BV1tbADzjEV9 · 浑水摸鱼清源1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:00,480 大家早上好 2 00:00:00,480 --> 00:00:02,160 各位投资者这里的评论很精彩 3 00:00:02,160 --> 00:00:05,299 在问现在亚马逊该不该买入 4 00:00:05,299 --> 00:00:08,659 作为来自德雷克的杰出价值投资者 5 00:00:08,659 --> 00:00:08,978 米勒 6 00:00:08,978 --> 00:00:09,659 克拉曼 7 00:00:09,659 --> 00:00:15,949 埃克曼都曾布局并大幅建仓亚马逊 8 00:00:15,949 --> 00:00:19,929 让我们讨论现状并得出惊人结论 9 00:00:19,929 --> 00:00:22,429 我会买入亚马逊吗 10 00:00:28,260 --> 00:00:31,120 如果我们观察公司过去一年表现 11 00:00:31,120 --> 00:00:32,979 股价毫无起色 12 00:00:32,979 --> 00:00:34,350 仅上涨1% 13 00:00:34,350 --> 00:00:36,710 但亚马逊持续增长 14 00:00:36,710 --> 00:00:38,810 持续投入资本建设 15 00:00:38,810 --> 00:00:44,338 如今越来越多投资者涌入长期亚马逊投资逻辑 16 00:00:44,338 --> 00:00:51,250 而短期投资者却抛售AI资本支出风险 17 00:00:51,250 --> 00:00:54,210 上次我们讨论买入亚马逊 18 00:00:54,210 --> 00:00:56,210 已是几年前的事 19 00:00:56,210 --> 00:00:58,070 当时股价在90美元 20 00:00:58,070 --> 00:01:00,929 我曾说存在两倍上涨潜力 21 00:01:00,929 --> 00:01:02,859 40%下行风险 22 00:01:02,859 --> 00:01:04,439 正如后来发生的一样 23 00:01:04,439 --> 00:01:07,750 目前我们已略超两倍涨幅（仅作参考） 24 00:01:07,750 --> 00:01:09,209 我是范·哈伦 25 00:01:09,209 --> 00:01:11,810 运营价值投资研究平台 26 00:01:11,810 --> 00:01:15,959 专注提供安全边际的投资机会 27 00:01:15,959 --> 00:01:18,579 确保长期盈利能力 28 00:01:18,579 --> 00:01:20,739 拥有长期增长潜力 29 00:01:20,739 --> 00:01:23,159 希望以合理价格买入 30 00:01:23,159 --> 00:01:28,019 让我们看看当前亚马逊是否符合这一场景 31 00:01:28,019 --> 00:01:33,680 正如我刚在研究平台更新的两支股票 32 00:01:33,680 --> 00:01:36,019 谈到亚马逊 33 00:01:36,019 --> 00:01:40,780 我们讨论的多数建仓发生在上季度 34 00:01:40,780 --> 00:01:42,200 当前股价已回落 35 00:01:42,200 --> 00:01:45,009 这意味着我们可以以更低价格买入 36 00:01:45,009 --> 00:01:50,629 这些投资者在更低价位加仓 37 00:01:50,629 --> 00:01:52,728 克拉曼启动仓位 38 00:01:52,728 --> 00:01:55,228 埃克曼也增仓 39 00:01:55,228 --> 00:01:58,150 尽管主要建仓发生在低点 40 00:01:58,150 --> 00:01:59,609 像巴菲特 41 00:01:59,609 --> 00:02:05,730 但此前他已建仓并大幅减持 42 00:02:07,709 --> 00:02:09,719 但让我们看看贝索斯 43 00:02:09,719 --> 00:02:11,080 埃克曼的解释 44 00:02:11,080 --> 00:02:14,789 他已在演示中明确说明 45 00:02:14,789 --> 00:02:17,210 市场份额最大的云业务 46 00:02:17,210 --> 00:02:20,750 受益于基础设施和流程趋势 47 00:02:20,750 --> 00:02:24,639 长期主导零售电商运营 48 00:02:24,639 --> 00:02:28,329 已投入14%资本 49 00:02:28,329 --> 00:02:37,419 因亚马逊价值投资现处于历史最低市盈率 50 00:02:37,419 --> 00:02:39,639 很可能从古至今 51 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:42,139 当你看看它提供的内容 52 00:02:42,139 --> 00:02:43,460 正如之前所说 53 00:02:43,460 --> 00:02:46,329 电子商务业务持续增长 54 00:02:46,329 --> 00:02:48,788 大规模人工智能投资 55 00:02:48,788 --> 00:02:52,459 但亚马逊正在投资AWS 56 00:02:52,459 --> 00:02:56,538 这将为系统提供基础设施 57 00:02:56,538 --> 00:02:59,240 他们并非在赌博式投资 58 00:02:59,240 --> 00:03:02,879 最近两百亿的资本支出已计入账目 59 00:03:02,879 --> 00:03:06,509 他们是在满足客户需求 60 00:03:06,509 --> 00:03:07,669 我亲眼见过 61 00:03:07,669 --> 