【UNRIVALED INVESTING】AI要砸谁的饭碗？财税巨头也怕了？

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进入其库存

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迄今为止，我特已经损失了近一半的价值

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然而你正在审视一家管理层表示

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是的

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我们各项业务都在增长

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如果你看看我们的全球业务解决方案

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Quickbooks

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Mailchimp

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他们预期青少年型增长

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Turbotax

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8%的信贷增长

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Karma

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青少年专业税务解决方案

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各种不同税务品牌

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仍能勉强实现整体增长

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一家管理层认为今年仍将继续增长的业务

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以青少年增长率达到约200亿美元营收

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然而股价暴跌

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这意味着如果基本面正在迅速扩张

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仍保持良好增速

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我认为10%以上的增速

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这意味着此次全部下跌

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这巨大

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你知道的下降近

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你知道超过40%

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接近50%

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是估值压缩所致

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意味着基本面改善，基本面驱动长期回报

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但估值才是所有噪音的来源

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短期的胃灼热感

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狂热情绪

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日常行为中的兴奋感

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这些都是估值变化

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因此你可能会问

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为什么估值变化如此剧烈

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因为你可以看到这里

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这是Intuit的市销现金流图

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从约40到50倍的天价

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自由现金流如今非常丰厚，已进入投资者认为

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是的

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在中等

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中到高青少年区间

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自由现金流市盈率约16倍

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因此有必要后退一步

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为什么发生这种情况

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这也是为何许多软件公司股价下跌的原因

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现在已超出软件领域

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担忧AI将颠覆所有业务

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我认为AI确实可能对大多数软件公司构成真实风险

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而Intuit拥有这些不同资产

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你需要开始逐个分析每个板块

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我们将在本视频中探讨这一点

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好的

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这真的会产生多大的影响

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它真的会攻击这个吗

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我确实认为人工智能将引发一场革命

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所以我认为你应该明白

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当你逐一分析个股时

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并评估埃隆·马斯克所说的

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你知道的

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他提到过超音速海啸

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这就是人工智能革命

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因为它规模巨大且发展迅速

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将在未来几年内发生

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这种巨大影响

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因此你需要非常谨慎

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就在上周在我的信中

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来自UnrivalInvesting的订阅者

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我大致梳理了潜在避风港

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可能免受这场人工智能革命冲击的领域

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但需认识到

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未来几年将面临巨大变革

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我可能会单独制作一期视频

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专门聚焦人工智能冲击

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但我想重点分析Intuit公司

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这是否是价值洼地

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或未来可能的发展方向

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正如我刚才提到的

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大量数据表明

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是的

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人工智能和新公司利用AI进行竞争

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这里有一位名为Altruists的专家提到

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由Hazel驱动的AI税务规划

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并与独立顾问合作推出新型税务解决方案

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借助

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AI系统提示

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我们能够

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几分钟内完成你的税务申报

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现在

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我不认为这会直接影响

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例如针对TurboTax市场

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举例来说

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可能有人会说

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人工智能将变得极其强大

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我只是在询问CBT

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这是之前的一篇文章

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你知道的

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有人问道

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如何一步步填写税务表格

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所以你知道的

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也许也许这就是我的解决方案

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所以有很多税务解决方案

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因为很多人认为税法实在太复杂

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现在你可以拥有能记忆它的AI

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可以记忆本地税法

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它可以

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你知道联邦层面的

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并且可以免费或低成本

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为你工作的超级智能税务顾问

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所以我确实认为有很多人正在考虑这个角度

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这也是股价下跌的重要原因

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另一个部分是担忧和疑问这些新AI界面是否会

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成为许多消费体验的入口

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成为许多消费体验的入口

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他们会说

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嗯

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这个AI已成为我人生的代理人

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当我需要

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你能帮我解决这个问题吗

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也许我需要新的车险

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或者你需要个人贷款

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或者我想办张新信用卡

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或者我想

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你知道某种

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你知道的金融

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也许家财险

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我可能会寻找许多不同金融产品

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我可以借助代理人来办理

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因为像

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比如个人贷款

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我需要提供的各种因素

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比如我的个人偏好

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这些其实并不重要

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关键在于

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利率是多少

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你知道的

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贷款期限是多久

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你知道的

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我能获得多少资金

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你不需要考虑像毛巾购物那样

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如果在选购毛巾

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通过触摸感受材质

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在个人贷款中

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你需要了解利率和期限

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大概金额是多少

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当你想到Credit Karma

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属于Intuit的资产

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其中很多都是

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基于交易的商业模式

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帮助消费者进入他们的市场平台

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这涉及到第三方机构

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每当他们在市场上发生交易时

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然后你就可以

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你知道他们

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他们会获得一定分成

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这就是我们需要这样理解

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如果你拥有这个AI

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这就是主要入口

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是否还需要像Credit Karma这样的服务

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对于这类情况

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我认为更具颠覆风险

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你知道税务问题

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这有点模糊

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像Credit Karma这样的服务

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我会评为高风险

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当我们考虑这个问题时

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但我觉得有必要深入探讨

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等等等等

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并非所有业务领域都同等对待

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你知道并非所有

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并非所有业务领域应同等对待

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当你分析全球企业解决方案领域时

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这占了业务的60%

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大致如此，比如他们的QuickBooks

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这就是所谓的

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会计、工资支付解决方案

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这将非常难以替代

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针对小型企业解决方案

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还提供Mailchimp

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营销及其他中小型企业工具

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这占业务的60%

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质量非常高

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我认为未来几年仍将保持强劲增长

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这很难想象

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AI可能颠覆这个核心数据源

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即会计系统

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未来可能会有变化

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但目前这

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我认为这不是主要担忧

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担忧集中在其他两个领域

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Turbotax占四分之一，Credit Karma超10%

