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美股 警惕科技股泡沫风险!利好!企业AI支持加速,NVDA还涨吗?CPU三巨头喜迎利好!TSLA继续大暴涨!PLTR需警惕风险!QCOM、INTC、AMD、AM

BV1u75N6TE2Q · 请不要叫我梁同学
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发布时间 2026-05-12 05:07
时长 14分59秒
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原始字幕
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大家好

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今天是5月11日星期一

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我们继续分析美股

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本期内容如下

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我们先看消息面

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警惕科技股估值泡沫

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著名投资人迈克尔伯里警示市场

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当前AI热潮

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已将科技股估值推至历史级危险区间

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00:00:22,138 --> 00:00:24,649
投资者应采取保守策略

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规避泡沫风险

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00:00:28,339 --> 00:00:32,780
抛物线市暴涨警示警惕非理性上涨

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遵循历史规律

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果断采取减仓避险措施

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遵循历史规律

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抛物线式暴涨终将回归基本面

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历史反复证明

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偏离价值太远的资产

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价格最终会以惨烈的方式回归极限

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贪婪信号

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当市场普遍相信这次不一样并追逐趋势时

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00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:01,460
往往是泡沫接近顶峰的信号

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00:01:01,460 --> 00:01:04,319
应视为投资中的红色警报

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00:01:04,319 --> 00:01:06,239
投资者行动建议

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00:01:06,239 --> 00:01:08,278
摒弃短期贪婪

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优先考虑投资组合的长期稳健

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对于已出现极端走势的个股

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应果断清仓

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锁定利润

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规避后续波动风险

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企业AI支出加速

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投行wild bush分析认为

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近期财报季数据清晰表明

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企业级AI支出正在加速

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AI技术正从概念走向实质性

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收入贡献

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为市场注入强心剂

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亮眼财报击碎疑虑

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多家科技巨头的扎实业绩

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有力印证了AI正从概念炒作转向实际收入贡献

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支出加速信号

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PENTATERDDOG推流等公司的超预期财报表明

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企业级AI支出正在加速而非放缓

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数据印证趋势

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PUNTEER营收创上市以来最快增速

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DDOG股价单日暴涨28%

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均是AI带来实质性收入的证明

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市场一律消散

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扎实的财报数据

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正在击碎市场对AI支出放缓的疑虑

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为科技股提供了基本面支撑

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软件巨头再获信心

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传统软件巨头凭借深厚护城河

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正受益于AI浪潮

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英伟达财报将成为市场新催化剂

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护城河依旧深

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市场担忧

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大模型公司掏空传统软件市场的观点被证伪

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sales false等平台型巨头依然具备强大竞争力

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英伟达成焦点

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市场目光聚焦于英伟达

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即将发布的第一季度财报

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其BLACKWELL架构GPU的强劲需求有望成为新催化剂

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乘数效应显著

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每一美元投入英伟达芯片

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可在科技生态中产生8~10美元的乘数效应

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持续驱动产业链发展

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服务器CPU超级周期

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受AI推理与智能体应用需求激增驱动

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服务器CPU市场正迎来结构性增长的超级周期

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AMD英特尔和高通成为主要受益者

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AI应用转向驱动AI应用重心从训练向推理转移

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服务器CPU的重要性大幅提升

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迎来增长新周期

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需求结构变化

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受AI推理与智能体应用需求激增驱动

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服务器CPU市场正迎来结构性增长

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硬件比例重构

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GPU与CPU的使用比例已从训练阶段的八比一

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降至四比一

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未来甚至可能趋近一比一

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CPU地位提升

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CPU在数据调度

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内存管理与系统协作中的核心重要性

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被重新定义

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成为关键增长驱动力

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三强争霸新格局

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AAMD英特尔和高通在新一轮竞争中各具优势

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共同推动服务器CPU市场进入长期增长通道

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AAMD强势崛起

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AAMD在2026年第一季度

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数据中心收入首次超越英特尔

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服务器市占率已逼近50%

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并大幅上调了市场规模预期

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00:05:02,399 --> 00:05:04,699
英特尔强劲反弹

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00:05:04,699 --> 00:05:07,180
尽管面临产能挑战

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00:05:07,180 --> 00:05:11,158
但英特尔服务器CPU需求强劲反弹

