旧维持在50的上方啊

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就是荣枯线的上方呢代表还在扩张

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呃

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不过呢市场分析认为啊

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最近的几个经济指标表明

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能源价格冲击将在未来的几个季度

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逐步反映在核心通胀上

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它会使核心PCEE在今年大部分的时间

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都维持在3%左右啊

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所以这一块通胀对于美联储来讲

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是一个比较棘手的问题

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好还有一个数据呢是3月的新屋销售啊

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新屋销售的这个增长了7.4%

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到了68.2万套

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高于预期的65万套

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3月份新销售的三个月的值呢

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就是这个值尽管有所上升啊

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但是截止到呃

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3月份的三个月的平均值仍旧是下滑

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到了2022年底以来的最低水平

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还有一个职位空缺

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美国3月份的职位空缺量呢

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是从2月份的692.25万

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然后是这个降到了686.6万啊

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这个是修正过的啊

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这个上面没有显示

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其实他是修正过的

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那么是基本符合之前的687万的预测

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职位空缺呢是从4.2%

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降到了4.1%

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离职率从1.9%小幅上升到了2%

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总体而言

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这个报告表明了劳动力需求仍在缓慢的降温

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而不是那种急剧的变化

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那么这个对于美联储来讲

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是一个比较不错的消息啊

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因为他们可以继续专注于通胀

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而不需要立即面临劳动力市场方面的压力

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因为美联储主要是双重任务嘛对吧

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第一个是通胀啊

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第一个是通胀

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第二个是就业啊

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这是他的两个最大的目标

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至少在目前的旧有的美联储的政策框架下

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是这样的啊

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未来会不会大幅的变动美联储的政策框架啊

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会不会呃加入更多的其他的选项

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看看他怎么去表态好

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这个呢就是今天的经济数据

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接下来我们开始讲解个股

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好首先给大家看一下AMD的财报啊

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额MD先给大家看一下他财额

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在发布财报之后的股价走势

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这是一个盘后的分时图啊

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大家可以看到盘后呢他是先跌对吧

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跌了差不多接近四个点

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然后突然间就暴涨啊

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第一次拉升了六个点

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随后呢

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直接拉到了这个目前的410块钱左右啊

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还在这里波动

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这个涨幅呢非常的大啊

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而且很明显

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如果以今天这个价格到周五去收盘

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它是会超出它的68%的波动范围的啊

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就是走了一个小概率的区间

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要比之前市场压住的更多

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但是呢由于今天还早啊

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他这个期权市场的结算是在周五

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所以这中间呢仍旧有回旋余地

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好我们看一下他的财报啊

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为什么这么好

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AMD呢是第一财季的财报

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每股收益是1.37

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超过预期的1.29

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营收是102.5亿

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高于预期的98.9亿

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数据中心这边是增长非常的快啊

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达到了57.8亿

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同比增长57%

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高于之前预期的56.1亿

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游戏收入呢是7.2亿

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同比增长11%

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高于之前预期的6.68亿

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还有一个是客户收入是28.9亿

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同比增长26%

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高于预期的27.3亿

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还有就是自由现金流是25.7亿

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而去年同期呢是7.27亿

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而预期是23.5亿

