【Value Investing with Sven Carlin, Ph.D】估值1.1万亿！伯克希尔现在是贵了还是便宜了？

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各位投资者朋友们，伯克希尔的报告不幸地来了

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这是格雷格的信，不是沃伦的信

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这就是生活的常态

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让我们进行分析

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深入财务数据

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十年后投资伯克希尔会怎样

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甚至更久

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伯克希尔始终是基于内在价值的买入

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这样才能看出如何匹配你的投资组合

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顺便说一下，供参考和背景

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我叫范·卡尔林

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我有一个价值投资研究计划平台

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我们寻找价值安全边际与安全性

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力求最小化风险

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然后追求一定收益

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但首先聚焦风险

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我刚在研究平台上更新了两个非常有趣的案例

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你可以通过下方描述中的链接查看

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立即开始解读格雷格的信

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在商业领域

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一切关乎业绩表现

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经营业务产生460亿美元净现金流

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440亿美元净利润，一切正常

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略低于去年

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相比2024年

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但运营数据依然亮眼

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必须理解环境相对温和

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保险业环境异常温和

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带来高额利润

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铁路业务表现尚可

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相当稳定

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但也揭示了伯克希尔的核心

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如今规模庞大

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以340亿美元股权价值收购

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40亿美元

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81亿美元净经营现金流和44亿美元股息，十三

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14%的初始投资收益率

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过去五年平均41亿美元

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收购后现金流在300-40亿美元区间波动

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现金流

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现金流

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现金流来自稳定长期业务

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在投资领域

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不仅是收购整家企业

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还包括股票投资

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大幅减持苹果

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坚守美国运通可口可乐

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穆迪

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但就格雷格的观点而言

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集中投资策略

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这些持仓中的活动有限

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尽管我们可能会大幅调整持仓

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如果看到其长期经济前景发生根本变化

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我制作了这个视频，下方描述中会放所有相关视频链接

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我曾提到沃伦·巴菲特买入十只股票

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然后他实际卖出其中九只

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他做了大量研究

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然后买入标的

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持有一段时间

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观察其是否具备相应能力

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像伯灵顿北方铁路那样持续带来丰厚现金流

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若不符合则卖出

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最近的抛售仍在持续苹果公司