00:03:10,879 我的研究平台也运行在AWS上 62 00:03:10,879 --> 00:03:15,599 过去几个月出现了一些故障 63 00:03:15,599 --> 00:03:18,569 这意味着亚马逊需要加大投入 64 00:03:19,349 --> 00:03:21,509 为所有新客户提供定制服务 65 00:03:21,509 --> 00:03:25,449 新增容量并消除故障 66 00:03:25,449 --> 00:03:26,069 别担心 67 00:03:26,069 --> 00:03:28,789 九十九点几的高可用性 68 00:03:28,789 --> 00:03:31,389 但仍存在问题 69 00:03:31,389 --> 00:03:33,050 或服务器无法运行 70 00:03:33,050 --> 00:03:34,030 类似这样的情况 71 00:03:34,030 --> 00:03:35,770 收入持续增长 72 00:03:35,770 --> 00:03:40,769 但被超出预期的资本支出指引掩盖 73 00:03:40,769 --> 00:03:42,149 当我们观察亚马逊 74 00:03:42,149 --> 00:03:43,399 什么在发生变化 75 00:03:43,399 --> 00:03:48,498 AWS在稍有放缓后重新加速 76 00:03:48,498 --> 00:03:49,938 因为他们无法满足需求 77 00:03:49,938 --> 00:03:52,439 还有隐藏的领域 78 00:03:52,439 --> 00:03:54,960 亚马逊芯片与英伟达共同发展 79 00:03:54,960 --> 00:03:58,319 亚马逊也在自主研发并加大广告投入 80 00:03:58,319 --> 00:04:00,838 查看最新数据 81 00:04:00,838 --> 00:04:01,859 依然强劲 82 00:04:01,859 --> 00:04:05,019 营业利润增长12% 83 00:04:05,019 --> 00:04:08,219 分部业绩增长17% 84 00:04:08,219 --> 00:04:09,740 AWS增长2% 85 00:04:09,740 --> 00:04:11,500 增长4% 86 00:04:11,500 --> 00:04:13,560 高营业利润 87 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:14,199 这就是第三十 88 00:04:14,199 --> 00:04:16,970 约30%的利润率很出色 89 00:04:16,970 --> 00:04:20,089 现金流逻辑上在下降 90 00:04:20,089 --> 00:04:22,529 因为他们决定加大投资 91 00:04:22,529 --> 00:04:23,370 投资于 92 00:04:23,370 --> 00:04:24,538 继续投资 93 00:04:24,538 --> 00:04:26,699 满足需求 94 00:04:26,699 --> 00:04:27,379 长期来看 95 00:04:27,379 --> 00:04:29,678 他们将优化自由现金流 96 00:04:29,678 --> 00:04:32,139 当他们优化自由现金流时 97 00:04:32,139 --> 00:04:34,939 假设营业现金流持续增长 98 00:04:34,939 --> 00:04:38,720 假设五年后达到250亿 99 00:04:38,720 --> 00:04:42,800 资本支出将不再稳定在120亿 100 00:04:42,800 --> 00:04:45,139 也许会跌至七十 101 00:04:45,139 --> 00:04:50,019 这里就有八十亿美元的利润 102 00:04:50,019 --> 00:04:52,639 这能支撑当前的估值 103 00:04:52,639 --> 00:04:56,079 这就是大投资者可能关注的点 104 00:04:56,079 --> 00:04:58,259 不是明年或未来十二个月 105 00:04:58,259 --> 00:05:05,139 而是亚马逊长期增长及两大业务的潜力 106 00:05:05,139 --> 00:05:05,699 所以 107 00:05:05,699 --> 00:05:08,660 尽管自由现金流暂时转负 108 00:05:08,660 --> 00:05:10,500 这是亚马逊的常规操作 109 00:05:10,500 --> 00:05:12,889 这是合理价格下的增长机会 110 00:05:14,149 --> 00:05:16,750 若保持10-15%的增长 111 00:05:16,750 --> 00:05:19,910 25倍市盈率实在便宜 112 00:05:19,910 --> 00:05:22,220 未来有望带来回报 113 00:05:22,220 --> 00:05:22,600 现在 114 00:05:22,600 --> 00:05:25,620 在前几天的内在价值讨论中 115 00:05:25,620 --> 00:05:26,459 在魔七模型里 116 00:05:26,459 --> 00:05:28,529 我分析了亚马逊 117 00:05:28,529 --> 00:05:30,189 让我们看看 118 00:05:30,189 --> 00:05:32,250 它是魔七中最便宜的 119 00:05:32,250 --> 00:05:38,459 但或许我对情况过于保守 120 00:05:38,459 --> 00:05:42,269 我预计2026年每股收益为二十 121 00:05:42,269 --> 00:05:44,720 现在是十七点七 122 00:05:44,720 --> 00:05:48,279 现在需要考虑增长情况 123 00:05:48,279 --> 00:05:49,959 