BV1tFRDBoEu2 · 请不要叫我梁同学1 00:00:00,040 --> 00:00:02,040 一边是纳指继续逼空历史高位 2 00:00:02,040 --> 00:00:03,379 AI链条全面加速 3 00:00:03,379 --> 00:00:04,879 另一边却是利率通胀 4 00:00:04,879 --> 00:00:07,339 地缘政治和估值泡沫同时升温 5 00:00:07,339 --> 00:00:10,140 很多人现在最大的错觉就是指数还在涨 6 00:00:10,140 --> 00:00:11,460 所以风险不存在 7 00:00:11,460 --> 00:00:12,500 但是实际上 8 00:00:12,500 --> 00:00:13,699 2026年的美股 9 00:00:13,699 --> 00:00:16,179 已经开始进入一个非常危险的阶段 10 00:00:16,179 --> 00:00:17,019 指数越涨 11 00:00:17,019 --> 00:00:18,460 市场内部的分化越大 12 00:00:18,460 --> 00:00:19,320 AI越疯狂 13 00:00:19,320 --> 00:00:20,679 资金抱团业绩单 14 00:00:20,679 --> 00:00:22,739 而一旦核心权重开始松动 15 00:00:22,739 --> 00:00:26,070 整个高估值结构的脆弱性可能会瞬间暴雷 16 00:00:26,070 --> 00:00:27,230 今天这期视频 17 00:00:27,230 --> 00:00:30,149 我们就来完整复盘一下5月7号的美股市场 18 00:00:30,149 --> 00:00:31,390 并且重点拆解 19 00:00:31,390 --> 00:00:32,729 为什么现在的市场 20 00:00:32,729 --> 00:00:35,570 本质上已经进入了流动性驱动末期 21 00:00:35,570 --> 00:00:39,170 为什么AI产业链正在出现强者恒强的虹吸效应 22 00:00:39,170 --> 00:00:41,689 中东有价长期收益率降息预期 23 00:00:41,689 --> 00:00:44,200 接下来会如何冲击科技股的估值 24 00:00:44,200 --> 00:00:45,579 Qq q s spy 25 00:00:45,579 --> 00:00:48,500 以及市场上目前大家最关心的核心个股 26 00:00:48,500 --> 00:00:50,420 接下来到底该怎么看 27 00:00:50,420 --> 00:00:51,659 记得看到最后 28 00:00:51,659 --> 00:00:54,380 因为今天很多技术位已经开始决定 29 00:00:54,380 --> 00:00:56,670 接下来两到三周的美股方向 30 00:00:56,670 --> 00:00:57,590 hi朋友们 31 00:00:57,590 --> 00:00:58,950 欢迎来到ruby投资笔记 32 00:00:58,950 --> 00:01:00,549 我是你们的老朋友ruby 33 00:01:00,549 --> 00:01:02,350 那在本期视频开始之前呢 34 00:01:02,350 --> 00:01:03,719 我要和大家说明一下 35 00:01:03,719 --> 00:01:05,140 本视频的所有内容 36 00:01:05,140 --> 00:01:07,359 仅为个人研究和市场分析分享 37 00:01:07,359 --> 00:01:08,840 不构成任何投资建议 38 00:01:08,840 --> 00:01:09,859 市场有风险 39 00:01:09,859 --> 00:01:11,420 投资需要独立判断 40 00:01:11,420 --> 00:01:13,859 那我们先来看一下整体的市场 41 00:01:13,859 --> 00:01:15,659 截至前一个交易日收盘 42 00:01:15,659 --> 00:01:18,420 美股整体仍然维持风险偏好主导结构 43 00:01:18,420 --> 00:01:20,459 其中纳斯达克继续维持强势 44 00:01:20,459 --> 00:01:22,519 AI半导体继续成为核心主线 45 00:01:22,519 --> 00:01:23,459 英特尔博通 46 00:01:23,459 --> 00:01:26,120 迈威尔等AI硬件链资金持续抱团 47 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,680 而传统防御板块开始明显跑输 