BV1uMEx6BE9x · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:04,980 --> 00:00:05,700 大家好 2 00:00:05,700 --> 00:00:07,820 今天是6月6号星期六 3 00:00:07,820 --> 00:00:09,900 我们继续分析美股 4 00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:12,779 本期内容包括对基本面的跟进 5 00:00:12,779 --> 00:00:16,140 随后分析大盘指数和热门股票 6 00:00:18,260 --> 00:00:21,539 SPACEX路演启动 7 00:00:21,929 --> 00:00:24,940 史上最大IPO路演启动 8 00:00:24,940 --> 00:00:31,839 SPACEX正式启动史上最大规模IPO路演计划募资750亿美元 9 00:00:31,839 --> 00:00:34,140 华尔街投行全力造势 10 00:00:34,140 --> 00:00:37,560 向潜在投资者推荐其股票 11 00:00:37,560 --> 00:00:41,709 此次发行价定为每股135美元 12 00:00:41,709 --> 00:00:47,789 预计上市后估值将高达1.77万亿至1.8万亿美元 13 00:00:47,789 --> 00:00:51,009 引发全球资本市场高度关注 14 00:00:51,009 --> 00:00:54,109 AI业务百倍增长预期 15 00:00:54,109 --> 00:00:56,469 为支撑天价估值 16 00:00:56,469 --> 00:00:59,380 华尔街投行给出核心逻辑 17 00:00:59,380 --> 00:01:07,530 SPACEX的AI部门必须在2030年前实现约100倍的营收增长 18 00:01:07,530 --> 00:01:08,569 高盛预测 19 00:01:08,569 --> 00:01:15,689 AI业务收入将从32亿美元飙升至3220亿美元 20 00:01:15,689 --> 00:01:18,469 另一个机构甚至预测到 21 00:01:18,469 --> 00:01:24,290 2031年该板块营收可达7550亿美元 22 00:01:25,620 --> 00:01:28,379 三大板块与广阔市场 23 00:01:28,379 --> 00:01:34,120 招股书将业务划分为太空星链和AI3大板块 24 00:01:34,689 --> 00:01:39,489 预计总可触达市场高达28.5万亿美元 25 00:01:39,489 --> 00:01:43,359 其中AI业务独占26.5万亿 26 00:01:43,359 --> 00:01:45,340 尽管前景宏大 27 00:01:45,340 --> 00:01:51,609 但高升预计公司自由现金流需熬过2029年的谷底后 28 00:01:51,609 --> 00:01:54,530 方能在2031年实现转正 29 00:01:55,569 --> 00:01:58,299 巨额亏损与估值争议 30 00:01:58,299 --> 00:02:00,780 天价估值引发市场质疑 31 00:02:00,780 --> 00:02:05,198 陈星给出的公允估值仅7800亿美元 32 00:02:05,198 --> 00:02:06,599 不足官方目标 33 00:02:06,599 --> 00:02:11,870 一般受兴建研发及XAI合并投入影响 34 00:02:11,870 --> 00:02:15,800 公司2025年净亏损近50亿美元 35 00:02:15,800 --> 00:02:20,319 2026年一季度再亏损约43亿美元 36 00:02:20,319 --> 00:02:24,280 高市效率面临严峻考验 37 00:02:25,379 --> 00:02:27,400 路演盛况空前 38 00:02:27,400 --> 00:02:28,500 美国银行 39 00:02:28,500 --> 00:02:32,769 摩根大通等相继举办盛大客户活动 40 00:02:32,769 --> 00:02:36,068 SPACEX高管亲自出席推介 41 00:02:36,068 --> 00:02:39,430 马斯克也视频连线助阵 42 00:02:39,430 --> 00:02:43,009 共有23家金融机构参与承销 43 00:02:43,009 --> 00:02:45,610 预计承销费超5亿美元 44 00:02:45,610 --> 00:02:46,830 马斯特表示 45 00:02:46,830 --> 00:02:49,530 公司正进入新增长阶段 46 00:02:49,530 --> 00:02:54,650 急需资金助力纳斯达克上市敲定 47 00:02:54,650 --> 00:02:59,919 SPACEX定于6月12日在纳斯达克正式挂牌 48 00:02:59,919 --> 00:03:02,560 股票代码SPCX 49 00:03:03,719 --> 00:03:07,259 本次拟发行约5.556亿股 50 00:03:07,259 --> 00:03:09,680 计划筹集750亿美元 51 00:03:09,680 --> 00:03:12,310 将轻松超越沙特阿美 52 00:03:12,310 --> 00:03:17,069 成为人类历史上融资规模最大的首次公开募股 53 00:03:17,069 --> 00:03:20,629 开启商业航天新纪元 54 00:03:23,520 --> 00:03:27,360 AMD数据中心业务强势领跑华尔街 55 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:29,879 密集上调目标价 56 00:03:31,030 --> 00:03:33,770 财报指引双双超预期 57 00:03:33,770 --> 