我设定了8%的增长率 124 00:05:49,959 --> 00:05:52,410 这仍属良好 125 00:05:52,410 --> 00:05:55,050 但不如亚马逊潜力大 126 00:05:55,050 --> 00:05:57,600 若采用15%的增长率 127 00:06:01,199 --> 00:06:04,189 若预期10%的折现率 128 00:06:04,189 --> 00:06:06,110 市盈率降至20 129 00:06:06,110 --> 00:06:08,949 内在价值为179 130 00:06:08,949 --> 00:06:09,889 180 131 00:06:09,889 --> 00:06:13,259 接近当前股价 132 00:06:13,259 --> 00:06:16,420 因此若预期9%的回报 133 00:06:16,420 --> 00:06:18,029 长期或8% 134 00:06:18,029 --> 00:06:19,589 这是不错的回报 135 00:06:19,589 --> 00:06:23,350 对于投资者的数十亿资金 136 00:06:23,350 --> 00:06:25,680 这回报相当可观 137 00:06:25,680 --> 00:06:27,120 另外如果观察 138 00:06:27,120 --> 00:06:29,500 当前股价对应8%的回报 139 00:06:29,500 --> 00:06:32,920 但市场多数标的仅4% 140 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:34,418 这意味着 141 00:06:34,418 --> 00:06:41,168 若亚马逊情况比现有内在价值模型更快实现 142 00:06:41,168 --> 00:06:43,079 在三年内达成 143 00:06:43,079 --> 00:06:47,500 则两年内可获50%回报 144 00:06:47,500 --> 00:06:48,660 这就是十五 145 00:06:48,660 --> 00:06:50,000 20%年化收益 146 00:06:50,000 --> 00:06:54,540 或许这就是为何尤其是德拉肯·米勒和埃克曼 147 00:06:54,540 --> 00:06:56,699 我认为在买入克莱曼 148 00:06:56,699 --> 00:06:58,379 同时运用现金 149 00:06:58,379 --> 00:07:03,600 他具备处理低风险情境的能力 150 00:07:03,600 --> 00:07:04,540 回报丰厚 151 00:07:04,540 --> 00:07:06,759 亚马逊持续发展壮大 152 00:07:06,759 --> 00:07:10,560 我不意外它可能突破三万亿美元市值 153 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:13,930 未来可能实现150亿美元净利润 154 00:07:13,930 --> 00:07:19,519 但这150亿美元净利润无需立即达成 155 00:07:19,519 --> 00:07:22,220 如果市场开始考虑明年 156 00:07:22,220 --> 00:07:25,259 认为三年后将达成目标 157 00:07:25,259 --> 00:07:26,899 股价将重新定价 158 00:07:26,899 --> 00:07:28,918 因此亚马逊当前未被充分定价 159 00:07:28,918 --> 00:07:33,778 市场目前估值约8-9%的预期回报率 160 00:07:33,778 --> 00:07:36,319 这就是他们持续买入的原因 161 00:07:36,319 --> 00:07:40,069 2040年情景的上行空间 162 00:07:40,069 --> 00:07:42,110 下行风险较小 163 00:07:42,110 --> 00:07:45,240 亚马逊将实现这些业绩 164 00:07:47,459 --> 00:07:52,629 若成功则可能更高 165 00:07:52,629 --> 00:07:55,009 这就是潜在上行空间 166 00:07:55,009 --> 00:07:57,670 正向回报概率存在 167 00:07:57,670 --> 00:07:59,529 但何时实现不确定 168 00:07:59,529 --> 00:08:05,050 长期或聪明投资者何时大量入场 169 00:08:05,050 --> 00:08:08,990 我也对亚马逊稍显乐观 170 00:08:08,990 --> 00:08:14,250 将其预期回报率定为8%，与克拉曼一致 171 00:08:14,250 --> 00:08:16,649 甚至可能更好 172 00:08:16,649 --> 00:08:19,579 结论基于当前形势 173 00:08:19,579 --> 00:08:21,439 鉴于大资金持续买入 174 00:08:21,439 --> 00:08:26,430 现在加入投资组合不失为佳选 175 00:08:26,430 --> 00:08:28,870 视投资组合分散程度而定 176 00:08:28,870 --> 00:08:29,769 我会参与吗 177 00:08:29,769 --> 00:08:31,149 从积极面来看 178 00:08:31,149 --> 00:08:32,190 存在增长潜力 179 00:08:32,190 --> 00:08:33,490 资金持续流入 180 00:08:33,490 --> 00:08:35,250 我们明天再详细讨论 181 00:08:35,250 --> 00:08:38,129 仍在进入AI领域 182 00:08:38,129 --> 00:08:40,318 全球七人正在买入 183 00:08:40,318 --> 00:08:42,078 推动股价上涨 184 