48 00:01:28,680 --> 00:01:31,200 那目前市场最关心的核心交易逻辑 49 00:01:31,200 --> 00:01:32,319 其实只有一句话 50 00:01:32,319 --> 00:01:34,579 AI的资本开支还没有结束 51 00:01:34,579 --> 00:01:35,900 那这意味着什么呢 52 00:01:35,900 --> 00:01:37,219 意味着微软metal 53 00:01:37,219 --> 00:01:37,540 谷歌 54 00:01:37,540 --> 00:01:40,750 亚马逊这些超大厂还在继续疯狂烧钱 55 00:01:40,750 --> 00:01:43,810 而整个市场现在交易的不是当前的盈利 56 00:01:43,810 --> 00:01:47,159 而是未来两到3年的AI基础实施垄断权 57 00:01:47,159 --> 00:01:49,340 这也是为什么博通不断创新高 58 00:01:49,340 --> 00:01:50,599 光模块持续爆发 59 00:01:50,599 --> 00:01:52,930 ASS链条持续被资金追捧 60 00:01:52,930 --> 00:01:55,370 光通信公司的估值在不断抬升 61 00:01:55,370 --> 00:01:57,049 因为市场已经开始默认 62 00:01:57,049 --> 00:01:59,750 AI算力需求未来几年都不会降温 63 00:01:59,750 --> 00:02:01,129 但问题就在这里 64 00:02:01,129 --> 00:02:02,049 市场越一致 65 00:02:02,049 --> 00:02:03,329 风险其实越大 66 00:02:03,329 --> 00:02:05,829 当前市场最大的宏观风险是什么 67 00:02:05,829 --> 00:02:09,050 很多朋友们现在忽略了三个非常危险的问题 68 00:02:09,050 --> 00:02:11,530 第一是长债收益率重新上行 69 00:02:11,530 --> 00:02:15,069 现在10年期美债收益率已经重新逼近高位区域 70 00:02:15,069 --> 00:02:16,669 而科技股的这轮上涨 71 00:02:16,669 --> 00:02:19,120 本质上是远期现金流估值扩张 72 00:02:19,120 --> 00:02:19,879 换句话说 73 00:02:19,879 --> 00:02:22,960 就是现在的AI公司之所以能维持高PEE 74 00:02:22,960 --> 00:02:25,789 靠的是市场相信未来利润会非常大 75 00:02:25,789 --> 00:02:28,030 但是如果长端利率继续上行 76 00:02:28,030 --> 00:02:30,819 就意味着未来现金流折现率就会上升 77 00:02:30,819 --> 00:02:34,310 那么高估值科技股理论估值就会开始被压缩 78 00:02:34,310 --> 00:02:36,969 这一点对于QQQ半导体AI软件 79 00:02:36,969 --> 00:02:39,009 光模块影响都非常明显 80 00:02:39,009 --> 00:02:41,389 第二个危险点是油价和地缘风险 81 00:02:41,389 --> 00:02:43,939 那最近中东局势开始重新扰乱市场 82 00:02:43,939 --> 00:02:45,699 而油价一旦重新上行 83 00:02:47,740 --> 00:02:49,149 而是二次通胀 84 00:02:49,149 --> 00:02:51,329 因为如果能源重新推高通胀 85 00:02:51,329 --> 00:02:53,599 美联储降息的空间就会被压缩 86 00:02:53,599 --> 00:02:55,400 一旦市场开始重新交易 87 00:02:55,400 --> 00:02:56,259 高利率更久 88 00:02:56,259 --> 00:02:59,620 那么高估值AI资产会面临非常明显的估值波动 89 00:02:59,620 --> 00:03:02,960 第三个风险点是AI的交易开始出现过度拥挤 90 00:03:02,960 --> 00:03:04,610 这一点其实最危险 91 00:03:04,610 --> 00:03:06,550 现在整个市场已经进入了 92 00:03:06,550 --> 00:03:08,740 只说靠少数AI权重撑着涨 93 00:03:08,740 --> 00:03:11,180 你会发现博通新高老迈威尔新高 94 00:03:11,180 --> 