通货膨胀时间学会资产配置

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一年的投资难度比任何一年都要大得多

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今年呢如果想着舒服的赚钱呢

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必须要学会巴菲特的整体配置逻辑

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大家看巴菲特的持仓有什么特点啊

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那第一大仓位呢就是苹果

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然后接下来呢就是美国运通啊

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可口可乐啊

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西方石油啊

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雪弗龙啊啊当然还有点谷歌了

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包括消费里面的他游泳池趴啊

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哎呀移动的消费哈

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我卡巴衡社

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那剩下的呢就是3800亿的现金

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所以现金里边的大部分都是保险的普神金啊

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那什么概念呢

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也是巴菲特

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他现在是把这个他的所有的资产呢

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就分成三大块啊

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第一大块呢就是投资二级市场的公司哈

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第二块呢就自由的现金流的业务啊

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你要学着糖果啊

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还有一些没上市的伯克希尔新能源啊

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然后剩下的就是他的保险啊

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也是没上市的

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盖个保险

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所以他的整个逻辑是什么呢

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就通过高分红

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然后均线逆流

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然后抄底那些被误差的公司

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他的逻辑基本上是这样的

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他为什么这么多现金

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他不去轻易的去买呢

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他等待一个更极端的机会啊

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这个机会已经逐步的显现了

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你可以看一下

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就今年美股的走势其实是很差的

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他是250多买的谷歌啊

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现在谷歌一直在300块钱左右徘徊啊

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310海马的联合电康

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联合健康呢现在一直在280多徘徊啊

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所以说巴菲特他今年的整个策略呢

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就是等待被屠杀

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所以你通过拉菲队的实操

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你能感受到一个什么样的特点呢

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就是一个在投资市场啊

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称霸70年的一个股神呢

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他是极具耐心的

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他非常的有耐心的去等着再次被戳伤各位

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所以对普通人来讲呢

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赚钱最好的方式是什么呢

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就等待耐心的等待

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其实今年很多人呐把这个去年的钱都亏完了

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实际上怎么原因是什么呢

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就是他在投的时候过于相信趋势

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过于相信情绪

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过于相信啊

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你只要是抄啊这种高增长的股票

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总是能够逮到一波的

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实际上这种理念一定是错的

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为什么呢

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这个行业可能很好

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但是如果他去年已经是翻了好几倍

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那么它未来的几年很有可能持续下跌

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因为任何公司啊

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无论是像去年的有色啊

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还是今年的内燃机啊

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还是啊高压电缆变压器

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还是啊所有的这些所谓的趋势性的

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他的生意可能会很好啊

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包括这些脱困出海

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但是问题在于说它再好

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如果短期已经翻了这么多倍的话

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他用多少钱来消化它的涨幅

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第二个呢

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一旦他的业绩成了名牌

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面临第二个问题的时候

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他回归到一个正常估值

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就像当年的白酒对吧

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茅台每年增长呀

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连年增长了十几年

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20年

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但问题是现在就稳定在20倍左右的PE1了

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像茅台这种绝对的现金流好的公司啊

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他能不能5年不展

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更何况那些高负债啊

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然后靠概念

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然后靠趋势的这些公司呢

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那这些公式一旦进入成熟期啊

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就和苹果店一样的

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你看多少年不等了是吧

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连续很多年基本上都是横盘的

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甚至还有下滑

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这个呢是大家一定要明白的啊

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投资这个事呢非常非常难对

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就是一个巴菲特的配置逻辑

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因为你但凡能在A股做到年化10%以上

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连续10年以上

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你就属于股市级别的

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因为最近这几年呢哈我们的GDP呢

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其实大家都懂的啊

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其实是不到五啊

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即使不到五呢

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这个里面还有多少水分啊

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我们不知道

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但是实际上以我们身边的人的状态来看

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实际上这几年都在缩水的

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有想吧资产大幅缩水啊

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然后呢这个各行各业啊都是在下滑啊

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特别是那养猪的啊

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我这两天一直看到那些养猪的在

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在那个痛苦的啊

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大哀嚎

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五块钱一斤