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那么这一块财务指标都非常的健康呃

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看一下他的前瞻啊

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其实呃整个的拉升主要是他发前瞻啊

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他的前瞻上面透露的信息呢就更加乐观

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预计二季度营收是112亿

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高于预期的105.2亿

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最主要的增长来源仍旧是数据中心业务啊

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是大的这个爆发期好

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那么说这个价格涨了以后合不合理呢

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我们来看一下它的前端估值以及目前的技术面

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呃首先呢我们还是基于呃这个呃

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五这个五三十到40倍啊

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30~40倍

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我们去看一下呃

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其实30~40倍

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我们之前给过两套

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这两套都是最新更新的啊

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之前由于低位啊

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我们说给一个底线

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就是知道他如果增速有所下滑以后

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底线在哪里啊

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如果能增速能维持甚至能提升

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那他的上限在哪里

221
00:09:19,480 --> 00:09:23,429
那么现在这一次呢很明显是提高了前瞻

222
00:09:23,429 --> 00:09:27,250
那么26年如果按照30~40倍

223
00:09:27,250 --> 00:09:29,309
是上限272

224
00:09:29,309 --> 00:09:33,029
但现在的价格已经是到了26年的5月份了啊

225
00:09:33,029 --> 00:09:35,980
所以按照市场通常炒作

226
00:09:35,980 --> 00:09:38,360
6~12个月月的预期来看

227
00:09:38,360 --> 00:09:42,139
那么现在的底极限可以炒到27年的56月份

228
00:09:42,139 --> 00:09:46,350
也就是可以看到27年的前瞻估值的至少中间

229
00:09:46,350 --> 00:09:48,370
那么你也可以网上去看

230
00:09:48,370 --> 00:09:53,379
网上27年12月的414就是顶格啊

231
00:09:53,379 --> 00:09:55,159
就是按照目前的40倍定格

232
00:09:55,159 --> 00:09:58,460
而且这个预期是27年12月啊

233
00:09:58,460 --> 00:09:59,059
大家看一下

234
00:09:59,059 --> 00:10:01,549
不是26年已经是计价了

235
00:10:01,549 --> 00:10:03,899
27年的增长的情况

236
00:10:03,899 --> 00:10:06,360
除非后面他继续提升

237
00:10:06,360 --> 00:10:09,100
就跟之前在前几年看到的英伟达一样对吧

238
00:10:09,100 --> 00:10:10,789
英伟达不是每一次出来以后

239
00:10:10,789 --> 00:10:12,029
它都继续提升啊

240
00:10:12,029 --> 00:10:15,450
这样大家往上的空间才有更高的这个估值

241
00:10:15,450 --> 00:10:16,149
想象力嘛

242
00:10:16,149 --> 00:10:19,279
所以现在即截止到今天为止

243
00:10:19,279 --> 00:10:20,940
它的盘后的涨幅

244
00:10:20,940 --> 00:10:24,360
完全反映了全年27年的业绩啊

245
00:10:24,360 --> 00:10:26,039
这是今天的一个暴涨啊

246
00:10:26,039 --> 00:10:27,519
涨到了400呃

247
00:10:27,519 --> 00:10:29,259
这个084百一左右

248
00:10:29,259 --> 00:10:31,600
所以今天我的标题上也写的是暴涨

249
00:10:31,600 --> 00:10:33,769
顶格主的指就是这个啊

250
00:10:33,769 --> 00:10:35,549
这是从基本面上来看

251
00:10:35,549 --> 00:10:38,289
但是你要说从噶空的角度

252
00:10:38,289 --> 00:10:41,000
因为我知道有很多朋友呢其实在上边呃

253
00:10:41,000 --> 00:10:43,919
是有在一些地方想去做空英伟达的啊

254
00:10:43,919 --> 00:10:45,559
做空AMD的对吧

255
00:10:45,559 --> 00:10:46,879
包括有这种

256
00:10:46,879 --> 00:10:49,629
还有一一部分朋友的这个这个

257
00:10:49,629 --> 00:10:51,409
这个sell call在上方

258
00:10:51,409 --> 00:10:55,690
所以这种情况呢有一定程度的被噶啊

259
00:10:55,690 --> 00:10:56,909
被噶完以后呢

260
00:10:56,909 --> 00:10:59,029
那这个就属于资金流向的事情

261
00:10:59,029 --> 00:10:59,889
他能跑多远

262
00:10:59,889 --> 00:11:01,190
咱们就不做判断了啊

263
00:11:01,190 --> 00:11:02,599
我们这里只谈基本面

264
00:11:02,599 --> 00:11:05,899
因为技术面的这种短期的流动很多的

265
00:11:05,899 --> 00:11:07,899
包括历史上我们看到的很多股票

266
00:11:07,899 --> 00:11:09,980
它没有什么基本面没有任何变化

267
00:11:09,980 --> 00:11:11,759
甚至一份普通的财报之后

268
00:11:11,759 --> 00:11:14,200
但是由于可能一个一笔大资金的异动

269
00:11:14,200 --> 00:11:16,159
导致它暴涨暴跌的情况发生

270
00:11:16,159 --> 00:11:17,440
这种情况也很常见啊

271
00:11:17,440 --> 00:11:20,469
所以呃技术面的事情就是资金流向

272
00:11:20,469 --> 00:11:21,948
短线的这个判断不了

273
00:11:21,948 --> 00:11:25,759
但是呢从基本面上414是顶格位啊

274
00:11:25,759 --> 00:11:28,360
告诉大家414等前端估值如果再往上

275
00:11:28,360 --> 00:11:30,080
肯定是涉嫌高估的啊

276
00:11:30,080 --> 00:11:30,960
再怎么算

277
00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:32,639
他也是涉嫌高估的啊

278
00:11:32,639 --> 00:11:35,320
高估那个情况你怎么去理解它呢

279
00:11:35,320 --> 00:11:37,360
第一你说我继续看好不动

280
00:11:37,360 --> 00:11:38,919
那你就是往后拿嘛

281
00:11:38,919 --> 00:11:41,940
随着时间自然力自然年历往后走

282
00:11:41,940 --> 00:11:42,860
他就不高估了

283
00:11:42,860 --> 00:11:44,019
比方说到了27年

284
00:11:44,019 --> 00:11:45,820
他能够前瞻28年的业绩的时候

285
00:11:45,820 --> 00:11:46,940
这个上限肯定有提升

286
00:11:46,940 --> 00:11:48,220
那他就不高了对吧

287
00:11:48,220 --> 00:11:49,740
但是从现在到27年

288
00:11:49,740 --> 00:11:51,240
这之间高估的部分

289
00:11:51,240 --> 00:11:53,440
未来上去有人会卖掉

290
00:11:53,440 --> 00:11:55,480
跌下来这一部分你承不承受

291
00:11:55,480 --> 00:11:56,480
你如果不承受

292
00:11:56,480 --> 00:11:57,159
没所谓

293
00:11:57,159 --> 00:11:59,000
这个高点不是历史高点对吧

294
00:11:59,000 --> 00:11:59,720
它不是历史高点

295
00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:00,440
你可以继续拿

296
00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:02,519
拿一年半之后它就上去了

297
00:12:02,519 --> 00:12:05,659
但你面临的风险就是像英伟达一样对吧

298
00:12:05,659 --> 00:12:07,409
他已经大半年没动了啊

299
00:12:07,409 --> 00:12:08,570
他之前他就是没动

300
00:12:08,570 --> 00:12:09,330
停在那里

301
00:12:09,330 --> 00:12:10,289
你看着别人涨

302
00:12:10,289 --> 00:12:11,509
你心里难受吧对吧

303
00:12:11,509 --> 00:12:13,240
所以你心里不难受

304
00:12:13,240 --> 00:12:14,139
那就无所谓啊

305
00:12:14,139 --> 00:12:15,259
所以逻辑就在这里

306
00:12:15,259 --> 00:12:16,929
你根据自然力来看

307
00:12:16,929 --> 00:12:18,169
愿意滚动的滚动

308
00:12:18,169 --> 00:12:19,649
不愿意滚动的选择常识嘛

309
00:12:19,649 --> 00:12:21,090
你再拿拿上它两年

310
00:12:21,090 --> 00:12:22,720
这个地方肯定就不是高点啊

311
