BV1uMGn6rEqx · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:02,819 --> 00:00:05,040 欢迎观看布鲁克斯交易课程 2 00:00:05,040 --> 00:00:07,660 这是楔形的第四节课 3 00:00:12,179 --> 00:00:15,330 我想从抛物线楔形开始讲起 4 00:00:15,769 --> 00:00:17,710 抛物线是指的斜率增加 5 00:00:17,710 --> 00:00:19,809 越来越陡峭的趋势 6 00:00:20,920 --> 00:00:23,039 如果是上涨的抛物线楔形 7 00:00:23,039 --> 00:00:24,780 它是一种抢购高潮 8 00:00:24,780 --> 00:00:26,859 如果是下跌的抛物线楔形 9 00:00:26,859 --> 00:00:28,829 它是一种抛售高潮 10 00:00:28,829 --> 00:00:34,030 此外强趋势中的三推楔形往往不是好的反转机会 11 00:00:40,420 --> 00:00:42,560 当我讲到抛物线楔形的时候 12 00:00:42,560 --> 00:00:44,479 他们往往没有楔形的形状 13 00:00:44,479 --> 00:00:47,020 但确实有三推的结构 14 00:00:49,079 --> 00:00:51,579 这是三次连续的抢购高潮 15 00:00:51,579 --> 00:00:52,899 这是第一推 16 00:00:52,899 --> 00:00:55,820 这一根K线或三根K线是抢购高潮 17 00:00:55,820 --> 00:00:57,000 然后是这第二推 18 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:00,719 第三推负123 19 00:01:05,040 --> 00:01:05,920 三推 20 00:01:05,920 --> 00:01:08,040 所以这是楔形非常窄的通道 21 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:10,579 当通道这么窄的时候 22 00:01:10,579 --> 00:01:13,519 我通常说它是抛物线楔形 23 00:01:14,579 --> 00:01:16,920 如果它发生在交易时段的开盘 24 00:01:16,920 --> 00:01:19,480 更有可能会导致反转注 25 00:01:19,480 --> 00:01:21,109 比如股票的早盘 26 00:01:21,109 --> 00:01:22,629 外汇欧盘时段的开盘 27 00:01:22,629 --> 00:01:24,370 这里的第三推可以被细分 28 00:01:24,370 --> 00:01:26,129 第一推回调 29 00:01:26,129 --> 00:01:28,310 然后第二推回调 30 00:01:28,310 --> 00:01:29,250 然后是小的 31 00:01:29,250 --> 00:01:32,409 第三推之后反转下跌 32 00:01:33,109 --> 00:01:35,510 你可以说它是嵌套式的抛物线接 33 00:01:35,510 --> 00:01:37,129 你可以看到很多上影线 34 00:01:37,129 --> 00:01:41,010 这根K线这根K线还有这个上影线 35 00:01:41,010 --> 00:01:43,010 每次价格尝试上涨的时候 36 00:01:43,010 --> 00:01:44,250 没有人愿意追涨 37 00:01:44,250 --> 00:01:46,689 反而是很多人在卖出 38 00:01:50,379 --> 00:01:52,900 抛物线楔形通常波段之间没有重复 39 00:01:52,900 --> 00:01:55,140 第二段上涨之后的回调 40 00:01:56,370 --> 00:01:58,530 没有碰到第一段的最高点 41 00:01:58,530 --> 00:02:00,530 存在缺口 42 00:02:03,040 --> 00:02:04,459 通道非常窄 43 00:02:04,459 --> 00:02:06,599 我在这里大概的画了一个通道 44 00:02:06,599 --> 00:02:08,240 非常的窄 45 00:02:11,419 --> 00:02:13,459 下跌过程中也是同样的情况 46 00:02:13,459 --> 00:02:15,318 第一次下跌暂停 47 00:02:15,318 --> 00:02:17,569 第二次下跌暂停 48 00:02:17,569 --> 00:02:19,129 然后第三次下跌 49 00:02:19,129 --> 00:02:20,490 三次向下的推动 50 00:02:20,490 --> 00:02:22,650 我会说它是抛物线楔形底 51 00:02:22,650 --> 00:02:25,289 然后价格反转上涨 52 00:02:29,400 --> 00:02:32,740 上涨或下跌的曲线并非必须是抛物线 53 00:02:32,740 --> 00:02:36,139 左边上涨的抛物线楔形实际上不是抛物线 54 00:02:36,139 --> 00:02:39,039 然而右边下跌的抛物线楔形 55 00:02:39,039 --> 00:02:40,680 如果你画一条线连接 56 00:02:40,680 --> 00:02:43,719 然后再画一条线连接二和三 57 00:02:45,139 --> 00:02:47,460 第二条趋势线更陡峭加速 58 00:02:47,460 --> 00:02:49,280 所以下跌的斜率在增加 59 00:02:49,280 --> 00:02:52,460 这就是我使用抛物线一词的原因 60 00:02:54,139 --> 00:02:57,219 可以看到一二或者这是二 61 00:02:58,419 --> 00:03:01,379 然后三第三推更陡峭 62 00:03:03,960 --> 00:03:05,240 在反转前 63 00:03:05,240 --> 00:03:08,219 第三推通常会加速跌破通道下沿 64 00:03:08,219 --> 00:03:09,719 如果在这里画一条线 65 00:03:09,719 --> 00:03:12,329 连接123 66 00:03:13,520 --> 00:03:16,419 你会看到第三推加速跌破通道下沿 67 00:03:16,419 --> 00:03:18,639 然后反转上涨 68 00:03:19,699 --> 00:03:22,960 这也是体现它是抛物线下跌的另一种方式 69 00:03:22,960 --> 00:03:26,180 体现出市场正在加速下跌 70 00:03:28,599 --> 00:03:32,879 每当你看到抛物线楔形或一系列抛物线的抢购高潮 71 00:03:32,879 --> 00:03:36,560 比如这里123或者抛售高手 72 00:03:36,560 --> 00:03:39,259 你必须思考一市场是否走得太远 73 00:03:39,259 --> 00:03:40,909 太止损太远了 74 00:03:40,909 --> 00:03:42,370 交易者必须止盈 75 00:03:42,370 --> 00:03:46,030 通过减激进的交易者风险会在上涨的抛物线楔形做空 76 00:03:46,030 --> 00:03:49,080 或在下跌的抛物线楔形做多压住 77 00:03:49,080 --> 00:03:50,340 至少有小幅的止盈 78 00:03:50,340 --> 00:03:51,400 至少有小反转 79 00:03:51,400 --> 00:03:52,960 可以剥头皮 80 00:03:55,280 --> 00:03:56,680 对于这类做法 81 00:03:56,680 --> 00:03:59,759 大部分交易者应该要非常的小心谨慎 82 00:03:59,759 --> 00:04:02,240 除非你能很好地管理这样的交易 83 00:04:02,240 --> 00:04:03,659 否则就不要做 84 00:04:03,659 --> 00:04:06,859 比如如果你在这根K线下方卖出 85 00:04:06,859 --> 00:04:11,419 或者更好的选择是你要确保K线下可以依赖这里的止损 86 00:04:11,539 --> 00:04:16,180 然后在这里和这里的反弹中坚定持有不动摇 87 00:04:19,819 --> 00:04:22,560 如果你在第一做空入场点开仓做空 88 00:04:22,560 --> 00:04:25,019 你的止损在上面风险小 89 00:04:25,019 --> 00:04:27,060 但胜率也低 90 00:04:28,139 --> 00:04:30,579 如果你等到强势的空头突破 91 00:04:30,579 --> 00:04:32,360 看到连续两根阴线后 92 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:33,759 会有更高的胜率 93 00:04:33,759 --> 00:04:35,420 至少可以赚到一些小的利润 94 00:04:35,420 --> 00:04:37,240 但是如果在这里入场做空 95 00:04:37,370 --> 00:04:39,529 你的止损在这里或甚至这里 96 00:04:39,529 --> 00:04:40,750 所以风险更大 97 00:04:40,750 --> 00:04:42,158 这里也是一样 98 00:04:42,158 --> 00:04:44,579 如果你在这根K线上方买入 99 00:04:44,579 --> 00:04:46,939 你的止损就在下面很近 100 00:04:46,939 --> 00:04:47,639 风险小 101 00:04:47,639 --> 00:04:49,230 但胜率并不是很高 102 00:04:49,230 --> 00:04:51,850 如果你等到大阳线突破和跟随 103 00:04:51,850 --> 00:04:53,490 然后在它的收盘买入 104 00:04:53,490 --> 00:04:55,629 有更高的概率可以赚到钱 105 00:04:55,629 --> 00:04:56,750 但止损更远 106 00:04:56,750 --> 00:05:01,120 在这里那里或这里两者总是不可兼得 107 00:05:01,120 --> 00:05:04,178 如果你等待更高胜率的机会再入场 108 00:05:04,499 --> 00:05:07,379 代价是盈亏比会变差 109 00:05:07,970 --> 00:05:09,149 止损更远 110 00:05:09,149 --> 00:05:10,689 所以初始风险更大 111 00:05:10,689 --> 00:05:12,129 而且你入场较晚 112 00:05:12,129 --> 00:05:15,050 所以趋势中剩余的盈利空间更小 113 00:05:15,050 --> 00:05:19,410 然而早期低胜率入场和后期高胜率入场 114 00:05:19,410 --> 00:05:21,649 前者的做法的数学期望都是后者 115 00:05:21,649 --> 00:05:23,850 尽管盈亏比变差 116 00:05:24,209 --> 00:05:26,610 但赚到钱的概率更高 117 00:05:30,120 --> 00:05:31,939 