BV1u97g6ZE3G · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,160 --> 00:00:03,919 看看amd的日收益增长 2 00:00:03,919 --> 00:00:04,780 天啊 3 00:00:04,780 --> 00:00:07,719 我意思是这只股票一直在不断上涨 4 00:00:07,719 --> 00:00:09,480 又涨了十八万美元 5 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:11,240 今天这只股票表现不错 6 00:00:11,240 --> 00:00:13,039 目前公开持仓上涨超一点 7 00:00:13,039 --> 00:00:15,130 一百万美元 8 00:00:15,130 --> 00:00:17,089 仅公开账户仓位就如此 9 00:00:17,089 --> 00:00:19,710 今天我们将在视频开头讨论amd 10 00:00:19,710 --> 00:00:20,690 那里发生了什么 11 00:00:20,690 --> 00:00:24,170 然后要讨论许多被重创的股票 12 00:00:24,170 --> 00:00:26,690 这些股票简直在崩盘 13 00:00:26,690 --> 00:00:27,750 看看palantir 14 00:00:27,750 --> 00:00:29,350 palantir现价跌至120美元 15 00:00:29,350 --> 00:00:32,408 netflix现价跌至73美元 16 00:00:32,408 --> 00:00:33,488 天啊 17 00:00:33,488 --> 00:00:35,469 看看service now跌至92美元 18 00:00:35,469 --> 00:00:38,390 salesforce持续暴跌至149美元 19 00:00:38,390 --> 00:00:41,429 salesforce现价跌破1.5美元 20 00:00:41,429 --> 00:00:42,689 此时此刻 21 00:00:42,689 --> 00:00:45,090 所有这些股票仍在持续暴跌 22 00:00:45,090 --> 00:00:50,640 真正有强劲动量的只有amd和micron 23 00:00:50,640 --> 00:00:52,439 这简直太明显了 24 00:00:52,439 --> 00:00:53,939 如果你持有amd和micron 25 00:00:53,939 --> 00:00:55,179 简直像狂欢 26 00:00:55,179 --> 00:00:56,280 但除此之外 27 00:00:56,280 --> 00:00:59,219 其他都是垃圾 28 00:00:59,219 --> 00:01:02,399 所以我想在视频中分析这些股票 29 00:01:02,399 --> 00:01:03,880 spacex、palantir 30 00:01:03,880 --> 00:01:04,689 netflix 31 00:01:04,689 --> 00:01:06,390 我们将详细讨论这些service 32 00:01:06,390 --> 00:01:06,709 现在 33 00:01:06,709 --> 00:01:08,750 salesforce我的看法 34 00:01:08,750 --> 00:01:10,489 这些股票还能撑多久 35 00:01:10,489 --> 00:01:11,959 它们会反转吗 36 00:01:11,959 --> 00:01:14,120 我想深入分析这些 37 00:01:14,120 --> 00:01:14,719 我可能会提到 38 00:01:14,719 --> 00:01:15,480 celsius在视频中 39 00:01:15,480 --> 00:01:16,200 我们将讨论很多 40 00:01:16,200 --> 00:01:18,400 今天视频将大量分析股票 41 00:01:18,400 --> 00:01:19,680 完成这些分析后 42 00:01:19,680 --> 00:01:21,009 我想回应 43 00:01:21,009 --> 00:01:23,569 他预测今年晚些时市场将转向 44 00:01:23,569 --> 00:01:25,289 这值得深入讨论 45 00:01:25,289 --> 00:01:27,448 看看那个领结图案 46 00:01:27,448 --> 00:01:30,670 天哪这不是丹杰克逊想回应这个 47 00:01:30,670 --> 00:01:34,379 今年的 rally 完全由财报驱动 48 00:01:34,379 --> 00:01:36,180 这是摩根大通人士的观点 49 00:01:36,180 --> 00:01:37,819 非常期待回应这一点 50 00:01:37,819 --> 00:01:38,260 一件事 51 00:01:38,260 --> 00:01:39,019 只需要一件事 52 00:01:39,019 --> 00:01:40,140 你们还有很多要经历的 53 00:01:40,140 --> 00:01:41,319 我们有很多股票要讨论 54 00:01:41,319 --> 00:01:43,340 我只需要你们点那个小点赞图标 55 00:01:43,340 --> 00:01:44,640 那个小点赞按钮 56 00:01:44,640 --> 00:01:45,980 如果你能为我做到这一点 57 00:01:45,980 --> 00:01:48,239 我将无比感激 58 00:01:48,239 --> 00:01:48,879 父亲节 59 00:01:48,879 --> 00:01:50,799 给所有父亲们送上迟到的父亲节祝福 60 00:01:50,799 --> 00:01:53,650 我妻子给我买了这条项链 61 00:01:53,650 --> 00:01:55,750 这是一条非常非常漂亮的项链 62 00:01:55,750 --> 00:01:59,500 我这么说是因为我确实很感谢她这么做 63 00:01:59,500 --> 00:02:00,920 孩子们也一样 64 00:02:00,920 --> 00:02:03,319 但我有个预感 65 00:02:03,319 --> 00:02:06,000 她可能是那个经济上支持的人 66 00:02:06,000 --> 00:02:06,280 所以 67 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:06,840 嗯是的 68 00:02:06,840 --> 00:02:08,039 希望所有在场的你们 69 00:02:08,039 --> 00:02:10,629 所有观看的爸爸们度过了美好的父亲节周末 70 00:02:10,629 --> 00:02:12,409 你们绝对配得上 71 00:02:12,409 --> 00:02:14,599 好的顺便说一下 72 00:02:14,599 --> 00:02:15,080 你们要知道 73 00:02:15,080 --> 00:02:17,310 私密群组本周将停止新增成员 74 00:02:17,310 --> 00:02:19,669 周五是最后申请加入我们的截止日 75 00:02:19,669 --> 00:02:21,030 如果你想要申请加入我们 76 00:02:21,030 --> 00:02:22,949 将你的投资知识提升到更高层次 77 00:02:22,949 --> 00:02:24,759 获得所有课程大纲的访问权限 78 00:02:24,759 --> 00:02:25,400 私密Discord频道 79 00:02:25,400 --> 00:02:26,520 专属每周视频 80 00:02:26,520 --> 00:02:27,919 所有优质内容再次提醒 81 00:02:27,919 --> 00:02:31,500 周五是最后接受新成员申请的日子 82 00:02:31,500 --> 00:02:33,188 好的已经amd 83 00:02:33,188 --> 00:02:34,068 现在开始吧 84 00:02:34,068 --> 00:02:34,508 我们来聊聊 85 00:02:34,508 --> 00:02:35,829 amd就在视频开头 86 00:02:35,829 --> 00:02:38,879 听着amd 87 00:02:38,879 --> 00:02:40,400 你知道的 88 00:02:41,439 --> 00:02:43,740 现在怎么阻止这只股票上涨 89 00:02:43,740 --> 00:02:44,840 你现在怎么阻止这只股票 90 00:02:44,840 --> 00:02:49,099 我意思是财报即将大幅上涨 91 00:02:49,099 --> 00:02:52,800 没错我们还没触及惊愕订单 92 00:02:52,800 --> 00:02:53,060 还没呢 93 00:02:53,060 --> 00:02:54,080 那还在后头 94 00:02:54,080 --> 00:02:55,319 所以这 95 00:02:55,319 --> 00:02:57,300 这只股票很难阻挡 96 00:02:58,479 --> 00:02:59,039 你知道的 97 00:02:59,039 --> 00:02:59,259 这 98 00:02:59,259 --> 00:03:03,300 市场本身并不强劲对吧 99 00:03:03,300 --> 00:03:06,340 我们会讨论很多经历艰难时刻的个股 100 00:03:06,340 --> 00:03:08,530 但并非像 101 00:03:08,530 --> 00:03:11,710 这就是这次AMD运行最令人印象深刻的地方 102 00:03:11,710 --> 00:03:13,250 伊恩·麦克伦也一样对吧 103 00:03:13,250 --> 00:03:15,750 也把麦克伦加入这个群体中 104 00:03:15,750 --> 00:03:18,680 这次运行最令人印象深刻的是 105 00:03:18,680 --> 00:03:23,780 这不是所有大市值股票都在飙升的时期 106 00:03:23,780 --> 00:03:26,500 我的意思是你可以看看这些大科技公司 107 00:03:26,500 --> 00:03:29,949 它们都大幅下跌了 108 00:03:29,949 --> 00:03:31,710 不管我们讨论的是Meta 109 00:03:31,710 --> 00:03:34,990 不管讨论的是亚马逊还是苹果 110 00:03:34,990 --> 00:03:35,800 对吧 111 00:03:35,800 --> 00:03:36,639 嗯，真是头疼 112 00:03:36,639 --> 00:03:38,740 甚至英伟达也下跌不少 113 00:03:38,740 --> 00:03:40,400 英伟达没有出现极端情况 114 00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:41,379 因为这是芯片股 115 00:03:41,379 --> 00:03:43,300 所以表现还算稳健 116 00:03:43,300 --> 00:03:44,598 没错，英伟达 117 00:03:44,598 --> 00:03:46,038 英伟达整体表现不错 118 00:03:46,038 --> 00:03:47,079 因为这是芯片股 119 00:03:47,079 --> 00:03:48,949 但你要看其他领域 120 00:03:48,949 --> 00:03:49,389 天啊 121 00:03:49,389 --> 00:03:53,349 这些股票都大幅下跌了 122 00:03:53,349 --> 00:03:54,930 从科技巨头阵营来看 123 00:03:54,930 --> 00:03:57,110 但AMD和麦克伦却持续上涨 124 00:03:57,110 --> 00:03:58,650 这确实让人不禁思考 125 00:03:58,650 --> 00:04:01,030 如果市场其他板块能出现动能 126 00:04:01,030 --> 00:04:02,838 整体行情得到提振 127 00:04:02,838 --> 00:04:05,139 这会推动AMD在市场中涨到多高 128 00:04:05,139 --> 00:04:07,598 这会推动麦克伦涨到多高 129 00:04:07,598 --> 00:04:09,719 另一种思路是 130 00:04:09,719 --> 00:04:12,219 他们会卖出AMD转投其他股票 131 00:04:12,219 --> 00:04:13,639 这也是潜在可能 132 00:04:13,639 --> 00:04:14,759 没错，AMD和麦克伦 133 00:04:14,759 --> 00:04:15,659 所有芯片股 134 00:04:15,659 --> 00:04:17,579 卖出英伟达等股票 135 00:04:17,579 --> 00:04:18,220 投入其他领域 136 00:04:18,220 --> 00:04:18,620 是的 137 00:04:18,620 --> 00:04:19,680 这也是种可能性 138 00:04:19,680 --> 00:04:23,500 但我觉得市场现在处于消化阶段 139 00:04:23,500 --> 00:04:24,970 