【Financial Education】2026年股市巨震：科技巨头陨落，我正全线杀入这只潜力股！

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煎饼到处都是

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看看银价

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女士们先生们今年已全线撤退

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这简直太神奇了

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因为银价是主要标的

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仿佛就在几周前

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如今银价从几周前的高点暴跌40%

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看看这个

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这是IGV

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这是

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呃

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基本上像软件ETF之类的

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现在已彻底死亡

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此时此刻

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看看这个

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我说

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请记住各位

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我们已进入年中，下跌24%

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彻底死寂了

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这些股票仍在被无情击溃

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看看Intuit

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Intuit股票

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我说

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简直

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你只需回溯六个月前

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所有人都认为这是全球最佳商业模式

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没错，而如今这只股票仅剩4.25%

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今年以来

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简直糟糕透顶

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Salesforce下跌超30%

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今年以来再次

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还有另一个

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回溯十八个月前

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人们称这是全球最佳商业模式之一

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这些股票正被无情抛售

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没错，这只股票毫无喘息之机

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看看Adobe

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这只股票今年以来下跌25%

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越来越难了

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但就Adobe而言

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现在开始难以继续打压股价

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股价从40跌至11或10

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此时此刻

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现在连ServiceNow也难以下压

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今天传来好消息

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但仍未起作用

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股票早盘大幅上涨后仍收跌

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这只股票今年以来已下跌超30%

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而我们已进入年中

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简直难以置信

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魔七科技股在2026年表现糟糕

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比如看看这个

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所有股票都是红色下跌

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今年彻底失去赎回价值

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每个都是这样

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我是说

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难以置信

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英伟达股价下跌

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Meta股价下跌

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苹果股价下跌

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我以为苹果下跌让我挺震惊的

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因为我觉得苹果今年表现不错

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然后我查看了

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我突然意识到

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糟糕了

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苹果全年实际呈红色下跌

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太疯狂了

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谷歌麦当劳股价下跌

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特斯拉股价下跌

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亚马逊股价下跌

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巨头和微软

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微软是其中最差的

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2026年跌幅达16%以上

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看看这个

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这显示了标普500的热力图

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这里有大量绿色上涨板块

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沃尔玛

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Costco

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可口可乐

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百事可乐、宝洁、家得宝

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你知道的

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卡特彼勒

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约翰

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迪尔公司这些企业

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很多能源股

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表现非常亮眼

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不过

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这些魔七类科技股

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根本没地方可去

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而像这样的股票

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我今天在X页面发布了这个

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如果你想关注我的X账号

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描述区下方都有链接

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我说

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这家普通餐饮股表现优异

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过去几年跑赢90%科技股

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嗯

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真是令人着迷

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蛋糕股基本翻倍了我的初始投入

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你知道的

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刚回来

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呃

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有点像2023年中期

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这支股票真是令人着迷

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涨幅惊人，接近七十万美元

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且未计入该股票获得的股息

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自从我开始买入蛋糕股基本翻倍了

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没错

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与此同时，那软件ETF上涨了36%

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而软科技股上涨28%

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这说明如果你选对了位置

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就能

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你知道的

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彻底改变局面

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尤其是在入场时机方面

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看看ELF这只股票

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ELF今年上涨近12%

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这只股票今年波动剧烈

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但归根结底

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今年表现还算不错

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一个月半赚12%

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你愿意接受这Nike的涨幅

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我们接受这个雅诗兰黛

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这只股票五年来上涨

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这些无聊股票

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兄弟

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它们赢了

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它们赢了

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你知道的

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魔七

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它拥有所有话题和热度

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过去几年

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科技股整体

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但这些炒作现在并非主旋律

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而这些无聊公司过去三年无人问津

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如今突然涌入大量资金

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看看这个

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这是我的特斯拉对冲

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股票是特斯拉两倍杠杆

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今年上涨超18%

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堪称完美对冲

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没错

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今天视频要讲的四个核心主题

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第一天或美光

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MU和美光万圣节

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或这些股票

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过去一年最热门的股票

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过去一年

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甚至今年以来

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嗯

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这值得投资吗

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还是这是个陷阱

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我们将在视频开头讨论这个问题

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第二点

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我想谈谈长期持有的最佳股票

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本质上

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好的

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这家股票未来十年布局堪称完美

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我们将在本视频中详细讲解

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第三个主题就是这支股票

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我们将介绍三只我目前看好的非科技股

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嗯

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第四主题末日论

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正在发生

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我将在本视频中进行排名

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这是我视频中的前五名SaaS股票

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他们谈论的简直是个

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这会是大行情吗

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这会是大行情吗

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宝宝好

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这绝对是个爆款视频

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只求你们一件事

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如果还没做的话

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点个赞吧

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按钮

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狠狠点个赞给我

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希望你能做到这点

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我为你们准备了几个小时的视频

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只需要一点支持就好

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好的

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感谢你们的到来

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请务必订阅

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确保开启所有通知

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好的

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听着

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这是sandisk和micron与p的年度走势图

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五百股

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五百涨

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你们知道eleven涨了11%，u股涨了270

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涨了4%，sandisk惊人

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一千

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涨了150%

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内存市场大获全胜

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没错

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看这只股票mu的表现

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好的

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mu今天股价约400美元

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看这个月的万亿营收趋势

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营收趋势明显向上

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显然呈上升趋势

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但看看

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收入即将发生什么变化

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它要飙升到月球了

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当你看到像MU这样的股票

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看到股票如此大幅上涨对吧

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过去一年几乎增长了三倍

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明白这不是无缘无故的

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因为他们的业务正在爆发式增长

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他们能够掌控的定价能力

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内存价格飙升至顶点，内存整体

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内存需求整体飙升至顶点

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所有AI都在消耗惊人的内存资源

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所以这不会停止

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未来几年需要使用的内存量惊人

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当你看到英伟达未来几年的盈利

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当你看到AMD未来几年的盈利

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必须明白这离不开内存

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这是这些产品的核心需求

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仔细观察美光的净利率和毛利率趋势

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这还没结束

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在回落前还会更高

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关于净利率我可以告诉你

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毛利率

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这一趋势将持续相当长时间

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好的

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此外这显示我们正在关注千倍增长的股票

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Com

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顺便说一句

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查看过去十二个月每股收益

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这就是目前的情况

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几个季度以来增长惊人

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但这还只是

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与未来十二个月的盈利压力相比根本不值一提

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本质上

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对于MU整体将产生天壤之别

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没错

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运营现金流

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这就是美光当前的运营现金流状况

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想象一年后这个数字会怎样

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凭借美光的需求

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凭借他们能掌控的定价

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天啊

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而这里

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女士们先生们

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陪审团的女士们先生们

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所有这一切最 amazing 的一点

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我刚才展示了内存需求

248
00:07:24,629 --> 00:07:25,430
疯狂增长

249
00:07:25,430 --> 00:07:26,709
价格疯狂上涨

250
00:07:26,709 --> 00:07:28,350
收入疯狂飙升

251
00:07:28,350 --> 00:07:30,009
净利润率正在急剧上升

252
00:07:30,009 --> 00:07:31,589
毛利率正在急剧上升

253
00:07:31,589 --> 00:07:33,329
每股收益正在急剧上升

254
00:07:33,329 --> 00:07:36,730
这看起来像是完美股票中的理想场景

255
00:07:36,730 --> 00:07:39,709
没有内存技术就不可能有这场AI浪潮

256
00:07:39,709 --> 00:07:40,970
没错，同时要记住

257
00:07:40,970 --> 00:07:43,470
世界上只有少数几家主要内存公司

258
00:07:43,470 --> 00:07:43,990
没错

259
00:07:43,990 --> 00:07:48,050
但这个故事最精彩的部分在于

260
00:07:48,490 --> 00:07:53,480
迈克龙的市盈率前向估值低于十倍

261
00:07:53,480 --> 00:07:55,879
你看这数据简直不敢相信

262
00:07:55,879 --> 00:07:58,110
这怎么可能呢

263
00:07:58,110 --> 00:08:00,389
这家公司的业务正在疯狂增长

264
00:08:00,389 --> 00:08:03,470
未来几年的数字将会非常惊人

265
00:08:03,470 --> 00:08:05,490
这家公司为何估值只有福特水平

266
00:08:05,490 --> 00:08:06,408
市盈率仅十倍

267
00:08:06,408 --> 00:08:10,449
你以为应该三十、五十、七十、九十甚至更高

268
00:08:10,449 --> 00:08:12,449
市盈率远高于十倍

269
00:08:12,449 --> 00:08:14,439
没错，但

270
00:08:14,439 --> 00:08:15,560
事情是这样的

271
00:08:15,560 --> 00:08:16,300
好的

272
00:08:16,300 --> 00:08:20,430
我们知道今年每股收益将飙升

273
00:08:20,430 --> 00:08:23,290
我们预计2027年还将再创新高

274
00:08:23,290 --> 00:08:27,120
没错，而且2028年可能继续上涨

275
00:08:27,480 --> 00:08:28,730
但问题在于

276
00:08:28,730 --> 00:08:31,769
2028年可能出现重大回调

277
00:08:31,769 --> 00:08:32,769
可能在2027年出现

278
00:08:32,769 --> 00:08:34,909
但我认为2027年仍将有不错增长

279
00:08:34,909 --> 00:08:36,889
2026年的涨幅会大幅收窄

280
00:08:36,889 --> 00:08:37,849
请记住这一点

281
00:08:37,849 --> 00:08:39,729
但增长势头将逐渐放缓

282
00:08:39,729 --> 00:08:41,048
肯定在2028年

283
00:08:41,048 --> 00:08:41,769
在我看来

284
00:08:41,769 --> 00:08:43,208
那么你应该问自己

285
00:08:43,208 --> 00:08:45,539
之后会发生什么

286
00:08:46,779 --> 00:08:49,159
内存芯片公司的走势如何

287
00:08:49,159 --> 00:08:52,309
它们经历繁荣与萧条的周期

288
00:08:52,309 --> 00:08:55,720
先是衰退再繁荣，再繁荣再衰退

289
00:08:55,720 --> 00:08:58,500
如此循环往复

290
00:08:58,500 --> 00:08:59,799
我现在展示给你看

291
00:08:59,799 --> 00:09:03,399
迈克龙历年来的季度每股收益数据

292
00:09:03,399 --> 00:09:04,080
好的

293
00:09:04,080 --> 00:09:06,940
这些数据可追溯到大约2011年

294
00:09:06,940 --> 00:09:08,340
我们可以回溯更久

295
00:09:08,340 --> 00:09:10,019
这基本是十五年的走势图

296
00:09:10,019 --> 00:09:13,320
所以MU在此经历完整的行业衰退周期

297
00:09:13,320 --> 00:09:14,519
关于内存需求方面

298
00:09:14,519 --> 00:09:16,049
随后进入繁荣周期

299
00:09:16,049 --> 00:09:17,710
接着是萧条周期

300
00:09:17,710 --> 00:09:19,870
然后迎来疯狂的繁荣周期

301
00:09:19,870 --> 00:09:22,779
猜猜接下来会发生什么，一个巨大的繁荣周期

302
00:09:22,779 --> 00:09:23,779
然后紧接着就是

303
00:09:23,779 --> 00:09:25,480
我想接下来会发生一个大繁荣周期

304
00:09:25,480 --> 00:09:28,019
随后猜猜接下来是什么，一个巨大的繁荣周期

305
00:09:28,019 --> 00:09:33,799
随后猜猜我们现在正处于一个巨大的繁荣周期

306
00:09:33,799 --> 00:09:35,399
我们不仅处于繁荣周期中

307
00:09:35,399 --> 00:09:36,899
这是有史以来最大的繁荣周期

308
00:09:36,899 --> 00:09:40,960
兆元科技在其商业模式历史上从未见过如此规模

309
00:09:40,960 --> 00:09:41,480
没错

310
00:09:41,480 --> 00:09:44,860
这也是为什么股价远高于以往水平

311
00:09:44,860 --> 00:09:45,379
没错

312
00:09:45,379 --> 00:09:47,990
我们正处于繁荣周期

313
00:09:47,990 --> 00:09:49,389
我们将持续处于这个繁荣周期

314
00:09:49,389 --> 00:09:52,190
接下来几年的数据将会非常惊人

315
00:09:52,190 --> 00:09:52,710
没错

316
00:09:52,710 --> 00:09:55,429
你觉得接下来会发生什么

317
00:09:57,120 --> 00:09:58,320
我要走出去亲身经历

318
00:09:58,320 --> 00:10:00,440
几年后我要说

319
00:10:00,440 --> 00:10:01,879
将会出现一个巨大的繁荣周期

320
00:10:03,120 --> 00:10:04,179
女士们先生们

321
00:10:04,179 --> 00:10:08,409
这就是人们不愿为兆元股票支付溢价的原因

322
00:10:08,409 --> 00:10:10,769
这就是为什么它市盈率只有十倍

323
00:10:10,769 --> 00:10:12,169
因为所有人都明白

324
00:10:12,169 --> 00:10:12,649
是的

325
00:10:12,649 --> 00:10:15,590
这家公司今年将迎来非凡的一年

326
00:10:15,590 --> 00:10:17,789
明年也将是非凡的一年

327
00:10:17,789 --> 00:10:19,669
然后到2028年情况会逐渐平稳

328
00:10:19,669 --> 00:10:23,700
接下来猜猜会发生什么，很可能迎来重大繁荣周期

329
00:10:23,860 --> 00:10:26,960
而这次衰退可能比以往更大

330
00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:32,149
因为这次繁荣周期规模更大、更戏剧化