抛物线楔形是一个通道 118 00:05:31,939 --> 00:05:34,920 第一段上涨深度回调非常强的 119 00:05:34,920 --> 00:05:36,699 第二段上涨到这个高点 120 00:05:36,699 --> 00:05:38,730 然后是第三段上涨 121 00:05:38,730 --> 00:05:41,990 当然你也可以说它是第二段陷阱 122 00:05:41,990 --> 00:05:43,250 可能是震荡区间 123 00:05:43,250 --> 00:05:44,769 第一段回调 124 00:05:44,769 --> 00:05:46,290 第二段很强 125 00:05:46,290 --> 00:05:49,029 两者都是既可以看作确实是这样 126 00:05:49,029 --> 00:05:51,490 第二段做三根非常大的阳线 127 00:05:51,490 --> 00:05:54,250 这个上影线代表了第二段上涨的结束 128 00:05:55,410 --> 00:05:57,389 然后回调到这根K线的低点 129 00:05:57,389 --> 00:05:59,810 再是第三段上涨 130 00:06:04,579 --> 00:06:05,660 这是一根回调 131 00:06:05,660 --> 00:06:09,180 K线从它的上影线回调到他的下影线 132 00:06:09,180 --> 00:06:11,139 这是第二段上涨的结束 133 00:06:11,139 --> 00:06:13,480 然后是第三段上涨 134 00:06:15,839 --> 00:06:19,620 你可以在那根阳线下方或那根阴线下方做空 135 00:06:19,620 --> 00:06:22,798 或者等看到3~4根连续的阴线之后 136 00:06:22,798 --> 00:06:26,559 在这根或那根K线的收盘开仓卖出做空 137 00:06:26,559 --> 00:06:29,439 这样做赚钱的胜率更高 138 00:06:30,079 --> 00:06:31,420 如果你入场晚 139 00:06:31,420 --> 00:06:33,459 你的止损仍然在这里 140 00:06:33,459 --> 00:06:36,959 你预期至少会有小的第二段下跌 141 00:06:37,370 --> 00:06:40,970 这代表市场反转成为单边下跌的趋势 142 00:06:40,970 --> 00:06:42,430 多头放弃了 143 00:06:42,430 --> 00:06:44,769 他们明白这是一个多头陷阱 144 00:06:44,769 --> 00:06:47,970 而且市场大概率会继续下跌 145 00:06:53,800 --> 00:06:55,079 在这个案例中 146 00:06:55,079 --> 00:06:57,199 左边是抛物线楔形顶 147 00:06:57,199 --> 00:06:59,430 第一段下跌反弹 148 00:06:59,430 --> 00:07:00,629 第二段下跌 149 00:07:00,629 --> 00:07:02,350 然后这根阳线是暂停 150 00:07:02,350 --> 00:07:03,870 最后是第三段下跌 151 00:07:03,870 --> 00:07:06,910 抛物线楔形底跌到震荡区间的下沿附近 152 00:07:06,910 --> 00:07:08,750 出现了一根非常漂亮的阳线 153 00:07:08,750 --> 00:07:09,829 好的做多信号 154 00:07:09,829 --> 00:07:13,230 可以看到抛物线如果我连接一和二的低点 155 00:07:14,000 --> 00:07:15,759 在连接二和三的低点 156 00:07:15,759 --> 00:07:18,800 会发现通道线变得更加陡峭 157 00:07:21,439 --> 00:07:25,519 因此这是加速向下的抛物线下跌 158 00:07:29,319 --> 00:07:32,240 尝试跌破抢购高潮的起点 159 00:07:33,610 --> 00:07:36,029 尝试跌破上涨趋势起涨点 160 00:07:36,029 --> 00:07:37,230 但是失败了 161 00:07:37,230 --> 00:07:39,250 注在起涨点附近 162 00:07:39,250 --> 00:07:40,850 往往会有很多人等着买 163 00:07:40,850 --> 00:07:43,189 这里在震荡区间的下沿 164 00:07:43,189 --> 00:07:46,559 他和前期的低点形成了一个完美的双底 165 00:07:46,559 --> 00:07:48,879 而且有一个非常强的做多信号 166 00:07:48,879 --> 00:07:51,360 K线即使下降通道非常窄 167 00:07:51,360 --> 00:07:53,480 而且你知道不一定会有很大的反弹 168 00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,040 但是至少有两段上涨 169 00:07:55,040 --> 00:07:57,449 反弹的概率还是相对较高的 170 00:07:57,449 --> 00:08:01,610 一回调二或者二 171 00:08:07,240 --> 00:08:09,160 这里有一个抛物线楔形顶 172 00:08:09,160 --> 00:08:09,819 第一推 173 00:08:09,819 --> 00:08:15,319 然后上影线上涨下跌上涨下跌 174 00:08:15,319 --> 00:08:15,860 第一段 175 00:08:15,860 --> 00:08:17,720 然后有两根连续的阳线 176 00:08:17,720 --> 00:08:19,819 顶部有上影线 177 00:08:20,329 --> 00:08:21,990 第二段上涨结束 178 00:08:21,990 --> 00:08:23,490 回调到他的收盘 179 00:08:23,490 --> 00:08:25,009 再到下一根K线的低 180 00:08:25,009 --> 00:08:26,470 最后是第三推 181 00:08:26,470 --> 00:08:27,670 在我看来 182 00:08:27,670 --> 00:08:29,670 这是急速变通道的抛物线 183 00:08:29,670 --> 00:08:30,990 这是一个抛物线楔形 184 00:08:30,990 --> 00:08:32,610 第一推是急速上涨 185 00:08:32,610 --> 00:08:33,649 然后回调 186 00:08:33,649 --> 00:08:35,610 然后再由两段上涨 187 00:08:35,610 --> 00:08:38,429 阳线小阳线暂停 188 00:08:38,429 --> 00:08:40,889 然后是更大的阳线 189 00:08:46,220 --> 00:08:48,568 在较小时间周期的K线图上 190 00:08:48,568 --> 00:08:50,328 你可以看到这是一个回调 191 00:08:50,328 --> 00:08:51,408 这里也是回调 192 00:08:51,408 --> 00:08:52,808 从那个高点回调到这点 193 00:08:52,808 --> 00:08:54,928 但是没必要切换到更小的时间 194 00:08:54,928 --> 00:08:59,590 通过这个K线图就能够推断出小周期发生的事情 195 00:09:01,340 --> 00:09:05,379 暂停之后两根阳线上涨再次暂停 196 00:09:05,379 --> 00:09:08,820 然后是一根阳线收在高位 197 00:09:10,139 --> 00:09:12,519 连续三根阴线收在最低 198 00:09:12,519 --> 00:09:17,099 市场正在从抛物线抢购高潮中反转下跌 199 00:09:17,739 --> 00:09:20,298 看这里的第三根K线 200 00:09:20,629 --> 00:09:22,389 多头正在无脑买入 201 00:09:22,389 --> 00:09:23,629 他们在阳线的收入 202 00:09:23,629 --> 00:09:25,490 然后对这根阴线感到失望 203 00:09:25,490 --> 00:09:28,269 他们发现也许这是一个抛物线楔形 204 00:09:28,269 --> 00:09:30,230 也许我应该争取打平离场 205 00:09:30,230 --> 00:09:31,549 于是他们在入场 206 00:09:31,549 --> 00:09:32,389 想要打平离场 207 00:09:32,389 --> 00:09:32,990 现价买单 208 00:09:32,990 --> 00:09:34,590 但是看看这里发生了什么价格 209 00:09:34,590 --> 00:09:37,309 就差一点没有碰到那根阳线的收盘 210 00:09:37,309 --> 00:09:38,230 多头的现价卖掉 211 00:09:38,230 --> 00:09:39,110 丝毫无法成交 212 00:09:39,110 --> 00:09:41,649 为什么差一点碰到市场反转下跌 213 00:09:41,649 --> 00:09:43,078 多头开始放弃 214 00:09:43,078 --> 00:09:45,339 在下跌的过程中不断卖出 215 00:09:45,339 --> 00:09:47,979 放弃这三根连续的阴线 216 00:09:47,979 --> 00:09:49,419 代表多头放弃 217 00:09:49,419 --> 00:09:51,320 这是一系列的放弃K线 218 00:09:51,320 --> 00:09:52,919 而空投反而在入场 219 00:09:52,919 --> 00:09:55,679 他们知道这可能是抛物线抢购高潮 220 00:09:55,679 --> 00:09:58,679 他们知道多头对这根阴线感到失望 221 00:09:58,679 --> 00:10:02,720 所以空投会在那个收盘价下方挂现价卖单做空 222 00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,750 因为他们知道多头想要打平离场 223 00:10:06,029 --> 00:10:08,409 当价格接近那个收盘价时 224 00:10:08,409 --> 00:10:10,750 空投就开始用现价价格打压下 225 00:10:10,750 --> 00:10:13,029 或者市价卖套住那些追高的多头 226 00:10:13,029 --> 00:10:15,355 不给他们打平的机会 227 00:10:17,019 --> 00:10:19,360 在第二或第三根阴线收盘后 228 00:10:19,360 --> 00:10:21,139 空头开始在阴线的收盘 229 00:10:21,139 --> 00:10:23,379 于是变成了卖收盘的下降趋势 230 00:10:23,379 --> 00:10:25,000 多头在放弃 231 00:10:25,000 --> 00:10:27,320 没有人继续买入 232 00:10:30,159 --> 00:10:32,679 连续五根阴线下跌暂停 233 00:10:32,679 --> 00:10:34,019 连续三根阴线 234 00:10:34,019 --> 00:10:35,399 