我正在分析美联储动向 140 00:04:24,970 --> 00:04:27,050 长期利率走势如何 141 00:04:27,050 --> 00:04:28,089 当我提到长期时 142 00:04:28,089 --> 00:04:28,829 我不是指 143 00:04:28,829 --> 00:04:29,209 你知道的 144 00:04:29,209 --> 00:04:30,810 十年期国债利率水平 145 00:04:30,810 --> 00:04:32,779 我是说未来一两年 146 00:04:32,779 --> 00:04:34,779 大家都在研究这个问题 147 00:04:34,779 --> 00:04:39,649 没错，这对其他股票是绝佳机会 148 00:04:39,649 --> 00:04:40,488 我们之后会详细讨论 149 00:04:40,488 --> 00:04:42,809 我只是想完成关于AMD的思考 150 00:04:42,809 --> 00:04:43,949 但AMD 151 00:04:43,949 --> 00:04:47,439 这只是世界属于他们 152 00:04:47,439 --> 00:04:48,720 我不知道还能说什么 153 00:04:48,720 --> 00:04:52,500 接下来几年gpu和cpu的需求将会极其旺盛 154 00:04:52,500 --> 00:04:54,379 利润率将能支撑增长 155 00:04:54,379 --> 00:04:55,319 我们将会获得一些 156 00:04:55,319 --> 00:04:59,560 我相信接下来几个季度的指引和预期都会超出预期 157 00:04:59,560 --> 00:05:03,410 你不能阻挡这只股票 158 00:05:03,410 --> 00:05:06,290 所以你知道的 159 00:05:06,290 --> 00:05:07,569 我有意向卖出给你 160 00:05:07,569 --> 00:05:08,689 我的公共卫生股份 161 00:05:08,689 --> 00:05:10,129 不像是amd 162 00:05:10,129 --> 00:05:13,629 我现在甚至没有卖出私人持仓的打算 163 00:05:13,629 --> 00:05:16,389 你知道就像为什么 164 00:05:16,389 --> 00:05:17,839 我为什么要这么做 165 00:05:17,839 --> 00:05:20,019 现在完全没有必要 166 00:05:20,019 --> 00:05:22,540 接下来几个月我们可能涨到七百多 167 00:05:22,540 --> 00:05:22,920 好的 168 00:05:22,920 --> 00:05:25,699 我们可以考虑适当获利了结 169 00:05:25,699 --> 00:05:28,040 但五位数以上的 170 00:05:28,040 --> 00:05:29,759 完全没兴趣兄弟 171 00:05:29,759 --> 00:05:31,089 完全没兴趣 172 00:05:31,089 --> 00:05:35,110 财报增长速度将远超预期 173 00:05:35,110 --> 00:05:36,740 即使是像我这样的 174 00:05:36,740 --> 00:05:39,220 我对amd的财报有很高期待 175 00:05:39,220 --> 00:05:40,220 未来一两年内 176 00:05:40,220 --> 00:05:43,670 这比我的预期还要快得多 177 00:05:43,670 --> 00:05:45,470 甚至管理层的预期 178 00:05:45,470 --> 00:05:45,629 而且 179 00:05:45,629 --> 00:05:46,750 所以是的 180 00:05:46,750 --> 00:05:47,550 欢乐时光 181 00:05:47,550 --> 00:05:48,149 欢乐时光 182 00:05:48,149 --> 00:05:48,709 我不知道 183 00:05:48,709 --> 00:05:48,990 说吧 184 00:05:48,990 --> 00:05:49,310 你知道的 185 00:05:49,310 --> 00:05:51,589 当你持有像amd这样的股票 186 00:05:51,589 --> 00:05:52,569 对这类股票进行微调 187 00:05:52,569 --> 00:05:54,089 必须让它们自由发展 188 00:05:54,089 --> 00:05:56,480 它们正在经历大幅上涨，嗯 189 00:05:56,480 --> 00:05:58,160 最终上涨趋势会结束 190 00:05:58,160 --> 00:06:00,300 最后会出现抛售高潮 191 00:06:00,300 --> 00:06:03,290 然后我们将陷入震荡 192 00:06:04,329 --> 00:06:05,490 上下波动 193 00:06:05,490 --> 00:06:06,750 不会真正走远 194 00:06:06,750 --> 00:06:08,790 然后最终会下跌 195 00:06:08,790 --> 00:06:10,439 但还有一段时间 196 00:06:10,439 --> 00:06:10,680 兄弟 197 00:06:10,680 --> 00:06:11,560 还有一段时间 198 00:06:11,560 --> 00:06:13,939 所以我们现在还在享受 199 00:06:13,939 --> 00:06:16,470 看来没有太多机会 200 00:06:16,470 --> 00:06:17,149 劳德 201 00:06:17,149 --> 00:06:18,990 在这里，绿色代表我们 dao 的核心 202 00:06:18,990 --> 00:06:19,470 绿色森林 203 00:06:19,470 --> 00:06:21,250 显然我们刚才讨论了AMD 204 00:06:21,250 --> 00:06:23,370 但有很多《荒野大镖客》的内容 205 00:06:23,370 --> 00:06:25,699 外面有很多《荒野大镖客》 206 00:06:25,699 --> 00:06:27,600 我们到底该从哪里开始呢 207 00:06:27,600 --> 00:06:29,439 让我们从SpaceX开始吧 208 00:06:29,439 --> 00:06:30,600 让我们从SpaceX开始 209 00:06:30,600 --> 00:06:30,980 你知道的 210 00:06:30,980 --> 00:06:32,740 SpaceX仍在 211 00:06:32,740 --> 00:06:33,540 天啊 212 00:06:33,540 --> 00:06:36,928 SpaceX刚刚又大幅下跌，现在下跌了13%以上 213 00:06:36,928 --> 00:06:39,048 好的，关于SpaceX 214 00:06:39,048 --> 00:06:39,749 女士们先生们 215 00:06:39,749 --> 00:06:45,499 好的，听我说，SpaceX的问题在于 216 00:06:46,579 --> 00:06:50,329 锁定期即将来临对吧 217 00:06:50,329 --> 00:06:52,930 接下来几个月就会发生 218 00:06:52,930 --> 00:06:55,730 会有越来越多的内部人士 219 00:06:55,730 --> 00:06:58,110 将被允许出售SpaceX股票 220 00:06:58,110 --> 00:06:59,689 如果他们想在接下来的周期内操作 221 00:06:59,689 --> 00:07:01,180 可能三到六个月 222 00:07:01,180 --> 00:07:05,110 这将成为对你不利的因素 223 00:07:05,110 --> 00:07:07,910 SpaceX的炒作似乎降温了 224 00:07:07,910 --> 00:07:09,069 关于SpaceX 225 00:07:09,069 --> 00:07:12,839 这也是需要考虑的因素 226 00:07:12,839 --> 00:07:16,839 有很多人买入了SpaceX 227 00:07:16,839 --> 00:07:17,779 IPO 228 00:07:17,779 --> 00:07:18,459 你知道的 229 00:07:18,459 --> 00:07:20,439 这些并非股票市场和投资者 230 00:07:20,439 --> 00:07:20,939 你知道的 231 00:07:20,939 --> 00:07:23,339 这些人现在开始亏损 232 00:07:23,339 --> 00:07:28,350 其中一些人已几乎损失全部利润 233 00:07:28,350 --> 00:07:30,300 对吧 234 00:07:30,300 --> 00:07:34,240 这会形成大量持续抛售者 235 00:07:34,240 --> 00:07:34,540 卖出 236 00:07:34,540 --> 00:07:35,600 持续卖出 237 00:07:35,600 --> 00:07:36,730 对吧然后你说 238 00:07:36,730 --> 00:07:36,889 好的 239 00:07:36,889 --> 00:07:38,050 那买家呢 240 00:07:38,050 --> 00:07:40,009 买家何时会入场呢 241 00:07:40,009 --> 00:07:41,410 如果你是SpaceX的买家 242 00:07:41,410 --> 00:07:43,930 为何现在要入场 243 00:07:43,930 --> 00:07:47,420 公司短期内难以盈利 244 00:07:47,420 --> 00:07:49,660 比如SpaceX 245 00:07:49,660 --> 00:07:52,540 现实来看大概不会盈利 246 00:07:52,540 --> 00:07:54,540 除非他们最终盈利 247 00:07:54,540 --> 00:07:55,819 但若他们盈利 248 00:07:55,819 --> 00:07:57,339 我们看20到30年代 249 00:07:57,339 --> 00:08:00,100 大概率在20到30年代 250 00:08:00,560 --> 00:08:05,120 谁愿意投资一个可能不盈利的股票 251 00:08:05,120 --> 00:08:06,439 直到五年后 252 00:08:06,439 --> 00:08:07,819 十年后 253 00:08:08,220 --> 00:08:12,180 目前很少有经验丰富的股票市场投资者愿意这样做 254 00:08:12,180 --> 00:08:16,579 通常你希望在公司盈利前一年买入 255 00:08:16,579 --> 00:08:18,399 如果能以低价购入 256 00:08:18,399 --> 00:08:19,439 没错 257 00:08:19,439 --> 00:08:20,790 所以你知道的 258 00:08:20,790 --> 00:08:23,149 现在还有一些超级狂热的马斯克粉丝 259 00:08:23,149 --> 00:08:23,670 马斯克粉丝 260 00:08:23,670 --> 00:08:27,269 这类人愿意买入股票并长期持有 261 00:08:27,269 --> 00:08:29,329 他们不在乎公司是否亏损 262 00:08:29,329 --> 00:08:31,379 但大多数人不是这样 263 00:08:31,379 --> 00:08:32,659 大多数投资者都不是这样 264 00:08:32,659 --> 00:08:34,340 他们会从实际角度考虑 265 00:08:41,230 --> 00:08:42,750 这将是巨大的 266 00:08:50,450 --> 00:08:54,448 对了十年后十五年 267 00:08:54,448 --> 00:08:55,288 我们会看到的 268 00:08:55,288 --> 00:08:57,609 但五年内会体现在损益表上 269 00:08:57,609 --> 00:08:58,828 将是巨额亏损 270 00:08:58,828 --> 00:09:02,730 没错，这是SpaceX面临的难题 271 00:09:02,730 --> 00:09:06,129 这无疑给市场泼了冷水 272 00:09:06,129 --> 00:09:07,710 短期内肯定如此 273 00:09:07,710 --> 00:09:11,629 但最终这只股票对市场影响不大 274 00:09:11,629 --> 00:09:13,090 现在确实有一定影响 275 00:09:13,090 --> 00:09:15,059 因为其权重占比 276 00:09:15,059 --> 00:09:21,850 当人们不再频繁谈论SpaceX，只将其视为普通股票 277 00:09:21,850 --> 00:09:24,610 那时市场影响才会消失 278 00:09:24,610 --> 00:09:25,090 程度上 279 00:09:25,090 --> 00:09:27,799 所以要记住这点，同时 280 00:09:27,799 --> 00:09:30,019 我可能有几天出现大幅飙升 281 