选对身边人少走弯路

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其实绝大多数人是没有风险意识的

2
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总是灾难来临了才发现危险

3
00:00:06,200 --> 00:00:07,900
但是呢已经为时已晚

4
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实际上你混什么圈子

5
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跟什么人在一块儿

6
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就会耳濡目染什么的信息

7
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形成什么样的看法

8
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你关键是对激活和风险的理解呢

9
00:00:17,588 --> 00:00:19,208
也就跟市面的有关系

10
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所以说你找到和你同行的人

11
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甚至比住在什么样的环境

12
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拥有多少财富还要重要

13
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这就是我给大家讲啊

14
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就是我自己成长环境很差嘛

15
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你想想我们从小啊就吃不上饭

16
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上不起学啊

17
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身边的人呢其实也没有太多文化或者事业

18
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其实在鲁西南那个地方呢

19
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人是非常闭塞的

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很多人可能一辈子连自己的村子都没有出去过

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像我们爷爷奶奶一辈

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他可能要饭

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他都不会出去这个镇

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但是呢他们呢就希望教育孩子

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给孩子讲他们的人生观

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世界观

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价值观

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所以大部分鲁西南的人呢一辈子的这个世界观

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人生观

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价值观都是嘿嘿老一辈给他的

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他最终呢它形成固化

32
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然后再给下一代了

33
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所以你看我后来影响了很多人的原因啊

34
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包括昨天看会员很多兄弟来到我家

35
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他们很多就把家呢安到我家旁边啊

36
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就是上学上旁边啊

37
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然后按照我的投资思维

38
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实际上有几个特别聪明的兄弟呢

39
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嘿嘿就是直接抄作业

40
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去年翻了几倍

41
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昨天呢还有很多哈哈美国留言的啊

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说这个说说说说什么实盘乱七八糟的哈

43
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实际上我现在呢不愿意太多反击啊

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就是大家不是一个层次的人

45
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那其实没有必要产生太多交流啊

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特别是大家的兴趣爱好哈

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人生观

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世界观

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价值观不一样

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完全没必要聊

51
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但是呢我还是喜欢分享的

52
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有一些价值观相同的哈

53
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但是呢遇到困惑之后呢

54
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我给大家讲讲

55
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关于这个资产增值保值这个逻辑啊

56
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前两年呢实际上美股确确实实行情很好啊

57
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主要是科技类的

58
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但是呢美股在过去的45年呢

59
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整个市场呢就增长了十几万亿

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这十几万亿呢其实都让AI

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还有AI相关的公司拿走了

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就是微软

63
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英伟达啊

64
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谷歌啊

65
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苹果微软啊

66
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AMD是吧

67
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台积电啊

68