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这占业务的三分之一

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我认为短期内风险更高

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Credit Karma

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正如我之前提到的，AI成为主要入口

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然后你会说

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等等等等

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我的新信用卡交易

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新贷款

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新车产品

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我真的很需要它们而不是依赖人工智能

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这能替我完成购物

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你知道的

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再次直接联系贷款机构或保险公司

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这有点模糊不清了

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你会有一些高端解决方案

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你在哪里

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你有顾问加上人工智能

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但这并不是TurboTax在谈论的内容

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TurboTax就是

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你知道的

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帮助自助完成

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类似投资者

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消费者税务准备

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自助加辅助

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你知道的

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我强烈怀疑未来几年这会面临AI解决方案的压力

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无论是新公司还是从业者

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正如我之前提到的

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试图利用ChatGPT自行处理

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问题是

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这会有多麻烦

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是否值得继续支付TurboTax的费用

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你知道并获得TurboTax带来的权威认证

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这里显示

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是的

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你的审计风险极低

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引入专有数据

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可以说ChatGPT无法提供这些

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因为他们可以说

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我们分析了所有税务申报

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我们可以以X%的置信度确认

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你不太可能被审计

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即使被审计

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我们将支持这次审计

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我们将支持

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基于我们与你的合作，这份申报是正确的

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这其中确实有无形价值

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用户可能会长期为此付费

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因此我不认为TurboTax

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可能会一夜之间被颠覆

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这将是一个长期过程

243
00:09:17,100 --> 00:09:19,080
我预计Credit Karma

244
00:09:19,080 --> 00:09:20,820
我认为面临更快

245
00:09:20,820 --> 00:09:23,299
面临更快的颠覆风险

246