00:03:12,419 老英特尔也暴涨 95 00:03:12,419 --> 00:03:14,389 新高光模块继续疯涨 96 00:03:14,389 --> 00:03:17,770 但是很多中小盘其实已经开始明显跟不上 97 00:03:17,770 --> 00:03:20,490 这就说明市场已经不是普涨牛市 98 00:03:20,490 --> 00:03:22,379 而是极度抱团的牛市 99 00:03:22,379 --> 00:03:24,400 这种行情最大的风险就是 100 00:03:24,400 --> 00:03:27,000 一旦核心龙头出现财报不及预期 101 00:03:27,000 --> 00:03:28,729 资金撤退会非常快 102 00:03:28,729 --> 00:03:31,050 所以ruby在这里也要提醒一下大家 103 00:03:31,050 --> 00:03:32,610 千万不要轻易追高 104 00:03:32,610 --> 00:03:35,669 那接下来我们也进入本期视频的核心重点 105 00:03:35,669 --> 00:03:36,770 技术面的分析 106 00:03:36,770 --> 00:03:38,900 我们先来说纳指QQQ 107 00:03:38,900 --> 00:03:41,659 当前的纳指依然是全球最强风险资产 108 00:03:41,659 --> 00:03:42,659 但是技术面上 109 00:03:42,659 --> 00:03:45,449 它已经进入了一个高位超买的区域 110 00:03:45,449 --> 00:03:46,610 从结构上来看 111 00:03:46,610 --> 00:03:49,650 目前的QQQ依然维持着上升趋势完整 112 00:03:49,650 --> 00:03:51,289 且均线多头排列 113 00:03:51,289 --> 00:03:54,009 那现在的市场还是AI权重技术主导 114 00:03:54,009 --> 00:03:57,180 但是短期内它出现了一个量价背离的迹象 115 00:03:57,180 --> 00:03:59,060 也就是说指数创新高 116 00:03:59,060 --> 00:04:01,240 但是部分动能指标开始钝化 117 00:04:01,240 --> 00:04:04,569 这往往也意味着短线可能进入高位震荡 118 00:04:04,569 --> 00:04:07,169 那现在呢我把QQQ短信的关键位置 119 00:04:07,169 --> 00:04:08,250 和大家说一下 120 00:04:08,250 --> 00:04:11,650 它的短线支撑是在690~687附近 121 00:04:11,650 --> 00:04:13,990 强支撑是在680附近 122 00:04:13,990 --> 00:04:17,209 那短期压力整数关口是700附近的区域 123 00:04:17,209 --> 00:04:19,430 极限情绪位是630附近 124 00:04:19,430 --> 00:04:21,389 这是关键的牛熊分界点 125 00:04:21,389 --> 00:04:23,850 现在的话QQQ它并不适合追高 126 00:04:23,850 --> 00:04:27,310 那它更适合是等AI板块分解后的回踩低吸 127 00:04:27,310 --> 00:04:30,310 我们继续来讲一讲s spy spy 128 00:04:30,310 --> 00:04:32,689 它当前依然是维持大趋势的多头 129 00:04:32,689 --> 00:04:34,209 但和QQQ不同的是 130 00:04:34,209 --> 00:04:36,680 s spy现在明显弱于科技权重 131 00:04:36,680 --> 00:04:39,759 因为金融消费防御板块开始脱离指数 132 00:04:39,759 --> 00:04:43,199 s spy目前的问题就在于它上涨的宽度不足 133 00:04:43,199 --> 00:04:44,899 也就是说指数在涨 134 00:04:44,899 --> 00:04:46,899 但是很多股票它其实没有涨 135 00:04:46,899 --> 00:04:49,730 这就属于典型的后周期的牛市特征 136 00:04:49,730 --> 00:04:52,689 那我们现在来更新一下s spy的关键位置 137 00:04:52,689 --> 00:04:55,490 它的短线市政是725~720 138 00:04:55,490 --> 00:04:56,240 这个区间 139 00:04:56,240 --> 