【NaNa说美股】20260604空费半吓出屎来！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说美股

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周四

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由于博通财报后大跌

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半导体呢集体回吐

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但是场内资金并没有集体撤退哈

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而是轮动抛去了周期股和防御性板块

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那边狂拉

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抵消了半导体的回调

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嗯到了下半场

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一些资金又跑回科技股抄底

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因此美股大盘呢整体并没有受到太大的影响

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三大股指收势表现不一

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道指大幅收涨1.73%

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纳指收盘的时候

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较盘出的疲软态势有了显著的改善

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指微幅收跌0.09%

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标普500收涨0.41%

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此前资金极度抱团

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半导体存储啦

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光通信啊

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AI服务器等等

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个个都涨得惊天动地的

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其他大多数板块呢都只能做冷板凳

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眼巴巴的瞧着今天部分资金从半导体流出之后

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跑去那些落后的板块

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反而让美股整体市场的宽度改善了

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今天上涨的股票数量要远多于下跌的数量

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因此呢这是一个板块轮动的日子哈

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并不是集体出逃的日子

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投资者仍继续保持逢低买入的习惯

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半导体的极端抱团行情啊出现了一些裂缝嗯

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市场对它的痛点呢在两处

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一是公司Q3

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AI半导体收入指引160亿美元

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不及预期的170亿美元

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本财年AI芯片销售额指引560亿美元

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也低于预期均值的576亿美元

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二呢是陈老板在电话会议上承认

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博通最重要的大客户

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谷歌正在推进供应商多元化

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以降低对单一芯片巨头的依赖

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联发科

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迈威尔科技可能都在摩拳擦掌的想要分走蛋糕

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市场担忧博通在谷歌TPU项目中市场份额流失

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最最主要的原因其实并非财报本身啦

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而是博通的股价连续大涨之后呢

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市场对博通的预期已经拉到极高

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若是业绩只略高于一致预期

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都有可能触发获利了结

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更何况嗯AI相关的收入指引还低于预期呢

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其实并不是说

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市场在质疑普通的AI业务是否增长

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而是在重新定价

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就是将此前过于乐观

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过于激进的一些高预期呢往回拉一些

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同时也给股价挤挤泡沫

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消化估值压力

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所以这又是一场教科书级别的买预期

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卖事时

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就和英伟达财报后的股价表现同一个尿性

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股价目前呢处于所有短期均线下方

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回到了此前这个横盘整理区间下方

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50日均线是中期关键支撑哈

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除非趋势彻底走坏

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否则的话呢

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股价就可能在50日均线上方横盘震荡

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消化抛压

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跌的最凶的不是博通

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反而是光通信概念股CIEN

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股价今天早盘的时候呃

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跌超20%

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盘中甚至一度跌穿了50日均线

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这是自去年7月以来首次跌破这条中期均线哈

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不过呢盘中好歹拉上去了

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公司也是刚刚发布了财报

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Q2营收15.7亿美元

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同比增长了40%

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调整后每股收益1.64美元

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同比激增290%

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而且公司还上调了全年营收指引嗯

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财报大好

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但是股价照样下跌

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因为与博通一样

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就是业绩虽然很好

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可是呢预期拉太高太满了嗯

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但是CIEN跌这么多

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好歹还可以理解的哈

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毕竟它股价过去12个月翻了六七倍呀

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前几天黄仁勋带货催那个官通信

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还有迈威尔科技

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所以呢就让这些股票在财报前又大涨了一下

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故意拉高财报后获利了结也算是正常嗯

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公司季度营收才15.7亿美元

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它的市值都快达到千亿美元了

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只看营收增速40%

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数据其实也没有多么让人惊艳

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你看像英伟达那么大的体量呢

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人家营收增速都超过它

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就等于把未来56年的成长空间都给price in了

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泡沫太大了

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说白了

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华尔街就是找个借口来兑现部分利润而已

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博通跌了之后

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英伟达这边开心死

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股价今天反弹

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果然同行是冤家嗯

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今天几个旧巨头其实也是护盘的主力了

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存储龙头美光科技股价呢也从历史高位回落

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KD破轮5日均线

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如今存储是AI热潮的风向标

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供应极其紧缺

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下游的需求巨大

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行业涨价潮更是汹涌

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这些基本面因素都没有改变哈

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所以就算它的股价短线回调也跌不了太多

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能不能回踩月均线的布衣店

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盲目看空风险很大哈

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耐心等待回调后

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这个逢低做多的机会仍然是最合适的

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暂时在英伟达

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台积电等几位老大哥们的护盘之下呢

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拉起来了

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尾盘跌幅收窄到2.15%啊

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真的太硬了哈

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这个硬件板块的获利盘和高估值风险

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如今很高了

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但是呢AI硬件叙事只有在几个科技巨头

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比如像meta微软之类的超级大差释放

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缩减或者放缓AI资本支出的信号

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行情才会真正结束

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但是在entropick OpenAI这俩成功IPO上市之前