00:09:23,299 --> 00:09:24,559
面临更多风险

247
00:09:24,559 --> 00:09:25,809
这种超音速

248
00:09:25,809 --> 00:09:27,289
面临海啸级风险

249
00:09:27,289 --> 00:09:28,889
正如埃隆·马斯克所说

250
00:09:28,889 --> 00:09:30,830
但再次强调这只是业务的10%

251
00:09:30,830 --> 00:09:32,450
然后你看到的是QuickBooks

252
00:09:32,450 --> 00:09:34,139
我在想你知道的

253
00:09:34,139 --> 00:09:34,480
就是说

254
00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:34,980
你知道的

255
00:09:34,980 --> 00:09:37,539
当你谈论像会计这样的事情时

256
00:09:37,539 --> 00:09:39,200
你需要一个事实来源

257
00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,919
所以然后人事需要发工资

258
00:09:41,919 --> 00:09:43,279
要确保处理正确

259
00:09:43,279 --> 00:09:45,120
这些是附加解决方案

260
00:09:45,120 --> 00:09:45,759
你知道的

261
00:09:45,759 --> 00:09:46,360
支付账单

262
00:09:46,360 --> 00:09:47,669
支付和类似事务

263
00:09:47,669 --> 00:09:50,070
这些都是经营企业的重要环节

264
00:09:50,070 --> 00:09:54,279
我认为Intuit的这部分业务非常粘性

265
00:09:54,279 --> 00:09:55,779
很难断言

266
00:09:55,779 --> 00:09:57,840
AI会一夜之间取代这些

267
00:09:57,840 --> 00:09:58,320
然而

268
00:09:58,320 --> 00:09:59,919
像Mailchimp和营销

269
00:09:59,919 --> 00:10:00,980
我认为

270
00:10:00,980 --> 00:10:03,940
这也是全球化业务解决方案的一部分

271
00:10:03,940 --> 00:10:08,700
至少60%的业务非常稳固

272
00:10:08,700 --> 00:10:11,000
但其中三分之一

273
00:10:11,000 --> 00:10:14,190
我认为这部分将面临真正挑战

274
00:10:14,190 --> 00:10:16,409
有些人甚至会说丹尼尔

275
00:10:16,409 --> 00:10:21,370
你对全球化业务解决方案过于宽容

276
00:10:21,649 --> 00:10:23,090
那么问题来了

277
00:10:23,090 --> 00:10:25,330
现在是否应该买入股票

278
00:10:25,330 --> 00:10:29,000
现在它已经大幅下跌

279
00:10:29,000 --> 00:10:30,379
这些都不是投资建议

280
00:10:30,379 --> 00:10:33,279
我只是分享我的个人经历

281
00:10:33,279 --> 00:10:35,068
顺便推荐一下

282
00:10:36,519 --> 00:10:39,100
Rahman上周刚写

283
00:10:39,100 --> 00:10:40,039
就在上周

284
00:10:40,039 --> 00:10:40,759
几天前

285
00:10:40,759 --> 00:10:43,360
我说他从你的流程中学到了很多

286
00:10:43,360 --> 00:10:44,899
如何升级会员

287
00:10:44,899 --> 00:10:47,240
如何升级会员成为高级会员

288
00:10:47,240 --> 00:10:50,139
因为他想加入社区

289
00:10:50,139 --> 00:10:51,620
我可以回答问题

290
00:10:51,620 --> 00:10:53,700
大家也可以分享观点

291
00:10:53,700 --> 00:10:56,779
这紧随乔·R之后

292
00:10:56,779 --> 00:10:58,509
感谢你的见解

293
00:10:58,509 --> 00:11:00,990
我几乎赚了一百万美元

294
00:11:00,990 --> 00:11:02,450
跟随你的投资旅程

295
00:11:02,450 --> 00:11:04,029
如果你在寻找优质投资思路

296
00:11:04,029 --> 00:11:06,750
来查看Unrivaled Investing

297
00:11:06,750 --> 00:11:07,990
还有Flash

298
00:11:07,990 --> 00:11:09,470
我是联合创始人之一

299
00:11:09,470 --> 00:11:10,389
我们正在利用

300
00:11:10,389 --> 00:11:13,350
AI不仅影响税务

301
00:11:13,350 --> 00:11:14,799
但这不仅仅是

302
00:11:14,799 --> 00:11:18,980
我认为如果投资领域也要发生革命的话

303
00:11:18,980 --> 00:11:19,919
所以你可以查看

304
00:11:19,919 --> 00:11:20,539
下方闪电链接

305
00:11:20,539 --> 00:11:23,840
链接免费提供全球任何公司的分析服务

306
00:11:23,840 --> 00:11:27,230
现在我们还提供组合监控服务

307
00:11:27,230 --> 00:11:29,230
这样你可以获得

308
00:11:29,230 --> 00:11:30,950
你的投资组合分析

309
00:11:30,950 --> 00:11:33,350
这就是对你的投资组合分析

310
00:11:33,350 --> 00:11:35,190
包括潜在的利弊

311
00:11:35,190 --> 00:11:36,240
潜在风险

312
00:11:36,240 --> 00:11:37,419
潜在新思路

313
00:11:37,419 --> 00:11:39,240
所以我认为存在这种

314
00:11:39,240 --> 00:11:44,220
你应该抓住这波浪潮并思考如何让它助力个人发展

315
00:11:44,220 --> 00:11:48,090
此内容为闪电付费订阅用户专享

316
00:11:48,090 --> 00:11:49,590
请查看下方链接

317
00:11:49,590 --> 00:11:51,090
当我思考Intuit公司时

318
00:11:51,090 --> 00:11:52,789
作为订阅用户已知

319
00:11:52,789 --> 00:11:54,990
我有一个非常简洁的检查清单

320
00:11:54,990 --> 00:11:56,970