00:12:22,720 --> 00:12:25,799
所以这是对他的一个基本情况的判断

312
00:12:26,919 --> 00:12:30,340
好呃然后我们说完它之后呢

313
00:12:30,340 --> 00:12:31,740
呃技术面给大家也看一下

314
00:12:31,740 --> 00:12:32,580
我这里做了更新

315
00:12:32,580 --> 00:12:36,179
大家可以看到其实斜率非常的高陡峭

316
00:12:36,179 --> 00:12:37,820
极度陡峭啊

317
00:12:37,820 --> 00:12:39,860
极度陡峭这种情况

318
00:12:39,860 --> 00:12:42,240
那像这中间这一段啊

319
00:12:42,240 --> 00:12:44,759
就是从220到300多的

320
00:12:44,759 --> 00:12:49,149
这一段几乎呢是属于呃没有什么筹码交换的啊

321
00:12:49,149 --> 00:12:49,950
直接上去的

322
00:12:49,950 --> 00:12:52,090
所以呢没有筹码交换上去

323
00:12:52,090 --> 00:12:54,070
未来如果出现风险回撤

324
00:12:54,070 --> 00:12:55,409
那也没有筹码交换的位置

325
00:12:55,409 --> 00:12:56,409
会直接下来呃

326
00:12:56,409 --> 00:12:57,720
一一个逻辑啊

327
00:12:57,720 --> 00:12:59,519
其实大家看一些暴涨股票

328
00:12:59,519 --> 00:13:02,120
很多的走势差不多都这么个情况啊

329
00:13:02,120 --> 00:13:05,679
好呃技术面上方有个335~348的中压力

330
00:13:05,679 --> 00:13:07,919
而是最近形成的盘后涨了这么多呢

331
00:13:07,919 --> 00:13:09,559
这个上面是没有什么技术面的啊

332
00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:10,159
这不存在

333
00:13:10,159 --> 00:13:12,230
因为第一天盘后的上涨

334
00:13:12,230 --> 00:13:14,769
未来得横向走几天才知道怎么样啊

335
00:13:14,769 --> 00:13:18,500
所以这是最新的技术面较强的位置

336
00:13:18,500 --> 00:13:21,320
335~348已经算是较强的了啊

337
00:13:21,320 --> 00:13:24,909
再往下就比较的远好额

338
00:13:24,909 --> 00:13:28,029
然后讲完AMD就不得不说一下

339
00:13:28,029 --> 00:13:31,190
他的另外另外一个老大哥英伟达

340
00:13:32,659 --> 00:13:34,580
英伟达呢大家看到这个走势

341
00:13:34,580 --> 00:13:38,759
说心里边你是不是非常的酸楚啊哈哈

342
00:13:38,759 --> 00:13:40,679
其实这个对我个人来讲啊

343
00:13:40,679 --> 00:13:42,639
我看到这个走势我挺开心的

344
00:13:42,639 --> 00:13:44,539
为什么大家知道吗

345
00:13:44,539 --> 00:13:46,460
不是说我加仓我开心啊

346
00:13:46,460 --> 00:13:47,340
我没有加仓啊

347
00:13:47,340 --> 00:13:49,779
我仓位还是持有那么多好吧

348
00:13:49,779 --> 00:13:51,340
我是本来要在低位加的

349
00:13:51,340 --> 00:13:52,340
他没有低位给我

350
00:13:52,340 --> 00:13:53,059
我就没加

351
00:13:53,059 --> 00:13:55,639
所以上方我仍旧是一个10%的仓位

352
00:13:55,639 --> 00:13:57,740
79.64的一个持仓成本

353
00:13:57,740 --> 00:13:59,059
为什么说看着它下跌

354
00:13:59,059 --> 00:14:00,840
我还开心呢

355
00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:02,679
英伟达这波下跌

356
00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:03,600
它跌到的位置

357
00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:04,480
大家看一下在哪里

358
00:14:04,480 --> 00:14:06,139
跌到了196对吧

359
00:14:06,139 --> 00:14:08,139
这个是之前一个突破的位置

360
00:14:08,139 --> 00:14:08,860
大家还记得吗

361
00:14:08,860 --> 00:14:09,980
我们在讲他突破的时候

362
00:14:09,980 --> 00:14:11,259
他突破了这个平台

363
00:14:11,259 --> 00:14:14,159
其实横了很久大半年时间

364
00:14:14,600 --> 00:14:17,500
而且他这个下跌最近持续在缩量

365
00:14:17,500 --> 00:14:19,349
成交量在萎缩啊

366
00:14:19,349 --> 00:14:22,328
这种走势是非常好的

367
00:14:22,328 --> 00:14:25,409
我们叫做指标修复走势

368
00:14:25,409 --> 00:14:30,230
已经完全的修复了之前的超买加顶背离

369
00:14:30,230 --> 00:14:35,289
而且在大结构上仍旧维持着上行结构

370
00:14:35,690 --> 00:14:38,779
这个回撤是机会啊

371
00:14:38,779 --> 00:14:40,039
这个回撤是机会

372
00:14:40,039 --> 00:14:41,600
不知道大家能不能理解这个位置啊

373
00:14:41,600 --> 00:14:44,240
因为以前我们说他被拉的太一下

374
00:14:44,240 --> 00:14:45,120
涨太多了以后

375
00:14:45,120 --> 00:14:48,580
超买家顶背离上方的空间早往上走也是跌

376
00:14:48,580 --> 00:14:49,980
还不如早点跌下来

377
00:14:49,980 --> 00:14:51,059
早点跌下来干嘛

378
00:14:51,059 --> 00:14:52,220
蓄力啊

379
00:14:52,220 --> 00:14:54,399
蓄力之后才能走得稳

380
00:14:54,399 --> 00:14:55,759
走得好好吧

381
00:14:55,759 --> 00:14:59,149
所以这个其实是一个好事情

382
00:14:59,149 --> 00:15:01,529
还有一件事情就是大家说

383
00:15:01,529 --> 00:15:03,350
那英伟达什么时候涨呢

384
00:15:04,509 --> 00:15:07,149
我给大家看个图表啊

385
00:15:08,539 --> 00:15:09,460
英伟达呢

386
00:15:09,460 --> 00:15:10,220
现在啊

387
00:15:10,220 --> 00:15:15,379
这是他和SMH的一个走势的一个缩略图啊

388
00:15:15,379 --> 00:15:20,379
那么其实英伟达呢和SMMH的背离

389
00:15:20,379 --> 00:15:24,350
已经是达到了2024年初的水平

390
00:15:24,350 --> 00:15:25,350
大家可以看到

391
00:15:25,350 --> 00:15:29,830
以前的英伟达和SMH几乎是极少出现贝利

392
00:15:29,830 --> 00:15:32,110
因为它是其中重要的一支成分股

393
00:15:32,110 --> 00:15:36,220
那么这一次很明显里边其他的成分股在涨

394
00:15:36,220 --> 00:15:38,720
英伟达在恒对吧小涨

395
00:15:38,720 --> 00:15:42,559
所以就造成了这种极端背离的情况

396
00:15:42,559 --> 00:15:44,720
那么这种背离

397
00:15:45,000 --> 00:15:49,299
那么有两个可能性就是啊导致这种情况的发生

398
00:15:49,299 --> 00:15:51,669
第一个就是市场呢

399
00:15:51,669 --> 00:15:54,750
总体啊我们说资金在短期内是有限的啊

400
00:15:54,750 --> 00:15:57,629
尽管美股市场的资金随着全球股市的膨胀

401
00:15:57,629 --> 00:15:58,929
然后通胀的上升

402
00:15:58,929 --> 00:16:00,289
货币的超发等等

403
00:16:00,289 --> 00:16:02,409
它会有逐渐一个增长的过程

404
00:16:02,409 --> 00:16:06,610
但是短期的这个资金它不会一下多出来很多啊

405
00:16:06,610 --> 00:16:09,549
所以短期资金有限的情况下

406
00:16:09,549 --> 00:16:10,809
市场在炒

407
00:16:10,809 --> 00:16:16,159
比如说像更加强势的AMDMU等等啊

408
00:16:16,159 --> 00:16:18,019
这些市值也更小

409
00:16:18,019 --> 00:16:20,559
需要的资金推动量更小的股票上

410
00:16:20,559 --> 00:16:22,389
这些半导体上在炒他们

411
00:16:22,389 --> 00:16:24,629
那么资金不就跑那边去了吗

412
00:16:24,629 --> 00:16:24,830
对吧

413
00:16:24,830 --> 00:16:26,549
你英伟达盘子这么大

414
00:16:26,549 --> 00:16:28,549
你怎么让他一天涨10%呢对吧

415
00:16:28,549 --> 00:16:29,470
现在比较难吗

416
00:16:29,470 --> 00:16:31,649
没有重大利好的情况下好

417
00:16:31,649 --> 00:16:33,629
这是第一种情况可能性啊

418
00:16:33,629 --> 00:16:35,679
那么第二个情况是什么呢

419
00:16:35,679 --> 00:16:38,159
英伟达你说它很差吗

420
00:16:38,159 --> 00:16:38,720
它不差

421
00:16:38,720 --> 00:16:39,899
业绩也不差对吧

422
00:16:39,899 --> 00:16:40,870
需求也不差

423
00:16:40,870 --> 00:16:42,309
你说他是技术落后了吗

424
00:16:42,309 --> 00:16:43,070
他都没落后

425
00:16:43,070 --> 00:16:44,889
他都是这个龙头地位

426
00:16:44,889 --> 00:16:47,220
可它为什么就股价不动呢

427
00:16:47,220 --> 00:16:50,179
有没有可能是半导体的前景出现问题了

428
00:16:50,179 --> 00:16:52,700
现在市场实际上只是想炒完那一些

429
00:16:52,700 --> 00:16:53,659
最后就不炒了呢

430
00:16:53,659 --> 00:16:54,419
就跑了呢

431
00:16:54,419 --> 00:16:55,840
所以英伟达干脆也别买

432
00:16:55,840 --> 00:16:56,759
有没有可能呢

433
00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:02,009
其实啊这种情况呢我们说概率比较低

