【NaNa说美股】20260611我真特么服了！

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大家好

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欢迎回到娜娜说

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美股今天是6月11号周四呃

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市场日内反转再反转哈

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给人整不会了

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昨天下午

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美军呢再次对伊朗境内

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实施了所谓的额外自卫性打击

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由于昨天市场已经大跌了

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提前消化了这个利空

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所以打完之后呢

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美股纪念盘前就赶紧抓住喘息之机

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偷偷摸摸的反弹

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纳指期货盘前一度涨超1.2%

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但这个时候川普又跳出来发帖说

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如果伊朗不签署协议

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今晚美军将再对伊朗发动严厉打击

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并且称在不久的将来

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美国呢将夺取哈尔克岛

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以及其他石油基础设施要点

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全面控制伊朗的油气市场

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就像对委内瑞拉所说的那样

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他这么一喊

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股指期货立即就短线跳水了

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当时我老郁闷了

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估摸着仓总要么是开空了

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要么是想要低价抄底哈

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这几天一再的在美股开盘前发帖喊打喊杀

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随后公布的5月PPI数据

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进一步收窄了妻子的涨幅

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五美国5月PPI同比增长6.5%

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创下2022年11月以来最大涨幅

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环比上涨1.1%

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也远超预期

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能源价格叠加运输仓储费用上行

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共同推高了PPPI

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剔除食品和能源的核心

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PPI同比增长4.9%

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低于预期5.4%

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环比上涨0.4%

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同样低于预期的0.5%

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展现出了通胀中相对温和的一面

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但是CPI与PPI之间不断扩大大的价差呢

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令企业利润承压

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就是生产端嗯成本涨幅持续高于消费端的价格

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涨幅

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意味着企业正在替消费者扛下大部分成本

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如果时间短还好哈

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时间长了扛不住了

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早晚要向下游消费端转嫁成本

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从而引发次生通胀

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这份报告与昨天的CPI

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共同描绘出通胀持续升温的图景

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伊朗战争引发的能源价格冲击持续向下游传导

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美国通胀压力进一步积聚

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在劳动力市场从始动能的背景之下

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一纸通胀已经成为美联储当前的首要任务

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留给卧室的政策选择空间越发受限了

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在数据公布之后

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市场加息预期再次小幅升温