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并获得特斯拉作为18A制成

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关键合作伙伴的背书

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高通蓄势待发

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高通正基于arm架构开发数据中心级CPU

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最快可能在2026年中亮相

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为市场带来第三股竞争力量

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供应瓶颈转移

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当前HBM与先进封装产能是主要供应瓶颈

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拥有封装伙伴关系的厂商将占据优势

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好我们看一下今天市场的表现

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今天的多头呢似乎变弱了一些哈

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呃那么市场一直强劲的增长

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这种态势历史上很少哈

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那么回调呢也有可能随时会到来

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所以这是一个美股

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是一个非常复杂的市场

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实际上啊

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那么今天的K线呢变弱了

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大家要开始提高警惕哈是吧

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你不知道他什么时候就掉下来啊

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那么刚才空头的警惕呢是有道理的哈

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嗯是有道理的

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因为恐高和这个获利了结的资金呢

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可能开始陆续的出现哈

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你看K线变小就是一种征兆

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另外呢刚才的基本面呢一些乐观的预期

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它指的是更长的视野哈

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所以短期范围内这个技术回调是有可能的是吧

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更长周期来说

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业务面应该没什么太大问题

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我们看下15分钟图

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你看这个K线越来越密集了哈

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表明又要横盘哈

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大家要随时提防可能的啊

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回调或者是怎么样哈

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这个谁也能谁能猜出来

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那到底会怎么样

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没人能知道哈

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所以一旦空头有一些强劲的表现

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多头就要注意了对吧

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那现在有吗

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没有啊

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但是我们看到多头的K线确实变小了一些啊

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我们的趋势线一定要画好

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密切关注这些K线的动向

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现在也没法拆顶了是吧

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简单看一下道指

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唉

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道指还没创新高呢

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那么这周或者下周早些时候

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接下来几个交易日吧

149
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关注一下能不能突破高点行吧

150
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嗯那今天是一个微微的横盘小阳线哈

151
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表明这片呢

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空头其实没有在竖直方向上使劲砸盘

153
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这样的话突破高位阻力区的概率在提高

154
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罗素今天也是阳线啊

155
00:07:35,829 --> 00:07:38,009
他也是创了新高之后哈

156
00:07:38,009 --> 00:07:39,910
它的走势呢也比较陡峭

157
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也要画好趋势线

158
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今天是一个小阳线

159
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空头强吗

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不强不用理睬

161
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标普整体而言也是一根阳线哈

162
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其实线画好就可以了

163
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简单看一下15分钟图没法裁定啊

164
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说实话看不出来

165
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我是看不出来啊

166
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嗯继续观察哈

167
00:08:00,879 --> 00:08:03,509
提高警惕好

168
00:08:03,509 --> 00:08:06,250
我们看一下市场整体的表现哈

169
00:08:06,449 --> 00:08:08,069