434
00:17:02,009 --> 00:17:03,970
就是英伟达不涨

435
00:17:03,970 --> 00:17:05,150
其它在暴涨

436
00:17:05,150 --> 00:17:08,549
是不是英伟达反映了一些信息

437
00:17:08,549 --> 00:17:11,799
在其他的公司上没有定价

438
00:17:12,319 --> 00:17:14,480
从今天的AMD的财报

439
00:17:14,480 --> 00:17:17,569
还有上周的多个半导体的财报看

440
00:17:17,569 --> 00:17:21,009
我认为半导体的前景有问题的

441
00:17:21,009 --> 00:17:23,650
这种可能性概率很低啊

442
00:17:23,650 --> 00:17:25,980
这首先是我们说一个中长期前景啊

443
00:17:25,980 --> 00:17:27,279
概率比较低

444
00:17:27,279 --> 00:17:31,029
但是炒过头他确实是个问题

445
00:17:31,029 --> 00:17:33,029
为什么说中长期前景概率低呢

446
00:17:33,029 --> 00:17:36,150
因为今年四大科技的资本支出上调了嘛

447
00:17:36,150 --> 00:17:38,269
明年肯定比今年还是有增长

448
00:17:38,269 --> 00:17:39,430
无非是增速下滑

449
00:17:39,430 --> 00:17:41,410
今年7500亿

450
00:17:41,410 --> 00:17:42,190
7900亿

451
00:17:42,190 --> 00:17:45,289
明年可能会上升到1.1万亿到1.2万亿

452
00:17:45,289 --> 00:17:47,049
但是增速是在放缓的啊

453
00:17:47,049 --> 00:17:48,269
我们说的是这个问题啊

454
00:17:48,269 --> 00:17:52,420
所以对于他们的这个呃上下游的这个链

455
00:17:52,420 --> 00:17:55,859
上的这几个相关的卖铲子的来讲

456
00:17:55,859 --> 00:17:58,500
他们不存在说前景的问题啊

457
00:17:58,500 --> 00:18:01,319
暂时无非就是你炒的多还炒的少

458
00:18:01,319 --> 00:18:03,240
炒的贵还便宜的问题好

459
00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:07,109
所以那么我的判断是什么

460
00:18:07,109 --> 00:18:08,970
我的判断是

461
00:18:08,970 --> 00:18:12,869
英伟达像现在的这个走势是一个很明显的

462
00:18:12,869 --> 00:18:16,480
我认为是一个蓄势等待的走势

463
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:17,859
现在等什么呢

464
00:18:17,859 --> 00:18:22,609
等到其他的半导体资金撤出

465
00:18:22,609 --> 00:18:23,769
炒高了

466
00:18:23,769 --> 00:18:24,829
炒不动了

467
00:18:24,829 --> 00:18:28,880
然后轮回轮动到英伟达呃

468
00:18:28,880 --> 00:18:30,079
这个不能说轮回啊

469
00:18:30,079 --> 00:18:32,500
轮回听起来要去那个孟婆那了对吧

470
00:18:32,500 --> 00:18:33,460
不轮回啊

471
00:18:33,460 --> 00:18:36,859
轮这个叫轮痛回英伟达的机会啊

472
00:18:36,859 --> 00:18:43,089
所以英伟达的仓位如果现在大家有不足的啊

473
00:18:43,089 --> 00:18:46,019
那么前几天冲高的时候

474
00:18:46,019 --> 00:18:48,299
我们也在讲说明确告诉大家别追对吧

475
00:18:48,299 --> 00:18:49,619
那天节目里说大家问我能不能追

476
00:18:49,619 --> 00:18:49,940
能不能买

477
00:18:49,940 --> 00:18:50,500
我说不买

478
00:18:50,500 --> 00:18:51,059
不能

479
00:18:51,059 --> 00:18:53,039
因为当时技术面出问题了嘛

480
00:18:53,039 --> 00:18:57,119
那么这一次回撤缩量回撤啊

481
00:18:57,119 --> 00:19:01,160
仓位不足的自行把握缩量回撤的上车机会啊

482
00:19:01,160 --> 00:19:03,200
175~19696这一线啊

483
00:19:03,200 --> 00:19:06,650
175~19列这两个强制上这两个平台

484
00:19:06,650 --> 00:19:08,269
这是横了半年的平台

485
00:19:08,269 --> 00:19:08,710
好吧

486
00:19:08,710 --> 00:19:09,859
大家自行把握啊

487
00:19:09,859 --> 00:19:10,960
仓位比较大的

488
00:19:10,960 --> 00:19:12,839
比如像我一样仓位也很大的了

489
00:19:12,839 --> 00:19:14,539
那就耐心等待

490
00:19:14,539 --> 00:19:15,630
等待什么呢

491
00:19:15,630 --> 00:19:19,329
等待就像之前的AMD谷歌横盘不涨

492
00:19:19,329 --> 00:19:21,230
让大家耐心等待啊

493
00:19:21,230 --> 00:19:22,430
一模一样好吧

494
00:19:22,430 --> 00:19:24,380
这个逻辑就这么个逻辑啊

495
00:19:24,380 --> 00:19:28,409
好这个的英伟达老大哥也讲完了

496
00:19:28,409 --> 00:19:32,009
接下来呢我想讲一下昨天有一个财报啊

497
00:19:32,009 --> 00:19:35,059
今天呢我给大家更新一下他的前瞻估值

498
00:19:35,299 --> 00:19:39,369
PLTR和他的最新情况呃

499
00:19:39,369 --> 00:19:41,829
PLTI的前天估值财报细节不给大家看了啊

500
00:19:41,829 --> 00:19:43,849
其实还是一个小幅提升对吧

501
00:19:43,849 --> 00:19:46,289
但是呢对于它的股价来讲

502
00:19:46,289 --> 00:19:48,625
小幅提升的幅度不够

503
00:19:48,849 --> 00:19:52,230
26年前瞻基于50倍是67

504
00:19:52,230 --> 00:19:53,410
我们看27年前瞻啊

505
00:19:53,410 --> 00:19:56,249
基于50倍是上限94啊

506
00:19:56,249 --> 00:19:57,969
这是目前的确实的真实情况啊

507
00:19:57,969 --> 00:20:01,388
因为我们以前不在讲它股价太高了太高了

508
00:20:01,388 --> 00:20:03,548
但是呢大家对他的想法呢

509
00:20:03,548 --> 00:20:05,588
总觉得能够一直炒下去啊

510
00:20:05,588 --> 00:20:06,548
不能一直炒下去啊

511
00:20:06,548 --> 00:20:08,308
没有什么股票能只涨不跌的