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还有今年的存储

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基本上就要刚拿到了十几万亿

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其他的消费类的对吧

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公共事业类的

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能源类的都跌的很惨

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还有医药类的

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但是呢科技类的已经涨到一个很高的点了

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所以今年持有科技的兄弟们体验肯定会不好

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原因很简单呀

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就股东回报

78
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实际上很少有人关注巴菲特的观点啊

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巴菲特其实是个真正的股神

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他既是一个很牛逼的企业家

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他也是很牛逼的投资人

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他也是唯一的哈投世界的常青藤常青藤啊

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这也是为什么我特别推崇老段啊

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因为老段也特别推崇巴菲特的原因啊

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就是他真的对这个投资啊

86
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嘿嘿深入到骨髓里

87
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其实怎么讲呢

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就是你投资一家公司

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你考虑的是多少年回本是吧

90
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比如我们在国内创业啊

91
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我们的R5E好的时候做到六七百%啊

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投100万啊

93
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一年给你赚六七百万

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这都是现金哦

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所以那就是你的这个创业的巅峰期啊

96
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那现在的话肯定不可能了

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你现在创业能做到20%

98
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很牛逼了

99
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但是呢你在投资的时候

100
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你今年还拿了一个五倍股

101
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比如这两年的闪迪啊

102
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连着两三年翻了差不多20倍

103
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它可能翻

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直接再继续翻

105
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二是不可能的

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他为什么呢

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因为他的产能有限

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他不可能无知的无无限制的扩张

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所以为什么存储过去它是一个周期性很强的

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是因为每一个企业他不敢扩太大的产能

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因为一旦扩了

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需求跟不上的时候

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面临的就是破产

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所以呢他们都是保持有效的产能

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但是呢自从AI数据中心啊火爆之后呢

116
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他把传统的这种啊手机啊

117
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电脑啊

118
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这种存储的需求直接打破了

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所以你看现在存储呢就停掉了很多啊

120
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芯片啊

121
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就是手机内存啊啊新能源汽车呀

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包括很多电脑上的存储

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但那一块停掉之后呢

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那一块物价开始暴涨

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因为稀缺嘛

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但是数据中心呢它也不是无限制的满足

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它也会有临界点

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为什么呢

129
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因为其他的企业看到机会以后也会进来

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他并不是说哈遥不可及的啊

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包括英伟达啊

132
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甚至包括微软啊

133
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包括谷歌

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他们如果发现这个存储啊成本很高

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甚至来讲严重稀缺的时候