这份无与伦比的投资检查清单

321
00:12:01,070 --> 00:12:04,029
最重要的一点是管理层对齐

322
00:12:04,029 --> 00:12:05,730
然后我会查看内部抛售情况

323
00:12:05,730 --> 00:12:08,809
并观察超过一亿美元

324
00:12:08,809 --> 00:12:12,750
过去一年有数百亿美元内部抛售

325
00:12:13,110 --> 00:12:15,429
这并不令人感到安心

326
00:12:15,429 --> 00:12:20,309
我注意到没有很强的股东支持

327
00:12:20,309 --> 00:12:26,990
CEO阿里的持股约一亿美元

328
00:12:26,990 --> 00:12:31,250
但这些股份来自近年获得的股权

329
00:12:31,250 --> 00:12:32,720
你可以看到去年

330
00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:36,620
他几乎获得了近四千万美元

331
00:12:36,620 --> 00:12:37,080
是的

332
00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,240
其中仅有一百万是薪资

333
00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:40,200
是的

334
00:12:40,200 --> 00:12:41,419
现金激励

335
00:12:41,419 --> 00:12:43,839
奖金仅为两百六十万

336
00:12:43,839 --> 00:12:48,960
大部分薪酬与

337
00:12:48,960 --> 00:12:50,820
股权相关

338
00:12:50,820 --> 00:12:52,120
但我仍然关注这一点

339
00:12:52,120 --> 00:12:53,600
我仍看到他

340
00:12:53,600 --> 00:12:56,139
今年早些时候抛售了数千万美元

341
00:12:56,139 --> 00:12:57,629
这并不真正

342
00:12:57,629 --> 00:12:59,269
没有给我应有的

343
00:12:59,269 --> 00:13:01,210
那种积极感受

344
00:13:01,210 --> 00:13:04,559
我也经常在本频道讨论

345
00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:05,799
我喜欢这种情况

346
00:13:05,799 --> 00:13:10,179
当管理层有重大利益绑定时

347
00:13:10,179 --> 00:13:10,799
不仅仅是说

348
00:13:10,799 --> 00:13:12,240
我过去几年担任CEO

349
00:13:12,240 --> 00:13:13,889
并一直在积累这些股权

350
00:13:13,889 --> 00:13:14,750
你知道优惠券吗

351
00:13:14,750 --> 00:13:20,009
现在我通过限制性股票单位等拥有了价值一亿美元的股权

352
00:13:20,009 --> 00:13:21,169
我看看他的履历

353
00:13:21,169 --> 00:13:24,090
你知道他在这家公司的工作经历

354
00:13:24,090 --> 00:13:27,710
他从大约24岁起就担任领导职务

355
00:13:27,710 --> 00:13:31,289
在这段时间里从未有过一次内部增持

356
00:13:31,289 --> 00:13:35,169
想想这家公司从不买股

357
00:13:35,169 --> 00:13:37,070
甚至在这样的下跌后

358
00:13:37,070 --> 00:13:37,809
完全没有买入动作

359
00:13:37,809 --> 00:13:42,070
我的意思是这简直是明显的信号

360
00:13:42,070 --> 00:13:43,230
如此强烈的信号

361
00:13:43,230 --> 00:13:43,889
你知道的

362
00:13:43,889 --> 00:13:45,590
如果你真的相信自己的公司

363
00:13:45,590 --> 00:13:49,029
让我们看看高管们行动起来

364
00:13:49,029 --> 00:13:49,889
比如说

365
00:13:49,889 --> 00:13:52,909
你拿到了三百万美元现金奖金

366
00:13:52,909 --> 00:13:53,490
你已经

367
00:13:53,490 --> 00:13:55,909
一直在卖出数千万美元的股票

368
00:13:55,909 --> 00:13:59,000
看看这些高管是否增持股票

369
00:13:59,000 --> 00:13:59,820
比如

370
00:13:59,820 --> 00:14:02,149
我们相信未来的征程

371
00:14:02,149 --> 00:14:02,970
如果这样做的话

372
00:14:02,970 --> 00:14:05,990
投资者更容易愿意参与

373
00:14:05,990 --> 00:14:07,190
但我不只是说

374
00:14:07,190 --> 00:14:08,190
像个小打小闹的

375
00:14:08,190 --> 00:14:10,068
我买了百万美元

376
00:14:10,068 --> 00:14:12,068
我想看到千万美元的投入

377
00:14:12,068 --> 00:14:13,229
哦我我加了杠杆

378
00:14:13,229 --> 00:14:14,788
我我借了钱

379
00:14:14,788 --> 00:14:16,169
我想看到一个

380
00:14:16,169 --> 00:14:16,690
你知道的

381
00:14:16,690 --> 00:14:17,710
我想看到CEO

382
00:14:17,710 --> 00:14:18,129
比如说

383
00:14:18,129 --> 00:14:18,450
我是

384
00:14:18,450 --> 00:14:20,190
我在借钱

385
00:14:20,190 --> 00:14:23,179
用两千万美元买这只股票

386
00:14:23,179 --> 00:14:25,480
这种坚定的信念

387
00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:25,879
我们

388
00:14:25,879 --> 00:14:27,759
我们处于另一端

389
00:14:27,759 --> 00:14:29,679
另一端是比如

390
00:14:29,679 --> 00:14:30,639
股票看起来不错

391
00:14:30,639 --> 00:14:33,440
顺便说一句我刚卖了两千万

392
00:14:33,440 --> 00:14:34,399
让我评判你的行动

393
00:14:34,399 --> 00:14:35,909
这可不是

394
00:14:35,909 --> 00:14:38,330