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雅注年内加息一次

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与此同时

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欧阳涵也在今天宣布了近3年来的首次加息

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目前欧元区的通胀率已经超过3%

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随着油价冲击加剧

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市场普遍预期

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下周就轮到日本央行加息了

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在这种背景之下

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纳指在开盘之后呢

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只能维持沉闷的横盘震荡

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而伊朗军方对川普的强硬回应

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更让市场情绪呢再次紧绷哈

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结果到了下午01:30

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刚好世界杯开幕的时刻

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不知道大家有没有去看川普

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这时候突袭空投

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他发帖宣布

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并且获得批准

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因此他已经取消了

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原定于今晚进行的空袭和轰炸计划

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他称相关磋商以及最终条款

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都已经获得各相关方的批准

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在协议最终敲定之前

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海上封锁措施将会继续执行

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签署协议的时间和地点呢将会很快公布

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随后他在白宫讲话中进一步确认

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刚刚与伊朗达成重大解决协议

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相关文件已经进入最后阶段

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可能与本周末在欧洲由副总统万斯出席签署

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届时霍尔木兹海峡将会全面开放

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他本人也已经与卡塔尔

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阿联酋

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沙特以及内塔尼亚胡等各国首脑通了电话

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这消息落地之后

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哈积压多日的恐慌情绪瞬间转化为暴涨动能

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纳指原地起飞

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拉涨了2.54%

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标普与道指也一改颓势

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大幅走高

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WTI原油期货呢应声暴跌

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各大板块都迎来了久违的全线反弹

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半导体股票领涨科技股

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其实这个与我前天的判断完全吻合哈

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指数急跌到这个阶段

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本就不应该再过度看空了

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超跌反弹随时会来

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尤其是本周五SPACEX上市这个大日子在即

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整个华尔街的主力机构呢都有强烈的护盘动机

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原本周三这一天CPI落地之后

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我认为指数可以继续反弹到月均线的

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结果被美伊冲突意外打断了

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反弹告吹

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今天盘前川普又发出威胁

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也让人一度心灰意冷

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我还以为今天又要白干了呢

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结果盘中他口吐席

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最终拯救了多头

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标普500指数纪念日

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K拉出了一根结结实实的中阳线

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收盘重新站上了5日均线