先看一下日历图

170
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那今天整体都是阳线

171
00:08:10,050 --> 00:08:13,629
但是我们看到这个就是说刚才股指期货啊

172
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都是阳性

173
00:08:14,189 --> 00:08:17,470
但是我们看到里边有些行业开始下跌了哈

174
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这表明什么

175
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表明我们看到大盘的阳线变小

176
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实际上是有一些行业开始回调导致的

177
00:08:25,649 --> 00:08:29,410
多头的动能在逐步的结构性的减弱哈

178
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我们看到互联网内容信息这个下跌了哈

179
00:08:32,889 --> 00:08:35,149
半导体涨幅只有1.48%

180
00:08:35,149 --> 00:08:38,149
而互联网这个下跌了2.57%哈

181
00:08:38,149 --> 00:08:40,808
但是他们两个权重应该是不一样

182
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就表明开始有一些啊分化的行情了哈

183
00:08:43,948 --> 00:08:48,149
这就是多头减弱的一些征兆对吧

184
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软件这个也是微跌

185
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消费电子涨的涨幅不大

186
00:08:52,909 --> 00:08:55,429
微微的波动呃

187
00:08:55,429 --> 00:08:56,809
那么其他的油气资产

188
00:08:56,809 --> 00:08:58,250
汽车制造这个还行哈

189
00:08:59,450 --> 00:09:03,460
好我们看一下这个领涨的板块啊

190
00:09:03,460 --> 00:09:06,120
今天的白银哈涨幅还是挺大哈

191
00:09:06,120 --> 00:09:08,000
但白银本身是一个震荡行情啊

192
00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:09,809
所以交易难度比较大

193
00:09:09,809 --> 00:09:14,809
今天主要我们密切关注的主要是这个以太坊

194
00:09:14,809 --> 00:09:16,730
或者叫这个加密货币相关的

195
00:09:16,730 --> 00:09:18,929
比如说corn corn base

196
00:09:18,929 --> 00:09:23,169
还有我们的特斯拉相关概念的以及能源类的哈

197
00:09:23,169 --> 00:09:25,710
比如说plug这个是吧

198
00:09:25,710 --> 00:09:29,039
像矿业和白银是另外一个角度哈

199
00:09:29,039 --> 00:09:30,679
那其他的我们没有关注

200
00:09:30,679 --> 00:09:33,379
那我们不妨先看一下coin吧

201
00:09:33,740 --> 00:09:34,759
做啥呀

202
00:09:34,759 --> 00:09:36,220
宽做啥

203
00:09:36,220 --> 00:09:40,000
做多抄底正当时不正当时是吧

204
00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:44,009
嗯那么这两根阳线非常的强势哈

205
00:09:44,009 --> 00:09:46,230
特别是今天啊对吧

206
00:09:46,230 --> 00:09:47,789
尝试摆脱这个底部区域哈

207
00:09:47,789 --> 00:09:50,860
所以做多好

208
00:09:50,860 --> 00:09:56,139
这是一个我们另外我们直接去看我们的列表吧

209
00:09:56,139 --> 00:09:58,269
都在列表里

210
00:09:58,870 --> 00:10:03,529
你看我们稳定币相关的这个图表c r c l circle

211
00:10:03,529 --> 00:10:07,450
我们说啊做多回调止跌止跌做多是吧

212
00:10:07,450 --> 00:10:08,509
今天又是大阳线

213
00:10:08,509 --> 00:10:10,730
但是今天的日内K线非常的复杂

214
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我们学习一下嗯

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00:10:13,149 --> 00:10:15,929
唉也就是开盘15分钟搞了一下哈

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00:10:15,929 --> 00:10:17,289
又弹了上来啊

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00:10:17,289 --> 00:10:20,539
那么全天整体上就是一个拉涨的状态

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00:10:20,539 --> 00:10:22,919
好日线呢看起来比较清晰哈

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00:10:22,919 --> 00:10:24,620
那么接下来一到两个交易日

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00:10:24,620 --> 00:10:26,679
看看能不能摆脱中间区域哈

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00:10:26,679 --> 00:10:28,259
继续涨

222
00:10:28,990 --> 00:10:32,009
我们刚才提到的这个CPU哈

223
00:10:32,009 --> 00:10:35,840
我们进几周以来近一两个月吧

224
00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:38,840
我们一直在关注这个CPU相关的动向啊

225
00:10:38,840 --> 00:10:41,279
刚才那里边有一些比例啊

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00:10:41,279 --> 00:10:43,440
说从这个八比一

227
00:10:43,440 --> 00:10:46,740
也就是说GPU的数量比上CPU的数量

228
00:10:46,740 --> 00:10:48,539
原来的使用量是八比一

229
00:10:48,539 --> 00:10:50,379
现在降低到了四比一

230
00:10:50,379 --> 00:10:51,860
也就是说相对而言

231
00:10:51,860 --> 00:10:55,078
CPU的占比也就使用量呢在增加啊

232
00:10:55,078 --> 00:10:56,999
那么后边有可能变成一比一

233
00:10:56,999 --> 00:10:58,658
所以你看高通涨了吧

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00:10:58,658 --> 00:10:59,839
直勾勾的涨

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我记得这图我们说在这应该做多来着吧

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00:11:02,318 --> 00:11:05,720
嗯还有我们的那个英特尔哈

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00:11:05,720 --> 00:11:07,600
都是暴涨对吧

238
00:11:07,600 --> 00:11:09,799
英特尔现在能猜顶吗

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00:11:09,799 --> 00:11:10,440
还不能哈

240
00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:11,860
虽然说有点横盘震荡

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00:11:11,860 --> 00:11:14,879
但今天英特尔还是收涨的状态

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00:11:15,120 --> 00:11:16,740
我们看一下15分钟图

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00:11:16,740 --> 00:11:18,759
嗯也得提防一下是吧