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对我记得我们小时候猪肉价格20年

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30年前比现在都贵啊

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我记得30年前可能也十几块钱一斤吧

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现在都五块钱生猪啊

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我都觉得很可怕

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粮食多少钱呀

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就说你现在你养猪的话

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你就是不算人工成本

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你都是要卖一头亏一头

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养一头亏一头

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各位什么概念

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就现在惨到这个程度

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但是呢工业化标准化呢

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把这个行业的养殖量呢快速的增长了

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像墓园啊

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温室啊

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太恐怖了

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就他扩产能力太强

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但是我们的人口是下滑的是吧

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我们的需求下滑的

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所以这就是核心问题

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我昨天讲了一个空挡的概念啊

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这空挡是什么逻辑呢

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就是一小部分有钱人人他的需求依然在哪

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跟美国一模一样

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你看过去的数年哈

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你看我们住的小区

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我们小区在2000年初的时候

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这个房价多少钱呢

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大概在100万美金左右

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现在呢大概就是600万美金左右

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这是少年嘛

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这是从01年到26年哈

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25年大概就是翻了六倍

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但是六倍是怎么涨的呢

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实际上他经常有5年不涨

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大家比如说我们小区的房价

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我房东如果在2018年啊

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他的房子是150万

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从18年的现在翻了翻到四倍

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比如说前20年就翻了一倍

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实际上美国最近这5年

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他的所有的资产增长的原因呢

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就是因为货币套房了

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大批量印水

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大批量放水

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然后呢房价涨

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它只是一个通货膨胀带来的结果

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实际上这个房子你说他内在价值提升了多少

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没有它没有产生现金流

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但是接盘的人像我们20年来买房的人呢

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都花了高价格

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那有时比201年花了四倍的价格

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买了这里的房子

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也可以叫输入型的通胀

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其实我们现在国内接下来也是这个问题

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就是有钱人瞄准的区域

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有钱人瞄准的产品品牌

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有钱人投资领域还会涨

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但是呢普通人都会收水

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美国过去的这5年哈

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这种工薪阶层没有这种优质资产

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优质股票的

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或者说没有买科技股

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买了消费哈

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买的那些受通道影响比较大的公司都是腰斩的

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一样的房子也没涨啊

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尔湾的房子也没涨

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像那些哈不好的区域的

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不好的公司

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像那些餐饮

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低端的餐饮都跌90%

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每股过去的45年

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90%的公司都是腰斩的

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只有10%不到的公司大涨了

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而且呢这放水的十几万亿呢都到了纳德七姐妹

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就是美股哈前十名的科技公司巨头的各位

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你们发现没有

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整个大盘在涨

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中国也是经济还在增长

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但是是寥寥几个公司在涨

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就是最近这两三年A股涨的好的

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就是第一个呢出海啊

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是用业绩带动

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那第二个呢就是科技政策推动啊

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政策硬砸好

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第三个呢啊还有一部分是垄断国企

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央企啊

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能源和上游的垄断原材料

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也是因为啊强行通胀带来的这个价格的提升

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所以你就知道了这种这种人为控制的通胀呢

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他的结果就是利润只到了少数的人手里面

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所以你在做A股的话

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你要明白这个逻辑

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就是通胀肯定是会发生的

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因为只有西施债务才能够解决

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债务永远不会转移

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所以你要瞄准哪一些钱能流入的地方

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哪一些哈是能够看得见未来新闻标增长的地方

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是哪一些

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像美国一样哈

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哪些是优质的

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无论是公司

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无论是资产的地方

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所以呢我中间我还讲了一个关于创业的逻辑

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就是当这个你的用户反馈的时候

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你的公司不可能变差的

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各位各位大家想一想

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是不是

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比如说哈我做了很多产品啊

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瞄准那些中产阶级的肯定不行了

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对不对

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你看我做的小天台

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00:08:11,408 --> 00:08:14,728
小天下电子手表出生率下弯腰斩对吧