00:03:37,870 AMD第一季度营收达102.5亿美元 58 00:03:37,870 --> 00:03:40,759 每股收益超出华尔街预期 59 00:03:40,759 --> 00:03:42,580 更令市场振奋的是 60 00:03:42,580 --> 00:03:46,719 其第二季度营收指引高达112亿美元 61 00:03:46,719 --> 00:03:48,490 远超市场预期 62 00:03:48,490 --> 00:03:51,469 强劲的业绩与前瞻指引 63 00:03:51,469 --> 00:03:55,099 为股价提供了坚实的基本面支撑 64 00:03:55,099 --> 00:03:58,789 战tic AI引爆CPU需求 65 00:03:59,150 --> 00:04:04,329 多家机构上调评级的核心逻辑指向代理实业 66 00:04:04,329 --> 00:04:09,319 随着AI应用向自主决策演进 67 00:04:09,319 --> 00:04:14,209 CPU在AI基建中的重要性显著增强 68 00:04:14,209 --> 00:04:17,309 正成为服务器市场中的中期 69 00:04:17,309 --> 00:04:25,040 顺丰AAMD有望在企业端采用浪潮中获得超额收益 70 00:04:26,439 --> 00:04:29,240 服务器市场空间翻倍上修 71 00:04:30,360 --> 00:04:31,879 交银国际指出 72 00:04:31,879 --> 00:04:34,329 管理层将2030年 73 00:04:34,329 --> 00:04:42,490 服务器CPU总潜在市场目标的复合年增长率从18%翻倍 74 00:04:42,490 --> 00:04:45,300 上调至35%以上 75 00:04:45,300 --> 00:04:47,959 直指1200亿美元规模 76 00:04:47,959 --> 00:04:49,649 这预测表明 77 00:04:49,649 --> 00:04:58,819 AI推理对CPU的增量需求正在重塑整个行业的长期增长天花板 78 00:04:59,180 --> 00:05:02,500 算力架构配比根本转变 79 00:05:03,540 --> 00:05:07,850 业界对AI算力的认知发生根本改变 80 00:05:08,170 --> 00:05:09,649 华泰证券指出 81 00:05:09,649 --> 00:05:13,310 在OGTICAI代理时代 82 00:05:13,310 --> 00:05:22,600 GPU与CPU的配置比正从此前的四比一或八比一向一比一演进 83 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,029 AAMD管理层也证实 84 00:05:25,029 --> 00:05:34,110 过去以GPU为主的头节点配置比例正在迅速向均衡方向靠拢 85 00:05:35,480 --> 00:05:38,720 数据中心双引擎协同发力 86 00:05:38,720 --> 00:05:43,519 AAMD数据中心业务一季度营收同比增长57% 87 00:05:43,519 --> 00:05:45,610 持续超越英特尔 88 00:05:45,610 --> 00:05:51,240 下半年第六代EPYCCPU上线 89 00:05:51,240 --> 00:05:56,048 即mi450GPU大规模放量 90 00:05:56,048 --> 00:06:02,048 标志着CPU与GPU双引擎正协同放大成长空间 91 00:06:02,048 --> 00:06:06,930 预计CPU收入同比增幅将超70% 92 00:06:07,209 --> 00:06:09,829 乐观预期下的审慎考量 93 00:06:09,829 --> 00:06:13,189 尽管高盛等机构大幅上调目标价 94 00:06:13,189 --> 00:06:16,533 汇丰研究仍保持审慎 95 00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:18,819 并维持持有评级 96 00:06:18,819 --> 00:06:19,920 该行认为 97 00:06:19,920 --> 00:06:22,019 虽然长期逻辑向好 98 00:06:22,019 --> 00:06:24,168 但2026年下半年 99 00:06:24,168 --> 00:06:26,769 因供应链产能限制 100 00:06:26,769 --> 00:06:29,970 公司盈利仍存在一定下行风险 101 00:06:29,970 --> 00:06:34,009 需密切关注实际交付情况 102 00:06:35,819 --> 00:06:39,339 亚马逊发布听话机器人 103 00:06:40,759 --> 00:06:43,120 新一代机器人听懂人话 104 00:06:43,120 --> 00:06:50,350 亚马逊在伦敦正式发布新一代produce自主移动机器人 105 00:06:50,350 --> 00:06:53,569 支持日常口语指令操控 106 00:06:53,569 --> 00:06:56,589 无需专业编程界面 107 00:06:56,589 --> 00:07:01,720 工人仅凭对话即可指挥其完成重物搬运 108 00:07:01,720 --> 00:07:06,779 标志着仓储自动化向智能化迈出关键一步 109 00:07:06,779 --> 00:07:09,459 百亿欧元加码欧洲市场 110 00:07:09,459 --> 00:07:15,980 初代produce已在美国25座旅约中心投入使用 111 00:07:15,980 --> 00:07:20,129 新款计划于2027年上半年登陆欧洲 112 00:07:20,129 --> 00:07:24,949 为此亚马逊承诺未来数年投入100亿欧元 113 00:07:24,949 --> 