瑞银-中金公司(3908.HK)：一季度强劲业绩彰显机构业务实力-260429

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大家好

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欢迎收听今天的深度解读

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今天咱们要聊点硬核的直接拆解

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瑞银最新发布的这份针对中金公司

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看到2026年的收益评估报告

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你可能好奇

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在现在这种变幻莫测的宏观大环境下

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这家业内巨头到底是怎么做到打破市场预期

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硬是交出了一份极其亮眼的答卷的

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今天咱们就来一层一层的把这份报告掰开

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揉碎了看看

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那么今天的路线图非常简单直接

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咱们从一季度的盈利大星级聊起

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接着看一看他们引以为傲的机构业务护城河

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然后再把各项收入来源拆解开来

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当然了

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最后咱们还会重点关注

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瑞银给出的估值与目标价

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以及绝对不能忽视的市场风险与展望

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好

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咱们直接切入正题

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第一部分

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一季度盈利惊喜

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一起来看看

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中金公司是怎么在通往2026年的路上

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强势破局的

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这个部分

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咱们必须从最核心最吸引眼球的头条数据说起

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76帕

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没错

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你没听错

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这是他们一季度经常性税后

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净利润的同比增长率

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虽然说这个数字比他们早前的初步预告

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稍微低了那么一点点

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但说实话

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他已经把同行业的大多数竞争对手

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远远甩在身后了

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为什么这么说呢

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你想想看

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今年一季度的A股市场其实是相当波动的

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当大多数同行还在这种震荡市里苦苦挣扎

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焦头烂额的时候

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中金不仅扛住了

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还实现了强韧的投资收益

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和高达54帕的整体收入飙升

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这反差实在太大了

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简直像个引人入胜的谜团对吧

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咱们接着往下解密

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那么来到第二部分

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机构业务优势到底是什么

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底盘驱动了他们如此强悍的抗风险能力

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关于这点

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瑞银在报告里的原话

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可以说是直接一语道破天机

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他们指出

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中金的优势就在于机构业务实力

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而且能在波动式中保持投资收益

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这背后反映的其实是

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他们死死咬住了一个核心战略

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那就是非方向性和以客户为驱动

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换句话说

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人家早就不靠单纯去赌大盘涨跌吃饭了

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而是把精力全放在了

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深耕机构客户的真实需求上

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根据这组非常直观的数据

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我们可以看到

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总投资收益不管是同比还是环比

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都足足飙升了23

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part肾

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这绝对是个实打实的证据

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证明了什么

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证明了主动降低对市场方向性敞口的依赖

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不仅行得通

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而且非常赚钱

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这转型可谓是相当成功了好了

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第三部分收入来源拆解

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也就是它们的核心引擎是

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咱们现在就掀开引擎盖

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看看这高达54个

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总营收增长到底是由哪些零部件驱动的

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仔细拆解各项业务

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你会发现这增长几乎是全面开花

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经纪业务暴增54帕

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资产管理也涨了29帕

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但你一眼就能看出

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这里头绝对的超级大黑马是谁

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投资银行

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净收入直接实现了2.8倍的极端暴增

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简直令人惊叹

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这么离谱的暴增肯定不是天上掉下来的

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原因很简单粗暴

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在第一季度

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中金以种碾压的姿态

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拿下了A股IPO和再融资项目

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23.9

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person的庞大市场份额

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足足比之前提高了16.8个百分点

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可以说是毫无悬念地

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坐稳了投行业务的霸主地位

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当然光靠投行一条腿走路是不够的

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这份业绩表精彩就精彩

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在其他兄弟部门也在高歌猛进

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在全市场理财产品强劲发行的东风下

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不仅经济和资管业务大幅拉升

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中金基金的管理规模

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也就是AOM更是一鼓作气

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扩大到了2730亿元人民币的庞大体量

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真是应了那句话

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大象也能跳舞

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第四部分

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估值与目标价

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有了这么漂亮的基本面称优

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瑞琴怎么看他的未来呢

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对比历史股价走势与瑞银的目标预测

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大家对他目前的估值水位和未来的想象空间

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应该就非常心里有数了

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综合所有这些数据

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瑞银最终给出的态度非常坚决

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维持对中军公司的买入评级

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并且给出了一个12个月的目标价

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27.50港元

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在瑞影看来

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目前中军的股价仅仅对应

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2026年预期市净率的0.8倍

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0.8倍啊

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朋友们

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这在他们眼里

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价值显然是严重被低估了

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可以说是性价比极高

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顺便给大家提个醒

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瑞银得出这个目标价用的是DDM估值法

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也就是股息贴现模型

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简单来说

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他就是把未来预期能拿到的股息

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折算成今天的现值来评估这家公司的内在价值

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一种非常经典且严谨的算法

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终于到了第五部分

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市场风险与展望

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也就是前锋的道路分析

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再怎么乐观

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咱们也不能只挑好听的

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说

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潜在的雷区

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咱们也得扫视一遍

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瑞银也是很负责任的

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直接列出了一系列核心风险

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毕竟是券商嘛

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大家懂得

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整体收入依然高度依赖大盘脸色

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市场交易量

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投资者情绪的波动

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甚至是行情的上下颠簸

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导致账面价值缩水

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这些依然是挥之不去的潜在风险

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宏观的不确定性

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谁也能够拍胸脯说完全免疫

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不过呢就短期来看

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报告里还是释放了一丝暖意

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尤其是进入二季度以来

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随着地缘政治紧张局势稍微缓和了那么一点

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整个市场情绪其实是有了明显改善的

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这也给券商板块提供了一个不错的短期支撑

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那么就这引出了一个

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非常值得咱们仔细琢磨的问题了

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基于一季度这份傲视群雄的成绩单

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大家觉得中金公司这种向非方向性机构

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客户驱动的成功转型

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会不会已经悄悄写下了一本全新的生存指南

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这会不会成为未来所有券商

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在动荡的亚洲市场里不仅能活下去

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还能活得更好的终极蓝图呢

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问题留给大家

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咱们下次深度解读再会

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