把控风险，识别人性

1
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2026年除了做生意一定要非常理性啊

2
00:00:02,379 --> 00:00:04,580
投资的话谨慎在谨慎以外呢

3
00:00:04,580 --> 00:00:06,080
识人的能力一定要有

4
00:00:06,080 --> 00:00:07,559
就刚才我讲的啊

5
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你给谁你给谁面

6
00:00:09,009 --> 00:00:10,609
你跟什么人在一块啊

7
00:00:10,609 --> 00:00:12,130
决定你能走多远是吧

8
00:00:12,130 --> 00:00:14,089
你身边的人会无时无的影响你

9
00:00:14,089 --> 00:00:15,990
但如果说你能看懂人性

10
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那是一个庆幸啊

11
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如果你看不懂的

12
00:00:18,660 --> 00:00:19,800
有可能是个灾难

13
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实际上这也是我反复的强调的哈

14
00:00:21,879 --> 00:00:23,449
所以你做好了价值投资

15
00:00:23,449 --> 00:00:25,489
实际上看人也不会错的

16
00:00:25,489 --> 00:00:28,789
你会从蛛丝马迹里面找到危险啊

17
00:00:28,789 --> 00:00:31,129
找到这种可能会存在的啊

18
00:00:31,129 --> 00:00:33,079
不予觉察的这种风险啊

19
00:00:33,079 --> 00:00:34,700
其实今天的风险早就来了

20
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只是很多人呢他在温水煮青蛙

21
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他完全是不知不觉就被煮熟了

22
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我讲几个风险啊

23
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就第一个呢就是我们讲过去的这5年

24
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房价腰斩了

25
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第一个啊

26
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第二个就是股市

27
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其实股市这几年绝大多数人是没有赚到钱的啊

28
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虽然看起来很好

29
00:00:51,280 --> 00:00:53,799
但是呢你从价值投资角度实际上是很难判断的

30
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就像很多人在评论区攻击我哈

31
00:00:55,759 --> 00:00:57,159
你讲了某某公司跌了啊

32
00:00:57,159 --> 00:00:57,960
你搞个公模都没了

33
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你像茅台

34
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茅台跌了4年啊

35
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就是用了一星期的时间涨上来了

36
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但是话又说回来

37
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有谁能熬4年的

38
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很多人就在1300啊

39
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1350这种绝望割肉了

40
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所以绝大多数人是没有挣到茅台的钱的

41
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其实呢他挣不到茅台的钱

42
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他更不可能挣到科技的钱

43
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为什么

44
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因为科技的风险比茅台大多了

45
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其实风险大家都知道

46
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只是说能不能心里接受

47
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因为科技绝大多没有业绩的哈

48
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无论是寒武纪啊

49
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无论是这个慕希股份啊

50
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慕希无论是上市的这个摩尔县城

51
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这些公司都是没有价值投资的

52
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最终都会跌到99%

53
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最后都像空气一样全部蒸发掉了

54
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实际上有几个人愿意接受这种现状呢

55
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反而买了这些股票赚钱的人呢

56
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他因为用错误的方式赚到钱

57
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再最后一把又全部输光对吧

58
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就像你在赌场里赚到钱的人很难带走

59
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很难传承一样的

60
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因为你最终还会堵回去的

61
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所以这个呢也是给大家分享难投资这个事呢

62
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它看起来很慢

63
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但它实际上是一种价值观

64
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是因为你很清楚你买的是价值

65
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买的不是价格

66
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买的不是博弈

67
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买的不是零零和游戏

68
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你才能拿得住

69
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你才能接受

70
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我只能躺平吃股息

71
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我也不去碰那些垃圾公司

72
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当我躺在啊顶尖的公司里面亏啊

73
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我也不在垃圾里面去啊

74
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去短期的拥有

75
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所以这个呢就像我们哈看人一样是吧

76
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我们找个人当老婆

77
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还当情人啊

78