00:07:28,699 推进欧洲仓储体系智能化升级 114 00:07:28,699 --> 00:07:37,850 并同步推出触觉机器人walking及STARCK分拣系统 115 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:42,480 白领裁员反哺AI投入 116 00:07:42,480 --> 00:07:45,100 在发布新品的同时 117 00:07:45,100 --> 00:07:48,620 亚马逊正推进AI驱动的裁员计划 118 00:07:48,620 --> 00:07:52,949 去年10月裁减1.4万名总部白领 119 00:07:52,949 --> 00:07:55,829 今年1月再裁1.6万人 120 00:07:55,829 --> 00:07:58,399 以精简管理层级 121 00:07:58,399 --> 00:08:00,839 CEO安迪贾西坦言 122 00:08:00,839 --> 00:08:04,230 省下的资金将转投人工智能 123 00:08:04,230 --> 00:08:07,670 未来企业员工总数大概率下行 124 00:08:08,870 --> 00:08:12,339 高管坚称带动用工增长 125 00:08:12,339 --> 00:08:13,839 面对外界质疑 126 00:08:13,839 --> 00:08:19,029 亚马逊高管反驳了裁员与机器人直接挂钩的观点 127 00:08:19,029 --> 00:08:20,370 他们强调 128 00:08:20,370 --> 00:08:24,370 机器人落地反而倒逼仓储扩招 129 00:08:24,370 --> 00:08:28,180 同等面积下运工数量不降反升 130 00:08:28,180 --> 00:08:30,240 布局机器人业务以来 131 00:08:30,240 --> 00:08:33,379 公司已创造数10万新增就业 132 00:08:33,379 --> 00:08:36,100 创下近10年新高 133 00:08:37,249 --> 00:08:40,129 机构预警机器替代人工 134 00:08:40,129 --> 00:08:42,269 尽管官方乐观 135 00:08:42,269 --> 00:08:45,120 但花旗银行等机构预测到 136 00:08:45,120 --> 00:08:49,339 2035年全球机器人总量或达13亿台 137 00:08:49,339 --> 00:08:54,538 由于人形机器人的投资回报周期优于人力 138 00:08:54,538 --> 00:08:58,169 在盈利导向的商业体系下 139 00:08:58,169 --> 00:09:01,309 AI大规模替代人类岗位 140 00:09:01,309 --> 00:09:04,950 将成为史上空前的产业变革 141 00:09:05,269 --> 00:09:08,909 青年失业催生技能缺口 142 00:09:08,909 --> 00:09:13,049 英国超百万青年陷入失业困境 143 00:09:13,049 --> 00:09:15,230 入门级岗位锐减 144 00:09:15,230 --> 00:09:17,240 加剧了求职竞争 145 00:09:17,240 --> 00:09:20,679 为应对高端技能人才招工难 146 00:09:20,679 --> 00:09:25,419 亚马逊在英国落地超6000个学徒岗位 147 00:09:25,419 --> 00:09:27,710 并提供培训补贴 148 00:09:27,710 --> 00:09:34,870 试图通过技能提升来填补自动化转型带来的人才缺口 149 00:09:35,360 --> 00:09:37,700 好我们看一些热门的标的 150 00:09:37,700 --> 00:09:40,200 我们先看一下亚马逊 151 00:09:40,659 --> 00:09:44,639 好亚马逊的走势呢看起来非常简单哈 152 00:09:44,639 --> 00:09:46,740 如果你把趋势线这么一画 153 00:09:46,740 --> 00:09:49,828 那理论上人家其实给了一个二次探顶 154 00:09:49,828 --> 00:09:52,708 那如果之前认为不是二次探顶 155 00:09:52,708 --> 00:09:54,068 不是双重顶的话 156 00:09:54,068 --> 00:09:56,909 那看到这个横线被跌破 157 00:09:56,909 --> 00:09:59,610 也就是双重顶的颈线被跌破之后 158 00:09:59,610 --> 00:10:01,350 估计大部分人就认可了 159 00:10:01,350 --> 00:10:03,710 这是一个双重顶是吧 160 00:10:03,710 --> 00:10:08,409 因为之前的是不是双重顶也需要去向下破掉这个颈线才行 161 00:10:08,409 --> 00:10:12,259 我们看到这个位置呢实际上是一个重要的支撑位哈 162 00:10:12,659 --> 00:10:14,700 那现在呢支撑位并不重要了 163 00:10:14,700 --> 00:10:16,820 我们要看这波回调的深度问题 164 00:10:16,820 --> 00:10:20,720 我们应该把局部下跌曲线给他先画出来 165 00:10:20,919 --> 00:10:25,179 我们看到日线周五这天也是比较强劲的下跌哈 166 00:10:25,179 --> 00:10:26,809 下跌了3% 167 00:10:26,809 --> 00:10:31,169 相对于他自己来说还算是一根中等偏强的阴线 168 00:10:31,690 --> 00:10:33,690 那这波回撤要回到哪呢 169 00:10:33,690 --> 00:10:36,409 有人看到了这根长的上涨趋势线哈 170 00:10:36,409 --> 00:10:37,330 