你没有通过管理层对齐测试

395
00:14:38,330 --> 00:14:40,899
当我想到利益绑定

396
00:14:40,899 --> 00:14:42,940
这也是我之前提到的

397
00:14:42,940 --> 00:14:43,980
我喜欢创始人

398
00:14:43,980 --> 00:14:44,519
就像

399
00:14:44,519 --> 00:14:45,759
这就是他们的孩子

400
00:14:45,759 --> 00:14:47,919
这和intuit的情况不同

401
00:14:47,919 --> 00:14:50,720
所以问题显而易见就是增长

402
00:14:51,259 --> 00:14:52,539
我看到一些举措如

403
00:14:52,539 --> 00:14:55,279
他们正在这里谈论建设

404
00:14:55,279 --> 00:15:02,509
这里他们正在谈论全国范围内重塑面对面报税

405
00:15:02,509 --> 00:15:04,049
然后他们混淆了重点

406
00:15:04,049 --> 00:15:08,269
提到他们向纽约市公立学校捐赠了十万笔款项

407
00:15:08,269 --> 00:15:11,019
这与面对面报税毫无关联

408
00:15:11,019 --> 00:15:13,000
这让我觉得

409
00:15:13,000 --> 00:15:16,589
我不认为创始人会这么做

410
00:15:16,589 --> 00:15:19,448
这似乎违背了

411
00:15:19,448 --> 00:15:20,369
这里到底发生了什么

412
00:15:20,369 --> 00:15:21,489
这家公司的业务是

413
00:15:21,489 --> 00:15:24,590
让我们利用AI实现这一目标

414
00:15:24,590 --> 00:15:24,789
现在

415
00:15:24,789 --> 00:15:29,029
他们正在将AI与人类专业知识结合以重塑

416
00:15:29,029 --> 00:15:30,629
这并不让我感到强烈

417
00:15:30,629 --> 00:15:31,629
这不会让我想到

418
00:15:31,629 --> 00:15:32,049
哦对啊

419
00:15:32,049 --> 00:15:33,909
这明显有增长潜力

420
00:15:33,909 --> 00:15:37,250
这并不是我所设想的现在的方式

421
00:15:37,250 --> 00:15:39,240
来自十一月的头条新闻

422
00:15:39,240 --> 00:15:40,980
我觉得这挺有意思的

423
00:15:40,980 --> 00:15:44,100
所以我分享这个的原因是当你有多个不同头条

424
00:15:44,100 --> 00:15:46,330
可能会让你以为你知道

425
00:15:46,330 --> 00:15:49,250
也许你了解管理层

426
00:15:49,250 --> 00:15:50,710
你不想押注他们

427
00:15:50,710 --> 00:15:52,049
或者也许你在说

428
00:15:52,049 --> 00:15:52,750
并不

429
00:15:52,750 --> 00:15:53,889
并不强烈表明

430
00:15:53,889 --> 00:15:57,000
他们真正理解如何在未来扩展业务

431
00:15:57,000 --> 00:15:59,340
更像是沃伦·巴菲特的评论

432
00:15:59,340 --> 00:16:01,120
你想要拥有一个好到

433
00:16:01,120 --> 00:16:03,269
连肉肠三明治都能经营的公司

434
00:16:03,269 --> 00:16:04,190
或者类似的话

435
00:16:04,190 --> 00:16:06,490
我认为那是他常用的俚语

436
00:16:06,490 --> 00:16:11,029
而intuit到目前为止一直是这种情况

437
00:16:11,029 --> 00:16:14,860
有某种不完全对齐的人

438
00:16:14,860 --> 00:16:16,440
在经营公司

439
00:16:16,440 --> 00:16:18,620
我认为这就是你看到的情况

440
00:16:18,620 --> 00:16:19,980
但这是挑战

441
00:16:19,980 --> 00:16:24,490
当你面临人工智能带来的生存风险时

442
00:16:24,490 --> 00:16:26,149
由于人工智能

443
00:16:26,149 --> 00:16:28,129
业务的持久性

444
00:16:28,129 --> 00:16:31,279
自由现金流变得不确定

445
00:16:31,279 --> 00:16:34,200
因此估值倍数在收缩

446
00:16:34,200 --> 00:16:38,039
这就是我开始这段视频谈论估值收缩的原因

447
00:16:38,039 --> 00:16:39,529
所以问题来了

448
00:16:39,529 --> 00:16:41,090
如何重回正轨

449
00:16:41,090 --> 00:16:41,850
你该如何前进

450
00:16:41,850 --> 00:16:43,870
这里明显有增长

451
00:16:43,870 --> 00:16:45,070
如果存在明显的增长

452
00:16:45,070 --> 00:16:47,289
企业更可能具备持续性

453
00:16:47,289 --> 00:16:49,919
因此估值倍数会扩大

454
00:16:49,919 --> 00:16:52,700
这个标题我觉得挺有意思的

455
00:16:52,700 --> 00:17:00,129
他们正与Riemann合作推动中端市场业务增长

456
00:17:00,129 --> 00:17:03,350
从我之前作为CFO的经验来看

457
00:17:03,350 --> 00:17:05,970
你知道我帮助一家支付公司发展

458
00:17:05,970 --> 00:17:09,839
从几百万到几百万营收增长

459
00:17:09,839 --> 00:17:13,789
在几年内将营收做到三四十万美元

460
00:17:13,789 --> 00:17:16,609
在我任职期间我们剥离了

461
00:17:16,609 --> 00:17:18,390
我们淘汰了QuickBooks

462
00:17:18,390 --> 00:17:21,559
改用其他解决方案

463
00:17:22,359 --> 00:17:28,890
QuickBooks面临的主要挑战之一

464
00:17:28,890 --> 00:17:31,369
是它主要面向小型企业

465
00:17:32,369 --> 00:17:35,029
所以如果能利用AI

466
00:17:35,029 --> 00:17:43,359
构建适合中大型企业的功能

467
00:17:43,359 --> 00:17:47,009
转向更昂贵的企业级方案

468
00:17:47,009 --> 00:17:53,220