331
00:10:32,149 --> 00:10:32,710
没错

332
00:10:32,710 --> 00:10:34,289
这是需要记住的

333
00:10:34,289 --> 00:10:35,019
现在

334
00:10:35,019 --> 00:10:36,200
有些人会说

335
00:10:36,200 --> 00:10:36,580
好吧

336
00:10:36,580 --> 00:10:36,980
你知道的

337
00:10:36,980 --> 00:10:39,779
这些内存芯片公司可能会辩称

338
00:10:39,779 --> 00:10:41,779
我们不会经历另一个繁荣周期

339
00:10:41,779 --> 00:10:44,049
绝不可能发生

340
00:10:44,049 --> 00:10:45,750
商业模式已彻底改变

341
00:10:45,750 --> 00:10:48,169
只看眼前

342
00:10:48,169 --> 00:10:48,960
没错

343
00:10:48,960 --> 00:10:50,320
我完全不认同这个观点

344
00:10:50,320 --> 00:10:51,559
我不相信

345
00:10:51,559 --> 00:10:54,039
我根本不相信

346
00:10:55,190 --> 00:10:58,610
这就是这个行业本身

347
00:10:58,610 --> 00:11:00,179
而且

348
00:11:01,419 --> 00:11:03,460
人工智能需求将永远存在

349
00:11:03,460 --> 00:11:04,240
没错

350
00:11:04,240 --> 00:11:06,299
内存需求将持续存在

351
00:11:06,299 --> 00:11:08,480
但这并不意味着你不会经历周期性波动

352
00:11:08,480 --> 00:11:12,409
如果我展示过去十五年的内存需求数据

353
00:11:12,409 --> 00:11:15,220
猜猜右边的趋势是什么

354
00:11:15,220 --> 00:11:17,659
我根本不在乎你用什么

355
00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:19,318
我不关心你是否在和电脑交流

356
00:11:19,318 --> 00:11:20,798
我不在意你是否在用手机

357
00:11:20,798 --> 00:11:22,899
我不关心你是否在玩游戏机

358
00:11:22,899 --> 00:11:25,578
我不在意你是否在和冰箱对话

359
00:11:25,899 --> 00:11:28,538
现在一切都显得在大量使用内存

360
00:11:28,538 --> 00:11:31,690
远超历史任何时期的内存需求

361
00:11:31,690 --> 00:11:33,669
尽管内存需求持续增长

362
00:11:33,669 --> 00:11:35,070
只是越来越高越来越高

363
00:11:35,070 --> 00:11:37,169
看看Micron这些年的情况

364
00:11:37,169 --> 00:11:39,990
反复经历巨大的繁荣与萧条周期

365
00:11:39,990 --> 00:11:42,789
所以有人可能会说

366
00:11:42,789 --> 00:11:45,659
未来十年的内存需求

367
00:11:45,659 --> 00:11:47,279
二十年后只会继续攀升

368
00:11:47,279 --> 00:11:48,179
因为人工智能的发展

369
00:11:48,179 --> 00:11:50,578
以及所有电子设备的需求

370
00:11:50,578 --> 00:11:52,778
但这并不意味着你不会经历周期性波动

371
00:11:52,778 --> 00:11:57,298
过去三十年四十年五十年一直在上涨

372
00:11:57,298 --> 00:11:58,239
到了这个时间节点

373
00:11:58,239 --> 00:12:00,239
但你仍会经历这些繁荣与衰退周期

374
00:12:00,239 --> 00:12:04,220
这就是需要记住的关键点

375
00:12:04,220 --> 00:12:07,679
关于Micron的另一风险是

376
00:12:07,679 --> 00:12:10,620
他们已彻底放弃消费业务

377
00:12:10,620 --> 00:12:11,480
目前时间节点上

378
00:12:11,480 --> 00:12:12,649
他们基本上

379
00:12:12,649 --> 00:12:13,269
呃

380
00:12:13,269 --> 00:12:15,090
押注全部资源在

381
00:12:15,090 --> 00:12:15,929
你知道的

382
00:12:15,929 --> 00:12:17,210
这些大客户身上

383
00:12:17,210 --> 00:12:19,750
像AI公司之类的

384
00:12:19,750 --> 00:12:25,580
而三星、SK海力士通过保留消费市场作为缓冲

385
00:12:25,580 --> 00:12:27,379
如果AI需求突然放缓

386
00:12:27,379 --> 00:12:28,559
在2028年

387
00:12:28,559 --> 00:12:32,279
他们仍有数百万游戏玩家和笔记本厂商可售

388
00:12:32,279 --> 00:12:33,600
Micron将无路可退

389
00:12:33,600 --> 00:12:37,080
所以关于Micron的特殊情况

390
00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,889
在我看来Micron的现状

391
00:12:39,889 --> 00:12:42,070
以及我对SanDisk的看法

392
00:12:42,070 --> 00:12:42,889
好的

393
00:12:42,889 --> 00:12:44,929
它们看起来不像泡沫

394
00:12:44,929 --> 00:12:47,330
我不会不会不会不会

395
00:12:47,330 --> 00:12:47,840
不

396
00:12:47,840 --> 00:12:48,519
人们常说

397
00:12:48,519 --> 00:12:48,679
哦

398
00:12:48,679 --> 00:12:49,580
这些都是巨大泡沫

399
00:12:49,580 --> 00:12:51,320
因为股价会飙升

400
00:12:51,320 --> 00:12:52,730
它们并非巨大泡沫

401
00:12:52,730 --> 00:12:54,649
我会告诉你它们到底是什么

402
00:12:54,649 --> 00:12:56,710
它们是价值陷阱

403
00:12:56,710 --> 00:12:58,210
价值陷阱是一种股票

404
00:12:58,210 --> 00:12:59,789
属于一家公司

405
00:12:59,789 --> 00:13:00,490
一家优秀公司

406
00:13:00,490 --> 00:13:01,429
非常知名

407
00:13:01,429 --> 00:13:04,110
很多时候它们的产品基于需求

408
00:13:04,110 --> 00:13:08,570
却能产生惊人的现金流

409
00:13:08,570 --> 00:13:09,789
惊人利润

410
00:13:09,789 --> 00:13:12,470
但最终这只股票毫无表现

411
00:13:12,470 --> 00:13:15,470
因为未来会遇到麻烦

412
00:13:15,470 --> 00:13:17,529
所以人们不愿高价买入

413
00:13:17,529 --> 00:13:19,589
因此股价被低估

414
00:13:19,589 --> 00:13:20,528
你会觉得

415
00:13:20,528 --> 00:13:21,869
这绝对是最佳交易

416
00:13:21,869 --> 00:13:23,210
看看公司的增长

417
00:13:23,210 --> 00:13:25,009
看看公司的市盈率

418
00:13:25,009 --> 00:13:26,470
这简直太棒了

419
00:13:26,470 --> 00:13:29,409
我刚找到全球最完美的股票

420
00:13:29,409 --> 00:13:33,700
结果你陷入的重大价值陷阱

421
00:13:33,700 --> 00:13:37,919
过去几年我遇到的典型案例

422
00:13:37,919 --> 00:13:39,259
堪称巨大价值陷阱

423
00:13:39,259 --> 00:13:40,019
完美案例

424
00:13:40,019 --> 00:13:40,899
给你举个股票例子

425
00:13:40,899 --> 00:13:43,070
你知道就是PayPal

426
00:13:43,070 --> 00:13:44,470
也就是PayPal

427
00:13:44,470 --> 00:13:47,429
PayPal过去几年是巨大价值陷阱

428
00:13:47,429 --> 00:13:48,789
作为投资者的我

429
00:13:48,789 --> 00:13:52,029
这家公司营收增长

430
00:13:52,029 --> 00:13:53,049
一直稳步上升

431
00:13:53,049 --> 00:13:54,289
看看盈利能力

432
00:13:54,289 --> 00:13:57,559
最终看市盈率如此之低

433
00:13:57,559 --> 00:13:59,700
这对股价有意义吗？没有

434
00:13:59,700 --> 00:14:01,220
堪称巨大价值陷阱

435
00:14:01,220 --> 00:14:01,740
没错

436
00:14:01,740 --> 00:14:03,799
人们不愿为这家公司高价

437
00:14:03,799 --> 00:14:04,519
因为他们观察到

438
00:14:04,519 --> 00:14:06,578
却说不买

439
00:14:06,578 --> 00:14:08,038
实际增长极低

440
00:14:08,038 --> 00:14:10,859
所以微芯科技这段时间

441
00:14:10,859 --> 00:14:11,899
处于繁荣期

442
00:14:11,899 --> 00:14:14,259
未来两三年仍会繁荣

443
00:14:14,259 --> 00:14:15,659
随后迎来衰退

444
00:14:15,659 --> 00:14:17,799
没错，人们不愿

445
00:14:17,799 --> 00:14:18,639
不愿

446
00:14:18,639 --> 00:14:19,620
你知道的

447
00:14:19,620 --> 00:14:22,019
大幅抬高股价

448
00:14:22,019 --> 00:14:24,639
这种有周期波动的公司

449
00:14:24,639 --> 00:14:26,799
几年后我们就能看到

450
00:14:26,799 --> 00:14:27,919
本质上没有

451
00:14:27,919 --> 00:14:29,019
有些人可能会说

452
00:14:29,019 --> 00:14:29,419
哦

453
00:14:29,419 --> 00:14:29,720
你知道的

454
00:14:29,720 --> 00:14:30,159
我想买

455
00:14:30,159 --> 00:14:31,980
在这样的股票上买入看跌期权

456
00:14:31,980 --> 00:14:33,620
不明智

457
00:14:33,980 --> 00:14:35,379
风险极高

458
00:14:35,379 --> 00:14:36,980
不在微芯科技上

459
00:14:36,980 --> 00:14:37,980
听着

460
00:14:37,980 --> 00:14:39,340
这里有一家好公司

461
00:14:39,340 --> 00:14:42,279
至少未来两年都会盈利

462
00:14:42,279 --> 00:14:46,789
2026和2027年对微芯科技将是非凡之年

463
00:14:46,789 --> 00:14:50,240
你绝不能挡在前面

464
00:14:50,240 --> 00:14:53,419
而当前市盈率仅十倍左右

465
00:14:53,419 --> 00:14:54,259
我没事

466
00:14:54,259 --> 00:14:56,190
这不是明智之举

467
00:14:56,190 --> 00:14:59,809
或许你能运气好买到看跌期权

468
00:14:59,809 --> 00:15:00,389
你知道的

469
00:15:00,389 --> 00:15:02,429
股票短期下跌或类似情况

470
00:15:02,429 --> 00:15:05,750
但我觉得这里更有更好的机会

471
00:15:05,750 --> 00:15:07,330
如果你要做空股票

472
00:15:07,330 --> 00:15:08,929
你要做空的股票

473
00:15:08,929 --> 00:15:11,309
你知道的没有财报支撑

474
00:15:11,309 --> 00:15:13,549
或估值已严重透支

475
00:15:13,549 --> 00:15:16,580
微芯科技财报强劲

476
00:15:16,580 --> 00:15:17,340
天啊

477
00:15:17,340 --> 00:15:18,440
他们财报充足

478
00:15:18,440 --> 00:15:21,159
未来几年该公司财报毫无压力

479
00:15:21,159 --> 00:15:23,450
没错且市盈率极低

480
00:15:24,529 --> 00:15:26,750
买入这只股票的看跌期权

481
00:15:26,750 --> 00:15:27,970
绝非明智选择

482
00:15:27,970 --> 00:15:29,480
这绝对不明智

483
00:15:29,480 --> 00:15:31,740
尽管股价大幅上涨

484
00:15:31,740 --> 00:15:34,080
无需做空它

485
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,559
或许未来某个时期做空微芯科技合理

486
00:15:37,559 --> 00:15:38,879
但现在不做

487
00:15:38,879 --> 00:15:39,860
绝不

488
00:15:39,860 --> 00:15:40,639
赶紧离场

489
00:15:40,639 --> 00:15:42,080
现在就是货运列车

490
00:15:42,080 --> 00:15:43,720
今日收盘时

491
00:15:43,720 --> 00:15:44,779
微芯科技股票

492
00:15:44,779 --> 00:15:45,539
依我之见

493
00:15:45,539 --> 00:15:47,960
未来几年股价走势如何

494
00:15:47,960 --> 00:15:48,980
将停滞不前

495
00:15:48,980 --> 00:15:51,519
我认为未来几年股价将停滞

496
00:15:51,519 --> 00:15:55,240
将在300至500美元之间震荡

497
00:15:55,240 --> 00:15:55,799
每股

498
00:15:55,799 --> 00:15:56,840
市场看涨情绪浓厚

499
00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:58,669
会被推高至500左右

500
00:15:58,669 --> 00:15:59,889
他们感到尴尬

501
00:15:59,889 --> 00:16:01,250
他们会把它压低到

502
00:16:01,250 --> 00:16:01,629
或者

503
00:16:01,629 --> 00:16:02,029
你知道的

504
00:16:02,029 --> 00:16:03,590
下调至三百区间

505
00:16:03,590 --> 00:16:05,389
对吧，嗯

506
00:16:05,389 --> 00:16:08,330
我觉得这将是未来多年的走势

507
00:16:08,330 --> 00:16:10,840
所以任何押注这个

508
00:16:10,840 --> 00:16:11,059
哦

509
00:16:11,059 --> 00:16:13,059
股票接下来几年会崩盘

510
00:16:13,059 --> 00:16:14,500
跌到一百五十

511
00:16:14,500 --> 00:16:15,919
我觉得这不太现实

512
00:16:15,919 --> 00:16:19,379
现实点，人们都认为这些股票未来几年会涨到一千

513
00:16:19,379 --> 00:16:20,990
我也觉得这不现实

514
00:16:20,990 --> 00:16:23,879
我认为这只股票会长期盘整

515
00:16:23,879 --> 00:16:24,820
这是我的个人观点

516
00:16:24,820 --> 00:16:25,740
我可能在这方面错了

517
00:16:25,740 --> 00:16:28,539
但别惊讶如果年复一年过去

518
00:16:28,539 --> 00:16:28,940
然后是

519
00:16:28,940 --> 00:16:29,139
哦

520
00:16:29,139 --> 00:16:32,240
现在微芯仍在三百到五百左右区间

521
00:16:32,240 --> 00:16:33,240
我们拭目以待

522
00:16:33,240 --> 00:16:36,240
这就是我对这件事的预测

523
00:16:36,240 --> 00:16:36,659
好的

524
00:16:36,659 --> 00:16:37,828
这里有点混乱

525
00:16:37,828 --> 00:16:40,328
终极长期买入股票

526
00:16:40,328 --> 00:16:43,168
然后我们进入三只非科技股

527
00:16:43,168 --> 00:16:44,349
在SaaS末日中

528
00:16:44,349 --> 00:16:47,049
我将按顺序列出我的前五名

529
00:16:47,049 --> 00:16:49,129
这些是最佳投资标的

530
00:16:49,129 --> 00:16:51,490
在进入下方置顶评论前

531
00:16:51,490 --> 00:16:53,159
如果你想加入专属私密群组

532
00:16:53,159 --> 00:16:55,320
获取所有课程大纲

533
00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:57,679
加入我们后你将获得三大核心内容