00:04:58,809 中期的强支撑是710美元 140 00:04:58,809 --> 00:05:01,149 上方的压力位是740区域 141 00:05:01,149 --> 00:05:03,689 那如果后续长债收益率继续上升 142 00:05:03,689 --> 00:05:07,100 s spy很容易进入高位震荡消化估值阶段 143 00:05:07,100 --> 00:05:09,899 整体操作上还是建议大家耐心等待 144 00:05:09,899 --> 00:05:10,660 回踩完毕 145 00:05:10,660 --> 00:05:13,369 再次上攻之后再去做那两大指数 146 00:05:13,369 --> 00:05:14,088 讲完之后 147 00:05:14,088 --> 00:05:15,829 我再来和大家分享一下 148 00:05:15,829 --> 00:05:18,168 我这两个月研究比较多的一些个股 149 00:05:18,168 --> 00:05:19,069 技术面的现状 150 00:05:19,069 --> 00:05:20,800 我们先来说一下特斯拉 151 00:05:20,800 --> 00:05:23,519 特斯拉现在最大的问题不是汽车销量 152 00:05:23,519 --> 00:05:26,680 而是市场已重新把它当成AI加机器人 153 00:05:26,680 --> 00:05:28,470 加自动驾驶平台的公司 154 00:05:28,470 --> 00:05:30,889 这就意味着它的估值波动会非常大 155 00:05:30,889 --> 00:05:32,310 质疑声也是越来越多 156 00:05:32,310 --> 00:05:33,629 分歧越来越大 157 00:05:33,629 --> 00:05:36,509 目前特斯拉的技术面整体依然偏强 158 00:05:36,509 --> 00:05:38,410 但是高位波动明显扩大 159 00:05:38,410 --> 00:05:40,000 资金博弈非常剧烈 160 00:05:40,000 --> 00:05:41,720 短期的关键支撑是在 161 00:05:41,720 --> 00:05:43,819 390~385附近 162 00:05:43,819 --> 00:05:45,620 强支撑是360美元 163 00:05:45,620 --> 00:05:48,310 上方压力位是420~430 164 00:05:48,310 --> 00:05:50,769 如果能够有效突破430美元 165 00:05:50,769 --> 00:05:53,939 资金可能会重新交易它ROBOTX的预期 166 00:05:53,939 --> 00:05:56,339 那如果跌破了385美元 167 00:05:56,339 --> 00:05:58,500 短线容易进入一个深度洗盘 168 00:05:58,500 --> 00:06:00,540 第二家公司我们来讲讲微软 169 00:06:00,540 --> 00:06:01,399 这家公司 170 00:06:01,399 --> 00:06:04,019 虽然说前段时间的SARS股饱受质疑 171 00:06:04,019 --> 00:06:07,529 但是微软现在依旧是AI商业化最稳的公司之一 172 00:06:07,529 --> 00:06:08,810 although和copy little to 173 00:06:08,810 --> 00:06:11,449 依然是整个AI应用层的核心逻辑 174 00:06:11,449 --> 00:06:15,158 那技术面上微软是属于典型的机构抱团趋势股 175 00:06:15,158 --> 00:06:16,059 目前来看 176 00:06:16,059 --> 00:06:18,538 从底部爬起来后的MSF 177 00:06:18,538 --> 00:06:21,240 进入到一个反弹的上升通道之中 178 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:22,620 趋势依然健康 179 00:06:22,620 --> 00:06:24,759 并且回调承接也非常强 180 00:06:24,759 --> 00:06:27,800 但短期的关键支撑位是在415~400 181 00:06:27,800 --> 00:06:29,740 一十强支撑400美元 182 00:06:29,740 --> 00:06:32,060 上方压力位是430美元附近 183 00:06:32,060 --> 00:06:34,360 也就是说微软只要不跌破400 184 00:06:34,360 --> 00:06:36,389 它的中期结果就没有问题 185 00:06:36,389 --> 00:06:38,269 我今天要讲的第三家公司 186 00:06:38,269 --> 00:06:40,110 是我们频道的老朋友博通 187 00:06:40,110 --> 00:06:43,389 首先呢要先恭喜一直紧跟ruby罗杰的老朋友们 188 00:06:43,389 --> 00:06:45,428 这一波的收益抓的非常扎实 189 00:06:45,428 --> 00:06:48,189 其实早在3月6号市场分歧最大的时候 190 00:06:48,189 --> 00:06:50,329 我就在焦虑圈的内部明确指出 191 00:06:50,329 --> 00:06:52,348 AI投资已经从单纯买卡 192 00:06:52,348 --> 00:06:54,288 进入了系统级协同的新阶段 193 00:06:54,288 --> 00:06:55,369 当时我把博通 194 00:06:55,369 --> 00:06:55,889 英特尔 195 00:06:55,889 --> 00:06:58,740 康宁迈威尔这几家公司打包在一起分析 196 00:06:58,740 --> 00:07:01,360 后面甚至专门出了一期关于他们的视频 197 00:07:01,360 --> 00:07:02,060 核心逻辑 198 00:07:02,060 --> 00:07:05,000 就是看准了定制化芯片和光链路的确定性 199 00:07:05,000 --> 00:07:06,740 现在的市场走势精准 200 00:07:06,740 --> 00:07:09,329 验证了这种从底层技术出发的推演 201 00:07:09,329 --> 00:07:10,649 那有朋友可能说了 202 00:07:10,649 --> 00:07:11,850 这只是我的运气好 203 00:07:11,850 --> 00:07:13,610 但是看对一次是运气 204 00:07:13,610 --> 00:07:14,850 但能够持续看对 205 00:07:14,850 --> 00:07:17,060 我靠的是一套独立的研究框架 206 00:07:17,060 --> 00:07:19,180 如果你不想只是机械的听代码 207 00:07:19,180 --> 00:07:22,459 而是想掌握这种前瞻性的深度研报和测试逻辑 208 00:07:22,459 --> 00:07:24,379 欢迎点击评论区置顶链接 209 00:07:24,379 --> 00:07:25,949 加入我们的交流俱乐部 210 00:07:25,949 --> 00:07:27,629 那现在我们回到正题 211 00:07:27,629 --> 00:07:29,089 讲我们的技术分析 212 00:07:29,089 --> 00:07:30,649 既然逻辑已经验证 213 00:07:30,649 --> 00:07:34,089 我们现在最需要关注的是在高位加速的阶段 214 00:07:34,089 --> 00:07:36,449 这些核心标的的头顶位和加仓位 215 00:07:36,449 --> 00:07:37,189 在哪里 216 00:07:37,189 --> 00:07:38,850 我们先来看一下博通 217 00:07:38,850 --> 00:07:41,629 博通这家公司现在已经是定制化芯片 218 00:07:41,629 --> 00:07:43,639 AC的第一核心资产 219 00:07:43,639 --> 00:07:45,379 市场现在给他高估值 220 00:07:45,379 --> 00:07:46,439 本质上是在交易 221 00:07:46,439 --> 00:07:48,408 未来超大厂自研AI芯片 222 00:07:48,408 --> 00:07:50,769 包括谷歌的tpu matter的AIS 223 00:07:50,769 --> 00:07:52,028 定制AI加速器 224 00:07:52,028 --> 00:07:53,740 博通全部深度绑定 225 00:07:53,740 --> 00:07:54,860 技术面上来看 226 00:07:54,860 --> 00:07:57,788 这是目前整个半导体里最强的趋势股之一 227 00:07:57,788 --> 00:08:00,608 那他的关键位置是短线支撑400美元 228 00:08:00,608 --> 00:08:02,189 强支撑380美元 229 00:08:02,189 --> 00:08:03,899 压力位440美元 230 00:08:03,899 --> 00:08:05,579 