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科技巨头们是不可能率先收手的啦

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因为这背后是极其现实的切身利益捆绑啊

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作为这两家公司的核心金主与战略盟友

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这个时候巨头若宣布放缓资本支出

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戳破AI泡沫

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那就等同于在上市前夕掀翻自己的财富桌子嘛

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所以即使这个比如小梅塔实在是撑不住

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要放缓资本支出

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那也得等到年底

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换句话说哈

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在unsopk OpenAI他俩上市之前

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大家其实不用太担心AI泡沫破裂这个事情

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美债呢今天获得了买盘支撑

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推动10年期盘收益率回落

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尽管伊朗导弹和无人机

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昨天攻击了美军基地和科威特机场

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真主党今天还拒绝了美国斡旋的以礼停火协议

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但是川普仍对伊朗问题释放了耐心信号

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就暗示不愿重新卷入更广泛的战争

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除非伊朗杀害美军士兵

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否则的话就不会重启战火

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川普呢拒绝了伊朗最新提出的谅解备忘录草案

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坚持要求更实质性的让步

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同时又表示不急于达成协议

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这个市场将川普的表态解读为

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就是有意维持当下这种极限施压策略

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通过战略模糊和这个引体引导和这个媒体引导

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来迫使伊朗降低地区冲突

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同时呢继续实施经济封锁

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目前美国政府哈

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似乎在接受有限协议与继续施压之间

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保持最大的灵活性

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既不承诺外交解决哈

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也没有转向新一轮冲突

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呃

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所以大家就觉得川普一会说这个话

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一会说那个话反反复复的

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其实这都是他的策略呃

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这也导致10年期美债收益率

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在4.5%关口附近犹豫不决

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不知道这个该往哪边走

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WTI原油期货今天应声回落