228
00:08:14,728 --> 00:08:15,968
那这个肯定肯定完蛋了

229
00:08:15,968 --> 00:08:18,168
那第二个呢瞄准中产的还有什么

230
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大家想一想对吧

231
00:08:19,649 --> 00:08:22,430
你但凡是那些比如说过去的时候啊

232
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介于中间的哈

233
00:08:23,329 --> 00:08:25,029
比如说都白搭了

234
00:08:25,029 --> 00:08:26,310
这中间进行阶级的哈

235
00:08:26,310 --> 00:08:28,250
你无论是啊男装女装

236
00:08:28,250 --> 00:08:29,589
我们简单的含泪一次

237
00:08:29,589 --> 00:08:32,110
这些但凡是中产的哎

238
00:08:32,110 --> 00:08:35,110
然后基本上都沦落贫贫困线以下吧

239
00:08:35,110 --> 00:08:37,908
其实这些人的需求肯定没了

240
00:08:37,908 --> 00:08:38,909
所以你就知道了

241
00:08:38,909 --> 00:08:40,529
你要做哪些人的生意

242
00:08:40,529 --> 00:08:42,389
要不就很穷的啊

243
00:08:42,389 --> 00:08:43,309
做刚需啊

244
00:08:43,309 --> 00:08:44,389
馒头得吃啊

245
00:08:44,389 --> 00:08:45,789
米面得吃啊

246
00:08:45,789 --> 00:08:49,169
然后呢这个啊最最快餐得吃啊

247
00:08:49,169 --> 00:08:50,330
最低端的有饭吃

248
00:08:50,330 --> 00:08:51,450
但是辛苦啊

249
00:08:51,450 --> 00:08:52,279
赚不了什么钱

250
00:08:52,279 --> 00:08:53,120
高端的哈

251
00:08:53,120 --> 00:08:55,279
茅台有钱人还该喝的喝啊

252
00:08:55,279 --> 00:08:56,379
顶尖的房产哈

253
00:08:56,379 --> 00:08:57,519
该买的买是吧

254
00:08:57,519 --> 00:08:59,000
正值的东西黄金哈

255
00:08:59,000 --> 00:08:59,799
在存内存

256
00:08:59,799 --> 00:09:01,960
所以你只有瞄准这种顶尖的哈

257
00:09:01,960 --> 00:09:04,279
比特币也是一个刚需哈

258
00:09:04,279 --> 00:09:06,159
特别是战战争以来啊

259
00:09:06,159 --> 00:09:07,639
比如说啊伊朗啊

260
00:09:07,639 --> 00:09:10,779
在阿根廷啊有东西拉呀

261
00:09:10,779 --> 00:09:14,019
这个地方呢它的这个货币吸收量很大啊

262
00:09:14,019 --> 00:09:16,059
通胀很厉害的地方是这个数字货币啊

263
00:09:16,059 --> 00:09:16,740
稳定是稳定币啊

264
00:09:16,740 --> 00:09:17,399
还是之类的

265
00:09:17,399 --> 00:09:18,799
它的交易量会越来越活跃

266
00:09:18,799 --> 00:09:21,480
因为大家呢唯一的一个增值保值的方法

267
00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:23,200
就是这些那黄金他们买不着嘛

268
00:09:23,200 --> 00:09:24,759
所以这就是给大家分享

269
00:09:24,759 --> 00:09:27,110
就说你能够明白这个逻辑呢

270
00:09:27,110 --> 00:09:30,309
你知道在这个啊混乱的年代

271
00:09:30,309 --> 00:09:33,429
哪些资产是能够让你保值的

272
00:09:33,429 --> 00:09:35,720
你先别提增值还让你保值的

273
00:09:35,720 --> 00:09:37,779
它使得随着这种被动性的输入呢

274
00:09:37,779 --> 00:09:40,200
通胀呢你就能跟着水涨船高哈

275
00:09:40,200 --> 00:09:41,519
你不要做进攻型的

276
00:09:41,519 --> 00:09:42,840
进攻型必死啊

277
00:09:42,840 --> 00:09:44,600
就像过去的45年啊

278
00:09:44,600 --> 00:09:46,379
为什么我的日子还不错的原因

279
00:09:46,379 --> 00:09:47,659
所以我从19年之后

280
00:09:47,659 --> 00:09:48,659
我我就给公司讲

281
00:09:48,659 --> 00:09:49,519
一个人不能招

282