没错啊 171 00:10:37,330 --> 00:10:38,909 也确实是有可能跌到这 172 00:10:38,909 --> 00:10:40,610 也有可能不跌到那啊 173 00:10:40,610 --> 00:10:44,049 但是跌到哪儿并不太重要哈 174 00:10:44,049 --> 00:10:45,269 不是太重要 175 00:10:45,269 --> 00:10:47,409 因为每一次猜呢也不一定猜的对 176 00:10:47,409 --> 00:10:50,759 我们就看着他什么时候直接就行了 177 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:52,200 对吧嗯 178 00:10:53,240 --> 00:10:55,960 我们看一下它的5分钟图表 179 00:10:57,009 --> 00:11:00,649 嗯文章图表其实比较简单哈 180 00:11:00,649 --> 00:11:02,950 就是你在这画了几天之后 181 00:11:02,950 --> 00:11:06,669 你会发现在这里破位向下突破之后反弹测试 182 00:11:06,669 --> 00:11:09,820 再往下确认的时候就是卖点对 183 00:11:09,820 --> 00:11:11,500 也就是空头入场的位置 184 00:11:11,500 --> 00:11:15,970 我们把这个局部下跌均线一画就可以了 185 00:11:15,970 --> 00:11:18,330 接下来就看直接在右侧点位哈 186 00:11:18,330 --> 00:11:20,610 再去重新做多就可以了 187 00:11:20,610 --> 00:11:23,610 那有人肯定都是说一直持仓哈 188 00:11:24,080 --> 00:11:28,039 嗯一直持仓的话大家自己决定哈 189 00:11:28,039 --> 00:11:30,980 那我们按照波段交易的思路去看哈 190 00:11:30,980 --> 00:11:33,159 嗯对吧 191 00:11:33,159 --> 00:11:34,279 一直持仓的交易者 192 00:11:34,279 --> 00:11:36,068 他有各种理由哈 193 00:11:36,068 --> 00:11:37,568 嗯各种理由 194 00:11:37,568 --> 00:11:39,589 那一直持仓还分析啥呢 195 00:11:39,589 --> 00:11:40,168 对不对 196 00:11:40,168 --> 00:11:41,089 没啥分析了 197 00:11:41,089 --> 00:11:44,039 那遇到那些大回调的那种 198 00:11:44,159 --> 00:11:45,240 那也没办法了 199 00:11:46,279 --> 00:11:49,720 就是说持仓的这个呃好处不是太多哈 200 00:11:49,720 --> 00:11:51,149 嗯那么对他来说 201 00:11:51,149 --> 00:11:55,639 我们主要关注这波下跌的直接右侧架构再去做多就可以了 202 00:11:55,639 --> 00:11:58,460 你看他这波下跌实际上已经跌了多少了 203 00:11:58,460 --> 00:12:00,720 已经跌了11%了哈 204 00:12:00,720 --> 00:12:02,570 稍微再跌一点啊 205 00:12:02,570 --> 00:12:03,730 会好一点 206 00:12:03,730 --> 00:12:05,649 因为波段交易者喜欢啊 207 00:12:05,649 --> 00:12:10,179 稍微跌一点才值得去波段交易是吧 208 00:12:10,720 --> 00:12:13,190 好这是亚马逊 209 00:12:13,509 --> 00:12:15,750 我们看一下PLT2 210 00:12:15,750 --> 00:12:21,839 PLT2的走法呢啊似乎没有走出我们预期的强势的多头波段 211 00:12:21,839 --> 00:12:25,078 相反呢它目前走出了局部震荡行情 212 00:12:26,278 --> 00:12:29,440 那鉴于多头儿如此的拉垮 213 00:12:29,440 --> 00:12:30,960 如此的弱势哈 214 00:12:30,960 --> 00:12:31,919 整体而言 215 00:12:31,919 --> 00:12:34,340 因为空投也同样的强势哈 216 00:12:34,340 --> 00:12:37,129 多空双方差不多的均衡啊 217 00:12:37,129 --> 00:12:40,190 那如果后续空头强劲的发力的话 218 00:12:40,190 --> 00:12:42,919 也要提防进一步深跌的可能性哈 219 00:12:42,919 --> 00:12:47,340 我记得这一波他的这个图呢是被那个空头盯上了对吧 220 00:12:47,340 --> 00:12:48,559 这钱砸下来 221 00:12:48,559 --> 00:12:51,830 那近期呢我们看到了这些止跌的位置 222 00:12:51,830 --> 00:12:55,029 但他没有连续的收出强势的大波段 223 00:12:55,029 --> 00:12:56,629 而是再次被砸了回来 224 00:12:56,629 --> 00:12:59,279 因为空头又开始出来放话了 225 00:12:59,279 --> 00:13:02,159 这样的话多头应该提高警惕度对吧 226 00:13:02,159 --> 00:13:03,259 它是一个震荡 227 00:13:03,259 --> 00:13:04,480 如果跌破下方 228 00:13:04,480 --> 00:13:06,019 多头应该彻底离场 229 00:13:06,019 --> 00:13:08,600 避免说往下伸低哈 230 