只要AI资本开支不崩 231 00:08:05,579 --> 00:08:07,699 那博通的逻辑就很难结束 232 00:08:07,699 --> 00:08:08,939 第四大公司的话 233 00:08:08,939 --> 00:08:10,189 我们来讲讲英特尔 234 00:08:10,189 --> 00:08:13,089 英特尔是目前市场情绪最夸张的股票之一 235 00:08:13,089 --> 00:08:15,009 因为现在市场开始重新交易 236 00:08:15,009 --> 00:08:17,490 英特尔重新回归AI核心供应链 237 00:08:17,490 --> 00:08:19,370 包括它的先进封装方坠 238 00:08:19,370 --> 00:08:20,850 AIPC政策补贴 239 00:08:20,850 --> 00:08:22,670 这几个利好因素叠加在一起 240 00:08:22,670 --> 00:08:24,610 全部开始形成预期共振 241 00:08:24,610 --> 00:08:26,110 但是这里要注意的是 242 00:08:26,110 --> 00:08:28,490 英特尔的波动率已经开始极端放大 243 00:08:28,490 --> 00:08:31,839 短线已经进入到了情绪主升加速上涨阶段 244 00:08:31,839 --> 00:08:33,919 这种阶段的话它的上涨很猛 245 00:08:33,919 --> 00:08:35,519 但是回撤也非常恐怖 246 00:08:35,519 --> 00:08:37,450 所以咱们不要轻易追高 247 00:08:37,450 --> 00:08:40,750 关键的短期支撑是在108~105 248 00:08:40,750 --> 00:08:42,350 强支撑是100美元 249 00:08:42,350 --> 00:08:44,349 压力是在120美元附近 250 00:08:44,349 --> 00:08:46,629 那如果后续放量突破120 251 00:08:46,629 --> 00:08:48,068 可能会进入加速段 252 00:08:48,068 --> 00:08:49,808 但是如果量能衰减 253 00:08:49,808 --> 00:08:51,679 高位回撤也会非常剧烈 254 00:08:51,679 --> 00:08:54,120 所以对于这个票已经上车的朋友们 255 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:55,779 只要没有跌破关键位置 256 00:08:55,779 --> 00:08:58,100 可以继续拿着享受利润的奔跑 257 00:08:58,100 --> 00:09:00,379 而如果没有上车又想追高的 258 00:09:00,379 --> 00:09:04,000 我建议大家先耐心等待一下这个位置追高进去 259 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:05,340 一旦出现稍微的回调 260 00:09:05,340 --> 00:09:07,370 很影响大家的持股心态的 261 00:09:07,370 --> 00:09:08,389 那GLOW 262 00:09:08,389 --> 00:09:10,710 也是朋友们问的比较多的一只个股啊 263 00:09:10,710 --> 00:09:14,190 那么康宁现在最大的逻辑就是AI光纤需求爆发 264 00:09:14,190 --> 00:09:17,590 meta的数据中心扩张正在推升光纤通信的需求 265 00:09:17,590 --> 00:09:21,828 目前GI5W是属于AI基础设施低估值部长逻辑 266 00:09:21,828 --> 00:09:23,149 从技术面上来看 267 00:09:23,149 --> 00:09:24,489 它的趋势非常强 268 00:09:24,489 --> 00:09:25,908 但是涨幅已经巨大 269 00:09:25,908 --> 00:09:27,450 开始进入高位震荡 270 00:09:27,450 --> 00:09:30,210 关键短期支撑是在175美元附近 271 00:09:30,210 --> 00:09:32,750 而比较强的支撑是在165附近 272 00:09:32,750 --> 00:09:35,769 短期上方压力在200美元的整数关口 273 00:09:35,769 --> 00:09:38,769 不过目前这个位置它的分歧也是比较大了 274 00:09:38,769 --> 00:09:40,909 一部分是之前的获利盘了结 