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至于这份协议到底是真是假

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谁也不知道

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伊朗方面呢暂无回应

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其实也无所谓啦

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只要能把这个周五SPACEX上市大日子

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给安全撑过去就行了哈

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周末要是签不成再掀桌子嘛

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我早上看新闻的时候

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法国国际广播电台说

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三名伊朗消息人士

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和一名欧洲官员向路透社透露

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美姨之间打归打哈

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私底下的秘密外交浪潮呢从没有停止

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川普与卢比奥亲自全力投入此事

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一手挥舞大棒

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一手暗中谈判

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试图榨取伊朗的最大让步

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同时呢也明确警告以色列不要横加干涉

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破坏这个谈判进展

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当时我看的时候还有点半信半疑哈

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尤其是川普发帖威胁之后

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如今看来是真的

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其实美国对伊朗也是有杀手锏的啦

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只是目前为止呢一直选择不用

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就是摧毁掉哈尔克岛的石油基础设施

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这个岛是伊朗约90%的石油出口枢纽

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美军想要占领该岛

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需要大量的地面部队

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可能会造成大量美军伤亡呃所以呢就一直不做

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但如果不占领

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只是摧毁这个岛的基础设施

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那还是很容易的哈

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就全面空袭就对了

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一旦摧毁了伊朗的战争

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资金就会崩溃

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没有钱就买不了导弹了

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嗯目前为止

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美军呢

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虽然多次对哈尔克岛进行了大规模的空袭

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但是岛上的能源基础设施每次哈都被故意保留

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没有动就故意避开这个岛

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本质上就是美国威胁伊朗的最大筹码

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至今呢隐而不发

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围而不奸

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就是将它作为极限施压的终极筹码来用的

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今天盘前川普发帖说

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如果伊朗再不签署协议

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美国将会夺取这个岛以及其他石油基础设施

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要点可能就是在对伊朗隔空喊话哈

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下最后通牒了

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从技术面来看呢

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截止目前

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美股的整体表现

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依然遵循了地缘政治事件的典型路径

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就是先下跌

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随后恢复

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不过只要指数依然受制于7600点的

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关键阻力位

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就在这个下方的话

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那当前上涨就只能以技术性反弹来看待哈

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修复前面急跌所造成的超卖状态