512
00:20:08,308 --> 00:20:10,200
他想要大幅上涨

513
00:20:10,200 --> 00:20:11,619
第一要资金热度配合

514
00:20:11,619 --> 00:20:13,200
第二要它的业务财报

515
00:20:13,200 --> 00:20:16,539
必须要每次都能大幅超出市场预期的上调

516
00:20:16,539 --> 00:20:19,000
那随着公司的盘子越来越大

517
00:20:19,000 --> 00:20:20,339
它是不可能的事情嘛

518
00:20:20,339 --> 00:20:20,720
对吧

519
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:21,888
哪有东西

520
00:20:21,888 --> 00:20:22,729
你像英伟达

521
00:20:22,729 --> 00:20:23,568
即便业绩这么好

522
00:20:23,568 --> 00:20:24,868
他盘子太大了呀

523
00:20:24,868 --> 00:20:26,449
你你要你要知道这个问题啊

524
00:20:26,449 --> 00:20:28,549
这就是市场就一阵一阵的啊

525
00:20:28,549 --> 00:20:33,640
所以呢他的情况现在下跌了反倒合理了很多啊

526
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:34,680
接近了很多

527
00:20:34,680 --> 00:20:39,170
但是仍旧有到27年12月啊

528
00:20:39,170 --> 00:20:40,289
仍旧有前瞻

529
00:20:40,289 --> 00:20:42,470
PE高达71倍

530
00:20:42,470 --> 00:20:44,589
仍旧不算很便宜对吧

531
00:20:44,589 --> 00:20:45,630
但你看跟谁比

532
00:20:45,630 --> 00:20:46,869
你跟特斯拉比

533
00:20:46,869 --> 00:20:48,109
那便宜太多了对吧

534
00:20:48,109 --> 00:20:50,279
那那你跟呃MD比

535
00:20:50,279 --> 00:20:51,079
那你就贵了

536
00:20:51,079 --> 00:20:54,200
MD上限也才现在才差不多才40倍嘛对吧

537
00:20:54,200 --> 00:20:55,559
到27年12月

538
00:20:55,559 --> 00:20:57,730
那PLTR现在还有71.5倍

539
00:20:57,730 --> 00:20:59,609
那他跟英伟达比就更那什么了

540
00:20:59,609 --> 00:21:00,710
虽然不是同行的啊

541
00:21:00,710 --> 00:21:02,690
我只拿科技股数来简单说一下啊

542
00:21:02,690 --> 00:21:03,630
不是一个行业的

543
00:21:03,630 --> 00:21:05,049
其实也不能完全这么比啊

544
00:21:05,049 --> 00:21:10,859
但是它其实1.5倍很明显仍旧还很高对吧好

545
00:21:10,859 --> 00:21:12,119
那它的技术面在哪里呢

546
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,299
技术面目前是136~144

547
00:21:17,319 --> 00:21:21,210
跌破了下方的强支撑是在121~130

548
00:21:21,210 --> 00:21:22,410
121~130

549
00:21:22,410 --> 00:21:22,930
完了以后

550
00:21:22,930 --> 00:21:25,429
下一个强制声就要去到97下方了

551
00:21:25,429 --> 00:21:27,148
97下方什么地方呢

552
00:21:27,148 --> 00:21:29,588
那就回到了27年前端估值合理的位置了

553
00:21:29,588 --> 00:21:31,749
那它的价格就真的就回归合理了

554
00:21:31,749 --> 00:21:33,229
回归到不高了对吧

555
00:21:33,229 --> 00:21:36,619
所以这是PLTR整体的一个走势

556
00:21:36,619 --> 00:21:39,049
这么差不多也是大半年过来

557
00:21:39,049 --> 00:21:41,289
很多之前在高位去买PITR的朋友

558
00:21:41,289 --> 00:21:44,390
现在可能也逐渐感觉到这个价值回归啊

559
00:21:44,390 --> 00:21:46,240
确实不是一个好事对吧嗯

560
00:21:46,240 --> 00:21:50,000
但是这种事情在美股市场它并不是很罕见的呀

561
00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:51,539
它是历史一直是这样

562
00:21:51,539 --> 00:21:54,869
只不过你在美股市场你看得多了

563
00:21:54,869 --> 00:21:58,569
你就知道这个事情他他就没有什么新鲜事对吧

564
00:21:58,569 --> 00:22:00,130
就就不断的轮回

565
00:22:00,130 --> 00:22:01,609
不断的在重复嘛

566
00:22:01,609 --> 00:22:03,369
很多事情都是好

567
00:22:03,369 --> 00:22:05,630
说到轮回和重复

568
00:22:05,630 --> 00:22:08,608
那它是以前的老的王嘛

569
00:22:08,608 --> 00:22:10,368
只涨不跌之王嘛对吧

570
00:22:10,368 --> 00:22:11,788
叫我们叫他什么王啊

571
00:22:11,788 --> 00:22:13,108
叫他东北王嘛

572
00:22:13,108 --> 00:22:15,160
你看这它什么时候跌过

573
00:22:15,160 --> 00:22:17,880
就涨了一年时间对吧

574
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:18,900
那也不不耽误他

575
00:22:18,900 --> 00:22:19,920
现在连跌半年了

576
00:22:23,890 --> 00:22:24,849
示弱的时候对吧

577
00:22:24,849 --> 00:22:26,089
所以市场就这样

578
00:22:26,089 --> 00:22:28,329
那旧王退位

579
00:22:28,329 --> 00:22:29,750
新王是谁呢

580
00:22:29,750 --> 00:22:32,049
给大家看看新王啊

581
00:22:33,450 --> 00:22:35,009
啊星王来了嘛

582
00:22:35,009 --> 00:22:36,609
英特尔对不对

583
00:22:36,809 --> 00:22:40,390
新王英特尔也是拉出了六亲不认的步伐啊

584
00:22:40,390 --> 00:22:41,869
之前哼哼哼哼哼哼哼

585
00:22:41,869 --> 00:22:45,049
然后呢不断地受到短线资金的炒作

586
00:22:45,049 --> 00:22:46,509
连续的拉升啊

587
00:22:46,509 --> 00:22:48,869
不带任何也不讲任何理由的啊

588
00:22:48,869 --> 00:22:50,079
管他业绩如何

589
00:22:50,079 --> 00:22:51,599