275 00:09:40,909 --> 00:09:43,659 另一部分是市场的资金越来越抱团 276 00:09:43,659 --> 00:09:45,340 进入到一个加速筛选 277 00:09:45,340 --> 00:09:46,620 加速淘汰的阶段 278 00:09:46,620 --> 00:09:48,820 所以短线不建议大家追高 279 00:09:48,820 --> 00:09:50,059 第六家公司的话 280 00:09:50,059 --> 00:09:51,399 我们来讲讲麦威尔 281 00:09:51,399 --> 00:09:53,299 迈威尔一波强势上涨之后 282 00:09:53,299 --> 00:09:55,509 目前处于一个高位震荡的状态 283 00:09:55,509 --> 00:09:58,570 不过市场目前对于这个票的争议其实非常大 284 00:09:58,570 --> 00:10:01,490 因为他虽然吃到了AI网络和AC的红利 285 00:10:01,490 --> 00:10:02,980 但是竞争也在加剧 286 00:10:02,980 --> 00:10:04,940 包括博通的竞争客户资源 287 00:10:04,940 --> 00:10:06,139 英伟达的生态挤压 288 00:10:06,139 --> 00:10:07,779 都在影响市场的预期 289 00:10:07,779 --> 00:10:10,980 但是短期资金依然在交易AI网络升级 290 00:10:10,980 --> 00:10:12,220 那技术面上的话 291 00:10:12,220 --> 00:10:13,279 它的波动率极高 292 00:10:13,279 --> 00:10:15,039 属于一个高倍大的AI票 293 00:10:15,039 --> 00:10:17,600 关键的短线支撑是在158到 294 00:10:17,600 --> 00:10:18,779 152附近 295 00:10:18,779 --> 00:10:20,759 强支撑在145附近 296 00:10:20,759 --> 00:10:23,149 而上方的压力是在180附近 297 00:10:23,149 --> 00:10:26,070 180附近会是一个非常强的心理压力区 298 00:10:26,070 --> 00:10:27,909 大家需要着重关注这个点位 299 00:10:27,909 --> 00:10:29,190 第七家公司的话 300 00:10:29,190 --> 00:10:30,828 我们来讲讲LITE 301 00:10:30,828 --> 00:10:32,548 LATE的核心逻辑 302 00:10:32,548 --> 00:10:34,940 其实就是光模块和高速光连接 303 00:10:34,940 --> 00:10:36,639 现代AI数据中心升级 304 00:10:36,639 --> 00:10:38,340 最受益的不仅是GPU 305 00:10:38,340 --> 00:10:39,519 还有数据传输 306 00:10:39,519 --> 00:10:42,129 而LITE就是典型的受益者 307 00:10:42,129 --> 00:10:43,649 现在市场上有一句话 308 00:10:43,649 --> 00:10:45,830 很能反映这个股的火热程度 309 00:10:45,830 --> 00:10:47,289 你不能光站在那里 310 00:10:47,289 --> 00:10:48,340 要站在光里 311 00:10:48,340 --> 00:10:50,419 那这个票单从技术面上来看 312 00:10:50,419 --> 00:10:52,480 目前已经进入了趋势主升浪 313 00:10:52,480 --> 00:10:55,100 但是要注意光模块板块波动极大 314 00:10:55,100 --> 00:10:57,360 关键短期支撑788附近 315 00:10:57,360 --> 00:10:59,589 下方强支撑650附近 316 00:10:59,589 --> 00:11:01,308 这个票的波动特别大 317 00:11:01,308 --> 00:11:02,788 所以朋友们即使看好 318 00:11:02,788 --> 00:11:04,580 也不建议全仓买进去 319 00:11:04,580 --> 00:11:07,299 那上方的压力位是在整数关口1000美元 320 00:11:07,299 --> 00:11:09,820 并且我觉得这个位置很快就要到了 321 00:11:09,820 --> 00:11:10,980 