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还是当一夜情啊

79
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还是短期啊

80
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快餐

81
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这就是一模一样逻辑

82
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但是很多人呢他在投资里面

83
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为什么他就很难理清呢

84
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是因为这个钱呢

85
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他无法用有钱的东西来衡量对吧

86
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他因为身边这种人刺激他是吧

87
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所以谁赚钱了

88
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这种嫉妒哈

89
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那种羡慕哈

90
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这种想像他一样

91
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用心态会加速他的欲望

92
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所以这也是我每次看到留言的时候

93
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我就心想啊

94
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我靠我说如果这个人价值观不对

95
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我说我绝对不会给他机会哈

96
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让他有改名的机会啊

97
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这就是我在过去的两年直播拉黑了无数的人

98
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原因啊

99
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因为我实在不想让晦气离我太近啊

100
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就这两年我在美国呢其实开心的多了

101
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就这两年其实你看我每天的生活状态啊

102
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就是群山环绕啊

103
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心情气爽

104
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但是呢还得鼓励一些有价值观的人

105
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是因为我有这个啊从小到大胆不服输的精神

106
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但是绝大多数人很难像我一样

107
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就昨天有一个兄弟哎

108
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让我觉得很牛逼啊啊零零后啊

109
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找了一个85年的老婆啊

110
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真的很厉害

111
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实际上我还是挺佩服他的啊

112
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就是零零后早个85年老婆

113
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实际上他在心智上比零零后要成熟多了

114
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因为多大的零售户现在找工作都找不着

115
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但人家已经财务自由了啊

116
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然后呢你拿到美国绿卡啦

117
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然后呢已经有三个孩子了啊

118
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两个还是这个啊代孕

119
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所以说这就是牛逼之处啊

120
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你看吧

121
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我在二十五十六岁的时候

122
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我在想啥呢

123
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我还撅着屁股干活

124
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我想怎么活下来

125
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我下一个生意该怎么做

126
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下一顿饭怎么吃

127
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员工下个月工资怎么发

128
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哎我的生意怎么样能持续

129
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我还在为了短期的这种心态在博弈啊

130
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还在在在在挣扎

131
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但是人家呢已经是财务自由

132
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赖好人生了

133
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实际上我有时候觉得很多人呢他学历不高

134
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但学识很高

135
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这位兄弟看了我4年的视频啊

136
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从02年开始看啊

137
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从02年开始看

138
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我是02年6月份开始拍嘛啊

139
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然后呢把我每个视频都看过了

140
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然后他说原来我不做投资

141
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然后我最喜欢看的一讲人性

142
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可能他从这个人群里面

143
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他发现他身边的人和我身边的人成绩一样

144
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所以他很快的也没有走我那个弯路啊

145
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就是他发现他身边人骗了他之后呢

146
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他立马就跑了

147
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他走的很快

148
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他如果说他不走的话