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昨天美国国会投票限制了川普的战争权利

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生产的立即就将此解读为诶

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美伊冲突全面升级的风险解除了

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哈总统不能够呃掀起大战争了

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导致原有积累的战争风险溢价再次快速消退

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实际上

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美国国会这一场投票象征意义要远大于实质

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因为川普本人的核心策略就不是

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打一场代价高昂的全面这个地面战争

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这一点一旦也早就看出来了

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大家都看出来了

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双方现在边打边谈

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都是为了在谈判桌上捞取更多筹码而进行的

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极限施压

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筹码要够

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那戏就得演足

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无论是伊朗还是川普都是一样

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摩根塔通也在最新的研报中乐观地宣称

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全球石油库存消耗的加速

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将会最终迫使呃霍尔木兹海峡重新开放

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无论以什么方式

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并且呢预计海峡可能会在6月内

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就这个月恢复通航

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他这话说的就好像伊朗革命卫队是小摩的编外

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小弟会听从华尔街的库存报告指挥一样

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哈标普500指数今天低开后并没有引发恐慌

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盘中反而一路上行

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转涨被拉回到7600点这里的磁铁位置

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昨天视频里我们说过

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哈市场当下正干巴环境

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这个限制了指数大幅下跌的空间呃

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做市商的逆向对冲机制

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充当了这个市场的减震器

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这种磁铁效应呢

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在6月18号期权集中结算到来之前

210
00:10:19,120 --> 00:10:20,679
会持续有效

211
00:10:20,679 --> 00:10:23,840
要等6月18号才会松绑

212
00:10:23,840 --> 00:10:26,019
放开这个市场的波动

213
00:10:28,779 --> 00:10:31,620
但是随后就获得了强劲买盘的支撑

214
00:10:31,620 --> 00:10:33,009
并且一度转涨

215
00:10:33,009 --> 00:10:36,529
指数的反弹具有极强的技术必然性哈

216
00:10:36,529 --> 00:10:38,250
今天开盘下砸呢

217
00:10:38,250 --> 00:10:42,960
就刚好打到核心波段生命线这条月均线附近

218
00:10:42,960 --> 00:10:48,490
作为本轮AI与大科技强扭的多头信仰底线

219