244
00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,789
横排偏阳线

245
00:11:23,950 --> 00:11:24,990
还有AMD啊

246
00:11:24,990 --> 00:11:26,970
AMD我们之前也在做哈

247
00:11:26,970 --> 00:11:31,610
AMD这是我们记得在这个这篇的时候

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00:11:31,610 --> 00:11:34,659
我们就说啊应该做do哈是吧

249
00:11:34,659 --> 00:11:36,480
哎那么现在涨这么陡峭

250
00:11:36,480 --> 00:11:40,899
那么中期范围内会不会有一些明显的回调

251
00:11:41,200 --> 00:11:42,120
不好说啊

252
00:11:42,120 --> 00:11:44,080
说真的很难去猜

253
00:11:44,080 --> 00:11:46,929
我觉得要给回调也非常的正常是吧

254
00:11:46,929 --> 00:11:47,809
现在给了吗

255
00:11:47,809 --> 00:11:48,450
还没有

256
00:11:48,450 --> 00:11:51,840
今天人家AMD是收涨一点点是吧

257
00:11:51,840 --> 00:11:54,799
我们看下15分钟一般也是一个高位震荡哈

258
00:11:54,799 --> 00:11:55,559
冲高回落

259
00:11:55,559 --> 00:11:58,779
那这种冲高回落呢也可以演化成更深的回调啊

260
00:11:58,779 --> 00:12:00,259
要提防一下

261
00:12:00,259 --> 00:12:01,840
那日线图看不出来哈

262
00:12:01,840 --> 00:12:04,720
要说哎呀这大阳线后边涨不动了

263
00:12:04,720 --> 00:12:06,840
这只是一种理论而已

264
00:12:06,840 --> 00:12:09,879
它并不代表百分之百的判断准确哈

265
00:12:09,879 --> 00:12:12,759
所以我们主要还是观察空头阴线啊

266
00:12:12,759 --> 00:12:14,220
砸盘的力度哈

267
00:12:14,220 --> 00:12:16,279
再再观察

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00:12:16,519 --> 00:12:17,999
我们看一下英伟达

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00:12:17,999 --> 00:12:20,278
英伟达今天是阳线哈