149
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他大概率就像我在移留到22年

150
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那中间的漩涡

151
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反复的挣扎

152
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反复的痛苦啊

153
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反复的纠结

154
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反复的内耗

155
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最后呢啥也没有了

156
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所以这个是昨天会员见面会的时候

157
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这位小兄弟一段发言呢

158
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其实让我感触很深啊

159
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就是他可能还不懂投资

160
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但他要是研究投资的话

161
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他肯定做的也很好

162
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包括他来美国之后啊

163
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他想做生意肯定也不差

164
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你看看吧

165
00:04:44,939 --> 00:04:46,899
他能有非常理性的思维

166
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找到自己最终想要的结果

167
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这种人其实都是狠人

168
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而且他在这种做决策的时候非常果断

169
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他从移民拿到绿卡用了一年半

170
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牛逼吧

171
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这个也是我见过速度最快的啊

172
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说明他在做这个事的时候

173
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他绝对是深思远虑的啊

174
00:04:59,970 --> 00:05:01,050
问了他前老板啊

175
00:05:01,050 --> 00:05:02,449
身边的最靠谱的人

176
00:05:02,449 --> 00:05:03,928
他发现最靠谱的人的选择

177
00:05:03,928 --> 00:05:05,548
他毫不犹豫选择了

178
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大家想一下这是一个什么样的哈哈

179
00:05:08,240 --> 00:05:09,300
什么样的思考能力啊

180
00:05:09,300 --> 00:05:10,379
什么样的决策能力啊

181
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对吧

182
00:05:10,860 --> 00:05:12,980
而且你看他这么年轻哈

183
00:05:12,980 --> 00:05:13,600
20多岁

184
00:05:13,600 --> 00:05:15,139
如果他不走冤枉路啊

185
00:05:15,139 --> 00:05:16,180
不走错路的话

186
00:05:16,180 --> 00:05:18,019
我觉得他将来的美国的成就啊

187
00:05:18,019 --> 00:05:19,699
绝对是非常非常牛逼的啊

188
00:05:19,699 --> 00:05:20,019
当然了

189
00:05:20,019 --> 00:05:21,980
你说他有没有受优惠的可能性呢

190
00:05:21,980 --> 00:05:24,870
有还有可能他这个85年老婆或者关键时

191
00:05:24,870 --> 00:05:27,009
关键时刻呢帮他一下是吧

192
00:05:27,009 --> 00:05:28,149
你看到日语的话

193
00:05:28,149 --> 00:05:28,949
20多岁

194
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这正是这个哈喜欢炫耀的时候

195
00:05:31,250 --> 00:05:33,370
所以这个呢也是看了身边很多人之后

196
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发现大部分人呢在原地徘徊

197
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在原地哈

198
00:05:36,889 --> 00:05:38,569
走一步退两步这种状态

199
00:05:38,569 --> 00:05:41,209
但是呢给大家讲的是普通人呢

200
00:05:41,209 --> 00:05:43,129
在这个时代你能做到的是什么呢

201
00:05:43,129 --> 00:05:44,230
就是风险意识

202
00:05:44,230 --> 00:05:45,350
就风险隔离

203
00:05:45,350 --> 00:05:47,089
那隔离到什么程度才好呢

204
00:05:47,089 --> 00:05:49,678
哈就是我给大家讲的是嗨

205
00:05:49,678 --> 00:05:50,399
最好不要投资

206
00:05:50,399 --> 00:05:51,139
不要创业

207
00:05:51,139 --> 00:05:52,639
对90%来讲哈

208
00:05:52,639 --> 00:05:53,598
就我讲投资

209
00:05:53,598 --> 00:05:55,499
那我只给人家真的有资产

210
00:05:55,499 --> 00:05:56,889
还有现金流啊

211
00:05:56,889 --> 00:06:00,779
想着去长期的这个增值复利的躺平收屈的哈

212
00:06:00,779 --> 00:06:03,019
就是我们会员群的这些老登们啊

213
00:06:03,019 --> 00:06:06,139
我是给他们配置的全是这些高股息哈

214
00:06:06,139 --> 00:06:07,870
垄断提价啊

215
00:06:07,870 --> 00:06:10,329
然后呢DP1低估值对吧

216
00:06:10,329 --> 00:06:11,629
让他们躺平啊

217
00:06:11,629 --> 00:06:13,189
拿出钱来再配置一些啊

218
00:06:13,189 --> 00:06:14,689
近期股高收益的股

219
00:06:14,689 --> 00:06:17,589
其实这就是我在做生意里面养成的习惯

220
00:06:17,589 --> 00:06:18,870
就是风险啊

221
00:06:18,870 --> 00:06:19,990
永远是放第一位啊

222
00:06:19,990 --> 00:06:20,949
赚多少钱呢

223
00:06:20,949 --> 00:06:22,230
永远是第二位啊

224
00:06:22,230 --> 00:06:25,019
流动性变现资产永远是第一位的

225
00:06:25,019 --> 00:06:27,259
就是我的资产如果不能一键变现

226
00:06:27,259 --> 00:06:28,899
那不是我的资产啊

227
00:06:28,899 --> 00:06:29,759
那是别人的资产

228
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嘿嘿嘿

229
00:06:30,660 --> 00:06:31,740
很多人理解不了哈

230
00:06:31,740 --> 00:06:33,540
就我这钱如果不用啊

231
00:06:33,540 --> 00:06:34,399
让我自己支配

232
00:06:34,399 --> 00:06:35,639
那只是一个消费券

233
00:06:35,639 --> 00:06:37,699
我永远把这个思路呢放在我心里面

234
00:06:37,699 --> 00:06:39,310
所以我从来不抱有任何幻想

235
00:06:39,310 --> 00:06:40,790
恰恰因为我这种风险意识呢

236
00:06:40,790 --> 00:06:45,060
所以我是为数不多能够哈乾坤大挪移哈

237
00:06:46,019 --> 00:06:48,839
也是维护农村底层的隔离的一些底层人的

238
00:06:48,839 --> 00:06:50,000
而且为数不多的

239
00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:52,779
能够真正意义上看明白一些人性哈