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与美联储利率会议握手的首秀才是真正的硬仗

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接下来的反弹呢

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我们需要密切关注

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月均线与10日均线在7400

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70~7500点交叉形成的这个共振阻力区

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在情绪层面

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CNN恐惧贪婪指标当前读数为30

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仍处于恐惧区域

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距离进入极度恐惧呢只有一步之遥

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市场情绪在过去一周内出现了断崖式下跌啊

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从53的中立直接就暴跌到了26的恐惧

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精准的折射出市场在SPACEX上市之前哈

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所经历的流动性阵痛

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WTI原油期货价格的大幅回落

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原本交易员们在今天早盘的时候都快要犯弃

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对美伊快速外交解决的期望了

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开始将美伊冲突视为一场

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可能要长期持续的对抗局面

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结果世事变化太快啊

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前一刻还打生打死

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后一刻就喊亲爱的了嗯

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川普说

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美军自上个月以来一直在执行一项秘密任务

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就是帮助游船绕过伊朗

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在霍尔木兹海峡的力量控制

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他称在伊朗部分雷达设备被摧毁之后

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船只呢能够在夜间通过海峡

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并且表示已经有超过1亿桶石油

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避开了伊朗的封锁

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不过这个数字尚未得到独立证实

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虽然伊朗昨天宣布封锁海峡

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不准任何船只通行

214
00:09:16,399 --> 00:09:19,269
无论是游船还是商船都不许通过

215
00:09:19,269 --> 00:09:21,309
但是美国中央司令部表示

216
00:09:21,309 --> 00:09:22,990
海峡目前并没有关闭

217
00:09:22,990 --> 00:09:25,460
商业船只仍在持续进出

218
00:09:25,460 --> 00:09:28,460
就是薛定鄂市的这个海峡封锁与关闭

219
00:09:28,460 --> 00:09:29,700
到底是什么情况

220
00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:30,669
我们都不知道

221
00:09:30,669 --> 00:09:32,990
在个股和板块的分化中呢

222
00:09:36,309 --> 00:09:38,759
MAGS终于迎来了喘息哈

223
00:09:38,759 --> 00:09:41,789
从6月初高点回撤了11%之后

224
00:09:41,789 --> 00:09:45,610
几乎回吐掉了自3月谷底以来的一半涨幅

225
00:09:45,610 --> 00:09:47,809
但是这并非基本面的恶化

226
00:09:47,809 --> 00:09:52,350
而是机构为了迎接SPACEX上市进行资金清算

227
00:09:52,350 --> 00:09:57,549
无差别抛售了这些流动性最好的大盘权重股

228
00:09:57,549 --> 00:09:59,849
把它们当作提款机

229
00:09:59,849 --> 00:10:03,828
如今空头动能呢已经得到了较大程度的宣泄

230
00:10:03,828 --> 00:10:04,208
Speak

231
00:10:04,208 --> 00:10:04,969
30之后

232
00:10:04,969 --> 00:10:09,929
这些的巨头反而可能会迎来抄底资金的回补

233
00:10:09,929 --> 00:10:13,110
微软最近埋头苦练九阴真经啊

234
00:10:13,110 --> 00:10:15,090
即便今天大盘暴力反弹

235
00:10:15,090 --> 00:10:17,250
都没能够让他成功收阳

236
00:10:19,610 --> 00:10:20,990
脱离了软件板块

237
00:10:20,990 --> 00:10:23,850
现在盘后adobe股价呢也在财报之后下跌

238
00:10:23,850 --> 00:10:26,529
可能又要带崩这个软件股了

239
00:10:26,529 --> 00:10:28,610
虽然微软股价跌了这么久哈

240
00:10:28,610 --> 00:10:31,220
可能要死猫跳反弹了嗯

241
00:10:31,220 --> 00:10:35,279
但是呢大部分资金都忙着去抄底AI硬件

242
00:10:35,279 --> 00:10:38,179
分到软件这边的资金相对较少

243
00:10:38,179 --> 00:10:41,669
所以就算是短线波超跌反弹哈

244
00:10:41,669 --> 00:10:45,539
嗯也没有其他热门股的这个暴涨来得香

245
00:10:45,539 --> 00:10:47,860
也不要说什么巨头买不了吃亏

246
00:10:47,860 --> 00:10:48,940
买不了上当啦

247
00:10:48,940 --> 00:10:51,879
你看着别人在其他股票上大把的赚钱

248
00:10:51,879 --> 00:10:56,340
自己重仓被套在这里躲牛市一年半载

249
00:10:56,340 --> 00:10:59,250
没有几个人能够做到心态不崩的哈

250
00:10:59,250 --> 00:11:00,490