00:10:48,490 --> 00:10:51,190
技术买盘与量化算法呢

220
00:10:51,190 --> 00:10:54,599
在这个地方就形成了极强的共振支撑

221
00:10:54,599 --> 00:10:57,558
只要月线这里不放量被跌破

222
00:10:57,558 --> 00:11:01,059
那么科技股的强趋势逻辑就没有证伪

223
00:11:01,059 --> 00:11:03,720
多头就不会轻易交出筹码

224
00:11:03,720 --> 00:11:07,340
作为市场风险情绪最最敏感的温度

225
00:11:07,340 --> 00:11:10,440
计效盘古1TFAWM今天表现亮眼

226
00:11:10,440 --> 00:11:14,629
涨幅就仅次于传统的反手大户倒置

227
00:11:14,629 --> 00:11:17,269
一举收复了昨天的全部失地

228
00:11:17,269 --> 00:11:19,610
IWM的满血复活

229
00:11:19,610 --> 00:11:21,269
也释放了一个重要信号

230
00:11:21,269 --> 00:11:24,980
就是场内资金并没有恐慌出逃这个市场

231
00:11:24,980 --> 00:11:28,210
而是继续留在场内进行板块轮动

232
00:11:28,210 --> 00:11:32,710
当大科技和AI硬件因为前期涨幅过大

233
00:11:32,710 --> 00:11:38,089
流动性被SPACEX上市预期抽血而陷入疲软的时候

234
00:11:38,089 --> 00:11:41,448
避险和套现资金立刻流入

235
00:11:41,448 --> 00:11:44,809
估值更有性价比的小盘股和价值股

236
00:11:44,809 --> 00:11:48,159
这种产内下这个反转嗯

237
00:11:48,159 --> 00:11:52,480
腾挪的格局呢就表明了市场的健康度尚可哈

238
00:11:52,480 --> 00:11:55,509
并没有触发这个系统性风险

239
00:11:55,509 --> 00:11:57,870
普通的这个财报大跌

240
00:11:57,870 --> 00:12:01,740
并没有戳破这个AI的这个泡沫呃

241
00:12:01,740 --> 00:12:02,539
波动率指数

242
00:12:02,539 --> 00:12:06,159
VIX呢继续在十五十六的历史低位区间

243
00:12:06,159 --> 00:12:07,460
懒散的运行

244
00:12:07,460 --> 00:12:10,240
对冲需求并没有出现井喷哈

245
00:12:10,240 --> 00:12:12,559
此时的瓶颈呢并不意味着

246
00:12:12,559 --> 00:12:14,879
说真的就可以高枕无忧啦

247
00:12:14,879 --> 00:12:18,549
只是现在扣动扳机的节点还没有到

248
00:12:18,549 --> 00:12:20,230
因为资金都在等

249
00:12:20,230 --> 00:12:21,210
这个月中

250
00:12:21,210 --> 00:12:23,639
就是6月18号前后哈

251
00:12:23,639 --> 00:12:27,139
宏观催化剂以及流动性拐点

252
00:12:27,139 --> 00:12:29,620
比如这个月中旬的呃

253
00:12:29,620 --> 00:12:30,940
美联储会议

254
00:12:30,940 --> 00:12:32,980
在接下来的一两周内

255
00:12:32,980 --> 00:12:36,740
市场大概率呢将会维持这种大盘震荡

256
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:45,159
好吓人啊

257
00:12:45,159 --> 00:12:47,240
不知道得有多少个杠杆

258
00:12:47,240 --> 00:12:48,980
多头仓位爆仓了

259
00:12:48,980 --> 00:12:52,519
根据预测市场平台cash最新数据

260
00:12:52,519 --> 00:12:55,259
对于比特币今年跌破6万美元的压注

261
00:12:55,259 --> 00:12:56,889
高达84%

262
00:12:56,889 --> 00:13:00,269
跌破5万美元的押注也有59%

263
00:13:00,269 --> 00:13:04,730
对比特币在未来数月重返10万美元的信心呢

264
00:13:04,730 --> 00:13:06,379
也明显下降了

265
00:13:06,379 --> 00:13:10,259
高企数据显示压住的概率就只有23%

266
00:13:10,259 --> 00:13:13,460
远低于5月初接近50%的水平

267
00:13:13,460 --> 00:13:16,360
全球最大的公开比特币持有者

268
00:13:16,360 --> 00:13:19,299
就是那个MSTR的老板MICHAELC罗

269
00:13:19,299 --> 00:13:23,169
他说导致币圈走熊的罪魁祸首就是AI

270
00:13:23,169 --> 00:13:27,269
因为呢高风险资金全都被AI给吸走了

271
00:13:27,269 --> 00:13:33,169
他称过去六个月有4000亿美元涌向AI基础设施

272
00:13:33,169 --> 00:13:35,649
而自今年5月14号以来

273
00:13:35,649 --> 00:13:39,509
比特币ETF呢则录得约40亿美元的净流出

274
00:13:39,509 --> 00:13:42,190
C罗就把币圈熊市解释为

275
00:13:42,190 --> 00:13:45,750
一场从比特币轮动到AI的资金迁途

276
00:13:45,750 --> 00:13:49,049