最后一家公司的话 322 00:11:10,980 --> 00:11:12,779 我们来讲讲COHR 323 00:11:12,779 --> 00:11:13,720 COI计划 324 00:11:13,720 --> 00:11:16,299 现在已经逐渐被市场重新定义为AI 325 00:11:16,299 --> 00:11:17,659 光通信核心公司 326 00:11:17,659 --> 00:11:20,539 尤其是800G和1.6T升级周期之后 327 00:11:20,539 --> 00:11:22,849 市场对于它的定价更上一层楼 328 00:11:22,849 --> 00:11:24,649 那么单从技术面上来看 329 00:11:24,649 --> 00:11:27,788 COHR目前是明显强于很多传统半导体 330 00:11:27,788 --> 00:11:28,889 但是问题在于 331 00:11:28,889 --> 00:11:31,578 它的涨幅已经开始脱离基本面增速 332 00:11:31,578 --> 00:11:34,129 所以高位一定会有剧烈的洗盘 333 00:11:34,129 --> 00:11:36,850 朋友们可以多加留意这几个关键点位 334 00:11:36,850 --> 00:11:39,210 短期关键支撑295附近 335 00:11:39,210 --> 00:11:40,710 如果这个位置撑不住 336 00:11:40,710 --> 00:11:43,190 最后还要下调到220美元附近 337 00:11:43,190 --> 00:11:45,690 所以建议朋友们对于这种高波动的票 338 00:11:45,690 --> 00:11:47,110 一定要保持耐心 339 00:11:47,110 --> 00:11:50,259 上方的阻力位是在新高360美元附近 340 00:11:50,259 --> 00:11:52,379 那么通过以上的分析可以看到 341 00:11:52,379 --> 00:11:54,460 现在整个美股其实已经进入一个 342 00:11:54,460 --> 00:11:55,750 非常关键的阶段 343 00:11:55,750 --> 00:11:57,649 市场表面上一片繁荣 344 00:11:57,649 --> 00:11:59,750 但背后其实是AI抱团极致化 345 00:11:59,750 --> 00:12:00,929 流动性高度集中 346 00:12:00,929 --> 00:12:02,090 指数结构失衡 347 00:12:02,090 --> 00:12:03,629 高估值开始脆弱化 348 00:12:03,629 --> 00:12:06,950 也就意味着繁荣的背后也同时酝酿着风险 349 00:12:06,950 --> 00:12:10,029 所以接下来真正重要的不是还能不能涨 350 00:12:10,029 --> 00:12:12,730 而是谁能在下一次波动里活下来 351 00:12:12,730 --> 00:12:13,629 记住一句话 352 00:12:13,629 --> 00:12:16,129 牛市后半段最危险的永远不是利空 353 00:12:16,129 --> 00:12:18,740 而是所有人都觉得不会跌的时候 354 00:12:18,740 --> 00:12:22,019 那如果你想要在接下来的震荡期里守住财富 355 00:12:22,019 --> 00:12:23,919 欢迎点击评论区的置顶链接 356 00:12:23,919 --> 00:12:25,620 加入我们的交流俱乐部 357 00:12:25,620 --> 00:12:28,220 我会在那里分享更详细的调仓细节 358 00:12:28,220 --> 00:12:29,799 和具体的避险策略 359 00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:32,720 我们可以一起来抵御即将到来的风险啊 360 00:12:32,720 --> 00:12:33,419 我是ruby 361 00:12:33,419 --> 00:12:35,779 如果你喜欢这种真正从宏观产业 362 00:12:35,779 --> 00:12:38,059 资金技术面一起拆解市场的内容 363 00:12:38,059 --> 00:12:39,240 记得点赞关注 364 00:12:39,240 --> 00:12:40,100 咱们一期一会 365 00:12:40,100 --> 00:12:41,240 下期再见拜
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