然后是小十字星 235 00:10:35,399 --> 00:10:37,230 暂停再次下跌 236 00:10:37,230 --> 00:10:38,809 这个大阴线是第三 237 00:10:38,809 --> 00:10:39,789 单头下跌 238 00:10:39,789 --> 00:10:44,750 123抛物线楔形底 239 00:10:44,750 --> 00:10:47,070 这是抛售高潮之后 240 00:10:47,070 --> 00:10:48,610 只是进入了震荡区间 241 00:10:48,610 --> 00:10:50,769 没有反转上涨 242 00:10:53,940 --> 00:10:56,419 这在抛售高潮或抢购高潮之后 243 00:10:56,419 --> 00:10:57,240 很常见 244 00:10:57,240 --> 00:10:58,940 市场会横盘震荡 245 00:10:58,940 --> 00:11:01,100 而不是反转 246 00:11:05,080 --> 00:11:07,600 这是一个很常见的模式 247 00:11:08,429 --> 00:11:10,110 非常强的多头突破 248 00:11:10,110 --> 00:11:10,929 第二推 249 00:11:10,929 --> 00:11:12,350 第三推 250 00:11:12,629 --> 00:11:19,049 你可以说它是嵌套式的抛物线楔形一二第三推可以细分成一个小楔形 251 00:11:19,049 --> 00:11:20,629 123 252 00:11:20,629 --> 00:11:22,399 总之急速上涨 253 00:11:22,399 --> 00:11:24,399 回调抛物线通道 254 00:11:24,399 --> 00:11:27,159 然后开始回调5~10根K线 255 00:11:27,159 --> 00:11:29,099 此时它仍然是一个牛企 256 00:11:29,099 --> 00:11:32,610 20根K线大概率仍然是25根K线 257 00:11:32,610 --> 00:11:35,649 看起来仍然像一多头在买入复习不断尝试 258 00:11:35,649 --> 00:11:36,409 又或者复制 259 00:11:36,409 --> 00:11:37,549 一旦局势的回调 260 00:11:37,549 --> 00:11:40,019 连续两根阴线收在最低 261 00:11:40,019 --> 00:11:41,179 体积足够大 262 00:11:41,179 --> 00:11:45,009 多头放弃了空头接管市场 263 00:11:45,009 --> 00:11:48,730 这很可能是测量型缺口向下的mm目标 264 00:11:48,730 --> 00:11:50,190 这是无尽的回调 265 00:11:50,190 --> 00:11:53,909 它一直持续了十二十三十根K线 266 00:11:53,909 --> 00:11:56,720 而这通常是一个下降趋势的开始 267 00:11:56,720 --> 00:11:59,299 尤其是在抛物线抢购高潮之后 268 00:11:59,299 --> 00:12:02,200 如果你看到市场回调进入窄震荡区 269 00:12:02,200 --> 00:12:03,799 区间稍微向下倾斜 270 00:12:03,799 --> 00:12:05,419 在5~10根K线后 271 00:12:05,419 --> 00:12:07,220 这可能是无尽的回调 272 00:12:07,220 --> 00:12:09,960 将转变为下降趋势 273 00:12:11,360 --> 00:12:12,559 可以耐心等待 274 00:12:13,600 --> 00:12:14,940 没有好的买入机会 275 00:12:14,940 --> 00:12:17,610 但是一旦你看到空投突破 276 00:12:17,610 --> 00:12:19,269 这就是好的做空机会 277 00:12:19,269 --> 00:12:21,250 一些空投会在这里卖出 278 00:12:21,250 --> 00:12:22,669 在那根K线下方 279 00:12:22,669 --> 00:12:25,559 一些空头知道多头感到失望 280 00:12:25,559 --> 00:12:28,440 如果多头在那个阳线的收盘买入 281 00:12:28,440 --> 00:12:29,639 他们可能想要打拼 282 00:12:29,639 --> 00:12:31,759 所以在那个收盘价会有一些卖盘 283 00:12:31,759 --> 00:12:34,080 可以看到这根阳线来自于收头线和空线 284 00:12:34,080 --> 00:12:36,620 下一根K线也有同款上影线 285 00:12:36,620 --> 00:12:38,779 看起来多头在放弃 286 00:12:38,779 --> 00:12:42,000 更多的多头会在那根K线下方卖出离场 287 00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:43,220 空头也会卖出 288 00:12:43,220 --> 00:12:46,328 做空压住多头正在放弃 289 00:12:46,489 --> 00:12:49,249 而且多头至少会等待5~10根K线 290 00:12:49,249 --> 00:12:51,889 市场再也没有回到那个价格 291 00:12:55,700 --> 00:12:57,340 没有连续的大阴线 292 00:12:57,340 --> 00:13:00,809 但是这个下降微通道持续了13根K线 293 00:13:00,809 --> 00:13:02,850 连续下跌了13根K线 294 00:13:02,850 --> 00:13:04,509 可能是无尽的回调 295 00:13:04,509 --> 00:13:06,429 当你看到无尽的回调时 296 00:13:06,429 --> 00:13:11,350 有50%的概率会出现空头突破和下跌波段 297 00:13:13,899 --> 00:13:15,460 多头尝试反转 298 00:13:15,460 --> 00:13:18,089 两段下跌一反弹 299 00:13:18,089 --> 00:13:19,749 二大阳线之后 300 00:13:19,749 --> 00:13:21,808 跟随的买入没有跟随买盘 301 00:13:21,808 --> 00:13:24,769 所以这可能是一个双顶雄奇 302 00:13:25,250 --> 00:13:28,289 和这个阳线形成了高点略微降低的双顶 303 00:13:28,289 --> 00:13:29,830 又一个窄震荡区间 304 00:13:29,830 --> 00:13:32,049 然后空投突破 305 00:13:33,899 --> 00:13:35,840 阴线后续有跟随 306 00:13:35,840 --> 00:13:37,519 现在已经是单边下跌了 307 00:13:37,519 --> 00:13:40,139 一直到这里都属于单边上涨 308 00:13:40,139 --> 00:13:42,799 概率站在多头这边上涨趋势 309 00:13:42,799 --> 00:13:44,919 但随着回调的K线越来越多 310 00:13:44,919 --> 00:13:46,460 市场逐渐变得中性 311 00:13:46,460 --> 00:13:48,029 大约20根K线后 312 00:13:48,029 --> 00:13:51,429 多空双方的概率也许多头的概率略高一些 313 00:13:51,429 --> 00:13:54,269 然而一旦出现空头突破 314 00:13:54,269 --> 00:13:56,110 相较于左边的那些K线 315 00:13:56,110 --> 00:13:58,849 这两根阴线的体积也足够大 316 00:13:58,849 --> 00:14:01,109 市场进入单边下跌的趋势 317 00:14:01,109 --> 00:14:04,688 很可能会跌到某个mm目标位 318 00:14:05,580 --> 00:14:10,120 从最高点到缺口的中间或者到突破点 319 00:14:10,120 --> 00:14:13,000 也就是这个或那个低点往下翻一倍 320 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:15,399 作为MMM目标位发生了什么 321 00:14:15,399 --> 00:14:20,809 空头买入只赢了一部分非常窄的下降通道 322 00:14:20,809 --> 00:14:22,389 尽管这根阳线很不错 323 00:14:22,389 --> 00:14:24,970 但是很多空头会再次卖出做空 324 00:14:24,970 --> 00:14:26,929 在这根阴线的下方 325 00:14:26,929 --> 00:14:30,009 或者在那个十字星K线的下方开仓 326 00:14:30,009 --> 00:14:31,330 压住下降趋势 327 00:14:31,330 --> 00:14:35,129 这个反弹还不足以让市场回到上涨趋势 328 00:14:41,360 --> 00:14:43,139 这一天跳空高开 329 00:14:43,139 --> 00:14:47,179 三推上涨一回调二回调 330 00:14:47,179 --> 00:14:49,328 然后第三后是阴线 331 00:14:49,328 --> 00:14:51,548 可能是开盘的抛物线反转 332 00:14:51,548 --> 00:14:56,000 注开盘反转会在第48单元详细讲解 333 00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,159 这是很大的抢购高潮吗 334 00:14:58,159 --> 00:14:59,139 并不是 335 00:14:59,139 --> 00:15:02,559 这两根大阳线并不算特别夸张 336 00:15:03,299 --> 00:15:05,360 既然不是很大的抢购高潮 337 00:15:05,360 --> 00:15:07,839 多头可能还没有精疲力尽 338 00:15:07,839 --> 00:15:11,239 很可能只是小反转进入震荡区间 339 00:15:11,239 --> 00:15:13,678 而不是大反转成为下降趋势 340 00:15:13,678 --> 00:15:15,119 就像这样 341 00:15:20,240 --> 00:15:22,679 不是极端的抢购高潮 342 00:15:23,710 --> 00:15:25,669 没有连续特别大的大阳线 343 00:15:26,830 --> 00:15:30,379 这样的上涨波段更有可能变成震荡区间 344 00:15:30,500 --> 00:15:32,139 而不是高潮结束 345 00:15:32,139 --> 00:15:34,649 然后反转进入下降趋势 346 00:15:34,649 --> 00:15:36,730 空投也许有机会逆转 347 00:15:36,730 --> 00:15:37,730 但你可以看到 348 00:15:37,730 --> 00:15:39,610 当价格跌到前期的低点 349 00:15:39,610 --> 00:15:40,889 交易者就立刻买 350 00:15:40,889 --> 00:15:42,129 