240
00:06:52,779 --> 00:06:55,620
然后呢毫发无伤的这种能出局的人

241
00:06:55,620 --> 00:06:56,680
能出来的人啊

242
00:06:56,680 --> 00:06:58,879
当然这个事呢我每次讲的时候

243
00:06:58,879 --> 00:07:00,240
总有人说啊

244
00:07:00,240 --> 00:07:02,279
你再怎么怎么样炫耀之类的

245
00:07:02,279 --> 00:07:03,220
他这个人呢

246
00:07:03,220 --> 00:07:06,279
实际上我跟我根根本就不不是一类人嘛

247
00:07:06,279 --> 00:07:08,439
就他们永远不可能出现在我的朋友圈

248
00:07:08,439 --> 00:07:11,519
或者说在我未来的这种人生路上哈

249
00:07:11,519 --> 00:07:13,040
给他能够分享啊

250
00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:13,620
不可能的

251
00:07:13,620 --> 00:07:16,750
因为我自己做事我很清楚啊

252
00:07:16,750 --> 00:07:20,470
我身边原来的时候就创业初期到2年期间

253
00:07:20,470 --> 00:07:21,990
80%的人都是这种人哈

254
00:07:21,990 --> 00:07:23,779
他完全是没有价值观的啊

255
00:07:23,779 --> 00:07:27,120
当然现在呢我在美国呢就是思考对吧

256
00:07:27,120 --> 00:07:28,100
然后呢琢磨

257
00:07:28,100 --> 00:07:30,819
然后呢挖掘这种啊真正的好好东西

258
00:07:30,819 --> 00:07:31,529
好机会

259
00:07:31,529 --> 00:07:33,689
然后呢分享自己的内心的感悟

260
00:07:33,689 --> 00:07:36,329
然后最关键的啊能够看明白些事之后呢

261
00:07:36,329 --> 00:07:37,990
啊能够把这些数量能够串起来

262
00:07:37,990 --> 00:07:39,389
然后再反复的去琢磨

263
00:07:39,389 --> 00:07:40,810
然形成大的机会啊

264
00:07:40,810 --> 00:07:41,089
当然了

265
00:07:41,089 --> 00:07:42,910
这个事呢难点也是这样的哈

266
00:07:42,910 --> 00:07:44,699
就是做一天容易啊

267
00:07:44,699 --> 00:07:47,220
作为3年四年很难啊

268
00:07:47,220 --> 00:07:48,259
有一个粉丝兄弟给我讲嘛

269
00:07:48,259 --> 00:07:49,139
他说腾哥

270
00:07:49,139 --> 00:07:50,560
你是唯一的一个

271
00:07:50,560 --> 00:07:54,000
在我看来能够长期的保持一个状态的是吧

272
00:07:54,000 --> 00:07:55,279
那你这种人肯定很可惜

273
00:07:55,279 --> 00:07:58,259
那个哥们呢他还是很典型的投机大师啊

274
00:07:58,259 --> 00:07:59,420
学历也不高啊

275
00:07:59,420 --> 00:08:00,319
很有投机能力

276
00:08:00,319 --> 00:08:02,959
其实我发现这个呢就是那种混子啊

277
00:08:02,959 --> 00:08:04,939
那混子哈顺来养小流氓

278
00:08:04,939 --> 00:08:07,160
他是比我们这种拼命三郎啊

279
00:08:07,160 --> 00:08:09,860
这种哼死磕的人呢更有情商

280
00:08:09,860 --> 00:08:10,819
更能看准人性

281