而并非比特币基本面恶化

277
00:13:49,049 --> 00:13:52,789
呃他说就是这个AI的叙事更宏大

278
00:13:52,789 --> 00:13:55,029
更能够承诺超额收益

279
00:13:55,029 --> 00:13:58,850
所以才暂时占据了流动性的上风

280
00:13:58,850 --> 00:14:00,470
但与此同时哈

281
00:14:00,929 --> 00:14:05,779
很多比特币相关企业也在主动加入这场AI盛宴

282
00:14:05,779 --> 00:14:10,299
像比特币矿奇TARWOLFCPFIREN等等

283
00:14:10,299 --> 00:14:13,850
他们全都摇身一变成为AI的电力房东

284
00:14:13,850 --> 00:14:16,610
他们手里的电力与场地资源

285
00:14:16,610 --> 00:14:19,590
被视为AI基础设施的一部分

286
00:14:19,590 --> 00:14:21,639
关键的问题在于哈

287
00:14:21,639 --> 00:14:24,899
呃这个究竟是比特币的没落呢

288
00:14:24,899 --> 00:14:29,629
还是仅仅一次典型的周期性偏好切换而已

289
00:14:29,629 --> 00:14:31,309
C罗给出的答案是后者

290
00:14:31,309 --> 00:14:32,230
他坚持认为

291
00:14:32,230 --> 00:14:35,370
比特币本身并没有出现根本性的问题

292
00:14:35,370 --> 00:14:39,570
只是被短期的AI狂热给边缘化了而已

293
00:14:39,570 --> 00:14:40,850
等风口回来之后

294
00:14:40,850 --> 00:14:43,629
比特币还可以再次重启牛市

295
00:14:43,629 --> 00:14:44,309
当然了

296
00:14:44,309 --> 00:14:45,389
站在他的立场

297
00:14:45,389 --> 00:14:46,649
他肯定会这么说嘛

298
00:14:46,649 --> 00:14:49,210
总不能说加密货币彻底玩完了

299
00:14:49,210 --> 00:14:51,669
然后就让自己公司破产对吧

300
00:14:51,669 --> 00:14:53,009
其他个股方面

301
00:14:53,009 --> 00:14:55,870
医疗保险股也是今天护盘的主力

302
00:14:55,870 --> 00:14:59,019
哈哈姆纳股价今天呢大涨了6.8%

303
00:14:59,019 --> 00:15:01,340
从3月谷底以来已经翻倍了

304
00:15:01,340 --> 00:15:03,980
周K正来到重要阻力

305
00:15:03,980 --> 00:15:05,620
200周均线附近

306
00:15:05,620 --> 00:15:07,500
能不能够成功突破

307
00:15:07,500 --> 00:15:08,690
并且站稳

308
00:15:08,690 --> 00:15:12,440
这是股价中短期趋势的关键

309
00:15:12,440 --> 00:15:14,120
突破之后站稳了

310
00:15:14,120 --> 00:15:17,000
那就意味着中期趋势重新转多

311
00:15:17,000 --> 00:15:19,639
若是掉头再次回落哈

312
00:15:19,639 --> 00:15:22,809
那这一轮涨势可能就暂时见顶了

313
00:15:22,809 --> 00:15:23,730
联合健康

314
00:15:23,730 --> 00:15:26,250
因为内去股价今天也涨了5.16%

315
00:15:26,250 --> 00:15:30,659
周线级别呢也逐渐接近上方重要阻力位了

316
00:15:30,659 --> 00:15:34,100
沃尔玛通常会在市场动荡的时候上涨

317
00:15:37,059 --> 00:15:39,629
沃尔玛的股价就蹭蹭蹭涨了2.5%

318
00:15:39,629 --> 00:15:42,750
但是呢随着风险情绪改善

319
00:15:42,750 --> 00:15:45,110
资金又跑回去抄底科技股

320
00:15:45,110 --> 00:15:47,080
沃尔玛的股价也随之回落

321
00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,879
持有这只股票就是要耐心啦

322
00:15:49,879 --> 00:15:54,389
防御股嘛就要等这个市场动荡的时候才会涨

323
00:15:54,389 --> 00:15:58,568
买它就好像是给科技股仓位做对冲哈

324
00:15:58,568 --> 00:16:00,009
芯片设计公司arm

325
00:16:00,009 --> 00:16:03,188
如今是美股市场中最贵的股票之一

326
00:16:03,188 --> 00:16:06,870
就仅次于嗯特斯拉和PLUNTEER

327
00:16:06,870 --> 00:16:08,889
自2023年IPO以来

328
00:16:08,889 --> 00:16:12,289
arm其实就一直都是一支相对昂贵的股票哈

329
00:16:12,289 --> 00:16:15,570
但是过去几周对股价的疯狂飙升呢

330
00:16:15,570 --> 00:16:16,730
几乎让它翻倍

331
00:16:16,730 --> 00:16:19,289
把估值也给推升到了行见的高位

332
00:16:19,289 --> 00:16:20,529
今年年初以来

333
00:16:20,529 --> 00:16:23,200
股价已经累计涨了260%

334
00:16:23,200 --> 00:16:28,059
推动因素是市场看好它首次自研芯片的计划