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像谷歌这种

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他肯定会像做TPU一样哈

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去研发这个存储类的东西

139
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因为他没有说它比TPU的难度啊

140
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只会说少

141
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还不会说更多

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那这个呢也是给大家讲

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就是你永远不要把一个暴涨的行业

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可能持续性行业

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这也是今年为什么拿着科技的兄弟

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很难受的原因啊

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是因为他对消费类的

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他没有对消费类的这种理解有那么深

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因为消费是唯一的能够穿越周期的

150
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然后第二呢就是他家里有矿的

151
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他也可以穿越周期

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因为矿如果你是取之不尽用之不绝

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像黄金矿业公司啊

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像石油公司哈

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巴菲特众向的这些

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包括基亚新能源

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它也是一样的

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因为这些公司呢他也是家里有矿的

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然后呢年年能够哈变现

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增值的时候暴赚啊

161
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贬值的时候呢也能维持基本的费用

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要我说啊

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你生产黄金啊

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你的生产成本呢是1500阳师

165
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但是呢你卖的话是5500啊

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现在的话变成了将近5000一样时

167
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所以这个利润是超级高的

168
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他不比那种科技类的低啊

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你看英伟达也就是50%左右的纯利啊

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其实现在这些矿业公司的毛利

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也在60%以上了

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所以如果说你能了解这个逻辑呢

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你发现家里有矿也是穿越周期的

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然后还有什么呢

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哈就是那个公共事业类的公共事业

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其实今年表现也会不错的啊

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因为他有稳定的啊分红啊

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甚至有些七八个点

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他这个分红呢其实远远大于美国的国家利率啊

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所以你看到美国国家利率

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现在只有三点几个点哈

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如果说您找到那种十个点以上哈

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连续四五十年分红的

184
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那实际上他肯定比哈放存银行强的多嘛

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所以你看你如果懂得这个政治思维呢

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你就不需要说啊

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你把钱呢啊一定要放到高科技里面

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还博格斯space x宝马斯克

189
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特斯拉200多倍PE啊

190
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所以为什么我在特斯拉里面投资只有利润的

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原因

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是

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因为当我看到一个公司

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哈哈已经是几百倍pa的时候

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我会怎么想

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我说哇这个是不是有点太贵了

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如果这么贵的情况下

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我为什么还要坚持拿住呢

199
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我能不能是吧

200
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把这个投资策略改一改哈

201
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改到一些便宜的公司上去

202
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所以如果说你能理解这句话呢