534
00:16:57,679 --> 00:16:59,940
这个三千人专属社群

535
00:16:59,940 --> 00:17:03,458
你将获得我所有精品课程的教育资源

536
00:17:03,458 --> 00:17:04,499
成为股市大师

537
00:17:04,499 --> 00:17:05,500
百万富翁指南

538
00:17:05,500 --> 00:17:06,180
股票期权

539
00:17:06,180 --> 00:17:06,619
精通课程

540
00:17:06,619 --> 00:17:07,579
股息投资精通

541
00:17:07,579 --> 00:17:08,700
财务报表精通

542
00:17:08,700 --> 00:17:10,420
杰里米估值法精通

543
00:17:10,420 --> 00:17:11,929
这是第一部分

544
00:17:11,929 --> 00:17:14,848
第二部分是我们的Discord聊天室和社群

545
00:17:14,848 --> 00:17:16,799
拥有三千名成员

546
00:17:16,799 --> 00:17:18,640
许多成员投资组合已实现

547
00:17:18,640 --> 00:17:20,000
六位数收益

548
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:20,539
七位数

549
00:17:20,539 --> 00:17:21,660
八位数投资者

550
00:17:21,660 --> 00:17:22,059
好的

551
00:17:22,059 --> 00:17:25,950
当你获得私密群组访问权限时，第三个组成部分

552
00:17:25,950 --> 00:17:27,490
你将获得我的高级软件使用权

553
00:17:27,490 --> 00:17:28,589
Thousand x stocks dot com

554
00:17:28,589 --> 00:17:31,109
我每日用于公司预测和股票走势分析

555
00:17:31,109 --> 00:17:32,859
并观察这些股票的长期走势

556
00:17:32,859 --> 00:17:33,660
仔细研究

557
00:17:33,660 --> 00:17:34,220
做研究

558
00:17:34,220 --> 00:17:34,980
所有这些优质内容

559
00:17:34,980 --> 00:17:35,319
好的

560
00:17:35,319 --> 00:17:36,680
你还将获得其他功能

561
00:17:36,680 --> 00:17:39,619
比如每周查看我的操作动向和独家周报视频

562
00:17:39,619 --> 00:17:40,740
同样优质的内容

563
00:17:40,740 --> 00:17:42,559
但这三个核心部分

564
00:17:42,559 --> 00:17:43,619
教育内容

565
00:17:43,619 --> 00:17:46,119
社群支持和高级软件

566
00:17:46,119 --> 00:17:46,460
好的

567
00:17:46,460 --> 00:17:47,180
这将被置顶

568
00:17:47,180 --> 00:17:47,740
在下方评论

569
00:17:47,740 --> 00:17:48,640
点击填写表单

570
00:17:48,640 --> 00:17:51,400
本周或下周即可获取访问权限

571
00:17:51,400 --> 00:17:51,989
好的

572
00:17:51,989 --> 00:17:55,079
长期必买的终极股票

573
00:17:55,279 --> 00:17:58,099
毫无疑问是亚马逊

574
00:17:58,099 --> 00:18:00,319
这是一家股票

575
00:18:00,319 --> 00:18:00,799
好的

576
00:18:00,799 --> 00:18:03,440
只需理解亚马逊

577
00:18:03,440 --> 00:18:06,579
不要因短期波动过度担忧

578
00:18:06,579 --> 00:18:07,119
好的

579
00:18:07,119 --> 00:18:09,230
他们现在投入巨大

580
00:18:09,230 --> 00:18:11,750
这种折旧将在未来几年显现

581
00:18:11,750 --> 00:18:14,930
将有关于AWS的质疑

582
00:18:14,930 --> 00:18:16,769
如果他们持续大量投入

583
00:18:16,769 --> 00:18:19,230
这将极大助力AWS

584
00:18:19,230 --> 00:18:20,859
增长速度等各方面

585
00:18:20,859 --> 00:18:22,339
但我已对此进行了验证

586
00:18:22,339 --> 00:18:22,720
好的

587
00:18:22,720 --> 00:18:26,740
亚马逊股票长期回报率达164000%

588
00:18:26,740 --> 00:18:27,660
长期来看

589
00:18:27,660 --> 00:18:28,440
难以置信

590
00:18:28,440 --> 00:18:32,549
但在这段时间里

591
00:18:32,549 --> 00:18:33,490
三十年左右

592
00:18:33,490 --> 00:18:35,630
自公司上市以来

593
00:18:35,630 --> 00:18:38,869
股票曾多次大幅下跌

594
00:18:38,869 --> 00:18:41,109
或长时间无明显表现

595
00:18:41,109 --> 00:18:42,309
可能持续数月

596
00:18:42,309 --> 00:18:43,450
甚至数年

597
00:18:43,450 --> 00:18:44,109
没错

598
00:18:44,109 --> 00:18:46,029
股价可能下跌且停滞不前

599
00:18:46,029 --> 00:18:47,329
陷入无序状态

600
00:18:47,329 --> 00:18:49,369
现在我们正处于这样的阶段

601
00:18:49,369 --> 00:18:50,970
当股票处于无人地带时

602
00:18:50,970 --> 00:18:55,680
在这些情况发生的原因中通常有两个主要原因

603
00:18:55,680 --> 00:19:00,710
一个是他们必须经历一个重大投资期，华尔街曾对此表示反对

604
00:19:00,710 --> 00:19:01,950
投资者们也进行了反击

605
00:19:01,950 --> 00:19:02,349
比如

606
00:19:02,349 --> 00:19:05,579
天啊，亚马逊即将投入巨额资金

607
00:19:05,579 --> 00:19:07,380
你知道这是整个公司的后盾

608
00:19:07,380 --> 00:19:07,859
没错

609
00:19:07,859 --> 00:19:13,329
第二个原因是增长速度可能低于人们的预期

610
00:19:13,329 --> 00:19:15,849
这其中部分原因与科技泡沫破裂有关

611
00:19:15,849 --> 00:19:17,009
也可以从估值角度分析

612
00:19:17,009 --> 00:19:21,390
但增长速度远不如部分人预期的那么惊人

613
00:19:21,390 --> 00:19:24,289
甚至在金融危机期间也是如此

614
00:19:24,289 --> 00:19:27,740
没错，这就是可能发生的主要两种情况

615
00:19:27,740 --> 00:19:33,839
这些因素可能使亚马逊股价下跌或长期保持平稳

616
00:19:34,200 --> 00:19:39,880
如果亚马逊不是无故投入这么多资金的话

617
00:19:39,880 --> 00:19:41,799
请稍作思考

618
00:19:42,789 --> 00:19:43,750
亚马逊宣布将出击

619
00:19:43,750 --> 00:19:47,190
每年投入2000亿美元用于资本支出

620
00:19:47,190 --> 00:19:50,630
其中大部分用于AWS业务

621
00:19:50,869 --> 00:19:51,930
他们并未停止这样做

622
00:19:51,930 --> 00:19:52,789
仅仅为了这样做

623
00:19:52,789 --> 00:19:53,309
好的

624
00:19:53,309 --> 00:19:54,609
他们很可能在这样做

625
00:19:54,609 --> 00:20:00,138
因为他们相信这能显著加速AWS增长

626
00:20:00,138 --> 00:20:03,118
并为AWS未来十年布局

627
00:20:03,118 --> 00:20:04,479
甚至可能长达二十年

628
00:20:04,479 --> 00:20:06,459
现在正是主要增长期

629
00:20:06,459 --> 00:20:09,269
目前我们看到的是AWS

630
00:20:09,269 --> 00:20:10,689
增长正在加速

631
00:20:10,689 --> 00:20:11,108
好的

632
00:20:11,108 --> 00:20:12,970
我想我们上季度已经推动了这一点

633
00:20:12,970 --> 00:20:13,970
请勿引用

634
00:20:13,970 --> 00:20:17,769
但我认为我们可能达到中等二十个百分点

635
00:20:17,769 --> 00:20:19,429
低至中等二十个百分点

636
00:20:19,429 --> 00:20:20,028
嗯

637
00:20:20,028 --> 00:20:21,960
AWS的增长率

638
00:20:26,400 --> 00:20:27,039
好的

639
00:20:27,039 --> 00:20:32,170
我认为亚马逊大量投入资金的原因

640
00:20:32,170 --> 00:20:33,250
关键在于

641
00:20:33,250 --> 00:20:38,589
我相信他们认为AWS业务未来十年可能实现20%的年复合增长率

642
00:20:38,589 --> 00:20:41,200
这或许不会实现

643
00:20:41,200 --> 00:20:41,660
但

644
00:20:41,660 --> 00:20:42,220
假设

645
00:20:42,220 --> 00:20:43,500
假设他们能做到

646
00:20:43,500 --> 00:20:44,119
假设

647
00:20:44,119 --> 00:20:47,960
他们能在未来十年实现AWS业务20%的年复合增长率

648
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:51,160
在AWS业务上

649
00:20:51,160 --> 00:20:52,180
基本上就是这样

650
00:20:52,180 --> 00:20:52,799
嗯

651
00:20:52,799 --> 00:20:57,460
猜猜他们要发展成年收入万亿的业务

652
00:20:57,460 --> 00:20:59,200
如果他们能做到的话

653
00:20:59,200 --> 00:21:00,319
好的

654
00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,119
现在年收入接近万亿了

655
00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:06,599
假设这不可行

656
00:21:06,599 --> 00:21:08,638
假设不是那样

657
00:21:08,638 --> 00:21:09,278
假设

658
00:21:09,278 --> 00:21:13,878
也许未来几年在AI浪潮中会有高速增长

659
00:21:13,878 --> 00:21:17,329
假设他们以30%的速度增长

660
00:21:17,329 --> 00:21:20,230
中期20%左右完全可行

661
00:21:20,230 --> 00:21:24,549
中期20%到可能30%的增速

662
00:21:24,549 --> 00:21:27,420
但假设整个AI浪潮之后

663
00:21:27,420 --> 00:21:28,900
假设增速放缓

664
00:21:28,900 --> 00:21:32,099
开始进入10-15%的区间

665
00:21:32,099 --> 00:21:36,450
所以假设他们长期实现15%的增长

666
00:21:36,450 --> 00:21:39,230
这家公司最终可能达到2350亿美元

667
00:21:39,230 --> 00:21:40,690
年收入5000亿美元

668
00:21:40,690 --> 00:21:41,950
年收入

669
00:21:41,950 --> 00:21:43,430
好的

670
00:21:44,069 --> 00:21:45,109
2036年

671
00:21:45,109 --> 00:21:49,769
十年后我们将谈论年收入6000亿美元的业务

672
00:21:49,769 --> 00:21:52,289
年收入

673
00:21:52,289 --> 00:21:52,910
好的

674
00:21:52,910 --> 00:21:54,430
这简直令人难以置信

675
00:21:54,430 --> 00:21:56,369
我认为这非常可行

676
00:21:56,369 --> 00:21:57,890
我的看法是

677
00:21:57,890 --> 00:22:00,400
我相信亚马逊

678
00:22:00,839 --> 00:22:02,200
这是我的观点

679
00:22:02,200 --> 00:22:03,660
我相信亚马逊

680
00:22:03,660 --> 00:22:08,619
认为他们能将AWS业务扩展到6000亿美元

681
00:22:08,619 --> 00:22:12,179
在十年内成为年收入万亿的业务

682
00:22:12,179 --> 00:22:13,999
这就是我对他们的看法

683
00:22:13,999 --> 00:22:15,898
这也是他们为何激进投入的原因

684
00:22:15,898 --> 00:22:18,240
所有这一切都开始合理了

685
00:22:18,240 --> 00:22:19,359
他们为何要这么做

686
00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:23,039
因为AWS的利润率非常惊人

687
00:22:23,039 --> 00:22:24,160
目前

688
00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:24,720
请记住

689
00:22:24,720 --> 00:22:27,099
他们并非唯一投入者，微软也在大力投入

690
00:22:27,099 --> 00:22:29,200
谷歌同样在大幅投入

691
00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,079
我相信这些公司都认为业务会快速增长