335
00:16:28,059 --> 00:16:30,220
在标普500指数成分股中

336
00:16:30,220 --> 00:16:32,929
他的表现就仅差于两家公司

337
00:16:32,929 --> 00:16:36,809
即使是在表现最强劲的废半指数成分股中

338
00:16:36,809 --> 00:16:38,429
arm也是位列第二

339
00:16:38,429 --> 00:16:40,789
公司的基本面非常的强劲

340
00:16:40,789 --> 00:16:44,149
但是当前它的估值是一项关键风险

341
00:16:44,149 --> 00:16:46,129
因为现在这个股价位置

342
00:16:46,129 --> 00:16:50,568
相当于就是把2030年的前景都给算进去了

343
00:16:53,089 --> 00:16:55,168
拖累了更广泛的AI交易

344
00:16:58,669 --> 00:17:03,009
但随即就跟随着整个半导体板块回升了哈

345
00:17:03,009 --> 00:17:05,859
尾盘的跌幅收窄到4.47%

346
00:17:05,859 --> 00:17:09,859
网络安全股COSTRIKE股价日内也是低开高走

347
00:17:09,859 --> 00:17:14,068
从下跌10%收窄到跌3.8%

348
00:17:14,068 --> 00:17:16,808
公司CEO在财报电话会议上表示

349
00:17:16,808 --> 00:17:19,549
受人工智能技术迭代推动

350
00:17:19,549 --> 00:17:22,730
网络攻防两端同步提速

351
00:17:22,730 --> 00:17:26,490
本季度网络安全行业正式迎来了行业拐点

352
00:17:26,490 --> 00:17:30,648
他提到恩聪pk与OpenAI推出的新一代大模型呢

353
00:17:30,648 --> 00:17:35,849
能够以远快于以往的速度识别各类软件漏洞

354
00:17:35,849 --> 00:17:39,029
并且串联利用AI技术高速迭代

355
00:17:39,029 --> 00:17:41,750
就倒逼这些企业们的配置

356
00:17:41,750 --> 00:17:44,490
专业化网络安全防护方案

357
00:17:44,490 --> 00:17:49,049
COSK已经参与上述两家企业最新AI产品的呃

358
00:17:49,049 --> 00:17:50,980
抢先试用项目了

359
00:17:50,980 --> 00:17:54,240
金融股在等待周五非农数据的同时

360
00:17:54,240 --> 00:17:58,069
对利率上行环境表现出了一些明显的犹豫

361
00:17:58,069 --> 00:17:59,990
SOFI股价近日回落后

362
00:17:59,990 --> 00:18:02,839
暂时在50日均线附近企稳

363
00:18:02,839 --> 00:18:05,880
罗宾who的还是继续看好哈公司

364
00:18:05,880 --> 00:18:09,500
宣布他的预测市场已经上线世界杯交易咯

365
00:18:09,500 --> 00:18:13,470
股价今天呃早盘的时候回落到10日均线后

366
00:18:13,470 --> 00:18:15,000
就强势反弹

367
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:17,279
暂时处于5日均线下方

368
00:18:17,279 --> 00:18:18,240
但是问题不大

369
00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,630
逢低买入仍是最好的策略哈

370
00:18:20,630 --> 00:18:23,450
量子计算新股QNT

371
00:18:23,450 --> 00:18:25,579
今天呢IPO首日呃

372
00:18:25,579 --> 00:18:27,740
股价收涨0.63%

373
00:18:27,740 --> 00:18:29,180
别看这个涨幅不大

374
00:18:29,180 --> 00:18:32,430
但是公司在IPO之前一再的提高定价

375
00:18:32,430 --> 00:18:35,789
而且今天呢呃科技股也有点小动荡

376
00:18:35,789 --> 00:18:39,339
所以它的股价能够不收跌就已经算是成功了

377
00:18:39,339 --> 00:18:42,259
瑜伽裤大佬lu lemon盘后公布财报

378
00:18:42,259 --> 00:18:46,019
北美业务几乎没有出现任何改善迹象

379
00:18:46,019 --> 00:18:49,359
而且公司还下调了全年营收与利润预期

380
00:18:49,359 --> 00:18:51,750
所以导致股价盘后暴跌

381
00:18:51,750 --> 00:18:54,950
嗯这种股票基本上没什么值得看的了

382
00:18:54,950 --> 00:18:56,460
像这种鞋类啦

383
00:18:56,460 --> 00:18:58,240
服装衣库类的哈

384
00:18:58,240 --> 00:19:01,000
在川普这个关税政策之下

385
00:19:01,000 --> 00:19:03,159
没有他们的出头之日行

386
00:19:03,159 --> 00:19:04,778
今天我们就说到这里

387
00:19:04,778 --> 00:19:07,630
那明天周五有非农报告哈

388
00:19:07,630 --> 00:19:10,109
嗯估计也不会有什么大意外

389
00:19:10,109 --> 00:19:11,980
那行咱们明天见拜拜

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