203
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你最起码你就不需要说啊

204
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忍受它的巨大波动了是吧

205
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还有呢就是期权策略

206
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如果一定要一定要持有这家公司哈

207
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你就觉得波动影响心情哈

208
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你可以卖一部分步的

209
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所以这些都是在抵御风险的策略

210
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但是呢如果你在投入上

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你的认知还不够深的话

212
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你只会单一策略哈

213
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买入某家公司是拿你的体验肯定不好哈哈

214
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因为任何高估的他都会回调

215
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打任何暴跌的啊

216
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都不一定大涨

217
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所以这就是投资的一个专一性啊

218
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当然了

219
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我给很多人分享的公司的时候

220
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更多的是从每个行业里面啊

221
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寻找亚洲洼地

222
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在我们去年发现了很多的翻倍股

223
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原因是什么呢

224
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因为我们看的公司多嘛

225
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这也是很多人理解不了的

226
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所以你一个人怎么可能研究很多行业呢

227
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实际上大家可以看巴菲特的持仓啊

228
00:06:56,750 --> 00:06:58,889
巴菲特一共买过200多家公司

229
00:06:58,889 --> 00:07:00,750
但是他看过不下3000份的财报

230
00:07:00,750 --> 00:07:02,750
他横跨世界的很多地方

231
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比如说日本

232
00:07:03,470 --> 00:07:04,519
韩国啊

233
00:07:04,519 --> 00:07:05,920
甚至包括古巴的股票都买过啊

234
00:07:05,920 --> 00:07:06,959
中国也不用讲吧

235
00:07:06,959 --> 00:07:10,459
所以实际上呢巴菲特他也是一个逻辑

236
00:07:10,459 --> 00:07:12,980
就是大量的寻求价值洼地啊

237
00:07:12,980 --> 00:07:13,959
因为逻辑很简单

238
00:07:13,959 --> 00:07:16,209
你只有找到便宜的好公司

239
00:07:16,209 --> 00:07:17,649
你才能保证高收益哈

240
00:07:17,649 --> 00:07:19,490
你只有像我们做生意一样哈

241
00:07:19,490 --> 00:07:20,389
年年开花

242
00:07:20,389 --> 00:07:21,589
月月开发爆款

243
00:07:21,589 --> 00:07:23,839
你才保证公司的利润词语上升

244
00:07:23,839 --> 00:07:24,459
举个例子啊

245
00:07:24,459 --> 00:07:26,300
比如说我们做的最好的单品哈

246
00:07:26,300 --> 00:07:27,740
就是FFU啊

247
00:07:27,740 --> 00:07:29,319
那个时候一个单品一年的

248
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一个月净利润三四千万

249
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说啥了

250
00:07:31,279 --> 00:07:33,639
感受1415年报雾霾是吧

251
00:07:33,639 --> 00:07:35,279
FFFV呢是唯一的一个商用

252
00:07:35,279 --> 00:07:36,819
然后超高效率的

253
00:07:36,819 --> 00:07:37,600
然后呢

254
00:07:37,600 --> 00:07:39,750
今年呢A股有家公司

255
00:07:39,750 --> 00:07:41,870
就像我们当时做FH一样啊

256
00:07:41,870 --> 00:07:42,709
做节定式的

257
00:07:42,709 --> 00:07:44,550
就专门给存储工厂做结晶式的

258
00:07:44,550 --> 00:07:45,720
今年也报了股价

259
00:07:45,720 --> 00:07:46,480
我估计两年也翻了

260
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差不多有个六七倍吧

261
00:07:47,540 --> 00:07:49,019
当这家公司我也不提了啊

262
00:07:49,019 --> 00:07:52,360
这就是我们在做FFU过滤单元理念

263
00:07:52,680 --> 00:07:54,000
引申出来的一个新行业

264
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就是结晶市沉浸式

265
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这个产品呢

266
00:07:56,139 --> 00:07:58,540
实际上就是在201415年的时候

267
00:07:58,540 --> 00:08:00,180
我做美的代理啊

268
00:08:00,180 --> 00:08:02,350
也做美帝的这些生活电器啊

269
00:08:02,350 --> 00:08:05,350
当时美帝小米的净化器呢是卖700多块钱啊

270
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150CD价值

271
00:08:07,759 --> 00:08:09,300
但是就那样供不应求

272
00:08:09,300 --> 00:08:12,689
我就是因为我隔壁的邻居才买了七台小米

273
00:08:12,689 --> 00:08:14,050
我问他为什么买那么多的时候

274
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他跟我讲

275
00:08:14,410 --> 00:08:16,310
他说哎呀不买不行哈

276
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不买的话

277
00:08:16,769 --> 00:08:18,050
员工不愿意上班啊

278
00:08:18,050 --> 00:08:20,990
员工的话觉得啊办公室雾霾太严重

279
00:08:20,990 --> 00:08:21,769
坚决要买

280
00:08:21,769 --> 00:08:24,449
所以你看我从他这个上面找到了一些启发

281
00:08:24,449 --> 00:08:27,709
我说如果我能做一台赶七台

282
00:08:27,709 --> 00:08:29,470