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我们将在风险管理部分稍后讨论

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谈到日本企业

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买入支付稳定分红且分红增长的业务

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现在这些业务股息收益率达10%

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若以1%利率借贷

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就能获得10%收益

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这是绝佳套利

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这就是巴菲特日本投资的核心

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加上日元贬值因素

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泰德·沃尔管理6%份额

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共计3000亿日元

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股票组合约180亿

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他从托德处获得部分资金

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大概托德

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可能对未担任CEO等安排不满

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这可能是格雷格后续最重要的部分

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因为它讨论风险管理

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我们必须理解其中细节

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或许首先是

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第二和第三层思维

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在格雷格的处境中

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以及巴菲特和查理过去的做法

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在伯克希尔的情况

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在价值投资领域

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在任何长期投资中

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只关乎风险

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首要考虑风险

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然后才是其他因素

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这就是巴菲特六十年来构建的核心

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若无风险

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剩下的全是上涨空间

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堡垒式基本面

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堡垒式资产负债表

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持有3700亿现金

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但这只是冰山一角

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我们知道美股估值过高

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美国问题

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债务问题

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利率波动不定

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三百七十亿美元现金

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然后是我可能没理解到的事

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直到这个周末沃伦对西方石油的收购

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这不是能源行业中最便宜的

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它并不便宜

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如果你看价格

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他后来要为全部买单

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而现在我明白了

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这是国内业务

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这是安全的

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同时也是全球地缘政治问题的对冲

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现在油价飙升

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最大受益者将是西方石油国内生产商

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因为价格上涨

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而成本保持稳定

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所以再次

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一种思考方式

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如何进行对冲

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我持有现金

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我仍想保持投资

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但对冲不确定性

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即使之前贸易看似不顺

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现在我们看到反弹

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现在问题回到格雷格

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他能否施展影响力

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凭借我们看到的逻辑和布局