00:13:08,950 --> 00:13:10,909 说有没有可能不跌下去 231 00:13:10,909 --> 00:13:13,350 因为它目前是一个局部震荡行情 232 00:13:13,350 --> 00:13:15,610 其实它不跌的概率也挺高的啊 233 00:13:15,610 --> 00:13:20,068 也有五六十%的概率在支撑区继续反弹起来是吧 234 00:13:20,068 --> 00:13:21,589 但如果我们的大盘 235 00:13:21,589 --> 00:13:24,669 我们的龙头股都要下跌的话 236 00:13:24,669 --> 00:13:28,830 那PLTR呢可能情况也比较偏向于悲观的情形 237 00:13:28,830 --> 00:13:30,909 也就是说跌破支撑区的情形 238 00:13:30,909 --> 00:13:35,830 所以好下周周一周二要观察向下破位的可能性哈 239 00:13:36,950 --> 00:13:40,090 有人说真难做嗯 240 00:13:40,090 --> 00:13:42,820 其实近一个多月哈 241 00:13:42,820 --> 00:13:45,679 近一两个月很多图都长得很好的哈 242 00:13:45,679 --> 00:13:49,960 但这个图长得不好也不都难做啊 243 00:13:49,960 --> 00:13:52,779 我们看一下5分钟图是吧 244 00:13:52,779 --> 00:13:55,360 5分钟图其实我们画了很多细节哈 245 00:13:55,360 --> 00:13:59,080 就说这波上涨腿我们画了一个支撑位 246 00:13:59,080 --> 00:13:59,860 往下破位 247 00:13:59,860 --> 00:14:01,639 反弹无力的时候应该离场 248 00:14:01,639 --> 00:14:06,580 等待更深的回调止跌才能直接之后才能做 249 00:14:06,580 --> 00:14:07,559 现在想下跌 250 00:14:07,559 --> 00:14:08,320 书上一画 251 00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:10,399 发现还没有真正的质地啊 252 00:14:10,399 --> 00:14:12,659 所以周一周二比较关键 253 00:14:13,179 --> 00:14:16,080 有人说这个图根本就不能再长吃了 254 00:14:16,080 --> 00:14:16,779 没错啊 255 00:14:16,779 --> 00:14:19,570 因为他之前已经涨了这么多啊 256 00:14:19,570 --> 00:14:21,700 这最下边是五块八毛钱哈 257 00:14:21,700 --> 00:14:23,539 价格现在是200多 258 00:14:23,539 --> 00:14:24,220 最高位 259 00:14:24,220 --> 00:14:25,480 现在是135哈 260 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:26,860 这都几十倍了哈 261 00:14:26,860 --> 00:14:28,279 所以你不可能 262 00:14:28,279 --> 00:14:29,480 当然一切皆有可能 263 00:14:29,480 --> 00:14:31,379 但是这个图涨了几十倍之后 264 00:14:31,379 --> 00:14:33,279 似乎涨势乏力了 265 00:14:33,279 --> 00:14:36,559 很多人追到了这相对的高位哈 266 00:14:39,600 --> 00:14:42,460 好我们看一下谁呢 267 00:14:42,460 --> 00:14:45,230 我们看一下特斯拉吧 268 00:14:46,389 --> 00:14:50,350 我们的SPACEX很快就要上市了哈 269 00:14:51,429 --> 00:14:53,759 嗯还有几天哈 270 00:14:53,759 --> 00:14:57,000 这样的话我们相关的股票主要还是特斯拉 271 00:14:57,000 --> 00:15:02,559 我们看到周五这几天特斯拉抛售的力度也是相当的强势哈 272 00:15:02,559 --> 00:15:08,450 可见资本市场呢正在等待着这个space x上市哈 273 00:15:09,240 --> 00:15:13,159 好很多资金呢选择了谨慎保守的思路 274 00:15:13,159 --> 00:15:14,240 也就是卖出 275 00:15:14,240 --> 00:15:18,100 我们看特斯拉的这个额日内的图表 276 00:15:18,100 --> 00:15:19,360 实际上有点横盘 277 00:15:19,360 --> 00:15:21,779 或者叫ABC形态这种可能性 278 00:15:21,779 --> 00:15:25,370 那如果周一周二是强劲的反弹起来就没事了哈 279 00:15:25,370 --> 00:15:29,360 但是如果周一像那小小型的反弹 280 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:30,460 给出小型的反弹 281 00:15:30,460 --> 00:15:32,179 然后继续下挫的话 282 00:15:32,179 --> 00:15:35,839 那你就要去找更低的一些位置了 283 00:15:36,399 --> 00:15:37,798 我们看这个轮廓哈 284 00:15:38,958 --> 00:15:39,958 大概看轮廓就行 285 00:15:39,958 --> 00:15:42,019 你看这当前如果是ABC形态 286 00:15:42,019 --> 00:15:44,730 周一势必会强劲的拉升哈 287 