692
00:22:32,079 --> 00:22:34,039
实际上增长速度非常 impressive

693
00:22:34,039 --> 00:22:34,640
Azure

694
00:22:34,640 --> 00:22:36,990
微软的产品上季度

695
00:22:36,990 --> 00:22:40,709
我相信增长约38%左右

696
00:22:40,709 --> 00:22:43,888
谷歌云业务目前蓬勃发展

697
00:22:43,888 --> 00:22:46,588
现在绝对处于爆发期

698
00:22:46,588 --> 00:22:48,490
所以说

699
00:22:48,490 --> 00:22:48,910
哦

700
00:22:48,910 --> 00:22:52,710
在未来几年内，这个空间里有足够的资金可供分配

701
00:22:52,710 --> 00:22:54,859
对于这些公司而言

702
00:22:54,859 --> 00:22:55,859
利润因素

703
00:22:55,859 --> 00:22:56,720
说到AWS

704
00:22:56,720 --> 00:22:57,559
AWS

705
00:22:57,559 --> 00:22:59,519
营业利润率约为35%

706
00:22:59,519 --> 00:23:01,058
请记住这可能会上升

707
00:23:01,058 --> 00:23:03,979
如果竞争环境加剧，也可能下降

708
00:23:03,979 --> 00:23:06,500
但假设他们能保持这个数字不变

709
00:23:06,500 --> 00:23:08,079
在20%的场景下

710
00:23:08,079 --> 00:23:10,200
我在2036年向你展示过

711
00:23:10,200 --> 00:23:15,500
该公司将产生3300亿美元的年营业利润

712
00:23:15,500 --> 00:23:16,519
仅来自AWS业务

713
00:23:16,519 --> 00:23:18,539
S叹了口气

714
00:23:18,779 --> 00:23:20,599
天啊

715
00:23:20,599 --> 00:23:24,740
在更保守的场景中

716
00:23:24,740 --> 00:23:26,019
可以说

717
00:23:26,019 --> 00:23:28,440
公司可能释放2000亿美元

718
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:31,740
或每年2500亿美元的营业利润

719
00:23:31,740 --> 00:23:33,319
仅来自AWS

720
00:23:33,559 --> 00:23:35,339
我们不谈广告业务

721
00:23:35,339 --> 00:23:37,650
我们不谈电商业务

722
00:23:37,650 --> 00:23:40,589
我们不讨论任何未来启动的新业务

723
00:23:40,589 --> 00:23:43,430
或未来收购的业务

724
00:23:43,430 --> 00:23:45,490
我们现在只谈AWS

725
00:23:45,490 --> 00:23:46,769
现在

726
00:23:46,769 --> 00:23:47,390
开始要说

727
00:23:47,390 --> 00:23:47,769
好吧

728
00:23:47,769 --> 00:23:48,529
现在就开枪

729
00:23:48,529 --> 00:23:50,440
我明白他们为何投入这么多

730
00:23:50,440 --> 00:23:54,619
可以每年释放200-3000亿美元营业利润

731
00:23:54,619 --> 00:23:56,680
仅来自该业务单元

732
00:23:57,849 --> 00:23:59,410
这是一笔巨额资金

733
00:23:59,410 --> 00:24:01,319
你正在获得极佳的回报

734
00:24:01,319 --> 00:24:01,680
是的

735
00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:01,960
我的意思是

736
00:24:01,960 --> 00:24:05,579
你可能在谈论今年投入的2000亿美元

737
00:24:05,579 --> 00:24:07,130
你能在

738
00:24:07,130 --> 00:24:08,230
你知道的几个月内

739
00:24:08,230 --> 00:24:10,509
甚至不到一年后

740
00:24:10,509 --> 00:24:11,730
这太惊人了

741
00:24:11,730 --> 00:24:12,940
不

742
00:24:12,940 --> 00:24:15,579
如果我们考虑亚马逊估值的长期走向

743
00:24:15,579 --> 00:24:16,319
长期来看

744
00:24:16,319 --> 00:24:16,880
没错

745
00:24:16,880 --> 00:24:20,539
所以他们拥有AWS业务

746
00:24:20,539 --> 00:24:22,000
这就是核心业务

747
00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:22,740
广告业务

748
00:24:22,740 --> 00:24:23,299
我们应该

749
00:24:23,299 --> 00:24:25,099
你知道这增长非常稳健

750
00:24:25,099 --> 00:24:26,819
接下来这一趋势应该会持续爆发

751
00:24:26,819 --> 00:24:28,009
你知道的，十年时间

752
00:24:28,009 --> 00:24:29,049
零售业务方面

753
00:24:29,049 --> 00:24:31,069
订阅服务可能会继续 booming

754
00:24:31,069 --> 00:24:32,049
随着人们的需求

755
00:24:32,049 --> 00:24:33,369
更多相关产品

756
00:24:33,369 --> 00:24:34,890
基本上我是这样看待亚马逊的

757
00:24:34,890 --> 00:24:38,970
这是一家年营收应达200亿至300亿美元的公司

758
00:24:38,970 --> 00:24:40,150
十年后

759
00:24:40,150 --> 00:24:40,730
好的

760
00:24:40,730 --> 00:24:41,490
他们即将突破

761
00:24:41,490 --> 00:24:43,549
预计营收将达10亿美元

762
00:24:43,549 --> 00:24:45,099
我呃

763
00:24:45,380 --> 00:24:45,940
我是说

764
00:24:45,940 --> 00:24:46,299
抱歉

765
00:24:46,299 --> 00:24:47,579
年营收将达1万亿美元

766
00:24:47,579 --> 00:24:50,259
他们即将突破年营收1万亿美元

767
00:24:50,259 --> 00:24:51,500
这是一万亿美元规模

768
00:24:51,500 --> 00:24:52,019
顺便说一句

769
00:24:52,019 --> 00:24:53,799
他们即将突破年营收1万亿美元

770
00:24:53,799 --> 00:24:56,019
大概两到三年后

771
00:24:56,019 --> 00:24:59,069
在年营收超万亿的情况下

772
00:24:59,069 --> 00:25:04,569
十年后他们应能实现年营收2-3万亿美元

773
00:25:04,569 --> 00:25:06,960
关于这部分

774
00:25:06,960 --> 00:25:10,160
我认为他们能实现约5000亿美元利润

775
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:11,940
大概可能是4000亿美元

776
00:25:11,940 --> 00:25:12,900
可能是5000亿美元

777
00:25:12,900 --> 00:25:14,559
可能是6000亿或7000亿美元

778
00:25:14,559 --> 00:25:18,289
没错，预计年净利润约5000亿美元

779
00:25:18,289 --> 00:25:23,250
对于亚马逊这样的公司来说，这估值可能合理

780
00:25:23,250 --> 00:25:25,309
那时他们仍将持续增长

781
00:25:25,309 --> 00:25:28,559
没错，市值将达万亿美元以上

782
00:25:28,559 --> 00:25:32,210
十年后AI进行了自身估值

783
00:25:32,210 --> 00:25:34,829
他们成长为万亿美元级企业

784
00:25:34,829 --> 00:25:37,690
这就是我对亚马逊未来十年的判断

785
00:25:37,690 --> 00:25:40,990
我们将迎来万亿美元级企业

786
00:25:40,990 --> 00:25:43,650
没错，这些数字听起来很大

787
00:25:43,650 --> 00:25:46,369
因为我们现在还没有万亿美元企业

788
00:25:46,369 --> 00:25:47,730
世界上最大的公司是什么

789
00:25:47,730 --> 00:25:48,829
我认为是英伟达

790
00:25:48,829 --> 00:25:52,670
而英伟达目前市值约4000亿美元

791
00:25:52,670 --> 00:25:53,289
所以说

792
00:25:53,289 --> 00:25:54,150
万亿美元

793
00:25:54,150 --> 00:25:55,029
这数字确实惊人

794
00:25:55,029 --> 00:25:55,750
兄弟

795
00:25:55,750 --> 00:25:57,390
当我进入股市时

796
00:25:57,390 --> 00:25:59,940
我们甚至无法想象万亿公司

797
00:25:59,940 --> 00:26:00,259
现在

798
00:26:00,259 --> 00:26:01,920
我们已有众多万亿公司

799
00:26:01,920 --> 00:26:04,319
现在我们已有万亿级企业

800
00:26:04,319 --> 00:26:05,579
当我第一次进入市场时

801
00:26:05,579 --> 00:26:07,880
零八零九射击

802
00:26:07,880 --> 00:26:10,160
我记得看到像

803
00:26:10,160 --> 00:26:12,660
你知道宝洁和埃克森美孚这样的公司

804
00:26:12,660 --> 00:26:14,299
你知道两百亿美元

805
00:26:14,299 --> 00:26:15,660
三百亿美元市值门槛

806
00:26:15,660 --> 00:26:16,980
这些都是全球最大的市值公司

807
00:26:16,980 --> 00:26:18,219
简直疯狂

808
00:26:18,219 --> 00:26:21,259
我还记得在2010年入职后不久

809
00:26:21,259 --> 00:26:24,230
我记得当时查看苹果股票

810
00:26:24,230 --> 00:26:25,789
你知道苹果当时的股价

811
00:26:25,789 --> 00:26:26,109
天啊

812
00:26:26,109 --> 00:26:27,650
我记不清当时的估值是多少

813
00:26:27,650 --> 00:26:30,329
我觉得大概是五百亿或某个疯狂的

814
00:26:30,329 --> 00:26:32,509
数字六百亿当时

815
00:26:32,509 --> 00:26:33,470
天啊

816
00:26:33,470 --> 00:26:35,130
它们不可能再更大了

817
00:26:35,130 --> 00:26:36,230
这简直不可思议

818
00:26:36,230 --> 00:26:41,049
没错 现在苹果轻松拥有三千亿以上市值

819
00:26:41,049 --> 00:26:41,809
没错

820
00:26:41,809 --> 00:26:44,950
当我们谈论十年后

821
00:26:44,950 --> 00:26:46,170
十万亿市值公司

822
00:26:46,170 --> 00:26:49,960
请理解我不认为亚马逊会是唯一十万亿市值公司

823
00:26:49,960 --> 00:26:50,880
十年后

824
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:55,450
它们可能会成为几家十万亿市值公司之一