还是给大家看一下业绩吧

590
00:22:51,599 --> 00:22:53,679
大家知道怎么回事啊

591
00:22:53,679 --> 00:22:56,479
他27年我们还是以12月来说啊

592
00:22:56,479 --> 00:22:57,919
27年12月的前瞻

593
00:22:57,919 --> 00:22:59,719
现在市价不是110块吗

594
00:22:59,719 --> 00:23:03,859
前瞻82倍比PRTR还高啊

595
00:23:03,859 --> 00:23:06,500
所以我说那个是旧网

596
00:23:06,500 --> 00:23:08,359
这个是新网嗯

597
00:23:08,359 --> 00:23:10,969
旧网已经重复了啊

598
00:23:10,969 --> 00:23:13,709
用自己肉身讲过了一遍的故事

599
00:23:13,709 --> 00:23:16,769
那兴王再来一遍兴亡后面会发生什么对吧

600
00:23:16,769 --> 00:23:19,509
我们尽管不知道什么时候会发生

601
00:23:19,509 --> 00:23:22,720
但我们知道的是它一定会发生对吧

602
00:23:22,720 --> 00:23:25,319
所以呢你看PRTR的历史故事

603
00:23:25,319 --> 00:23:27,099
你就能够知道啊

604
00:23:27,099 --> 00:23:28,099
所以我才说嘛

605
00:23:28,099 --> 00:23:30,849
这个呃PRTR看着英特尔说

606
00:23:30,849 --> 00:23:32,890
你长得真像年轻时候的我啊

607
00:23:32,890 --> 00:23:35,170
英特尔说我都已经又重生一次了啊

608
00:23:35,170 --> 00:23:36,789
以前那个英特尔我不认识

609
00:23:36,789 --> 00:23:38,049
我是个新的

610
00:23:38,049 --> 00:23:41,750
总之呢短线的这个投机热情还在对吧

611
00:23:41,750 --> 00:23:44,049
然后呢又有了总统的加持啊

612
00:23:44,049 --> 00:23:46,009
还拿出来这个公开表扬它

613
00:23:46,009 --> 00:23:47,859
股价涨得好嗯

614
00:23:47,859 --> 00:23:50,240
希望未来股价要是跌的时候呢

615
00:23:50,240 --> 00:23:53,400
这个要是有些朋友呢这个在高位啊

616
00:23:53,400 --> 00:23:54,519
去买了英特尔的朋友呢

617
00:23:54,519 --> 00:23:55,799
那你就要多等等了啊

618
00:23:55,799 --> 00:23:58,329
要相信这个美国制造

619
00:23:58,329 --> 00:24:00,200
它后面慢慢的就回去

620
00:24:00,200 --> 00:24:02,240
因为现在其实你说英特尔是不是

621
00:24:02,240 --> 00:24:03,319
完全没有利好呢

622
00:24:03,319 --> 00:24:04,839
有但不是业绩上的

623
00:24:04,839 --> 00:24:06,720
还是属于消息面带来的

624
00:24:06,720 --> 00:24:09,569
比方说苹果可能和他在谈啊

625
00:24:09,569 --> 00:24:12,960
苹果和三星和它都在谈一些新的这个代工业务

626
00:24:12,960 --> 00:24:15,799
还有一些其他的企业据说也在和英特尔谈

627
00:24:15,799 --> 00:24:20,410
但前提是英特尔要把东西真正的做好对吧

628
00:24:20,410 --> 00:24:21,690
做好它的芯片

629
00:24:21,690 --> 00:24:22,690
那就没问题

630
00:24:22,690 --> 00:24:24,589
那他就可以回到巅峰吧

631
00:24:24,589 --> 00:24:25,950
我们这里一直都写着一个东西

632
00:24:25,950 --> 00:24:26,940
大家看到没有

633
00:24:26,940 --> 00:24:31,569
19年到21年的业绩EPS年度在四以上啊

634
00:24:31,569 --> 00:24:32,410
现在是多少啊

635
00:24:32,410 --> 00:24:34,890
27年的预计的EPS才一左右

636
00:24:34,890 --> 00:24:36,740
只有以前的1/4

637
00:24:36,740 --> 00:24:39,240
所以我说他可以重回巅峰

638
00:24:39,240 --> 00:24:42,940
但应该是以业绩为支撑的重回巅峰

639
00:24:42,940 --> 00:24:45,460
而不是以投机为主的巅峰

640
00:24:45,460 --> 00:24:47,440
这个巅峰持续不了太久的

641
00:24:47,440 --> 00:24:49,140
靠肾上腺素打上去的

642
00:24:49,140 --> 00:24:51,150
是存在比较大的风险的好吧

643
00:24:51,150 --> 00:24:52,670
但是呢你愿意炒波段的

644
00:24:52,670 --> 00:24:53,950
你愿意炒这个预期啊

645
00:24:53,950 --> 00:24:55,750
那是大家自己按照自己的风险来啊

646
00:24:55,750 --> 00:24:58,420
咱们那个就没有办法给太多看法啊

647
00:24:58,420 --> 00:25:02,230
我这里只看给大家讲基本面的情况好呃

648
00:25:02,230 --> 00:25:05,809
所以呢他的情况往事这个样子呃

649
00:25:05,809 --> 00:25:07,430
然后呢不仅它极端吧

650
00:25:07,430 --> 00:25:10,029
这个市场也是相当相当的极端

651
00:25:10,029 --> 00:25:13,069
给大家来分析一下广度啊

652
00:25:14,140 --> 00:25:16,259
上个星期五呢我们分析过一次广度

653
00:25:16,259 --> 00:25:19,579
今天我想拿出更多的数据来说话

654
00:25:19,579 --> 00:25:22,220
告诉大家现在市场的广度出现了什么问题

655
00:25:22,220 --> 00:25:25,099
以及后面的回报统计

656
00:25:26,859 --> 00:25:30,009
好给大家看一下这张图表呃

657
00:25:30,009 --> 00:25:31,789
这张图表呢大家看到是可以

658
00:25:31,789 --> 00:25:33,509
这是高盛的呃

659
00:25:33,509 --> 00:25:34,789
这个提供的图表啊

660
00:25:34,789 --> 00:25:38,009
呃其实标普500指数啊

661
00:25:38,009 --> 00:25:40,650
现在呢正处于历史高位

662
00:25:40,650 --> 00:25:44,170
但是指数的中位数的股票啊

663
00:25:44,170 --> 00:25:46,079
就是中位价格的股票

664
00:25:46,079 --> 00:25:50,740
仍旧比他的52周的高点低了13%啊

665
00:25:50,740 --> 00:25:52,720
你看的中间写的标普500 13%

666
00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:56,259
那指的是标普中的价格中位数的股票啊