这是震荡区间的价格 351 00:15:42,129 --> 00:15:44,789 新低位反转上涨 352 00:15:46,500 --> 00:15:49,039 再看右边这里两根阴线 353 00:15:49,039 --> 00:15:50,419 两根大阴线 354 00:15:50,419 --> 00:15:51,899 这里又是一根大阴线 355 00:15:51,899 --> 00:15:53,240 相比开盘的上涨 356 00:15:53,240 --> 00:15:55,259 这段下跌的行情更加高潮 357 00:15:55,259 --> 00:15:55,940 更有可能 358 00:15:55,940 --> 00:15:58,019 这会导致反转 359 00:15:59,119 --> 00:16:02,198 尤其这里有一个很好的阳线做多信号 360 00:16:02,198 --> 00:16:03,119 没错 361 00:16:03,119 --> 00:16:05,919 这是震荡区间底部的真空测试 362 00:16:05,919 --> 00:16:08,710 左边是双底空投突破 363 00:16:08,710 --> 00:16:10,389 第一次尝试反转 364 00:16:10,389 --> 00:16:11,909 这里再次尝试反转 365 00:16:11,909 --> 00:16:14,690 上漂亮的阳线反转成功 366 00:16:14,690 --> 00:16:17,549 有几段上涨一回调 367 00:16:17,549 --> 00:16:21,519 这段下跌是对震荡区间下沿的真空测试 368 00:16:21,799 --> 00:16:24,080 跌破区间下沿的尝试失败了 369 00:16:24,080 --> 00:16:26,000 我会把它看作一个小双底 370 00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:27,970 这个低点和那个低点 371 00:16:27,970 --> 00:16:30,210 虽然他们完全不在同一水平上 372 00:16:30,210 --> 00:16:31,929 市场在这里尝试反转 373 00:16:31,929 --> 00:16:34,610 但是左边的连续大阴线太强了 374 00:16:34,610 --> 00:16:36,809 大概下跌时还会有一小段下跌 375 00:16:36,809 --> 00:16:39,210 这里和这里两次尝试反转 376 00:16:39,210 --> 00:16:40,779 尽管不在同一水平 377 00:16:40,779 --> 00:16:42,120 这是双底的一种 378 00:16:42,120 --> 00:16:46,139 同时这也是一个抛物线歇和双底的原理一样反弹 379 00:16:46,139 --> 00:16:47,980 然后第二次抛售高潮 380 00:16:47,980 --> 00:16:50,139 最后一次抛售高潮 381 00:16:54,120 --> 00:16:58,080 抛物线楔形在开盘后的第一个小时很常见 382 00:16:59,700 --> 00:17:02,480 每当你在开盘看到一段强势的上涨 383 00:17:02,480 --> 00:17:03,440 然后暂停 384 00:17:03,440 --> 00:17:05,420 然后是一系列的抢购高潮 385 00:17:05,420 --> 00:17:08,529 你必须要想到有可能是抛物线楔形 386 00:17:08,559 --> 00:17:11,079 这就是一个潜在的抛物线楔形顶 387 00:17:11,079 --> 00:17:12,720 第一推暂停 388 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:14,420 第二推暂停 389 00:17:14,420 --> 00:17:15,420 第三推 390 00:17:15,420 --> 00:17:17,490 然后甚至有第四推 391 00:17:17,490 --> 00:17:24,190 抛物线楔形到底是123还是1234 392 00:17:24,190 --> 00:17:28,109 并不需要纠结这个这是开盘后的一系列抢购高潮 393 00:17:28,109 --> 00:17:31,549 所以必须考虑到抛物线楔形的可能性 394 00:17:31,549 --> 00:17:34,059 形成抛物线楔形之后 395 00:17:34,059 --> 00:17:36,660 尤其是在早盘会有回调 396 00:17:36,660 --> 00:17:39,039 这里形成了一个窄下降通道 397 00:17:39,039 --> 00:17:41,250 大约持续了十根K线 398 00:17:41,250 --> 00:17:45,890 然后市场决定到底是恢复上涨还是反转下跌 399 00:17:45,890 --> 00:17:49,220 大阴线跌破测量型缺口 400 00:17:49,220 --> 00:17:51,240 至少还会有几段下跌 401 00:17:51,240 --> 00:17:54,420 一反弹二 402 00:17:59,039 --> 00:18:01,140 连续上涨13根K线 403 00:18:01,140 --> 00:18:02,079 没有明显的 404 00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:03,240 就凭这一点注 405 00:18:03,240 --> 00:18:04,240 连续十根K线 406 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:05,480 三根K线都在上涨 407 00:18:05,480 --> 00:18:07,269 本身就是一种抢购高潮 408 00:18:07,269 --> 00:18:08,609 因此不可持续 409 00:18:08,609 --> 00:18:11,230 任何无法持续的行情都是高潮 410 00:18:11,230 --> 00:18:13,130 而且是连续的抢购高潮 411 00:18:13,130 --> 00:18:14,369 两根阳线 412 00:18:14,369 --> 00:18:16,470 很多大阳线收在最高 413 00:18:16,470 --> 00:18:17,759 两根阳线 414 00:18:17,759 --> 00:18:19,319 这根收在最高 415 00:18:19,319 --> 00:18:21,710 然后还想继续上涨 416 00:18:21,710 --> 00:18:24,660 这是高潮的价格行为 417 00:18:27,000 --> 00:18:31,869 可以说他是第一次助第一次推反转式或者第四次回第二 418 00:18:31,869 --> 00:18:33,930 然后大阳线突破新的第一 419 00:18:33,930 --> 00:18:35,630 把每次回调看作空头发 420 00:18:35,630 --> 00:18:36,769 第二尝试反转 421 00:18:36,769 --> 00:18:40,230 所以这可以看作是D4连续的筑顶尝试 422 00:18:40,230 --> 00:18:42,750 之前尝试在这里制造第二反转 423 00:18:42,750 --> 00:18:45,269 但是像一次尝试制造低两反转 424 00:18:45,269 --> 00:18:47,150 终于成功 425 00:18:48,599 --> 00:18:52,940 超大的阴线收在过去20~30根K线的低点下方 426 00:18:52,940 --> 00:18:54,609 远低于那些低点 427 00:18:54,609 --> 00:18:56,369 市场处于单边下跌 428 00:18:56,369 --> 00:18:59,250 至少会有小的第二段下跌之前 429 00:18:59,250 --> 00:19:02,420 在回调时不断加仓买入的多头放弃了 430 00:19:02,420 --> 00:19:03,920 他们被击溃了 431 00:19:03,920 --> 00:19:05,700 很可能是测量型缺口 432 00:19:05,700 --> 00:19:07,940 多头尝试在这里反转上涨 433 00:19:07,940 --> 00:19:09,880 但是看这个高点和那个低点 434 00:19:09,880 --> 00:19:13,999 这只是对那个低点的突破回测注反转失败还没有完全 435 00:19:13,999 --> 00:19:14,759 然后是大的 436 00:19:14,759 --> 00:19:15,798 第二人没碰到 437 00:19:15,798 --> 00:19:17,439 所以是一口反弹 438 00:19:17,439 --> 00:19:19,278 二 439 00:19:28,539 --> 00:19:31,240 抛物线楔形需要极端的加速移动 440 00:19:31,240 --> 00:19:33,940 作为动能即将衰竭的信号 441 00:19:34,759 --> 00:19:36,460 如果没有极端的移动 442 00:19:36,460 --> 00:19:38,700 交易者就不会精疲力竭 443 00:19:38,700 --> 00:19:41,799 所以趋势仍然可能持续很久 444 00:19:41,950 --> 00:19:43,410 这里三次下跌 445 00:19:43,410 --> 00:19:46,019 一二下降通道很窄 446 00:19:46,019 --> 00:19:48,079 你可以说它是抛物线楔形 447 00:19:48,079 --> 00:19:49,220 但我不会这么说 448 00:19:49,220 --> 00:19:50,880 极端的抛售在哪里 449 00:19:50,880 --> 00:19:52,859 这里有一根不错的阴线 450 00:19:52,859 --> 00:19:55,180 但是和前面这些大K线相比 451 00:19:55,180 --> 00:19:56,299 它的体积很小 452 00:19:56,299 --> 00:19:57,960 这看起来不像是高潮 453 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:00,940 看上去空投并没有精疲力竭 454 00:20:01,519 --> 00:20:03,599 所以尽管存在三推的结构 455 00:20:03,599 --> 00:20:05,319 但这并不是极端的抛售 456 00:20:05,319 --> 00:20:10,359 高潮窄下降通道更有可能只是小反弹 457 00:20:10,359 --> 00:20:11,480 使熊奇 458 00:20:11,480 --> 00:20:12,819 然后继续下跌 459 00:20:12,819 --> 00:20:14,259 创新低 460 00:20:14,759 --> 00:20:17,819 这更像是一个没有什么反弹的下降趋势 461 00:20:17,819 --> 00:20:20,599 而不是抛售高潮的楔形底 462 00:20:23,099 --> 00:20:24,440 没有大阴线 463 00:20:24,440 --> 00:20:25,900 没有极端抛售 464 00:20:25,900 --> 00:20:26,960 没有高潮 465 00:20:26,960 --> 00:20:28,079 没有超卖 466 00:20:28,079 --> 