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多年后查理·芒格和沃伦·巴菲特曾

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这是关键问题

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信中原则部分肯定

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却缺失了沃伦和查理赋予的智慧

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或许最好听沃伦·巴菲特的经典语录

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1962年

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1984年采访

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如我所述链接见下

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我也附在此处

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这是理解他们思维的核心

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远超当今多数人

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极为非凡

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因此需要巨大努力

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让格雷格复制

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或期待相似成果

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达到查理和沃伦过去的成就

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但正如我们稍后讨论内在价值

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我认为可以期待稳定

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延续伯克希尔的原则

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或许未必

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无法复制查理创造的直觉与伟大

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芒格和沃伦·巴菲特

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但依然可以接受

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尤其是在规模层面

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同时这也取决于市场提供的机会类型

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我想未来几年我们会了解更多

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让我们进入财务部分

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如果我们看运营收益

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每当看到伯克希尔的运营收益

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这是税后数据

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所有内容均已包含

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这样就可以了

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这就是我们创造的

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我们看到保险承保业务稍显疲软

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这是可以预见的情况

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这些年非常出色

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但现在已开始减弱

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巴菲特也提到这是特殊年份

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他不指望从保险承保中获利

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只是将其视为现金流的潜在来源

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低

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廉价资金

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但并非核心盈利来源

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现在已持续两年良好表现

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但近期略有下滑

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我认为我们应

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或许保险业务平均盈利五亿美元

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因为保险承保可能出现二十亿美元亏损

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这正是保险投资业务的特性

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收益率因现金收益略有下降

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伯灵顿北方稳定

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伯克希尔能源、制造稳定

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其他则取决于对冲策略

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或其业务波动情况

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保险业务因此减少三亿美元

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投资收益因利率略有波动

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大概就是这样

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我认为伯克希尔

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适当调整保险因素后

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扣除相关费用后可产生四十亿美元长期现金流

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我们可以采用增长率进行估值

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用于未来评估

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四B是

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我觉得这样没问题