667
00:25:56,259 --> 00:25:59,539
大多数的这个这个这个样本区间的股票

668
00:25:59,539 --> 00:26:02,849
是低52周高点13%的

669
00:26:02,849 --> 00:26:07,799
甚至呢不同板块内部的成份股也差异明显

670
00:26:07,799 --> 00:26:11,740
即便是非常强势的信息技术板块

671
00:26:11,740 --> 00:26:13,480
而其中的中位数的成份股

672
00:26:13,480 --> 00:26:17,039
比52周高点仍旧低了12%

673
00:26:17,039 --> 00:26:18,839
它里面有很多大型科技股

674
00:26:18,839 --> 00:26:19,160
对不对

675
00:26:19,160 --> 00:26:20,000
有很多很好的

676
00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:20,559
长得不错的

677
00:26:20,559 --> 00:26:22,440
像这个MDIMU这种

678
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:26,108
但是大量的股票你别说像微软对吧

679
00:26:26,108 --> 00:26:27,088
他还是低

680
00:26:27,088 --> 00:26:29,088
所以他这里边有很多的股票

681
00:26:29,088 --> 00:26:31,308
板块也出现了明显的分化

682
00:26:31,308 --> 00:26:33,210
那么你看能源啊

683
00:26:33,210 --> 00:26:34,890
公共事业也都是这样的

684
00:26:34,890 --> 00:26:35,910
都比高点还要低

685
00:26:35,910 --> 00:26:38,509
地产百分之低9%呃

686
00:26:38,509 --> 00:26:41,420
工业中卫的里边低11%

687
00:26:41,420 --> 00:26:43,859
金融比五杀洲高点低12%

688
00:26:43,859 --> 00:26:46,869
然后呢下面的基础材料低13%

689
00:26:46,869 --> 00:26:49,450
然后是消费必需品低于16%

690
00:26:49,450 --> 00:26:51,950
然后是通讯也低于16%

691
00:26:51,950 --> 00:26:54,450
然后消费非必需品低17%啊

692
00:26:54,450 --> 00:26:56,349
最后是医疗保健低19%

693
00:26:56,349 --> 00:26:58,069
中位股票比52周低点

694
00:26:58,069 --> 00:27:01,109
所以你能看出它这个广度非常非常的差对吧

695
00:27:01,109 --> 00:27:02,210
非常的糟糕

696
00:27:02,210 --> 00:27:04,730
那么我们这是一个中位的

697
00:27:04,730 --> 00:27:06,329
和52周低点的图表

698
00:27:06,329 --> 00:27:09,329
那么最差的情况有多差呢

699
00:27:09,329 --> 00:27:12,190
我们看一下标普500指数中

700
00:27:12,190 --> 00:27:16,740
创下52周新低的股票数量正在增加

701
00:27:16,740 --> 00:27:18,859
现在标普都已经7200多点了

702
00:27:18,859 --> 00:27:20,380
还有股票在创新低

703
00:27:20,380 --> 00:27:21,380
而且还在增加

704
00:27:21,380 --> 00:27:23,339
是不是很反直觉

705
00:27:24,119 --> 00:27:27,460
这个通常不是一个很好的兆头啊

706
00:27:27,460 --> 00:27:31,150
市场长期牛市的时候

707
00:27:31,509 --> 00:27:34,990
很少会出现创下新低的股票数量

708
00:27:34,990 --> 00:27:36,900
超过20只的情况

709
00:27:36,900 --> 00:27:40,480
现在标普外指数成分股有23只股票

710
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,490
是52周新低

711
00:27:42,490 --> 00:27:43,450
另外呢

712
00:27:43,450 --> 00:27:45,170
纳斯达克100指数中

713
00:27:45,170 --> 00:27:47,950
创新低的股票数量寥寥无几

714
00:27:47,950 --> 00:27:50,579
而创下新高的股票是11%

715
00:27:50,579 --> 00:27:52,200
相比之下就好得多对吧

716
00:27:52,200 --> 00:27:57,359
但是标普有5%的股票创下了历史新高潮

717
00:27:57,359 --> 00:27:59,880
所以纳指明显强得多

718
00:27:59,880 --> 00:28:01,930
标普明显弱得多

719
00:28:01,930 --> 00:28:03,829
那么出现这种情况以后

720
00:28:03,829 --> 00:28:06,970
后面有一个什么样的历史统计呢

721
00:28:07,460 --> 00:28:11,220
当满足当标普满足指数牛市

722
00:28:11,220 --> 00:28:13,259
但是成份股创下新低

723
00:28:13,259 --> 00:28:15,099
股票超过20只的时候啊

724
00:28:15,099 --> 00:28:16,369
这个条件的时候啊

725
00:28:16,369 --> 00:28:20,369
市场短期的平均表现会好于正常水平

726
00:28:20,369 --> 00:28:22,190
但从长期来看

727
00:28:22,190 --> 00:28:24,659
市场表现会差得多

728
00:28:24,659 --> 00:28:27,759
如果我们追溯到1990年以来的统计

729
00:28:27,759 --> 00:28:31,278
当有超过20只股票创下52周新低

730
00:28:31,278 --> 00:28:36,309
那么标普500指数在一个月

731
00:28:36,309 --> 00:28:39,049
三个月和六个月的平均回报

732
00:28:39,049 --> 00:28:41,230
分别是1.3%

733
00:28:41,230 --> 00:28:44,910
负的5.3和负的4.3

734
00:28:44,910 --> 00:28:47,309
如果没有这种极端情况发生的时候

735
00:28:47,309 --> 00:28:49,559
标普普通的时候回报是多少呢

736
00:28:49,559 --> 00:28:52,849
一个月三个月和六个月分别是正0.8

737
00:28:52,849 --> 00:28:55,789
正2.3和正4.8啊

738
00:28:55,789 --> 00:28:56,809
差异非常明显

739
00:28:56,809 --> 00:28:58,849
这个都指的是标普的成分

740
00:28:58,849 --> 00:29:01,189
标普的指数的回报啊

741
00:29:01,189 --> 00:29:02,249
没有说个股啊

742
00:29:02,249 --> 00:29:05,900
所以呢呃这就是目前的一个广度情况

743
00:29:05,900 --> 00:29:08,940
很明显市场呢有强势板块

744