00:20:31,059 所以趋势仍然可以继续走得更远 467 00:20:33,140 --> 00:20:35,680 而且这个结构太小了 468 00:20:35,680 --> 00:20:37,900 很难反转这么大的下降趋势 469 00:20:37,900 --> 00:20:39,819 而且通道太窄 470 00:20:39,980 --> 00:20:41,980 多头最多就是制造一个反弹 471 00:20:43,220 --> 00:20:45,579 然后下降趋势恢复 472 00:20:45,940 --> 00:20:46,980 没有买呀 473 00:20:46,980 --> 00:20:49,940 一根大阳线都看不到 474 00:20:53,799 --> 00:20:54,960 最多只是小反弹 475 00:20:54,960 --> 00:20:55,819 不要做多 476 00:20:55,819 --> 00:20:57,480 在窄下降通道中 477 00:20:57,480 --> 00:21:00,400 不要在反弹上涨时买入 478 00:21:02,420 --> 00:21:05,539 这是美元兑日元的5分钟图 479 00:21:09,059 --> 00:21:10,420 强上涨趋势 480 00:21:10,420 --> 00:21:12,059 然后突然反转下跌 481 00:21:13,779 --> 00:21:14,569 大阴线 482 00:21:14,569 --> 00:21:15,869 两根大阴线 483 00:21:15,869 --> 00:21:17,049 又一根大阴线 484 00:21:17,049 --> 00:21:18,429 三次大的下跌 485 00:21:18,429 --> 00:21:19,229 抛售高潮 486 00:21:19,229 --> 00:21:20,548 连续的抛售高潮 487 00:21:20,548 --> 00:21:23,348 你甚至可以说这些全都是抛售高潮 488 00:21:23,348 --> 00:21:24,859 抛售抛售高潮 489 00:21:24,859 --> 00:21:26,039 抛售高潮 490 00:21:26,039 --> 00:21:27,200 抛售高潮 491 00:21:27,200 --> 00:21:29,180 这是一个抛物线楔形底 492 00:21:29,180 --> 00:21:31,500 同时和这个低点形成了双底 493 00:21:31,500 --> 00:21:34,039 急速上涨回调抛物线 494 00:21:34,039 --> 00:21:36,720 然后上朝通道和这个低点形成双底 495 00:21:36,720 --> 00:21:39,839 你也可以说它是抛物线楔形牛骑 496 00:21:40,869 --> 00:21:42,490 它是抛物线下跌 497 00:21:42,490 --> 00:21:45,359 但仍然在上涨趋势的起涨点上方 498 00:21:45,359 --> 00:21:46,799 大约是50% 499 00:21:46,799 --> 00:21:47,400 回调 500 00:21:47,400 --> 00:21:48,759 在急速上涨后 501 00:21:48,759 --> 00:21:50,299 测试通道的起点 502 00:21:50,299 --> 00:21:53,180 急速上涨回调抛物线通 503 00:21:53,180 --> 00:21:54,559 然后反转下跌 504 00:21:54,559 --> 00:21:56,200 测试那个通道的起点 505 00:21:56,200 --> 00:21:58,000 非常漂亮的阳线 506 00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,880 这是合理的买点 507 00:22:03,019 --> 00:22:05,660 如果你画一个最拟合的通道 508 00:22:06,699 --> 00:22:09,818 尽可能把K线都放在通道里面 509 00:22:15,299 --> 00:22:16,700 有很多大阴线 510 00:22:16,700 --> 00:22:19,940 但是每根阴线后面的跟随一系列的抛售高潮 511 00:22:19,940 --> 00:22:22,170 后续的跟随都不好 512 00:22:22,170 --> 00:22:25,630 你必须想到这是不可持续的价格行为 513 00:22:25,630 --> 00:22:27,809 很有可能是震荡区间中的下跌 514 00:22:27,809 --> 00:22:28,309 波段 515 00:22:28,309 --> 00:22:30,440 大涨大跌或者是牛企 516 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,470 大市场至少会有几段反弹 517 00:22:34,069 --> 00:22:36,309 每根大阴线之后都是阳线 518 00:22:36,309 --> 00:22:38,569 好的下降趋势不是这样的 519 00:22:38,569 --> 00:22:42,589 这样的下降通道离多头突破不远了 520 00:22:45,579 --> 00:22:49,740 下降通道牛企很可能会向上突破 521 00:22:50,739 --> 00:22:51,838 再讲一遍 522 00:22:51,838 --> 00:22:54,058 上涨趋势50% 523 00:22:54,058 --> 00:22:57,538 回调可能是抛物线楔形牛企 524 00:23:02,400 --> 00:23:05,440 趋势中总能找到三推楔形的结构 525 00:23:05,440 --> 00:23:08,839 而强趋势中的楔形背景是不好的 526 00:23:08,839 --> 00:23:10,500 通常是小反转 527 00:23:10,500 --> 00:23:12,680 而不是大反转 528 00:23:14,359 --> 00:23:15,920 非常强的下降趋势 529 00:23:15,920 --> 00:23:19,519 如果你在实盘交易中观察这段行情的发展 530 00:23:19,759 --> 00:23:22,000 你会不断地看到三推楔行 531 00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,720 然而当通道这么窄的时候 532 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:25,880 他是几乎没什么 533 00:23:25,880 --> 00:23:28,740 每个所谓下跌趋势后都是小反弹 534 00:23:28,740 --> 00:23:29,779 是雄奇 535 00:23:29,779 --> 00:23:32,170 然后回继续下跌 536 00:23:32,650 --> 00:23:33,970 没有显著的买压 537 00:23:35,250 --> 00:23:36,549 这里一根小阳线 538 00:23:36,549 --> 00:23:38,450 那里一根小阳线 539 00:23:38,450 --> 00:23:40,609 记住我的80%法则 540 00:23:40,609 --> 00:23:44,609 强趋势中80%的反转尝试都会失败 541 00:23:44,609 --> 00:23:46,450 趋势会继续 542 00:23:48,940 --> 00:23:51,980 三推下跌负123 543 00:23:51,980 --> 00:23:52,500 很窄的 544 00:23:52,500 --> 00:23:53,539 是楔形底吗 545 00:23:53,539 --> 00:23:54,859 阳线在哪里 546 00:23:54,859 --> 00:23:56,170 看不到买压 547 00:23:56,170 --> 00:23:58,529 这不是一个底部反转的机会 548 00:23:58,529 --> 00:24:00,109 即使有一些上涨 549 00:24:00,109 --> 00:24:01,779 也只是雄起反弹 550 00:24:01,779 --> 00:24:03,380 然后回继续下跌 551 00:24:03,380 --> 00:24:04,359 又有三推了 552 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:05,380 找到了另一个歇息 553 00:24:05,380 --> 00:24:06,160 有下影线 554 00:24:06,160 --> 00:24:07,140 有小阳线 555 00:24:07,140 --> 00:24:08,740 这是一个好的买点吗 556 00:24:08,740 --> 00:24:10,490 不是这个下降 557 00:24:10,490 --> 00:24:13,049 所有的上涨窄大概率都是小反弹 558 00:24:13,049 --> 00:24:16,430 多头能期待的最好结果也就是小的震荡区间 559 00:24:16,430 --> 00:24:18,909 而且震荡完很可能还要继续下跌 560 00:24:18,909 --> 00:24:20,088 这里有一个缺口 561 00:24:20,088 --> 00:24:21,669 这个低点和那个高点之间 562 00:24:21,669 --> 00:24:23,308 它很可能是测量型缺口 563 00:24:23,308 --> 00:24:26,019 它确实是测量型缺口 564 00:24:26,019 --> 00:24:27,519 又有一个楔形底 565 00:24:27,519 --> 00:24:28,619 应该买入吗 566 00:24:28,619 --> 00:24:30,019 可以在这里做多吗 567 00:24:30,019 --> 00:24:31,579 很窄的下降通道 568 00:24:31,579 --> 00:24:35,170 小反弹大概率是雄奇 569 00:24:35,490 --> 00:24:36,809 又有楔形底了 570 00:24:36,809 --> 00:24:39,730 当然趋势总有一天会反转的 571 00:24:39,730 --> 00:24:43,289 新手在下降趋势中不断看到楔形底 572 00:24:44,089 --> 00:24:46,650 这是一个几乎没什么反弹的下降区域 573 00:24:46,650 --> 00:24:48,990 每次反弹只持续1~3根K线 574 00:24:48,990 --> 00:24:51,259 而且涨幅很小 575 00:24:51,619 --> 00:24:53,799 所有的这些反弹都是雄起 576 00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:57,599 下降趋势会继续在下降趋势中 577 00:24:57,599 --> 00:25:00,140 尤其是没什么反弹的下降趋势 578 00:25:00,140 --> 00:25:02,670 不要急着找楔形底 579 00:25:02,990 --> 00:25:04,930 这些都只是小反弹 580 00:25:04,930 --> 00:25:07,509 下降趋势会继续 581 00:25:10,500 --> 00:25:12,579 在窄通道里不要做反转 582 00:25:12,579 --> 00:25:16,460 因为窄通道在更高的时间周期上就是突破 583 00:25:17,130 --> 00:25:18,890 