825
00:26:55,450 --> 00:26:56,509
这一点需要记住

826
00:26:56,509 --> 00:26:59,369
我认为亚马逊完美体现了为什么

827
00:26:59,369 --> 00:27:00,950
我喜欢股票挑选在

828
00:27:00,950 --> 00:27:02,390
保持长期思维

829
00:27:02,390 --> 00:27:03,019
没错

830
00:27:03,019 --> 00:27:06,700
我喜欢能深入分析亚马逊这类公司并计算数据

831
00:27:06,700 --> 00:27:08,079
运行预测

832
00:27:08,079 --> 00:27:13,390
寻找比标普500更稳妥的投资标的

833
00:27:13,390 --> 00:27:16,930
但可能在未来十年显著超越标普500

834
00:27:16,930 --> 00:27:17,150
没错

835
00:27:17,150 --> 00:27:20,150
这就是亚马逊的完美例子

836
00:27:20,150 --> 00:27:22,529
同样需要长期思维

837
00:27:22,529 --> 00:27:25,900
很容易陷入短期波动

838
00:27:25,900 --> 00:27:26,680
哦

839
00:27:26,680 --> 00:27:28,799
你知道现在人们花了很多钱

840
00:27:28,799 --> 00:27:30,240
这会影响折旧

841
00:27:30,240 --> 00:27:31,900
这些短期因素都很重要

842
00:27:31,900 --> 00:27:32,940
没错

843
00:27:32,940 --> 00:27:34,740
关税会怎样变化

844
00:27:34,740 --> 00:27:36,099
特朗普在做什么

845
00:27:36,099 --> 00:27:37,579
美联储在做什么

846
00:27:37,579 --> 00:27:38,700
等等

847
00:27:38,700 --> 00:27:38,859
没错

848
00:27:38,859 --> 00:27:41,019
短期内经济状况如何

849
00:27:41,019 --> 00:27:43,299
所有这些因素都很重要

850
00:27:43,299 --> 00:27:45,420
但这些都是短期的事情，它们来

851
00:27:45,420 --> 00:27:46,099
然后又离开

852
00:27:46,099 --> 00:27:52,730
而像亚马逊这样的公司却留存下来，亚马逊创立时

853
00:27:54,000 --> 00:27:56,660
比尔·克林顿是美国总统

854
00:27:56,660 --> 00:27:57,539
好的

855
00:27:57,539 --> 00:27:59,199
比尔·克林顿

856
00:27:59,598 --> 00:28:01,579
接着是乔治·布什

857
00:28:01,579 --> 00:28:03,279
然后是奥巴马

858
00:28:03,279 --> 00:28:04,640
之后是特朗普

859
00:28:04,640 --> 00:28:05,859
接着是拜登

860
00:28:05,859 --> 00:28:07,599
然后又是特朗普对吧

861
00:28:07,599 --> 00:28:09,839
所有这些总统来来去去

862
00:28:12,180 --> 00:28:12,980
通缩

863
00:28:12,980 --> 00:28:14,720
通胀来来去去对吧

864
00:28:14,720 --> 00:28:16,380
通常主要是通胀

865
00:28:16,380 --> 00:28:16,980
嗯

866
00:28:16,980 --> 00:28:17,759
好的经济

867
00:28:17,759 --> 00:28:18,680
糟糕的经济

868
00:28:18,680 --> 00:28:21,349
好的经济来来去去对吧

869
00:28:21,349 --> 00:28:24,390
货币政策变化来来去去

870
00:28:24,390 --> 00:28:25,929
加息

871
00:28:25,929 --> 00:28:28,509
降息来去美联储

872
00:28:28,509 --> 00:28:29,808
总统们来来去去

873
00:28:30,929 --> 00:28:32,480
一切都来来去去

874
00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:34,180
这就是你所做的一切

875
00:28:34,180 --> 00:28:36,279
而亚马逊却留存并壮大

876
00:28:36,279 --> 00:28:37,000
更大

877
00:28:37,000 --> 00:28:39,190
更强更强对吧

878
00:28:39,190 --> 00:28:40,650
这就是伟大公司的特点

879
00:28:40,650 --> 00:28:43,809
这也是为何要真正专注长期

880
00:28:43,809 --> 00:28:45,029
因为有很多时候

881
00:28:45,029 --> 00:28:47,069
你可能被亚马逊的短期波动困扰

882
00:28:47,069 --> 00:28:47,470
对吧

883
00:28:47,470 --> 00:28:47,809
哦

884
00:28:47,809 --> 00:28:48,909
他们花了很多钱

885
00:28:48,909 --> 00:28:49,548
嗯

886
00:28:49,548 --> 00:28:50,669
他们在电商基建上投入巨大

887
00:28:50,669 --> 00:28:53,568
看看电商业务还在亏损

888
00:28:53,568 --> 00:28:54,909
为什么他们要花这么多钱像

889
00:28:54,909 --> 00:28:58,490
十多年前曾有很多争论和质疑

890
00:28:58,490 --> 00:28:59,150
对啊

891
00:28:59,150 --> 00:28:59,970
天啊

892
00:28:59,970 --> 00:29:02,470
他们投入这么多在建仓库

893
00:29:02,470 --> 00:29:04,279
采购大量卡车

894
00:29:04,279 --> 00:29:06,220
要自建物流网络

895
00:29:06,220 --> 00:29:06,660
绝无可能

896
00:29:06,660 --> 00:29:07,740
他们能从这赚钱

897
00:29:07,740 --> 00:29:09,759
我们只会收取……

898
00:29:09,759 --> 00:29:11,519
你知道必须得

899
00:29:11,519 --> 00:29:14,460
你必须信任那些管理这些公司的大公司

900
00:29:14,460 --> 00:29:15,500
他们清楚自己的业务

901
00:29:15,500 --> 00:29:18,420
说实话他们的业绩非常出色

902
00:29:18,420 --> 00:29:20,059
正确并不意味着不会犯错

903
00:29:20,059 --> 00:29:21,000
他们确实会犯错

904
00:29:21,000 --> 00:29:22,420
但这不意味着完美无缺

905
00:29:22,420 --> 00:29:23,039
但兄弟

906
00:29:23,039 --> 00:29:24,720
长期来看他们做得相当不错

907
00:29:24,720 --> 00:29:25,039
对吧

908
00:29:25,039 --> 00:29:26,420
要有长期投资思维

909
00:29:26,420 --> 00:29:28,509
努力寻找优质公司

910
00:29:28,509 --> 00:29:29,069
好的

911
00:29:29,069 --> 00:29:29,730
接下来是

912
00:29:29,730 --> 00:29:31,690
这里三个非科技股

913
00:29:31,690 --> 00:29:32,430
我超爱

914
00:29:32,430 --> 00:29:32,869
好的

915
00:29:32,869 --> 00:29:34,750
然后我们进入我的五大SaaS股票

916
00:29:34,750 --> 00:29:35,839
嗯

917
00:29:36,039 --> 00:29:37,720
第一名是Cake

918
00:29:37,720 --> 00:29:38,730
这是股票

919
00:29:38,730 --> 00:29:40,269
我多年来一直看好

920
00:29:40,269 --> 00:29:42,180
如果你虔诚地关注我的频道

921
00:29:42,180 --> 00:29:44,279
你可能多次听到我提到

922
00:29:44,279 --> 00:29:45,940
Cake并出现在三只股票中

923
00:29:45,940 --> 00:29:46,900
我正在买入并持有五只股票

924
00:29:46,900 --> 00:29:49,619
我都在买入相关视频很多

925
00:29:49,619 --> 00:29:50,579
这是一家很棒的公司

926
00:29:50,579 --> 00:29:52,940
目前利润已达七万美元

927
00:29:52,940 --> 00:29:55,019
这还不算所有股息

928
00:29:55,019 --> 00:29:56,200
他们持续支付收益

929
00:29:56,200 --> 00:29:58,759
对的说到芝士蛋糕

930
00:29:58,759 --> 00:30:01,039
他们有自动柜员机即芝士蛋糕工厂

931
00:30:01,039 --> 00:30:02,380
但他们还有北意大利

932
00:30:02,380 --> 00:30:05,500
覆盖全美并在未来十年持续扩张

933
00:30:05,500 --> 00:30:08,440
花之子品牌将在全美扩展

934
00:30:08,440 --> 00:30:09,559
未来十年继续发展

935
00:30:09,559 --> 00:30:12,980
他们还有更多概念即将推出

936
00:30:12,980 --> 00:30:13,730
本质上

937
00:30:13,730 --> 00:30:18,079
Cake就是以核心业务驱动的增长引擎

938
00:30:18,079 --> 00:30:19,759
核心业务是芝士蛋糕工厂

939
00:30:19,759 --> 00:30:21,720
绝对的盈利机器

940
00:30:21,720 --> 00:30:25,480
对然后还有诸多增长概念加持

941
00:30:25,480 --> 00:30:26,170
所以

942
00:30:26,170 --> 00:30:27,990
我认为这是最完美的

943
00:30:27,990 --> 00:30:31,009
我认为这是我见过最完美的餐厅股

944
00:30:31,009 --> 00:30:34,039
我从未见过这样的餐厅股

945
00:30:34,039 --> 00:30:38,660
核心业务就像自动柜员机

946
00:30:38,660 --> 00:30:41,819
背后有大量增长概念支撑

947
00:30:41,819 --> 00:30:43,200
前所未见

948
00:30:43,200 --> 00:30:44,819
比如考虑Chipotle

949
00:30:44,819 --> 00:30:45,980
Chipotle曾是

950
00:30:45,980 --> 00:30:48,829
你知道这是一个超级扩张的概念

951
00:30:48,829 --> 00:30:52,829
但当时他们并没有核心业务像超级盈利

952
00:30:52,829 --> 00:30:53,349
没错

953
00:30:53,349 --> 00:30:54,130
嗯

954
00:30:54,130 --> 00:30:56,289
你知道你可以几乎覆盖所有人

955
00:30:56,289 --> 00:30:58,769
比如Texas Roadhouse更像是单一模式

956
00:30:58,769 --> 00:31:01,450
不像他们身后有多个增长概念在发展

957
00:31:01,450 --> 00:31:02,769
像这类情况

958
00:31:02,769 --> 00:31:03,130
你知道的

959
00:31:03,130 --> 00:31:05,329
尽管他们名义上拥有几个其他品牌

960
00:31:05,329 --> 00:31:06,930
但这些更像是玩笑性质的概念

961
00:31:06,930 --> 00:31:08,069
相比北意大利风格

962
00:31:08,069 --> 00:31:09,059
花童主题

963
00:31:09,059 --> 00:31:10,220
所以你真的要深入分析

964
00:31:10,220 --> 00:31:12,200
这确实是一家非常特别的公司

965
00:31:12,200 --> 00:31:14,460
这是餐饮业的标杆企业

966
00:31:14,460 --> 00:31:16,299
像我们从未见过的模式

967
00:31:16,299 --> 00:31:19,380
对了，这是我对蛋糕公司的预测

968
00:31:19,380 --> 00:31:20,839
这是我的蛋糕公司模型

969
00:31:20,839 --> 00:31:25,759
未来几年预计平均实现9%的营收增长

970
00:31:25,759 --> 00:31:27,880
需注意成本持续上涨

971
00:31:27,880 --> 00:31:32,819
因此蛋糕公司每年营收增长约2-3%

972
00:31:32,819 --> 00:31:34,720
仅基于通胀因素

973
00:31:34,720 --> 00:31:35,220
没错

974
00:31:35,220 --> 00:31:36,980
这是需要考虑的因素

975
00:31:36,980 --> 00:31:37,980
所以你将会

976
00:31:37,980 --> 00:31:41,599
几乎能保证获得2-3%的增长

977
00:31:41,599 --> 00:31:45,920
再从北意餐厅和花童品牌获取额外营收增长

978
00:31:45,920 --> 00:31:47,460
及其他概念的扩张

979
00:31:47,460 --> 00:31:51,299
至于芝士蛋糕品牌

980
00:31:51,299 --> 00:31:52,619
只需提升销量

981
00:31:52,619 --> 00:31:56,609
对的，你可以看到如何达到7%

982
00:31:56,609 --> 00:31:58,769
甚至可能达到9%的增长率

983
00:31:58,769 --> 00:32:00,960
这里我设定了9%的增长率

984
00:32:00,960 --> 00:32:02,359
净利润增长11%

985
00:32:02,359 --> 00:32:06,199
净利润增速超过营收

986
00:32:06,199 --> 00:32:08,419
如果你拥有餐饮概念

987
00:32:08,419 --> 00:32:09,138
比如蛋糕品牌

988
00:32:09,138 --> 00:32:10,038
9%的营收增长

989
00:32:10,038 --> 00:32:11,019
11%的净利润增长

990
00:32:11,019 --> 00:32:12,930
28-33倍市盈率相当合理

991
00:32:12,930 --> 00:32:14,390
这能带来

992
00:32:14,390 --> 00:32:16,349
20多到30多倍的市现率

993
00:32:16,349 --> 00:32:18,089
极具吸引力对吧

994
00:32:18,089 --> 00:32:19,369
这是我的基准情景

995
00:32:19,369 --> 00:32:20,369
简单来说就是

996
00:32:20,369 --> 00:32:20,490
什么

997
00:32:20,490 --> 00:32:23,750
未来四年预计平均7%的营收增长

998
00:32:23,750 --> 00:32:25,329
9%的净利润增长

999
00:32:25,329 --> 00:32:27,839
对公司来说，合理的价格在二十五到三十之间

1000
00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:29,700
就像蛋糕以这样的增长率增长