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当然

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在危机情况下

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类似情形时

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三百七十亿美元现金应被部署

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这也将提升伯克希尔的整体盈利能力

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同时需注意现金管理

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这也是保险业务借出的资金

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因此他们这里约有两百五十亿的保险负债

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这类事情

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这是需要记住的要点

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说到伯克希尔

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不仅仅是现金作为现金

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这些现金可以按需使用

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但这些负债很可能由未来业务运营支付

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关键点在于

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伯克希尔股权价值七百一十七亿

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当观察市值时

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一点零

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九万亿

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显著高于账面价值

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这将促使伯克希尔大量回购股票

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一点二倍账面价值

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如今在估值方面

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存在多种方法可评估伯克希尔的股票内在价值

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拆分部分估值

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回购效应

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质量因素

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巴菲特效应已消失

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这是我们都可以讨论的内容

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让我们从内在价值开始

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转到我们的对比表格

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教育性内在价值计算

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可在下方描述中的链接下载

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在我的免费价值投资课程中

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这里展示的是伯克希尔

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我采用伯克希尔的市值数据

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并输入到内在价值表中

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重点关注这部分

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因为总会有各种情景

232
00:10:51,139 --> 00:10:54,179
但假设伯克希尔的价值创造

233
00:10:54,179 --> 00:10:56,789
净利润四十亿

234
00:10:56,789 --> 00:10:59,389
接下来是增长率

235
00:10:59,389 --> 00:11:05,490
我假设伯克希尔未来采用六%的增长率

236
00:11:05,490 --> 00:11:08,830
一切取决于未来的P比率

237
00:11:08,830 --> 00:11:11,710
因为如果以六%年增长率增长

238
00:11:11,710 --> 00:11:14,009
收益将从四十亿

239
00:11:14,009 --> 00:11:15,870
增长到七十亿

240
00:11:15,870 --> 00:11:17,330
十年后

241
00:11:17,330 --> 00:11:19,958
我认为这非常可能

242
00:11:19,958 --> 00:11:23,859
但估值仍取决于未来的评估

243
00:11:23,859 --> 00:11:26,470
伯克希尔未来应得的估值

244
00:11:26,470 --> 00:11:28,839
如果只是同行的15倍市盈率

245
00:11:28,839 --> 00:11:31,778
那么价值将达一万亿

246
00:11:31,778 --> 00:11:34,759
此时股票价格正好与当前持平

247
00:11:34,759 --> 00:11:38,269
若市盈率达25倍

248
00:11:38,269 --> 00:11:40,690
则价值为一点六万亿

249
00:11:40,690 --> 00:11:44,259
长期来看将获得良好回报

250
00:11:44,259 --> 00:11:46,740
年增长率约为百分之六

251
00:11:46,740 --> 00:11:48,980
这比国债的回报率更好

252
00:11:48,980 --> 00:11:50,919
能抵御通货膨胀

253
00:11:50,919 --> 00:11:54,320
这使得伯克希尔现在比美股更具投资价值

254
00:11:54,320 --> 00:11:56,000
未来国债可能下行

255
00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:56,820
例如

256
00:11:56,820 --> 00:11:59,600
但这取决于估值水平

257
00:11:59,600 --> 00:12:02,139
在最佳情况下

258
00:12:02,139 --> 00:12:04,578
伯克希尔将以更高倍数增长

259
00:12:04,578 --> 00:12:07,700
十年内可翻倍本金

260
00:12:07,700 --> 00:12:10,360
年化回报率达百分之七

261
00:12:10,360 --> 00:12:12,370
对于伯克希尔规模

262
00:12:12,370 --> 00:12:15,590
对冲一切风险将非常有趣

263
00:12:15,590 --> 00:12:17,350
无论市场如何变化

264
00:12:17,350 --> 00:12:19,899
我认为伯克希尔将实现这些收益

265
00:12:19,899 --> 00:12:21,440
因为若市场崩盘

266
00:12:21,440 --> 00:12:22,559
他们会进行收购

267
00:12:22,559 --> 00:12:24,049
随后收益增长