00:08:42,078 --> 00:08:43,798 股票相对便宜 185 00:08:43,798 --> 00:08:44,979 相比其他公司 186 00:08:44,979 --> 00:08:47,889 因为其他公司增速仅14% 187 00:08:47,889 --> 00:08:49,429 市盈率高达30倍 188 00:08:49,429 --> 00:08:50,828 而此仅为25倍 189 00:08:50,828 --> 00:08:52,208 这是优质企业 190 00:08:52,208 --> 00:08:54,109 已成为必需型企业 191 00:08:54,109 --> 00:08:56,509 在云服务AWS领域 192 00:08:56,509 --> 00:08:59,938 我在2023年犯了错误 193 00:08:59,938 --> 00:09:03,359 需小幅调整仓位 194 00:09:03,359 --> 00:09:06,460 因为我不会亏损 195 00:09:06,460 --> 00:09:10,080 当时亚马逊千亿美元市值是超值 196 00:09:10,080 --> 00:09:11,129 不过 197 00:09:11,129 --> 00:09:12,769 这就是最佳时机 198 00:09:12,769 --> 00:09:14,190 我现在就买吗 199 00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:18,450 我们先讨论我的个人投资组合 200 00:09:18,450 --> 00:09:18,769 不 201 00:09:18,769 --> 00:09:21,779 因为我在模型组合里表现更好 202 00:09:21,779 --> 00:09:23,759 我有5%的现金 203 00:09:23,759 --> 00:09:26,710 我留着等机会 204 00:09:26,710 --> 00:09:29,909 如果亚马逊股价再跌 205 00:09:29,909 --> 00:09:34,980 可能会出现绝佳机会变得有趣 206 00:09:34,980 --> 00:09:36,779 在多元化组合中 207 00:09:36,779 --> 00:09:38,559 我现在在研究很多东西 208 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,960 这里能带来什么额外价值 209 00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:43,379 因为这是我观察市场的组合 210 00:09:43,379 --> 00:09:44,179 观察动态 211 00:09:44,179 --> 00:09:50,629 或许可以作为入门步骤加入一些 212 00:09:50,629 --> 00:09:53,639 在合理价格买入增长股 213 00:09:53,639 --> 00:09:54,679 负面因素 214 00:09:54,679 --> 00:09:56,120 为什么我要等待 215 00:09:56,120 --> 00:09:59,818 美国在全球市场的份额 216 00:09:59,818 --> 00:10:02,678 因为全球市场是全球性的 217 00:10:02,678 --> 00:10:04,619 可以从中国购买商品 218 00:10:04,619 --> 00:10:05,818 从亚马逊 219 00:10:05,818 --> 00:10:07,039 从这里从那里 220 00:10:07,039 --> 00:10:11,009 美国市场占有63%份额 221 00:10:11,009 --> 00:10:17,460 我认为长期会回归到50年代水平 222 00:10:17,460 --> 00:10:20,240 因此这对亚马逊有压力 223 00:10:20,240 --> 00:10:22,539 我不担心市值调整 224 00:10:22,539 --> 00:10:24,239 如果情况不妙 225 00:10:24,239 --> 00:10:25,198 他们会下调估值 226 00:10:25,198 --> 00:10:26,639 但利润非常高 227 00:10:26,639 --> 00:10:28,938 但谈到相对估值 228 00:10:28,938 --> 00:10:31,399 我更看重绝对估值 229 00:10:31,399 --> 00:10:32,179 而非相对 230 00:10:32,179 --> 00:10:33,980 市盈率25倍不错 231 00:10:33,980 --> 00:10:36,019 市盈率18倍 232 00:10:36,019 --> 00:10:40,210 17倍对亚马逊就是绝对捡漏 233 00:10:40,210 --> 00:10:42,409 这只是个视角情况 234 00:10:42,409 --> 00:10:44,649 每次我做这类视频 235 00:10:44,649 --> 00:10:48,389 能帮助我思考何时行动 236 00:10:48,389 --> 00:10:50,850 我会记在清单里 237 00:10:50,850 --> 00:10:55,070 同时分析我的多元化组合时 238 00:10:55,070 --> 00:10:55,990 更新时 239 00:10:55,990 --> 00:10:57,070 我想在三月 240 00:10:57,070 --> 00:11:01,720 然后看看亚马逊是否适合该组合 241 00:11:01,720 --> 00:11:03,620 感谢观看非常有趣 242 00:11:03,620 --> 00:11:04,899 评论区告诉我 243 00:11:04,899 --> 00:11:07,259 是否要加入你的投资组合
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