00:09:30,019 --> 00:09:31,500 或小幅大幅上涨 282 00:09:31,500 --> 00:09:32,480 随后又回落 283 00:09:32,480 --> 00:09:34,919 这就是常态 284 00:09:34,919 --> 00:09:35,399 嗯 285 00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:36,340 关于那个问题 286 00:09:36,340 --> 00:09:37,259 看看Palantir 287 00:09:37,259 --> 00:09:39,299 Palantir股价19美元 288 00:09:39,299 --> 00:09:40,639 一磅重的 289 00:09:40,639 --> 00:09:42,700 短期内处于困境 290 00:09:44,019 --> 00:09:50,349 主要因为风险资产存在弱点 291 00:09:50,349 --> 00:09:52,869 SpaceX股价下跌13% 292 00:09:52,869 --> 00:09:54,370 大幅下跌 293 00:09:54,370 --> 00:09:54,990 嗯 294 00:09:54,990 --> 00:09:57,090 现在比特币在哪里 295 00:09:57,090 --> 00:09:59,429 让我查一下比特币 296 00:09:59,429 --> 00:10:00,610 如果我能调出来 297 00:10:00,610 --> 00:10:01,169 比特币 298 00:10:03,110 --> 00:10:05,259 现在根本看不到任何势头 299 00:10:05,259 --> 00:10:07,039 比特币现在彻底死掉了 300 00:10:07,039 --> 00:10:07,820 以太坊 301 00:10:07,820 --> 00:10:09,940 一千七百个以太坊也死了 302 00:10:09,940 --> 00:10:13,440 我说这些资产根本死透了 303 00:10:13,440 --> 00:10:16,840 它们完全没有上涨动力或兴奋感 304 00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:22,529 通常像Palantir这样的高增长股票 305 00:10:22,529 --> 00:10:25,269 你需要某种势头和兴奋感 306 00:10:25,269 --> 00:10:27,649 现在什么都没有 307 00:10:27,649 --> 00:10:29,850 如果比特币和以太坊都死了 308 00:10:29,850 --> 00:10:34,309 有时候像Palantir这样的超级高增长股也会死掉 309 00:10:34,309 --> 00:10:36,870 没错这正不利于它们 310 00:10:36,870 --> 00:10:40,620 而这一点非常重要 311 00:10:40,620 --> 00:10:42,720 它们被归类为SaaS股票 312 00:10:42,720 --> 00:10:45,379 没错SaaS股票也看不到任何势头 313 00:10:45,379 --> 00:10:48,440 难怪像ServiceNow这样的股票持续被摧毁 314 00:10:48,440 --> 00:10:50,440 像Salesforce这样的股票仍在被摧毁 315 00:10:50,440 --> 00:10:52,500 甚至微软都不例外 316 00:10:52,500 --> 00:10:54,779 微软也被归入SaaS类别 317 00:10:54,779 --> 00:10:56,220 尽管它们远不止于此 318 00:10:56,220 --> 00:10:57,379 但它们被归为这一类 319 00:10:57,379 --> 00:10:59,059 而这家公司的股票只是 320 00:10:59,059 --> 00:11:00,769 不断下跌下跌下跌 321 00:11:00,769 --> 00:11:04,049 这些股票现在毫无势头 322 00:11:04,049 --> 00:11:04,409 这一点很重要 323 00:11:04,409 --> 00:11:06,610 在我们深入讨论更多个股之前 324 00:11:06,610 --> 00:11:07,289 关注个股 325 00:11:07,289 --> 00:11:09,208 关注优质公司 326 00:11:09,208 --> 00:11:10,928 抓住这些时机 327 00:11:10,928 --> 00:11:11,349 你知道的 328 00:11:11,349 --> 00:11:13,349 我不知道是否还会再来三六九 329 00:11:13,349 --> 00:11:18,110 十二个月这样的优质科技公司大幅折价期 330 00:11:18,110 --> 00:11:19,360 要抓住机会 331 00:11:19,360 --> 00:11:20,519 要抓住机会 332 00:11:20,519 --> 00:11:21,379 你知道的 333 00:11:21,379 --> 00:11:26,019 尽可能多地买入优质科技公司股票 334 00:11:26,019 --> 00:11:28,289 比如你非常看好ServiceNow 335 00:11:28,289 --> 00:11:31,309 还有Netflix等等 336 00:11:33,639 --> 00:11:36,860 如果你相信这些公司在未来五到十年 337 00:11:36,860 --> 00:11:37,879 尽可能多买入 338 00:11:37,879 --> 00:11:40,799 把它们塞进文件柜里 339 00:11:40,799 --> 00:11:42,220 就这么堆积起来 340 00:11:42,220 --> 00:11:43,600 你爱亚马逊 341 00:11:43,600 --> 00:11:44,840 你爱Meta 342 00:11:44,840 --> 00:11:45,700 你爱 343 00:11:45,700 --> 00:11:46,960 你知道的 344 00:11:46,960 --> 00:11:48,220 AMD 345 00:11:48,220 --> 00:11:49,000 就这么堆积起来 346 00:11:49,000 --> 00:11:50,279 把它们放进文件柜 347 00:11:50,279 --> 00:11:52,019 你知道AMD显然是一只正在上涨的股票 348 00:11:52,019 --> 00:11:53,419 但其他股票现在表现较弱 349 00:11:53,419 --> 00:11:56,460 没错但当你看到交易机会时 350 00:11:56,460 --> 00:11:58,500 你知道只是为了理解 351 00:11:58,500 --> 00:12:04,450 并尽量在三六十二个月周期内尽可能多地买入 352 00:12:04,450 --> 00:12:05,470 有些股票 353 00:12:05,470 --> 00:12:07,529 我会分几年逐步买入 354 00:12:07,529 --> 00:12:09,350 你知道芝士蛋糕工厂是个好例子 355 00:12:09,350 --> 00:12:11,679 这是我目前最强的股票之一 356 00:12:11,679 --> 00:12:12,700 芝士蛋糕工厂 357 00:12:12,700 --> 00:12:14,440 我在公开账户开始买入该股票 358 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:16,419 大约在2023年 359 00:12:16,419 --> 00:12:18,720 然后在2024年继续增持 360 00:12:18,720 --> 00:12:19,200 2025年 361 00:12:19,200 --> 00:12:20,578 我一直持有这只股票 362 00:12:20,578 --> 00:12:23,558 三年间零零散散买入 363 00:12:23,558 --> 00:12:23,739 现在 364 00:12:23,739 --> 00:12:28,690 在当前时间节点上，所以不要害怕 365 00:12:28,690 --> 00:12:29,830 如果你发现绝佳机会 366 00:12:29,830 --> 00:12:31,460 即使股价开始上涨 367 00:12:31,460 --> 00:12:32,580 继续增持更多股份 368 00:12:32,580 --> 00:12:34,980 比如你认为Netflix在72美元时是绝佳买入点 369 00:12:34,980 --> 00:12:35,360 好的 370 00:12:35,360 --> 00:12:37,019 所以你以72美元买入Netflix 371 00:12:37,019 --> 00:12:38,059 随后股价涨到82美元 372 00:12:38,059 --> 00:12:39,679 但仍觉得是绝佳机会 373 00:12:39,679 --> 00:12:41,328 继续增持更多股份 374 00:12:41,328 --> 00:12:42,849 如果股价跌至62美元 375 00:12:42,849 --> 00:12:43,849 继续增持更多股份 376 00:12:43,849 --> 00:12:44,109 对的 377 00:12:44,109 --> 00:12:44,928 如果你真正相信 378 00:12:44,928 --> 00:12:46,149 并做了详细测算 379 00:12:46,149 --> 00:12:47,408 完成了所有预测 380 00:12:47,408 --> 00:12:47,869 对的 381 00:12:47,869 --> 00:12:49,600 你已做好尽职调查 382 00:12:49,600 --> 00:12:51,039 并看到巨大机会 383 00:12:51,039 --> 00:12:53,320 需在一段时间内持续布局该股票 384 00:12:53,320 --> 00:12:53,960 并非像 385 00:12:53,960 --> 00:12:56,039 一次性买入就结束 386 00:12:56,039 --> 00:12:56,240 哦 387 00:12:56,240 --> 00:12:56,960 我买入了Netflix 388 00:12:56,960 --> 00:12:58,629 还没结束呢 389 00:12:58,629 --> 00:13:01,570 像我本人对Netflix这样的股票 390 00:13:01,570 --> 00:13:02,110 对的 391 00:13:02,110 --> 00:13:03,279 Netflix 392 00:13:03,279 --> 00:13:07,328 接下来几个月我可能大幅增持Netflix 393 00:13:07,489 --> 00:13:08,129 并非像 394 00:13:08,129 --> 00:13:09,649 只一次性买入Netflix 395 00:13:09,649 --> 00:13:10,308 我就满足了 396 00:13:10,308 --> 00:13:11,149 不不不 397 00:13:11,149 --> 00:13:17,139 接下来的六个月我可能会断断续续购买Netflix 398 00:13:17,139 --> 00:13:19,440 基本上是今年剩下的时间 399 00:13:19,440 --> 00:13:22,139 然后我可能也会把购买计划推迟到明年 400 00:13:22,139 --> 00:13:24,089 明年继续买入 401 00:13:24,089 --> 00:13:27,360 这就是现状嘛 402 00:13:27,360 --> 00:13:29,120 嗯，直觉上 403 00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:30,360 这里看起来很有吸引力 404 00:13:30,360 --> 00:13:31,259 但天啊 405 00:13:31,259 --> 00:13:32,279 这些股票 406 00:13:32,279 --> 00:13:35,240 每一只都下跌了 407 00:13:35,240 --> 00:13:37,240 都是中国城的 408 00:13:37,240 --> 00:13:38,139 但直觉 409 00:13:38,139 --> 00:13:39,460 看起来很便宜 410 00:13:39,460 --> 00:13:40,960 现在简直像泥土一样便宜 411 00:13:40,960 --> 00:13:42,078 在这个时间节点 412 00:13:42,078 --> 00:13:42,899 我们来看看 413 00:13:42,899 --> 00:13:43,678 观察一下 414 00:13:43,678 --> 00:13:45,558 但Meta有大幅贬值的评论 415 00:13:45,558 --> 00:13:46,619 所以要记住这一点 416 00:13:46,619 --> 00:13:48,779 因为它们购买的所有芯片 417 00:13:48,779 --> 00:13:50,679 所以在考虑Meta时请记住这一点 418 00:13:50,679 --> 00:13:51,200 好的 419 00:13:51,200 --> 00:13:54,409 