00:15:45,009 --> 00:15:47,000 但大家觉得能拉升吗 288 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:50,419 我我我觉得可能多头会尝试一下吧 289 00:15:50,419 --> 00:15:52,860 如果感觉反弹力度太弱的话 290 00:15:52,860 --> 00:15:55,250 多头就会放弃加反控 291 00:15:55,250 --> 00:15:56,529 那就会使劲砸盘啊 292 00:15:56,529 --> 00:15:58,570 去测试更低的这个位置 293 00:15:58,570 --> 00:16:02,049 甚至更更低的这个位置 294 00:16:02,330 --> 00:16:04,250 对吧嗯 295 00:16:05,580 --> 00:16:07,919 好你看空投还是挺强势的哈 296 00:16:07,919 --> 00:16:11,139 但强势并不是说一定一定会暴跌啊 297 00:16:11,139 --> 00:16:14,568 因为它还具备着某种形态的一个支撑区的可能性 298 00:16:14,590 --> 00:16:16,269 ABC形态是吧 299 00:16:16,269 --> 00:16:18,929 或者基本上接近于横盘运动了哈 300 00:16:18,929 --> 00:16:21,570 好这是我们的一个猜想哈 301 00:16:21,570 --> 00:16:24,120 我们再看一下日线 302 00:16:24,480 --> 00:16:27,100 但你光乐观的猜想也不现实哈 303 00:16:27,100 --> 00:16:31,080 市场也完全可以继续往下深低是吧 304 00:16:31,080 --> 00:16:33,360 因为如果空投过强的话 305 00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:37,870 其他股票都摇摇欲坠的感觉的话 306 00:16:37,990 --> 00:16:39,610 资金看到这根阴线 307 00:16:39,610 --> 00:16:41,789 下周一也未必会使劲拉升哈 308 00:16:41,789 --> 00:16:44,190 但这都是还是我们的猜测啊 309 00:16:44,190 --> 00:16:47,850 好一切呢以下一根K线的力度为准 310 00:16:47,850 --> 00:16:49,690 如果多头太过弱势 311 00:16:49,690 --> 00:16:51,549 对多头就不是很友好 312 00:16:51,549 --> 00:16:53,589 他可以再跌回来哈 313 00:16:53,788 --> 00:16:55,509 有人说不可能再跌了 314 00:16:55,509 --> 00:16:57,740 大家可以看看历史啊 315 00:16:58,220 --> 00:17:00,179 凡是看到说不可能的时候 316 00:17:00,179 --> 00:17:01,879 你就说啥都有可能 317 00:17:01,879 --> 00:17:04,539 你看看历史啥都有可能 318 00:17:05,440 --> 00:17:08,619 那叠加space上市多少会受一点影响 319 00:17:08,619 --> 00:17:12,180 具体什么影响不知道啊 320 00:17:12,180 --> 00:17:13,799 没人能预测的到是吧 321 00:17:13,799 --> 00:17:17,490 那属于重大的消息面哈是吧 322 00:17:17,490 --> 00:17:24,078 嗯是属于马斯克相关资产的重大的消息面嗯 323 00:17:26,319 --> 00:17:29,000 好英伟达这个也是呃 324 00:17:29,000 --> 00:17:36,160 我们看到CPU和GPU在配比结构上出现了配比上的一个重大的变更哈 325 00:17:36,160 --> 00:17:37,559 认知上的变更 326 00:17:37,559 --> 00:17:41,579 这样的话是刚才提到的这个AAMD 327 00:17:41,579 --> 00:17:44,250 还有后续的英特尔等等 328 00:17:44,250 --> 00:17:47,970 或许会有继续上涨的潜力哈 329 00:17:47,970 --> 00:17:49,470 那么对英伟达来说 330 00:17:49,470 --> 00:17:53,130 似乎他不再是特别的宠儿了哈 331 00:17:53,130 --> 00:17:55,430 一个呢是它市值过大啊 332 00:17:55,430 --> 00:17:57,670 炒作它艰难啊 333 00:17:57,670 --> 00:18:01,269 一个是他技术面上也确实显现出疲态 334 00:18:01,269 --> 00:18:02,609 不断的有震荡 335 00:18:02,609 --> 00:18:06,900 你看不像那些比如说迈威尔AMD 336 00:18:06,900 --> 00:18:07,460 英特尔 337 00:18:07,460 --> 00:18:08,200 高通等等 338 00:18:08,200 --> 00:18:09,539 市值偏小是吧 339 00:18:09,539 --> 00:18:10,559 他可以炒作 340 00:18:10,559 --> 00:18:12,140 包括这个mu啊 341 00:18:12,140 --> 00:18:14,019 也就是存储芯片什么的 342 00:18:14,019 --> 00:18:17,400 当然那些图并不是说中间没有任何回调哈 343 00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,250 都要提防深度回调 344 00:18:19,250 --> 00:18:20,369 那对英伟达来说 345 