有句话说得好

251
00:11:00,490 --> 00:11:03,529
看着别人赚钱比自己亏钱还难受

252
00:11:03,529 --> 00:11:07,500
我觉得其实买它还真的不如买QQ了

253
00:11:07,500 --> 00:11:10,299
资金对硬件的饥渴呢

254
00:11:10,299 --> 00:11:14,610
在存储芯片板块中可谓是表现的淋漓尽致呀

255
00:11:14,610 --> 00:11:17,350
今天闪迪大涨14.5%

256
00:11:17,350 --> 00:11:19,429
再创历史新高了

257
00:11:19,429 --> 00:11:22,429
前几天的那些大跌犹如黄粱一梦

258
00:11:22,429 --> 00:11:24,190
供应链消息显示

259
00:11:24,190 --> 00:11:28,019
随着英伟达下一代显卡RU并进入放量阶段

260
00:11:28,019 --> 00:11:30,419
全球存储市场呢正面临一场

261
00:11:30,419 --> 00:11:32,750
持续深化的供应危机

262
00:11:32,750 --> 00:11:36,350
主要云大厂呢已经预定了2027年全部

263
00:11:36,350 --> 00:11:37,909
长期协议产能

264
00:11:37,909 --> 00:11:40,899
并且还提前布局2028年供货

265
00:11:40,899 --> 00:11:43,779
d ram与难的供需缺口

266
00:11:43,779 --> 00:11:47,230
将会在2026年的下半年进一步扩大

267
00:11:47,230 --> 00:11:50,850
行业普遍预期2027年的短缺程度啊

268
00:11:50,850 --> 00:11:53,429
会超过这个2026年存储价格

269
00:11:53,429 --> 00:11:56,568
有望在未来两到3年内维持强势

270
00:11:56,568 --> 00:11:59,749
然而硬币的另一面呢是重资产

271
00:11:59,749 --> 00:12:01,970
基建三的负重前行

272
00:12:01,970 --> 00:12:06,659
甲骨文因为资本开支超预期以及的融资计划

273
00:12:06,659 --> 00:12:09,460
股价今天跳空大跌8.5%

274
00:12:09,460 --> 00:12:12,159
反弹呢止步于50日均线

275
00:12:12,159 --> 00:12:13,320
2026财年

276
00:12:13,320 --> 00:12:16,620
自有现金流为负的237亿美元

277
00:12:16,620 --> 00:12:21,200
2027财年还要再砸700亿美元的资本开支

278
00:12:21,200 --> 00:12:21,919
为此呢

279
00:12:21,919 --> 00:12:26,139
不得不通过债务和股权再融资400亿美元

280
00:12:26,139 --> 00:12:27,100
目前为止

281
00:12:27,100 --> 00:12:29,139
甲骨文背负着大约1000

282
00:12:29,139 --> 00:12:31,860
170亿美元的债务哈

283
00:12:31,860 --> 00:12:35,250
是金融业以外最大的债券发行三

284
00:12:35,250 --> 00:12:40,500
其实要我说哈AI数据中心就不是一个好生意

285
00:12:40,500 --> 00:12:44,019
他呢具备了商业世界中最糟糕的三个特征

286
00:12:44,019 --> 00:12:45,419
就是重资产

287
00:12:45,419 --> 00:12:46,440
高杠杆

288
00:12:46,440 --> 00:12:47,589
重折旧

289
00:12:47,589 --> 00:12:49,229
前期投资巨大

290
00:12:49,229 --> 00:12:50,528
回报周期长

291
00:12:50,528 --> 00:12:51,950
技术迭代又快

292
00:12:51,950 --> 00:12:54,690
因为它的芯片如今是一年一迭代

293
00:12:54,690 --> 00:12:58,350
导致赚钱速度赶不上这个资产贬值的速度哈

294
00:12:58,350 --> 00:13:00,220
对这些数据中心来说

295
00:13:00,220 --> 00:13:03,320
在2000年互联网泡沫前夕

296
00:13:03,320 --> 00:13:07,139
全球掀起了轰轰烈烈的铺设光纤网络

297
00:13:07,139 --> 00:13:09,690
和构建服务器集群的热潮

298
00:13:09,690 --> 00:13:13,589
当时的巨头比如CISCO4通北电网络

299
00:13:13,589 --> 00:13:17,788
当演着就和今天甲骨文英伟达类似的角色

300
00:13:17,788 --> 00:13:19,688
都受互联网时代的惨子

301
00:13:19,688 --> 00:13:21,500
那最后的结果大家都知道了

302
00:13:21,500 --> 00:13:24,379
互联网确实改变了这个世界

303
00:13:24,379 --> 00:13:26,860
但是由于前期过度建设呢

304
00:13:26,860 --> 00:13:29,089
光纤容量严重过剩

305
00:13:29,089 --> 00:13:33,799
导致带宽价格在几年内暴跌了90%以上

306
00:13:34,360 --> 00:13:39,519
基本上绝大多数基建巨头最终全都大伤元气哈

307
00:13:39,519 --> 00:13:41,360
历史的铁律表明

308
00:13:41,360 --> 00:13:45,519
技术革命成功并不代表着第一批买单

309
00:13:45,519 --> 00:13:48,960
大搞基建的股票能给股东带来回报

310
00:13:48,960 --> 00:13:51,919
真正最后摘取果实的往往是

311
00:13:51,919 --> 00:13:55,559
等基建价格跌成了白菜价之后

312
00:13:55,559 --> 00:13:58,080
在廉价算力上生长出来的

313
00:13:58,080 --> 00:14:00,539
下游软件和服务应用商

314
00:14:00,539 --> 00:14:01,720
比如昔日的谷歌

315
00:14:01,720 --> 00:14:03,429
亚马逊奈飞等等

316
00:14:03,429 --> 00:14:08,320
当前呃AI基建的狂热本质上还是由这个谷歌

317
00:14:08,320 --> 00:14:08,940
亚马逊

318
00:14:08,940 --> 00:14:12,320
meta和微软这四大甲方呃

319
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:13,720
为了不掉队而

320
00:14:13,720 --> 00:14:17,200
进行了一场囚徒困境式的军备竞赛

321
00:14:17,200 --> 00:14:20,490
就这四个买单的现阶段能够挣钱

322
00:14:20,490 --> 00:14:22,129
只是因为算力短缺

323
00:14:22,129 --> 00:14:23,330
租金高昂

324
00:14:23,330 --> 00:14:24,809
属于卖方市场

325
00:14:24,809 --> 00:14:27,250
一旦算力供给拐点到来

326
00:14:27,250 --> 00:14:31,318
第一批倒下的必然是这些负债累累的数据中心

327
00:14:31,318 --> 00:14:33,359
当然这种危机不是眼下

328
00:14:33,359 --> 00:14:35,490
也不是短期就会发生的哈

329
00:14:35,490 --> 00:14:38,649
呃可能要等未来一年半年之后

330
00:14:38,649 --> 00:14:43,399
至少在OpenAI onto pick这两大巨头IPO落地市场

331
00:14:43,399 --> 00:14:46,200
完成最后一波狂欢炒作之前呢

332
00:14:46,200 --> 00:14:49,159
AI基建股的博弈机会依然存在