1001
00:32:29,700 --> 00:32:32,349
我们讨论的是低二十几的khar

1002
00:32:32,349 --> 00:32:33,490
这里为了蛋糕

1003
00:32:33,490 --> 00:32:35,269
这份报告即将突破一百点

1004
00:32:35,269 --> 00:32:38,209
这就是我持有蛋糕并看它涨到一百点以上的原因

1005
00:32:38,209 --> 00:32:38,528
宝贝

1006
00:32:38,528 --> 00:32:39,009
好的

1007
00:32:39,009 --> 00:32:40,969
说到蛋糕还有另一件事

1008
00:32:40,969 --> 00:32:42,949
每三个月支付我股息

1009
00:32:42,949 --> 00:32:45,568
每股支付我二七美分

1010
00:32:45,568 --> 00:32:46,819
我没错吧

1011
00:32:46,819 --> 00:32:50,880
这意味着每三个月我能赚八百七十七美元

1012
00:32:50,880 --> 00:32:52,769
转入我的公共账户

1013
00:32:52,769 --> 00:32:53,130
对

1014
00:32:53,130 --> 00:32:56,309
这笔钱我可以用来买入更多蛋糕股票或其它股票

1015
00:32:56,309 --> 00:32:58,529
而且我不会分散投资组合

1016
00:32:58,529 --> 00:33:01,000
他们一直支付大量股息

1017
00:33:01,000 --> 00:33:03,700
然后用这些股息购买其他股票

1018
00:33:03,700 --> 00:33:06,599
关于蛋糕真是美妙绝伦

1019
00:33:06,599 --> 00:33:10,039
蛋糕是一只非常特别的股票

1020
00:33:10,039 --> 00:33:11,940
我认为它被严重低估了

1021
00:33:11,940 --> 00:33:13,460
我觉得你可能不知道

1022
00:33:13,460 --> 00:33:14,859
同时要记住股息部分

1023
00:33:14,859 --> 00:33:18,650
未来几年他们可能不会大幅提高股息

1024
00:33:18,650 --> 00:33:23,849
因为他们需要将资金投入北阿拉和花童扩展项目

1025
00:33:23,849 --> 00:33:27,720
但请记住这些将带来惊人利润

1026
00:33:27,720 --> 00:33:29,880
从长期来看

1027
00:33:29,880 --> 00:33:32,079
如果他们想支付更多

1028
00:33:32,079 --> 00:33:32,880
更大的股息

1029
00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:33,500
他们可以

1030
00:33:33,500 --> 00:33:34,299
他们可以

1031
00:33:34,299 --> 00:33:34,680
好的

1032
00:33:34,680 --> 00:33:35,740
请记住这一点

1033
00:33:35,740 --> 00:33:38,710
第二或第三是elf elf

1034
00:33:38,710 --> 00:33:41,509
另一个非科技类优质股票的例子

1035
00:33:41,509 --> 00:33:42,839
我绝对喜爱这只股票

1036
00:33:42,839 --> 00:33:46,420
多年来这只股票表现优异

1037
00:33:46,420 --> 00:33:48,880
过去几年波动性很大

1038
00:33:48,880 --> 00:33:50,160
充满戏剧性

1039
00:33:50,160 --> 00:33:50,799
我说啊

1040
00:33:50,799 --> 00:33:51,710
你知道的

1041
00:33:51,710 --> 00:33:54,849
他们收购了多个品牌

1042
00:33:54,849 --> 00:33:55,470
嗯

1043
00:33:55,470 --> 00:33:57,029
这些品牌表现惊人

1044
00:33:57,029 --> 00:33:58,049
尤其是在公路领域

1045
00:33:58,049 --> 00:33:59,929
这对公司是重大变革

1046
00:33:59,929 --> 00:34:02,689
他们曾有过疯狂的增长率

1047
00:34:02,689 --> 00:34:04,069
这些增长率放缓了

1048
00:34:04,069 --> 00:34:05,309
还有关税风波

1049
00:34:05,309 --> 00:34:08,170
你在处理精灵相关事务时涉及了很多环节

1050
00:34:08,170 --> 00:34:08,530
好的

1051
00:34:08,530 --> 00:34:11,639
但今天这家公司展现了强劲的增长势头并交出亮眼业绩

1052
00:34:11,639 --> 00:34:13,460
基于我的预测

1053
00:34:13,460 --> 00:34:14,039
针对精灵公司

1054
00:34:14,039 --> 00:34:14,980
我的看涨情景

1055
00:34:14,980 --> 00:34:17,099
我预计股价将上涨至238美元

1056
00:34:17,099 --> 00:34:18,960
在2029年达到272美元

1057
00:34:18,960 --> 00:34:23,139
我的看涨情景到2029年目标价80美元

1058
00:34:23,139 --> 00:34:23,559
什么情况

1059
00:34:23,559 --> 00:34:24,980
这只股票很有吸引力

1060
00:34:24,980 --> 00:34:28,608
我的基准情景其实就是我实际预期的

1061
00:34:28,608 --> 00:34:33,048
我预计股价将涨至160至187美元

1062
00:34:33,048 --> 00:34:34,789
到2029年

1063
00:34:35,110 --> 00:34:37,389
从当前价位看涨幅巨大

1064
00:34:37,389 --> 00:34:38,369
基本上没错

1065
00:34:38,369 --> 00:34:39,309
所以精灵公司

1066
00:34:39,309 --> 00:34:40,210
绝对是一家好公司

1067
00:34:40,210 --> 00:34:42,980
我热爱稳健型股票

1068
00:34:42,980 --> 00:34:45,000
化妆品行业

1069
00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:46,280
我想赚钱

1070
00:34:46,280 --> 00:34:48,599
你知道赚钱对我来说并不无聊

1071
00:34:48,599 --> 00:34:50,639
你知道这永远不会让人厌倦

1072
00:34:50,639 --> 00:34:51,498
我感到惊讶

1073
00:34:51,498 --> 00:34:51,958
我就像

1074
00:34:51,958 --> 00:34:52,318
你知道

1075
00:34:52,318 --> 00:34:53,559
你以为会厌倦赚钱这件事

1076
00:34:53,559 --> 00:34:54,478
我永远不觉得无聊

1077
00:34:54,478 --> 00:34:55,539
这总是充满乐趣

1078
00:34:55,539 --> 00:34:56,119
没错

1079
00:34:56,119 --> 00:34:56,920
接下来这个

1080
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:58,860
第三个案例

1081
00:34:58,860 --> 00:35:02,719
所以从技术上讲不涉及科技领域

1082
00:35:02,719 --> 00:35:03,880
尽管有些人说

1083
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:04,000
哦

1084
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:04,800
这有点金融科技属性

1085
00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:05,500
确实如此

1086
00:35:05,500 --> 00:35:07,880
而沙发才是未来银行的形态

1087
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:10,039
你需要仔细观察他们的

1088
00:35:10,039 --> 00:35:12,639
吸引的会员数量

1089
00:35:12,639 --> 00:35:13,079
他们的

1090
00:35:13,079 --> 00:35:14,280
收入趋势

1091
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:15,000
利润率趋势

1092
00:35:15,000 --> 00:35:15,840
以及这些方面

1093
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:16,860
这简直难以置信

1094
00:35:16,860 --> 00:35:20,280
我们持有的134%仓位对应5.6万美元股票

1095
00:35:20,280 --> 00:35:21,860
这个数字很小

1096
00:35:21,860 --> 00:35:22,840
相比精灵公司

1097
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:23,679
股价上涨超过一

1098
00:35:23,679 --> 00:35:26,059
你知道我们称之为1100%涨幅

1099
00:35:26,059 --> 00:35:26,539
对

1100
00:35:26,539 --> 00:35:28,840
但索瓦对我来说一直是个优质股票

1101
00:35:28,840 --> 00:35:31,059
我认为它未来多年仍将是优质股票

1102
00:35:31,059 --> 00:35:32,039
未来可期

1103
00:35:32,039 --> 00:35:38,039
安东尼·诺托管理公司的话，只要他妥善管理风险

1104
00:35:38,039 --> 00:35:42,150
此人你知道他早年来自高盛

1105
00:35:42,150 --> 00:35:45,250
你真的能学到公司风险管理和运营之道

1106
00:35:45,250 --> 00:35:46,409
就像高盛一样

1107
00:35:46,409 --> 00:35:51,050
公司始终从风险管理角度稳健运营

1108
00:35:51,050 --> 00:35:52,510
仿佛世界尽在掌握

1109
00:35:52,510 --> 00:35:55,289
诺托的关键在于

1110
00:35:55,289 --> 00:35:56,750
他只需不搞砸就行

1111
00:35:56,750 --> 00:35:58,230
就这么简单

1112
00:35:58,230 --> 00:35:59,349