假如这是5分钟图 584 00:25:18,890 --> 00:25:20,769 那么你在15分钟图上看 585 00:25:20,769 --> 00:25:23,470 这就是连续几根大阴线收在最低 586 00:25:23,470 --> 00:25:24,849 遇到这种情况 587 00:25:24,849 --> 00:25:26,289 不要做多 588 00:25:30,480 --> 00:25:33,259 一路下跌全都是缺这个高点 589 00:25:33,259 --> 00:25:34,119 那个低点 590 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:35,160 这个突破缺口 591 00:25:35,160 --> 00:25:36,640 这些高点之间有缺口 592 00:25:36,640 --> 00:25:38,949 这个低点这个高点之间有区别 593 00:25:38,949 --> 00:25:42,710 一路下跌到出非常强的下降趋势 594 00:25:42,910 --> 00:25:45,089 当你看到一路上都是缺口 595 00:25:45,089 --> 00:25:47,670 而且反弹只持续1~2根K线 596 00:25:47,670 --> 00:25:50,159 没有任何连续的大阳线 597 00:25:50,358 --> 00:25:52,398 做多想都不要想 598 00:25:52,398 --> 00:25:53,979 当你看到上涨的时候 599 00:25:53,979 --> 00:25:55,578 耐心等他失败 600 00:25:55,578 --> 00:25:56,959 然后再反转 601 00:25:56,959 --> 00:25:59,289 下跌时卖出做空 602 00:26:01,180 --> 00:26:03,619 压住趋势会恢复预期 603 00:26:03,619 --> 00:26:05,180 每次反弹都是雄起 604 00:26:06,180 --> 00:26:08,059 不断的寻找做空的机会 605 00:26:08,059 --> 00:26:09,680 尝试反转上涨 606 00:26:09,680 --> 00:26:11,019 在阴线下方卖出 607 00:26:11,019 --> 00:26:11,880 稍微止跌 608 00:26:11,880 --> 00:26:13,319 尝试形成底部 609 00:26:13,319 --> 00:26:14,599 在阴线下方迈出 610 00:26:14,599 --> 00:26:15,759 在前一根K线的下方 611 00:26:15,759 --> 00:26:17,079 在前一根K线的下方 612 00:26:17,079 --> 00:26:19,559 前一根K线的下方迈出 613 00:26:21,240 --> 00:26:23,559 再次强调80%法则 614 00:26:23,559 --> 00:26:28,230 强势趋势中80%的反转尝试会失败 615 00:26:28,390 --> 00:26:30,589 他们会变成骑行趋势 616 00:26:30,589 --> 00:26:32,069 会继续 617 00:26:36,900 --> 00:26:39,380 楔形顶123 618 00:26:39,380 --> 00:26:40,759 但是卖压在哪里 619 00:26:40,759 --> 00:26:42,759 非常强势的多头突破 620 00:26:42,759 --> 00:26:44,339 回调只有一根小阴线 621 00:26:44,339 --> 00:26:45,579 确实是第三推 622 00:26:45,579 --> 00:26:48,779 但是看看从这里涨上来过程中的回调 623 00:26:48,779 --> 00:26:51,220 每次回调只持续1~2根K线 624 00:26:51,220 --> 00:26:52,299 而且跌幅很小 625 00:26:52,299 --> 00:26:54,940 空投能得到的最好结果是震荡区间 626 00:26:54,940 --> 00:26:57,180 而不是下降趋势 627 00:26:57,650 --> 00:26:58,970 做空的胜率很低 628 00:27:01,529 --> 00:27:02,670 又一个楔形顶 629 00:27:02,670 --> 00:27:04,759 新手这次肯定要成功 630 00:27:04,759 --> 00:27:05,799 兵线收在最低 631 00:27:05,799 --> 00:27:06,579 突破买单 632 00:27:06,579 --> 00:27:08,519 他跌破了他的低点买单 633 00:27:08,519 --> 00:27:10,000 如果空头挂突破单 634 00:27:10,000 --> 00:27:10,740 第三次 635 00:27:10,740 --> 00:27:11,660 这里空气好 636 00:27:11,660 --> 00:27:13,900 新手想想这么多反转的尝试 637 00:27:13,900 --> 00:27:14,380 每次空 638 00:27:14,380 --> 00:27:15,700 然而这些微调都太小了 639 00:27:15,700 --> 00:27:16,420 价格就上涨了 640 00:27:16,420 --> 00:27:18,179 连续的大阴线在哪里 641 00:27:18,179 --> 00:27:21,009 空头强势的证据在哪里 642 00:27:21,210 --> 00:27:22,809 即使这是第三推 643 00:27:22,809 --> 00:27:24,289 单独一个做空信号 644 00:27:24,289 --> 00:27:28,690 K线不足以反转左边的上涨趋势 645 00:27:30,579 --> 00:27:32,039 又可以画楔形顶 646 00:27:32,039 --> 00:27:32,740 又有做空 647 00:27:32,740 --> 00:27:34,519 这些都是好的做空信号 648 00:27:34,519 --> 00:27:37,900 这里这里这里现在是第四 649 00:27:37,900 --> 00:27:39,019 总该成功了吧 650 00:27:39,019 --> 00:27:40,420 注确实成功之前 651 00:27:40,420 --> 00:27:41,539 最终趋势会反转 652 00:27:41,539 --> 00:27:42,259 下多钱了 653 00:27:42,259 --> 00:27:44,119 但这些都是低概率的做法 654 00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:45,900 单单凭借一个做空信号 655 00:27:45,900 --> 00:27:49,039 K线不足以成为做空楔形顶的理由 656 00:27:49,039 --> 00:27:52,240 必须要看到麦压作为空头强势的相当回调 657 00:27:52,240 --> 00:27:53,220 这么非常小 658 00:27:53,220 --> 00:27:55,319 通道这么窄的时候 659 00:27:56,069 --> 00:27:57,910 看不到明显的麦芽 660 00:27:57,910 --> 00:28:00,349 所以只考虑做多 661 00:28:00,669 --> 00:28:02,449 每当下跌回调的时候 662 00:28:02,449 --> 00:28:04,650 多头就再次买入 663 00:28:04,849 --> 00:28:07,809 例如在阳线的上方下跌之后上涨 664 00:28:07,809 --> 00:28:08,970 在阳线的上方买 665 00:28:08,970 --> 00:28:10,130 下跌之后上涨 666 00:28:10,130 --> 00:28:11,849 在那个十字星的上方买 667 00:28:11,849 --> 00:28:13,279 或者在这根K线 668 00:28:13,279 --> 00:28:15,940 甚至这根阳线上方买入 669 00:28:16,259 --> 00:28:17,420 又有第三推 670 00:28:17,420 --> 00:28:18,599 最终会反转 671 00:28:18,599 --> 00:28:21,609 但它仍然是一笔低胜率的交易 672 00:28:21,849 --> 00:28:24,630 等看到3~4根连续的阴线在做空 673 00:28:24,630 --> 00:28:25,789 胜率更高 674 00:28:25,789 --> 00:28:27,910 注而且有小双顶 675 00:28:27,910 --> 00:28:32,250 第二做空入场点左边的背景不支持反转 676 00:28:32,250 --> 00:28:35,980 这比单独一根做空信号K线重要的多 677 00:28:36,099 --> 00:28:38,380 这是一个没什么回调的上涨趋势 678 00:28:38,380 --> 00:28:40,339 不要考虑做空 679 00:28:42,039 --> 00:28:43,240 很窄的通道 680 00:28:43,240 --> 00:28:45,289 我没有画出通道的下沿 681 00:28:45,289 --> 00:28:47,769 但很明显这是一个非常窄的通道 682 00:28:47,769 --> 00:28:49,410 在更高的时间周期上 683 00:28:49,410 --> 00:28:51,509 这就是一次多头突破 684 00:28:51,509 --> 00:28:53,750 你只应该考虑做多 685 00:28:53,930 --> 00:28:55,849 如果没有看到好的麦亚 686 00:28:55,849 --> 00:28:57,029 那就一直压住 687 00:28:57,029 --> 00:28:58,930 所有的下跌都是牛骑 688 00:28:58,930 --> 00:29:00,720 而不是反转 689 00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,160 然后在阳线上方买入做多 690 00:29:10,579 --> 00:29:11,720 刚才说了 691 00:29:11,720 --> 00:29:13,089 在强趋势中 692 00:29:13,089 --> 00:29:15,809 大部分三推楔形的反转尝试都会 693 00:29:15,809 --> 00:29:18,470 然而这是再强的趋势也会结束 694 00:29:18,470 --> 00:29:21,569 并且往往是以某种楔形结束 695 00:29:26,059 --> 00:29:27,099 很多楔形底 696 00:29:27,099 --> 00:29:29,019 这些都没有意义 697 00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:31,240 下降通道太窄 698 00:29:31,240 --> 00:29:32,880 无法指望趋势反转 699 00:29:32,880 --> 00:29:35,240 现在做多还为时过早 700 00:29:35,750 --> 00:29:38,349 这是一个没什么反弹的下降趋势 701 00:29:38,349 --> 00:29:39,250 通道很窄 702 00:29:39,250 --> 00:29:41,470 在更高的时间周期上就是一次空 703 00:29:41,470 --> 00:29:43,179 不要想着做反转了 704 00:29:43,179 --> 00:29:45,199 而是应该预期反转失败 705 00:29:45,199 --> 00:29:47,419 然后再雄奇做空 706 00:29:52,000 --> 00:29:55,250 当你看到一个下降趋势中没有连续的大阴线 707 00:29:55,250 --> 00:29:57,190 注复习14亿 708 00:29:57,190 --> 00:29:59,950 这个下降趋势里面没有连续的大阴线 709 00:29:59,950 --> 00:30:02,089 但是一直在制造缺口 710 00:30:02,089 --> 00:30:06,039 所以不要把它看作震荡区间中的下跌波段注 711 00:30:06,039 --> 00:30:07,819 而是大的下降趋势 712 00:30:07,819 --> 00:30:10,119 这可能是一个几乎没有反弹的下跌 713 00:30:10,119 --> 00:30:11,960 可能会持续很长时间 714 00:30:11,960 --> 00:30:14,640 不要想着买入做反转 715 00:30:16,700 --> 00:30:18,680 现在开始形成阶梯的模式 716 00:30:18,680 --> 00:30:21,660 大阴线跌破了这个低点 717 00:30:22,019 --> 00:30:23,900 但很快回到了它的上方 718 00:30:24,900 --> 00:30:26,819 缺口被填补了 719 00:30:28,319 --> 00:30:30,079 开始看到一些阳线 720 00:30:30,079 --> 00:30:33,880 这里这里这里还有这里和这里 721 00:30:33,880 --> 00:30:36,359 这是买鸭在积累的证据 722 00:30:37,079 --> 00:30:39,140 歇行底一二 723 00:30:39,140 --> 00:30:40,480 我会考虑在这里买入 724 00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:41,609 做多压住 725 00:30:41,609 --> 00:30:43,569 这是急速变通道的下降趋势 726 00:30:43,569 --> 00:30:44,390 急速下跌 727 00:30:44,390 --> 00:30:45,269 第二推 728 00:30:45,269 --> 00:30:48,049 第三推很可能会变成震荡区间 729 00:30:48,049 --> 00:30:51,690 更高胜率的做法是等大反转的结构 730 00:30:53,680 --> 00:30:55,420 强势的大阳线突破 731 00:30:55,420 --> 00:30:56,720 多头很强壮 732 00:30:56,720 --> 00:30:58,039 制造了均线缺口 733 00:30:58,039 --> 00:31:02,490 K线这两根K线的低点完全高于均线 734 00:31:03,549 --> 00:31:06,589 这些K线的低点和均线之间存在缺口 735 00:31:06,589 --> 00:31:07,809 如果再次下跌 736 00:31:07,809 --> 00:31:09,690 很可能是最后一段下跌 737 00:31:09,690 --> 00:31:12,409 然后多头会尝试大反转 738 00:31:12,409 --> 00:31:15,528 更高胜率的做法是要么这里只是做包头皮交易 739 00:31:15,528 --> 00:31:16,969 因为是窄下降通道 740 00:31:16,969 --> 00:31:20,039 第一次反转的尝试很可能只是小反转 741 00:31:20,039 --> 00:31:22,079 下降趋势会尝试恢复 742 00:31:22,079 --> 00:31:24,640 所以包头皮反弹赚了就走 743 00:31:24,640 --> 00:31:26,460 多头的突破足够后强势 744 00:31:26,460 --> 00:31:27,619 这里有均线缺 745 00:31:27,619 --> 00:31:29,299 恢复下降趋势的尝试 746 00:31:29,299 --> 00:31:32,269 可能会在前期低点附近失败 747 00:31:32,470 --> 00:31:35,119 然后多头会尝试制造大反转 748 00:31:35,119 --> 00:31:36,660 在这个大阴线之后 749 00:31:36,660 --> 00:31:38,019 我不会立即买入 750 00:31:38,019 --> 00:31:39,920 但现在有了第二做多入场点 751 00:31:39,920 --> 00:31:42,799 在这里买入的胜率就更高了 752 00:31:43,819 --> 00:31:46,339 低点抬高的大反转机会小 753 00:31:46,339 --> 00:31:49,579 双底这个低点和那个低点在它的上方 754 00:31:49,579 --> 00:31:52,890 它的上方是第二做多入场点 755 00:31:53,500 --> 00:31:56,119 看到多头强势突破后再买入 756 00:31:56,119 --> 00:31:57,279 胜率会更高 757 00:31:57,279 --> 00:31:59,279 尤其是在看到两根大阳线 758 00:31:59,279 --> 00:32:00,699 收在最高再入场 759 00:32:00,699 --> 00:32:03,699 至少会有小的第二段上涨 760 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:06,680 因为多头突破之后有跟随 761 00:32:06,680 --> 00:32:09,480 这里是连续两根阳线 762 00:32:13,500 --> 00:32:15,140 阻力总是一个磁铁 763 00:32:15,140 --> 00:32:17,160 就像支撑是磁铁一样 764 00:32:17,160 --> 00:32:19,279 如果市场在反转上涨 765 00:32:19,279 --> 00:32:21,869 那么阻力就是目标位 766 00:32:22,069 --> 00:32:25,309 每当价格涨到某个阻力位的时候 767 00:32:25,470 --> 00:32:27,190 就会有一些多头止盈 768 00:32:27,190 --> 00:32:28,950 通常会造成价格回调 769 00:32:30,230 --> 00:32:33,150 当上涨趋势遇到某个阻力位 770 00:32:33,609 --> 00:32:35,450 多头会止盈一部分 771 00:32:35,450 --> 00:32:37,809 空头知道多头会止盈一部分 772 00:32:39,049 --> 00:32:41,759 所以也会有人做空包头皮 773 00:32:41,759 --> 00:32:43,180 哪些是阻力 774 00:32:43,180 --> 00:32:47,930 首先前期下降趋势中最近的一个高点是阻力 775 00:32:47,930 --> 00:32:49,650 当价格涨到那里时 776 00:32:49,650 --> 00:32:51,920 空投会尝试制造双顶 777 00:32:51,920 --> 00:32:53,839 多头会在那里止盈一部分 778 00:32:53,839 --> 00:32:54,759 两段上涨 779 00:32:54,759 --> 00:32:56,119 一回调 780 00:32:56,119 --> 00:32:59,480 二楔形底反转的最低目标是十根K线 781 00:32:59,480 --> 00:33:01,019 两段上涨 782 00:33:01,019 --> 00:33:03,079 第一段上涨回调 783 00:33:03,079 --> 00:33:03,980 第二段上涨 784 00:33:03,980 --> 00:33:06,730 前期的高点附近是合理的止盈区域 785 00:33:06,730 --> 00:33:08,309 以防形成双顶 786 00:33:08,309 --> 00:33:09,349 跌破颈线 787 00:33:09,349 --> 00:33:12,569 然后一直跌到mm目标位 788 00:33:14,519 --> 00:33:16,759 这根大阴线是抛售高潮 789 00:33:16,759 --> 00:33:19,039 尝试形成双顶 790 00:33:19,980 --> 00:33:22,380 然而价格向上突破了 791 00:33:22,380 --> 00:33:24,680 可能会去到上方的mm目标位 792 00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:27,059 把双顶的高度翻一倍 793 00:33:27,940 --> 00:33:31,269 可以看到在这里有更多多头卖出止盈 794 00:33:31,269 --> 00:33:34,269 你也可以从这个低点到那个高点画一个 795 00:33:34,269 --> 00:33:37,859 或者把底部震荡区间的高度往上翻一倍 796 00:33:38,059 --> 00:33:40,059 这些都是潜在的阻力区域 797 00:33:41,059 --> 00:33:43,660 这是前期下降趋势中的另一个高点 798 00:33:43,660 --> 00:33:45,000 它是一个重要的高点 799 00:33:45,000 --> 00:33:48,419 因为在它之后连续大阴线跌破创新低 800 00:33:48,419 --> 00:33:50,439 所以涨到这个高点附近时 801 00:33:50,439 --> 00:33:52,558 也会有多头止盈 802 00:33:58,980 --> 00:34:00,880 楔形底是下降通道 803 00:34:00,880 --> 00:34:02,970 而下降通道是牛骑 804 00:34:02,970 --> 00:34:05,630 75%的概率会向上突破 805 00:34:05,630 --> 00:34:08,789 只有25%的概率会加速向下突破 806 00:34:08,789 --> 00:34:11,570 然后跌到mm目标位 807 00:34:12,099 --> 00:34:14,739 多头突破并不代表进入上涨趋势 808 00:34:14,739 --> 00:34:17,599 只是价格突破了下降通道的上沿之后 809 00:34:17,599 --> 00:34:18,980 可以进入震荡区间 810 00:34:18,980 --> 00:34:19,619 就像这样 811 00:34:19,619 --> 00:34:21,679 然而一旦进入了震荡区域 812 00:34:21,679 --> 00:34:23,998 多头就会尝试制造大多空双方的概率 813 00:34:23,998 --> 00:34:24,398 就像这样 814 00:34:24,398 --> 00:34:25,958 不再悬殊 815 00:34:31,199 --> 00:34:33,528 楔形顶是上涨通道 816 00:34:33,528 --> 00:34:38,028 上涨通道使雄起75%的概率会被向下跌破 817 00:34:38,028 --> 00:34:39,989 至少变成震荡区间 818 00:34:39,989 --> 00:34:42,668 有可能会变成下降趋势的楔形顶 819 00:34:42,668 --> 00:34:45,068 正好在前期高点附近 820 00:34:47,820 --> 00:34:50,500 所以是一系列抢购高潮测试 821 00:34:50,500 --> 00:34:54,619 前期高点可能会变成一个大震荡区间的顶部 822 00:34:54,940 --> 00:34:56,858 上涨通道雄奇 823 00:34:56,858 --> 00:34:59,619 只有25%的概率会加速上涨 824 00:34:59,619 --> 00:35:00,659 形成新的上涨 825 00:35:00,659 --> 00:35:04,338 75%的概率会跌破通道下沿 826 00:35:04,610 --> 00:35:06,989 其实就是跌破上涨趋势线 827 00:35:06,989 --> 00:35:07,690 就像这样 828 00:35:07,690 --> 00:35:09,980 市场可以只是横向震荡一段时间 829 00:35:09,980 --> 00:35:14,099 但75%的概率通道会被跌破 830 00:35:18,320 --> 00:35:19,679 在空头看来 831 00:35:19,679 --> 00:35:20,519 这是一个大 832 00:35:20,519 --> 00:35:21,539 还有楔形顶 833 00:35:21,539 --> 00:35:24,179 这里有很多震荡区间的价格行为 834 00:35:24,179 --> 00:35:27,130 然后开始出现连续的抢购高潮 835 00:35:27,278 --> 00:35:28,978 第二做空入场点 836 00:35:28,978 --> 00:35:30,639 第一做空入场点是在那里 837 00:35:30,639 --> 00:35:32,518 然后大的下方住十字星星 838 00:35:32,518 --> 00:35:34,119 暂停在它的下方 839 00:35:34,119 --> 00:35:35,679 一个tick开仓做空更好用 840 00:35:35,679 --> 00:35:37,119 这里有一个双顶雄起 841 00:35:37,119 --> 00:35:39,239 这个高点和那个高点 842 00:35:39,239 --> 00:35:41,500 然后有阴线收在低位 843 00:35:41,500 --> 00:35:43,460 这是一个合理的做空点 844 00:35:43,460 --> 00:35:46,360 压住下跌波段确实成功了 845 00:35:50,000 --> 00:35:54,920 楔形底75%的概率至少会有小的多头突破 846 00:35:55,289 --> 00:35:58,050 这里多头制造了非常强势的突破 847 00:35:58,050 --> 00:35:59,130 楔形底 848 00:35:59,130 --> 00:36:00,750 这里有很多买压 849 00:36:00,750 --> 00:36:03,409 而且空投创新低失败了 850 00:36:03,670 --> 00:36:05,000 反转上涨 851 00:36:05,000 --> 00:36:06,639 现在这里有阳线 852 00:36:06,639 --> 00:36:07,699 这里有阳线 853 00:36:07,699 --> 00:36:09,920 这是第三次尝试反转上涨 854 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:13,070 也可以说空投是第三次突破失败了 855 00:36:13,070 --> 00:36:15,130 空O图尝试在这里跌破 856 00:36:15,130 --> 00:36:16,489 这里再次尝试 857 00:36:16,489 --> 00:36:19,449 最后是这里空投不断尝试向下突破 858 00:36:19,449 --> 00:36:21,909 但一直被多头埋起来 859 00:36:22,349 --> 00:36:24,150 所以空投最终放弃了 860 00:36:25,429 --> 00:36:26,550 这是放弃K线 861 00:36:26,550 --> 00:36:28,630 空投正在放弃 862 00:36:31,360 --> 00:36:32,920 这里有一个楔形底 863 00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:37,690 123注楔形牛骑75% 864 00:36:37,690 --> 00:36:41,438 上涨之后上突破至少会变成震荡区间 865 00:36:41,438 --> 00:36:43,358 左边是急速变通道的上限 866 00:36:43,358 --> 00:36:46,090 现在价格回调测试了通道的起点 867 00:36:46,090 --> 00:36:48,469 75%的概率至少会横盘 868 00:36:48,469 --> 00:36:51,438 25%的概率会加速跌破 869 00:36:51,438 --> 00:36:57,369 然后至少是两段下跌25%的情况在这里就发生了 870 00:36:57,369 --> 00:37:00,380 尝试在支撑附近形成楔形底 871 00:37:00,380 --> 00:37:01,780 强突破之后 872 00:37:01,780 --> 00:37:03,860 第一次回调形成的低点 873 00:37:03,860 --> 00:37:05,619 也就是通道的75的时间 874 00:37:05,619 --> 00:37:06,679 往往是指上涨 875 00:37:06,679 --> 00:37:08,380 有买盘 876 00:37:09,280 --> 00:37:13,340 但这里空投成功的向下突破了25%的时候 877 00:37:13,340 --> 00:37:15,480 会出现这样的情况 878 00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,139 空投可以在那根大阴线的收盘开仓做空 879 00:37:19,139 --> 00:37:22,630 或者他们可以等待双顶雄起注反弹 880 00:37:22,630 --> 00:37:24,110 等待某种形式的反弹 881 00:37:24,110 --> 00:37:24,909 然后再次 882 00:37:24,909 --> 00:37:26,269 所以有了小双顶的结构 883 00:37:26,269 --> 00:37:30,019 这个高点和那个高点这根阴线是好的做空信号 884 00:37:30,019 --> 00:37:31,500 这是合理的做空机会 885 00:37:31,500 --> 00:37:34,340 再次跌破之后反弹超过阴线 886 00:37:34,340 --> 00:37:37,139 下方是第一做空入场点 887 00:37:40,579 --> 00:37:44,469 楔形牛企本该上涨75%的概率 888 00:37:44,469 --> 00:37:48,889 但是被空头必须考虑到会跌到mm目标位就在这个地方 889 00:37:48,889 --> 00:37:53,309 所以空头在这个位置止盈至少一部分是合理的 890 00:37:54,230 --> 00:37:56,230 可以看到这里有一些买 891 00:37:56,230 --> 00:37:57,750 他也在前期的低点附近 892 00:37:57,750 --> 00:37:59,909 这是另一个止盈的理由 893 00:38:02,500 --> 00:38:05,500 这是标普500指数的月K线 894 00:38:07,019 --> 00:38:09,380 最左边是1987年的崩盘 895 00:38:09,380 --> 00:38:10,880 三次向上的推动 896 00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:12,219 一回调 897 00:38:12,219 --> 00:38:13,639 二回调 898 00:38:13,639 --> 00:38:16,079 第三推中嵌套了更小的楔形 899 00:38:16,909 --> 00:38:19,170 但这是一个很窄的上涨通道 900 00:38:19,170 --> 00:38:21,250 上涨趋势线被跌破了 901 00:38:21,250 --> 00:38:23,230 但是然后呢 902 00:38:24,449 --> 00:38:25,369 加速上涨 903 00:38:25,369 --> 00:38:27,429 没有成功反转下跌 904 00:38:27,429 --> 00:38:30,010 但是空投的突破失败了 905 00:38:31,099 --> 00:38:33,079 空投在这里再次尝试 906 00:38:33,079 --> 00:38:34,340 又第三次尝试 907 00:38:34,340 --> 00:38:36,019 下跌还是非常窄的 908 00:38:36,019 --> 00:38:37,260 上涨楔形通道 909 00:38:37,260 --> 00:38:39,420 空投突破失败 910 00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:44,619 在某个时刻 911 00:38:44,619 --> 00:38:46,920 比如连续3~4根阳线之后 912 00:38:46,920 --> 00:38:50,579 你必须意识到多头会涨到某个mm目标位 913 00:38:50,579 --> 00:38:51,829 事实也是如此 914 00:38:51,829 --> 00:38:55,929 月K线上出现了连续上涨13根K线的上涨微通道 915 00:38:55,929 --> 00:38:58,150 强得令人难以置信 916 00:38:59,800 --> 00:39:02,500 这开启了一个持续6年的上涨趋势 917 00:39:02,500 --> 00:39:04,489 涨了300点 918 00:39:04,809 --> 00:39:07,329 一切都从加速突破楔形顶开始 919 00:39:07,329 --> 00:39:10,849 加速突破楔形顶的概率是25% 920 00:39:11,170 --> 00:39:15,489 这是过去50年中最成功的多头突破之一 921 00:39:21,139 --> 00:39:23,719 这节课我首先讲了抛物线楔形 922 00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:26,750 以及它们是如何反转的 923 00:39:26,909 --> 00:39:30,789 我还讲了强趋势中总是有很多三推楔型 924 00:39:32,179 --> 00:39:33,980 但如果通道很窄的话 925 00:39:33,980 --> 00:39:36,619 那些反转的尝试都只是小反转 926 00:39:36,619 --> 00:39:37,960 会变成骑行 927 00:39:37,960 --> 00:39:40,179 然后趋势会继续 928 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:44,699 我是阿尔布鲁克斯 929 00:39:44,699 --> 00:39:46,980 感谢观看布鲁克斯交易课程 930 00:39:46,980 --> 00:39:50,000 楔形的第四节课就先讲到这里
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