【Couch Investor】Meta跌回2022年了？

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嘿

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大家好，欢迎回到今天的又一个视频

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在今天的视频中

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我们需要看看这个美好的周一早晨市场给了我们什么

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我们将讨论这个模糊的元宇宙协议

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然后我们将讨论一家特定公司

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一家价格如此低廉的股票，我们可以称之为2022年的元宇宙

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或者现在甚至可能是2025年的谷歌会议

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当你查看热力图

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美好的周一早晨或下午

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无论你在何处，整体都是美丽的绿色

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如果你是色盲的话

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对你来说可能看起来一样

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但整体都是绿色

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我们喜欢看到微芯上涨5%

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英特固近5%涨幅

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英伟达上涨2%

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Meta上涨3%

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当然，关于可能或可能不会裁员20%的传闻

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也许这也归功于元宇宙

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我们关注的各大科技公司整体都是绿色

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如果你看看金融科技板块

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大多数也呈现绿色

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只有Dave

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Adan和Klarna呈红色，Neo Clouds和Nebues

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今日上涨13.2%

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Iris上涨6.5%

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其余今日周一也上涨

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究竟发生了什么

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我到底在说哪家公司呢

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我在说Meta

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是的

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Meta就是2022年的元宇宙

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现在我们将讨论这家公司

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我们将讨论该公司的市场情绪

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我将展示估值模型

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看多和基准案例

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你将看到价格目标的差异

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当然，我们还要讨论Meta与Nebulous的协议

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如果你喜欢这类视频

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请点击所有按钮，非常感谢

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如果你进一步支持我

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请查看描述下方和评论区的链接

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十大最佳股票

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现在

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我将转到full.com

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斜杠

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Goinvestor

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非常感谢

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目前Meta上涨3.2%

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我们可以看到，现在我们可以看到二零二二年发生了什么

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我知道

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我知道要说这像元宇宙一样

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二零二二年可能有点老套或陈旧

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好的

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我明白了

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因为当时

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正如你所见

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元宇宙当时下跌了百分之七十

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但自从触底以来

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现在已经上涨超过百分之五百

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过去十二个月到现在

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仅上涨了百分之四点七

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年至今仅上涨百分之二点七

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这是一家公司

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如果你仔细看这里

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这家公司价值一点

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五万亿美元

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利润率相当不错

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当然利润率尤其是自由现金流利润率因巨额资本支出而下降

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十二个月滚动

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市盈率二

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六点

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前向市盈率一倍

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前向市盈率一点二零三倍

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是的

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市销率当然现在极高

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关于这次资本支出计划

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我们将讨论不同情景

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以及发布的报告

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等等

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但在开始之前

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让我们尝试理解为何元宇宙受挫

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要理解这一点

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当然你可以访问财政网

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AI

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描述下方有链接

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并查看评论

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可享十五折优惠

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新用户可免费使用财政Pro两周

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现在有了神奇的网格视图

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你可以将所有所需利润率并排展示

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这里上下排列

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所以我们现在有什么

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这些是过去十二个月数据

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能更清晰看到趋势和轨迹

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营业利润率百分之四十一

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四过去十二个月

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仍然非常优秀

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再次提醒二零二二年低点

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这是过去十二个月

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所以你看这里

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三月二〇二三年

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达到了百分之二十三点五

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我们现在离自由现金流利润率目标还差很远

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接近百分之二三点

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底部是百分之十五

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一

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现在毛利率为百分之九

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回升至百分之八十二

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然后

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接近百分之七十八

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继续看这里

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净利润率现在达到百分之三十

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但你会发现这只是由于一次性影响

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我相信是在两到三个季度前

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即使这样我们仍远未达到几年前的百分之十八点二

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同样情况

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A da利润率百分之五十三点七