00:29:08,940 --> 00:29:12,699
强势板块里边也分为弱势个股和强势个股

745
00:29:12,699 --> 00:29:17,579
所以市场很明显已经把大盘扔掉了

746
00:29:17,579 --> 00:29:20,180
专心在搞个股啊

747
00:29:20,180 --> 00:29:22,480
所以个股会出现暴涨的暴涨

748
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:23,339
暴跌的暴跌

749
00:29:23,339 --> 00:29:24,940
然后呢回头一轮弄过来

750
00:29:24,940 --> 00:29:25,940
可能前几天还涨了

751
00:29:25,940 --> 00:29:26,640
过几天跌了

752
00:29:26,640 --> 00:29:27,460
前几天还在跌的

753
00:29:27,460 --> 00:29:28,500
过几天又涨

754
00:29:28,500 --> 00:29:29,740
出现这种情况啊

755
00:29:29,740 --> 00:29:30,619
大家不要觉得奇怪

756
00:29:30,619 --> 00:29:32,099
说为什么指数高点了

757
00:29:32,099 --> 00:29:34,750
市场呢还在这还在还这么糟糕

758
00:29:34,750 --> 00:29:36,089
我的我持仓还这么都不动

759
00:29:36,089 --> 00:29:37,920
我都账户都付了

760
00:29:37,920 --> 00:29:39,359
他就那么个情况啊

761
00:29:39,359 --> 00:29:41,299
所以你要知道现在市场在炒什么

762
00:29:41,299 --> 00:29:43,259
这种情况不是个健康的市场

763
00:29:43,259 --> 00:29:47,079
它是属于比较严重的投机的行为

764
00:29:47,079 --> 00:29:49,839
严重的投机行为好

765
00:29:49,839 --> 00:29:51,559
那么讲了这么多

766
00:29:51,559 --> 00:29:55,289
我给大家总结成一句话吧

767
00:29:55,650 --> 00:29:59,109
极端上涨的不会永远极端

768
00:29:59,109 --> 00:30:03,210
别接最后一棒绩优股

769
00:30:03,210 --> 00:30:06,210
但暂时股价落后的

770
00:30:06,210 --> 00:30:08,630
要像猎人一样去潜伏

771
00:30:08,630 --> 00:30:11,670
耐心等待资金回流

772
00:30:11,670 --> 00:30:14,190
大家会等到的啊

773
00:30:14,380 --> 00:30:17,500
好这个呢就是咱们今天节目的全部内容啊

774
00:30:17,500 --> 00:30:18,799
昨天呢没有做节目啊

775
00:30:18,799 --> 00:30:21,019
所以今天咱们节目稍微长一点

776
00:30:21,019 --> 00:30:22,759
把两天合成一天

777
00:30:22,759 --> 00:30:26,599
现在大家听起来呢可能会内容多一些些啊

778
00:30:26,599 --> 00:30:27,200
好吧

779
00:30:27,200 --> 00:30:31,160
那非常感谢大家的这个一直以来的陪伴啊

780
00:30:31,160 --> 00:30:32,240
特别是很包容啊

781
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:33,138
感谢大家

782
00:30:33,138 --> 00:30:35,118
这个这个以后呢

783
00:30:35,118 --> 00:30:38,669
尽量啊有什么事情还是早发通知好吧

784
00:30:38,669 --> 00:30:40,669
免得这个大家时间也挺宝贵的

785
00:30:40,669 --> 00:30:43,329
一个人等我这个一个小时

786
00:30:43,329 --> 00:30:45,450
那你这个这么多人对吧

787
00:30:45,450 --> 00:30:45,890
几万人

788
00:30:45,890 --> 00:30:46,809
那得等多少小时啊

789
00:30:46,809 --> 00:30:48,130
都属于浪费大家的时间了啊

790
00:30:48,130 --> 00:30:50,490
所以我尽量早一些去

791
00:30:50,490 --> 00:30:52,289
如果有问题给大家发通知

792
00:30:52,289 --> 00:30:53,789
但这种情况比较罕见啊

793
00:30:53,789 --> 00:30:57,019
我通常来讲都是提前一天我就告诉大家

794
00:30:57,019 --> 00:30:58,279
第二天我有事怎么样

795
00:30:58,279 --> 00:31:00,859
但昨天确实是非常非常的意外

796
00:31:00,859 --> 00:31:02,019
一个很小的事情

797
00:31:02,019 --> 00:31:03,900
没想到拖了那么长时间啊

798
00:31:03,900 --> 00:31:05,480
所有的时候呃

799
00:31:05,480 --> 00:31:08,339
效率这件这个问题呢真的我自己掌控不了啊

800
00:31:08,339 --> 00:31:09,200
在别人手里

801
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:11,700
在办事的人的手里好

802
00:31:11,700 --> 00:31:12,940
那我们今天到这儿吧

803
00:31:12,940 --> 00:31:16,089
啊希望大家呢呃后面我们继续慢慢等待吧

804
00:31:16,089 --> 00:31:17,369
好吧呃

805
00:31:17,369 --> 00:31:21,319
也不要有什么太大的这个烦躁的心理啊

806
00:31:21,319 --> 00:31:23,099
没有赚到怎么样怎么样的

807
00:31:23,099 --> 00:31:24,619
然后呢现在我赚到了

808
00:31:24,619 --> 00:31:25,259
我也极端

809
00:31:25,259 --> 00:31:26,539
然后我的股票涨的很好

810
00:31:26,539 --> 00:31:27,299
我怎么办

811
00:31:27,299 --> 00:31:28,339
放轻松嘛

812
00:31:28,339 --> 00:31:29,140
放轻松嘛

813
00:31:29,140 --> 00:31:31,660
你这个赚到钱的操作就是好操作啊

814
00:31:31,660 --> 00:31:32,500
不要太苛刻

815
00:31:32,500 --> 00:31:34,230
对自己好一点好

816
00:31:34,230 --> 00:31:35,269
非常感谢大家啊

817
00:31:35,269 --> 00:31:37,750
如果你觉得我的节目对你有所帮助

818
00:31:37,750 --> 00:31:41,490
还是希望大家能够多多帮忙点赞评论转发啊

819
00:31:41,490 --> 00:31:42,089
谢谢大家

820
00:31:42,089 --> 00:31:43,569
那我们今天到这

821
00:31:43,569 --> 00:31:47,259
明天同一时间一定啊不见不散

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