00:09:49,519 --> 00:09:51,139
我们公司从三四百个人啊

283
00:09:51,139 --> 00:09:52,509
调到现在三四十个人

284
00:09:52,509 --> 00:09:53,429
各位三四十人

285
00:09:53,429 --> 00:09:53,970
我就嫌多

286
00:09:53,970 --> 00:09:54,710
我想要公示

287
00:09:54,710 --> 00:09:56,529
只留10~15个人就够了

288
00:09:56,529 --> 00:09:58,669
但是呢你现在都是10年以上老员工

289
00:09:58,669 --> 00:09:59,629
我不可能再说了

290
00:09:59,629 --> 00:10:00,830
所以我给他讲的意思是什么

291
00:10:00,830 --> 00:10:04,309
就是我从19年我就发现我们的能力啊

292
00:10:04,309 --> 00:10:06,149
无法支撑公司增长的时候

293
00:10:06,149 --> 00:10:07,330
我们选择了躺平

294
00:10:07,330 --> 00:10:08,929
但我们没有选择放弃啊

295
00:10:08,929 --> 00:10:10,149
选择了躺平啊

296
00:10:10,149 --> 00:10:11,418
不待定考核啊

297
00:10:11,418 --> 00:10:12,578
不带链接要求哈

298
00:10:12,578 --> 00:10:14,619
不再去加加加班加点啊

299
00:10:14,619 --> 00:10:15,578
不再去试差价格

300
00:10:15,578 --> 00:10:17,339
不再去做任何的啊

301
00:10:17,339 --> 00:10:19,549
有损利润的东西啊

302
00:10:19,549 --> 00:10:20,809
我们就熬可称

303
00:10:20,809 --> 00:10:21,529
然后呢

304
00:10:21,529 --> 00:10:23,090
老板那边经历能用来干嘛呢

305
00:10:23,090 --> 00:10:25,350
就做自己一个人能干完的事

306
00:10:25,350 --> 00:10:27,159
就是一个人投资IP

307
00:10:27,159 --> 00:10:28,820
就完全是一个人形成闭环

308
00:10:28,820 --> 00:10:30,059
为什么这么做呢

309
00:10:30,059 --> 00:10:30,779
大家去想啊

310
00:10:30,779 --> 00:10:31,620
我以前的视频也讲过

311
00:10:31,620 --> 00:10:34,870
我说在这种通缩的时代

312
00:10:34,870 --> 00:10:39,169
其实呢除了带来的悲观丧气恐慌

313
00:10:39,169 --> 00:10:40,889
不会带来任何积极的东西

314
00:10:40,889 --> 00:10:41,789
就大家也要明白

315
00:10:41,789 --> 00:10:43,070
通缩比通胀更可怕

316
00:10:43,070 --> 00:10:44,889
在于说它会消灭人的信心

317
00:10:44,889 --> 00:10:48,320
所以你看这两年年轻人基本上十几岁的人是吧

318
00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:50,039
完全没有生机活力哈

319
00:10:50,039 --> 00:10:51,529
然后你看身边那些啊

320
00:10:51,529 --> 00:10:52,330
我的创业者

321
00:10:52,330 --> 00:10:53,529
投资人都是实习生

322
00:10:53,529 --> 00:10:55,450
才完全没有这种是吧

323
00:10:55,450 --> 00:10:56,610
春节有活力的啊

324
00:10:56,610 --> 00:10:57,370
中学生小学生

325
00:10:57,370 --> 00:10:58,879
初中生也是实习分财啊

326
00:10:58,879 --> 00:11:02,779
完全没那种应该有的这种啊这种这种活泼天真

327
00:11:02,779 --> 00:11:04,679
所以这就是突出带来的后果

328
00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:07,409
所以你要明白这种东西呢还会持续的

329
00:11:07,409 --> 00:11:09,809
所以你要做的是什么呢

330
00:11:09,809 --> 00:11:11,269
不要去改变任何东西

331
00:11:11,269 --> 00:11:12,529
远离哈

332
00:11:12,529 --> 00:11:14,190
然后做一个人的闭环

333
00:11:14,190 --> 00:11:17,350
然后呢有精力的时候呢就帮助别人哈

334
00:11:17,350 --> 00:11:20,000
没有能力没有精力的就还是躺着就行了

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