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最低点为百分之三十一点二

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这里可以看到对净利润率的一次性影响

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两季度前影响了百分之五点二

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这就是过去十二个月的影响

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最后一个季度

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我们有百分之三十八

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六月季度现在达到百分之三十八点五

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当我们看一些定价指标

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所以前向市盈率、市销率和市现率

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以及后向市盈率

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我们可以看到底部右侧的以下情况

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这类似于Meta 2022年

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但Meta 2022年

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如你所见前向市盈率接近十二点五倍

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当时的市销率也非常低

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但随后

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你可以看到市盈率大幅上涨

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达到三十五倍

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因为同样地

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这是市销率

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它抵消了负面影响

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前向市盈率采用未来数据

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在此情况下呈现正面影响

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但当时为十二点七倍

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而我们现在仍处于

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接近二十一点

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还有其他变化吗

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市销率

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现在仍为两倍，市销率六倍

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当时也有优势

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因为资本支出故事

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巨大的资本支出故事并非始于2021年

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2022年

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自由现金流价格也非常合理

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今天接近九倍

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当然按交易基础是三倍

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前瞻市盈率三点六倍要高得多

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因为资本支出

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这就是问题所在

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现在

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我们看到的都是Meta的所有投资

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或者说由Meta进行的投资

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投资回报率会是多少

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这些开支能创造多少价值

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从巨额资本支出增长中

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他们能产生多少自由现金流

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未来能创造多少利润

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在DCF模型中你会看到

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你会发现大部分价值不来自前两三年

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不

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而是来自之后的所有时间

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因为你会看到企业自由现金流将

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或预计在未来几年为负

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如果我们实际查看2026年自由现金流

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预计会触及低点

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这里低点为十点

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七亿美元

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仍是十点

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七亿美元自由现金流

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之后预计会逐步恢复

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我们知道2026年资本支出预计几乎翻倍

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像亚马逊等公司

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现在预计2026年自由现金流为零甚至负值

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以Meta为例

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我们已听到几则传闻和报告称

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他们计划大规模裁员

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AI成本可能影响公司20%以上

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尽管Meta发言人称这是对理论方案的推测报道

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好吧还需观察

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这将如何发展

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我们也听说

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这是黄油LLM延期事件

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下一代模型从三月推迟至

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至少五月因为未能达到谷歌Gemini 3.0和编码基准

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它超越自家Llama 4并胜过Gemini 2.5

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但未达前沿水平

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好吧

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我们将看看后续发展

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当然他们正在疯狂花钱

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但如果无法推出顶尖模型会怎样

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也许确实

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或许采用Gemini的许可模式会是更好的选择

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如果这种情况发生的话，那确实如此

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当然我们会说资本支出可能会略有下降

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自由现金流将比最初预期更快复苏

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至于下一步

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如何才能更盈利呢？或许自研芯片

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他们宣布推出四款新MA芯片

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300、400、4

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50和500

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他们计划每半年推出新一代芯片

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现在

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MTI 300芯片已投入使用

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400芯片今年将随全液冷机架系统交付

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当然最大的受益者将是博通

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现在

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这再次

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 bulls的反驳论点会是

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是的

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也许他们会不惜重金采购英伟达芯片

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但若几年后能用自研芯片平衡成本

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利润率将显著改善

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因此投资回报率对公司将更优

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这完全有可能

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但目前Meta公司仍在疯狂投入基础设施建设

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建设数据中心

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GPU设备

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目前他们的AI模型绝对不是最优的

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尽管他们宣称Meta AI拥有十亿月活用户

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可能大多数人只是误用了这项服务

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因为它是搜索功能的一部分

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好的

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但现阶段

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我还未遇到认为这是好产品的用户

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加速采用的关键在于

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当然持续的AI硬件成功

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Meta智能眼镜

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00:09:17,009 --> 00:09:18,149
智能眼镜产品