270
00:12:20,278 --> 00:12:24,450
呃那么下周哈应该是发布财报

271
00:12:24,450 --> 00:12:26,309
那现在没法看空啊

272
00:12:26,309 --> 00:12:28,889
今天人家收涨了将近2%啊

273
00:12:28,889 --> 00:12:30,149
冲高之后呃

274
00:12:30,149 --> 00:12:31,129
创了历史新高啊

275
00:12:31,129 --> 00:12:32,649
有点小上一线啊

276
00:12:32,649 --> 00:12:35,870
我们看一下15分钟的细节是吧

277
00:12:35,870 --> 00:12:38,230
有说哎一直涨的受不了啊

278
00:12:38,549 --> 00:12:39,230
他不走

279
00:12:39,230 --> 00:12:40,309
是所有的图都涨哈

280
00:12:40,309 --> 00:12:41,470
又有跌的啊

281
00:12:41,470 --> 00:12:43,190
所以不是都上涨啊

282
00:12:43,190 --> 00:12:47,029
我们把这趋势线调到这吧是吧

283
00:12:47,029 --> 00:12:47,769
踩顶吗

284
00:12:47,769 --> 00:12:48,629
不踩顶啊

285
00:12:48,629 --> 00:12:49,809
怎么踩顶啊

286
00:12:49,809 --> 00:12:51,929
注意我们这里是顺势思维为主啊

287
00:12:51,929 --> 00:12:53,200
我们可以再画一个

288
00:12:53,200 --> 00:12:54,720
就日线宽一点哈

289
00:12:54,720 --> 00:12:56,860
有时候它横盘一下继续涨什么的

290
00:12:56,860 --> 00:12:58,639
因为日线图是阳线啊

291
00:12:58,639 --> 00:13:00,740
大阳线有上影线

292
00:13:00,740 --> 00:13:01,779
它也是大阳线啊

293
00:13:01,779 --> 00:13:04,059
今天也不是说太大

294
00:13:04,059 --> 00:13:06,139
反正中等偏强的阳线吧

295
00:13:06,139 --> 00:13:09,340
嗯不能裁定说可可不可以鉴定

296
00:13:09,340 --> 00:13:10,120
当然可以了

297
00:13:10,120 --> 00:13:10,940
一切皆有可能

298
00:13:10,940 --> 00:13:12,940
但是我们我们一切皆有可能

299
00:13:12,940 --> 00:13:14,568
他是有条件的哈

300
00:13:14,568 --> 00:13:16,288
就是说现在不想用

301
00:13:16,288 --> 00:13:17,688
一切皆有可能这几个字哈

302
00:13:17,688 --> 00:13:19,688
哈就是说现在还是看涨哈

303
00:13:19,688 --> 00:13:24,720
嗯嗯对好

304
00:13:24,720 --> 00:13:25,639
也有一些下跌的哈

305
00:13:25,639 --> 00:13:27,559
我们看一下PALET哎

306
00:13:27,559 --> 00:13:29,549
PALETEER有点疲软哈

307
00:13:29,549 --> 00:13:31,289
不管新闻怎么说哈

308
00:13:31,289 --> 00:13:33,929
大家还是要关注这个直升区的有效性

309
00:13:33,929 --> 00:13:35,620
这个多头老是疲软

310
00:13:35,620 --> 00:13:36,840
他要么就是筑底呢

311
00:13:36,840 --> 00:13:39,220
要么就是悬在空中想要下跌哈

312
00:13:39,220 --> 00:13:42,039
也就是说它呈现出一种横盘运动的状态

313
00:13:42,039 --> 00:13:43,559
又来了横盘

314
00:13:43,559 --> 00:13:46,259
所以多头们一定要提高警惕哈

315
00:13:46,259 --> 00:13:49,080
不是所有的图都有最终会上涨啊

316
00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:51,828
也有可能有更深一点回调的可能性

317
00:13:51,828 --> 00:13:53,109
保持开放的思路

318
00:13:53,109 --> 00:13:55,509
哎这个这个是这个时候可以说一句了

319
00:13:55,509 --> 00:13:57,589
一切皆有可能嗯

320
00:13:57,989 --> 00:13:59,568
要注意哈横盘

321
00:13:59,568 --> 00:14:00,469
所谓一些些

322
00:14:00,469 --> 00:14:04,788
可能就是说涨和跌的概率在逐渐趋近于均衡哈

323
00:14:04,788 --> 00:14:06,690
都接近于50%

324
00:14:06,690 --> 00:14:09,159
而多头过强的那些趋势呢

325
00:14:09,159 --> 00:14:10,779
我们暂时还不踩顶啊

326
00:14:10,779 --> 00:14:12,080
可能还要继续看涨

327
00:14:12,080 --> 00:14:13,559
像这个多头不强啊

328
00:14:13,559 --> 00:14:14,580
要注意了

329
00:14:14,580 --> 00:14:15,799
之前这强来着

330
00:14:15,799 --> 00:14:16,740
但现在不强

331
00:14:16,740 --> 00:14:19,200
这就是一种重大的变化

332
00:14:19,200 --> 00:14:21,299
重要的变化哈

333
00:14:21,700 --> 00:14:23,299
特斯拉今天是上涨

334
00:14:23,299 --> 00:14:24,720
符合我们多头的预期哈

335
00:14:24,720 --> 00:14:25,620
没啥可说的

336
00:14:25,620 --> 00:14:27,179
这么大的阳线是吧

337
00:14:27,179 --> 00:14:29,269
也就是说也有一些下跌的图表吧

338
00:14:29,269 --> 00:14:30,990
下跌图表就震荡了

339
00:14:30,990 --> 00:14:33,029
刚才我们看到这个有一些回调

340
00:14:33,029 --> 00:14:34,789
你看亚马逊啊

341
00:14:34,789 --> 00:14:40,389
包括这个呃这个这个闪迪相关的哈

342
00:14:40,389 --> 00:14:41,490
闪迪还好啊

343
00:14:41,490 --> 00:14:42,490
没怎么使劲跌

344
00:14:42,490 --> 00:14:46,009
所以大家要近期要关注趋势线的破位情况是吧

345
00:14:46,009 --> 00:14:46,870
现在破了吗

346
00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:48,139
没有好

347
00:14:48,139 --> 00:14:49,719
这是今天的情况哈

348
00:14:49,719 --> 00:14:51,538
目前看起来没太大的问题呢

349
00:14:51,538 --> 00:14:55,009
还最后呢欢迎大家成为绿宝石会员哈

350
00:14:55,009 --> 00:14:56,690
去观看我们的视频哈

351
00:14:56,690 --> 00:14:57,950
会员视频好

352
00:14:57,950 --> 00:14:58,679
我们再见
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