333
00:14:49,159 --> 00:14:52,250
呃还有几个大波段可以做的

334
00:14:52,250 --> 00:14:54,610
这一种高负债基金的压力

335
00:14:54,610 --> 00:14:57,570
同样体现在算力新贵call web身上

336
00:14:57,570 --> 00:14:59,320
公司今天宣布

337
00:14:59,320 --> 00:15:02,440
计划发行35亿美元的优先票据

338
00:15:02,440 --> 00:15:04,299
以借新还旧

339
00:15:04,299 --> 00:15:07,799
公司总债务已经高达351亿美元了

340
00:15:07,799 --> 00:15:11,230
股价值月初以来的累计下挫了30%

341
00:15:11,230 --> 00:15:14,429
今天日K打造前期重要支撑位

342
00:15:14,429 --> 00:15:17,089
90亿美元之后勉强止跌

343
00:15:17,089 --> 00:15:19,448
如果能在此处形成V反

344
00:15:19,448 --> 00:15:22,340
短期反弹目标可以先看到105美元

345
00:15:22,340 --> 00:15:24,100
一旦失守90亿美元

346
00:15:24,100 --> 00:15:26,080
那技术形态彻底破位

347
00:15:26,080 --> 00:15:28,580
股价将直接下探75美元

348
00:15:28,580 --> 00:15:30,289
不怪这个公司的呃

349
00:15:30,289 --> 00:15:30,730
高管

350
00:15:30,730 --> 00:15:34,230
还有机构投资者一直疯狂卖公司卖股票哈

351
00:15:34,230 --> 00:15:35,809
刚才我们所分析的

352
00:15:35,809 --> 00:15:36,730
像这种公司

353
00:15:36,730 --> 00:15:40,080
到最后基本上就是第一批倒下的

354
00:15:40,080 --> 00:15:42,019
所以现在趁着高价

355
00:15:42,019 --> 00:15:44,080
当然是要持续买他们手里的股票

356
00:15:44,080 --> 00:15:47,778
巨多高管们哪怕套现了23亿美元

357
00:15:47,778 --> 00:15:50,458
手里还有3/4的股权呢

358
00:15:50,458 --> 00:15:54,100
所以这个股价后面肯定还是会涨起来的哈

359
00:15:54,100 --> 00:15:55,639
还有好几个波段

360
00:15:55,639 --> 00:15:56,860
他们会一直卖

361
00:15:56,860 --> 00:16:00,720
到时候这些高管们个个套现数百亿美元

362
00:16:00,720 --> 00:16:03,259
就剩下一地鸡毛给投资者了

363
00:16:03,259 --> 00:16:05,700
作为四大甲方之一的亚马逊呢

364
00:16:05,700 --> 00:16:07,980
也同样在监管文件中披露了

365
00:16:07,980 --> 00:16:11,840
由花旗牵头的175亿美元的贷款额度

366
00:16:11,840 --> 00:16:13,360
但至少它的基本面

367
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,940
比那些数据中心要稳健的多是吧

368
00:16:15,940 --> 00:16:18,690
股价今天在半年线上止跌反弹

369
00:16:18,690 --> 00:16:22,450
昨天亚马逊宣布全面推出零担货运服务

370
00:16:22,450 --> 00:16:25,590
直接就把传统零蛋货运板块干趴下了

371
00:16:25,590 --> 00:16:28,139
ODFL下跌约5%

372
00:16:28,139 --> 00:16:31,120
板块市值单日蒸发了数10亿美元

373
00:16:31,120 --> 00:16:32,179
今天就反弹

374
00:16:32,179 --> 00:16:33,019
收复了失地

375
00:16:33,019 --> 00:16:34,139
股价年初至今

376
00:16:34,139 --> 00:16:37,200
累计涨幅呢已经达到约58%

377
00:16:37,200 --> 00:16:39,700
目前处于历史最高水平哈

378
00:16:39,700 --> 00:16:42,610
技术面呈现明显的超卖特征

379
00:16:42,610 --> 00:16:47,149
高估值放大的潜在负面信息的这个冲击效应

380
00:16:47,149 --> 00:16:51,499
燃料电池股BE股价近日连续下跌之后呢

381
00:16:51,499 --> 00:16:53,629
今天跟随的大盘反弹

382
00:16:53,629 --> 00:16:58,440
一者数据中心项目暂停的消息打压了这股价

383
00:16:58,440 --> 00:17:03,379
据称该项目是在客户主动要求后才叫停施工的

384
00:17:03,379 --> 00:17:04,839
至于这个客户是谁

385
00:17:04,839 --> 00:17:05,660
为什么叫停

386
00:17:05,660 --> 00:17:06,660
是不是缺钱

387
00:17:06,660 --> 00:17:08,690
目前都没有透露嗯

388
00:17:08,690 --> 00:17:12,069
be与这个项目存在着供应链关联

389
00:17:12,069 --> 00:17:13,190
就是项目方呢

390
00:17:13,190 --> 00:17:17,390
与美国电力公司有一项电力购买协议存在

391
00:17:17,390 --> 00:17:21,609
而这协议又绑定了be e的固体氧化物

392
00:17:21,609 --> 00:17:23,200
燃料电池供应

393
00:17:23,200 --> 00:17:26,640
所以这条供应链一旦出现任何松动的话

394
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,640
那be e的收入预期就会直接受到影响

395
00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:32,749
不过即便计入这个周三的下跌哈

396
00:17:32,749 --> 00:17:35,989
这股价过去一年累计涨幅仍然接近十倍

397
00:17:35,989 --> 00:17:38,369
估值压力已经明显上升

398
00:17:38,369 --> 00:17:41,170
自动化测试设备供应商T12

399
00:17:41,170 --> 00:17:42,470
获得了美国空军

400
00:17:42,470 --> 00:17:45,730
一份1.4亿美元的固定价格需求合同

401
00:17:45,730 --> 00:17:50,400
为后者提供多功能诊断自动测试站套件

402
00:17:50,400 --> 00:17:51,960
这不仅巩固了tr

403
00:17:51,960 --> 00:17:55,000
在国防技术市场的关键供应商地位

404
00:17:55,000 --> 00:17:58,799
也为股价呢今天注入了10%的大涨动能啊

405
00:17:58,799 --> 00:18:00,500
行今天我们就说到这里

406
00:18:00,500 --> 00:18:02,079
明天就是大戏了哈

407
00:18:02,079 --> 00:18:04,039
这个speak sex上市

408
00:18:04,039 --> 00:18:07,700
不知道各位有没有打新到这个股票呀

409
00:18:07,700 --> 00:18:11,180
我估计呃明天嗯应该挺疯狂的

410
00:18:11,180 --> 00:18:14,500
据说很多散户都没能够买到新股哈

411
00:18:14,500 --> 00:18:17,579
那只能够明天去追他了行

412
00:18:17,579 --> 00:18:20,380
那我们就明天见拜拜

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