但Intuit股价从四跌至八 420 00:13:55,769 --> 00:13:58,080 我说啊 421 00:14:01,500 --> 00:14:02,740 这很有趣 422 00:14:02,740 --> 00:14:04,899 你知道这 423 00:14:07,279 --> 00:14:08,460 这太疯狂了 424 00:14:08,460 --> 00:14:09,940 难道不疯狂吗 425 00:14:09,940 --> 00:14:11,840 我只是看看这些股票 426 00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:12,299 然后我心想 427 00:14:12,299 --> 00:14:13,159 天啊 428 00:14:13,159 --> 00:14:16,379 它们真的跌到这种价位了吗 429 00:14:16,629 --> 00:14:17,090 太惊人了 430 00:14:17,090 --> 00:14:18,669 SpaceX又下跌了 431 00:14:18,669 --> 00:14:21,110 SpaceX现价159 432 00:14:22,269 --> 00:14:22,690 是的 433 00:14:22,690 --> 00:14:24,830 这正在拖累整个市场 434 00:14:24,830 --> 00:14:25,110 没错 435 00:14:26,429 --> 00:14:27,480 哦 436 00:14:27,639 --> 00:14:29,179 现在问题就来了 437 00:14:29,179 --> 00:14:31,940 SpaceX的市值规模太大 438 00:14:31,940 --> 00:14:32,320 现在 439 00:14:32,320 --> 00:14:33,000 如果继续下跌 440 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:34,240 会拖累其他股票 441 00:14:34,240 --> 00:14:35,870 会拖累标普500 442 00:14:35,870 --> 00:14:40,070 最坏的情况是SpaceX股价跌破百元 443 00:14:40,620 --> 00:14:42,299 但这没有保证 444 00:14:42,299 --> 00:14:43,100 但我要说 445 00:14:43,100 --> 00:14:45,519 如果SpaceX股票真的严重下跌 446 00:14:45,519 --> 00:14:47,870 价格要跌破一百美元了 447 00:14:47,870 --> 00:14:50,110 这点需要记住 448 00:14:50,110 --> 00:14:51,389 哎呀伙计 449 00:14:51,389 --> 00:14:53,590 离161美元还差很远 450 00:14:53,590 --> 00:14:54,250 59美元 451 00:14:54,250 --> 00:14:55,068 没错 452 00:14:55,068 --> 00:14:56,188 销售服务团队 453 00:14:56,188 --> 00:14:56,589 现在 454 00:14:56,589 --> 00:15:00,509 那些看起来像半包零食，看看adobe 455 00:15:00,509 --> 00:15:01,908 甚至跌至193美元 456 00:15:01,908 --> 00:15:02,509 我的意思是 457 00:15:02,509 --> 00:15:04,480 有些股票其实 458 00:15:06,990 --> 00:15:07,990 关于这一点 459 00:15:07,990 --> 00:15:09,090 但如果你是买家 460 00:15:09,090 --> 00:15:12,149 我的意思是，我们仍有机会在elf上投资 461 00:15:12,149 --> 00:15:14,090 在celsius上仍有绝佳机会 462 00:15:14,090 --> 00:15:15,669 这些股票严重折价 463 00:15:15,669 --> 00:15:17,830 这些显然没被太多人讨论 464 00:15:17,830 --> 00:15:21,610 大家关注的是spacex、palantir和netflix 465 00:15:21,610 --> 00:15:22,490 这类股票 466 00:15:22,490 --> 00:15:25,759 没错，但我们有不错折扣 467 00:15:25,759 --> 00:15:27,620 这些隐藏的优质股中 468 00:15:27,620 --> 00:15:28,519 比如celsius 469 00:15:28,519 --> 00:15:29,299 比如elf 470 00:15:29,299 --> 00:15:30,360 像这样的股票 471 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:32,399 这点要记住 472 00:15:32,529 --> 00:15:35,610 关于这些时间段最关键的是 473 00:15:35,610 --> 00:15:38,649 然后我们应对这些视频就是更少更少更少 474 00:15:38,649 --> 00:15:39,568 好的 475 00:15:39,568 --> 00:15:41,089 专注长期 476 00:15:41,089 --> 00:15:42,369 如果发现好价 477 00:15:42,369 --> 00:15:43,548 增持这些好机会 478 00:15:43,548 --> 00:15:45,828 每个周期我们经历的 479 00:15:45,828 --> 00:15:49,950 许多优质公司被大幅折价 480 00:15:49,950 --> 00:15:53,230 并在6-12个月周期内持续折价 481 00:15:53,230 --> 00:15:56,830 每次最终都是绝佳买入时机 482 00:15:56,830 --> 00:16:00,090 所以我们关注像netflix和service这类股票 483 00:16:00,090 --> 00:16:00,470 现在 484 00:16:00,470 --> 00:16:01,769 salesforce和其他公司 485 00:16:01,769 --> 00:16:03,090 对的，亚马逊、meta 486 00:16:03,090 --> 00:16:04,649 这些都被大幅折价 487 00:16:04,649 --> 00:16:06,429 或许今年余下时间都会如此 488 00:16:06,429 --> 00:16:07,710 别指望这个 489 00:16:07,710 --> 00:16:10,990 但或许这就是机会 490 00:16:10,990 --> 00:16:13,490 增持股份并放入持仓 491 00:16:13,490 --> 00:16:15,269 长期投资者该怎么做 492 00:16:15,269 --> 00:16:17,370 多年持续买入 493 00:16:17,370 --> 00:16:17,818 没错 494 00:16:17,818 --> 00:16:21,818 我在市场投资已近十八年 495 00:16:22,259 --> 00:16:25,000 我喜欢继续投资未来十八年 496 00:16:25,000 --> 00:16:28,299 因此，不同时期会有不同的机会 497 00:16:28,539 --> 00:16:29,100 你知道的 498 00:16:29,100 --> 00:16:33,000 去年这个时候Netflix并不是我关注的股票 499 00:16:33,000 --> 00:16:36,049 现在Netflix对我来说非常有趣 500 00:16:36,049 --> 00:16:39,169 三年前当我买入Salesforce或ServiceNow时 501 00:16:39,169 --> 00:16:41,210 现在这类股票就不是了 502 00:16:41,210 --> 00:16:43,279 在那时它们并不吸引我 503 00:16:43,279 --> 00:16:43,659 现在 504 00:16:43,659 --> 00:16:45,740 它们非常吸引我 505 00:16:45,740 --> 00:16:46,639 嗯 506 00:16:46,639 --> 00:16:50,019 甚至Palantir也成了有趣的机会 507 00:16:50,019 --> 00:16:52,799 让我通过Palantir的例子说明我的观点 508 00:16:52,799 --> 00:16:56,529 而Palantir为何变得有趣是因为现在 509 00:16:56,529 --> 00:16:58,509 我们实际调出对比功能 510 00:16:58,509 --> 00:17:00,629 我们将调出Palantir 511 00:17:00,629 --> 00:17:04,250 并与ServiceNow并排对比 512 00:17:04,250 --> 00:17:07,130 在Salesforce那边也是如此 513 00:17:07,130 --> 00:17:09,170 我们可以找到一些超级低价的股票 514 00:17:09,170 --> 00:17:11,289 但像Palantir这样的股票 515 00:17:11,289 --> 00:17:13,160 虽然价格更高 516 00:17:13,160 --> 00:17:14,960 但其实并不算太贵 517 00:17:14,960 --> 00:17:16,119 Palantir 518 00:17:16,119 --> 00:17:16,799 看看这个 519 00:17:16,799 --> 00:17:17,440 天啊 520 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:18,099 价格太高了 521 00:17:18,099 --> 00:17:19,460 79.4美元 522 00:17:19,460 --> 00:17:20,680 其实不算太贵 523 00:17:20,680 --> 00:17:24,789 考虑到该公司每股收益和营收的强劲增长 524 00:17:26,309 --> 00:17:27,230 所以你知道的 525 00:17:27,230 --> 00:17:29,699 Palantir今年预期每股收益增长率 526 00:17:29,699 --> 00:17:31,558 轻松达到100%以上 527 00:17:31,558 --> 00:17:31,818 加上 528 00:17:31,818 --> 00:17:35,359 关键在于今年预期营收增长率是否超过100% 529 00:17:35,359 --> 00:17:37,700 75%的增长率对应79.4美元 530 00:17:37,700 --> 00:17:38,539 这并不算高 531 00:17:38,539 --> 00:17:39,960 对于这只股票来说 532 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,250 对了，看看ServiceNow这类股票 533 00:17:42,250 --> 00:17:43,269 像Salesforce这样的股票 534 00:17:43,269 --> 00:17:49,650 25倍和12倍市盈率，ServiceNow营收增长预期为 535 00:17:49,650 --> 00:17:50,170 你知道的 536 00:17:50,170 --> 00:17:53,410 ServiceNow被称为低20%，Salesforce则为高 537 00:17:53,410 --> 00:17:54,409 个位数 538 00:17:54,409 --> 00:17:57,509 我可能认为Salesforce会是低 539 00:17:57,509 --> 00:17:58,189 两位数 540 00:17:58,189 --> 00:17:58,929 记住这一点 541 00:17:58,929 --> 00:18:01,148 因此我与分析师意见不同 542 00:18:01,148 --> 00:18:02,700 这些股票太便宜了 543 00:18:02,700 --> 00:18:04,819 所以但我说 544 00:18:04,819 --> 00:18:05,460 天啊 545 00:18:05,460 --> 00:18:05,940 你知道的 546 00:18:05,940 --> 00:18:09,119 市场目前正在大幅抛售这些传言 547 00:18:09,119 --> 00:18:11,299 所以是的 548 00:18:12,819 --> 00:18:14,000 这部分就讲完了 好的 549 00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:15,180 接下来轮到汤姆了 550 00:18:15,180 --> 00:18:17,549 今天我们节目来聊聊你 551 00:18:17,549 --> 00:18:19,230 告诉我们的制作团队 552 00:18:19,230 --> 00:18:21,430 投资者过度反应了美联储会议 553 00:18:21,430 --> 00:18:23,609 这似乎已成为共识 554 00:18:23,609 --> 00:18:26,829 越来越多人认为昨天正是如此 555 