这里有一家好公司

1113
00:35:59,349 --> 00:35:59,909
如此优秀

1114
00:35:59,909 --> 00:36:01,030
就像一匹赛马

1115
00:36:01,030 --> 00:36:02,230
只需不犯错

1116
00:36:02,230 --> 00:36:02,858
兄弟

1117
00:36:02,858 --> 00:36:04,139
只要不搞砸

1118
00:36:04,139 --> 00:36:05,318
仿佛世界尽在掌握

1119
00:36:05,318 --> 00:36:06,498
难以置信

1120
00:36:06,498 --> 00:36:08,719
这家公司增长速度令人难以置信

1121
00:36:08,719 --> 00:36:10,719
所以所以嗯

1122
00:36:10,719 --> 00:36:12,280
银行业未来如此简单

1123
00:36:12,280 --> 00:36:12,679
没错

1124
00:36:12,679 --> 00:36:14,679
我认为值得特别提及

1125
00:36:14,679 --> 00:36:16,880
非科技股的特别提及

1126
00:36:16,880 --> 00:36:18,929
我最爱的是耐克

1127
00:36:18,929 --> 00:36:20,389
耐克值得特别提及

1128
00:36:20,389 --> 00:36:21,690
转型成果清晰可见

1129
00:36:21,690 --> 00:36:22,469
如今已是

1130
00:36:22,469 --> 00:36:22,829
此刻看来

1131
00:36:22,829 --> 00:36:25,000
埃利奥特·希尔斯为耐克

1132
00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:25,719
正在出色履职

1133
00:36:25,719 --> 00:36:27,739
他最近确实有一场很棒的采访

1134
00:36:27,739 --> 00:36:30,730
尤其是与彭博社的采访我非常喜欢

1135
00:36:30,730 --> 00:36:31,289
不过啊

1136
00:36:31,289 --> 00:36:31,710
耐克

1137
00:36:31,710 --> 00:36:32,170
绝对

1138
00:36:32,170 --> 00:36:32,710
呃

1139
00:36:32,710 --> 00:36:34,449
转型成果如同

1140
00:36:34,449 --> 00:36:36,429
转型已成定局无需质疑

1141
00:36:36,429 --> 00:36:38,590
此刻观察北美业务数据

1142
00:36:38,590 --> 00:36:39,429
表现优异

1143
00:36:39,449 --> 00:36:41,809
中国业务数据或将逐步回升

1144
00:36:41,809 --> 00:36:43,670
随着今年推进持续改善

1145
00:36:43,670 --> 00:36:44,469
所以耐克

1146
00:36:44,469 --> 00:36:45,409
特别提及

1147
00:36:45,409 --> 00:36:46,028
好的

1148
00:36:46,028 --> 00:36:46,708
接下来

1149
00:36:46,708 --> 00:36:49,869
我们正在经历一场针对所有SaaS公司的末日场景

1150
00:36:49,869 --> 00:36:52,090
让我给你列出我的五大SaaS股票

1151
00:36:52,090 --> 00:36:53,469
按顺序排列

1152
00:36:53,469 --> 00:36:54,429
请注意

1153
00:36:54,429 --> 00:36:55,050
让我说明

1154
00:36:55,050 --> 00:36:59,650
我在这个第一季度非常重仓买入SaaS股票

1155
00:36:59,650 --> 00:37:00,289
作为某种

1156
00:37:00,289 --> 00:37:00,989
我已提前透露

1157
00:37:00,989 --> 00:37:02,469
看到弱势信号后

1158
00:37:02,469 --> 00:37:04,940
我正试图尽可能多地获取

1159
00:37:04,940 --> 00:37:07,619
这些优质SaaS股票的股份

1160
00:37:07,619 --> 00:37:09,420
在第一季度尽可能多地持有

1161
00:37:09,420 --> 00:37:10,980
这并不意味着我停止买入

1162
00:37:10,980 --> 00:37:13,849
我可能会全年持有这些股票

1163
00:37:13,849 --> 00:37:16,989
但激进买入主要在第一季度

1164
00:37:16,989 --> 00:37:19,809
因为这里发生了大量损失

1165
00:37:19,809 --> 00:37:23,349
所以毫无疑问

1166
00:37:23,349 --> 00:37:26,309
有些SaaS公司将被淘汰

1167
00:37:26,309 --> 00:37:29,949
有些将变得无关或难以增长业务

1168
00:37:29,949 --> 00:37:33,179
类似情况会有一些价值陷阱

1169
00:37:33,179 --> 00:37:35,369
你可以主张

1170
00:37:35,369 --> 00:37:39,090
如果你认为这些公司未来几年增长有限

1171
00:37:39,090 --> 00:37:42,010
可以主张许多SaaS股票将成为价值陷阱

1172
00:37:42,010 --> 00:37:45,590
这是合理的讨论

1173
00:37:45,590 --> 00:37:51,219
但我看到的未来是这些公司强劲增长

1174
00:37:51,219 --> 00:37:55,519
未来几年单位或低双位数增长

1175
00:37:56,250 --> 00:38:00,449
净利润和每股收益增长更快

1176
00:38:00,449 --> 00:38:01,650
因为它们无需像

1177
00:38:01,650 --> 00:38:04,050
这些超速扩张者在业务上投入那么多

1178
00:38:04,050 --> 00:38:04,329
没错

1179
00:38:04,329 --> 00:38:05,789
所以它们可以进行大规模回购

1180
00:38:05,789 --> 00:38:06,349
好的

1181
00:38:06,349 --> 00:38:07,590
现在开始排名

1182
00:38:07,590 --> 00:38:08,590
我的前五名

1183
00:38:08,590 --> 00:38:09,599
第一名

1184
00:38:09,599 --> 00:38:10,880
这是最佳选择

1185
00:38:10,880 --> 00:38:11,559
在我看来

1186
00:38:11,559 --> 00:38:12,539
在SaaS领域

1187
00:38:12,539 --> 00:38:13,639
它是CRM

1188
00:38:13,639 --> 00:38:14,579
就是Salesforce

1189
00:38:14,579 --> 00:38:15,659
我认为这是

1190
00:38:15,659 --> 00:38:16,320
你知道的

1191
00:38:16,320 --> 00:38:17,940
这批中最安全的

1192
00:38:17,940 --> 00:38:19,800
现在看Salesforce的市盈率14倍

1193
00:38:19,800 --> 00:38:21,889
明年市盈率14倍

1194
00:38:22,170 --> 00:38:22,730
明年每股收益增长率预计14%

1195
00:38:22,730 --> 00:38:25,130
明年营收增长率预计9%

1196
00:38:25,130 --> 00:38:27,829
我说真的

1197
00:38:27,829 --> 00:38:29,190
我预计Salesforce全年将超预期

1198
00:38:29,190 --> 00:38:32,070
我预期Salesforce全年表现优异

1199
00:38:32,070 --> 00:38:35,170
他们向客户销售的产品线非常齐全

1200
00:38:35,170 --> 00:38:36,530
你知道只需要

1201
00:38:36,530 --> 00:38:37,380
你知道的

1202
00:38:37,380 --> 00:38:39,260
人们正在得出这些荒谬的结论

1203
00:38:39,260 --> 00:38:39,420
至于

1204
00:38:39,420 --> 00:38:39,739
你知道的

1205
00:38:39,739 --> 00:38:42,340
软件领域的所有东西都将被完全取代

1206
00:38:42,340 --> 00:38:43,300
你知道的

1207
00:38:43,300 --> 00:38:45,619
这些公司被派出去了，你不再需要这些公司了

1208
00:38:45,619 --> 00:38:46,528
以及类似的事情

1209
00:38:46,528 --> 00:38:50,728
我认为这完全是天方夜谭

1210
00:38:50,728 --> 00:38:53,130
因为这关系到salesforce

1211
00:38:53,130 --> 00:38:54,230
我非常喜欢这家公司

1212
00:38:54,230 --> 00:38:55,110
本尼下线

1213
00:38:55,110 --> 00:38:55,650
我是说

1214
00:38:55,650 --> 00:38:57,269
你要敢赌本尼下线

1215
00:38:57,269 --> 00:38:58,690
别闹了别闹了

1216
00:38:58,690 --> 00:39:00,590
你不觉得本尼下线会成功

1217
00:39:01,250 --> 00:39:03,909
人们只从负面角度看待这件事

1218
00:39:03,909 --> 00:39:05,210
对于这些saas公司来说

1219
00:39:05,210 --> 00:39:07,429
像salesforce和其他公司这样的

1220
00:39:07,429 --> 00:39:09,050
只从负面角度看待

1221
00:39:09,050 --> 00:39:12,599
人工智能浪潮只会对这些公司造成负面影响

1222
00:39:12,599 --> 00:39:14,579
会拖累它们的增长速度

1223
00:39:14,579 --> 00:39:16,800
会损害它们多年的利润机会

1224
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:18,239
会损害一切

1225
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:19,519
这会让我不再相关

1226
00:39:19,519 --> 00:39:22,639
而我的看法完全不同

1227
00:39:22,639 --> 00:39:24,920
詹森也谈到这一点

1228
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:29,500
我认为这是下一波增长的巨大催化剂