00:18:20,369 --> 00:18:24,039 我们明显感受到近期拉涨的乏力 346 00:18:24,039 --> 00:18:27,200 因此呢多头应应该做好 347 00:18:27,200 --> 00:18:31,319 他走宽幅震荡或者是非常弱势多头的可能性 348 00:18:31,319 --> 00:18:36,240 也就是说他每拉升十步回调个七八步 349 00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:39,619 每拉升十步再回调个七八步 350 00:18:39,819 --> 00:18:45,720 因此呢它适合啊这种短线的中线偏短线的一个波段交易哈 351 00:18:45,720 --> 00:18:47,779 如果你信仰长持的话 352 00:18:47,779 --> 00:18:49,460 也不是说完全不可以 353 00:18:50,660 --> 00:18:52,259 但啊效果不是太好啊 354 00:18:52,259 --> 00:18:54,980 盈利性我得强调一下哈 355 00:18:54,980 --> 00:18:58,319 我们看到周五这天也是强劲的大阴线哈 356 00:18:58,319 --> 00:19:03,400 那么下一个重要的点位呢是这里是一百九十五一袋哈 357 00:19:03,400 --> 00:19:06,380 我们其实应该在局部上画一个回调 358 00:19:06,380 --> 00:19:07,839 画一个下跌趋势线啊 359 00:19:07,839 --> 00:19:10,199 嗯说可以带上去吗 360 00:19:10,199 --> 00:19:11,019 当然可以 361 00:19:11,019 --> 00:19:12,690 他再上去 362 00:19:13,089 --> 00:19:14,329 那就看咯 363 00:19:14,329 --> 00:19:20,339 看有没有多头愿意在这根大阴线右边再把它围上去 364 00:19:20,339 --> 00:19:23,700 嗯还是愿意再给更深的回调是吧 365 00:19:24,819 --> 00:19:29,108 我们看一下它的5分钟图对吧啊 366 00:19:29,108 --> 00:19:30,689 它跌破了这个支撑位哈 367 00:19:30,689 --> 00:19:32,489 看看能不能小反弹一下 368 00:19:32,489 --> 00:19:33,588 然后继续跌一下 369 00:19:33,588 --> 00:19:35,169 或者直接V上去再回落 370 00:19:35,169 --> 00:19:38,650 在这里我们特别讨厌无需震荡行情 371 00:19:38,650 --> 00:19:44,039 我们宁可愿意它走直播或者下跌是吧 372 00:19:45,000 --> 00:19:46,000 啊无需震荡 373 00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,619 行情其实不好做哈 374 00:19:48,619 --> 00:19:51,640 你看曾经这里是无序震荡 375 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:53,779 这里也是无序震荡啊 376 00:19:53,779 --> 00:19:54,740 从那个时候开始 377 00:19:54,740 --> 00:19:57,359 大家对他的信仰就减弱了一些啊 378 00:19:57,359 --> 00:20:00,259 因为开始变得复杂了 379 00:20:00,539 --> 00:20:03,619 那越长越有可能变得复杂 380 00:20:05,380 --> 00:20:11,700 好我们看一下CROWDSTRIKE这个图近期也是直勾勾的上涨 381 00:20:11,700 --> 00:20:14,089 比微软的表现要好一点 382 00:20:14,579 --> 00:20:18,380 近期呢我们看到这里有连续四根阴线啊 383 00:20:18,380 --> 00:20:19,700 这根是阴线 384 00:20:19,700 --> 00:20:21,539 这个红线也是阴线 385 00:20:21,539 --> 00:20:23,710 天空缺口看着是绿色的 386 00:20:23,710 --> 00:20:25,710 但它是阴阴线哈 387 00:20:25,710 --> 00:20:27,710 收盘价比前一个交易日要低 388 00:20:27,710 --> 00:20:30,170 那周五又是阴线哈 389 00:20:30,170 --> 00:20:33,190 周四收盘在这周五天空低开往下砸是吧 390 00:20:33,190 --> 00:20:35,349 所以这里是连续四天的下跌 391 00:20:35,349 --> 00:20:38,329 那么这波回调正在进行中 392 00:20:39,839 --> 00:20:40,440 是吧 393 00:20:40,440 --> 00:20:41,279 可以跌到哪 394 00:20:41,279 --> 00:20:42,619 这个就不要去猜哈 395 00:20:42,619 --> 00:20:44,779 他愿意跌到哪就跌到哪 396 00:20:44,779 --> 00:20:46,359 没有固定答案哈 397 00:20:46,359 --> 00:20:48,190 回调的形态 398 00:20:48,630 --> 00:20:50,910 我们看一下5分钟图 399 00:20:52,599 --> 00:20:53,079 是吧 400 00:20:53,079 --> 00:20:55,140 我们一般情况下就会说啊 401 00:20:55,140 --> 00:20:56,559 上涨趋势被跌破 402 00:20:56,559 --> 00:20:59,630 要注意重要支撑位被跌破 403 