238
00:09:18,149 --> 00:09:18,749
如果这样

239
00:09:18,749 --> 00:09:20,759
当然会获得更多关注

240
00:09:20,759 --> 00:09:24,279
目前它已取得极其成功

241
00:09:24,279 --> 00:09:28,220
当然现实实验室仍是烧钱机器

242
00:09:28,220 --> 00:09:32,580
但若这些硬件产品走向主流

243
00:09:32,580 --> 00:09:34,600
并由Meta AI驱动

244
00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:35,059
那么是的

245
00:09:35,059 --> 00:09:35,860
我认为

246
00:09:35,860 --> 00:09:42,639
最终会看到更广泛的Meta AI模型采用

247
00:09:42,639 --> 00:09:44,820
在分析DCF之前

248
00:09:44,820 --> 00:09:47,240
请记住2025年末

249
00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:47,799
我们曾经历过

250
00:09:47,799 --> 00:09:51,629
当然，首先是 Nebu 与 Meta 之间的第一份协议

251
00:09:51,629 --> 00:09:54,318
一份价值三亿美元的协议

252
00:09:54,318 --> 00:09:57,938
我们知道这个数字可能大得多得多

253
00:09:57,938 --> 00:09:59,918
如果 Nebuus 有相应能力的话

254
00:09:59,918 --> 00:10:02,720
如果他们能提供更多资源的话

255
00:10:02,720 --> 00:10:05,700
我们最近也提到

256
00:10:05,700 --> 00:10:11,000
我相信下一份协议大概率仍是与 Meta 的合作

257
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:13,740
我们很快便得到了确认

258
00:10:13,740 --> 00:10:16,840
因为这正是今天早些时候发生的事情

259
00:10:16,840 --> 00:10:20,419
Nebu 与 Meta 签署新 AI 基础设施协议

260
00:10:20,419 --> 00:10:24,169
旨在加速 Nebu 核心业务在 AI 云领域的增长

261
00:10:24,169 --> 00:10:25,610
我已经看到有人说到

262
00:10:25,610 --> 00:10:25,809
哦

263
00:10:25,809 --> 00:10:27,909
但我不理解协议中的这部分内容

264
00:10:27,909 --> 00:10:29,779
这是什么 blah blah blah 呢

265
00:10:29,779 --> 00:10:30,379
只需仔细阅读

266
00:10:30,379 --> 00:10:32,360
这非常容易理解

267
00:10:32,360 --> 00:10:33,860
如果你还不明白的话

268
00:10:33,860 --> 00:10:37,580
这基本上是五年协议中的条款

269
00:10:37,580 --> 00:10:43,929
Nebuus 将在多个地点提供十二亿美元专用容量

270
00:10:43,929 --> 00:10:48,909
基于首批大规模部署 NVIDIA Vera Rubin 平台

271
00:10:48,909 --> 00:10:52,610
Nebu 将从 2027 年初开始交付该容量

272
00:10:52,610 --> 00:10:56,480
这也是为何 2026 年指引保持不变

273
00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:01,059
同时关联对这些 NVIDIA Vera Rubin 部署的访问