00:18:26,829 --> 00:18:34,180 你觉得为什么凯文·沃什的沟通风格完全不同 556 00:18:34,180 --> 00:18:38,180 他计划用更现代化的方式监测数据 557 00:18:38,180 --> 00:18:42,400 我认为市场误读了政策前瞻指引的取消 558 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:46,490 甚至将点阵图解读为鹰派转向 559 00:18:46,490 --> 00:18:50,190 但我觉得其实凯文·沃什在说 560 00:18:50,190 --> 00:18:52,960 我将采用现代数据 561 00:18:52,960 --> 00:18:54,359 实时替代数据 562 00:18:54,359 --> 00:18:56,279 来理解通胀现状 563 00:18:56,279 --> 00:18:58,599 而目前我们并无明确立场 564 00:18:58,599 --> 00:18:59,480 在我看来 565 00:18:59,480 --> 00:19:02,119 这其实是非常利好市场的观点 566 00:19:02,119 --> 00:19:06,569 现在投资者需要理解的是 567 00:19:06,569 --> 00:19:07,650 如果数据发生变化 568 00:19:07,650 --> 00:19:09,369 那些点阵图会迅速调整 569 00:19:09,369 --> 00:19:12,720 所以整体看来这是一次非常激进的会议 570 00:19:13,000 --> 00:19:17,460 目前标普500指数位于7500点 571 00:19:17,460 --> 00:19:23,759 我一直在观察市场可能出现的不同情景 572 00:19:23,759 --> 00:19:25,619 从现在到今年剩余时间 573 00:19:25,619 --> 00:19:28,019 如果你认为昨天是鹰派信号 574 00:19:28,019 --> 00:19:30,349 而许多人也认为是鹰派 575 00:19:30,349 --> 00:19:33,569 你昨天还认为市场会出现大幅回调 576 00:19:33,569 --> 00:19:36,849 你是否改变了这个看法 577 00:19:36,849 --> 00:19:38,730 嗯 斯科特 578 00:19:39,250 --> 00:19:40,450 我们仍认为今年晚些时候市场将出现剧烈波动 579 00:19:46,509 --> 00:19:50,069 但我们不愿预测顶部 580 00:19:50,829 --> 00:19:55,009 我认为目前股市仍具吸引力 581 00:19:55,009 --> 00:19:57,589 比如SpaceX的IPO非常成功 582 00:19:57,589 --> 00:20:00,759 天啊 583 00:20:00,759 --> 00:20:01,779 听着听着听着 汤姆·李 584 00:20:01,779 --> 00:20:03,559 刚才说的话可能吓坏很多人 585 00:20:03,559 --> 00:20:07,359 你刚才说的那些话 586 00:20:09,259 --> 00:20:10,180 如果你说的属实 587 00:20:10,180 --> 00:20:11,079 这再次引发疑问 588 00:20:11,079 --> 00:20:11,920 谁知道呢 589 00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:12,619 说实话 590 00:20:12,619 --> 00:20:13,940 让我预测很多事 591 00:20:13,940 --> 00:20:15,160 有些预测很准 592 00:20:15,160 --> 00:20:16,059 有些则不准确 593 00:20:16,059 --> 00:20:16,880 没错 但如果说真的话 594 00:20:16,880 --> 00:20:18,519 对 如果属实 595 00:20:18,519 --> 00:20:21,900 今年晚些时候看起来像熊市 596 00:20:21,900 --> 00:20:23,299 天啊 597 00:20:23,299 --> 00:20:23,740 是的 598 00:20:23,740 --> 00:20:24,640 这将会很棒 599 00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:27,200 只要你收入超过支出就能买入 600 00:20:27,200 --> 00:20:28,460 在这熊市期间 601 00:20:28,460 --> 00:20:28,740 我是说 602 00:20:28,740 --> 00:20:31,039 想想我们现在获得的价值 603 00:20:31,039 --> 00:20:32,799 这些股票中的许多 604 00:20:32,799 --> 00:20:35,519 如果我们能在这个市场获得更好的交易 605 00:20:35,519 --> 00:20:38,099 我们说的网飞五美元五 606 00:20:38,099 --> 00:20:40,480 网飞现在是六十美元对吧 607 00:20:40,480 --> 00:20:41,920 我们说的元宇宙 608 00:20:41,920 --> 00:20:45,789 四百三十五点三十八 609 00:20:45,789 --> 00:20:48,029 亚马逊我们说的一美元 610 00:20:48,029 --> 00:20:49,630 九十点二 611 00:20:49,630 --> 00:20:50,269 比如 612 00:20:50,269 --> 00:20:53,109 我们在许多股票上获得了显著折扣 613 00:20:53,109 --> 00:20:56,329 我们说的销售力一十二美元服务现在 614 00:20:56,329 --> 00:20:59,009 我们说的八十点七五 615 00:20:59,009 --> 00:20:59,970 七十点七 616 00:20:59,970 --> 00:21:00,549 你知道的 617 00:21:00,549 --> 00:21:03,029 如果我们现在获得如此大的优惠 618 00:21:03,029 --> 00:21:04,470 在这个市场 619 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:11,799 玉米和汤姆李那里 620 00:21:11,799 --> 00:21:13,400 天啊 621 00:21:13,400 --> 00:21:17,039 这可能是科技股的最佳买入机会 622 00:21:17,039 --> 00:21:19,559 自2022年崩盘以来 623 00:21:19,559 --> 00:21:21,140 就在2022年 624 00:21:21,140 --> 00:21:22,660 纳斯达克经历了崩盘 625 00:21:22,660 --> 00:21:24,500 纳斯达克下跌超过3.5% 626 00:21:24,500 --> 00:21:25,059 从峰值到谷底 627 00:21:25,059 --> 00:21:28,450 从2021年四季度峰值到2022年四季度谷底 628 00:21:28,450 --> 00:21:30,509 下跌超过3.5% 629 00:21:30,509 --> 00:21:32,230 科技股遭遇崩盘 630 00:21:32,230 --> 00:21:33,900 没错而且 631 00:21:33,900 --> 00:21:37,900 我已经在许多科技相关股票上看到显著折扣 632 00:21:37,900 --> 00:21:38,220 我是说 633 00:21:38,220 --> 00:21:39,740 如果折扣更大 634 00:21:39,740 --> 00:21:39,900 是的 635 00:21:39,900 --> 00:21:42,949 这将是自2022年以来科技股的最佳机会 636 00:21:42,949 --> 00:21:47,069 没错嗯 637 00:21:47,069 --> 00:21:47,529 我是说 638 00:21:47,529 --> 00:21:48,190 我们接受吧 639 00:21:48,190 --> 00:21:48,529 我们 640 00:21:48,529 --> 00:21:51,569 我们会接受你能提供的任何机会 641 00:21:51,569 --> 00:21:53,390 作为长期投资者 642 00:21:53,390 --> 00:21:54,029 你知道的 643 00:21:54,029 --> 00:21:55,809 我不会对这个抱太大希望 644 00:21:55,809 --> 00:21:56,849 不过有一点 645 00:21:56,849 --> 00:21:58,710 你知道他对这件事有看法 646 00:21:58,710 --> 00:22:00,109 谁知道这可能正确 647 00:22:00,109 --> 00:22:00,970 也可能错误 648 00:22:00,970 --> 00:22:02,069 嗯 649 00:22:02,390 --> 00:22:04,049 我不会对这件事抱太大希望 650 00:22:04,049 --> 00:22:06,778 但我要说这会很棒 651 00:22:06,778 --> 00:22:11,038 正如你所知，该公司近期传出不少好消息 652 00:22:11,038 --> 00:22:14,900 这是一家浮盘极小的公司，仅有九十亿浮盘 653 00:22:14,900 --> 00:22:17,750 嗯，我认为凯文·沃什 654 00:22:18,069 --> 00:22:18,930 他的观点 655 00:22:18,930 --> 00:22:23,130 这实际上是对他首次新闻发布会的市场反应 656 00:22:23,130 --> 00:22:27,250 但我认为真正的挑战将在今年晚些时候出现 657 00:22:27,250 --> 00:22:29,269 所以我认为是的 658 00:22:29,269 --> 00:22:31,710 市场基调肯定会发生变化 659 00:22:31,710 --> 00:22:35,138 但现在还太早让人们期待这种情况发生 660 00:22:35,138 --> 00:22:37,659 但当你提到会有 661 00:22:37,659 --> 00:22:40,400 市场条件突然变化 662 00:22:40,400 --> 00:22:42,759 不能这样断言 663 00:22:42,759 --> 00:22:46,559 除非告诉我你为何认为会发生这种情况 664 00:22:46,839 --> 00:22:49,160 嘿斯科特，好问题 665 00:22:49,160 --> 00:22:50,829 好问题 666 00:22:51,150 --> 00:22:51,750 嗯 667 00:22:51,750 --> 00:22:53,349 我认为有太多 668 00:22:53,349 --> 00:22:55,509 我们可以相当清晰地看到 669 00:22:55,509 --> 00:22:56,450 三件事正在发生 670 00:22:56,450 --> 00:23:00,559 你知道市场最终会测试 671 00:23:00,559 --> 00:23:01,759 尤其是美联储 672 00:23:01,759 --> 00:23:05,318 正在用五个工作组重做框架 673 00:23:05,318 --> 00:23:07,849 我认为这将在2026年 674 00:23:07,849 --> 00:23:11,789 第二件事是今天SpaceX的IPO 675 00:23:11,789 --> 00:23:13,049 流通股极少 676 00:23:13,049 --> 00:23:15,890 但今年晚些时候将分阶段解锁 677 00:23:15,890 --> 00:23:19,480 加上Anthropic和OpenAI的IPO 678 00:23:19,480 --> 00:23:24,180 第三点是由于此前经历的种种动荡 679 00:23:24,180 --> 00:23:25,559 霍尔木兹海峡局势 680 00:23:25,559 --> 00:23:29,309 供应链出现短缺 681 00:23:29,309 --> 00:23:31,589 这些正是前提条件 682 00:23:31,589 --> 00:23:37,349 我认为第四个催化剂是投机资金耗尽 683 00:23:37,349 --> 00:23:38,329 嗯 684 00:23:38,329 --> 00:23:42,410 这将在某些指标如融资保证金 685 00:23:42,410 --> 00:23:48,390 出现短期修正相关水平时发生 686 00:23:48,390 --> 00:23:51,910 或者可能看到大量现金撤出观望 687 00:23:51,910 --> 00:23:55,289 但我看不出投资者如此乐观 688 00:23:55,289 --> 00:23:55,490 目前还不行 689 00:23:55,490 --> 00:23:55,930 对我来说 690 00:23:55,930 --> 00:23:57,509 我认为第四点尚未到位 691 00:23:57,509 --> 00:23:59,000 目前还不行 好吧 692 00:23:59,000 --> 00:23:59,660 汤姆，说得好 693 00:23:59,660 --> 00:24:00,180 回头聊 694 00:24:00,180 --> 00:24:00,799 谢谢，有趣 695 00:24:00,799 --> 00:24:02,160 在AI领域扩展 696 00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:03,000 投资者情绪 697 00:24:03,000 --> 00:24:03,279 是的 698 00:24:03,279 --> 00:24:04,420 投资者并不看涨 699 00:24:04,420 --> 00:24:04,930 没错 700 00:24:04,930 --> 00:24:07,529 嗯，如果从这个角度看待 701 00:24:07,529 --> 00:24:09,809 这实际上应该让你在未来六个月看涨 702 00:24:09,809 --> 00:24:12,910 当许多投资者在未来六个月看空时 703 00:24:13,950 --> 00:24:15,829 这应该让你在未来六个月看涨 704 00:24:15,829 --> 00:24:21,539 没错，但在我看来，汤姆·李在这里漏掉了关键点 705 00:24:21,539 --> 00:24:22,759 好的，我认为这一点非常重要 706 00:24:22,759 --> 00:24:24,420 我说的是 707 00:24:25,160 --> 00:24:28,359 如果SpaceX的情况 708 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:30,319 如果股价继续下跌 709 00:24:30,319 --> 00:24:34,259 假设市场在未来几个月走弱 710 00:24:34,259 --> 00:24:35,460 存在相当大的概率 711 00:24:35,460 --> 00:24:38,339 我们可能看不到Anthropic或OpenAI上市 712 00:24:38,339 --> 00:24:42,179 要看到这些公司上市，市场必须强劲 713 00:24:42,179 --> 00:24:43,019 没错 714 00:24:43,019 --> 00:24:46,019 如果SpaceX股价在唐人街持续下跌 715 00:24:46,019 --> 00:24:48,078 然后整体市场非常疲软 716 00:24:48,078 --> 00:24:50,299 尤其是科技股 717 00:24:50,299 --> 00:24:52,380 不会有太大需求 718 00:24:52,380 --> 00:24:56,769 尤其是Anthropic可能仍能完成IPO 719 00:24:56,769 --> 00:24:57,869 即使在弱市中 720 00:24:57,869 --> 00:25:01,230 仅仅因为Anthropic周围有大量 hype 和兴奋 721 00:25:01,230 --> 00:25:04,410 而我认为OpenAI目前完全没有 722 00:25:04,410 --> 00:25:06,029 所以 723 00:25:06,940 --> 00:25:08,240 有很大概率 724 00:25:08,240 --> 00:25:10,680 如果SpaceX继续下跌 725 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:12,339 如果市场疲软 726 00:25:12,339 --> 00:25:14,779 尤其是科技股 727 00:25:15,539 --> 00:25:17,279 Anthropic的概率五五开 728 00:25:17,279 --> 00:25:18,019 如果选择上市 729 00:25:18,019 --> 00:25:19,920 而我认为概率极低 730 00:25:19,920 --> 00:25:20,200 Open 731 00:25:20,200 --> 00:25:22,119 AI 甚至可能不会上市 732 00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,680 可能会保持私有状态 733 00:25:24,680 --> 00:25:26,299 这是需要记住的 734 00:25:26,299 --> 00:25:27,559 所以是的 735 00:25:27,559 --> 00:25:28,400 你只会看到 736 00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:29,059 就像 737 00:25:29,059 --> 00:25:33,390 SpaceX 能上市唯一原因是有大量投资者 738 00:25:33,390 --> 00:25:34,829 对IPO的需求 739 00:25:34,829 --> 00:25:35,230 现在 740 00:25:35,230 --> 00:25:37,960 市场表现很好 741 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:40,859 SpaceX股价一路下跌 742 00:25:40,859 --> 00:25:42,160 然后市场走弱 743 00:25:42,160 --> 00:25:42,980 是的 744 00:25:42,980 --> 00:25:45,319 这不是你想要上市的市场类型 745 00:25:45,319 --> 00:25:45,809 好的 746 00:25:45,809 --> 00:25:48,009 我们看看最终结果如何吧 747 00:25:48,009 --> 00:25:49,410 让我们听听粉红博托亚先生 748 00:25:49,410 --> 00:25:51,630 摩根士丹利全球投资策略 749 00:25:51,630 --> 00:25:53,779 私人银行与史蒂文 750 00:25:53,779 --> 00:25:57,940 你认为市场上涨行情可能持续 751 00:25:57,940 --> 00:26:01,460 我认为年底前基准目标是七万零八百点 752 00:26:01,460 --> 00:26:02,599 但你的看涨情景 753 00:26:02,599 --> 00:26:05,839 你说的并不夸张 754 00:26:05,839 --> 00:26:07,789 将达到八万九百点 755 00:26:07,789 --> 00:26:08,269 确实如此 756 00:26:08,269 --> 00:26:08,509 是啊 757 00:26:08,509 --> 00:26:08,789 我是说 758 00:26:08,789 --> 00:26:12,690 今年以来的上涨行情完全由盈利驱动 759 00:26:12,690 --> 00:26:17,999 最乐观的预期都被持续超越 760 00:26:17,999 --> 00:26:20,999 我们认为这种盈利动能将持续至年底 761 00:26:20,999 --> 00:26:23,279 如果你看我们的基准目标 762 00:26:23,279 --> 00:26:26,000 这实际上意味着当前市盈率会更低 763 00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:30,079 即使市盈率保持不变伴随盈利增长 764 00:26:30,079 --> 00:26:32,039 八万九百点的目标是可以实现的 765 00:26:32,039 --> 00:26:34,450 这增长速度相当惊人 766 00:26:34,450 --> 00:26:34,849 接下来 767 00:26:34,849 --> 00:26:37,289 在我们已见证的强劲涨幅之后 768 00:26:37,289 --> 00:26:40,150 天啊 769 00:26:40,150 --> 00:26:41,730 我现在完全分心了 770 00:26:41,730 --> 00:26:44,230 哦打扰了 771 00:26:44,230 --> 00:26:46,250 我在市场里老了 772 00:26:46,250 --> 00:26:47,849 我在市场里老了 773 00:26:47,849 --> 00:26:50,710 天啊我刚刚意识到 774 00:26:50,710 --> 00:26:52,069 因为我刚才在看贝基·克威克 775 00:26:52,069 --> 00:26:53,170 她看起来依然惊艳 776 00:26:53,170 --> 00:26:54,710 对啊太棒了 777 00:26:54,710 --> 00:26:55,190 贝基·克威克 778 00:26:55,190 --> 00:26:55,730 你看起来太棒了 779 00:26:55,730 --> 00:26:58,450 但你看我突然发现 780 00:26:58,450 --> 00:26:58,769 像 781 00:26:58,769 --> 00:26:59,890 我还记得刚入市时看贝基·克威克 782 00:26:59,890 --> 00:27:00,849 那是在我刚进入市场时 783 00:27:00,849 --> 00:27:02,650 大概十七八年前 784 00:27:02,650 --> 00:27:04,920 对啊就像你 785 00:27:04,920 --> 00:27:06,019 我们都会长大变老 786 00:27:06,019 --> 00:27:08,710 对啊真是不可思议 787 00:27:08,710 --> 00:27:12,509 八万九百点并不夸张 788 00:27:12,509 --> 00:27:13,450 我没在注意 789 00:27:13,450 --> 00:27:14,549 我完全分心了 790 00:27:14,549 --> 00:27:15,200 那一刻 791 00:27:15,200 --> 00:27:15,839 确实啊 792 00:27:15,839 --> 00:27:16,160 我是说 793 00:27:16,160 --> 00:27:20,039 今年以来的上涨行情完全由盈利驱动 794 00:27:20,039 --> 00:27:25,339 即使最乐观的预期也被不断超越 795 00:27:25,339 --> 00:27:28,339 我们认为这种盈利动能将持续到年底 796 00:27:28,339 --> 00:27:30,630 如果你看我们的基准目标 797 00:27:30,630 --> 00:27:33,349 这实际上意味着从现在起估值倍数会降低 798 00:27:33,349 --> 00:27:35,349 即使估值保持稳定 799 00:27:35,349 --> 00:27:37,430 在这样的盈利增长水平下 800 00:27:37,430 --> 00:27:39,390 8900亿美元的目标是可实现的 801 00:27:39,390 --> 00:27:41,819 这展现了相当惊人的增长 802 00:27:41,819 --> 00:27:42,220 接下来 803 00:27:42,220 --> 00:27:44,720 我们已经看到强劲的涨幅 804 00:27:44,720 --> 00:27:45,400 什么 805 00:27:45,400 --> 00:27:46,039 什么 806 00:27:46,039 --> 00:27:47,440 你认为是什么驱动了这种增长 807 00:27:47,440 --> 00:27:49,319 然后可能阻碍发展的因素是什么 808 00:27:49,319 --> 00:27:51,079 推动这一切的主要因素 809 00:27:51,079 --> 00:27:52,319 正如我之前所说是盈利表现 810 00:27:52,319 --> 00:27:54,200 其中很大一部分来自科技板块 811 00:27:54,200 --> 00:27:57,519 我们看到的是与AI相关的资本开支激增 812 00:27:57,519 --> 00:27:58,559 但有趣的是 813 00:27:58,559 --> 00:28:02,049 对于牛市行情持续的关键在于看到扩散效应 814 00:28:02,049 --> 00:28:04,730 市场预期标普11个板块中的8个 815 00:28:04,730 --> 00:28:07,009 将实现两位数的盈利增长 816 00:28:07,009 --> 00:28:08,450 如果这种情况持续 817 00:28:08,450 --> 00:28:09,769 如果我们看到这种扩散趋势 818 00:28:09,769 --> 00:28:11,450 这就是看涨行情的动力所在 819 00:28:11,450 --> 00:28:13,309 让我们更担忧的情况是 820 00:28:13,309 --> 00:28:15,710 一是资本开支故事出现放缓 821 00:28:15,710 --> 00:28:17,230 但我们认为这不会发生 822 00:28:17,230 --> 00:28:18,589 更大的风险在于 823 00:28:18,589 --> 00:28:20,950 如果突然不是基本面驱动 824 00:28:20,950 --> 00:28:22,740 而是过度乐观 825 00:28:22,740 --> 00:28:23,460 市场狂热 826 00:28:23,460 --> 00:28:25,059 非理性繁荣抬头 827 00:28:25,059 --> 00:28:26,119 