如果Intuit能这么说

469
00:17:53,220 --> 00:18:00,140
我们将与Oracle等巨头竞争ERP解决方案

470
00:18:00,140 --> 00:18:01,519
这样一来

471
00:18:01,519 --> 00:18:02,920
每当小型

472
00:18:02,920 --> 00:18:05,339
公司使用QuickBooks起步

473
00:18:05,339 --> 00:18:08,119
他们将使用我们处理薪资

474
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,680
使用我们的融资方案

475
00:18:10,680 --> 00:18:12,880
顺便说一句当他们发展时

476
00:18:12,880 --> 00:18:15,759
我们将准备满足他们的需求

477
00:18:15,759 --> 00:18:16,140
我们能够

478
00:18:16,140 --> 00:18:20,759
并且能真正简化财务规划

479
00:18:20,759 --> 00:18:22,339
各种解决方案

480
00:18:23,339 --> 00:18:25,240
这确实让我感兴趣

481
00:18:25,240 --> 00:18:26,500
因为他们说看吧

482
00:18:26,500 --> 00:18:27,119
你知道的

483
00:18:27,119 --> 00:18:27,900
长期以来

484
00:18:27,900 --> 00:18:29,660
太久以来

485
00:18:29,660 --> 00:18:31,059
市场

486
00:18:31,059 --> 00:18:32,420
对于中型

487
00:18:32,420 --> 00:18:34,140
中大型企业

488
00:18:34,140 --> 00:18:35,079
一直由这些传统系统服务

489
00:18:35,079 --> 00:18:37,750
这些企业资源计划系统

490
00:18:37,750 --> 00:18:40,769
价格昂贵

491
00:18:40,769 --> 00:18:42,829
安装耗时

492
00:18:42,829 --> 00:18:45,200
安装成本高且复杂

493
00:18:45,200 --> 00:18:50,449
或许我们可以利用不同应用或自行开发

494
00:18:50,449 --> 00:18:52,848
这样我们就能进入这个领域

495
00:18:52,848 --> 00:18:56,108
这可能成为业务增长驱动力

496
00:18:56,108 --> 00:18:58,150
随着他们向上拓展市场

497
00:18:58,150 --> 00:19:00,769
这是一个非常引人注目的发展

498
00:19:00,769 --> 00:19:03,130
我很好奇他们能否成功

499
00:19:03,130 --> 00:19:04,529
当我们审视他们的业务

500
00:19:04,529 --> 00:19:06,490
聚焦QuickBooks业务

501
00:19:06,490 --> 00:19:08,089
在我看来

502
00:19:08,089 --> 00:19:09,650
这是一个非常稳健的业务

503
00:19:09,650 --> 00:19:10,809
你可以看到去年的数据

504
00:19:10,809 --> 00:19:11,269
我是说看吧

505
00:19:11,269 --> 00:19:13,890
这是一个年增长约20%的业务

506
00:19:13,890 --> 00:19:15,920
这非常棒

507
00:19:15,920 --> 00:19:17,599
当你观察

508
00:19:17,599 --> 00:19:20,579
这就是全球商业解决方案

509
00:19:20,579 --> 00:19:24,940
并且主要分为QuickBooks业务

510
00:19:24,940 --> 00:19:30,170
正如我之前提到的，它具有很强的粘性并提供在线服务

511
00:19:30,170 --> 00:19:32,029
在线服务概念比较模糊

512
00:19:32,029 --> 00:19:34,960
这些都是附加在QuickBooks上的功能

513
00:19:34,960 --> 00:19:38,309
你可以考虑资金服务如支付处理

514
00:19:38,309 --> 00:19:39,230
账单支付

515
00:19:39,230 --> 00:19:40,910
可能还有融资解决方案

516
00:19:40,910 --> 00:19:43,369
因为他们能查看你的财务数据

517
00:19:43,369 --> 00:19:44,109
所以他们可以说

518
00:19:44,109 --> 00:19:46,529
我们可以提供完全匹配的贷款

519
00:19:46,529 --> 00:19:48,309
然后是薪资解决方案

520
00:19:48,309 --> 00:19:49,589
接着是营销服务

521
00:19:49,589 --> 00:19:50,849
比如Mailchimp

522
00:19:50,849 --> 00:19:51,609
营销自动化

523
00:19:51,609 --> 00:19:54,000
这些都属于在线服务

524
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,880
这部分业务增长也非常迅速

525
00:19:55,880 --> 00:20:03,109
因此我认为他们在QuickBooks的在线生态系统表现很好

526
00:20:03,109 --> 00:20:06,089
以及周边的次要业务

527
00:20:06,089 --> 00:20:07,309
这非常令人印象深刻

528
00:20:07,309 --> 00:20:11,599
这也是他们仍能在关键领域保持强劲增长的原因

529
00:20:11,599 --> 00:20:12,859
但正如我之前提到的

530
00:20:12,859 --> 00:20:15,019
其他业务板块面临更多挑战

531
00:20:15,019 --> 00:20:18,200
当你考虑消费者业务时

532
00:20:18,200 --> 00:20:19,799
比如TurboTax

533
00:20:19,799 --> 00:20:22,720
这个领域肯定会面临阻力

534
00:20:22,720 --> 00:20:23,809
目前尚未显现

535
00:20:23,809 --> 00:20:27,369
但我认为AI的影响还未真正显现

536
00:20:27,369 --> 00:20:27,670
目前

537
00:20:27,670 --> 00:20:30,650
这里将出现价格压力

538
00:20:30,650 --> 00:20:32,970
还会受到Credit Karma的冲击

539
00:20:32,970 --> 00:20:35,950
这现在已经占业务总量的30%

540
00:20:35,950 --> 00:20:38,329
再次回到Flash我的分析

541
00:20:38,329 --> 00:20:38,769
你知道的

542