274
00:11:01,059 --> 00:11:07,789
Meta 承诺将在特定即将上线的 Nebu 集群购买额外可用算力

275
00:11:07,789 --> 00:11:08,950
总计最高

276
00:11:08,950 --> 00:11:09,570
所以再次说明

277
00:11:09,570 --> 00:11:15,240
总计五年内最高十五亿美元

278
00:11:15,240 --> 00:11:20,839
Nebu 目前计划将其容量出售给 AI 云业务第三方客户

279
00:11:20,839 --> 00:11:24,198
剩余容量由 Meta 购买

280
00:11:24,198 --> 00:11:24,519
所以是的

281
00:11:24,519 --> 00:11:27,090
当你看到头条中的大数字

282
00:11:27,090 --> 00:11:29,409
这里写的是二十七亿美元

283
00:11:29,409 --> 00:11:33,789
应该表述为最高二十七亿美元

284
00:11:33,789 --> 00:11:36,730
这回到 Nebu 之前所说的内容

285
00:11:36,730 --> 00:11:39,169
这也呼应了 Oracle 的说法

286
00:11:39,169 --> 00:11:40,490
预付款

287
00:11:40,490 --> 00:11:43,070
预付款能让这类公司

288
00:11:43,070 --> 00:11:45,490
大幅减少资金消耗

289
00:11:45,490 --> 00:11:46,690
因为你收到预付款

290
00:11:46,690 --> 00:11:50,330
今天就能将资金投入业务

291
00:11:50,330 --> 00:11:52,690
锁定大量资源

292
00:11:52,690 --> 00:11:56,629
通过客户资金进行大规模建设

293
00:11:56,629 --> 00:11:58,690
而非自身公司资金

294
00:11:58,690 --> 00:12:01,590
这对公司来说已消耗大量资金

295
00:12:01,590 --> 00:12:05,070
我们看到 Nebu 又达成巨额交易

296
00:12:05,070 --> 00:12:08,350
这再次印证了我们的观点

297
00:12:08,350 --> 00:12:11,700
Nebu 领先行业

298
00:12:12,019 --> 00:12:13,580
正如 Arcade 所言

299
00:12:13,580 --> 00:12:19,320
我们将继续推进 Meta 的 DCF 估值分析

300
00:12:19,320 --> 00:12:20,340
一个牛市情景

301
00:12:20,340 --> 00:12:22,419
基准情景和熊市情景

302
00:12:22,419 --> 00:12:24,240
如果你只需要概览

303
00:12:24,240 --> 00:12:25,820
这就是核心内容

304
00:12:25,820 --> 00:12:28,678
或者结论可能还要更好一些

305
00:12:28,678 --> 00:12:30,099
所以我先从结论开始

306
00:12:30,099 --> 00:12:32,599
然后我会详细解释整个故事

307
00:12:32,599 --> 00:12:35,078
我们采用概率加权评估

308
00:12:35,078 --> 00:12:38,289
在牛市情景中设定5%概率

309
00:12:38,289 --> 00:12:43,370
基准情景50%概率，熊市情景5%概率

310
00:12:43,370 --> 00:12:47,049
计算得出约844.74美元

311
00:12:47,049 --> 00:12:48,250
74.74美元

312
00:12:48,250 --> 00:12:49,830
接近当前价格的

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00:12:49,830 --> 00:12:52,090
当前价格有3.4%的上涨空间

314
00:12:52,090 --> 00:12:53,090
我们现在所处的位置

315
00:12:53,090 --> 00:12:56,529
从概率加权的涨跌来看

316
00:12:56,529 --> 00:13:00,580
那么这些数字是如何得出的呢

317
00:13:00,580 --> 00:13:02,940
牛市情景当然是最乐观的

318
00:13:02,940 --> 00:13:05,360
你不必认同这些数据

319
00:13:05,360 --> 00:13:09,190
我仍在想办法分享所有Excel表格

320
00:13:09,190 --> 00:13:11,210
你可以自行调整这些数字

321
00:13:11,210 --> 00:13:13,090
我们看看如何实现

322
00:13:13,090 --> 00:13:14,690
没有Patreon之类的平台

323
00:13:14,690 --> 00:13:16,750
如果你收到沙发投资者

324
00:13:21,379 --> 00:13:22,529
这不是我本人

325
00:13:22,529 --> 00:13:23,850
关于牛市情景

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00:13:23,850 --> 00:13:25,629
这里显示105.3点

327
00:13:25,629 --> 00:13:27,820
当前价格有3.3%的上涨空间

328
00:13:27,820 --> 00:13:29,710
我们现在所处的位置

329
00:13:29,710 --> 00:13:32,710
收入增长率相对简单

330
00:13:32,710 --> 00:13:33,950
前几年的阶段

331
00:13:33,950 --> 00:13:38,799
我比华尔街更乐观一些

332
00:13:38,799 --> 00:13:39,480
是的

333
00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,230
增长率逐渐放缓

334
00:13:42,230 --> 00:13:46,350
但最终达到7.3%的水平

335
00:13:46,350 --> 00:13:49,929
终端增长率定为3.5%

336
00:13:49,929 --> 00:13:51,269
关于利润率

337
00:13:51,269 --> 00:13:52,710
这就是核心内容四

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00:13:52,710 --> 00:13:53,029
四