00:20:59,630 --> 00:21:01,490 跌破反弹无力往下挫 404 00:21:01,490 --> 00:21:03,670 是离场的位置 405 00:21:04,630 --> 00:21:08,309 一般情况下局部波段交易者 406 00:21:08,309 --> 00:21:11,470 他们是在这篇就开始考虑离场了 407 00:21:11,470 --> 00:21:15,630 特别是考虑到很多图表暴涨的前提之下啊 408 00:21:15,630 --> 00:21:18,190 那么回调的需求会增加 409 00:21:18,190 --> 00:21:21,910 我看到这里天空低开之后继续横盘往下砸是吧 410 00:21:21,910 --> 00:21:23,369 横盘盘之后往下砸 411 00:21:23,369 --> 00:21:24,769 这样的话啊 412 00:21:24,769 --> 00:21:28,940 周一主要关注当前这个支撑位的有效性 413 00:21:29,299 --> 00:21:32,599 那么一旦砸就摸这个位置来啊 414 00:21:32,599 --> 00:21:33,940 摸完这个位置还是不行 415 00:21:33,940 --> 00:21:36,170 那就继续往下摸对吧 416 00:21:36,170 --> 00:21:37,309 也可以止跌哈 417 00:21:37,309 --> 00:21:38,589 也可以不止跌 418 00:21:38,589 --> 00:21:41,299 止不止跌交给市场来啊 419 00:21:41,819 --> 00:21:42,680 第二个市场 420 00:21:42,680 --> 00:21:43,920 那么看日线的话 421 00:21:43,920 --> 00:21:48,068 似乎不止跌的概率高一点哈是吧 422 00:21:48,068 --> 00:21:50,720 我们说直勾勾的运动可以双向的 423 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,220 那么折扣上涨表明没什么阻力区啊 424 00:21:54,220 --> 00:21:57,599 那么折扣的下跌表明支撑区域比较少 425 00:21:57,880 --> 00:21:59,180 支撑区比较脆弱 426 00:21:59,180 --> 00:22:00,319 才可以砸回来 427 00:22:00,319 --> 00:22:01,819 对不对 428 00:22:02,059 --> 00:22:02,460 好 429 00:22:02,460 --> 00:22:04,420 我们看下AAMD也是一样哈 430 00:22:04,420 --> 00:22:08,000 直勾勾的上涨也可以反向直勾勾的下跌 431 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:09,819 其实周四就是阴线啊 432 00:22:09,819 --> 00:22:12,299 那么周五又是强劲的大阴线 433 00:22:12,299 --> 00:22:14,099 下方一些重要的支撑位呢 434 00:22:14,099 --> 00:22:18,150 看看能不能被测试到405这一代 435 00:22:18,150 --> 00:22:19,630 这就不知道了哈 436 00:22:19,630 --> 00:22:22,190 我们看一下5分钟图 437 00:22:23,140 --> 00:22:24,420 是吧一样啊 438 00:22:24,420 --> 00:22:31,089 我们在周四周五周四复盘的时候说啊啊这些区域呀如果被跌破的话 439 00:22:31,089 --> 00:22:32,839 也有可能有更深回调啊 440 00:22:32,839 --> 00:22:34,880 啊我们谁也没能想到哈 441 00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:37,019 周五一定会跌5%哈 442 00:22:37,019 --> 00:22:38,779 就是说大盘纳指 443 00:22:38,779 --> 00:22:40,339 但我们曾经说过哈 444 00:22:40,339 --> 00:22:42,779 市场有可能突然有一天啪嚓一下子 445 00:22:42,779 --> 00:22:46,250 指的是大盘跌个400%分之五的 446 00:22:46,250 --> 00:22:49,529 这就告诉你回调是不可避免行吧 447 00:22:50,609 --> 00:22:51,690 注意它能不能上去 448 00:22:51,690 --> 00:22:52,730 周一要看啊 449 00:22:52,730 --> 00:22:54,849 嗯先不要猜底啊 450 00:22:54,849 --> 00:22:56,329 因为他是刚开始 451 00:22:56,329 --> 00:22:56,970 对不对 452 00:22:56,970 --> 00:23:00,839 刚开始就不能那么早的去踩底 453 00:23:01,200 --> 00:23:03,140 好这是这期内容 454 00:23:03,140 --> 00:23:05,279 欢迎大家去看我们的上期内容 455 00:23:05,279 --> 00:23:08,239 以及我们的绿宝石会员的内容啊 456 00:23:08,239 --> 00:23:09,699 这个叫稀里哗啦 457 00:23:09,699 --> 00:23:11,538 下边这个叫噼里啪啦 458 00:23:11,538 --> 00:23:12,479 好了 459 00:23:12,479 --> 00:23:13,939 我们下一个时段再见 460 00:23:13,939 --> 00:23:14,680 拜拜
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