00:20:38,769 --> 00:20:41,730
AI免费分析工具

543
00:20:41,730 --> 00:20:44,410
指出这里的潜在空间巨大

544
00:20:44,410 --> 00:20:45,650
预计60%

545
00:20:45,650 --> 00:20:46,920
最低情景下的增长空间

546
00:20:46,920 --> 00:20:47,920
最高可达400%

547
00:20:47,920 --> 00:20:48,299
以上

548
00:20:48,299 --> 00:20:49,819
最高情景下的增长空间

549
00:20:49,819 --> 00:20:51,400
这非常看涨

550
00:20:51,400 --> 00:20:53,029
AI评估

551
00:20:53,029 --> 00:20:56,470
这是基于今年管理层的指引

552
00:20:56,470 --> 00:20:58,069
从盈利情况来看

553
00:20:58,069 --> 00:21:00,950
仅凭这份指引就有点可疑

554
00:21:00,950 --> 00:21:04,109
因为它包含股票期权补偿

555
00:21:04,109 --> 00:21:07,308
说实话，这又是个例子

556
00:21:07,308 --> 00:21:09,009
你大概能感受到

557
00:21:09,009 --> 00:21:11,848
我对这里的管理层不太信任

558
00:21:11,848 --> 00:21:13,328
你看他们

559
00:21:13,328 --> 00:21:13,960
他们应该

560
00:21:15,439 --> 00:21:15,959
并不

561
00:21:15,959 --> 00:21:17,278
谁都想成为大男孩

562
00:21:17,278 --> 00:21:18,318
总有一天要长大

563
00:21:18,318 --> 00:21:19,878
如果正在看的姑娘们知道

564
00:21:19,878 --> 00:21:21,298
这只是我观众中的一小部分

565
00:21:21,298 --> 00:21:22,569
不过无论如何

566
00:21:22,569 --> 00:21:23,890
不想长大吗

567
00:21:23,890 --> 00:21:25,670
我想大家都不想当小孩

568
00:21:25,670 --> 00:21:27,910
总有一天没人想当孩子

569
00:21:27,910 --> 00:21:29,349
你知道那种无力感

570
00:21:29,349 --> 00:21:32,005
父母总是管着你

571
00:21:32,380 --> 00:21:36,400
在大男孩俱乐部穿大男孩裤子

572
00:21:36,400 --> 00:21:37,539
说你知道吗

573
00:21:37,539 --> 00:21:39,349
我们不会编造数据

574
00:21:39,349 --> 00:21:40,390
我们不会说

575
00:21:40,390 --> 00:21:40,769
是的

576
00:21:40,769 --> 00:21:44,309
我们要加回20亿美元的股票期权补偿

577
00:21:44,309 --> 00:21:45,349
这就是他们正在做的

578
00:21:45,349 --> 00:21:46,190
他们仍在

579
00:21:46,190 --> 00:21:47,690
这让我震惊

580
00:21:47,690 --> 00:21:48,589
竟有这样一家公司

581
00:21:48,589 --> 00:21:50,630
创造真实利润

582
00:21:50,630 --> 00:21:55,259
今年预计盈利17-18亿美元

583
00:21:55,259 --> 00:21:56,619
这就是他们的预期

584
00:21:56,619 --> 00:21:58,279
这才是真实数字

585
00:21:58,279 --> 00:21:59,839
这两三个亿的差额

586
00:21:59,839 --> 00:22:02,539
18到23亿美元的差距

587
00:22:02,539 --> 00:22:04,480
这个差距来自管理层

588
00:22:04,480 --> 00:22:05,319
说吧

589
00:22:05,319 --> 00:22:07,829
我要再穿尿布了

590
00:22:07,829 --> 00:22:10,170
穿上真裤子，说看这个

591
00:22:10,170 --> 00:22:10,470
这些

592
00:22:10,470 --> 00:22:11,910
这些才是真实盈利

593
00:22:11,910 --> 00:22:14,059
这才是真实业务

594
00:22:14,059 --> 00:22:14,460
你知道的

595
00:22:14,460 --> 00:22:15,019
我不想

596
00:22:15,019 --> 00:22:15,359
你知道的

597
00:22:15,359 --> 00:22:18,059
欺骗股东说

598
00:22:18,059 --> 00:22:18,299
是的

599
00:22:18,299 --> 00:22:19,519
这股票期权补偿

600
00:22:19,519 --> 00:22:20,579
这不是真实支出

601
00:22:20,579 --> 00:22:21,888
这是一项真实支出

602
00:22:21,888 --> 00:22:25,028
而且你仍然有巨额的股票薪酬

603
00:22:25,028 --> 00:22:26,529
醒醒吧

604
00:22:26,529 --> 00:22:28,589
感谢你听完这段长篇大论

605
00:22:28,589 --> 00:22:29,089
呃

606
00:22:29,089 --> 00:22:30,390
现在来看这个

607
00:22:30,390 --> 00:22:31,569
让我们从头开始

608
00:22:31,569 --> 00:22:32,659
这又是

609
00:22:32,659 --> 00:22:34,659
你知道在分析财报时

610
00:22:34,659 --> 00:22:36,909
预测两到三美元的收益

611
00:22:36,909 --> 00:22:40,180
这样的估值倍数和长期增长率是多少

612
00:22:40,180 --> 00:22:42,599
最悲观情形假设年增长率为7%

613
00:22:42,599 --> 00:22:44,920
长期维持个位数高增长

614
00:22:44,920 --> 00:22:46,529
乐观情形假设高个位数增长

615
00:22:46,529 --> 00:22:49,250
基准情形假设低个位数增长

616
00:22:49,250 --> 00:22:52,690
真正棘手的部分在于

617
00:22:52,690 --> 00:22:52,970
这里的关键是

618
00:22:52,970 --> 00:22:57,319
我认为AI的思考不够准确

619
00:22:57,319 --> 00:22:57,799
我打算

620
00:22:57,799 --> 00:22:59,640
我要深入分析自己的产品