268
00:12:24,049 --> 00:12:25,690
若市场不崩盘

269
00:12:25,690 --> 00:12:28,889
将通过股息投资增长

270
00:12:28,889 --> 00:12:29,730
类似这样的操作

271
00:12:29,730 --> 00:12:32,190
这就是伯克希尔的特性

272
00:12:32,190 --> 00:12:38,250
因此始终需要审视其如何适配投资组合

273
00:12:38,250 --> 00:12:39,750
最坏情况

274
00:12:39,750 --> 00:12:43,149
终端增速仅十二倍

275
00:12:43,149 --> 00:12:46,870
股价将下跌七成

276
00:12:46,870 --> 00:12:49,460
但这已是极端情形

277
00:12:49,460 --> 00:12:53,980
需从不同角度审视

278
00:12:53,980 --> 00:12:55,419
若观察伯克希尔

279
00:12:55,419 --> 00:12:57,399
查看2020年五月

280
00:12:57,399 --> 00:12:59,440
2020年春季

281
00:12:59,440 --> 00:13:02,639
当时正处历史低位

282
00:13:02,639 --> 00:13:07,509
我曾制作视频称其为超值价格

283
00:13:07,509 --> 00:13:10,710
伯克希尔罕见出现此价位

284
00:13:10,710 --> 00:13:15,659
视频中提到市盈率二十倍

285
00:13:15,659 --> 00:13:19,039
未来几年或翻倍

286
00:13:19,039 --> 00:13:20,340
甚至未修正数据

287
00:13:20,340 --> 00:13:22,840
结果完全如预期

288
00:13:22,840 --> 00:13:27,350
但需历史验证估值

289
00:13:27,350 --> 00:13:30,809
过去在十至二十倍间波动

290
00:13:30,809 --> 00:13:32,599
受市场情绪影响

291
00:13:32,599 --> 00:13:34,578
忽略二十倍

292
00:13:34,578 --> 00:13:36,078
十八倍后

293
00:13:36,078 --> 00:13:40,279
新会计准则出台后

294
00:13:40,279 --> 00:13:43,340
包含股价波动因素

295
00:13:43,340 --> 00:13:45,639
现在分析拆分价值

296
00:13:45,639 --> 00:13:48,078
持有七十亿美元现金

297
00:13:48,078 --> 00:13:51,058
能源业务高运营利润

298
00:13:51,058 --> 00:13:53,818
伯灵顿北方高运营利润

299
00:13:53,818 --> 00:13:55,700
保险股业务

300
00:13:55,700 --> 00:13:56,500
其他

301
00:13:56,500 --> 00:14:00,149
所有这些也可以按各部分总和来估值

302
00:14:00,149 --> 00:14:02,350
如果我们去评估这种能源价值

303
00:14:02,350 --> 00:14:04,230
至少一百亿

304
00:14:04,230 --> 00:14:05,289
伯灵顿北方铁路

305
00:14:05,289 --> 00:14:06,970
再加一亿美元保险

306
00:14:06,970 --> 00:14:08,509
两百只股票

307
00:14:08,509 --> 00:14:10,690
三百其他企业

308
00:14:10,690 --> 00:14:11,840
两百

309
00:14:11,840 --> 00:14:14,759
总和将达到一点

310
00:14:14,759 --> 00:14:16,539
三千亿美元减去

311
00:14:16,539 --> 00:14:19,659
扣除两百五十亿美元保险负债

312
00:14:19,659 --> 00:14:23,000
然后就正好是当前市值

313
00:14:23,000 --> 00:14:24,519
这或许可以争论

314
00:14:24,519 --> 00:14:27,099
伯克希尔被合理估值

315
00:14:27,099 --> 00:14:28,950
这是市值

316
00:14:28,950 --> 00:14:33,450
分部总和显示我们已达此水平一切正常

317
00:14:33,450 --> 00:14:34,009
很可能

318
00:14:34,009 --> 00:14:34,850
良好回报

319
00:14:34,850 --> 00:14:36,190
未来

320
00:14:36,190 --> 00:14:37,690
高个位数

321
00:14:37,690 --> 00:14:40,970
希望我们还能采用安全边际策略

322
00:14:40,970 --> 00:14:42,370
什么是安全边际

323
00:14:42,370 --> 00:14:43,230
非常简单

324
00:14:43,230 --> 00:14:45,809
七百亿非股权回购

325
00:14:45,809 --> 00:14:47,149
从一点开始

326
00:14:47,149 --> 00:14:48,070
两点一点

327
00:14:48,070 --> 00:14:49,950
三倍账面价值

328
00:14:49,950 --> 00:14:55,279
这意味着伯克希尔从此无法跌破15%

329
00:14:55,279 --> 00:15:00,349
因为此时伯克希尔将启动回购

330
00:15:00,349 --> 00:15:05,469
从而为股价长期设下下限

331
00:15:05,469 --> 00:15:08,629
因此最大亏损15%

332
00:15:08,629 --> 00:15:12,090
我们讨论的年均上涨7.67%

333
00:15:12,090 --> 00:15:15,669
这是绝佳稳定局面

334
00:15:15,669 --> 00:15:18,570
我认为甚至优于瑞·达利欧

335
00:15:18,570 --> 00:15:22,720
分散配置全天候组合保护你

336
00:15:22,720 --> 00:15:24,159
如果你是万亿富翁

337
00:15:24,159 --> 00:15:26,440
投资数亿伯克希尔

338
00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:28,179
观察运营业务

339
00:15:28,179 --> 00:15:30,870
按15倍 earnings 估值

340
00:15:30,870 --> 00:15:33,190
即六百六十亿

341
00:15:33,190 --> 00:15:36,038
股票部分三百亿

342
00:15:36,038 --> 00:15:38,899
仍保持约一万亿

343
00:15:38,899 --> 00:15:43,828
我让gemini核查分部总和估值

344
00:15:43,828 --> 00:15:47,769
然后是现金股权组合

345
00:15:47,769 --> 00:15:48,690
扣除税费

346
00:15:48,690 --> 00:15:50,490
如同出售这些股票

347
00:15:50,490 --> 00:15:53,029
净资产价值六百二十六亿

348
00:15:53,029 --> 00:15:54,759
全部运营收益

349
00:15:54,759 --> 00:15:56,519
乘以12到15倍

350
00:15:56,519 --> 00:15:57,779
六千亿

351
00:15:57,779 --> 00:15:59,580
一点二万亿

352
00:15:59,580 --> 00:16:01,100
内在价值

353
00:16:01,100 --> 00:16:04,730
但这里也显示出AI的一些局限性

354
00:16:04,730 --> 00:16:06,299
我问了它

355
00:16:06,299 --> 00:16:10,779
以下运营利润部分来自现金净收益

356
00:16:10,779 --> 00:16:14,409
将这些包含在市盈率中会重复计算

357
00:16:14,409 --> 00:16:16,149
我以为你很聪明

358
00:16:16,149 --> 00:16:18,090
而我更聪明

359
00:16:18,090 --> 00:16:20,129
而且我百分之百正确

360
00:16:20,129 --> 00:16:22,029
谢谢你的奉承gemini

361