1229
00:39:29,500 --> 00:39:30,960
对于许多软件公司而言

1230
00:39:30,960 --> 00:39:33,320
我观察像agent force及其正在做的事情

1231
00:39:33,320 --> 00:39:35,739
以及他们在人工智能领域其他产品的规划

1232
00:39:35,739 --> 00:39:37,980
在我看来

1233
00:39:37,980 --> 00:39:40,610
这对这些公司来说是巨大机遇

1234
00:39:40,610 --> 00:39:45,750
这些公司过去两三年的增长确实放缓了

1235
00:39:45,750 --> 00:39:49,610
我认为这次人工智能浪潮不会降低增长

1236
00:39:49,610 --> 00:39:51,050
我认为会提升增长

1237
00:39:51,050 --> 00:39:52,690
我们将看到增长加速

1238
00:39:52,690 --> 00:39:55,420
甚至像salesforce这样的公司

1239
00:39:55,420 --> 00:40:00,219
五强第二名是service now

1240
00:40:00,219 --> 00:40:01,980
接下来是这家

1241
00:40:01,980 --> 00:40:03,900
由麦克德莫特领导这家公司

1242
00:40:03,900 --> 00:40:05,460
此条评分为254分

1243
00:40:05,460 --> 00:40:07,699
这个在四分制中评分稍高

1244
00:40:07,699 --> 00:40:12,800
但明年增长潜力远超该领域几乎所有公司

1245
00:40:12,800 --> 00:40:15,920
service now每股收益增长率预计达19%

1246
00:40:15,920 --> 00:40:19,199
service now明年营收增长率预计17%

1247
00:40:19,199 --> 00:40:21,760
别惊讶他们可能超越这些数据

1248
00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,619
明年每股收益增长率可能会更高

1249
00:40:24,619 --> 00:40:29,260
这个数值在二十多区间，收入约为百分之二十

1250
00:40:29,260 --> 00:40:32,269
大约十九个百分点，现在服务端

1251
00:40:32,269 --> 00:40:33,530
我非常喜欢这个

1252
00:40:33,530 --> 00:40:35,750
这些大公司已经深深依赖它

1253
00:40:35,750 --> 00:40:37,210
天啊

1254
00:40:37,210 --> 00:40:39,230
比如你知道的

1255
00:40:39,849 --> 00:40:40,510
是的

1256
00:40:40,510 --> 00:40:41,309
没错

1257
00:40:41,309 --> 00:40:44,989
接下来是d b e项目

1258
00:40:44,989 --> 00:40:47,730
我认为人们可以提出最强有力的论点

1259
00:40:47,730 --> 00:40:48,909
这是一只价值陷阱

1260
00:40:48,909 --> 00:40:50,510
没错，你不会赚钱

1261
00:40:50,510 --> 00:40:51,989
就像PayPal的情况

1262
00:40:51,989 --> 00:40:53,320
我觉得这很合理

1263
00:40:53,320 --> 00:40:54,840
但我并不这么看

1264
00:40:54,840 --> 00:40:59,190
我不认为人们理解Adobe的盈利模式

1265
00:40:59,190 --> 00:41:01,630
Adobe主要从大公司盈利

1266
00:41:01,630 --> 00:41:04,389
来自市场部门和内容创作

1267
00:41:04,389 --> 00:41:06,099
以及类似业务

1268
00:41:06,099 --> 00:41:13,019
Adobe仍是高端需求的必要工具

1269
00:41:13,019 --> 00:41:14,340
在图像和照片处理方面

1270
00:41:14,340 --> 00:41:15,179
在市场营销领域

1271
00:41:15,179 --> 00:41:16,519
以及其他相关领域

1272
00:41:16,519 --> 00:41:19,599
当你处于Adobe生态系统中

1273
00:41:19,599 --> 00:41:20,860
你可以退出

1274
00:41:20,860 --> 00:41:23,960
但多数情况下并不划算

1275
00:41:23,960 --> 00:41:24,980
确实不划算

1276
00:41:24,980 --> 00:41:29,539
Adobe的许多业务正在指数级增长

1277
00:41:29,539 --> 00:41:30,599
不是说

1278
00:41:30,599 --> 00:41:30,880
哦

1279
00:41:30,880 --> 00:41:31,960
这项业务增长了3%

1280
00:41:31,960 --> 00:41:32,119
不

1281
00:41:32,119 --> 00:41:32,320
不不

1282
00:41:32,320 --> 00:41:34,099
它们的增长速度像其他业务一样

1283
00:41:34,619 --> 00:41:38,119
收入增长惊人，两位数增速

1284
00:41:38,119 --> 00:41:41,590
再次我们看到另一家公司

1285
00:41:41,590 --> 00:41:43,510
人们只看到负面因素

1286
00:41:43,510 --> 00:41:45,110
Adobe没有机会

1287
00:41:45,110 --> 00:41:48,519
而他们拥有巨大的业务扩展机会

1288
00:41:48,519 --> 00:41:51,960
未来几年在AI领域大幅扩张

1289
00:41:51,960 --> 00:41:54,739
明年每股收益预计增长13%

1290
00:41:54,739 --> 00:41:56,000
Adobe明年每股收益增长13%

1291
00:41:56,000 --> 00:41:58,460
明年营收预计增长超9%

1292
00:41:58,460 --> 00:41:58,880
对于公司整体

1293
00:41:58,880 --> 00:41:59,460
不要惊讶

1294
00:41:59,460 --> 00:42:00,980
接下来的业绩将超预期

1295
00:42:00,980 --> 00:42:01,449
好的

1296
00:42:01,449 --> 00:42:04,590
第四第五个项目进入分析

1297
00:42:04,590 --> 00:42:07,050
分析i n t u这个案例

1298
00:42:07,050 --> 00:42:07,710
深入探讨

1299
00:42:07,710 --> 00:42:09,510
15点4分

1300
00:42:09,510 --> 00:42:12,590
预计明年每股收益增长率约为13.5%

1301
00:42:12,590 --> 00:42:14,849
预计明年营收增长率将达到12%

1302
00:42:14,849 --> 00:42:15,940
Intuit公司

1303
00:42:15,940 --> 00:42:17,280
这是一家很棒的公司

1304
00:42:17,280 --> 00:42:18,900
这里有多个优质业务线

1305
00:42:18,900 --> 00:42:20,670
全球最佳商业模式之一

1306
00:42:20,670 --> 00:42:22,369
全球最伟大的公司之一

1307
00:42:22,369 --> 00:42:23,349
嗯，而且

1308
00:42:23,349 --> 00:42:23,829
你知道的

1309
00:42:23,829 --> 00:42:25,969
现在又有一个被抛出的

1310
00:42:25,969 --> 00:42:29,699
而这些公司的问题在于

1311
00:42:29,699 --> 00:42:30,739
我使用他们的产品

1312
00:42:30,739 --> 00:42:32,239
无法替代他们的产品

1313
00:42:32,239 --> 00:42:33,039
你开玩笑吗

1314
00:42:33,039 --> 00:42:34,300
比如一个好例子

1315
00:42:34,300 --> 00:42:35,239
就像Salesforce

1316
00:42:35,239 --> 00:42:36,230
我用Slack

1317
00:42:36,230 --> 00:42:38,170
你知道我有小企业

1318
00:42:38,170 --> 00:42:39,190
我们使用Slack

1319
00:42:39,190 --> 00:42:41,789
你以为我们明天就能替换Slack

1320
00:42:41,789 --> 00:42:43,710
拜托，这太荒谬了

1321
00:42:43,710 --> 00:42:44,429
Intuit

1322
00:42:44,429 --> 00:42:47,380
我们一直用QuickBooks很久了

1323
00:42:48,900 --> 00:42:51,559
你以为我们会切换QuickBooks

1324
00:42:51,559 --> 00:42:53,559
或许能自己写代码替代

1325
00:42:53,559 --> 00:42:54,239
拜托啊

1326
00:42:54,239 --> 00:42:54,400
比如

1327
00:42:54,400 --> 00:42:55,599
我们在这里讨论什么

1328
00:42:55,599 --> 00:42:56,699
这太荒谬了

1329
00:42:56,699 --> 00:42:58,079
这太荒谬了

1330
00:42:58,079 --> 00:42:59,300
嗯

1331
00:42:59,619 --> 00:43:00,619
总之

1332
00:43:00,619 --> 00:43:05,159
就像猜猜Intuit今年和未来几年还会为我赚钱

1333
00:43:05,159 --> 00:43:05,460
就像

1334
00:43:05,460 --> 00:43:10,159
就这么简单，所以我将继续助力他们的业绩

1335
00:43:10,159 --> 00:43:10,659
没错

1336
00:43:10,659 --> 00:43:12,719
这就是接下来的内容

1337
00:43:12,719 --> 00:43:14,429
第五项是

1338
00:43:14,429 --> 00:43:16,090
哦，帕洛阿尔托网络

1339
00:43:16,090 --> 00:43:16,969
这家公司

1340
00:43:16,969 --> 00:43:19,469
你知道盘后股价约151美元

1341
00:43:19,469 --> 00:43:20,179
我查看了那边

1342
00:43:20,179 --> 00:43:21,820
初步数据看起来不错

1343
00:43:21,820 --> 00:43:23,260
我需要深入分析

1344
00:43:23,260 --> 00:43:25,079
但这家公司变得非常有趣

1345
00:43:25,079 --> 00:43:26,360
福特股票

1346
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:28,369
明天股价应会达到30多

1347
00:43:29,420 --> 00:43:30,599
但你知道的

1348
00:43:30,599 --> 00:43:33,780
这是一家未来数年有望持续增长的公司

1349
00:43:33,780 --> 00:43:35,440
如果你想想网络安全

1350
00:43:35,440 --> 00:43:38,179
像这样的AI浪潮不会消失

1351
00:43:38,179 --> 00:43:39,639
这不是暂时消失的事

1352
00:43:39,639 --> 00:43:40,480
拜托啊兄弟

1353
00:43:40,480 --> 00:43:41,260
所以这是另一个例子

1354
00:43:41,260 --> 00:43:43,010
我看到这是巨大机会

1355
00:43:43,210 --> 00:43:44,809
短期内有很多事情发生

1356
00:43:44,809 --> 00:43:47,610
短期内还会有很多事情发生没错

1357
00:43:47,610 --> 00:43:49,010
专注长期发展

1358
00:43:49,010 --> 00:43:50,550
专注优质企业

1359
00:43:50,550 --> 00:43:52,949
增持优质企业股权

1360
00:43:52,949 --> 00:43:55,550
GVD增长价值分红

1361
00:43:55,550 --> 00:43:57,050
短期就是短期

1362
00:43:57,050 --> 00:43:58,150
所有这些恐惧

1363
00:43:58,150 --> 00:43:58,989
以及那些担忧

1364
00:43:58,989 --> 00:43:59,510
还有SaaS

1365
00:43:59,510 --> 00:44:00,309
末日论和 blah

1366
00:44:00,309 --> 00:44:00,510
blah

1367
00:44:00,510 --> 00:44:01,579
blah对吧

1368
00:44:01,579 --> 00:44:02,460
这会成为什么

1369
00:44:02,460 --> 00:44:04,000
这将成为过去

1370
00:44:04,000 --> 00:44:06,280
优质企业仍将保持卓越

1371
00:44:06,280 --> 00:44:07,960
它们将持续增加营收

1372
00:44:07,960 --> 00:44:09,400
或持续提升利润

1373
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:09,960
利润率

1374
00:44:09,960 --> 00:44:11,159
所有这些好事没错

1375
00:44:11,159 --> 00:44:13,360
短期就是短期就是说

1376
00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:14,500
专注长期发展

1377
00:44:14,500 --> 00:44:15,300
买入企业

1378
00:44:15,300 --> 00:44:17,320
让你日后自我表扬

1379
00:44:17,320 --> 00:44:21,059
并说三年前买入股票真明智

1380
00:44:21,059 --> 00:44:21,900
五年前

1381
00:44:21,900 --> 00:44:23,059
这类事情对吧

1382
00:44:23,059 --> 00:44:24,239
这就是我做的事

1383
00:44:24,239 --> 00:44:24,920
你知道的

1384
00:44:24,920 --> 00:44:25,320
精灵

1385
00:44:25,320 --> 00:44:25,980
绝佳案例

1386
00:44:25,980 --> 00:44:26,360
精灵

1387
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:26,719
你知道的

1388
00:44:26,719 --> 00:44:27,780
涨幅达一千一百%

1389
00:44:27,780 --> 00:44:29,480
自多年前买入该股票以来

1390
00:44:29,480 --> 00:44:31,199
从2019年精灵时期

1391
00:44:31,199 --> 00:44:33,820
经历了诸多不同增长阶段

1392
00:44:33,820 --> 00:44:35,780
公司充满戏剧性变化

1393
00:44:35,780 --> 00:44:38,639
当年有很多负面报道

1394
00:44:38,639 --> 00:44:40,480
各种千变万化的事

1395
00:44:40,480 --> 00:44:43,949
但最终我获得一千一百%收益

1396
00:44:43,949 --> 00:44:45,688
没错未来还有更多收益

1397
00:44:45,688 --> 00:44:47,869
所以专注优质企业

1398
00:44:47,869 --> 00:44:49,670
保持多元化增长股票

1399
00:44:49,670 --> 00:44:50,150
价值股

1400
00:44:50,150 --> 00:44:50,670
分红股

1401
00:44:50,670 --> 00:44:52,389
这三个领域都有机会

1402
00:44:52,389 --> 00:44:53,150
嗯

1403
00:44:53,150 --> 00:44:54,690
继续不断加强

1404
00:44:54,690 --> 00:44:55,510
日复一日

1405
00:44:55,510 --> 00:44:56,250
月复一月

1406
00:44:56,250 --> 00:44:56,869
年复一年

1407
00:44:56,869 --> 00:44:57,170
好的

1408
00:44:57,170 --> 00:44:58,900
感谢你一如既往地加入我

1409
00:44:58,900 --> 00:45:02,860
如果你是想要访问我所有课程大纲的个人

1410
00:45:02,860 --> 00:45:05,190
你想要加入我的私人社群

1411
00:45:05,190 --> 00:45:07,190
如果你想获取独家每周视频

1412
00:45:07,190 --> 00:45:08,050
我的高级软件

1413
00:45:08,050 --> 00:45:09,230
千倍股票.com

1414
00:45:09,230 --> 00:45:10,789
所有这类内容都会被置顶

1415
00:45:10,789 --> 00:45:12,230
今天在下方评论

1416
00:45:12,230 --> 00:45:13,150
其实这是一个社群

1417
00:45:13,150 --> 00:45:16,170
主要是净资产超过四百万美元的个人

1418
00:45:16,170 --> 00:45:16,690
不过

1419
00:45:16,690 --> 00:45:19,800
如果你净资产不足十万美元也可以申请

1420
00:45:19,800 --> 00:45:21,340
可能并不适合你

1421
00:45:21,340 --> 00:45:22,159
一旦你加入我们

1422
00:45:22,159 --> 00:45:23,480
我们会发送专属会员卡

1423
00:45:23,480 --> 00:45:24,380
所有优质资源

1424
00:45:24,380 --> 00:45:25,980
衷心祝福，祝你有个美好的一天

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