00:08:10,819 --> 00:08:13,529
因为我不止一次的看到这帮这帮哥们儿

282
00:08:13,529 --> 00:08:13,930
给我留言

283
00:08:13,930 --> 00:08:16,149
说陈哥你这个哈哈哈

284
00:08:16,149 --> 00:08:18,670
一看就是一个造不了假的人

285
00:08:18,670 --> 00:08:20,538
因为你始终没有变过哈

286
00:08:20,538 --> 00:08:22,778
你说这个一个没有文化的人

287
00:08:22,778 --> 00:08:24,399
他能看清楚哈

288
00:08:24,399 --> 00:08:25,338
这个人性

289
00:08:25,338 --> 00:08:27,928
你说我们这些人如果看不懂的话

290
00:08:27,928 --> 00:08:29,569
多么可悲吧是吧

291
00:08:29,569 --> 00:08:31,869
这个越底层的人呢其实越懂人性

292
00:08:31,869 --> 00:08:35,009
因为他呢他们的身边都是恶是吧

293
00:08:35,009 --> 00:08:36,250
没有什么好东西

294
00:08:36,250 --> 00:08:38,850
又高层人呢还老大呢反而体验不到人性的恶

295
00:08:38,850 --> 00:08:40,570
因为他可以不交流啊

296
00:08:40,570 --> 00:08:43,809
他可以完全嘿嘿完全隔离哈

297
00:08:43,809 --> 00:08:45,039
他只是这一件事

298
00:08:45,039 --> 00:08:47,799
只和这个身价数百亿的富豪打交道就行了

299
00:08:47,799 --> 00:08:49,980
但是我们呢现在做这个事呢

300
00:08:49,980 --> 00:08:53,960
必然每必然每天还要面临啊这种这种状态

301
00:08:53,960 --> 00:08:57,419
所以我们呢还保持了这种沟通的频率嘛

302
00:08:57,419 --> 00:09:00,460
那今天呢你来了一个荒郊野岭

303
00:09:00,460 --> 00:09:02,820
这个地方呢好像失过火

304
00:09:02,820 --> 00:09:03,860
来看一下啊

305
00:09:03,860 --> 00:09:05,179
地面上很多种烧焦的痕迹

306
00:09:05,179 --> 00:09:06,759
你看对啊

307
00:09:06,759 --> 00:09:08,778
你看这地方还有烧焦的痕迹哇

308
00:09:08,778 --> 00:09:11,090
这个树等烧焦完之后

309
00:09:11,090 --> 00:09:13,389
你看整个整个山哇

310
00:09:13,389 --> 00:09:14,710
整个山真的被烧焦了

311
00:09:14,710 --> 00:09:16,190
你看那个那个树

312
00:09:16,190 --> 00:09:18,750
但现在看起来好像都长出来了

313
00:09:18,750 --> 00:09:19,710
来看啊

314
00:09:20,870 --> 00:09:22,029
哇还真烧焦了

315
00:09:22,029 --> 00:09:23,629
你看烧的很严重

316
00:09:23,629 --> 00:09:26,850
你看看哇

317
00:09:26,850 --> 00:09:28,659
这是一个荒山野岭啊

318
00:09:28,659 --> 00:09:29,899
啊太太棒了太棒了

319
00:09:29,899 --> 00:09:30,620
兄弟们

320
00:09:30,620 --> 00:09:33,559
所以2026年一定要隔离好风险

321
00:09:33,559 --> 00:09:34,940
选择好人啊

322
00:09:34,940 --> 00:09:36,659
不要被人带沟里面去啊

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