这会让我们感到不安 828 00:28:26,119 --> 00:28:30,519 如果估值成为增长故事的核心而非盈利 829 00:28:30,519 --> 00:28:32,720 我们将可能更加担忧 830 00:28:32,720 --> 00:28:35,480 你听说需要特别警惕 831 00:28:36,480 --> 00:28:38,009 你需要看到 832 00:28:39,240 --> 00:28:42,240 最终所有增长都集中于少数公司 833 00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:42,759 你知道的 834 00:28:42,759 --> 00:28:43,279 就是这样 835 00:28:43,279 --> 00:28:44,319 不是A和B 836 00:28:44,319 --> 00:28:45,039 不是美光科技 837 00:28:45,039 --> 00:28:46,279 不是英伟达 838 00:28:46,279 --> 00:28:47,329 不是 839 00:28:47,329 --> 00:28:50,329 最终都回归到Meta 840 00:28:51,650 --> 00:28:52,710 亚马逊 841 00:28:52,950 --> 00:28:53,390 谷歌 842 00:28:53,390 --> 00:28:53,869 麦当劳 843 00:28:53,869 --> 00:28:54,750 在一定程度上 844 00:28:54,750 --> 00:28:55,769 微软 845 00:28:55,769 --> 00:29:00,319 如果这些公司的收入增长在某个时候出现停滞 846 00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:02,279 那时你就必须感到极度担忧 847 00:29:02,279 --> 00:29:05,539 因为人们不再像以前那样对这些股票充满热情 848 00:29:05,539 --> 00:29:08,940 因为收入增长趋势没有达到预期高度 849 00:29:08,940 --> 00:29:14,359 此外那时我们开始谈论资本支出削减的可能性 850 00:29:14,359 --> 00:29:16,880 这将损害芯片板块 851 00:29:16,880 --> 00:29:19,599 因此微软出现疲软 852 00:29:19,599 --> 00:29:21,220 即使它已经很弱了 853 00:29:21,220 --> 00:29:22,900 Meta的股票已经极其疲软 854 00:29:22,900 --> 00:29:24,019 亚马逊的状况 855 00:29:24,019 --> 00:29:25,519 已经极其疲软 856 00:29:25,519 --> 00:29:27,680 如果这些公司的收入增长开始停滞 857 00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:28,680 无论出于什么原因 858 00:29:28,680 --> 00:29:31,039 这些股票的疲软将进一步加剧 859 00:29:31,039 --> 00:29:33,500 然后开始担忧削减资本支出 860 00:29:33,500 --> 00:29:37,079 这将导致AMD和英伟达及美光的疲软 861 00:29:37,079 --> 00:29:37,859 以及所有这些 862 00:29:37,859 --> 00:29:38,519 你知道的 863 00:29:38,519 --> 00:29:40,190 与芯片相关的股票都将下跌 864 00:29:40,190 --> 00:29:40,630 你知道的 865 00:29:40,630 --> 00:29:41,069 博通 866 00:29:41,069 --> 00:29:43,910 所有这类公司如美光 867 00:29:46,299 --> 00:29:50,299 必须看到这些公司的收入增长出现停滞 868 00:29:50,299 --> 00:29:52,140 我们现在会看到这种情况吗 869 00:29:52,140 --> 00:29:53,440 目前看起来不会 870 00:29:53,440 --> 00:29:56,440 六个月或十个月后情况可能改变 871 00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:59,068 这只是需要留意的边缘因素 872 00:29:59,068 --> 00:30:00,169 比如之前提到的短期杂音 873 00:30:00,169 --> 00:30:03,449 你知道这些都是短期杂音 874 00:30:03,449 --> 00:30:05,420 你知道这些都是短期杂音 875 00:30:05,420 --> 00:30:07,200 比如Meta 876 00:30:07,200 --> 00:30:07,799 你知道的 877 00:30:07,799 --> 00:30:11,140 未来两季度收入增长可能不那么强劲 878 00:30:11,140 --> 00:30:13,279 我们可能会想 879 00:30:13,279 --> 00:30:13,980 仍然买入 880 00:30:13,980 --> 00:30:14,990 你知道我喜欢 881 00:30:14,990 --> 00:30:16,869 不要过于纠结短期杂音 882 00:30:16,869 --> 00:30:17,670 再次强调 883 00:30:17,670 --> 00:30:18,869 抓住这些交易机会 884 00:30:18,869 --> 00:30:20,029 将它们归档 885 00:30:20,029 --> 00:30:24,059 我们看到的内存芯片成本蔓延到其他领域 886 00:30:24,059 --> 00:30:25,339 这不会让你担忧吗 887 00:30:25,339 --> 00:30:27,940 还是这正是强劲增长的信号 888 00:30:27,940 --> 00:30:31,579 我认为这是市场需求巨大的体现 889 00:30:31,579 --> 00:30:35,799 你看我们今年的重点推荐之一是新兴市场 890 00:30:35,799 --> 00:30:38,369 尤其是亚洲、韩国、台湾 891 00:30:38,369 --> 00:30:40,289 芯片故事一直是其中的重要部分 892 00:30:40,289 --> 00:30:42,829 新兴市场今年上涨了30% 893 00:30:42,829 --> 00:30:46,250 但新兴市场盈利增长预计达50% 894 00:30:46,250 --> 00:30:46,990 所以是的 895 00:30:46,990 --> 00:30:48,990 有些瓶颈正在逐渐显现 896 00:30:48,990 --> 00:30:50,809 但这表明需求健康 897 00:30:50,809 --> 00:30:53,450 我们必须观察这些瓶颈如何发展 898 00:30:53,450 --> 00:30:58,549 你觉得为什么到现在为止这轮行情不受青睐 899 00:30:58,549 --> 00:31:00,970 可能部分原因是霍尔木兹海峡被封锁 900 00:31:00,970 --> 00:31:04,529 对地缘政治风险的真正担忧 901 00:31:04,529 --> 00:31:05,138 是的 902 00:31:05,138 --> 00:31:07,058 而且可能没有支付更多 903 00:31:07,058 --> 00:31:09,138 呃贝基·奎克 904 00:31:09,138 --> 00:31:11,339 这就是它不受青睐的原因 905 00:31:11,339 --> 00:31:12,299 因为你 906 00:31:12,299 --> 00:31:14,359 市场简直让人失望 907 00:31:14,359 --> 00:31:15,839 就市场短期表现而言 908 00:31:15,839 --> 00:31:16,259 你知道的 909 00:31:16,259 --> 00:31:18,839 市场短期发生的变化 910 00:31:18,839 --> 00:31:22,440 像下跌50%的股票数量 911 00:31:22,440 --> 00:31:25,140 从历史高点回落的股票名单很长 912 00:31:25,140 --> 00:31:27,279 而且是那些超级知名公司 913 00:31:28,420 --> 00:31:28,940 你知道的 914 00:31:28,940 --> 00:31:29,940 总之就是 915 00:31:29,940 --> 00:31:32,140 我们只是有一个基本平稳的市场 916 00:31:32,140 --> 00:31:32,980 你持有D 917 00:31:32,980 --> 00:31:34,180 你持有美光科技 918 00:31:34,180 --> 00:31:36,119 你表现得非常出色 919 00:31:36,119 --> 00:31:37,460 你却不 920 00:31:38,500 --> 00:31:39,740 对你来说正是艰难时期 921 00:31:39,740 --> 00:31:40,720 这难道不对吗 922 00:31:40,720 --> 00:31:45,480 因此市场 rally 并不被所有人喜爱 923 00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:46,829 当所有人都表现良好时 924 00:31:46,829 --> 00:31:48,910 但这并非所有人都好 925 00:31:48,910 --> 00:31:50,349 事实并非如此 926 00:31:50,349 --> 00:31:53,789 如果你持有AMD和美光 927 00:31:53,789 --> 00:31:55,329 或这类股票 928 00:31:55,329 --> 00:31:56,329 你表现惊人 929 00:31:56,329 --> 00:31:56,809 没错 930 00:31:56,809 --> 00:31:57,529 如果你没有 931 00:31:57,529 --> 00:31:59,980 你会觉得市场一无是处 932 00:31:59,980 --> 00:32:02,779 因此市场对财报非常抵触 933 00:32:02,779 --> 00:32:03,579 结果 934 00:32:03,579 --> 00:32:07,039 我认为接连不断的消息头条 935 00:32:07,039 --> 00:32:07,819 不仅今年 936 00:32:07,819 --> 00:32:09,140 过去几年都有 937 00:32:09,140 --> 00:32:10,519 无论是政治 938 00:32:10,519 --> 00:32:11,880 地缘政治 939 00:32:11,880 --> 00:32:14,980 对能源价格和AI泡沫的担忧 940 00:32:14,980 --> 00:32:19,539 对AI可能颠覆的行业担忧，比如软件领域 941 00:32:19,539 --> 00:32:23,359 投资者一直面临大量干扰 942 00:32:23,359 --> 00:32:26,039 但我们始终回归的核心是财报结果 943 00:32:26,039 --> 00:32:28,039 财报持续创下新高 944 00:32:28,039 --> 00:32:29,240 从长远来看 945 00:32:29,240 --> 00:32:30,920 最终推动市场的是 946 00:32:30,920 --> 00:32:33,960 所以你认为金融业近期表现不佳的原因是什么 947 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:36,799 所以金融业至今仍是有趣的落后板块 948 00:32:36,799 --> 00:32:39,799 截至今年的盈利增长实际上在改善 949 00:32:39,799 --> 00:32:41,440 市场预期正在上升 950 00:32:41,440 --> 00:32:43,640 但该板块今年实际下跌 951 00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,019 我认为这是一系列担忧 952 00:32:45,019 --> 00:32:48,130 首先你有关于私人信贷现状的担忧 953 00:32:48,130 --> 00:32:53,329 其次担忧能源价格对贷款需求的影响 954 00:32:53,329 --> 00:32:55,890 第三则是AI颠覆带来的担忧 955 00:32:55,890 --> 00:32:59,429 以及它对保险等金融领域的影响 956 00:32:59,429 --> 00:33:01,909 但最终看机会所在 957 00:33:01,909 --> 00:33:04,480 特别是在银行业等板块 958 00:33:04,480 --> 00:33:07,380 核心驱动力仍是贷款需求 959 00:33:07,380 --> 00:33:08,539 我们看到的是 960 00:33:08,539 --> 00:33:09,980 尽管所有头条新闻 961 00:33:09,980 --> 00:33:11,869 贷款需求依然强劲 962 00:33:11,869 --> 00:33:13,970 