621
00:22:59,640 --> 00:23:00,519
比如在闪存领域

622
00:23:00,519 --> 00:23:00,640
这里

623
00:23:00,640 --> 00:23:01,500
我是联合创始人

624
00:23:01,500 --> 00:23:02,099
我作为

625
00:23:02,099 --> 00:23:05,509
我认为AI没有足够保守

626
00:23:05,509 --> 00:23:07,869
反映潜在的行业颠覆风险

627
00:23:07,869 --> 00:23:09,960
如果没有明显的增长

628
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:11,359
像以往那样的尾部增长

629
00:23:11,359 --> 00:23:16,200
未来很难获得3-5倍的估值

630
00:23:16,200 --> 00:23:18,259
所以我直接排除这个

631
00:23:18,259 --> 00:23:22,529
然后18倍市盈率是否合理

632
00:23:22,529 --> 00:23:25,569
像23倍市盈率或23倍收益

633
00:23:25,569 --> 00:23:27,740
但其中大部分是股票薪酬

634
00:23:27,740 --> 00:23:30,140
鉴于大部分是股票薪酬

635
00:23:30,140 --> 00:23:32,829
或许应调整到15倍左右

636
00:23:32,829 --> 00:23:37,730
如果7%增长更接近基准情形

637
00:23:37,730 --> 00:23:39,309
相比基准情形的

638
00:23:39,309 --> 00:23:44,009
假设长期增长12%左右，估值30%

639
00:23:44,009 --> 00:23:44,849
总体而言

640
00:23:44,849 --> 00:23:46,900
我认为AI在这里有些

641
00:23:46,900 --> 00:23:48,480
过于依赖过去数据

642
00:23:48,480 --> 00:23:49,099
说实在的

643
00:23:49,099 --> 00:23:50,700
这是公司过去的运营状态

644
00:23:50,700 --> 00:23:51,380
这并不令人意外

645
00:23:51,380 --> 00:23:52,640
未来可能依然存在

646
00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:54,660
这让我有些难以接受

647
00:23:54,660 --> 00:23:56,720
当我思考这个业务时

648
00:23:56,720 --> 00:23:59,079
它交易在高个位数市盈率

649
00:23:59,079 --> 00:24:01,170
低二十倍左右的收益

650
00:24:01,170 --> 00:24:02,349
多重且坦率地说

651
00:24:07,349 --> 00:24:07,910
你知道的

652
00:24:07,910 --> 00:24:12,619
也许他们能保持增长维持在青少年水平

653
00:24:12,819 --> 00:24:17,460
也许他们会在业务约三分之一领域面临真实压力

654
00:24:17,460 --> 00:24:20,180
而他们的全球业务解决方案

655
00:24:20,180 --> 00:24:23,700
QuickBooks 60% 仍能保持良好增长

656
00:24:23,700 --> 00:24:25,400
其他部分则趋于停滞

657
00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:29,910
这种情况下他们的增长率可能仅接近5%

658
00:24:29,910 --> 00:24:33,230
我也不太愿意认为这家企业可能

659
00:24:33,230 --> 00:24:35,769
长期估值达到三十倍或更高

660
00:24:35,769 --> 00:24:41,029
因此我认为十五到二十五倍是更保守的估值

661
00:24:41,029 --> 00:24:44,259
尤其考虑到不确定性

662
00:24:44,259 --> 00:24:48,259
能否出现真正为用户工作的AI代理

663
00:24:48,259 --> 00:24:50,279
未来可能颠覆部分业务

664
00:24:50,279 --> 00:24:52,849
当我权衡利弊时

665
00:24:52,849 --> 00:24:54,150
我认为这种情形

666
00:24:54,150 --> 00:24:57,880
未来几年可能接近收支平衡

667
00:24:57,880 --> 00:25:02,480
在乐观情况下可能达到100%至200%的涨幅

668
00:25:02,480 --> 00:25:04,680
这相当合理

669
00:25:04,680 --> 00:25:07,700
我说这并非完全疯狂的 upside

670
00:25:07,700 --> 00:25:08,339
极具吸引力

671
00:25:08,339 --> 00:25:11,700
这就是我需要审视的情况

672
00:25:11,700 --> 00:25:14,909
最终决策需看管理层表现

673
00:25:14,909 --> 00:25:16,890
你是否认可管理层

674
00:25:16,890 --> 00:25:19,049
我已经隐约表达了

675
00:25:19,049 --> 00:25:20,230
我对这并不太看好

676
00:25:20,230 --> 00:25:24,390
我更希望看到他们立即投入2000万美元

677
00:25:24,390 --> 00:25:26,339
并且由创始人主导

678
00:25:26,339 --> 00:25:28,099
市面上已有足够多公司

679
00:25:28,099 --> 00:25:29,500
存在数千家公司

680
00:25:29,500 --> 00:25:32,430
你可以找到更确定的业务

681
00:25:32,430 --> 00:25:35,460
这些企业能抵御AI冲击

682
00:25:35,460 --> 00:25:39,380
甚至可能借助有利趋势

683
00:25:39,380 --> 00:25:42,579
即便未来面临巨大变革

684
00:25:42,579 --> 00:25:44,359
如果你喜欢这个视频

685
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,279
请务必点赞支持

686
00:25:46,279 --> 00:25:47,140
点击订阅按钮

687
00:25:47,140 --> 00:25:47,779
我是丹尼尔

688
00:25:47,779 --> 00:25:48,539
你正在观看

689
00:25:48,539 --> 00:25:49,579
无与伦比

690
00:25:49,579 --> 00:25:50,240
投资

691
00:25:50,240 --> 00:25:51,660
感谢观看

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