339
00:13:53,029 --> 00:13:53,389
四

340
00:13:53,389 --> 00:13:54,509
五个百分点

341
00:13:54,509 --> 00:13:56,389
这里的终端数值为四

342
00:13:56,389 --> 00:13:57,289
四个百分点

343
00:13:57,289 --> 00:13:59,429
税率14%

344
00:13:59,429 --> 00:14:00,889
在这里可以看到

345
00:14:00,889 --> 00:14:05,769
2026年企业自由现金流将为负

346
00:14:05,769 --> 00:14:07,369
最大的冲击点在此

347
00:14:07,369 --> 00:14:10,749
2027年已开始反弹

348
00:14:10,749 --> 00:14:11,009
这就是

349
00:14:11,009 --> 00:14:14,919
当然对模型的这一部分有巨大影响

350
00:14:14,919 --> 00:14:16,600
因为如果你看基准情景

351
00:14:16,600 --> 00:14:17,200
例如

352
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:18,049
这里也是如此

353
00:14:18,049 --> 00:14:18,929
收入增长

354
00:14:18,929 --> 00:14:19,710
这类情况

355
00:14:19,710 --> 00:14:21,129
我正在取前几年的数据

356
00:14:21,129 --> 00:14:22,889
基本上就是华尔街在做的事

357
00:14:22,889 --> 00:14:25,570
然后之后我们会略有下降

358
00:14:25,570 --> 00:14:29,309
每一年终端增长率三到四百分

359
00:14:29,309 --> 00:14:30,409
稍有利润率

360
00:14:30,409 --> 00:14:31,690
但在这里你可以看到

361
00:14:31,690 --> 00:14:33,409
如果我们转到企业自由现金流

362
00:14:33,409 --> 00:14:35,769
可以看到前两年这里

363
00:14:35,769 --> 00:14:37,409
将是负值

364
00:14:37,409 --> 00:14:41,789
直到2028年我们才会看到明显反弹

365
00:14:41,789 --> 00:14:46,230
这意味着我看到的 upside 是26%

366
00:14:46,230 --> 00:14:48,850
在基准情景下增长1%

367
00:14:48,850 --> 00:14:53,610
转向悲观情景同样持谨慎态度

368
00:14:53,610 --> 00:14:55,009
你不必突然抛售

369
00:14:55,009 --> 00:14:55,470
哦

370
00:14:55,470 --> 00:14:56,809
市场预期

371
00:14:56,809 --> 00:14:58,929
甚至公司预期增长24%

372
00:14:58,929 --> 00:15:00,929
但因为这是悲观情景

373
00:15:00,929 --> 00:15:02,929
我只做10%

374
00:15:02,929 --> 00:15:05,090
仍需保持现实

375
00:15:05,090 --> 00:15:09,879
这也是为什么你可以看到前几年的预期收入增长率

376
00:15:09,879 --> 00:15:10,740
仍然非常

377
00:15:10,740 --> 00:15:12,019
非常现实

378
00:15:12,019 --> 00:15:14,730
之后下降速度更快

379
00:15:14,730 --> 00:15:16,610
终端增长率是2%

380
00:15:16,610 --> 00:15:17,559
5%

381
00:15:17,559 --> 00:15:18,659
稍有利润率

382
00:15:18,659 --> 00:15:19,879
3.7%

383
00:15:19,879 --> 00:15:22,639
因此我们看到利润率有所恶化

384
00:15:22,639 --> 00:15:24,480
但这里同样可以看到

385
00:15:24,480 --> 00:15:28,389
首先资本支出将持续大幅增加

386
00:15:28,389 --> 00:15:32,649
可以看到企业自由现金流将为负

387
00:15:32,649 --> 00:15:35,500
直到2029年

388
00:15:35,500 --> 00:15:39,730
当然这对模型这一部分有巨大影响

389
00:15:39,730 --> 00:15:43,330
因为悲观情景及其他情景同样

390
00:15:43,330 --> 00:15:47,700
大部分价值来自后期阶段

391
00:15:47,700 --> 00:15:48,899
这意味着是的

392
00:15:48,899 --> 00:15:51,960
我们相信公司做事有章法

393
00:15:51,960 --> 00:15:53,340