然后我价格呢只向于3~4台

283
00:08:29,470 --> 00:08:31,069
小米的这种净化器的话

284
00:08:31,069 --> 00:08:31,970
是不是我就发财了

285
00:08:31,970 --> 00:08:33,210
实际上我就做了一款

286
00:08:33,210 --> 00:08:35,769
比这个小米CADR这大十倍的

287
00:08:35,769 --> 00:08:37,509
就是过滤单元

288
00:08:37,509 --> 00:08:38,948
就是用在洁净室啊

289
00:08:38,948 --> 00:08:40,668
今天的这个啊做伞

290
00:08:40,668 --> 00:08:41,308
做内存的

291
00:08:41,308 --> 00:08:42,188
做手机的啊

292
00:08:42,188 --> 00:08:43,688
富士康都有这个产品

293
00:08:43,688 --> 00:08:47,470
所以呢对今年就是有一个产品

294
00:08:47,470 --> 00:08:50,250
有个有个公式就做到洁净室的过滤单元的

295
00:08:50,250 --> 00:08:51,339
今年爆了

296
00:08:51,339 --> 00:08:53,759
其实这就是生意机会懂吗

297
00:08:53,759 --> 00:08:55,269
你从做生意里面

298
00:08:55,269 --> 00:08:56,649
你能够发现生意机会

299
00:08:56,649 --> 00:08:58,349
但是如果说你没有做过生意

300
00:08:58,349 --> 00:09:00,288
你是不可能理解生意逻辑的

301
00:09:00,288 --> 00:09:02,028
这就是为什么我能够啊

302
00:09:02,028 --> 00:09:03,889
不断的在股票里面寻找翻倍股

303
00:09:03,889 --> 00:09:07,009
但是很多人他是完全是没有这个能力的原因啊

304
00:09:07,009 --> 00:09:07,570
当然了

305
00:09:07,570 --> 00:09:09,289
我们继续讲这个逻辑是啥呢

306
00:09:09,289 --> 00:09:13,308
就是你如果说向开发产品做生意一样

307
00:09:13,308 --> 00:09:14,469
充满了投资的热情

308
00:09:14,469 --> 00:09:15,729
投资的乐趣啊

309
00:09:15,729 --> 00:09:18,259
然后呢你能够每年哈保持这种热情

310
00:09:18,259 --> 00:09:19,620
你开发十个产品啊

311
00:09:19,620 --> 00:09:21,039
最起码能报个3~5个

312
00:09:21,039 --> 00:09:23,360
就是有十个里面有3~5个翻倍股

313
00:09:23,360 --> 00:09:25,519
然后其他呢可能不是那么翻倍

314
00:09:25,519 --> 00:09:26,580
可能涨到三五十%

315
00:09:26,580 --> 00:09:28,080
加上今年开发的这些啊

316
00:09:28,080 --> 00:09:28,840
运营商类的哈

317
00:09:28,840 --> 00:09:31,000
消费类的三五十也很好了

318
00:09:31,000 --> 00:09:32,700
因为为什么巴菲特才20%

319
00:09:32,700 --> 00:09:34,419
所以这就是人和人最大的区别

320
00:09:34,419 --> 00:09:36,200
在于说如果你做过生意

321
00:09:36,200 --> 00:09:37,700
你又懂产品哈

322
00:09:37,700 --> 00:09:38,929
你又懂生意的逻辑

323
00:09:38,929 --> 00:09:40,610
你是完全可以像巴菲特一样

324
00:09:40,610 --> 00:09:42,429
不断的寻找这种价格洼地

325
00:09:42,429 --> 00:09:43,769
不断的寻找翻倍股

326
00:09:43,769 --> 00:09:45,370
不断的从每个行业里面

327
00:09:45,370 --> 00:09:47,149
把这个关联要素啊串起来

328
00:09:47,149 --> 00:09:49,070
就像我刚才说的这个结晶式哈

329
00:09:49,070 --> 00:09:50,769
就存储里面洁净室一样的

330
00:09:50,769 --> 00:09:53,730
这种东西是没有办法从财报里面去发现机会的

331
00:09:53,730 --> 00:09:55,889
你只能够你只能做一件事

332
00:09:55,889 --> 00:09:57,570
就是然后去关联啊

333
00:09:57,570 --> 00:09:58,029
去思考

334
00:09:58,029 --> 00:09:59,570
去琢磨长时间的啊

335
00:09:59,570 --> 00:10:01,590
像我今天一样诶

336
00:10:01,590 --> 00:10:03,019
来到圣地亚哥啊

337
00:10:03,019 --> 00:10:04,620
第一件事呢把老婆孩子送下

338
00:10:04,620 --> 00:10:07,559
然后一个人在啊这个峡谷里面还一边思考

339
00:10:07,559 --> 00:10:08,970
一边走上三五个小时

340
00:10:08,970 --> 00:10:11,839
应该把每个投资的要素再去重新思考一遍

341
00:10:11,839 --> 00:10:12,759
然后再去分享

342
00:10:12,759 --> 00:10:14,558
再去收收理这种过程呢

343
00:10:14,558 --> 00:10:16,438
所以你把你的这个标的的这种啊

344
00:10:16,438 --> 00:10:18,479
准确性会思考的比别人深的多

345
00:10:18,479 --> 00:10:20,409
但是呢如果你没有这个能力

346
00:10:20,409 --> 00:10:21,730
你要做的是手残

347
00:10:21,730 --> 00:10:22,549
啥也别干

348
00:10:22,549 --> 00:10:23,970
这个是我给大家提的建议啊

349
00:10:23,970 --> 00:10:27,070
就是这两年做所有的生意呢

350
00:10:27,070 --> 00:10:31,580
亏的概率比赢的概率要大3~5倍甚至十几倍

351
00:10:31,580 --> 00:10:32,740
就大概率会亏

352
00:10:32,740 --> 00:10:34,269
小概率会赚对吧

353
00:10:34,269 --> 00:10:36,230
这各种原因呢咱们不去分享了哈

354
00:10:36,230 --> 00:10:37,789
就是大家自己感受一下

355
00:10:37,789 --> 00:10:39,129
身边的这些状态就可以了

356
00:10:39,129 --> 00:10:40,710
对这就是为什么我从19年开始

357
00:10:40,710 --> 00:10:41,568
我一个人不招

358
00:10:41,568 --> 00:10:42,489
到现在为止啊

359
00:10:42,489 --> 00:10:44,328
我只是保留我这些10年以上的员工啊

360
00:10:44,328 --> 00:10:45,210
我也不招人了

361
00:10:45,210 --> 00:10:46,509
实际有个重要原因是什么呢

362
00:10:46,509 --> 00:10:48,929
就是他们不可能给公司创来带来利润

363
00:10:48,929 --> 00:10:50,250
它只能守住就不错了

364
00:10:50,250 --> 00:10:50,929
事实来讲

365
00:10:50,929 --> 00:10:52,350
守不住也很也很正常的

366
00:10:52,350 --> 00:10:54,230
所以我也不给他们任何的压力的原因

367
00:10:54,230 --> 00:10:57,690
就是这个时代呢只有极少数的人哈

368
00:10:57,690 --> 00:10:58,649
能够救自己的命

369
00:10:58,649 --> 00:11:00,850
大部分人呢只能接受随波逐流

370
00:11:00,850 --> 00:11:02,889
所以大家呢还要理解这一点哈

371
00:11:02,889 --> 00:11:05,179
就是接受这个现实是不容易的

372
00:11:05,179 --> 00:11:06,580
悲观一点没有坏处

373
00:11:06,580 --> 00:11:08,240
理性一点只有好处啊

374
00:11:08,240 --> 00:11:10,370
又又理性又长远的对吧

375
00:11:10,370 --> 00:11:12,850
这是为数不多的能够出来的人说

376
00:11:12,850 --> 00:11:13,769
能听懂的兄弟们

377
00:11:13,769 --> 00:11:15,480
你们慢慢就会理解了哈

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