我们认为这个落后板块存在机会 963 00:33:13,970 --> 00:33:17,410 还有什么潜在担忧吗 964 00:33:17,410 --> 00:33:23,849 除了动物精神复苏和估值超越盈利预期 965 00:33:23,849 --> 00:33:25,269 超出盈利水平的估值 966 00:33:25,269 --> 00:33:26,000 它们应该 967 00:33:26,000 --> 00:33:26,579 你知道的 968 00:33:26,579 --> 00:33:27,720 我们担心 969 00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:28,000 你知道的 970 00:33:28,000 --> 00:33:30,180 从情绪面可能出现过热 971 00:33:30,180 --> 00:33:30,940 正如我们所说 972 00:33:30,940 --> 00:33:31,539 我们确实担忧 973 00:33:31,539 --> 00:33:34,000 并密切关注能源市场动态 974 00:33:34,000 --> 00:33:35,500 及其对消费者的影响 975 00:33:35,500 --> 00:33:37,980 我们的基准情景是逐步降温 976 00:33:37,980 --> 00:33:39,429 能源价格将回落 977 00:33:39,429 --> 00:33:40,528 正如我们所见 978 00:33:40,528 --> 00:33:44,809 但高能源价格带来的阻力仍是风险 979 00:33:44,809 --> 00:33:46,910 观察消费者时 980 00:33:46,910 --> 00:33:48,630 消费依然非常强劲 981 00:33:48,630 --> 00:33:49,690 非常坚韧 982 00:33:49,690 --> 00:33:53,109 部分来自政策刺激和政策尾效 983 00:33:53,109 --> 00:33:55,099 上半年更高的退税额 984 00:33:55,099 --> 00:33:56,779 这些因素将逐渐消退 985 00:33:56,779 --> 00:33:58,259 我们需要持续关注 986 00:33:58,259 --> 00:34:00,160 接下来劳动力市场会如何发展 987 00:34:00,160 --> 00:34:03,309 近期劳动力市场出现良好复苏 988 00:34:03,309 --> 00:34:05,150 若再次出现疲软 989 00:34:05,150 --> 00:34:07,279 这些都可能成为消费阻力 990 00:34:07,279 --> 00:34:08,340 我们知道这对关键 991 00:34:08,340 --> 00:34:09,820 故事的持续至关重要 992 00:34:09,820 --> 00:34:11,300 你完全没有提到美联储 993 00:34:16,068 --> 00:34:17,889 上周他的表现你觉得怎么样 994 00:34:17,889 --> 00:34:18,679 他所说的内容 995 00:34:18,679 --> 00:34:20,579 以及美联储可能采取的行动 996 00:34:20,579 --> 00:34:21,199 我是说 997 00:34:21,199 --> 00:34:21,398 是的 998 00:34:21,398 --> 00:34:25,539 因此我们认为政策不会发生重大变化 999 00:34:25,539 --> 00:34:26,280 你知道的 1000 00:34:26,280 --> 00:34:27,360 利率市场 1001 00:34:28,360 --> 00:34:32,278 市场预计年底前可能加息1.5到2次 1002 00:34:32,278 --> 00:34:32,679 你知道的 1003 00:34:32,679 --> 00:34:34,139 明年年初 1004 00:34:34,139 --> 00:34:35,639 我们预计他们可能会暂停 1005 00:34:35,639 --> 00:34:42,659 等待能源价格下降是否能缓解通胀压力 1006 00:34:42,659 --> 00:34:43,860 我认为暂停的应该是 1007 00:34:43,860 --> 00:34:46,780 你暂停的暂停是可以的 1008 00:34:46,780 --> 00:34:48,929 符合我们的基准情景和极端情景 1009 00:34:48,929 --> 00:34:50,030 以及牛市情景 1010 00:34:50,030 --> 00:34:53,289 我认为市场能承受几次加息 1011 00:34:53,289 --> 00:34:57,429 你知道预期已从三次降息调整为两次加息 1012 00:34:57,429 --> 00:34:59,889 盈利故事并未受挫 1013 00:34:59,889 --> 00:35:02,269 我们认为这一趋势可以持续 1014 00:35:02,269 --> 00:35:03,369 接下来更值得关注的是 1015 00:35:03,369 --> 00:35:06,360 本周会议显示的重大政策转变 1016 00:35:06,360 --> 00:35:09,340 是声明将更简短 1017 00:35:09,340 --> 00:35:11,360 点阵图可能不再聚焦 1018 00:35:11,360 --> 00:35:14,579 以及美联储过去十年的透明度传统 1019 00:35:14,579 --> 00:35:14,860 你知道的 1020 00:35:14,860 --> 00:35:15,980 过去十年 1021 00:35:15,980 --> 00:35:18,099 部分透明度可能被削弱 1022 00:35:18,099 --> 00:35:21,239 这会增加政策的波动性 1023 00:35:21,239 --> 00:35:22,179 但我们认为 1024 00:35:22,179 --> 00:35:24,920 不会出现冲击牛市市场的因素 1025 00:35:25,639 --> 00:35:29,159 综合当前局势 1026 00:35:29,159 --> 00:35:29,679 哦 1027 00:35:29,679 --> 00:35:31,239 美联储新面孔 1028 00:35:31,239 --> 00:35:31,820 blah blah 1029 00:35:31,820 --> 00:35:32,400 blah 1030 00:35:32,400 --> 00:35:33,000 对 1031 00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:34,309 嗯 1032 00:35:34,829 --> 00:35:35,929 全部短期 1033 00:35:35,929 --> 00:35:37,429 你知道市场会非常 1034 00:35:38,429 --> 00:35:38,869 嗯 1035 00:35:38,869 --> 00:35:42,090 你知道要警惕他的意图 1036 00:35:42,090 --> 00:35:44,579 他曾提到缩减资产负债表 1037 00:35:44,579 --> 00:35:45,079 大幅缩减 1038 00:35:45,079 --> 00:35:46,820 市场可能对此感到担忧 1039 00:35:46,820 --> 00:35:48,380 这对资产价格意味着什么 1040 00:35:48,380 --> 00:35:49,250 对 1041 00:35:49,250 --> 00:35:51,750 但他提到美联储 1042 00:35:51,750 --> 00:35:52,750 可能 1043 00:35:52,750 --> 00:35:58,489 他认为美联储可能拥有一个规模更小的资产负债表 1044 00:35:58,489 --> 00:35:59,929 规模更小的资产负债表 1045 00:35:59,929 --> 00:36:03,360 最终可能实现远低于当前水平的利率 1046 00:36:03,360 --> 00:36:04,980 这是一个非常引人入胜的概念 1047 00:36:04,980 --> 00:36:06,699 他认为现在这是有可能的 1048 00:36:06,699 --> 00:36:08,900 但市场可能并不认同这些观点 1049 00:36:08,900 --> 00:36:09,920 这就是事实 1050 00:36:09,920 --> 00:36:11,820 作为投资者 1051 00:36:11,820 --> 00:36:18,659 要关注优质资产并以合理价格买入囤积 1052 00:36:18,659 --> 00:36:21,760 因为所有关于短期市场的讨论 1053 00:36:21,760 --> 00:36:23,119 最终都会变得无关紧要 1054 00:36:23,119 --> 00:36:24,199 一个月后 1055 00:36:24,199 --> 00:36:24,980 三个月后 1056 00:36:24,980 --> 00:36:25,880 六个月后 1057 00:36:25,880 --> 00:36:28,650 届时你会看到绝佳的投资机会 1058 00:36:28,650 --> 00:36:29,250 抓住投资良机 1059 00:36:29,250 --> 00:36:29,750 绝佳的投资机会 1060 00:36:29,750 --> 00:36:31,320 我知道我一定会安然无恙 1061 00:36:31,320 --> 00:36:32,800 感谢大家一如既往的参与 1062 00:36:32,800 --> 00:36:33,860 非常感谢你们的到来 1063 00:36:33,860 --> 00:36:37,469 如果你想成为比现在更优秀的投资者 1064 00:36:37,469 --> 00:36:38,869 请点击下方置顶评论 1065 00:36:38,869 --> 00:36:39,530 填写论坛信息 1066 00:36:39,530 --> 00:36:40,829 加入我的私密社群 1067 00:36:40,829 --> 00:36:42,210 在关闭新成员申请前 1068 00:36:42,210 --> 00:36:43,590 我们正在关闭新成员通道 1069 00:36:43,590 --> 00:36:45,079 仅剩四天 1070 00:36:45,079 --> 00:36:46,760 我们将停止接受申请 1071 00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:48,559 获得所有最佳课程的访问权限 1072 00:36:48,559 --> 00:36:49,059 课程体系 1073 00:36:49,059 --> 00:36:50,199 成为股市大师 1074 00:36:50,199 --> 00:36:51,199 百万富翁实战手册 1075 00:36:51,199 --> 00:36:52,179 股票期权精通课程 1076 00:36:52,179 --> 00:36:53,309 分红投资精通课程 1077 00:36:53,309 --> 00:36:54,730 财务报表精通课程 1078 00:36:54,730 --> 00:36:56,389 我的估值精修课程 1079 00:36:56,389 --> 00:36:58,880 这将带你达到更高水平 1080 00:36:58,880 --> 00:36:59,900 我们正在研究 1081 00:36:59,900 --> 00:37:01,840 如何确定股票的合理价格 1082 00:37:01,840 --> 00:37:04,869 这是很多人感到困惑的问题 1083 00:37:04,869 --> 00:37:06,510 获取千倍收益股票 1084 00:37:06,510 --> 00:37:06,789 官网 1085 00:37:06,789 --> 00:37:07,989 加入我的私密Discord 1086 00:37:07,989 --> 00:37:08,750 专属聊天室 1087 00:37:08,750 --> 00:37:09,389 每周视频更新 1088 00:37:09,389 --> 00:37:12,429 加入后我们将邮寄实体会员卡 1089 00:37:12,429 --> 00:37:13,938 这是私密社群会员卡 1090 00:37:13,938 --> 00:37:15,679 这是千倍收益卡 1091 00:37:15,679 --> 00:37:16,889 我们会寄送这张卡 1092 00:37:16,889 --> 00:37:18,769 如果你选择终身加入 1093 00:37:18,769 --> 00:37:21,269 我们也会把黑卡寄给你们 1094 00:37:21,269 --> 00:37:21,610 好的 1095 00:37:21,610 --> 00:37:22,250 然后啊 1096 00:37:22,250 --> 00:37:22,969 你的欢迎礼包 1097 00:37:22,969 --> 00:37:23,750 所有这些优质东西 1098 00:37:23,750 --> 00:37:24,070 好的 1099 00:37:24,070 --> 00:37:26,420 你们喜欢的东西，祝你们度过美好一天
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