00:16:22,029 --> 00:16:24,610
但这稍微修正了问题

362
00:16:24,610 --> 00:16:27,639
估算价值为一点零

363
00:16:27,639 --> 00:16:28,899
自由万亿

364
00:16:28,899 --> 00:16:33,720
而这正是伯克希尔被合理估值的原因

365
00:16:33,720 --> 00:16:36,379
部分总结我的分项评估

366
00:16:36,379 --> 00:16:40,169
我认为现金股票运营三十亿

367
00:16:40,169 --> 00:16:41,049
当我扣除时

368
00:16:41,049 --> 00:16:45,029
来自国库的现金盾牌是四百五十亿

369
00:16:45,029 --> 00:16:50,529
运营业务总值一点一万亿经合理估值

370
00:16:50,529 --> 00:16:51,269
然而

371
00:16:51,269 --> 00:16:53,320
让我们做魔鬼代言人

372
00:16:53,320 --> 00:16:57,240
如果看苹果、美国运通和可口可乐

373
00:16:57,240 --> 00:16:58,480
这些股票

374
00:16:58,480 --> 00:17:00,820
苹果的市盈率为三十

375
00:17:00,820 --> 00:17:04,660
美国运通的市盈率为二十

376
00:17:04,660 --> 00:17:06,569
不算太高

377
00:17:06,569 --> 00:17:10,210
但看看这些业务已取得的成就

378
00:17:10,210 --> 00:17:12,490
可口可乐的纯比率是二六

379
00:17:12,490 --> 00:17:14,710
这些并非廉价价值股

380
00:17:14,710 --> 00:17:20,009
因此可能看不到大幅回报

381
00:17:20,009 --> 00:17:22,939
除了这些业务的少量分红

382
00:17:22,939 --> 00:17:24,999
我们有四十亿运营

383
00:17:24,999 --> 00:17:25,778
多元化

384
00:17:25,778 --> 00:17:26,979
低增长业务

385
00:17:26,979 --> 00:17:28,519
稳定业务

386
00:17:28,519 --> 00:17:32,259
如果深入评估部分

387
00:17:32,259 --> 00:17:32,929
在那里

388
00:17:32,929 --> 00:17:35,068
保守估值现金

389
00:17:35,068 --> 00:17:37,689
税后股票二百亿

390
00:17:37,689 --> 00:17:41,970
并略微高估十二倍运营收益

391
00:17:43,369 --> 00:17:44,609
减去债务

392
00:17:44,609 --> 00:17:46,509
我们处于股权层面

393
00:17:46,509 --> 00:17:48,869
正好七百亿

394
00:17:48,869 --> 00:17:52,079
这就是安全边际计算

395
00:17:52,079 --> 00:17:53,559
最坏情况

396
00:17:53,559 --> 00:17:55,480
股价下跌百分之四十

397
00:17:55,480 --> 00:17:56,259
如果发生

398
00:17:56,259 --> 00:17:57,079
你买入更多

399
00:17:57,079 --> 00:17:58,279
格雷格会继续买入更多

400
00:17:58,279 --> 00:18:00,460
现在你已获得长期保护

401
00:18:00,460 --> 00:18:02,799
伯克希尔的投资类型是什么

402
00:18:02,799 --> 00:18:04,259
伯克希尔始终是优质投资

403
00:18:04,259 --> 00:18:06,059
但我们必须自问

404
00:18:06,059 --> 00:18:07,180
伯克希尔未来会如何

405
00:18:07,180 --> 00:18:08,559
十年后会处于什么位置

406
00:18:08,559 --> 00:18:10,039
六个百分点的增长

407
00:18:10,039 --> 00:18:12,559
很难达到更高水平

408
00:18:12,559 --> 00:18:14,579
衰退期存在风险

409
00:18:14,579 --> 00:18:16,220
七十亿美元利润

410
00:18:16,220 --> 00:18:17,640
正如我们之前讨论

411
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:19,700
市盈率在十到二十之间

412
00:18:19,700 --> 00:18:24,200
随后市值将突破万亿

413
00:18:24,200 --> 00:18:26,380
从七百亿增长到一点

414
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:32,869
回报率不高且经理会质疑

415
00:18:32,869 --> 00:18:37,288
这也是为何他们不疯狂回购股票

416
00:18:37,288 --> 00:18:40,940
现在买入伯克希尔的机会成本是什么

417
00:18:40,940 --> 00:18:42,299
如果你买入伯克希尔

418
00:18:42,299 --> 00:18:47,449
每年大概率获得中高个位数回报

419
00:18:47,449 --> 00:18:50,449
但长期机会成本如何

420
00:18:50,449 --> 00:18:51,749
这是一项优质业务

421
00:18:51,749 --> 00:18:53,710
你的替代选择是什么

422
00:18:53,710 --> 00:18:55,470
这才是关键问题

423
00:18:55,470 --> 00:18:58,549
在是否持有伯克希尔时

424
00:18:58,549 --> 00:19:00,049
你有更好的选择吗

425
00:19:00,049 --> 00:19:02,670
如果你有更好的选择

426
00:19:02,670 --> 00:19:03,039
现在

427
00:19:03,039 --> 00:19:05,140
六个百分点低风险

428
00:19:05,140 --> 00:19:07,500
或三十个百分点最大回撤

429
00:19:07,500 --> 00:19:09,559
这就是核心答案

430
00:19:09,559 --> 00:19:11,519
所以谈到伯克希尔

431
00:19:11,519 --> 00:19:12,839
我认为它是明灯

432
00:19:12,839 --> 00:19:14,319
你需要持续关注它

433
00:19:14,319 --> 00:19:17,759
将其与投资组合中的其他资产对比

434
00:19:17,759 --> 00:19:19,460
如果你持有萨普五百

435
00:19:19,460 --> 00:19:21,440
这些押注AI的疯狂公司

436
00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:21,720
人工智能

437
00:19:21,720 --> 00:19:25,940
我认为伯克希尔更适合长期安全

438
00:19:25,940 --> 00:19:27,859
安全复利增长

439
00:19:27,859 --> 00:19:32,079
即使在这些疯狂价位

440
00:19:32,079 --> 00:19:34,339
个位数回报

441
00:19:34,339 --> 00:19:36,339
根本无法推动增长

442
00:19:36,339 --> 00:19:40,779
我日夜工作寻找更好的投资

443
00:19:40,779 --> 00:19:41,400
这

444
00:19:41,400 --> 00:19:44,140
甚至可能比伯克希尔风险更低

445
00:19:44,140 --> 00:19:47,388
持有三百七十亿现金

446
00:19:47,388 --> 00:19:51,108
这也意味着资产贬值损失

447
00:19:51,108 --> 00:19:54,209
我们将观察伯克希尔未来演变

448
00:19:54,209 --> 00:19:56,059
我们一定会继续关注

449
00:19:56,059 --> 00:19:56,980
感谢观看

450
00:19:56,980 --> 00:20:00,319
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