我们相信公司会说不

394
00:15:53,340 --> 00:15:55,629
我们现在大量投资

395
00:15:55,629 --> 00:15:59,129
但我们认为投资回报率会很好

396
00:15:59,129 --> 00:16:01,070
这就是我们做这些假设的原因

397
00:16:01,070 --> 00:16:04,259
这就是我们得出这些数字的原因

398
00:16:04,259 --> 00:16:05,240
有了这些数字

399
00:16:05,240 --> 00:16:06,299
看空案例

400
00:16:06,299 --> 00:16:08,500
我们实际上可以看到二十一点二

401
00:16:08,500 --> 00:16:11,009
当前价格下方一个百分点的跌幅

402
00:16:11,009 --> 00:16:11,970
我们现在所处的位置

403
00:16:11,970 --> 00:16:15,139
我认为这是一个相当合理的区间

404
00:16:15,139 --> 00:16:16,799
或许还能稍微改善一点

405
00:16:16,799 --> 00:16:19,799
但至少这里显示出风险

406
00:16:19,799 --> 00:16:22,049
Meta的发展路线图

407
00:16:22,049 --> 00:16:25,110
如果他们未能正确实现盈利呢

408
00:16:25,110 --> 00:16:28,149
这里显示两点一点一百分比

409
00:16:28,149 --> 00:16:29,339
下行风险

410
00:16:29,339 --> 00:16:30,698
所以再次

411
00:16:30,698 --> 00:16:33,360
这就是我的结论

412
00:16:33,360 --> 00:16:34,559
关于Meta

413
00:16:34,559 --> 00:16:38,340
我仍然认为现在这是一个绝佳机会

414
00:16:38,340 --> 00:16:41,940
尤其是如果你想投资高盈利科技公司

415
00:16:41,940 --> 00:16:46,038
未来将产生数十亿美元自由现金流

416
00:16:46,038 --> 00:16:50,240
当这一轮大规模投资周期结束

417
00:16:50,480 --> 00:16:53,159
Meta可能是我们结束视频前的重点

418
00:16:53,159 --> 00:16:54,940
今日油价下跌四点八%

419
00:16:54,940 --> 00:16:55,980
今日下跌4.8%

420
00:16:55,980 --> 00:16:58,809
回落至接近94美元

421
00:16:58,809 --> 00:17:02,110
下周将召开FOMC会议

422
00:17:02,110 --> 00:17:04,109
当然不预期降息

423
00:17:04,109 --> 00:17:08,419
但市场会根据数据反应波动

424
00:17:08,419 --> 00:17:08,679
嗯

425
00:17:08,679 --> 00:17:09,459
杰罗姆·鲍威尔

426
00:17:09,459 --> 00:17:11,999
对经济形势的评论

427
00:17:11,999 --> 00:17:14,920
或他们观察到的数据

428
00:17:14,920 --> 00:17:17,859
现在我们从日线图看Meta

429
00:17:17,859 --> 00:17:21,339
仍处于均线附近的无险地带

430
00:17:21,339 --> 00:17:24,759
但可以观察到更高低点

431
00:17:24,759 --> 00:17:27,940
一度跌至约580美元

432
00:17:27,940 --> 00:17:31,009
另一低点稍高在约600美元

433
00:17:31,009 --> 00:17:33,309
现在甚至更高

434
00:17:33,309 --> 00:17:38,190
约610美元的图表显示

435
00:17:38,190 --> 00:17:40,950
评论区告诉我们你的看法

436
00:17:40,950 --> 00:17:43,349
今天的视频内容就到这里

437
00:17:43,349 --> 00:17:45,809
请告诉我对Meta当前价格的看法

438
00:17:45,809 --> 00:17:47,650
你对模糊新闻怎么看

439
00:17:47,650 --> 00:17:52,609
是否想看更多微软等公司的DCF分析

440
00:17:52,609 --> 00:17:53,569
英伟达

441
00:17:53,569 --> 00:17:54,309
这类公司

442
00:17:54,309 --> 00:17:56,109
在下方评论区告诉我

443
00:17:56,109 --> 00:17:58,089
别忘了访问Fiscal AI

444
00:17:58,089 --> 00:17:59,589
我们下次再见

445
00:17:59,589 --> 00:18:00,359
再见

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